With Brooklyn looking like a lock to have the worst record, selecting 4th is worst and most likely (35.7%) scenario, so I'm keeping a close eye on the guys I like in the top 4- Fultz, Ball, Jackson and Smith Jr. Fultz has missed a couple of games with a sore knee. I think he's clearly the #1, with a significant gap between the next tier, and there's not much other than injury that could change that. The next three are really fluid for me, and I'm sure I'll switch them around up until draft day. In the past two weeks, Lonzo and Jackson have had some monster games including wins against top 10 opponents while NC State continues to get smoked by anyone they play, and Smith Jr. has struggled a bit. More troubling for Smith Jr., was this report after the blowout to Florida State:
NC State was down 25 at the time and Smith was getting trapped all game. That team is a dumpster fire, and unlike Washington, they actually had a decent outlook going into the season. Gottfried could get the ax any day, and Yurtseven has been a disappointment. So its easy to write off as a moment of frustration by a 19 year old, but it does play into the pre-existing narrative that his effort level and decision making are a concern. Watching him barely go through the motions on defense is painful. His stats speak for themselves, but he has some character red flags to consider, especially when compared to Jackson and Ball.
Lonzo factoid of the day: He's one of six major conference players averaging over 15 ppg while shooting over 65 TS%. He's at 15.4/67.6%. There's also Jeffrey Carroll, Markannen (15.2, 65.2%), and Kennard (20, 66.5%). The other two guys are his teammates, Leaf (16.7/67%) and Alford (15.8/66.5%). Obviously, Leaf is a freshman, but FWIW, Alford scored at about the same rate last year, but his eFG (I'll use this instead of TS% because, for as much as I love his intangibles, I don't think Ball has much of an impact on his teammates' FT%) has gone from 47.4% last year to 63.5% playing with Ball and company. How much of that you want to attribute to Ball directly is going to play a big part in how you rate him.