No. I said barring trade or injury because we are specifically talking about the scenario where all 6 are healthy and on the 40 man roster in April. With the Miley trade that scenario will not okay out and the point is now moot.
2016 Starting Rotation/Bullpen Spillover
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
With the Miley trade:
1) Definite SP (4) is now: Price(L), Buchholz, E.Rodriguez(L), Porcello.
1a) Possible SP (2) is now: Elias (L) and Kelly
2) BP (8) is now: Kimbrel, Koji, Smith, Tazawa, Wright (no opt), Ross (L), Layne (L), Escobar (L, no opt).
MiL starters: Owens (L), Johnson (L)
MiL relievers: Barnes, Workman, Ramierz, Light[/QUOTE]
***
I sort of like the trade and sort of don't. From a SP perspective, we basically exchanged the certainty of Miley for Elias/Kelly. Another way of looking at it is that if we go with a rotation of Price, Buchholz, E-Rod, Procello, Kelly, it'll basically be the same as last year except we've upgraded from Miley to Price.
The PB looks great now. 4 of the 7 spots are filled: Kimbrel, Koji, Smith, Tazawa. I suppose #5 would be Elias or Kelly.
That gives us two spots for: Wright (no opt), Ross (L), Layne (L), Escobar (L, no opt).
More trades are coming. Or Koji's arm fell off and they haven't yet made the announcement.
1) Definite SP (4) is now: Price(L), Buchholz, E.Rodriguez(L), Porcello.
1a) Possible SP (2) is now: Elias (L) and Kelly
2) BP (8) is now: Kimbrel, Koji, Smith, Tazawa, Wright (no opt), Ross (L), Layne (L), Escobar (L, no opt).
MiL starters: Owens (L), Johnson (L)
MiL relievers: Barnes, Workman, Ramierz, Light[/QUOTE]
***
I sort of like the trade and sort of don't. From a SP perspective, we basically exchanged the certainty of Miley for Elias/Kelly. Another way of looking at it is that if we go with a rotation of Price, Buchholz, E-Rod, Procello, Kelly, it'll basically be the same as last year except we've upgraded from Miley to Price.
The PB looks great now. 4 of the 7 spots are filled: Kimbrel, Koji, Smith, Tazawa. I suppose #5 would be Elias or Kelly.
That gives us two spots for: Wright (no opt), Ross (L), Layne (L), Escobar (L, no opt).
More trades are coming. Or Koji's arm fell off and they haven't yet made the announcement.
And my point was that the team had a rather large amount of control over whether your hypothetical situation happened, and they exercised it while I was typing, it seems.
I'm pretty sure this means the definite rotation is Price, Porcello, Buchholz, Rodriguez, Kelly.
I don't see any real reason to expect Kelly or Elias would be in the bullpen. I'd assume Elias goes down to Pawtucket as a starting depth option, with the major league bullpen being Kimbrel, Koji, Carson, Taz, Wright, and a couple lefties. Unless they're going to bring in another lefty, I don't see much point in a trade.
I was just commenting on a post in the rumor thread in the MLB forum that suggests he's asking for three years at five or six per year.
I think I'd do it.
Kimbrel, Koji, Taz, Smith, and Sipp. Layne as loogy, Wright as long man.
That would be a disturbingly deep bullpen, and one that could likely withstand one or even two of the top five being hurt or ineffective. I doubt it will happen, but I kinda want it to.
Yeah, what the hell. If they're going to pay some luxury tax, might as well go balls out and have a kickass bullpen. They'd be like the opposite of Dombrowski's terrible Detroit bullpens.
Yeah, we were cross posting and quoting each other at the same time in different threads. I'd give Sipp that in a Johnny Manziel heartbeat and just lock it down.
I am hoping that Workman can return to be that guy out of the bullpen that was so good in the 2013 playoffs.
Post-Price signing I had it coming down to either Kelly or Miley being dealt, with Miley being my own personal preference to keep due to him being more of a sure thing. I mean while I completely understand the desire to dream big on Kelly, that line of thought struck me as a better overall fit for last year's roster makeup, and something about that extra question mark factor slotted behind Price just doesn't sit well with me. My pessimist side is already seeing visions of a Price-and-Pray scenario playing itself out.
