2016 Starting Rotation/Bullpen Spillover

[Rovin Romine]

My question is: who (if anyone) is on the block?

Price and Kimbrel automatically slot everyone downward by one spot. Kelly and Wright are two good starting options who might also work in the bullpen, but putting them there gives locks up 5 of 7 spots. Also, those five are RHP.

In just about every Sox season I remember, there's some problem with pitchers in spring training or early on. So I'd be tempted to hold on to what we have and see what happens. But we do appear to have a bit of a surplus, plus some out of option guys who'd be very serviceable on other clubs or nice lottery tickets (Kelly, Wright, Escobar). However, barring prospects coming back, it seems we're set at the ML level for position players. So what would we try to trade for? OF depth? A 1B bat?

1) SP (5) is now: Price(L), Buchholz, E.Rodriguez(L), Porcello, Miley(L).

2) BP (8) is now: Kimbrel, Koji, Tazawa, Kelly, Wright (no opt), Ross (L), Layne (L), Escobar (L, no opt).

MiL starters: Owens (L), Johnson (L)
MiL relievers: Barnes, Workman, Ramierz, Aro, Light

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I doubt anyone specific is "on the block" but I'd imagine just about anyone outside Price and Kimbrel could be had for the right offer. Considering they don't have any more pressing needs on the big league roster (at least, that can be reasonably fixed without lighting money on fire), they probably will see who makes the most intriguing prospect-heavy offer and go with it.

 

[RIrooter09]

My question is: who (if anyone) is on the block?

1) SP (5) is now: Price(L), Buchholz, E.Rodriguez(L), Porcello, Miley(L).

2) BP (8) is now: Kimbrel, Koji, Tazawa, Kelly, Wright (no opt), Ross (L), Layne (L), Escobar (L, no opt).

MiL starters: Owens (L), Johnson (L)
MiL relievers: Barnes, Workman, Ramierz, Aro, Light

I think Kelly makes more sense in the AAA rotation as the first man up in case of injury. That leaves 1-2 major league bullpen spots to fill (I don't have much faith in Escobar). Now that we're well over the luxury tax threshold, it probably makes sense to sign one reliever and perhaps trade Hanigan for another.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I think they go into the season with Price, Buchholz, Porcello, Miley and Kelly and start both Eduardo and Owens in Pawtucket. Both could use some time to refine their arsenals and that provides them with great depth while avoiding 3 lefties in the rotation all year.

It also gives them a chance to see where the holes in the roster are and whether Hanley or Panda can bounce back before expending any more trade capital.

If one or both of them still fails to hit while also providing little or no defensive value, and the team otherwise looks playoff worthy, you can try to dump the contract around the deadline. Using one of the major league starters to sweeten that pot would make it easier to get that done and opens a spot for whichever of Rodriguez or Owens is knocking on the door harder.

 

[bosox1025]

You want to stash Eduardo Rodriguez in Pawtucket to start the year? The 22 year old who accumulated 2.2 WAR in just over a half season in the big leagues (with the stuff to suggest that he'll only improve from there)?

I think there's a very realistic chance Rodriguez is Boston's second best SP this year -- unless he falters mightily in April/May, his minor league days should be a thing of the past.

 

[Detts]

You never have too much pitching.

 

[phenweigh]

Tommy Layne has an option, so IF all these pitchers are healthy, he could be sent to Pawtucket. My default position at this time is that the roster is set. Dombromski can listen to offers, but doesn't need to actively seek out a trade. I have a hard time imagining another move to improve the major league roster. They could trade depth for prospects, but I'd prefer they hang on to the depth.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

You want to stash Eduardo Rodriguez in Pawtucket to start the year? The 22 year old who accumulated 2.2 WAR in just over a half season in the big leagues (with the stuff to suggest that he'll only improve from there)?

I think there's a very realistic chance Rodriguez is Boston's second best SP this year -- unless he falters mightily in April/May, his minor league days should be a thing of the past.

Yes. I want to start the 22 year old who had a .756 OPS against, after three great starts following his promotion, in the minors. After teams started building a book on him he wasn't so dominant.

He's a great young pitcher but he needs refinement. Add that he would be a third lefty and has plenty of options left and it's a pretty easy case to make.

 

[RustyKuntzwasnotastripper]

There have been reports that DD is shopping Hanley. Doubtful he finds a taker worth making a trade, but if so does that make Shaw the starting 1st base or do they bring in someone else? Personally I would go with Shaw and use Marrero as a UI.

 

[TheoShmeo]

I think they will try to trade Miley. He's a lefty veteran with a manageable contract and only two more years of commitment (plus an option for 2018). That should be attractive enough for a team with a hole in its rotation to cough up a useful reliever. The Sox still have that need.

