2015 Offseason: Non-Revis Edition

Kenny F'ing Powers

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BigJimEd said:
Not once Mayo passes a physical. Then the Pats will save about 6.5.
The rest is already paid and will hit the cap at some point. Just a matter of when it hits.
 
I was under the impression his dead cap hit was $6 million this year.
 
Where are you seeing otherwise?
 

Super Nomario

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Kenny F'ing Powers said:
 
I was under the impression his dead cap hit was $6 million this year.
 
Where are you seeing otherwise?
You're both right. The dead money is $6 MM, but they pay that no matter what. Whether's it's all this year or spread out over the next two is another issue (and will be one whether Mayo stays or goes). They get out of this year's salary by cutting / trading him, which is a real savings of $6.5 MM or so. Depending on how the dead money gets split, they might realize that $6.5 MM this year or split over this year and next.
 

Ed Hillel

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MarcSullivaFan said:
 
Here's another one, this should probably do it:
 


Former Alabama and Oakland Raiders linebacker Rolando McClain, prior to retiring from the NFL at the age of just 24, "felt like Aaron Hernandez, like I just wanted to kill somebody," he said among other revealing things about the abrupt end of his playing career in a feature story by ESPN The Magazine.
 
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000273685/article/rolando-mcclain-says-he-was-feeling-like-aaron-hernandez
 

BigJimEd

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Super Nomario said:
You're both right. The dead money is $6 MM, but they pay that no matter what. Whether's it's all this year or spread out over the next two is another issue (and will be one whether Mayo stays or goes). They get out of this year's salary by cutting / trading him, which is a real savings of $6.5 MM or so. Depending on how the dead money gets split, they might realize that $6.5 MM this year or split over this year and next.
Yes, Thank you. That is what I was trying to say.

I think the Pats look at money paid out as sunk cost even when it hasn't hit the cap yet.

Any non-guaranteed money is what they will ultimately save. Both in real dollars and in cap savings. Although cap savings may not come all in one season.


That's why I think they mainly look at production vs non-guaranteed money. That's the important figure more so than the publicized cap savings/hit that is often reported.
 

Phragle

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Super Nomario said:
It's probably worth kicking the tires on McClain to see if he'll come cheap enough, but I don't really see the fit. They already have three linebackers for two spots unless they're planning to cut Mayo after he passes his physical. And McClain doesn't play special teams (just 9 snaps last year). Depth is good; this would just strike me as a strange allocation of resources.
 
You could say they have three, but they only have one that's healthy. Also, how much is he going to cost? I have to think not much. The big deals were signed a long time ago. 
 
I look at McClain similarly to how I look at Spikes.
 

Super Nomario

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Jeff Howe @jeffphowe  ·  33m 33 minutes ago
The Patriots offered Rolando McClain $4 million in a contract that was comparably structured to the accepted Cowboys' $4M offer, per source.
 
Assuming this is true, I've got to think that's a bad sign for Hightower's recovery or Mayo's likelihood of sticking or both. $4 MM isn't backup money.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Super Nomario said:
Jeff Howe @jeffphowe  ·  33m 33 minutes ago
The Patriots offered Rolando McClain $4 million in a contract that was comparably structured to the accepted Cowboys' $4M offer, per source.
 
Assuming this is true, I've got to think that's a bad sign for Hightower's recovery or Mayo's likelihood of sticking or both. $4 MM isn't backup money.
Do you know what the rules are that govern when Mayo can or must take a physical (for the purposes of deciding whether his guaranteed-for-injury money is guaranteed)? As far as I can tell, this still hasn't happened. Its not clear to me whether that's because Mayo is still recovering from the knee injury and the Patriots don't want him to take the physical right now or whether its because the player has some say and can strategically postpone the physical.

In any case, I agree with you about the $4M not being backup money and giving us some window (if true) into their thinking about the position. I also wonder whether that kind of contract gives Mayo second thoughts about a restructure. What is the most he can expect to get on the open market as a 29-year-old who has played 12 games over the last two years, especially now that most teams have spent their money? Not much I imagine.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Does anyone have any sense of how much the Patriots have committed to incentives in 2015 that are deemed "NLTBE" but which actually are attainable?  Miguel had some blog entries about this, but many of them relate to Wilfork and Amendola and others, so it's not easy to tell what is left. 
 
