2014 NBA Draft Thread (No Spoilers You Clowns)

[bowiac]

I'm sure it will always be a problem,. The question is can he improve to a respectable level. If he can shore up his form and is hitting 65% or better then who cares, it would at that point be a minor weakness. There are plenty of guys in the league who can't shoot FTs at even 70% for their career (Duncan 69, Rondo 62, Griffin 64. etc.)

I agree there - I just meant we don't have much reason to think he's more likely to improve in that regard than most guys. Free throw percentage are oddly stable - surprisingly few guys have real improvement over the course of their careers, in contrast to three point shooting, which is comparatively common to see improvement in.

 

[DJnVa]

So, with word that Cleveland may deal the #1 pick, who's going to want to jump up there?
 
If Danny wants Embiid, would Cleveland take #6 and a future #1 along with a player? What's the price?

 

[Cellar-Door]

So, with word that Cleveland may deal the #1 pick, who's going to want to jump up there?
 
If Danny wants Embiid, would Cleveland take #6 and a future #1 along with a player? What's the price?

Cleveland is going to trade it in a package for a star, or draft Embiid, they're not to move down to pick up a mediocre player.
Love makes sense if they can convince him to give them a private assurance he'll resign.

 

[SuperManny]

Cleveland is going to trade it in a package for a star, or draft Embiid, they're not to move down to pick up a mediocre player.
Love makes sense if they can convince him to give them a private assurance he'll resign.

 
That didn't work out well for them with Carlos Boozer. 

 

[ivanvamp]

I'm not a Sully guy and I'll say that Randle will have done good to be Sully's equivalent. To me Randle is absolute garbage at the next level. He won't get his mid-range jumper off with his alligator arms and wind up release, he had trouble even getting his shot off at the rim in college now will go up against longer and quicker bigs, and he isn't much of a defender. To me I'd have to ask.....what does he do against an NBA caliber 4?

 
Randle has alligator arms?  I know that's been a meme around here, but he stands 6'7 3/4", and has a 7'0" wingspan, as measured at the combine (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Julius-Randle-6294/).  
 
Your wingspan should equal your height, so to have a wingspan more than four inches longer than your height means you have long arms, not short ones.

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
Randle has alligator arms?  I know that's been a meme around here, but he stands 6'7 3/4", and has a 7'0" wingspan, as measured at the combine (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Julius-Randle-6294/).  
 
Your wingspan should equal your height, so to have a wingspan more than four inches longer than your height means you have long arms, not short ones.

He doesn't have alligator arms, but by NBA standards he definitely doesn't have long arms. No player measured at the combine who was 6'9" or taller had a shorter wingspan than Randle.
There was a nice article about his wingspan issues:
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/1/2/5258332/julius-randle-nba-draft-prospect-2013
Basically the 3 PF with smaller wingspans are:
Griffin (who makes up for it in part with ridiculous jumping ability, but also struggles against bigger defenders on the block)
Kevin Love- an incredible shooter
Thad Young (another leaper)
 
All three are also among the worst at the rim defenders in the NBA (Love and Young might be the two worst big men at defending the rim in the whole league).
 
The common comparison for Randle was been Randolph, as another 6'9" lefty who doesn't get up high. But Z-Bo has a 7'4" wingspan.

 

[Buck Showalter]

Is there any chance - if the Celtics keep #6 - that Danny drafts Zach LaVine?
 
Seems like a guy that would be a top 3 pick if he were to play one more season at UCLA.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Is there any chance - if the Celtics keep #6 - that Danny drafts Zach LaVine?
 
Seems like a guy that would be a top 3 pick if he were to play one more season at UCLA.

At 6, no way, a number of places project him to still be there for us at 17 though.
 
Edit- going back to Gordon and FTs, he told SI that he used a different stroke for his free throws than his normal jumper, and he has spent the last 2 months working with the same release point on both shots.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
Randle has alligator arms?  I know that's been a meme around here, but he stands 6'7 3/4", and has a 7'0" wingspan, as measured at the combine (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Julius-Randle-6294/).  
 
Your wingspan should equal your height, so to have a wingspan more than four inches longer than your height means you have long arms, not short ones.

That is not correct. I mean maybe if your an accountant your wingspan should equal your height but relatively speaking a 7-foot wingspan for an NBA 4 is an extremely short wingspan.