Porcello is untradeable without eating a lot of salary. They seem to want to roll the dice on Buck's health one more time. Edro showed enough in my view to warrant starting the season in the majors this year. Kelly has enough perceived upside (either in the rotation or the pen, where I think he will eventually end up) that they probably don't want to trade him. And I doubt Johnson would fetch much given his uneven performance and injury.

 

[DJnVa]

Yes. I want to start the 22 year old who had a .756 OPS against, after three great starts following his promotion, in the minors. After teams started building a book on him he wasn't so dominant..

I would quibble with this. Yes, after his 3 ridiculously good starts he came back down to earth, but in his last 7 starts he gave up more than 2 ERs just once (he gave up 3) and had an ERA of 2.08, with 35 Ks in 43.1 IP. From August 18th through the end of the season his ERA dropped from 4.83 to 3.85. He was hardly getting knocked around the last 6 weeks of the season. There's no way I'd start him in AAA.

 

[johnnywayback]

Here's how I see it.

First things first: Trade Miley. As a high-floor, low-ceiling, cheap, controllable starter, he could have a lot more value to someone else than he does to us. As I mentioned in the other thread, the A's got Liam Hendricks for Jesse Chavez -- I bet we could get an even better relief arm (like, Kelvin Herrera-better), and possibly a prospect to boot. We could even throw in a fungible and out-of-options Escobar.

If we did that, we'd have a rotation of Price, Buchholz, Porcello, and Rodriguez (who is CLEARLY one of our five best starting pitchers), and one more guy.

And we'd have a bullpen of Kimbrel, Uehara, Tazawa, [MILEY RETURN TK], Layne (who is an excellent LOOGY and wouldn't have to be more than that here), and two more guys.

Injuries, of course, could alleviate the crunch -- or we could get a great deal on a Tony Sipp or a back-of-the-rotation flyer, exacerbating it. But let's assume that's what we're facing come February.

The fifth starter could be Kelly, Owens, or Wright (let's assume Johnson's injury keeps him from cracking the OD roster). Long-term, it makes sense for Owens to be in the rotation and Kelly to be in the bullpen, but it seems like they want to make damn sure Kelly can't start before they move him, so let's put him in the rotation and Owens in Pawtucket. For now.

Given the fact that he's out of options and also valuable because of his flexibility and upside, I want Wright as the long man in the bullpen. And, all things being equal, I'd like to have a second lefty, so give me Ross for the other spot. If Kelly flames out, you call up Owens, move Kelly to the pen, option Ross.

Price/Buchholz/Porcello/Rodriguez/Kelly
Kimbrel/Uehara/Tazawa/TK/Layne/Ross/Wright
Owens, Johnson, Barnes, Workman, Aro, Ramirez, Light in AAA, Miley and Escobar traded

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Miley, while unspectacular, is about as sure a thing as there is. I think an innings eater like this is very valuable to a rotation, and that should be our rotation. I'd move Kelly to the bullpen and keep Edro in the rotation.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I think Kelly makes more sense in the AAA rotation as the first man up in case of injury. That leaves 1-2 major league bullpen spots to fill (I don't have much faith in Escobar). Now that we're well over the luxury tax threshold, it probably makes sense to sign one reliever and perhaps trade Hanigan for another.

Now that Kelly has over 3 years service time, he'll need to get through waivers to be optioned to AAA.

While the Sox have been able to play that game with the likes of Daniel Nava....I don't think a viable MLB starter with three years club control and ability to maintain 97-98 mph over 100+ pitches would get through. Nor, frankly, should he.

The top of the Sox rotation is set with Price (shiny!), Buchholz (ace if healthy), and Porcello (immovable). The only questions remaining will involve the last two rotation spots.

So I think the DDski now has three related decisions to make: 1.) which LHP between Miley and EdRo should be the 4th starter; 2.) which pitcher should be the 5th starter among Miley, EdRo, and Kelly; and 3.) how does the overall value of sending Miley or Kelly to the pen compare to what prospects or players might be obtained by trade. EdRo, of course, could be optioned back to AAA if Kelly and Miley are determined to be superior options (unlikely and unwarranted IMO), so he wouldn't really be a trade chip.

I still like Kelly as the 5th starter, and think the Sox could pick up something quite good for Miley.

With Price and Porcello around to eat innings, the Sox don't really need that aspect of Miley's value, but there are a ton of other teams that do. And with so much potential upside from other pitchers, the Sox should be able to adapt to keep the #4/5 spots producing high-quality innings by allocating starts to whomever is actually throwing the ball well from among EdRo, Kelly, Wright, Owens, Johnson, and Escobar. So the Sox don't really need that aspect of Miley's value, either, but there are a ton of other teams that do.

Unfortunately, there's really no overlap between the questions surrounding Buchholz, and the answers provided by Miley. EdRo taking a step forward might help answer those particular questions; for the most part though, the Sox will likely need to assess the #2 spot in light of how Buchholz actually progresses through the year.