It seems to me it might matter a little with respect to the Mayo situation.  If the Patriots are sitting on $5 million in incentives for which they are not taking a cap hit, but which are going to be earned, that's already a heavy negative adjustment to next year's cap and might make them less likely to be willing to cut Mayo and take that dead money on board (although I take Nomario's point that when you net out the dead cap money after he clears the physical and the high salary he's due it's actually a cap savings).
 

E5 Yaz

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I don't understand: I was told to expect that veterans would jump at the chance to win with the Patriots when offered similar contracts
 

Van Everyman

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That was only when we offered less money. Money here was the same.

Also:

@AdamSchefter: Patriots free-agent RB Stevan Ridley is visiting NY Jets today, per source. He already has visited Dolphins.
 

bakahump

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Yes....scary that they felt they needed to address this "Depth" that agressively.  (Sooooo, i guess it not depth??)
 
Benardrick Mckinney or Denzel Perryman  come on down....
 

Stitch01

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E5 Yaz said:
I don't understand: I was told to expect that veterans would jump at the chance to win with the Patriots when offered similar contracts
Only if you take that statement in the most simplistic, black and white form possible.  Like its totally stupid to believe the Pats can get every player they want at equal/just below market value because they are the Pats, but the Pats win more than their share of jump balls/slight discounts. 
 

dcmissle

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E5 Yaz said:
I don't understand: I was told to expect that veterans would jump at the chance to win with the Patriots when offered similar contracts
The Cowboys were helpful to getting his career back on track. He obviously is familiar with his teammates, coaches and Dallas. so there may be gratitude, there is comfort, and the money is reportedly the same.

It's a very reasonable decision. The odds are against both the Patriots and the Cowboys winning the SB in any year, including next.
 

Super Nomario

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
It seems to me it might matter a little with respect to the Mayo situation.  If the Patriots are sitting on $5 million in incentives for which they are not taking a cap hit, but which are going to be earned, that's already a heavy negative adjustment to next year's cap and might make them less likely to be willing to cut Mayo and take that dead money on board (although I take Nomario's point that when you net out the dead cap money after he clears the physical and the high salary he's due it's actually a cap savings).
I would think the opposite - a heavy negative adjustment to the cap based on NLTBE incentives would lead to a greater likelihood of cutting Mayo to save money against those incentives.
 

Ed Hillel

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I think there may be some overreaction. Belichick may be perfectly happy with the LB corps going forward, but would have preferred to have McClain and 2 million over Mayo. That doesn't mean the LB corp is thin or that Mayo is a bad third option.
 

Ferm Sheller

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dcmissle said:
The Cowboys were helpful to getting his career back on track. He obviously is familiar with his teammates, coaches and Dallas. so there may be gratitude, there is comfort, and the money is reportedly the same.

It's a very reasonable decision. The odds are against both the Patriots and the Cowboys winning the SB in any year, including next.
Right. There's absolutely no way both the Pats and Cowboys win the SB in the same year.
 

Ed Hillel

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Corsi said:
 
Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer  1m1 minute ago
The Redskins have traded a 2016 sixth-round pick to the Buccaneers for S Dashon Goldson anda a 2016 seventh-round pick.
 
 
Man, what a bust Goldson has ended up. A lot of fans wanted the Pats to trade half their draft to move up and snag this guy.
 
I find this pretty intriguing. My PFF subscription has lapsed but, from what I recall, he played some LG when he first came into the league and graded out well there on their metrics. Or maybe I'm totally making that up.
 
13 games his rookie season (2011) and graded out at a -3 overall, although that was heavily skewed by 2 games in which he was a combined -10.5. He had a couple strong seasons in their rankings as a center and was then pretty average there last year. Still, looks like good depth at worst and likely an upgrade.
 
Edit - That's assuming Connolly comes back. Obviously a starter if not.
 

RedOctober3829

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Ed Hillel said:
 
Man, what a bust Goldson has ended up. A lot of fans wanted the Pats to trade half their draft to move up and snag this guy.
 