Most importantly this isn't one of those combine numbers that gives you false hope about a player (like McDermott's vertical or Jimmer Fredette's shuttle time)......all season long Randle struggled getting his shot off in the paint and will now be facing even longer and quicker bigs. He's going to really have trouble in this league.

 

[DJnVa]

That is not correct. I mean maybe if your an accountant your wingspan should equal your height but relatively speaking a 7-foot wingspan for an NBA 4 is an extremely short wingspan.

Most importantly this isn't one of those combine numbers that gives you false hope about a player (like McDermott's vertical or Jimmer Fredette's shuttle time)......all season long Randle struggled getting his shot off in the paint and will now be facing even longer and quicker bigs. He's going to really have trouble in this league.

 
NBA wingspan measurements: http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements.php?year=All&sort2=DESC&draft=&pos=&source=All&sort=5

 

[Brickowski]

LOL. what's striking about the DraftExpress list is how few of the measured players with 7-5 wingspans or better turned out to be decent NBA players.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Eh, I imagine that the only reason most of those guys were considered prospects worthy of the combine in the first place was due to their freakish wingspans. Guys with normal wingspans generally have to have basketball skills to be considered NBA prospects.

 

[Brickowski]

Eh, I imagine that the only reason most of those guys were considered prospects worthy of the combine in the first place was due to their freakish wingspans. Guys with normal wingspans generally have to have basketball skills to be considered NBA prospects.

Sure, plus most of them were on the tall side.

 

[Devizier]

Eh, I imagine that the only reason most of those guys were considered prospects worthy of the combine in the first place was due to their freakish wingspans. Guys with normal wingspans generally have to have basketball skills to be considered NBA prospects.

 
Well, sure, but it means that the league still overvalues certain "measurables" relative to the things that produce results on a basketball court.
 
This is analogous to something like square footage or number of bedrooms in the housing market. Those things are valuable up to a threshold, but overpriced beyond it.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

 
Well, sure, but it means that the league still overvalues certain "measurables" relative to the things that produce results on a basketball court.
 
This is analogous to something like square footage or number of bedrooms in the housing market. Those things are valuable up to a threshold, but overpriced beyond it.

 
I can't access the draftexpress link anymore, but I don't think I even knew a lot of the names on the list- how many of those guys with giant wingspans were actually drafted, and what's their average draft position?  

 

[Devizier]

 
I can't access the draftexpress link anymore, but I don't think I even knew a lot of the names on the list- how many of those guys with giant wingspans were actually drafted, and what's their average draft position?  

 
That is a good question. The best that could be (relatively) easily done is to look at the listed heights of players and seeing how those correlate with outcomes relative to draft position. Those pre-draft measurables have a nasty habit of disappearing from the internet (maybe because they're bullshit? I have no idea).

 

[doc]

That is not correct. I mean maybe if your an accountant your wingspan should equal your height but relatively speaking a 7-foot wingspan for an NBA 4 is an extremely short wingspan.

 

The average person's wingspan is 1.01 times your height, in the NBA the average ratio is 1.06.  79.75 x 1.06 = 84.48 or 7' and 1/2 in, so Randle is short by 0.5 in, or has a ratio of 1.053

 

[southshoresoxfan]

Wingspan talk is the vorp of nba draft analysis

 

[JakeRae]

So, if Embiid is on the board at 3, and the Celtics are offering their 2 picks this year to move up, who says no? It seems like Philly doesn't really have much use for Embiid, Exum, or Smart. Dropping down would probably position them perfectly to add Randle and a couple wings later in the draft and they'd have a pretty interesting, if extraordinarily young, roster.
 
Just to be clear, this hypothetical question only exists in a world where Wiggins and Parker are the top 2 picks. If either of those guys are left, the Sixers are not going to trade out as either player is exactly the sort of guy they need. 

 

[Cellar-Door]

So, if Embiid is on the board at 3, and the Celtics are offering their 2 picks this year to move up, who says no? It seems like Philly doesn't really have much use for Embiid, Exum, or Smart. Dropping down would probably position them perfectly to add Randle and a couple wings later in the draft and they'd have a pretty interesting, if extraordinarily young, roster.
 
Just to be clear, this hypothetical question only exists in a world where Wiggins and Parker are the top 2 picks. If either of those guys are left, the Sixers are not going to trade out as either player is exactly the sort of guy they need. 

I think Philly says no. However I don't think it happens, I think Embiid is going #1.

 

[Brickowski]

I think Embiid is going #1.