Porcello and Miley have significant overlap, of course. But there's no moving Porcello now that he's getting $20+MM.

 

[jasail]

Whoops. Disregard all of that. Did not factor in Kelly's service time into his ability to be optioned.

 

[curly2]

I think they should keep Miley in the rotation and move Kelly to the pen. Miley is by no means a great pitcher, but his value is that he can pitch around 200 innings at league average. That's a valuable guy to have.

And while I know not every guy's stuff "plays us" in the bullpen, I think it could for Kelly. I would rather give Kelly that shot than overpay for O'Day, who's been great but, at 33, is likely to begin to decline. He's been very good, and surprisingly good, at getting out lefty hitters despite being a righty sidearm/submarine guy, but once his stuff starts to decline a little, I think lefties will crush him.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I don't understand the argument that the Red Sox don't "need" Miley's inning-eating value. Three guys who are capable of giving them 200 innings of above league average pitching has to be better than two. Miley isn't more disposable because the team has other "innings eaters". If he carries the most value as far as a trade goes, move him. But otherwise, he's not the weak link you seek to move out of the rotation or off the roster.

 

[johnnywayback]

I don't understand the argument that the Red Sox don't "need" Miley's inning-eating value. Three guys who are capable of giving them 200 innings of above league average pitching has to be better than two. Miley isn't more disposable because the team has other "innings eaters". If he carries the most value as far as a trade goes, move him. But otherwise, he's not the weak link you seek to move out of the rotation or off the roster.

It's not that he's a weak link, it's that he's more valuable to a team that doesn't have so many good depth options (Kelly, Owens, Wright, Johnson) in case a starter gets injured. The guy who is more valuable to another team than he is to you is the guy you want to trade.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It's not that he's a weak link, it's that he's more valuable to a team that doesn't have so many good depth options (Kelly, Owens, Wright, Johnson) in case a starter gets injured. The guy who is more valuable to another team than he is to you is the guy you want to trade.

I'm fine with moving him if he's carries the most value in a trade scenario. I just don't buy that the team doesn't need him because they already have innings eaters. To me, there's a difference between actively shopping a guy in order to be rid of him and trading him because a team came asking and made a strong offer. Miley is a guy you trade in the latter scenario, not the former.

 

[smastroyin]

I think to be honest it is premature to have this discussion (I know the thread was broken out).

It would be surprising and disappointing if DD sat down this morning and said "OK, I'm cool until Spring Training." IMO, he is going to be on the lookout for ways to continue to improve the team. I think things look pretty good as-is but I could see a bunch of other things come into play:

First, as I mentioned elsewhere, while the team is clearly in GFIN (and the next two years at least) mode, they need to start thinking about 2018 and beyond. They won't be able to keep all of the guys that they have. So I wouldn't mind if DD delayed the clock on some of these guys. For instance, without having a name to give you, I think it would be smart to trade Kelly for his AA equivalent and then hope you have that guy available in a couple years. Or trade Miley or Owens for a younger version of them and maybe a A ball lotto ticket, etc. The pitching pipeline is rather bare right now - Espinoza has a high ceiling but is far away and lots could happen, Kopech screwed up any plans for him with his suspension so we'll need to wait and see what he looks like when he comes back. After that, the cupboard is essentially bare (OK fine we can talk about whether Trey Ball can put it together or whether Williams Jerez can contribute).

Second, I think that DD like many GMs favors guys he knows, and I could see him making a play for Doug Fister if his price isn't high. I kind of disregard the Greinke rumors specifically to Greinke, but they do imply DD is still out there looking for upgrades. As for Fister specifically, I'm not sure what went wrong in his time with the Nats (first his periphs went then he completely fell apart) or if it is correctable, but I just have a feeling he is on DD's radar.

Third, related to why DD might still be looking around, I just don't have the faith in Kelly that the OMGFASTBALLS crowd does. His peripherals show a decent back end of rotation starter and always have. I know everyone hopes that he can do the thing where he eliminates all of his bad starts and therefore we can use his cherry picked good starts to call that his upside, but I'm not sure too many pitchers have ever managed to do this. The point is, his 2016 contribution as a starter is a bit in question compared to the other options, and his upside also seems to be pretty limited, so it's not like you need to give him starts so he can blossom into the near-ace some of you seem to imagine he can be.

 

[C4CRVT]

My question is: who (if anyone) is on the block?

1) SP (5) is now: Price(L), Buchholz, E.Rodriguez(L), Porcello, Miley(L).

2) BP (8) is now: Kimbrel, Koji, Tazawa, Kelly, Wright (no opt), Ross (L), Layne (L), Escobar (L, no opt).