 
13 games his rookie season (2011) and graded out at a -3 overall, although that was heavily skewed by 2 games in which he was a combined -10.5. He had a couple strong seasons in their rankings as a center and was then pretty average there last year. Still, looks like good depth at worst and likely an upgrade.
I think everyone wanted Goldson after his free agent visit.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Ed Hillel said:
Man, what a bust Goldson has ended up. A lot of fans wanted the Pats to trade half their draft to move up and snag this guy.
I think you might be mixing him up with Mark Barron, the other TB safety who was the more recent draft bust.

13 games his rookie season (2011) and graded out at a -3 overall, although that was heavily skewed by 2 games in which he was a combined -10.5. He had a couple strong seasons in their rankings as a center and was then pretty average there last year. Still, looks like good depth at worst and likely an upgrade.
 
Edit - That's assuming Connolly comes back. Obviously a starter if not.
Thanks. Selective memory I guess. I'd still be willing to take a shot if the money is right, as he seems to still have some upside at his age and who knows whether Oakland really got the best out of him.
 

Ed Hillel

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I think you might be mixing him up with Mark Barron, the other TB safety who was the more recent draft bust.
 
Whoops, you're right. Goldson fell off a cliff, Barron never got 5 feet off the ground.
 

dcmissle

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Given the needs, shrewd move by Scot M., who took advantage of TB's apparent desire to free cap space. It's essentially a no-cost deal in terms of player comp, and the team's position at safety is dreadful. The Snyders have had an uncharacteristically solid, under-the-radar offseason. Of course there is that problem at QB ...
 

bradmahn

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I'd be intrigued by an attempt to sign WR Andre Holmes from the Raiders with a short money contract, kind of like the Emmanuel Sanders one year offer. He's a guy who the Raiders seem to undervalue despite having some games with good production and some pretty appetizing athletic skills. He compares favorably to Dobson in a lot of measurables (I know, I know). Dobson on the left, Holmes on the right:
 
Height: 6'3", 6'4"
Weight: 210, 210
40y dash: 4.37-4.44, 4.53
20y shuttle: 4.33, 4.31
3 cone: 7.19, 6.69
Vertical: 35", 35"
Broad Jump: 10'1", 10'10"
 
In limited opportunities, he has definitely shown an ability to use his size and athleticism to bring down contested catches, and has had some big play ability (19 of his 72 catches have been 20+ yarders and he has averaged 14.7 and 17.2 YPC over the last two years). If he can be had for cheap, I'd like to see what he could do in our offense.
 
Edit: Of course I failed to mention he was undrafted, the Raiders tendered him at the lowest level, and no compensation would be due Oakland if the Patriots signed him.
 

Gunfighter 09

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bradmahn said:
I'd be intrigued by an attempt to sign WR Andre Holmes from the Raiders with a short money contract, kind of like the Emmanuel Sanders one year offer. He's a guy who the Raiders seem to undervalue despite having some games with good production and some pretty appetizing athletic skills. He compares favorably to Dobson in a lot of measurables (I know, I know). Dobson on the left, Holmes on the right:
 
Height: 6'3", 6'4"
Weight: 210, 210
40y dash: 4.37-4.44, 4.53
20y shuttle: 4.33, 4.31
3 cone: 7.19, 6.69
Vertical: 35", 35"
Broad Jump: 10'1", 10'10"
 
In limited opportunities, he has definitely shown an ability to use his size and athleticism to bring down contested catches, and has had some big play ability (19 of his 72 catches have been 20+ yarders and he has averaged 14.7 and 17.2 YPC over the last two years). If he can be had for cheap, I'd like to see what he could do in our offense.
 
Edit: Of course I failed to mention he was undrafted, the Raiders tendered him at the lowest level, and no compensation would be due Oakland if the Patriots signed him.
 
 
He signed his tender with Oakland. He is a great athlete, and at 26 he could still break out, but his 47% catch percentage on over 150 targets the last two years tells the story with Holmes. He has great speed and is a special athlete, but does not track the ball well, hasnt really caught many balls in traffic and has average at best hands. Despite his huge body and leading ability, he has not bee very effective in the Red Zone, where his speed is mitigated by space, which is the most disappointing thing about him. Perhaps with a full offseason working with one quarterback he will develop some more consistency, but I think the Raiders were smart to prioritize Rod Streater over Holmes.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I'm not sure how much the 49ers offered Crabtree when they approached him about an extension last summer...but I bet it was a lot more than 3.2M.
 