Me too, unless his bad back scares teams away.

 

[Kliq]

A lot of the sources I have read have all said that Embiid is going number one. The GM's before the lottery were all talking about taking the best player, and Cleveland is saying they are open to trades, but make no mistake about it, unless Embiid has a legit awful back that wouldn't allow him to play, the Cavs are definitely taking him. And even if he does have a terrible back, the Cavs might take him anyways, I mean this is a team that thought it was a good idea to give Andrew Bynum $12.5 million dollars (different GM, I know).

 

[radsoxfan]

That is not correct. I mean maybe if your an accountant your wingspan should equal your height but relatively speaking a 7-foot wingspan for an NBA 4 is an extremely short wingspan.
 

 
Let's not forget our own Kelly Olynyk.  6'10.75" without shoes, 6'9.75" wingspan. Maybe he should have been an accountant…..
 
Kelly actually managed to have a surprisingly good rebounding year, but of course his rim protection/defense is not good.

 

[Swedgin]

 
Let's not forget our own Kelly Olynyk.  6'10.75" without shoes, 6'9.75" wingspan. Maybe he should have been an accountant…..
 
Kelly actually managed to have a surprisingly good rebounding year, but of course his rim protection/defense is not good.

 
Kelly can also shoot the ball, and as his draft profile describes, is "exceptionally skilled for his size."   That skill allowed him to have a .629 FG in college and allows him to project as a stretch big in the NBA.  Most importantly Kelly was drafted 13th in the weakest draft in some time.  
 
For the record, I have no problem with the Celtics taking alligator arms Randle with the 17th pick.

 

[The Mort Report]

I was curious what players have been picked at 6 the last 10 drafts.  It made me a little sick and killed most of my enthusiasm
Last 10:
Childress
M Webster
Roy
Yi
Gallinari
Flynn
Udoh
Vesely
Lilliard
Noel
 
Besides Lilliard, only Roy produced until his knees imploded.  Too soon obviously on Noel, but I see nothing but guys out of the league or role players.  Sure there were guys taken later that are better, but thats a scary thought when most of us want to see the Celts pull a franchise player out of the draft.  I know this draft is deep, but I dont know if I want to take the chance on a prospect if the Celts can trade it for someone like Love.  I understand the cost controlled argument, but if they don't produce its a worthless asset, where Love is a known commodity 

 

[mcpickl]

So, if Embiid is on the board at 3, and the Celtics are offering their 2 picks this year to move up, who says no? It seems like Philly doesn't really have much use for Embiid, Exum, or Smart. Dropping down would probably position them perfectly to add Randle and a couple wings later in the draft and they'd have a pretty interesting, if extraordinarily young, roster.
 
Just to be clear, this hypothetical question only exists in a world where Wiggins and Parker are the top 2 picks. If either of those guys are left, the Sixers are not going to trade out as either player is exactly the sort of guy they need. 

Philly
 
Nobody is trading down out of the top 3 for any offer that they'd reasonably receive.
 
Reverse the question, if Boston had hit on a top 3 pick, would you want them to trade down for two lower picks?
 
I'd guess not. No other team would do it either.

 

[Devizier]

I was curious what players have been picked at 6 the last 10 drafts.  It made me a little sick and killed most of my enthusiasm
Last 10:
Childress
M Webster
Roy
Yi
Gallinari
Flynn
Udoh
Vesely
Lilliard
Noel
y 

Roy was great, agreed. Lillard is probably a slight notch below. I think Chilly and Gallinari are probably what you could reasonably hope for from #6, but based on that list, Webster or possibly Noel is the median expectation. Uninspiring indeed.

 

[The Mort Report]

http://tracking.si.com/2014/05/22/kings-looking-to-trade-pick-youth-veteran-nba-draft/?eref=sihp
 
apparently the Kings want to trade out of the 8th for a vet.  think the Celts might be able to trade Bass/17th for the 8th?
 
edit: I'm sure the Celts will have to take on salary

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

http://tracking.si.com/2014/05/22/kings-looking-to-trade-pick-youth-veteran-nba-draft/?eref=sihp
 
apparently the Kings want to trade out of the 8th for a vet.  think the Celts might be able to trade Bass/17th for the 8th?
 
edit: I'm sure the Celts will have to take on salary

I'm assuming the Celtics are also including the 6th in your proposal? If so, makes no sense for the Celtics. And if not, why the fuck would the kings want Bass for?

