2018-19 Offseason News, Rumors, Trades

AMcGhie

Set Adrift on Memory Bliss
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2006
2,979
Portland, OR
The Dodgers have extended Clayton Kershaw’s opt out deadline to Friday at 4pm.
As I understand it they mutually agreed to extend the deadline. That means to me that they recognize that they're making good progress on a deal, but recognize that it might take an extra 24 hours to hammer out the other important details.
 

Rough Carrigan

reasons within Reason
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
One of the things I find very interesting about guys' pages at baseball-reference. com are the salaries. Look up most any player who was good for several or even just a few years in the 1950's or 1960's, for example. You see a whole lot of guys who get paid BIG money for the time, on short term deals well after it's clear they've lost it. Players used to get paid, sort of irrationally, for what they'd done not what they were going to do.

Is that Kershaw now? His fastball dropped a couple mph this past year to probably below average. He still had a good year though with some DL time off. Would you want to put $30 million per year out there on a bet that he won't continue to get hurt and won't lose any more velocity?

Aren't there a lot of parallels to the Cardinals and Albert Pujols situation where the Cards could see that Alberts OPS had gone down something like 4 straight years and now he was a certain age annnnnnd they had to at least look like they were seriously trying to keep him. But did they really want to re-sign him?
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
46,051
One of the things I find very interesting about guys' pages at baseball-reference. com are the salaries. Look up most any player who was good for several or even just a few years in the 1950's or 1960's, for example. You see a whole lot of guys who get paid BIG money for the time, on short term deals well after it's clear they've lost it. Players used to get paid, sort of irrationally, for what they'd done not what they were going to do.

Is that Kershaw now? His fastball dropped a couple mph this past year to probably below average. He still had a good year though with some DL time off. Would you want to put $30 million per year out there on a bet that he won't continue to get hurt and won't lose any more velocity?

Aren't there a lot of parallels to the Cardinals and Albert Pujols situation where the Cards could see that Alberts OPS had gone down something like 4 straight years and now he was a certain age annnnnnd they had to at least look like they were seriously trying to keep him. But did they really want to re-sign him?
Yeah, this is why I don't think he hits the market, he is worth more to LA than he is to anyone else and vice-versa. Since they are already on the hook for 2/70, an extension to 4/110 or 4/120 probably makes sense both ways, Kershaw's number comes down a bit and he gets two more years.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
19,027
the Cubs have decided to keep Hamels for another year with his club option, and dumped Drew Smyly to the Rangers to make room.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
39,820
deep inside Guido territory

Faced with market constraints, the Indians will listen to trade offers for some of their veteran players this winter, according to sources. Kluber, Carrasco, Encarnacion, Gomes, etc. Lindor, Ramirez will definitely be held.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
39,820
deep inside Guido territory

Sources: The Los Angeles Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw are nearing a deal that would keep him in Los Angeles. One source said it's "very close." The expectation was that he would stay, and as the 4 p.m. ET deadline nears, it's looking like a reality.
 

BoSox Rule

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,842
I know his velocity is down but I’m genuinely shocked it’s only an additional year. That’s really weird.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
46,051
I know his velocity is down but I’m genuinely shocked it’s only an additional year. That’s really weird.
He's had a lot of back problems too and missed time each of the last three seasons, averaging around 160 innings.
 

BoSox Rule

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,842
$4m per year in GS incentives. $1m at 24, 26, 28, and 30. $1.5m to win the Cy Young, $500k for second or third. Probably could have gotten more years elsewhere, more AAV in Los Angeles. Good deal for both sides, clearly wanted to remain a Dodger.
 

brandonchristensen

mad photochops
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
24,467
I’m glad he stuck with them.

I like career players like that. Will make him be remembered for generations.
 

gedman211

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2016
2,676
The diminished velo is a red flag to me. Kershaw doesn't look like the same guy. Maybe the cheese comes back, maybe it doesn't. $93 Million is a lot to risk. I'm curious to know what kind of money other clubs would have put up had he opted out. While he's still young, he has thrown 2250 IP regular season and post combined.
 
