2014 Yankees - Fiscally Responsible

[TomRicardo]

Ellsbury
Jeter
McCann
Teixeira
ARod
Soriano
Johnson
Ichiro
Gardener
 
Cervilli
Nunes
Wells
Ryan
 
 
Sabathia
Kuroda
Nova
Pineda
Phelps
 
Robertson
Kelley
Betances
Claiborne
???
???
???
 
So there you go.  With ARod that is ~184 million.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Since by all accounts they offered Cano a higher AAV than the deal he signed (though for fewer years, of course) anyone making the argument this is about short term fiscal responsibility is not really paying close attention.
 
Risk management, sure....short-term fiscal responsibility?  Not credible here.

 

[Wingack]

Since by all accounts they offered Cano a higher AAV than the deal he signed (though for fewer years, of course) anyone making the argument this is about short term fiscal responsibility is not really paying close attention.
 
Risk management, sure....short-term fiscal responsibility?  Not credible here.

 
Do we know for sure when that deal was offered? Was it offered after Ellsbury was signed?
 

Ellsbury
Jeter
McCann
Teixeira
ARod
Soriano
Johnson
Ichiro
Gardener
 
Cervilli
Nunes
Wells
Ryan
 
 
Sabathia
Kuroda
Nova
Pineda
Phelps
 
Robertson
Kelley
Betances
Claiborne
???
???
???
 
So there you go.  With ARod that is ~184 million.

 
That lineup isn't a total disaster.

 

[dynomite]

That lineup isn't a total disaster.

Well, it depends, right? Are you assuming

1) That Jeter (39-years-old on Opening Day), Soriano (38), and Ichiro (40) will all be healthy and playing well?

2) That ARod won't be suspended? And,

3) That Teixiera will be the same hitter he was before serious wrist surgery?

Because that looks like some serious risk for over 50% of the starting 2014 lineup.

 

[SaveBooFerriss]

The Yankees definitely will sign another starter.   If not Tanaka, it Jimenez, Garza or Santana likely.  The bullpen would worry me even though those guys pitched pretty well last year.   
 
The dirty little secret about Arod is that they have a better team with him on the field than him suspended.  

 

[TomRicardo]

 
Do we know for sure when that deal was offered? Was it offered after Ellsbury was signed?
 
 
That lineup isn't a total disaster.

 
 
That line up scores about 750 runs if everyone stays healthy.  There isn't a single person in that line up a year removed from .850+ ops.  Ellsbury is two years removed and that is it.
 
Edit - The bench is atrocious.  They have zero depth and they have lineup with an average age of over 34.  The only guy that has been healthy over the last three years is a 40 YO RF who is falling off.

 

[Wingack]

Well, it depends, right? Are you assuming

1) That Jeter (39-years-old on Opening Day), Soriano (38), and Ichiro (40) will all be healthy and playing well?

2) That ARod won't be suspended? And,

3) That Teixiera will be the same hitter he was before serious wrist surgery?

Because that looks like some serious risk for over 50% of the starting 2014 lineup.

 
I am not saying there isn't a ton of risk. But if everyone stays relatively healthy, and ARod plays, there are a lot fewer blackholes in the lineup than there were last year, even without Cano.

 

[terrynever]

I'm hopeful A-Rod never plays another game in a Yankee uniform. Buy him out after the suspension is over. Bring a little integrity back to the franchise. He's toast anyway.

 

[Sampo Gida]

That's an 81 W team. Last years team outperformed its pythag by 6-8 games (I forget which) in part because they had a great bullpen but they have lost Logan and Rivera.  Ichiro had a 522 OPS in the 2nd half, Jeter will be a statue at SS and Ryan hits like a pitcher, Tex is in serious age related decline even without the wrist, and now he has no protection. Arod is beiung suspended for at least 100 games. CC is also in decline and had his worst season ever, and Pineda is probably not ready in the 1st half. Uggghh.
 