 

[The Mort Report]

I'm assuming the Celtics are also including the 6th in your proposal? If so, makes no sense for the Celtics. And if not, why the fuck would the kings want Bass for?

 
Because this is what I view as Bass' value.  To move up 9 spots in the draft.  The Kings starting PF was Reggie frigin Evans.  He provides all the intangibles that a young SAC squad could use, fills a need, and doesn't need the ball to be effective, which is important for SAC with IT2, Cousins and Gay(assuming they all come back).  He can mentor Cousins.  Not only are the chances to get a Bass level player with the 8th pick is highly unlikely, it might take years for that player to develop to that level.  If they are really trying to win now, he makes absolute sense.  
 
And do you really see the Celtics getting more than that for him?  The Celtics wont fleece everyone in every trade, which everyone seems to shoot for.  Would anyone here really be upset with moving from 17 to 8 at the cost of Bass?
 
Could I have the price wrong? Absolutely, but you are ignorant to assume the Kings would want nothing to do with Bass

 

[ALiveH]

the only reason roy lasted till 6 was b/c of his knees, so that should make you sadder. 
 
OTOH #6 in this draft is as good as #4 in an average draft if you believe the hype.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The average person's wingspan is 1.01 times your height, in the NBA the average ratio is 1.06.  79.75 x 1.06 = 84.48 or 7' and 1/2 in, so Randle is short by 0.5 in, or has a ratio of 1.053

Now take the PG's and 2's/3's out of that NBA average and you'll find the players Randle would be matching up against if he were a starting 4 will have 3-5 inches of length advantage over him. Why did he have such problems getting his shot off in the paint against non-NBA frontcourt length?

 

[lman4201]

 
That is a good question. The best that could be (relatively) easily done is to look at the listed heights of players and seeing how those correlate with outcomes relative to draft position. Those pre-draft measurables have a nasty habit of disappearing from the internet (maybe because they're bullshit? I have no idea).

Using the data from DraftExpress, the average ratio of wingspan to height is 1.049.  There were 2305 players with complete height and wingspan data, 638 of whom were drafted. That is a rate of approximately 27.7%. There were 1147 players who measured wingspan to height ratios greater than the mean, 360 of whom were drafted. This percentage of 31.4% is slightly greater than the draft-rate of the total population, suggesting a (very) slight preference to “longer” players (or simply that they are generally better at basketball).
I calculated a correlation coefficient using the pool of players drafted to determine if there was a relationship between draft position and wingspan to height ratio, but I’m pretty sure there is a better way to figure that out, I got an r of -.07.  
Anecdotally, there seemed to be very few elite players in the lower range of wingspan/height ratio.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Great stuff, thanks for putting in the legwork.  

 

[Devizier]

 
Anecdotally, there seemed to be very few elite players in the lower range of wingspan/height ratio.

love it. Just a question -- who were the elite low proportion guys?

 

[lman4201]

love it. Just a question -- who were the elite low proportion guys?

Kelly Olynyk and Brian Scalabrine.
 
Steph Curry and Kyrie are tied for 86th when sorting by lowest ratio, and before you get to them you don't do much better than Monta Ellis and OJ Mayo. It's basically a who's-who of mediocre white guys.
Joakim Noah actually has a comparable ratio to Blake Griffin (1.033:1.034), and he seems to do OK defensively. 
 
Edit: After looking through the list of drafted players, it struck me how few "elite" players had a low ratio.  Using everybody's favorite metric, I looked for the top 20 in PER and listed their numbers below.  Almost all of them have well above average WS/Ht ratios.
 

Top 20 PER Wingspan/Height

Rank	Name	HEIGHT (IN)	Wingspan (IN)	Drafted	WS/Ht
1	Kevin Durant	81	88	2	1.086
2	LeBron James	79.25	84.25	1	1.063
3	Kevin Love	79.75	83.25	5	1.044
4	Anthony Davis	81	86	1	1.062
5	DeMarcus Cousins	81.5	89.75	4	1.101
6	Chris Paul	71.75	76.25	4	1.063
7	Brook Lopez	83.25	89.5	10	1.075
8	Russell Westbrook	74.25	79.75	4	1.074
9	Carmelo Anthony	78.25	84	3	1.073
10	Stephen Curry	74	75.5	8	1.02
11	Blake Griffin	80.5	83.25	1	1.034
12	Dirk Nowitzki	82	Not Recorded	9
13	Brandan Wright	80.75	87.75	8	1.087
14	James Harden	76	82.75	3	1.089
15	Al Jefferson	80.5	86.5	15	1.075
16	Andre Drummond	81.75	90.25	9	1.104
17	Al Horford	80.75	84.75	3	1.05
18	Dwyane Wade	75.75	82.75	5	1.092
19	LaMarcus Aldridge	82	88.75	2	1.082
20	Goran Dragic	75	Not Recorded	45

