2014 NBA Draft Thread (No Spoilers You Clowns)

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,814
This 3 position Vonleh talk I think is overly optimistic.  I'm skeptical of his ability as a full-time rim protecting center, but he is much more of a center than a small forward. He should be looked at as strictly a 4/5.  I don't think there is a single small forward in the league Vonleh can stay with. 
 

Swedgin

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2013
703
radsoxfan said:
Rondo is at 62% for his career, and I don't think the Celtics have particularly susceptible to big comebacks because of him.  Certainly 60% is not good, and you will want to sub him out at times with the lead if you can.  But overall, I think it's a pretty minor consideration compared to the rest of a players skillset when considering drafting someone.  
 
Scoring 1.2 points per possession (and it would be more when you factor missed 2nd FTs and offensive rebounds) in late game scenarios, even if it allows for extra possessions for both teams, isn't going to lead to lots of comebacks. There are plenty of times the past few years the Celtics would kill for a 120+ offensive efficiency in the last few minutes of a game, regardless of the desire to bleed the clock. 
 
I think you are really understating the impact of being a poor free throw shooter on a wing player's offense, particularly in late game situations.   If a player is both a poor jump shooter and poor free throw shooter, then the defense gets to play 4 on 5, sagging off the wing.   We saw this with Rondo all the time.  It is what keeps Rondo from being a max player and what makes make roster construction with him as part of the core such a challenge.
 
In terms of the broader Vonleh/Gordon debate.   You don't need to project Vonleh as a 5 or a 3 to see the value there.   I doubt he is going to be an elite, Ibaka/Chandler (once upon a time), Larry Sanders, rim protector.   But he can be a good one and do it at the 4.   With regard to Gordon, I like him more than Randle, but I don't see the Marion comp at all.  Marion's shot is ugly as can be, but even as a freshman he had figured out how to be make it a serviceable one.     Maybe a better comp is Josh Smith.   Granted Smith is a better shooter and is an elite shot blocker, but Gordon from all reports has a much better head on his shoulders.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,814
Swedgin said:
 
I think you are really understating the impact of being a poor free throw shooter on a wing player's offense, particularly in late game situations.   If a player is both a poor jump shooter and poor free throw shooter, then the defense gets to play 4 on 5, sagging off the wing.   We saw this with Rondo all the time.  It is what keeps Rondo from being a max player and what makes make roster construction with him as part of the core such a challenge.
 
 
You say free throw shooting is important, then go into an example of why outside shooting is important.  Let's not conflate the two. Teams sag on Rondo because of his outside shooting, not his free throw shooting.
 
I agree being a poor outside shooter is extremely important, and is a major knock on Gordon's game.  If he was a good outside shooter, he would be a no doubt top 3 pick.  I am arguing his other skills make him worth the risk at #6. I just think the particular weakness from the FT line is overblown, and not all that important when compared to the rest of a player's overall game.
 
 
 

Swedgin said:
 
In terms of the broader Vonleh/Gordon debate.   You don't need to project Vonleh as a 5 or a 3 to see the value there.   I doubt he is going to be an elite, Ibaka/Chandler (once upon a time), Larry Sanders, rim protector.   But he can be a good one and do it at the 4.   With regard to Gordon, I like him more than Randle, but I don't see the Marion comp at all.  Marion's shot is ugly as can be, but even as a freshman he had figured out how to be make it a serviceable one.     Maybe a better comp is Josh Smith.   Granted Smith is a better shooter and is an elite shot blocker, but Gordon from all reports has a much better head on his shoulders.
 
 
I think Vonleh has value, and understand the appeal.  I'd prefer Gordon, but agree Vonleh definitely has potential.  I just think people are overstating how many roles he can play on the team.  Some people are saying he can play wing, others are touting him as a rim protecting center.  
 
I don't see his skill set as being that diverse.  I think Vonleh is a PF who can slide over to center depending on match ups and the rest of your team's roster construction.  That doesn't make him a bad prospect at all, it just means I'm not buying the arguments that he has extra value because of all this supposed versatility. 
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
A weird comp for Vonleh given he's only a 2nd year guy himself, but Terrence Jones comes to mind.
 
One more question on the Gordon FT% issue:
 
The reason to think he will be better than 55% is that its very uncommon for someone to consistently be that bad in the NBA.
How common is it for someone to shoot 42% in college and make then NBA?
 
You're correct almost nobody washes out because of free throw shooting, but that's also because almost nobody shoots that poorly in college and gets a chance to wash out even.
 
The issue is exacerbated with Gordon, since most terrible free throw shooters are bigs, and teams expect a certain amount of clunkiness at that position. I can't think of a single comp for Gordon at a wing spot to even make the NBA.
 

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,912
BigSoxFan said:
. Also, I don't really agree with the rim protector stuff. He's more Danny Fortson than he is Joel Embiid.
 
He blocked shots as a freshman at over three times the rate Fortson did in his career at Cincy. He's still at half the rate of Embiid, but he's closer to him than he is to Fortson.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,814
bowiac said:
 
One more question on the Gordon FT% issue:
 
How common is it for someone to shoot 42% in college and make then NBA?
 
