Damn, sometimes I hate this app.I, who have nothing
I will add though. I have doubts whether Brissett will ever be a good starting QB in this league, so if they trade Jimmy I think they need to still look for Brady's replacement down the road.
Damn, sometimes I hate this app.I, who have nothing
Any team acquiring him has him for one year and about a million bucks. They can let him play that out and worry about franchising him end of year if he plays well or they can leverage that year to get a much more friendly long term deal than guaranteeing $50M. If he doesn't pan it, it cost them the pick(s), yes, but if you need a qb, want one this season and evaluate him highly, it's still better than using a top pick on the dredge coming out this year that you'd have to guarantee $15-$18M.Plus $50M or so in guarantees...
If you're right about Brissett - and I wonder what you base that on - they have to look for Brady's replacement either way. Short of Brady retiring/completely shitting the bed/suffering career ending injury next season, JG is gone at end of year. One thing they absolutely will not do is franchise him to sit on the bench behind an effective TB12 in case they need him next the year at the tune of $22M+. That's just not how this organization operates with regards to roster or salary cap.Damn, sometimes I hate this app.
I will add though. I have doubts whether Brissett will ever be a good starting QB in this league, so if they trade Jimmy I think they need to still look for Brady's replacement down the road.
Neither would I. If that's his value, I'm keeping him.I wouldn't do any of those deals if I'm the Pats.
I wouldn't either, but the Browns' offer is fairly close. #12 alone probably overvalues him, so we either need to send a player over or do some pick-swapping to even things out. I'd do #12 and #52 for #32 and Jimmy G. Maybe #65 instead of #52. But in that ballpark.I wouldn't do any of those deals if I'm the Pats.
This might be the best nugget of this entire storyOh Browns...
@OptimumScouting
In 2014, #Browns coaches wanted Jimmy Garoppolo over Manziel. That Offensive Staff: #49ers HC Shanahan (then OC) + #Bears OC Loggains (QBC).
It's astonishing how jinxed they've been, and sad that a full generation has no clue about respectable Browns football and a proud tradition. Heartbreaking yes -- the fumble, the drive - but they were solid and one of the centerpieces of the League for a long time. They got their team back, but it's blend of the worst years of Sullivan/Kiam for them ever since. Even though they've had some solid guys rotate through there in key positions.Oh Browns...
@OptimumScouting
In 2014, #Browns coaches wanted Jimmy Garoppolo over Manziel. That Offensive Staff: #49ers HC Shanahan (then OC) + #Bears OC Loggains (QBC).
I get the sense that Lombardi really loves Jimmy G.On recent Simmons podcast, Lombardi posits that a.) NFW is Garropolo worth less than the Browns #12 pick, and b.) he doesn't expect he will be traded.
You're really going out on a limb with that claim.I get the sense that Lombardi really loves Jimmy G.
I will venture out on a limb (as a Pats fan) and say the odds of TB12 winning another SB as a starting QB are higher than Jimmy G ever winning won as a starter.
To me that should pretty much end the debate about trade or no trade. I am not saying move Jimmy for a 4th round pick, but if they can get a first and a mid round this year plus maybe a high mid round next year the Pats should probably move him.
It is incredibly difficult to win in the NFL and want Brady and BB have done is not the norm.
Jimmy G is not Steve Young nor is he Aaron Rodgers. He is a really good QB that would prevent the Pats from becoming the Browns when Brady retires.
The odds of Jimmy leading the Pats to another 5 titles after Brady are incredibly small I would think.
That was kind of the point. It is obvious that this level of success won't last forever so it would probably be best to maximize the current window.You're really going out on a limb with that claim.
I was just giving you shit opportunistically. I generally agree with your broader post.That was kind of the point. It is obvious that this level of success won't last forever so it would probably be best to maximize the current window.
I don't get why Lombardi keeps proclaiming how bad it would be to trade Jimmy.
He should know from working with BB that it seems like BB will just maximize the value and do what is best for the Pats.
Edit - which could mean keeping Jimmy if they only get lowball offers.
And I did a great job providing that opportunity.I was just giving you shit opportunistically. I generally agree with your broader post.
I was thinking about this the other day and I decided it would only be possible if there was a very firm (and relatively quick) agreement with Brady about him retiring (or leaving the Pats) after 2019 at the latest.Eh if not trading Jimmy means finding a way to sign him for another few years and have the Pats still be in the playoff hunt for the foreseeable future after Brady retires, I am good with keeping him. But not sure how they would structure such a contract
Yeah, I agree with this line of thinking.I was thinking about this the other day and I decided it would only be possible if there was a very firm (and relatively quick) agreement with Brady about him retiring (or leaving the Pats) after 2019 at the latest.