I understand with the concerns of the latter years of the contract with Cano, but where you going to get 6 WAR for 4 million per WAR in 2014.  The guy was a horse missing only 14 games in 7 years.  The problem with the Arod deal was not so much with the contract as much as the fact the farm system stopped providing talent to subsidize it.  If they fixed the farm system Cano could be carried in the last 3 years.  Assuming 5% salary inflation, whats 24 million worth in 2022 anyways?  They just have to make sure they don't have any other dead weight contracts that size at the time.
 
If fiscally responsible means losing 75-100 million in revenue to save 50 million in expenses I have to laugh.  Yankee fans should get used to seeing Ellsbury stranded at 2B with that lineup

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, they're going to be bad, but to me that was never in doubt. What I'm really curious about is what their plan is for 2015 and beyond, because guys like Ellsbury and McCann are hardly cornerstone building blocks, and there's not going to be much available in the FA market next winter.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Yeah, they're going to be bad, but to me that was never in doubt. What I'm really curious is what their plan is for 2015 and beyond, because guys like Ellsbury and McCann are hardly cornerstone building blocks, and there's not going to be much available in the FA market next winter.

And Ellsbury, McCann, Teixeira, and ARod are the only starting position players under team control after 2014. There's a big opportunity to remake the roster but how its going to be done isn't really clear to me.

 

[hbk72777]

It's why they play the games. If you told me the Panthers would be a division leader and the Giants would start 0-6, I'd dial Bellevue.
 
Everyone pegged the Yankees as a 4th/5th place team last year along with the Red Sox. We'll know around Mid June.

 

[mauf]

Yeah, they're going to be bad, but to me that was never in doubt. What I'm really curious about is what their plan is for 2015 and beyond, because guys like Ellsbury and McCann are hardly cornerstone building blocks, and there's not going to be much available in the FA market next winter.


You can always add talent if you're willing to overpay. There will always be guys like Andre Ethier and Ryan Dempster who will be available to anyone willing to eat the entire remaining contract.

 

[nattysez]

If they stay under $189 this year, they're going to be well-positioned to take on all kinds of bad contracts in future years.  Trading a scrub for the last year or two of the contracts of Papelbon, CJ Wilson, etc., might be attractive, and it's possible such players have a little left in the tank.  They also could try an approach where they take on really bad deals (like Pujols, Hamilton, Crawford, Kemp, Andrus), but insist on getting a really good prospect in return for eating the whole contract.  They could essentially buy some good prospects that way while also sporting some marquee names.  
 
Edit -- Got distracted while posting and got beaten to the punch by maufman...

 

[In my lifetime]

And Ellsbury, McCann, Teixeira, and ARod are the only starting position players under team control after 2014. There's a big opportunity to remake the roster but how its going to be done isn't really clear to me.

 
 
Yea and amazingly they get those 4 players, CC and Johnson and only have 109 Million dollars committed in 2015.  They are the epitome of fiscal responsibility or at least a close second to the Greek government.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I'm hopeful A-Rod never plays another game in a Yankee uniform. Buy him out after the suspension is over. Bring a little integrity back to the franchise. He's toast anyway.

I'm curious what this looks like.  He's owed $61 million from '15-'17, plus home run milestone money that he'll claim he'd earn(he'd certainly earn at least the 660 bonus).
 
Why would he take anything less than this?  And would the Yankees really pay him $70 million to go away?  That might be the moral high ground, but doesn't sound fiscally responsible.
 
Maybe I'm missing something.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

So replace Ichiro with Beltran in your original lineup. Oh boy. They should bring a keg and station it near first base.

They are making a big bet on their training staff to keep these guys active.

They have to think they are going to get two big FA pitchers in 2015. Scherzer? Kershaw? Lester?

 

[TomRicardo]

The only way this gets better is if we find out tomorrow ARod is only getting 50 games.  Imagine an IF of ARod, Jeter, Soriano, and Teixeira.  

 

[TomRicardo]

Ellsbury
Jeter
McCann
Teixeira
Beltran
ARod
Soriano
Ichiro
Gardener
 
Cervilli
Johnson
Wells
Ryan
 
 
Sabathia
Kuroda
Nova
Pineda
Phelps
 
Robertson
Kelley
Betances
Claiborne
???
???
???
 
So there you go.  With ARod that is ~200 million.

