2017 Jimmy G: The Dilemma

Do we keep JG as the successor?

  • Yes, Lifes unsure and Brady might actually be mortal and JG is showing too much promise

    Votes: 90 34.9%
  • We keep him for the life of his contract, If it works out it works out.

    Votes: 55 21.3%
  • Instead we trade JG for a "Tier 1" asset this off season

    Votes: 72 27.9%
  • Instead we trade JG for a "Tier 2" asset this off season

    Votes: 7 2.7%
  • Instead we trade JG for a "Tier 3" asset this off season

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Instead we trade JG for a "Tier 1+" asset this off season

    Votes: 27 10.5%
  • Instead we trade JG for a "Tier 2+" asset this off season

    Votes: 7 2.7%
  • Instead we trade JG for a "Tier 3+" asset this off season

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    258

bakahump

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AFTER this season.

While I doubt many (any?) of us would take JG over TB there is that slight possibility. Just as important is what to do when you have two "Valid" options available.

Do we try for some kind of Montana/Young Favre/Rodgers scenario where we try to keep JG as the understudy for the next 2 years and if necessary longer? Including the possible salary complications of having to pay "starter QB money" to 2 guys. Keep in mind that JG would have to buy into that plan. Would 2 "alpha dog QBs" (ok an Alpha++++ and an Alpha) be able to have a constructive relationship? Would that scenario hurt the team in the locker room?

Or do we cash in JG for whatever value he has this offseason and roll with TB, with Brissett (or a TBD QB) as the post TB plan.

Finally if we try to cash in JG whats his value?
Tier 1 (1st Rounder or Starter or better caliber player)
Tier 2 (2nd or 3rd Rounder or Reserve player with promise)
Tier 3 (4th Rounder or lower)
Tier 1+ (2 1st Rounders or a 1 and a 2 or something else as ridiculous)
Tier 2+ (a 2nd or 3rd + Something else like another 2nd or a 5th)
Tier 3+ (2 4ths etc etc)

I know the Tiers are generic but chime in on how we think this plays out.
Is it possible to have the "Favre/Rodgers" plan?
Do we just let things playout (JG contract expires and we reevaluate then)?
What can we expect to get if we cash in on JGs flash of success if they choose that route?

For the record I do not think JG replaces Brady anytime soon. So I am of the opinion we cash him in this offseason. That said I do not think he would garner a "tier1" but a "tier 2" (or 2+) return might be possible this offseason. (my humble guess is a 3rd or maybe a 3rd and a 5th). I also think a big X in this equation is how Brissett handles himself these next couple weeks. Not necessarily in game, but in meetings. If the coaches feel there is "something" there then JG becomes more expendable. These 2 weeks gives the coaches a better perspective on if the Brissett they drafted and saw flashes of in the preseason (against scrubs) is a future real deal.
 

Captaincoop

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Brady is 39 years old. It's romantic to think he's going to be the guy who plays like an all pro to age 45, but no one is going to be that guy. If what we saw from Jimmy feels real to Belichick, I'm not sure he isn't starting for the Pats within a year or two at most.
 

BigSoxFan

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QBs are so valuable that you don't trade Jimmy unless you get a Tier 1 asset in return. Obviously, we need to see how this season plays out. If Jimmy can't return before Brady, he will have had 1.5 games of solid production. Any GM would be taking quite a leap of faith to trade a 1st rounder for that.

Then, there is the possibility that Brady comes back and 1) gets injured or 2) starts showing some noticeable decline. We all know Belichick wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger on a Brady trade if he thought it best for the team. But even if you decide to trade Brady, what could you realistically get for a guy who turns 40 next summer?

The Patriots are in a very good spot at QB, much better than any other team, so I expect them to just wait and see what happens.
 

Beale13

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This is getting ahead of things a bit, but it does warm my heart to think of the horror the haters are feeling right about now, banking on the demise of Brady and the winning coming to an end in the near future and realizing that this could possibly just be the beginning of phase 2.
 