In that case, the offer you make to Jimmy is basically this:
We give you a three year fully guaranteed deal for 3/33M that runs 2017-2019 and replaces your current contract. In total value, this will be close to what you'd make over that window if you played out 2017 with the Pats for peanuts and then left for another team where you'd get a big contract. The disadvantage is that you will probably have to wait two extra years to become a starter, although if you can beat out a declining Brady for the job in 2018 or 2019 that is fair game. The advantage is that you get financial security now - rather than taking the risk of either getting hurt in 2017 or getting an opportunity to play and then stinking up the joint, hurting his future value as a FA - and you get to stay with a winning franchise that knows how to make use of your talents (eventually) rather than potentially going to a trainwreck franchise like the Browns or 49ers. Would Jimmy do that? Maybe.
If the cap hits were evenly distributed over this deal for JG, the total Brady+JG cap expenditures for the three years would be 25M, 33M, 33M. That sounds like a lot but its actually pretty doable, particularly given the Patriots' current cap situation for 2017 and likely ability to roll a substantial amount of cap space over into 2018.
How would we know? The number of red flags in Jimmy G's performance - between multiple preseasons, a few odd drives in blowouts, and 6 quarters of meaningful action - are limited to one: Kiko Alonso slammed him to the ground and damaged his AC joint. He says he's all better now. The film study I posted above shows him doing above-average NFL QB things, but also not being perfect and having some room to grow in terms of decision-making and reading the defense. He has not yet shown himself unlikely to develop the skills necessary to be a career-long starter, and may very well be on his way to having the skills of a star QB. That assessment (of a 25-year-old, mind you) ought to give a near-majority of NFL GMs raging boners for the guy.Jimmy G is not Steve Young nor is he Aaron Rodgers. He is a really good QB that would prevent the Pats from becoming the Browns when Brady retires.
I never said he wasn't good. I just said I don't think he is a hall of fame level based on 6 quarters last year.How would we know? The number of red flags in Jimmy G's performance - between multiple preseasons, a few odd drives in blowouts, and 6 quarters of meaningful action - are limited to one: Kiko Alonso slammed him to the ground and damaged his AC joint. He says he's all better now. The film study I posted above shows him doing above-average NFL QB things, but also not being perfect and having some room to grow in terms of decision-making and reading the defense. He has not yet shown himself unlikely to develop the skills necessary to be a career-long starter, and may very well be on his way to having the skills of a star QB. That assessment (of a 25-year-old, mind you) ought to give a near-majority of NFL GMs raging boners for the guy.
Again with the going out on a limb. (and we agree as far as what actions the organization should take)I never said he wasn't good. I just said I don't think he is a hall of fame level based on 6 quarters last year.
People say that Aaron Rodgers is the best thrower of the football ever. I don't think Jimmy G will be that.
We can't know for sure until careers are done.
Good point. I think that is where I differ on most people's view of Jimmy. I don't think he can carry a team to a Super Bowl.Again with the going out on a limb. (and we agree as far as what actions the organization should take)
My point is that even with the limited amount of information available on him, the range of probable outcomes for his skill level is still centered quite high. More time spent playing does not necessarily translate into a higher expected performance level, it just narrows the error bars. You'd probably prefer Jimmy G (based on what we know of him now) over Osweiler from a year ago (based on what we knew about him from the 2015 season), even though the latter had more reps and we were more sure what kind of player he was.
What we've seen doesn't eliminate the possibility of Garoppolo being an elite NFL QB - not Rodgers, but someone capable of carrying a team to a super bowl. He doesn't have to have a high probability of being all-pro. The standard for trade partners considering big offers is, is he a better bet of being an all-pro than a high 1st-round pick in most years would be? I'd say yes, based on what we've seen.
This is where I am.Jimmy G wants to play football. He wants to be a starting NFL QB. He has said so. He's not going to sign a long term deal to be Brady's backup for SIX YEARS TOTAL (including these first 3). He'll either be dealt this Spring or franchised-then-dealt next Spring or walk away. My expectation is that he will be dealt for a first rounder, possibly including the Pats #32, sometime in the next six weeks.
Edit clarity and typos, as always
This is where I am too. He is a good young QB with the potential to be really good/great, and he will want an opportunity to prove that sooner rather than later.This is where I am.