MiL starters: Owens (L), Johnson (L)
MiL relievers: Barnes, Workman, Ramierz, Aro, Light

This looks right to me. The way I see it, keeping Miley is a hedge against potential injury for any of the other 4 (maybe most likely Buchholz but you never know). DDski should be looking for back end RHP SP (AAA journeyman type) for depth to buy time for Kelly to convert back to starting if on of Porcello or Buchholz can't go. How comfortable are folks with having 4 LHP in the rotation?

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I agree with Smas' take on Kelly. He could sort out his inconsistency, and if the team didn't have other options, he'd definitely deserve another shot at the rotation, but this team DOES have other options. Kelly has a Wade Davis-like profile, so I'd start him in the pen. You can stretch him out later if the rotation gets wracked with injuries. But if things work out well, he replaces Uehara in '17 as the relief ace/set-up guy to Kimbrel (or hedges against a Taz meltdown or loss to FA).

Rodriguez has to start in the rotation. We can't love all of our kids and hope that they all become CYA and MVP candidates but then panic every time they hit a bump in the road. His body of work last year - the historic start, the middle pitch-tipping (?) games, the last 6+ weeks - total up to a damn good pitcher. Put him in the 5th spot, skip a start or two to save on innings, and watch him blossom.

I don't see the need to trade Miley. Sure, DD can remain opportunistic, but 200 reliable innings are valuable, especially to a staff with Clay Buchholz in it and 3 young guys in the top 8.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I would quibble with this. Yes, after his 3 ridiculously good starts he came back down to earth, but in his last 7 starts he gave up more than 2 ERs just once (he gave up 3) and had an ERA of 2.08, with 35 Ks in 43.1 IP. From August 18th through the end of the season his ERA dropped from 4.83 to 3.85. He was hardly getting knocked around the last 6 weeks of the season. There's no way I'd start him in AAA.

More details on this--from his third start through August 12 he was giving up about 1.5 HR/9 and had a K/BB just over 2. In those final 7 starts starting August 18, those numbers were about 0.6 and 3.5, respectively.

Saying that the first three starts were gimmes and the rest of the year tells the true story is a form of cherry-picking. You could just as easily say that the first 14 starts (4.83 ERA) were his breaking-in period and the last seven (2.08) tell the true story. A more accurate story than either would be that the league adjusted to him quickly, and he, a bit more slowly, adjusted in turn. The sum total of those adjustments was 120 innings of above-average major league starting pitching, and 23-year-old lefthanders who can provide that don't grow on trees. He belongs in a rotation, whether ours or somebody else's. The Sox have two choices that make sense--trade one of Buchholz/Porcello/Miley/EdRo/Kelly, or move Kelly to the pen.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Third, related to why DD might still be looking around, I just don't have the faith in Kelly that the OMGFASTBALLS crowd does. His peripherals show a decent back end of rotation starter and always have. I know everyone hopes that he can do the thing where he eliminates all of his bad starts and therefore we can use his cherry picked good starts to call that his upside, but I'm not sure too many pitchers have ever managed to do this. The point is, his 2016 contribution as a starter is a bit in question compared to the other options, and his upside also seems to be pretty limited, so it's not like you need to give him starts so he can blossom into the near-ace some of you seem to imagine he can be.

These are all good observations, but DDski is a self-proclaimed member of the OMGFASTBALLS crowd.

That being said, the primary impetus for him not breaking out a celebratory cigar and putting his feet up on the ottoman isn't either Miley or Kelly. It's Buchholz (and the bullpen). Since the Sox are clearly in GFIN mode for 2016, they need a quality starter to slot behind Price as part of a legit playoff rotation.

That could well be Buchholz, but he doesn't have a great track record of being healthy and effective to end the season, and while one of the other pitchers on staff might have stepped up to pitch equivalently by then, that's no sure thing either. So I see DDski's two options as 1.) to pick up a solid #2 starter this offseason as contingency planning, or 2.) to pick up a solid #2 at the trade deadline. Personally, I like the latter of those two options, since the last 2 months of Strasburg's contract might be available for rather less than what teams are asking for quality starters in December.

Trading for a #2 at the deadline means the team's narrowing its risk window as to injury and underperformance. Which is good. It means the team's giving the guys currently under contract with good stuff an extra three months to try to take the next step to become studs. Which is good. It means holding onto prospects for one more minor-league spring training and half-season, to re-evaluate where the next wave of prospect redundancy is developing. Which is good. And it means not equivocating the value of someone able to pitch a no-hitter for the second game of the regular season with having that guy around for the second game of the World Series.

As for the bullpen, the Sox are at least one good LHP away from being championship-quality.

 

[YouLookAdopted]

Here's how I see it.

