2015 Offseason: Non-Revis Edition

Corsi

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Corsi

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SeoulSoxFan

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Corsi said:
Ben Volin ‏@BenVolin  4s4 seconds ago
Not Pats "@JamesWalkerNFL @RosenhausSports says on @JoeRoseShow that Dolphins, Chiefs, Browns & Texans are among options for Brian Hartline"
 
Thank the lord. It had a Greg Lewis type outcome written all over it. 
 
Now Brandon Marshall, that's an intriguing option. 2014 was a disappointment but who wasn't on that god-forsaken Bears team? I'd like to look for a rebound more like in 2013, when PFF wrote this about him: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/01/06/2013-pff-all-pro-team/
 
It’s rare that a receivers blocking plays much part in our decision making, but when you can complement 1,295 yards and 12 touchdowns with a +17.0 run blocking grade (the next highest was +6.2) you get a true every-down wide receiver weapon in Marshall.
Speaking of Brandons, Pats should also take a hard look at a super-efficient pass rusher in Brandon Graham. He fits in a lot of schemes, and could be on a verge of a breakout season. Cincyjungle.com had a nice breakdown:
 
http://www.cincyjungle.com/2015/3/4/8135073/nfl-free-agency-pass-rusher-brandon-graham
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Marciano490 said:
Marshall has character issues, too. One case in which there seems to have been some genuine growth and rehabilitation, but still worth considering.
 
Marshall has been on Showtime's Inside the NFL all season & spoke frankly about his past issues. I'm wiling to bet he has truly gone beyond that and would be a fine fit in NE. 
 

RedOctober3829

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SeoulSoxFan said:
 
Marshall has been on Showtime's Inside the NFL all season & spoke frankly about his past issues. I'm wiling to bet he has truly gone beyond that and would be a fine fit in NE. 
Yes, he seems to be beyond his past incidents.  He is well-spoken and seems to have matured since Denver.  I'd gladly take him on the Patriots.
 

Ed Hillel

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SeoulSoxFan said:
 Speaking of Brandons, Pats should also take a hard look at a super-efficient pass rusher in Brandon Graham. He fits in a lot of schemes, and could be on a verge of a breakout season. Cincyjungle.com had a nice breakdown:
 
http://www.cincyjungle.com/2015/3/4/8135073/nfl-free-agency-pass-rusher-brandon-graham
 
Of all the guys on the massive list of available pass-rushers, Graham is at the top for me, provided I am right in thinking that he's been overlooked on a poor Philly defense and may come fairly cheap. He's also only 26, so he may be willing to come in on a one-year prove it type of deal for a couple million or so to get the bigger contract next season.
 

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It’s rare that a receivers blocking plays much part in our decision making, but when you can complement 1,295 yards and 12 touchdowns with a +17.0 run blocking grade (the next highest was +6.2) you get a true every-down wide receiver weapon in Marshall.
At 6'-4", 230, and the blocking skills noted above, is there any way that Marshall could fill the role in this offense formerly held by Aaron Hernandez?  Has there ever been a case of a WR becoming a TE or H-Back?  The closest I can think of was Keith Byars moving from TB/FB to H-Back.
 

theapportioner

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SeoulSoxFan said:
 
Marshall has been on Showtime's Inside the NFL all season & spoke frankly about his past issues. I'm wiling to bet he has truly gone beyond that and would be a fine fit in NE. 
 
I just don't see the room for him, unless Marshall is willing to take a major restructure. His 2015 cap hit is $9,575,000.
 

Marciano490

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SeoulSoxFan said:
 
Marshall has been on Showtime's Inside the NFL all season & spoke frankly about his past issues. I'm wiling to bet he has truly gone beyond that and would be a fine fit in NE. 
 
Agreed, which is why I noted his genuine growth and rehabilitation.  I think he's as good as any receiver out there.  He was pretty hobbled last season, but did a really inhuman job of staying on the field and made some incredible catches.  Probably too expensive, but imagine the nightmare of covering him and Gronk with Edelman creating havoc underneath.
 

Marciano490

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Marciano490 said:
 
Agreed, which is why I noted his genuine growth and rehabilitation.  I think he's as good as any receiver out there.  He was pretty hobbled last season, but did a really inhuman job of staying on the field and made some incredible catches.  Probably too expensive, but imagine the nightmare of covering him and Gronk with Edelman creating havoc underneath.
 
I take it back. Marshall's an irredeemable prick and I'm glad the Patriots didn't demean themselves by trading for someone with his history.  He'll fit right in on the Jets.
 