MarcSullivaFan

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I think you have to keep him if you believe he's an above average to very good NFL qaurterback. There is no more critical element to success in the NFL than the QB position. Brady is going to fall off a cliff one of these days, probably sooner rather than later.

Obviously Jimmy's been super impressive in 1.5 games. It's a tiny sample and maybe he's just on a hot streak, but man has he looked good. I'd rather deal with the cap implications and the opportunity cost of not trading him rather than let a potential franchise QB walk away.
 

C4CRVT

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Wow. I really have no idea what kind of mental dysfunction people have that feel the need to compulsively discuss things that will always sort themselves out in time. I would trust Bill to essentially decide between Brissett and JG. I don't see them trading JG. Bill values depth and will use the entire next 1.875 seasons to decide what do to. More things will happen that will influence how this goes down that we can't predict and so it's kind of a waste of time.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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Brady is 39 years old. It's romantic to think he's going to be the guy who plays like an all pro to age 45, but no one is going to be that guy. If what we saw from Jimmy feels real to Belichick, I'm not sure he isn't starting for the Pats within a year or two at most.
This is pretty much where I am.

Elite quarterbacks don't seem to decline as they get older - they seem to fall off a cliff. Manning went from being an elite player in 2014 (38) to one of the worst quarterbacks in the league in 2015 (39), and out of the league in 2016(40). Favre went from being elite in 2009 (39), to one of the worst players in the league in 2010(40), to out of the league in 2011(41) . Marino lead the league in almost everything at 36, and by 38 his interception rate had doubled, he got hurt, and then retired.

When is Brady's last elite year going to be? Was it last year (38)? This year?(39), 2017?(40). 2018(41)?

I doubt it was last year (just because we haven't seen any signs) - but this year? Totally possible. Next year? Maybe probable?

IF you think JG can be a franchise quarterback (and we don't have enough info to have any idea - although BB may have enough info), you have to ask the question - how much is ensuring that you have your next franchise quarterback lined up worth? We know its more than a first round pick - teams regularly trade firsts (or multiple firsts) to get a shot at a prospect for franchise QB.

Once you figure out that value, the question becomes "how many years of Brady is that worth?" If ensuring that you have your next franchise qb (and assuming its JG) is worth more than a year or two of Brady starting - then you move on from Brady.

The idea of a third is ridiculous - Brady is 8 years older than he was when Cassel started - having a (assumed) competent quarterback is worth way more now, and with JG being under control through 2017, there's no urgency to move him.
 

dcmissle

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Have no clue.

It's quite reasonable to figure the team wants to move on from TB in 2 years. What we don't know --

(I) How the team grades JG.

(ii) How the team projects Brissett.

(iii) How much confidence it has in the grade and projection.
 

Stitch01

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Put me in the not enough information camp. Too many unknowns. We'll know much more about this 6, 12, 18 months from now. The only scenario that's probably a 100% non-starter is trading Brady after this season.

Once you figure out that value, the question becomes "how many years of Brady is that worth?" If ensuring that you have your next franchise qb (and assuming its JG) is worth more than a year or two of Brady starting - then you move on from Brady.

I think this is a little bit too robot even for BB and the Patriots. They wont move on from Brady unless he loses effectiveness.

It's quite reasonable to figure the team wants to move on from TB in 2 years. What we don't know --

I don't think this is plan A given he was just given a two year extension.
 

Van Everyman

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I think one question that we can't yet answer in 1.5 games but have a bit of data on now is: how healthy can Jimmy stay? While he isn't RGIII, and as much as Jimmy looked like Brady in a lot of ways—his throwing motion, his moving around in the pocket, etc.—he clearly has a style of play that exposes him to contact in a way that Brady's does not.