First things first: Trade Miley. As a high-floor, low-ceiling, cheap, controllable starter, he could have a lot more value to someone else than he does to us. As I mentioned in the other thread, the A's got Liam Hendricks for Jesse Chavez -- I bet we could get an even better relief arm (like, Kelvin Herrera-better), and possibly a prospect to boot. We could even throw in a fungible and out-of-options Escobar.

If we did that, we'd have a rotation of Price, Buchholz, Porcello, and Rodriguez (who is CLEARLY one of our five best starting pitchers), and one more guy.

And we'd have a bullpen of Kimbrel, Uehara, Tazawa, [MILEY RETURN TK], Layne (who is an excellent LOOGY and wouldn't have to be more than that here), and two more guys.

Injuries, of course, could alleviate the crunch -- or we could get a great deal on a Tony Sipp or a back-of-the-rotation flyer, exacerbating it. But let's assume that's what we're facing come February.

So... trade off a "high-floor, low-ceiling, cheap, controllable" starter for a bullpen arm after we just signed a closer? And expect the return to be an elite, closer-caliber player PLUS a prospect? For Wade Miley? The rotation spot left open by Miley would be filled by some combination of Kelly and Owens and I'm not sure that the quality of 200 innings out of those guys is going to be any better than what you're going to get out of Miley. Seems like Miley has about as much value to the Red Sox as he does to any other team.

 

[nvalvo]

We seem to have a pretty sharp split on Miley's value. Heading into his age 29 season following four seasons of sub-4 FIP and 190+ IP, Miley is on a highly favorable contract. The ERAs have increased each season, from 3.33 to 4.46, but the FIPs have been steady.

I'd rather trade Kelly, if we're trading someone.

 

[glennhoffmania]

I could've sworn I read something near the end of the season where Farrell and/or DD said that they view Kelly as a starter next year. A google search yielded nothing. Am I misremembering or was that actually said?

 

[grimshaw]

My preference would be a 6 man rotation until someone sucks or inevitably gets hurt. If you have two long men like Wright and pitcher B available to piggyback the occasional stinker, it *may* work. The pen as constituted couldn't bear it right now, but maybe that changes with an acquisition or two. The rotation really did start to gel at the end of the year, and acquiring Price really adds the quality innings not needed by Breslow and ilk, and keeps the tender arm of Taz in check.

Gun to my head, Kelly - as he had the fewest average IP per start of the 5 and a 6 man only really works if your guys can consistently go 6+. I'm also not sure he would
a) be an asset out of the pen
b) be the type of guy not to bark about his place in the pen. This is someone who legit thought he could win a Cy Young and seems to have a high opinion of himself.

It also saves Clay and EdRo the wear and tear and Kelly is really the only guy who has to worry about cashing in any time soon. Guys under contract probably wouldn't care as much about the longer lay off.

 

[Rasputin]

I'm surprised I'm the first one to suggest trading Buchholz.

If we're going to win the World Series, we need Price to be an ace and someone to be a #2. Maybe that's Buchholz, but the error bars on what we can expect from him this season are large. Larger, I think than anyone else. At the same time, I think Porcello and Rodriguez, even Kelly to a lesser extent have a chance to be that #2 guy.

Trading Buchholz might be trading low and it might be lowering the combined upside of the rotation, but I think it also gives us a lot more predictability.

Regardless, I think trading a starter can wait until March. Someone's going to get an injury and it may well be us.

Also, I love the Tony Sipp suggestion.

Kimbrel, Koji, Tazawa, Sipp, Ross, and guys who are without options make a pretty decent pen to start the season. It will be different at the end, but that's the nature of bullpens.

 

[GreyisGone]

I'm surprised I'm the first one to suggest trading Buchholz.

If we're going to win the World Series, we need Price to be an ace and someone to be a #2. Maybe that's Buchholz, but the error bars on what we can expect from him this season are large. Larger, I think than anyone else. At the same time, I think Porcello and Rodriguez, even Kelly to a lesser extent have a chance to be that #2 guy.

Trading Buchholz might be trading low and it might be lowering the combined upside of the rotation, but I think it also gives us a lot more predictability.

Regardless, I think trading a starter can wait until March. Someone's going to get an injury and it may well be us.

Also, I love the Tony Sipp suggestion.

Kimbrel, Koji, Tazawa, Sipp, Ross, and guys who are without options make a pretty decent pen to start the season. It will be different at the end, but that's the nature of bullpens.

How does trading Buccholz help you find a #2? He's not bringing that kind of returning and has that upside if healthy. If anything, needing a #2 means it makes sense to keep him. Then you have potential that your #2 can be him, ERod, or Porcello. Better than trying to back fill with Kelly or Owens.

 

[BaseballJones]

Per Ras' post (#29) there was lots of talk during the season about trading Buchholz before the deadline, when he was pitching great and hadn't gotten injured yet. I think it makes a lot of sense, as I simply don't trust him to have a really good season where he is healthy all year long. But he's certainly talented enough, with a good enough contract, that SOMEBODY will be pretty eager to trade for him. So I say move him now if you get the right deal. If not, no sweat.