Last edited:

Apisith

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2007
2,348
Bangkok
Even with a 90MPH fastball, his ERA was below 3 and his FIP was still very good. Clearly even with diminished stuff, he’s an ace. I think it’s a really safe contract for the Dodgers given that he’s showed that he can still be an ace with diminished stuff.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
27,996
The diminished velo is a red flag to me. Kershaw doesn't look like the same guy. Maybe the cheese comes back, maybe it doesn't. $93 Million is a lot to risk. I'm curious to know what kind of money other clubs would have put up had he opted out. While he's still young, he has thrown 2250 IP regular season and post combined.
But the Dodgers aren’t risking that. The last two years and $65 MM on the original deal are replaced, so the additional investment in him is $28 MM. From the sounds of this, he wasn’t going anywhere and I can’t say that I blame him. Seems like a win-win.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25158754/clayton-kershaw-agrees-3-year-93-million-deal-stay-dodgers
 

gedman211

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2016
2,676
But the Dodgers aren’t risking that. The last two years and $65 MM on the original deal are replaced, so the additional investment in him is $28 MM. From the sounds of this, he wasn’t going anywhere and I can’t say that I blame him. Seems like a win-win.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25158754/clayton-kershaw-agrees-3-year-93-million-deal-stay-dodgers
I mean, if he wasn't going anywhere, then he had no leverage, and they could have just kept him for the 2 years on his original contract and resigned him for whatever's he's worth then. Which will most likely be less than 28 mil per year. But I've always loved watching him, so hopefully his body holds up and he regains his dominance. But I fear we're looking at mid-2000s Pedro.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
10,882
Maine
I mean, if he wasn't going anywhere, then he had no leverage, and they could have just kept him for the 2 years on his original contract and resigned him for whatever's he's worth then. Which will most likely be less than 28 mil per year. But I've always loved watching him, so hopefully his body holds up and he regains his dominance. But I fear we're looking at mid-2000s Pedro.
No leverage except for that whole opt-out thing that prompted the re-negotiation in the first place. His leverage was that he could walk away and sign somewhere else.
 

Ford Frick's Asterisk

Member
SoSH Member
May 5, 2017
564
The 7 free agents who received qualifying offers:

Dallas Keuchel, L
Patrick Corbin, LHP Ari
AJ Pollock, CF, Ari
Yasmani Grandal, C, LAN
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP, LAN
Bryce Harper, RF, Was
Craig Kimbrel, RP, Bos

Does any of this change the FA landscape? If you go with 1 WAR = $8 million, all these guys were worth the $17.9M qualifying offer this past season except for Harper, but he expects to sign somewhere for the next decade, so obviously he's not accepting it. Kimbrel's value was right at the QO, but as the top closer on the market, he can probably expect to get something around that amount for at least 3 years. Ryu needed an unsustainably good half season to reach that value. With his long injury history, I'd think he has the worst free agency outlook of this group. However, if he feels a multi-year deal is a safe bet, he should probably go that route, even if it's a bit less annually. If he would take the QO, but then fail to pitch 150 innings for a 5th year in a row, he'd be unlikely to ever approach $18M/yr again.

*
 

gedman211

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2016
2,676
No leverage except for that whole opt-out thing that prompted the re-negotiation in the first place. His leverage was that he could walk away and sign somewhere else.
walk away to where? Who's paying him anything close to 34 mil?
 
Last edited:

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
17,742
Portsmouth, NH
walk away to where? Who's paying him anything close to 32 mil?
Unless he expects to retire at 33, it’s total package, not aav, that he’d most likely be concerned about. I’m pretty sure he could have gotten more than $93M. To your direct question I’m also pretty sure the Yankees would have given him close to that. But, as fallback, there’s always one dumb team or GM trying to save his job out there.

He most certainly had the leverage and I don’t find it at all weird to be surprised by him only getting one year tacked on. He was still worth well that much his last three truncated seasons if you put any merit into what on WAR costs now.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
46,051
Unless he expects to retire at 33, it’s total package, not aav, that he’d most likely be concerned about.
Shouldn't this be reversed? If he's not going to retire at 33, then he can get another contract after this so AAV should be more important.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
17,742
Portsmouth, NH
Shouldn't this be reversed? If he's not going to retire at 33, then he can get another contract after this so AAV should be more important.
Not if he burns out or has a career ending injury. Grab the most money you can while you can, when you can. If he left, let’s say, 5/$140 (which is still way low imo) on the table elsewhere and then his back gives out or he goes Lincecum, he’s left a lot of money in the table.