Does that change as he gets more reps? One would hope. But while Brady has been hurt exactly once in a 15 year career, Jimmy has been hurt once in a 1.5 game career. It's something you have to consider in the calculation.
 

bowiac

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I think this is a little bit too robot even for BB and the Patriots. They wont move on from Brady unless he loses effectiveness.
Even that might be too robot for Belichick. I know he's moved on from everyone else when they lost effectiveness, but none of those guys were Tom Brady. Nothing is certain of course, but I expect if Brady wants to keep playing, they're not going to move on from him even if he's no longer effective.
 
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Retain all 3 through the end of 2017. Let Brady decide his own fate at that point and facilitate a trade to wherever he wants to play. Roll with JG and JB in 2018 and beyond. If JG won't sign or if the Pats don't want to commit long term then they can tag him.
 

MillarTime

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I think you have to keep him if you believe he's an above average to very good NFL qaurterback. There is no more critical element to success in the NFL than the QB position. Brady is going to fall off a cliff one of these days, probably sooner rather than later.

Obviously Jimmy's been super impressive in 1.5 games. It's a tiny sample and maybe he's just on a hot streak, but man has he looked good. I'd rather deal with the cap implications and the opportunity cost of not trading him rather than let a potential franchise QB walk away.
This exactly.
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

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Don't you also have to consider how many teams might even be interested in a trade for Jimmy? There are less teams that will be looking to upgrade the QB spot next year then I initially thought.

There are two obvious candidates:
San Francisco
Cleveland

In the potential bucket are:
Washington
Chicago (if they can afford to move on from Cutler)

Then their are long shots:
Buffalo (don't see a in division trade)
Jets (don't see a in division trade)
Arizona (Palmer is old)
Kansas City (but Smith is still serviceable)
San Diego (Rivers getting old)

The rest of the NFL seems to either have entrenched starters or already have young QB options.

So how many of those teams would see a trade for Jimmy as a better option then QBs coming out in the draft next year?

I'm not sure a big Jimmy trade market exists
 

nothumb

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Even ifJimmy doesn't play another snap this year, and even if Brady is still Brady, I can't see BB letting him go for just a first rounder in the offseason. Too much upside.

I guess it depends what Brissett does, but I would expect them to keep JG into next season unless somebody is ready to blow them completely away.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Even that might be too robot for Belichick. I know he's moved on from everyone else when they lost effectiveness, but none of those guys were Tom Brady. Nothing is certain of course, but I expect if Brady wants to keep playing, they're not going to move on from him even if he's no longer effective.
This decision is also unlikely to be completely up to Belichick. One of Kraft's strengths is that he lets the football people make the football decisions. But the Brady situation is more than just a football decision and I think Kraft will very, very strongly want Brady's career with the Patriots to end on good terms, in some way or another. This was probably true before DFG and I think its likely even more true given the events of the last few years.

Overall, I think this is one of those situations where the team just needs to gather more information this year - on JG, TB, and JB - and reevaluate in the off-season.
 

E5 Yaz

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Even that might be too robot for Belichick. I know he's moved on from everyone else when they lost effectiveness, but none of those guys were Tom Brady. Nothing is certain of course, but I expect if Brady wants to keep playing, they're not going to move on from him even if he's no longer effective.
I think Belichick could move on from Brady ... but I doubt that Kraft can, unless Tom himself is onboard with the idea. If that were the endgame, an L.A. team or SF makes the most sense for Brady. And, always remember THIS about Brady: There isn't another team in the NFL whose best player willingly takes a salary way below what his value. That not only helps deepen the roster, it sets a tone in the lockerroom.

But I doubt that scenario. I suspect they ride it out with Brady and with JG ... unless they are overwhelmed in a deal for the latter. Rodgers sat three years behind Favre, but Favre was playing the retirement card so often that Green Bay simply cut bait.
 

lexrageorge

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First thing to keep in mind is that it is highly unlikely that Brady gets traded prior to 2017, unless the Pats want $27M in dead money sitting on their books. And I doubt they could do a restructure that would simply wipe that away and make the contract palatable for another team to absorb.