If you trade him:
SP: Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Miley, Wright/Kelly
RP: Kelly/Wright, Koji, Taz, Ross, Escobar, Barnes, Kimbrel

If you don't trade him:
SP: Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Miley, Clay
RP: Kelly, Wright, Koji, Taz, Ross, Escobar, Kimbrel (Barnes to AAA)

I would prefer for Kelly to be in the pen so they become loaded with power arms in relief. Kelly, Taz, Kimbrel, Barnes - that's four guys who can get 95+, and two who go 98+.

I don't want to trade Miley, because he regularly gives you 200+ innings at a decent era. That's very valuable, and his contract isn't expensive. There's really no reason to trade him, and his consistency is something you want. Porcello isn't going anywhere. Rodriguez should stay with the Red Sox. He's very good, and he has demonstrated that he's ready for the big leagues. No reason, really, to stash him in AAA.

I think either setup I mention above would give the Red Sox an excellent rotation and bullpen, certainly enough to give this team a legit shot at a championship.

 

[Rasputin]

How does trading Buccholz help you find a #2? He's not bringing that kind of returning and has that upside if healthy.

I didn't say anything that even resembles the notion that trading Buchholz helps us find a #2. Obviously he's one candidate, and perhaps the best candidate, to be that guy, but he's not the only one and he is the least predictable of the bunch.

 

[ZMart100]

Second, I think that DD like many GMs favors guys he knows, and I could see him making a play for Doug Fister if his price isn't high. I kind of disregard the Greinke rumors specifically to Greinke, but they do imply DD is still out there looking for upgrades. As for Fister specifically, I'm not sure what went wrong in his time with the Nats (first his periphs went then he completely fell apart) or if it is correctable, but I just have a feeling he is on DD's radar.

Fister went from averaging 88.7 mph on his fastball in 2014 to 86.9 mph in 2015. That seems unlikely to be correctable.

 

[Bowlerman9]

Now that Kelly has over 3 years service time, he'll need to get through waivers to be optioned to AAA.

I know this is true with players who have 5+ years of service time, but I'm not aware this is true for players with 3 years. Can you post something which backs up this claim? I did a search but haven't been able to find anything other than the 5 year number.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

These are all good observations, but DDski is a self-proclaimed member of the OMGFASTBALLS crowd.

That being said, the primary impetus for him not breaking out a celebratory cigar and putting his feet up on the ottoman isn't either Miley or Kelly. It's Buchholz (and the bullpen). Since the Sox are clearly in GFIN mode for 2016, they need a quality starter to slot behind Price as part of a legit playoff rotation.

That could well be Buchholz, but he doesn't have a great track record of being healthy and effective to end the season, and while one of the other pitchers on staff might have stepped up to pitch equivalently by then, that's no sure thing either. So I see DDski's two options as 1.) to pick up a solid #2 starter this offseason as contingency planning, or 2.) to pick up a solid #2 at the trade deadline. Personally, I like the latter of those two options, since the last 2 months of Strasburg's contract might be available for rather less than what teams are asking for quality starters in December.

Trading for a #2 at the deadline means the team's narrowing its risk window as to injury and underperformance. Which is good. It means the team's giving the guys currently under contract with good stuff an extra three months to try to take the next step to become studs. Which is good. It means holding onto prospects for one more minor-league spring training and half-season, to re-evaluate where the next wave of prospect redundancy is developing. Which is good. And it means not equivocating the value of someone able to pitch a no-hitter for the second game of the regular season with having that guy around for the second game of the World Series.

As for the bullpen, the Sox are at least one good LHP away from being championship-quality.

I'd like to see the Red Sox make a run at Jose Quintana. I don't think the White Sox value him as highly as they should given 3 years of team control and borderline-ace peripherals. I'd happily give up Swihart or Moncada or maybe a couple lesser prospects for him.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Buchholz is the one I would trade. (1) I have no confidence in his ability to stay healthy for an entire season. Thus, even if he pitches well, his value is limited due to his penchant for injury. (2) His injuries have become more arm related and thus serious over the last few seasons. As such, a major decline in performance wouldn't surprise me. Moreover, I wouldn't be shocked to see the crappy Buchholz of 2014 show up next year. (3) The Red Sox could trade Miley, but when Buchholz misses at least two months of the 2016 season, starting pitching depth could become an issue for the Red Sox.

I would trade Buchholz for a relief pitcher or prospect. I also like the idea of dumping his salary from payroll.

Price
Rodriguez
Porcello
Miley
Kelly and Wright compete for the 5th spot with the loser moving to the bullpen

Owens and Johnson in AAA

That said, I ultimately would like to see the Red Sox make some kind of quantity for quality trade. That is, trade Buchholz, Miley, and a prospect for a SP upgrade of some sort. Unfortunately, such deals are not overly realistic. . . .