I don’t think he’s planning on that, but I also think he could have gotten a better total package elsewhere. He’s not going to get another big deal in his career, I would have imagined he’d grab the biggest one he could and I don’t think that’s a rare view of it. I’m not sure how many people weren’t surprised he only extended for one year.
 

nattysez

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2010
3,828
Cubs announced today that Maddon's not getting extended this off-season. Cubs Twitter thinks Theo has his eye on Girardi.
 

Tokyo Sox

Baka Gaijin
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 16, 2006
3,892
There
LHP Yusei Kikuchi of the Seibu Lions will be posted this offseason and has hired Boras as his agent. He's been the most heavily scouted Japanese pitcher this year, so this is no surprise. He's 27, and looks likely to slot in as a decent #3 or so if he stays healthy.

A reminder on the current posting system rules (clipped from the article):
The current system, which took effect after Ohtani signed with the Angels last offseason, is similar in that the player gets 30 days to negotiate with any and all MLB teams. The release fee is now a percentage of his contract, however. Here are the release fee rates:
  • Contract worth $25 million or less: 20 percent of total guarantee
  • Contract worth $25 million and $50 million: $5 million plus 17.5 percent of amount over $25 million
  • Contract worth $50 million: $9.375 million plus 15 percent of amount over $50 million
Ohtani was only able to sign a minor league contract last offseason because his age made him subject to MLB's international spending restrictions. That severely limited his earning potential. (The Angels paid Ohtani a $2.315 million bonus.) That does not apply to Kikuchi. He can sign a guaranteed MLB contract of any size.

Also, under the current system players can only be posted between November 1 and December 5, with the full 30-day negotiating window to follow. That ensures the entire process will not drag out until later in the offseason and hold up the rest of free agency. Tanaka, for example, was not posted until January.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
19,027
as mentioned, Haniger, Diaz and Gonzalez are off-limits.

Leake is fungible... Segura I guess still has value, yes.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
46,051
Farhan Zaidi leaves the Dodgers front office to take the Giants GM job, that seems like a really big deal with him going to their main rivals.
 

jungleboy

lurker
Mar 1, 2016
134
Farhan Zaidi leaves the Dodgers front office to take the Giants GM job, that seems like a really big deal with him going to their main rivals.
To get around the fancy titles which have caused confusion around here before, Zaidi has essentially left a glorified assistant GM job for a GM job. (Officially, he left his job as the Dodgers' general manager under their President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman to become the Giants' President of Baseball Operations.)
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
27,996
Harper rejected an “aggressive” offer from the Nats late in the season that included no opt-outs but was less than $400 million.
Boras signaled a switch to first base in a radio interview with mlb radio. No surprise. His outfield defense has deteriorated markedly, his legs are not what they were.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
3,622
Boston, MA
Boras signaled a switch to first base in a radio interview with mlb radio. No surprise. His outfield defense has deteriorated markedly, his legs are not what they were.
Is anyone actually going to pay $400 million for a decade of a first baseman whose offense has been boom and bust? Especially when it's an admission of physical decline at just 26 years old? When the final contract is signed, I think he's going to regret turning down the $300 million guarantee from Washington unless he has no intention of staying there.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
27,996
I wouldn’t, but all it takes is one, recognizing that teams seem to be getting smarter.

Effectively, I think the Nats have made their first, best and last offer. They are not going to wait around and play the Boras game of pushing this well into the offseason.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
46,051
I wouldn’t, but all it takes is one, recognizing that teams seem to be getting smarter.

Effectively, I think the Nats have made their first, best and last offer. They are not going to wait around and play the Boras game of pushing this well into the offseason.
I think it was maybe a PR move that they knew he wouldn't accept, I bet if he circles back to them they will offer less. They have Soto, Robles and Eaton in the OF, Ryan Zimmerman at 1B for $18M for one more year, and no DH in the NL.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
27,996
I think it was maybe a PR move that they knew he wouldn't accept, I bet if he circles back to them they will offer less. They have Soto, Robles and Eaton in the OF, Ryan Zimmerman at 1B for $18M for one more year, and no DH in the NL.
Impossible to prove, but I think they want him. He’s a foundational player for this franchise. Assuming he doesn’t transition to 1B next year, it would free them to trade Robles for other needs, esp SP.

But Rizzo is not going to play the Boras game. So unless he is undercut by ownership, we’re probably done.

I do think they leaked the offer, a quite respectable offer, for PR purposes.

I am happy the Red Sox have neither the need nor the resources to fish in these waters.