After 2017, however, all bets are off. And Brady probably knows that. I'm reasonably certain that Kraft could be convinced to amicably part ways with a 41 year old Brady and his $22M cap hit in 2018. Then again, I have the opinion that a 41 year old Brady is not someone we want to see under center every week; I very much believe in the inevitable cliff scenario taking place sooner (aka, 2017/18) rather than later.

Likely scenario is that all 3 are back in 2017, with the expectation that one of JG or JB will be the starter in 2018. Second scenario is that a team blows them away with an offer for JG that they have to take; "blows them away" means something more than the 3rd round pick the mediots seem to think he would fetch.

We'll know after this season; nothing is changing this season.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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I think Belichick could move on from Brady ... but I doubt that Kraft can, unless Tom himself is onboard with the idea.
Do you really think Belichick stands for that though? Refraining from that sort of meddling is exactly what makes Kraft a great owner. I think if BB comes to Kraft and says "I'm trading Brady - JG is better for the franchise going forward" and Kraft puts his foot down, I think BB resigns. I just can't see him putting up with that. That being said - I think Kraft would be the one to budge first.

I agree with Lexageorge here- likely scenario is that if the Patriots think JG has a good shot of being a franchise QB, you see them keep all three, and Brady gets moved post-2017 season - assuming he doesn't fall apart sometime in the next 28(+ postseason) games.
 
AFTER this season.
For the record I do not think JG replaces Brady anytime soon. So I am of the opinion we cash him in this offseason. That said I do not think he would garner a "tier1" but a "tier 2" (or 2+) return might be possible this offseason. (my humble guess is a 3rd or maybe a 3rd and a 5th).I also think a big X in this equation is how Brissett handles himself these next couple weeks. Not necessarily in game, but in meetings. If the coaches feel there is "something" there then JG becomes more expendable. These 2 weeks gives the coaches a better perspective on if the Brissett they drafted and saw flashes of in the preseason (against scrubs) is a future real deal.
Greg Bedard just said he believes Garoppolo would bring back a 1st and a 2nd this offseason.
 

amfox1

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Do nothing until just before the 2017 draft.

See if either CLE or CHI will offer 2017 #1 & #2 or 2017 and 2018 #1s for Jimmy. Note that CLE has 2 #1s (PHI) and 2 #2s (TEN) in 2017.

If not, don't do anything until at least training camp.
 

bakahump

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First part of the initial post was
"After this season"

Let me defend my "Tier 2" assumption
Not sure if its correct or if anyone will agree but here goes.

I think a "a third and a 5th" might sway BB to move JG. I think JG will have enjoyed his 1.5 ish games of being a starter. I think he will WANT to be a starter. I think he also knows that he CANT be a starter here until Brady is hurt in a career threatening manner or he falls off a cliff performance wise. I think even a 75% Brady is still a very Capable NFL QB. Especially in this offense that does not rely on deep downfield throws. So my thought was that for at least the next 2 years Brady will not "fail enough" to prompt BB and RK to cut the Icon of the franchise and hand the reins to JG. I am ok with that because as i say even a 75% Brady is probably a superbowl quality QB. (Hell look at Manning as an example.)

So if we can agree that even a diminished Brady is capable (which intelligent men may differ with).
And if we can agree that JGs "ego" will encourage him to want a starting gig in 2018. (JG may be fine with waiting but I doubt it and I dont begrudge him that.)

I think that leads us to the possibility that if they keep both guys, they will be paying Premium money for both in 2018. Probably in the form of a Franchise for JG. If in 2019 Brady has retired or been cut, We are again faced with the uncertainty of a long term contract negotiation with FA Jimmy G or another HUGE Franchise tag on him. Sure he would get starter job but we might have to outbid other teams to ensure he stays. Thats alot of money to bet on a guy who may have 5 real NFL games under his belt as a starter. (2 or so this year and another 2 or so over the next couple years)

Now I can certainly see where BB would want to be "blown away" by an offer. We could all agree that BB values 2nds and 3rds more then most. Plus he will look at the 2+ years of dependable backup service he got from JG (including 2 huge wins this year) and figure that that service and 2 Draft picks is really good value for a 2nd rounder from 2014. Especially if the bidder is a team like Cleveland who could essentially be offering the "35th Pick of the 1st round".