 

[ALiveH]

Our SP depth is illusory because of Buch. There's about a 0% probability that he will be healthy & effective for the whole season. But, i would hold onto Buch b/c there's a good chance that he'll still be worth at least a few wins.

Joe Kelly is a strong candidate to go to the bullpen or get traded. His stuff is tantalizing but the numbers have always told a different story - that he is very hittable. I have very little confidence that he'd have good production as a starter even when healthy.

I wouldn't make a trade at least until / unless we get through spring training healthy. There's a decent chance we can stash one of our SPs on the DL or if EdRod struggles in ST, he could get sent down for refinement. We still have decent (not great) minor league depth with Owens, Johnson & Wright.

 

[Rovin Romine]

FWIW, I don't want to give up Wright. A league average, cost controlled, SP who is a knuckleballer is not an asset you let go of lightly. I sort of view him as the fixed back end of the bullpen. Anyway, I'd build with the assumption that Buchholz (or another starter) will go down at some point, allowing for Owen/Johnson to come up. (I'd also build with the assumption that Uehara/Tazawa may be ineffective at some point early on.) But if Owen/Johnson struggle, or EdRo has a sophomore slump, or Porcello does not figure it out, plugging in Wright into the lineup might make a very credible difference on the season as a whole.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I know this is true with players who have 5+ years of service time, but I'm not aware this is true for players with 3 years. Can you post something which backs up this claim? I did a search but haven't been able to find anything other than the 5 year number.

Look under section 2.4 "Option Waivers" here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Waivers.

It's very rare for players to get claimed, and they can be pulled back. However, expecting to sneak through a viable MLB starter on a 1-year contract for Arb1 money, and who also happens to maintain elite velocity, is probably the exact type of guy that might cause a Beane or Epstein to place a claim anyway.

If the Sox go into Spring Training with Plan A to sneak Kelly through, and then can't...well then they've either got to phantom-DL someone, to DFA a guy like Wright who looks really useful as a long reliever/spot starter especially when the hard-throwers are going through dead arm in the early-season, or to option a guy who can't be claimed like EdRo who has (IMO) no business getting sent to the minors.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

I'm in the "trade Miley" camp. Yes he has lots of value - but he's not likely to get better. Whereas Kelly's upside is an elite SP. Another factor is I don't want to block guys like Owens, Johnson or Wright.

So - you trade Miley and give the #5 slot to Kelly. If he shits the bed then there are lots of internal options - which should at least provide as much value as Miley if not more. Kelly can always be sent to the bullpen if he can't cut it as a starter.

One would hope Miley could fetch a power 7th/8th inning guy at the very least plus a B prospect (or an A ball lottery ticket)

 

[TomRicardo]

I think you go with a rotation of:

Price
Porcello
ERod
Buchholz/Kelly
Miley

CL - Kimbrel
8th - Uehara
Tazawa
Layne
Ross
Escobar

LR - Wright

If Buchholz survives Spring Training without a boo boo, you send Kelly down to Pawtucket. Never give up on the dream THEO STYLE.

 

[TomRicardo]

Steven Wright is a borderline starter at best. His future is being the long man in the bullpen / emergency starter.

 

[smastroyin]

re: Fister's velocity, of course it is troubling, but it is also where he was earlier in his career, and he was able to change his delivery to eek out more velocity. If there are physical reasons he can't do it anymore that is one thing, but there are sometimes mechanical reasons that velocity drops. It is worrisome that he has lost velocity on everything of course, but literally, this is the point I am making on whether baseball people think his problems are correctable. Obviously there isn't a reason to think our baseball people are that much better than the Nats baseball people, so this all needs to be taken into account.

re: Buchholz. If you approach the season with the idea that the Red Sox need a #2 rather than be Price and the collection of average-ish guys, then you want to keep Buchholz. The error bars are high, sure, but part of the high error bars is that he has the most upside (in 2016) of anyone but Price on the staff. Yes, Rodriguez has a good bit himself, and of course Porcello could get results in line with his peripherals and also make his peripherals a little better. But, if you really think the Red Sox need a second guy then you need to keep all of these guys around.

If you instead just want to prioritize minimizing downside risk, then I really do think you can't be getting rid of Buchholz to clear a spot for Joe Kelly in the rotation. Yes, there is less chance that he is zero than Buchholz, but he is also already the backup plan if Buchholz is a zero. He also has substantially less chance to be excellent, and significant performance downside himself.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

From over in the Signing David Price thread:

I was listening to the interview with Frank Wren last night and someone asked him if the Sox wanted to make any more moves to bolster the bullpen. He said that a current Sox starter is probably going to end up in the bullpen.