E5 Yaz

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RedOctober3829 said:
 
Randy Moss and Rodney Harrison are cases in point.
 
It's been a while, though. You could argue Revis, but his deal was set up for him to receive a huge payday this year.
 
Harrison joined the Pats in 03, Moss in 07.  I mean, they certainly qualify for what Kraft's talking about; but 2003 is the stone ages in football terms
 

Ed Hillel

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Does Tom Brady count? I know he's rich and all anyway, and was already with the team, but so a number of great athletes who still demand top dollar. Revis is yet to be determined. Going back, Bruschi took a huge discount to stay as well. Did we ever get info on Edelman's offers last year from the Niners and Giants? Moss also took less to stay in 2009.
 

E5 Yaz

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Ed Hillel said:
Does Tom Brady count? I know he's rich and all anyway, and was already with the team, but so a number of great athletes who still demand top dollar. Revis is yet to be determined. Going back, Bruschi took a huge discount to stay as well. Did we ever get info on Edelman's offers last year from the Niners and Giants? Moss also took less to stay in 2009.
 
Kraft was talking about players coming to NE from elsewhere. I'm not sure you can count players who already had their mind-control chips implanted
 
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The Super Bowl win re-validates this idea and serves to extend the environment where the dynasty continues and the vets likely see it that way, whether or not they realize it. I bet they sign one or two who have Lombardis in their eyes.
 

dcmissle

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It's true to varying degrees. Why you'd go around trumpeting this right now is beyond me, but whatever.
 

theapportioner

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Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
The Super Bowl win re-validates this idea and serves to extend the environment where the dynasty continues and the vets likely see it that way, whether or not they realize it. I bet they sign one or two who have Lombardis in their eyes.
 
It's reassuring that the Ballghazi crap seems to not have damaged the franchise in the players' eyes.
 

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Until they actually sign such veterans, it's just Kraft's supposition.
 
My interest is whether this still has some legs, or has the landscape changed to the degree that how the Patriots operate will begin to be considered old school.
 

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Super Nomario said:
This is my argument for Vereen, too: he played more of a role against the better pass defenses. With Amendola, his contributions are inflated by the Edelman pass that essentially required no skill on his part. Take that away, and Amendola was fine, nothing special.
 
I don't see Johnson as a realistic option, but ideally they'd find someone better or at least cheaper than Amendola.
 
Yep--just was pointing out that Amendola's yards/game for the playoffs would prorate to about 469 for a 16 game season against the meager 200 he had during the regular season. Basically, I'm thinking a reliable 4th option, as MMSP puts it, is worth more to an expected playoff team because of the different needs of the playoffs.
 
Vereen's playoffs prorates out to 768 for 16 games, by the way, and that's with only 6 rushing attempts in the playoffs (PFR) so they weren't really even trying to keep the defenses honest with him.
 
I think in recent years we've learned a lot more in terms of thinking about team construction. When you have a QB like Top Brady who can handle the multiple receiver options and expects to go to the playoffs, I'm thinking these alternative options take on new value. Obviously, you don't break the vault for them, but this would be a market issue to exploit where you can maybe beat the offer of a competitor without paying the full value of what he's worth to you because you know he's worth more to you than he is to the competitor.
 

Super Nomario

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There is no Rev said:
 
Yep--just was pointing out that Amendola's yards/game for the playoffs would prorate to about 469 for a 16 game season against the meager 200 he had during the regular season. Basically, I'm thinking a reliable 4th option, as MMSP puts it, is worth more to an expected playoff team because of the different needs of the playoffs.
 
Vereen's playoffs prorates out to 768 for 16 games, by the way, and that's with only 6 rushing attempts in the playoffs (PFR) so they weren't really even trying to keep the defenses honest with him.
 
I think in recent years we've learned a lot more in terms of thinking about team construction. When you have a QB like Top Brady who can handle the multiple receiver options and expects to go to the playoffs, I'm thinking these alternative options take on new value. Obviously, you don't break the vault for them, but this would be a market issue to exploit where you can maybe beat the offer of a competitor without paying the full value of what he's worth to you because you know he's worth more to you than he is to the competitor.
Some of Amendola's contribution was not necessarily related to the playoffs, but rather due to the specific teams the Patriots were facing. Baltimore had tons of secondary injuries and Brady went after Rashaan Melvin mercilessly. They did the same with Tharold Simon after Jeremy Lane went out. It's not hard to imagine a different shape of a defense that has three or four solid cornerbacks and Amendola's contributions are pretty limited.
 