Why not a 1st Rounder you ask? Well its the age old..."no one rates our prospects as high as we do" combined with the idea that at the end of the season opposing GMs will still really only have 1.5 games to judge JG on. We cant have it both ways. 1.5 is not very much. Certainly not enough to get a 1st rounder, Nor is it really enough for the Pats to anoint him Brady Successor no matter what. The Pats obviously have the behind the scenes impression of JG and maybe that combined with the 1.5 games is enough to make them value him higher then the rest of the league but I dont think so. Instead I think it becomes a "happy medium".

A big part of my equation is that Jimmy G and Tom B might have "trouble getting along" maybe not overtly but at some level. Before you scoff and say BB would never let that happen, I agree. I think where we might differ is not in whether he would let it happen, but how he would keep it from happening. BB is not afraid to cut bait on a "distraction". If he feels that JG might cause even an inkling of waves (again maybe not overtly) a 2nd or 3rd+ might look like a pretty good return.

So
Coach who values "upper mid picks" (say 2nd and 3rds)
+
The prevention of any distraction (even media driven)
+
the Avoidence of huge cap implications and uncertainty in 2018 and 2019
+
the possibility that we STILL wouldnt know how good (or bad) JG really is
+
An effective even if possibly diminished TB for the next 2+ years
+
BBs mania for wanting to get "Value"

to me suggests that BB may take way less then some of us expect and be fine with "jettisoning a potential Franchise QB"

Do I want it to work out this way? Hell no. Ideally TB would play great this year and possibly next, realize he has a great life and retire a god in New England. Meanwhile JG embraces the opportunity to continue to learn and becomes the next "Rodgers" and leads Patriot Nation 2.0 in 2018 and beyond. I just dont think it will shake out that cleanly.
 

bakahump

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Do nothing until just before the 2017 draft.

See if either CLE or CHI will offer 2017 #1 & #2 or 2017 and 2018 #1s for Jimmy. Note that CLE has 2 #1s (PHI) and 2 #2s (TEN) in 2017.

If not, don't do anything until at least training camp.
I could certainly get behind this plan.
I also was not aware that the Browns had the picks to burn. That could change my who equation.
 

SpaceMan37

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Both Cleveland and Chicago are going to have high first round picks - to the point where there's not much of a chance that they're going to give up multiple picks if they're trading their own.
 

bakahump

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No Agreed. I would think its either the Philly and Tenn Picks that Cleveland owns (or similar) OR the Cleveland pick with something else (4th or something) going back along with JG.
 

lexrageorge

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Assuming that 2016 plays out as we would expect (never a safe assumption), I would argue that it would take more than a "3rd and a 5th", as I'm not really convinced there's any downside to have JG be on the team in 2017. On the other hand, not sure they could get a first unless it's for the 2018 draft, a-la Bledsoe.

Still a lot of variables; I'm still hoping for Jacoby to put up 400 yards against Rex Ryan's defense.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I think you have to be bowled over to move JG in the offseason. More than a 1st and a 2nd. There have to be pretty strong odds that Brady may be showing signs of the end by the end of 2017. Not a certainty but not in the least bit surprising, either.
 

j-man

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u have to trade Brady

trade him to LA for A Donald R Quinn

this wouild give LA a star player to build around untill they get their new stadium going A Donald is the best DT in the NFL and wouild fill a richald seymour role R Quinn wouild fill the c jones hole

the deal wouild be
LA Gets
QB T Brady WR Danny androdia a 1st in 2017
NE Gets DT A Donald DE Rquinn

this make NE Def as good as Den keep the dynaty going at least 5 - 7 more years
 

drleather2001

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They aren't trading Brady. This is preposterous.