It's a long time between now and then, and subterfuge and whatnot, but if this is true and holds, the nominee has to be Kelly.

 

[Darnell's Son]

For those that think Joe Kelly will transition well to the bullpen, Snod wrote about why it may not work out like we think it may on .com earlier this year.

 

[DJnVa]

Can someone that thinks we should trade Buchholz explain what kind of return they think we would get?

 

[Rovin Romine]

If we figure Kelly's August is real and replicable, then he must be in the rotation. Given DD's love of power arms. . .

Well, as a thought experiment, if we put Kelley in the rotation, someone has to go. Porcello may well be untradeable with his current contract and recent results. Miley seems the most tradeable, but he's also a more stable and predictable quantity than anyone other than Price on the staff. (You can't put Miley in the BP - not without ruining his value because he wouldn't be stretched out as a starter. Same thing with Porcello.)

Would anyone be really comfortable with: Price, Buchholz, EdRo, Porcello, Kelly? With Miley traded, and Owens/Johnson at AAA and maybe Wright in the BP?

It gives me pause. That's a lot of question marks after Price.

 

[YTF]

Here's how I see it.

First things first: Trade Miley. As a high-floor, low-ceiling, cheap, controllable starter, he could have a lot more value to someone else than he does to us. As I mentioned in the other thread, the A's got Liam Hendricks for Jesse Chavez -- I bet we could get an even better relief arm (like, Kelvin Herrera-better), and possibly a prospect to boot. We could even throw in a fungible and out-of-options Escobar.

If we did that, we'd have a rotation of Price, Buchholz, Porcello, and Rodriguez (who is CLEARLY one of our five best starting pitchers), and one more guy.

And we'd have a bullpen of Kimbrel, Uehara, Tazawa, [MILEY RETURN TK], Layne (who is an excellent LOOGY and wouldn't have to be more than that here), and two more guys.

Injuries, of course, could alleviate the crunch -- or we could get a great deal on a Tony Sipp or a back-of-the-rotation flyer, exacerbating it. But let's assume that's what we're facing come February.

The fifth starter could be Kelly, Owens, or Wright (let's assume Johnson's injury keeps him from cracking the OD roster). Long-term, it makes sense for Owens to be in the rotation and Kelly to be in the bullpen, but it seems like they want to make damn sure Kelly can't start before they move him, so let's put him in the rotation and Owens in Pawtucket. For now.

Given the fact that he's out of options and also valuable because of his flexibility and upside, I want Wright as the long man in the bullpen. And, all things being equal, I'd like to have a second lefty, so give me Ross for the other spot. If Kelly flames out, you call up Owens, move Kelly to the pen, option Ross.

Price/Buchholz/Porcello/Rodriguez/Kelly
Kimbrel/Uehara/Tazawa/TK/Layne/Ross/Wright
Owens, Johnson, Barnes, Workman, Aro, Ramirez, Light in AAA, Miley and Escobar traded

Right now I would much rather keep Miley in the rotation. Considering the Price and Porcello contracts, can't the Sox use the guy that you described in Miley? I'd like to see Kelly become the guy your hoping to get in return for Miley. Also a dependable "innings eater" with Buchholz on this staff is a plus.

 

[ZMart100]

re: Fister's velocity, of course it is troubling, but it is also where he was earlier in his career, and he was able to change his delivery to eek out more velocity. If there are physical reasons he can't do it anymore that is one thing, but there are sometimes mechanical reasons that velocity drops. It is worrisome that he has lost velocity on everything of course, but literally, this is the point I am making on whether baseball people think his problems are correctable. Obviously there isn't a reason to think our baseball people are that much better than the Nats baseball people, so this all needs to be taken into account.

If it were just mechanical I would expect that he would have gotten his mechanics back at least once by accident. Prior to 2014, he had never had a max velocity in the majors less than 92.5 mph. In 2014, he maxed at 92.0. This year his max velocity was 90.2. If he's willing to take the #3 slot in Pawtucket and a spring training invite, I wouldn't be opposed, but I think that's unlikely.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Would anyone be really comfortable with: Price, Buchholz, EdRo, Porcello, Kelly? With Miley traded, and Owens/Johnson at AAA and maybe Wright in the BP?

I'm also skeptical that the Red Sox will start the season with a rotation that has 3 lefties. Miley's the most tradeable, either for stashable Minor Leaguers or a similar (albeit more expensive) RH Starter.

Three Free Agents come to mind:

Leake
Lackey
Iwakuma

Leake is probably looking at 4-5 years / $16M-$19M/yr. Lackey and Iwakuma have QO's attached. Some peg them at ~2 years / $14M/yr

Have no idea what the cost-controlled Miley could bring back in trade, but Leake is worth looking at as a possible replacement. Anyone know more about him (other than stats)?