He's simply not going to sign anything here if he knows Brady is here for more than 1 more season. He turns 26 next season, the guy is not going to wait to get his chance until he's 27/28 years old.
He may be here next year, but that's gonna be it outside of some surprise announcement by Brady.
No, he plays behind THE greatest ever! I'm ready for the honorable discharge of Jimmy G. I want the asset(s) that would come in a trade but I also really want to see him start somewhere (in the NFC). He looked really damn good in the short time he got this year and I think he really does have Top 10 QB potential.This is where I am too. He is a good young QB with the potential to be really good/great, and he will want an opportunity to prove that sooner rather than later.
He has earned that right, but unfortunately he plays behind one of the greatest ever that also happens to still be better than he is.
My bad. Good catch. You are correct.No, he plays behind THE greatest ever! I'm ready for the honorable discharge of Jimmy G. I want the asset(s) that would come in a trade but I also really want to see him start somewhere (in the NFC). He looked really damn good in the short time he got this year and I think he really does have Top 10 QB potential.
Oh sure, NOW you want the assets. Just remember: You won't be able to trade them for LeBron or DurantNo, he plays behind THE greatest ever! I'm ready for the honorable discharge of Jimmy G. I want the asset(s) that would come in a trade but I also really want to see him start somewhere (in the NFC). He looked really damn good in the short time he got this year and I think he really does have Top 10 QB potential.
That would be a big overpay. At least with Jimmy G the Niners could still dream big. The league knows what Cousins is.Some talk that the Niners are gonna make an offer for Kirk Cousins where'd they'd get Cousins and the #17 pick in exchange for the #2 overall pick, a #1 next year, and some other flotsam and jetsam.
I agree that Cousins is probably the best QB option. It was more the rumored deal that I thought was bad.The error bars on Cousins' performance level are also far smaller than those on Jimmy G. You may "know what Cousins is", in that sense, but what he is isn't shit. Last year he was #7 in passer rating, #4 in ANY/A (behind only Ryan, Brady and Prescott), #3 in passing yards, etc etc. He throws more interceptions than the league's truly elite QBs but there are probably a lot of people who'd rather have him than Roethlisberger, Brees or Romo right now. He'll be 29 by the time next season starts, not young but plenty young enough to give a long contract to. So while I'm a huge Jimmy G booster, let's all remember: Cousins is certainly the best QB that a team might plausibly acquire this offseason. Whether he's the best deal to be had, or the best long-term investment, is a fairer question, but a team trying to turn things around in a hurry (and certainly that's SF) ought to see him as their best savior.
I don't know. In that trade it was 3 #1s and a #2. In this one they're only netting a #1 pick next year and moving up 15 slots this year--AND they'll be going with Colt McCoy or DeShaun Watson.I have a good friend that is a Washington fan and he would LOVE to flip Cousins for the 2nd pick. Add in a #1 next year and you can almost reverse the RG3 debacle.
You are right especially the part about making the picks work.I don't know. In that trade it was 3 #1s and a #2. In this one they're only netting a #1 pick next year and moving up 15 slots this year--AND they'll be going with Colt McCoy or DeShaun Watson.
Don't get me wrong, that's nice, but not quite the same. Plus, are we sure the Skins will make those picks work?
In terms of established NFL performance level, Cousins would probably be one of the best prime-age QBs any team has acquired via trade since the league became much more passing oriented with the late 1970s rule changes. The competition is really thin: Drew Brees, Jim Everett, Jay Cutler, Trent Green, Drew Bledsoe?* You don't get many opportunities to trade for QBs in their prime that have established they can play at a high level. In SF's place, I would make the previously mentioned trade in a second.The error bars on Cousins' performance level are also far smaller than those on Jimmy G. You may "know what Cousins is", in that sense, but what he is isn't shit. Last year he was #7 in passer rating, #4 in ANY/A (behind only Ryan, Brady and Prescott), #3 in passing yards, etc etc. He throws more interceptions than the league's truly elite QBs but there are probably a lot of people who'd rather have him than Roethlisberger, Brees or Romo right now. He'll be 29 by the time next season starts, not young but plenty young enough to give a long contract to. So while I'm a huge Jimmy G booster, let's all remember: Cousins is certainly the best QB that a team might plausibly acquire this offseason. Whether he's the best deal to be had, or the best long-term investment, is a fairer question, but a team trying to turn things around in a hurry (and certainly that's SF) ought to see him as their best savior.