 

[ponch73]

3) That Teixiera will be the same hitter he was before serious wrist surgery?

 
Based on the following article, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect Teixeira to be a hybrid of Papi in 2009 and Bautista in 2013 given the similarity in injuries and ages?
 
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1685718-what-kind-of-player-will-mark-teixeira-be-after-major-wrist-surgery
 
ORTIZ 2009:        .332 / .462 / .794
BAUTISTA 2013:  .358 / .498 / .856
 
In other words, something like Teixeira in 2011 when he was a 120 OPS+ / 3.0 bWAR type of player with a .341 / .494 / .835 profile.

 

[TomRicardo]

So he is going to have a similar year to what he had two years before a serious wrist injury?  

 

[flymrfreakjar]

 
Based on the following article, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect Teixeira to be a hybrid of Papi in 2009 and Bautista in 2013 given the similarity in injuries and ages?
 
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1685718-what-kind-of-player-will-mark-teixeira-be-after-major-wrist-surgery
 
ORTIZ 2009:        .332 / .462 / .794
BAUTISTA 2013:  .358 / .498 / .856
 
In other words, something like Teixeira in 2011 when he was a 120 OPS+ / 3.0 bWAR type of player with a .341 / .494 / .835 profile.

 
Why would Teixeira be the median between two completely different players' stat lines?
 
Even just using the stats you've posted above, Teixeira's most recent season (ignoring his 50 ABs in 2013) saw his numbers continue their decline to a 322/475/807 line (though he did miss 30 games or so).
 
Ortiz's season before his injury was 369/507/877 and followed up with 322/462/794, by far the worst of his Boston career.
 
Bautista's season before his injury was 358/527/886 (one could argue these were affected by playing through the wrist injury, as his previous two seasons, and the start to that season, were around a 1000 OPS). That was followed up with 358/498/856.
 
That's a pretty steep decline in both players really, and even if you go back to Tex's 2011 and project/regress from there (argument being that he was hurt in 2012), you're still looking at a well below average player. I'd be very surprised to see him come close to those 2011 numbers.

 

[terrynever]

You knew this was coming. Yanks interested in Johan Santana, according to NY Post:
 
http://nypost.com/2013/12/11/yankees-interested-in-johan-santana/

 

[Sampo Gida]

You knew this was coming. Yanks interested in Johan Santana, according to NY Post:
 
http://nypost.com/2013/12/11/yankees-interested-in-johan-santana/

 
Still bummed they did not get Colon at 2/20.  Guy has the 7th best ERA among AL starters with at least 500 IP the last 3 years, at 3.22, slightly behind Fister at 3.20.

 

[jon abbey]

Boone Logan goes to COL for 3/15 (!!!). 

 

[Wingack]

Yankees apparently offered Infante 3/24.

 

[derekson]

Weird to see the Yankees outbid by the Royals on a potential starting position player. Outbid on a random reliever, sure, but Infante would be an important piece after Cano's departure.
 
Is anybody still doubting the $189M mandate after stuff like this?

 

[melonbag]

Weird to see the Yankees outbid by the Royals on a potential starting position player. 
 

 
I think this is the 3rd time this offseason, if you count Cano and Beltran (even though he still signed with NY).  

 

[jon abbey]

Boone Logan goes to COL for 3/15 (!!!). 

 
I have to note this ended up even higher, 3/16.5. Cesar Cabral, come on down!

 

[TheoShmeo]

Nicky Cafardo speculates today that Papelbon may be headed to the Novelle Toillette as a Rivera replacement.  Putting aside that Nicky is a lazy waste of space who just repeats what he last heard without any perceptible investigation, given the Yankees' apparent infatuation with collecting former Sox stars and Paps' desire for the big stage and Mariano love, this doesn't seem all that far fetched.  Except when you consider the impact on the budget.

 

[Granite Sox]

I thought the other amusing element of that note is that Cafardo includes a quote... with no attribution.  There is a vague allusion to "many scouts", but no identification of the actual quoter.
 
I choose to believe Cafardo quoted himself, a la Manish Mehta.