Nice signing for Oakland.  Pretty steep and costly fall for Crabtree.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Gunfighter 09 said:
The Raiders finally signed a wide receiver, bringing in Michael Crabtree for 1yr/$3.2M with another $1.8 in potential incentives. They got him for Stevie Johnson/Bryan Hartline/Dexter McCluster money with no long term committment.
 
http://www.sfgate.com/raiders/article/Crabtree-headingacross-the-bay-6197842.php?cmpid=twitter-desktop
 
According to Joel Corry (I cant link Twitter at work) Crabtree's incentive are all not likely to be earned.
 
He gets $400K for 70 catches and 900 yards, another $400K if he makes the probowl and the whole $1.8M if he catches 100 balls for 1,400 yards. Never before have I wanted a prima donna to earn $1.8M more than now.....
 

axx

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Gunfighter 09 said:
 
According to Joel Corry (I cant link Twitter at work) Crabtree's incentive are all not likely to be earned.
 
He gets $400K for 70 catches and 900 yards, another $400K if he makes the probowl and the whole $1.8M if he catches 100 balls for 1,400 yards. Never before have I wanted a prima donna to earn $1.8M more than now.....
 
The NFLPA allows for stat based incentives?
 

Gunfighter 09

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axx said:
 
The NFLPA allows for stat based incentives?
 
Yes, they can be either statistical achievements or team accomplishments or some NFL certified media awards (yes, there is a possibility that voters support a player who they like full of the knowledge they are making the player money).  Here are some good links explaining how they work:
 
http://www.thefootballeducator.com/sports-negotiations-defining-nfl-contract-incentives/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/01/15/how-nfl-contracts-are-helping-nfl-players-but-hurting-their-teams/
http://www.leanblog.org/2011/01/individual-nfl-player-incentives-why-are-they-necessary-do-they-distort-the-game/
http://overthecap.com/nfl-contracts-the-incentive-vs-the-escalator/
 
The quick explanation is that incentives that fall below the level of performance from the previous season (Crabtree catching 69 passes  or Peyton Manning winning the division) are "likely to be earned"  and count against this year's cap. Achievement greater than last year's performance (Crabtree catching 70 passes or Manning getting to the AFC championship game) are "not likely to be earned" and do not count against the cap unless they are actually earned. IF they are earned during the season, they are counted against the amount the team is under the cap, or against the next year's cap if necessary. 
 

dynomite

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Gunfighter 09 said:
 
Yes, they can be either statistical achievements or team accomplishments or some NFL certified media awards (yes, there is a possibility that voters support a player who they like full of the knowledge they are making the player money).  
If I remember correctly, this was the disastrous route followed by rapper Master P and his fledgling agent group when negotiating Ricky Williams' first contract with the Saints. I believe he was paid league minimum unless he met certain almost impossible goals, like rushing for 2,000 yards. As a result, Williams was dramatically underpaid and the contract was a cautionary tale for the entire league.

Edit: just Googled around, and yes, it was awful. He needed to rush for 1,600 yards 3 of his first 4 years, play 35% of the snaps, etc. And yes, there was a $3M bonus for breaking Dickerson's 2,105 yard record. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricky_Williams#New_Orleans_Saints
 

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Former Raiders C Stephan Wisiewski signs with the Jags on a one year "prove it" deal for $2.5M. No idea if is guaranteed, though you have to assume at least most of it is. 
 
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Old Fart Tree

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dynomite said:
If I remember correctly, this was the disastrous route followed by rapper Master P and his fledgling agent group when negotiating Ricky Williams' first contract with the Saints. I believe he was paid league minimum unless he met certain almost impossible goals, like rushing for 2,000 yards. As a result, Williams was dramatically underpaid and the contract was a cautionary tale for the entire league.

Edit: just Googled around, and yes, it was awful. He needed to rush for 1,600 yards 3 of his first 4 years, play 35% of the snaps, etc. And yes, there was a $3M bonus for breaking Dickerson's 2,105 yard record. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricky_Williams#New_Orleans_Saints
That contract was just a total fucking shitshow. He got paid well if he was Walter Payton but better. And as a guy to whom Ricky Williams was a total jerk at one point, I loved it.