The only way he stops starting is if he gets injured or really sucks for a long time (8 games, minimum), in which case nobody will want him, anyway.
 

soxfan121

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Someone print this thread out and send it to Brady.

Send it to the Cleveland Browns too, so they know what's coming.

Six quarters of Dreamy Jimmy is all it took, huh?
 

lexrageorge

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Brady cannot be traded until 2018 unless the Pats want a huge dead money charge sitting on their books. So, no, it ain't happening.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Brady is not going to be traded. That is just crazy talk.
Brady being traded right now is crazy talk.
Brady being traded in the off-season is crazy talk.
One of them will eventually be moved if Brady wants to continue playing......and it isn't going to be Jimmy.

Johnny Unitas - Finished his career in San Diego at age 40.
Joe Montana - Played ages 37 and 38 in Kansas City.
Brett Favre - Jets at 39, Vikings at 40-41.
Peyton Manning - Ages 36-39 in Denver.

I know it's easy to put our head between our legs or up our ass while believing it can't and won't happen to us but expecting Brady to be the Patriots starting QB at age 42-43 while trading a then 25-yr old would sound so silly if another team were doing it. I'll be an honorary fan of whatever team Brady is leading at the end of his career and be fine with it if this is his choice.
 

nothumb

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I think you have to be bowled over to move JG in the offseason. More than a 1st and a 2nd. There have to be pretty strong odds that Brady may be showing signs of the end by the end of 2017. Not a certainty but not in the least bit surprising, either.
Yep. People saying BB would take a 3rd and a 5th for Jimmy are fucking high out of their minds.

If they feel very good about Brissett after this season AND Brady looks like a great bet for 2017, maybe they trade JG for a high first rounder + in the offseason. MAYBE. Probably not.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Brady being traded right now is crazy talk.
Brady being traded in the off-season is crazy talk.
One of them will eventually be moved if Brady wants to continue playing......and it isn't going to be Jimmy.

Johnny Unitas - Finished his career in San Diego at age 40.
Joe Montana - Played ages 37 and 38 in Kansas City.
Brett Favre - Jets at 39, Vikings at 40-41.
Peyton Manning - Ages 36-39 in Denver.

I know it's easy to put our head between our legs or up our ass while believing it can't and won't happen to us but expecting Brady to be the Patriots starting QB at age 42-43 while trading a then 25-yr old would sound so silly if another team were doing it. I'll be an honorary fan of whatever team Brady is leading at the end of his career and be fine with it if this is his choice.
Pretty much. People underestimate how few QBs have been even remotely successful at age 41 in the modern NFL, which is where Brady is going to be heading into the 2018 season. Warren Moon had one decent season at that age and that is basically it.

If I had to guess, I'd say that Brady plays this year and next with JG as his backup, after 2017 they tag JG and then trade a QB. If they truly like JG and see him as a clearly superior option to Brissett in the long run, they trade Brady. If they don't see much difference between Garropolo and Brissett, they trade JG, let Brady play 1-2 more years, and then transition to Brissett. They will need to do a little accounting maneuvering to execute this strategy but it should be possible to make it work. Whether he stays with us or is traded, JG will probably not sign the tag anyway and just hash out a long term deal at some mid-range starting QB value with whoever he ends up playing for.
 

heavyde050

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Brady being traded right now is crazy talk.
Brady being traded in the off-season is crazy talk.
One of them will eventually be moved if Brady wants to continue playing......and it isn't going to be Jimmy.

Johnny Unitas - Finished his career in San Diego at age 40.
Joe Montana - Played ages 37 and 38 in Kansas City.
Brett Favre - Jets at 39, Vikings at 40-41.
Peyton Manning - Ages 36-39 in Denver.