 

[k-factory]

Weird to see the Yankees outbid by the Royals on a potential starting position player. Outbid on a random reliever, sure, but Infante would be an important piece after Cano's departure.
 
Is anybody still doubting the $189M mandate after stuff like this?

 
 
The fiscal constraint may be real but they did sign Johnson and while he is obviously no Cano or even Infante, the calculus presumably is Beltran makes up for the overall production loss there. Not to mention the return of Teixeira and (ignoring the financial implications) the possibility of having more than the 44 games they got from A-Rod in 2013.
 
They may just be saving their pennies and the true tell is going to be how they handle the Tanaka situation who may well end up being posted.
The thing about such a relatively small posting fee is how much competition there will be for his services and how much greater his resulting contract will end up being (he is only 25!). Much easier to make the case for blowing past the limit if the move is to set your rotation up for the future. If he goes elsewhere they may end up under the limit but with major question marks on the pitching side of the ledger.

 

[nattysez]

In the wake of them letting Mark Ellis, a perfectly competent 2b, sign with St. Louis to be a back-up to Kolten Wong, I think the MFY are letting the ARod and Tanaka decisions dictate what they do for the rest of this year.  If they win the Tanaka bidding (in whatever form it may take) or Slappy doesn't get a full-year suspension, they bid adieu to $189, sign Drew to play 2b, and otherwise throw financial caution to the wind.  If they miss on Tanaka and ARod is out for 2014, they stick with $189 -- perhaps even trading Ichiro or Gardner to give them more room under the cap -- and go nuts next year in light of all their new-found savings.

 

[jon abbey]

I don't think they're going after Tanaka anymore, I think they're basically done spending no matter what happens with A-Rod. Aren't they pretty close to $189M already even without any A-Rod money counting?

 

[Sampo Gida]

Weird to see the Yankees outbid by the Royals on a potential starting position player. Outbid on a random reliever, sure, but Infante would be an important piece after Cano's departure.
 
Is anybody still doubting the $189M mandate after stuff like this?

 
Thing is the Yankees are being outbid on years and not AAV.  The number of years has zero impact on the 2014 LT, it's all about the AAV. In fact if 189 was the priority you would think they would not mind tacking on an extra year or two to lower the AAV. 

 

[Montana Fan]

I don't think they're going after Tanaka anymore, I think they're basically done spending no matter what happens with A-Rod. Aren't they pretty close to $189M already even without any A-Rod money counting?

 
 
I think they could be in on Drew if A-Rod's suspension gets reduced. If they're going to be over they could really use Drew on a multi year deal.  Maybe he'd have to bounce around the infield for one season prior to being their regular SS but I'd be surprised if Jeter holds up for much more than 80 games this year.
 
Second, I think the $189 limit is too low.  It should be $225-250 million IMO.  There's so much money in baseball and if the owners want to spend it, they should be able to and the players should get the opportunity to earn it.

 

[Sampo Gida]

 
 
I think they could be in on Drew if A-Rod's suspension gets reduced. If they're going to be over they could really use Drew on a multi year deal.  Maybe he'd have to bounce around the infield for one season prior to being their regular SS but I'd be surprised if Jeter holds up for much more than 80 games this year.
 
Second, I think the $189 limit is too low.  It should be $225-250 million IMO.  There's so much money in baseball and if the owners want to spend it, they should be able to and the players should get the opportunity to earn it.

 
I have them at about 200 million with Arod assuming the rest of the roster spots (arb and pre-arb) are filled out at 15 million,  If Arods entire 27.5 million is off the books they could sign Drew or Tanaka.  I think a conservative estimate is Arod gets 100 games, which puts them in the low 180's and probably shuts down their spending if the 189'ers are in charge. If so, I guess an 85 W team is competitive in their mind.
 
As for the LT threshold, nothing stopping teams from going over 189.  If the Yankees went to 220 they pay a 15 million tax and lose out on the rebates.  Since they have averaged paying over 20 million a year in LT for the last decade and have much higher revenues with the new stadium, which has also reduced their revenues sharing obligations, it boggles my mind that they are so fixated on 189 (and if they just want to reset the tax rate and spend 220 million next year they save all of 10 million-LOL)

 

[LeoCarrillo]

I agree with the notion that if A-Rod's suspension gets reduced (decision supposedly coming in January) and therefore blow past 189, then they may as well start spending.