 

 

[bowiac]

Using the data from DraftExpress, the average ratio of wingspan to height is 1.049.  There were 2305 players with complete height and wingspan data, 638 of whom were drafted. That is a rate of approximately 27.7%. There were 1147 players who measured wingspan to height ratios greater than the mean, 360 of whom were drafted. This percentage of 31.4% is slightly greater than the draft-rate of the total population, suggesting a (very) slight preference to “longer” players (or simply that they are generally better at basketball).
I calculated a correlation coefficient using the pool of players drafted to determine if there was a relationship between draft position and wingspan to height ratio, but I’m pretty sure there is a better way to figure that out, I got an r of -.07.  
Anecdotally, there seemed to be very few elite players in the lower range of wingspan/height ratio.

I have previously done some research on this, but there is also a relationship between arm length (as opposed to wingspan ratio) and shooting (long and mid range 2s and 3s).

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

Another important component to consider in draft evaluation, at least for Danny Ainge, is brain-typing.
 
http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2007/06/just-who-is-brain-doctor-anyway.html
 

Whether brain typing is science or guesswork, it is here to stay as long as Danny Ainge is the GM. I would say that his brain typing advice is about 50-50 at this point. It seems to have worked for our draft picks but has failed considerably when it comes to trades and free agents so far. 
 

 
It led to a 5-year contract for Brian Scalabrine, so there's that.

 

[bowiac]

Dear god.

 

[Devizier]

Niednagel is still around?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Another important component to consider in draft evaluation, at least for Danny Ainge, is brain-typing.
 
http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2007/06/just-who-is-brain-doctor-anyway.html
 
 
It led to a 5-year contract for Brian Scalabrine, so there's that.

 
Wonder how Brad Stevens feels about brain typing?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
Wonder how Brad Stevens feels about brain typing?

Pretty good I'd imagine. It got him a 6-year deal.

 

[amfox1]

Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA  7m
Watching Joel Embiid in workout for league executives in Santa Monica. Impossible to imagine passing on him at No. 1.

 
Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider  2m
Embiid quickly re-asserting claim to # 1 pick here. Added muscle, still has quick feet & a beautiful jumper. No evidence of back issues

 

[amfox1]

I am assuming Embiid, Wiggins, Parker, Exum as first four picks, which means BOS will get to pick from Vonleh, Smart, Randle and Gordon.

 

[ivanvamp]

I think the first three, at least, are pretty solid.  
 
Who here is pumped about one of the last four?  Maybe just from Vonleh, Smart, and Randle, assuming Gordon goes #5 perhaps.

 

[ALiveH]

on wingspan ratio Randle would be right in the same ballpark as Love, Horford and Griffin.  Doesn't sound like a total deal-breaker to me.  He's still young and can improve his offensive repertoire & range signficantly.
 
i'd be fine with any of smart, randle, vonleh or gordon.  Slight preference for Vonleh, slightly scared by gordon, and fine with Randle or Smart.  It's a really tough decision & I trust DA.

 

[moly99]

If we draft Randle then who protects the rim? A team that plays Randle, Sullinger and Olynyk is going to give up a ton of layups.
 
Vonleh would be a godsend. He could be Chris Bosh with better defense and rebounding.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

Holy hyperbole batman. Vonleh would be a godsend? Wow.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

And i wouldnt worry about roles such as rim protecting right now. Accum the most talent you can and move forward. Good chance neither the 6 pick nor sully and esp olynyk will be here when this team becomes good again

 

[JakeRae]

If we draft Randle then who protects the rim? A team that plays Randle, Sullinger and Olynyk is going to give up a ton of layups.
 
Vonleh would be a godsend. He could be Chris Bosh with better defense and rebounding.

 
If anyone thought Vonleh was likely to be Bosh with better defense and rebounding, he would be the number 1 pick in this draft, even accounting for how strong the top 3 is. Because, Bosh+ is a true franchise cornerstone player. Vonleh might get there, but that's a very optimistic ceiling, not a projection.