I know it's easy to put our head between our legs or up our ass while believing it can't and won't happen to us but expecting Brady to be the Patriots starting QB at age 42-43 while trading a then 25-yr old would sound so silly if another team were doing it. I'll be an honorary fan of whatever team Brady is leading at the end of his career and be fine with it if this is his choice.
I understand where the post is coming from and I agree that Brady only has a few years of elite play left (maybe he could be the exception to the rule).
What I don't understand is why no one is mentioning the fact that the plan for life post-Brady may be with Jacoby and not Jimmy. He is over 1 year younger and will still be signed to a cheap deal when Brady's deal is up.
If a team is willing to give up a mid to high first and/or a young potential pro bowl player for Jimmy, you almost have to take that chance.
I think Brady is one of the best of all-time but I can't see a team giving up an Aaron Donald type talent for a 39 year old that will be 40 next season.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Oh great. So, a week and a half ago when I said you keep a guy if he shows he can be a top 10 QB, nobody wanted to agree with me. Now we got a bunch of people on the bandwagon.

You all get off my JGWagon.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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I understand where the post is coming from and I agree that Brady only has a few years of elite play left (maybe he could be the exception to the rule).
What I don't understand is why no one is mentioning the fact that the plan for life post-Brady may be with Jacoby and not Jimmy. He is over 1 year younger and will still be signed to a cheap deal when Brady's deal is up.
If a team is willing to give up a mid to high first and/or a young potential pro bowl player for Jimmy, you almost have to take that chance.
I think Brady is one of the best of all-time but I can't see a team giving up an Aaron Donald type talent for a 39 year old that will be 40 next season.

Nobody is mentioning Jacoby because there's no real reason to think he's anything more than Ryan Mallet at this point - he's a 3rd round quarterback pick with a single preseason and very little time under center - nobody should be making any plans based on him because the vast majority of the probability spectrum is him being nowhere near as good as JG looks right now. The most likely result for him is he holds a clipboard for a couple years, doesn't get a 2nd contract from the Pats(and they draft another mid round QB), and then floats around the league for a couple years.

If Jimmy could be a top 10 starter, there's almost nothing worth giving that up for. Not a mid first rounder, not a year or two more of Brady. You simply do not let a good, young NFL quarterback walk. Even for a young probowl player at another position - there just aren't any positions nearly as important as QB.

If the Patriots trade JG - to me it's a sign that they don't think he's actually that good - It's Cassel Redux where the system and surrounding talent made him look better than he actually was - and if that's the case - how much of that is happening with Brady?
 

Stitch01

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Jul 15, 2005
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Oh great. So, a week and a half ago when I said you keep a guy if he shows he can be a top 10 QB, nobody wanted to agree with me. Now we got a bunch of people on the bandwagon.

You all get off my JGWagon.
Think 4 years/28 million is happening never now. Completely on board with keeping Jimmy G in '17 regardless, dont think they are going to be able to retain him if Brady is still on the team after '17.

I think this thread is way overestimating the chances of Brady getting traded. The increased skepticism that Brady is going to be good in his age 41 season is good, but he's gonna be the QB here as long as he's not terrible. If he becomes terrible I expect its more likely he retires than gets traded.

Like 100 factors here, way too early, etc, but the two ,most likely outcomes to me seems like

Brady is the starter the next two seasons, plays well, Jimmy G gets Cassel'd after the '17 season with a franchise sign and trade if there's a market for his services, Brady QBs in '18 and '19 and reasonable chance is not good during one of those years

Brady is the starter the next two seasons, gets old like all QBs do, sucks, retires after the '17 season. Jimmy G is the starter if they believe he's the long-term answer and is paid accordingly.
 

Harry Hooper

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Jan 4, 2002
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Nobody is mentioning Jacoby because there's no real reason to think he's anything more than Ryan Mallet at this point - he's a 3rd round quarterback pick with a single preseason and very little time under center - nobody should be making any plans based on him because the vast majority of the probability spectrum is him being nowhere near as good as JG looks right now. The most likely result for him is he holds a clipboard for a couple years, doesn't get a 2nd contract from the Pats(and they draft another mid round QB), and then floats around the league for a couple years.
Just to add, the Pats braintrust is a formidible operation, but the idea that they can just routinely pluck Top 10 QB's out of the draft while other teams can't even do it once every 20 years is not viable.