I wonder to what, if any, extent that has been vocalized, intimated or even if it's in the minds of agents. If you're repping Garza, Ubaldo, Drew, why not sit tight and see if the Yankees are gonna be in the mix.

 

[glennhoffmania]

I'm still baffled by the plan to sign Beltran instead of a pitcher or an infielder.  If they end up sticking to the 189m cap and ARod is suspended for at least a chunk of the season they are very thin at both spots.  If they end up blowing past the cap I don't understand letting Cano walk.  I'm in the middle of a prolonged debate with a Yankee fan who's trying to convince me that Cano was just too expensive and getting an "elite bat" like Beltran made a ton of sense whether they stay under the cap or not.  SSS, but based on the reactions of the NY fans I've talked to the Kool-Aid must've been especially potent this winter.

 

[jon abbey]

Don't try to make sense of it, it will just hurt your head. And don't argue with Yankee fans at this point, just giggle at them and feel sorry (or not, we've had plenty of success in our time).

 

[glennhoffmania]

It's mostly entertainment at this point.  I really thought that this friend and I could finally agree on something Yankee-related (Beltran), and since then he's sent me long emails explaining why the move was brilliant.  Just today he argued that Ortiz is getting paid almost as much at a similar age so there's no way I could argue that Beltran is overpaid.  And this is an otherwise pretty smart guy.

 

[terrynever]

Now I know why my head hurts every day. Thanks, JA.
 
Pineda is a key guy for the Yanks this season. If he rebounds, they have a chance. If he's nothing, that's a problem.

 

[jon abbey]

Here comes the youth movement!  :smithicide:
 
Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS5m
in addition to mark reynolds, also on #yankees radar are michael young and brian roberts

 

[rembrat]

Jesus Christ.

 

[Brianish]

It's like some wonderful wonderful dream. 

 

[Murderer's Crow]

If I tried my absolute hardest to come up with reasoning for what they've done this offseason, all I can muster is that if they get Tanaka, they can trick people into thinking it's a brand new team.

 

[MakMan44]

Brian Roberts wouldn't be the worst thing in the world on a MiL deal. 

 

[glennhoffmania]

It would be pretty awesome if they blew the cap because they signed Reynolds or Roberts.  I have nothing else to add because I have no idea what the hell they're doing.

 

[Sampo Gida]

If I tried my absolute hardest to come up with reasoning for what they've done this offseason, all I can muster is that if they get Tanaka, they can trick people into thinking it's a brand new team.

 
It has been a puzzle.  Makes me wonder if Goldman Sachs is calling the shots. If so Bud better prepare to bail them out from financial ruin, not due to excessive spending but due to plummeting revenues.
 
It is a pretty new team from the perspective of position players.  The opening day lineup will likely only have 1 player who was in it last year (Gardner, 2 if Nunez is at 3B).  Everyone else is either new or off the DL.  It's not a bad strategy, and fans may give them a pass for a couple of months until they figure out that losing is no more fun with the new guys.  Pitching is the same minus Pettitte, Rivera, Logan, Joba and Hughes.  While the pitching was their strength for most of the year , at the end it was their achilles heal, and it is weaker now.
 
If they get Tanaka, 189 is blown out of the water and they will be an 88-90 W team, plus/minus.   There would be no reason for them to stop there.  When you consider they earned 72 million in post season revenue in 2009, whats a little luxury tax,  Each incremental win could be worth as much as 10 million to them.  But I really don't know if they are even looking at this.
 
Its almost like they are trying to reduce long term payroll obligations and reset the tax to make the business more attractive to a future buyer.    But there is no evidence to suggest they would be selling, other than this speculation a couple of years ago
 
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-sale-rumors-swirl-baseball-banking-cirlcles-sources-article-1.1083600
 
So that probably not it either.

 

[jon abbey]

Does anyone really still believe NY's main goal is to contend this year?
 
Yanks could go from Robinson Cano to Dean Anna at second base