Any chance Cashman would try to spin off Stanton and go after Harper?
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
17,742
Portsmouth, NH
Impossible to prove, but I think they want him. He’s a foundational player for this franchise. Assuming he doesn’t transition to 1B next year, it would free them to trade Robles for other needs, esp SP.

But Rizzo is not going to play the Boras game. So unless he is undercut by ownership, we’re probably done.

I do think they leaked the offer, a quite respectable offer, for PR purposes.

I am happy the Red Sox have neither the need nor the resources to fish in these waters.

Any chance Cashman would try to spin off Stanton and go after Harper?
Is there a GM that is more in Boras’ pocket than Rizzo? I think he’s a very good GM but there a pretty long track record there.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
46,051
Any chance Cashman would try to spin off Stanton and go after Harper?
I mean, it's possible, the Dodgers have a ton of catching depth and NY could really use one or two of those guys, but Stanton is signed with an $22M/year AAV and is a better defensive OF than Harper by all accounts. NY could certainly use a big lefty bat in the middle of all of those righties but that seems like a risky upgrade for a lot more money (let's assume it is 10/$350 for the sake of this discussion and that might be low).
 

adam42381

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 14, 2006
4,988
Kernersville, NC
I mean, it's possible, the Dodgers have a ton of catching depth and NY could really use one or two of those guys, but Stanton is signed with an $22M/year AAV and is a better defensive OF than Harper by all accounts. NY could certainly use a big lefty bat in the middle of all of those righties but that seems like a risky upgrade for a lot more money (let's assume it is 10/$350 for the sake of this discussion and that might be low).
Is the bolded true? I thought Stanton was generally considered to be a butcher in the field. I’m terrible at looking up advanced defensive stats/ratings, so I may be way off base here.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
46,051
Is the bolded true? I thought Stanton was generally considered to be a butcher in the field. I’m terrible at looking up advanced defensive stats/ratings, so I may be way off base here.
No, he's always been solid to good and had surprisingly good UZR numbers last year, look at the UZR and UZR/150 numbers here:

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4949&position=OF#fieldingadvanced

This is why Cashman chose him over going after JD Martinez last year, he thought they were comparable offensively and Stanton was a much better OF option.

Also Harper was horrendous this past season by defensive metrics, maybe a bit of a fluke but pretty scary if you are the team signing the $300-$400M deal.
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
2,423
It isnt Rizzo that is in Boras' "pocket" but the ownership team. I would not be surprised to see him going straight to the LErners to keep the Nats in it all offseason
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
27,996
It isnt Rizzo that is in Boras' "pocket" but the ownership team. I would not be surprised to see him going straight to the LErners to keep the Nats in it all offseason
This is true.

For example, a couple of years ago Rizzo was pleading for more $ to bolster the bullpen. The Lerner’s answer — “so much and no more; we don’t have the money for what you want.”

Out of the blue, Boras gets to the Lerners and Matt Wieters winds up with $21 million for two years. Rizzo was not pleased, but he’s a pro so he said nothing. Fans here were apoplectic.

That’s typical. I’m a little surprised Rizzo re-upped here. I am not surprised he did so at a high pay rate but short years.

Rizzo certainly has made mistakes but he’s very good. He’s particularly good at trying to make things work. When weird stuff happens here, look to the owner’s box.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
39,820
deep inside Guido territory

Sources: The Mariners are working to finish a trade that would send catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia to the Rays in exchange for outfielder Mallex Smith. Deal could be finalized in the next day.
 

adam42381

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 14, 2006
4,988
Kernersville, NC
No, he's always been solid to good and had surprisingly good UZR numbers last year, look at the UZR and UZR/150 numbers here:

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4949&position=OF#fieldingadvanced

This is why Cashman chose him over going after JD Martinez last year, he thought they were comparable offensively and Stanton was a much better OF option.

Also Harper was horrendous this past season by defensive metrics, maybe a bit of a fluke but pretty scary if you are the team signing the $300-$400M deal.
Thanks for the info. I had no idea.
 

glennhoffmania

but still failing
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 25, 2005
8,397,302
NY
Harper rejected an “aggressive” offer from the Nats late in the season that included no opt-outs but was less than $400 million.
CBS thinks it was more like $350m.

It's not a surprise that the Nationals would try to make sure Harper didn't hit free agency, but this is still pretty interesting. An aggressive offer here likely tops Giancarlo Stanton's record $325 million contract, so the hunch is the Nats went with something like 10 years and $350 million.