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Super Nomario said:
Some of Amendola's contribution was not necessarily related to the playoffs, but rather due to the specific teams the Patriots were facing. Baltimore had tons of secondary injuries and Brady went after Rashaan Melvin mercilessly. They did the same with Tharold Simon after Jeremy Lane went out. It's not hard to imagine a different shape of a defense that has three or four solid cornerbacks and Amendola's contributions are pretty limited.
How many teams does that describe? The Seahawks when healthy?
 
A couple things to add to the Amendola discussion:
-He had some bad luck early in the year and had a number of catches called back due to penalties (some being his fault, but still, those aren't always called).
-The Patriots had great injury luck among receivers -- Edelman just missed 2 games and LaFell played every game. Amendola was clearly the third option but he didn't get a chance to step in to replace anyone either, as other third options may have. The one chance he had (the Jets game) he did pretty well with 8 catches on 11 targets. For most of the year he wasn't even looked at. 
 

Super Nomario

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Toe Nash said:
How many teams does that describe? The Seahawks when healthy?
The Seahawks really didn't have great CB depth last year, having lost Thurmond and Browner in the offseason. Contrast that with a team like Buffalo, where their top two in Gilmore / McKelvin aren't quite as strong as Seattle's top two, but then they have good additional options in Corey Graham and Nickell Robey. The Patriots ran six deep with Arrington / Ryan / Butler / Dennard. Green Bay with Hayward / Hyde / House as their 3/4/5 is deep. Cincy, where they have recent firsts Kirkpatrick and Dennard behind a top 3 of Hall / Newman / Jones. These teams don't have pass defenses as good as Seattle overall, but the shapes match up better with the Pats. They don't necessarily have elite #1s (which is kind of a waste against the Pats anyway) but have four or so guys they can run out there who are competent.
 
Toe Nash said:
A couple things to add to the Amendola discussion:
-He had some bad luck early in the year and had a number of catches called back due to penalties (some being his fault, but still, those aren't always called).
A lot of those were plays that weren't Amendola's "fault," but he was only open because another Pats receiver sprung him open with an illegal pick. I see those as more a negative against Amendola than a positive: he can't get open against man coverage, so they had to scheme him getting open with rub concepts. Frankly, that was a lot of his production in the playoffs, too.
 
Toe Nash said:
-The Patriots had great injury luck among receivers -- Edelman just missed 2 games and LaFell played every game. Amendola was clearly the third option but he didn't get a chance to step in to replace anyone either, as other third options may have. The one chance he had (the Jets game) he did pretty well with 8 catches on 11 targets. For most of the year he wasn't even looked at.
That's fair. I think he could put up decent numbers if Edelman got hurt for an extended stretch. I just don't think it's worth paying $4.5 MM for that.
 

tims4wins

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Ditto, I didn't see him coming back. To be honest I see this ending badly. I think Lynch's production will fall big time, Seattle will start giving carries to other guys, and it'll get ugly. Just a hunch.
 

tims4wins

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Right, all true. I just question how much his heart is really in it. Maybe he will be the same Beast that he has been the last 3-4 years. And he'll only be 29 this year, it's not like he is hitting that dreaded 31-32 territory.
 

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tims4wins said:
Right, all true. I just question how much his heart is really in it. Maybe he will be the same Beast that he has been the last 3-4 years. And he'll only be 29 this year, it's not like he is hitting that dreaded 31-32 territory.
 
Jones-Drew is 29 and just retired.  Every running back is different, the only commonality being that when your production falls off it falls of in a hurry.
 

rodderick

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tims4wins said:
Right, all true. I just question how much his heart is really in it. Maybe he will be the same Beast that he has been the last 3-4 years. And he'll only be 29 this year, it's not like he is hitting that dreaded 31-32 territory.
 
29 isn't young for a RB with 2000+ career carries.
 

Ed Hillel

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Wow, that's a brutal contract if it all hits the cap this season (no second year option like Revis). I think it will give him a 12.5 million dollar cap hit. By the time they get Wilson signed (which they'll have to be creative with), they'll have no money left to spend, if they aren't forced to cut down a bit. They should have just let Lynch go at that price.
 

RedOctober3829

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NortheasternPJ said:
Schefter said no one else would give him more than $5 mill.

11 is brutal.
A report by ESPN’s (and former News Tribune Seahawks beat writer) John Clayton says the agreement is for one season with $1 million in base pay, with a $9 million signing bonus and $1 million roster bonus.