Having said that, I look forward to being spectacularly wrong about Jacoby in the coming years.
 

lexrageorge

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Jul 31, 2007
7,278
Think 4 years/28 million is happening never now. Completely on board with keeping Jimmy G in '17 regardless, dont think they are going to be able to retain him if Brady is still on the team after '17.

I think this thread is way overestimating the chances of Brady getting traded. The increased skepticism that Brady is going to be good in his age 41 season is good, but he's gonna be the QB here as long as he's not terrible. If he becomes terrible I expect its more likely he retires than gets traded.

Like 100 factors here, way too early, etc, but the two ,most likely outcomes to me seems like

Brady is the starter the next two seasons, plays well, Jimmy G gets Cassel'd after the '17 season with a franchise sign and trade if there's a market for his services, Brady QBs in '18 and '19 and reasonable chance is not good during one of those years

Brady is the starter the next two seasons, gets old like all QBs do, sucks, retires after the '17 season. Jimmy G is the starter if they believe he's the long-term answer and is paid accordingly.
I agree with most of what you wrote. However, I don't see that Pats discarding JG if Brady starts showing a real decline in 2017 at age 40. I just don't see the Pats wanting to start a season with a 41 y/o QB in decline and noone else to take over. I realize their hands may be forced to some degree, but there is a nonzero chance Brady is QB'ing for another team in 2018 or (more likely) 2019. His contract is currently structured in a way that leaves open that possibility.

Also, another factor is that in 2018, Edelman will be 32 and Gronk will be 29. Neither are young in football years.
 
I called into F&M the other day and said this but I'll reiterate it here.

If Belichick trades JG this offseason and the Pats receive top tier compensation, I'll be thrilled. If Belichick decides to trade Brady after this season or the next (and I think it's a real possibility in 2018), I'll be thrilled.

When it comes to evaluating his own talent, there is no other coach/GM I trust more (see Revis, Milloy, Moss, etc - he usually knows who to extend and who not to extend). Bill's had some definite misses in free agency and you can question some draft classes for that stretch after Pioli left, but nobody assesses his own players like Bill Belichick. If he lets Jimmy walk, it's because he knows Garoppolo is a talented system QB whose flaws will be exposed in the future. If he keeps him, then Bill thinks he'll be a top 5 NFL QB for the next 10 to 12 years. And I'm good trusting his decision regardless of how it plays out.

And I do think trading Brady is a real possibility, even if he shows little signs of slowing down. To me it's more about how Bill views Garoppolo than how he views Tom. If he thinks Brady will be great for three years but thinks Jimmy can replicate 90% of that, he's moving on (assuming the Krafts let him).
 

Pandemonium67

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"If he thinks Brady will be great for three years..."

And that's where it gets tricky. There has never been anyone like Brady -- a guy whose idea of indulgence is an avocado sugarless non-dairy milkshake, followed by staying up on Friday night to 10:30. He takes care of himself like no other QB.

Maybe more importantly, his game does not depend on having elite athleticism. He needs to be able to throw hard and accurately, of course, and to withstand the occasional pounding, but he doesn't need to run fast, jump high, or complete a 4-minute mile. His mental acumen is a big part of his game, and that isn't going anywhere in the next few years. There's just no way to predict when or even whether he's going to fall off a cliff, or just decline slowly. Not even BB's crystal ball can see that.

Accordingly, the shrewd approach is to be prepared by 1) having the best backup possible given the salary cap restraints, and 2) having a potentially good 3rd-string guy developing in the wings in case Brady plays long enough that the top backup leaves in free agency. Check and check.

Oh, and a third thing is having an offensive plan that minimizes the QB's exposure to hits. Other than the shaky O-line play, they've got this covered too.

TL;DR: BB is on it.