But hey, if the security trade off being made amounted to adding a young and cost controlled arm like Carson Smith to our bullpen...I'm pretty cool with rolling the dice on that. Go Joe Kelly.
But hey, if the security trade off being made amounted to adding a young and cost controlled arm like Carson Smith to our bullpen...I'm pretty cool with rolling the dice on that. Go Joe Kelly.
Rumors of a "mystery team" making a push to trade for Jose Fernandez: http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/487674/mystery-team-making-push-for-jose-Fernandez
So, assuming it takes a boatload of prospects/other cheap talent, do you hope the Red Sox are the mystery team? If it takes Betts or X plus? What if it doesn't take either of them but does require a lot of others (Swihart, Owens, maybe Moncada, etc.). We've discussed this before, but mostly prior to signing Price, which changes our need equation. And with less to suggest that the Marlins might be serious about dealing him. What do people think now?
So, assuming it takes a boatload of prospects/other cheap talent, do you hope the Red Sox are the mystery team? If it takes Betts or X plus? What if it doesn't take either of them but does require a lot of others (Swihart, Owens, maybe Moncada, etc.). We've discussed this before, but mostly prior to signing Price, which changes our need equation. And with less to suggest that the Marlins might be serious about dealing him. What do people think now?
Not in a million years do I hope the Sox are the mystery team. After everything Dombrowski has done to bring in a #1 starter, a closer and a bullpen ace while barely putting a dent in the existing roster or the team's farm depth, I sincerely hope he wouldn't now blow all of his future capital on a godfather offer for a guy who is supposedly not available and could be had for a whole lot less if he's patient and waits another year or two.
Jon Heyman on MLB Network was doing mock trade proposals for Fernandez. His for the Red Sox was Rodriguez, Espinoza, Moncada, and Devers. It won't take that much to get him, but at least 2 of those guys would have to go and I imagine they'd want 1 of Betts/Bogaerts. No way do the Red Sox make this trade.
Well that sorts things out pretty well.
Price/Buch/Edrod/Porcello/Kelly (Owens/Wright/Elias/Johnson).
The Bullpen is stacked.
The lineup is all set (minus figuring out if Vazquez or Hanigan stays).
The only thing left to do would be to tinker with upgrading #2 SP.
Price/Buch/Edrod/Porcello/Kelly (Owens/Wright/Elias/Johnson).
The Bullpen is stacked.
The lineup is all set (minus figuring out if Vazquez or Hanigan stays).
The only thing left to do would be to tinker with upgrading #2 SP.
I saw that and thought he was high. There isn't a single player worth 4 blue chip prospects. Not Harper. Not Trout.
I also saw Morosi suggest Baez, Schwarber and Kyle Hendricks which is ridiculously low. So two guys who don't play a premium position effectively and a #4 starter. It is shocking to me how little some national reporters know about evaluating players value.
FWIW - Dave Cameron just tried to tackle his value and came up with Julio Urias.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/figuring-out-jose-fernandezs-trade-value/
Last edited:
In other words, roughly $100m in surplus value, plus likely a bit extra to beat other offers.
Somebody who's good at this: How much WAR are we expecting out of Henry Owens the next six years? Steamer only has him pegged for six starts in 2016. Can Owens provide $50m of WAR over his salary before he hits FA? Cuz that's a start.
I'd actually think about it with Harper since he'll probably make 60+ mill in excess value and it isn't even clear if he's hit his ceiling yet.
Trout seems to be at or close to his peak and is being paid 24 mill per through 2020 or a 3 WAR player. So if you expected him to average 9 wins through 2020, that's about 48 million in excess per season, plus draft pick compensation if he moves.
I don't necessarily think any of those chips are going to be superstars, but they all have all-star potential.
Hey man, to each his own, but it's a long shot any of those 4 have a single all-star season during their careers. On the other hand, it's Mike Trout.
But that's a discussion for another thread.
Bradford is saying the Sox aren't in on the bidding for Maeda. Not all that surprising, really. While the posting fee isn't nearly the obstacle it has been in the past, I think they've made their big financial splash with Price and if they're going to upgrade the rotation any further, it will be if a trade opportunity falls in their lap.