You're correct almost nobody washes out because of free throw shooting, but that's also because almost nobody shoots that poorly in college and gets a chance to wash out even.
 
The issue is exacerbated with Gordon, since most terrible free throw shooters are bigs, and teams expect a certain amount of clunkiness at that position. I can't think of a single comp for Gordon at a wing spot to even make the NBA.
 
Gordon's freshman year FT percentage is a huge outlier compared to typical NBA prospects, no doubt.  Maybe someone can figure out if other non centers have had similarly terrible percentages in a single season in college, I don't know.
 
It's certainly possible that Gordon will continue to be a huge outlier and never be able to make 50% of his FTs in the NBA.  Given that it's just one season, I think it's more likely that he is able to improve. Huge outliers in small samples often trend back toward the center.  Maybe not right away, but I would be surprised if he was a sub 50% FT shooter after a couple of years in the NBA. Again, I'm not predicting Gordon will even be a decent FT shooter.  Just that I don't think the he will continue to be a 42% FT shooter. 
 
Obviously it would be nice to have more years of data (anyone know how he shot FT in high school?). I assume part of the FT shooting last year was mental for Gordon, though as you mentioned upthread, I suppose there is no reason to assume that is necessarily easier to fix than something physical. 
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,660
Somewhere
bowiac said:
The issue is exacerbated with Gordon, since most terrible free throw shooters are bigs, and teams expect a certain amount of clunkiness at that position. I can't think of a single comp for Gordon at a wing spot to even make the NBA.
 
Bo Outlaw!
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,638
Dennis Rodman was at 59% and 53% ft his first two years in the NBA
 
Bo Outlaw, as mentioned, was at 52% for his career, and 44% 2 of his first three years in league
 
Bruce Bowen (an interesting comp) was at 57% for his career, though just under 70% in college
 
Others in that range are big men.  
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,630
radsoxfan said:
This 3 position Vonleh talk I think is overly optimistic.  I'm skeptical of his ability as a full-time rim protecting center, but he is much more of a center than a small forward. He should be looked at as strictly a 4/5.  I don't think there is a single small forward in the league Vonleh can stay with. 
Yeah I have concerns over which position Gordon, Smart, McDermott, etc fit to be a full-time starter. I don't have those concerns with Vonleh. He's a 4, period. I don't know what anyone could see in this player to view him at any other position.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,931
bowiac said:
A weird comp for Vonleh given he's only a 2nd year guy himself, but Terrence Jones comes to mind.
 
One more question on the Gordon FT% issue:
 
How common is it for someone to shoot 42% in college and make then NBA?
 
You're correct almost nobody washes out because of free throw shooting, but that's also because almost nobody shoots that poorly in college and gets a chance to wash out even.
 
The issue is exacerbated with Gordon, since most terrible free throw shooters are bigs, and teams expect a certain amount of clunkiness at that position. I can't think of a single comp for Gordon at a wing spot to even make the NBA.
 
I don't see the Terrence Jones comparison at all. Jones is not a good shooter (part of the reason why HOU has been talking about trading for a different PF, one who can stretch the defense and not pack in the paint against Howard) and a different style of player than Vonleh
The comp for Vonleh is Chris Bosh. A 4 (can play the 5 in a pinch) with good shooting ability who, could become a weapon from 3 point range. Vonleh also could definitely not play the 3, he would get torched on dribble drives by more athletic players.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,814
HomeRunBaker said:
Yeah I have concerns over which position Gordon, Smart, McDermott, etc fit to be a full-time starter. I don't have those concerns with Vonleh. He's a 4, period. I don't know what anyone could see in this player to view him at any other position.
And while you never want to draft strictly for need as a rebuilding team, it's worth noting the teams two best prospects are both power forwards.

I certainly think Vonleh can do a better job at the 5 than someone like Sully who was forced into that role last year. But he's not really a great fit for the roster either, unless Danny is convinced he is a rim protecting center. I am very skeptical Vonleh can fill that role.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
35,106
bowiac said:
A weird comp for Vonleh given he's only a 2nd year guy himself, but Terrence Jones comes to mind.
 
One more question on the Gordon FT% issue:
 
How common is it for someone to shoot 42% in college and make then NBA?
 
You're correct almost nobody washes out because of free throw shooting, but that's also because almost nobody shoots that poorly in college and gets a chance to wash out even.
 
 
Drummond shot under 30% on his college FTs. Moved up to 37% then 42% in the pros.
Tristan Thompson shot 48% then in the pros: 55,61,79
DeAndre Jordan: 44%, then in the pros: 43% average over 6 years. Broke 50 once, below 40 twice.
Not quite that low, but Chandler parsons shot 56% his senior year, same year 1 NBA then 73,74.
Chris Webber shot 49% his freshman year, then 55. In the Pros he was a career 65% shooter
Kenyon Martin shot 31% as a freshman then 48,56,68 pros he shot 63% on average.
 
 
I wonder if I am missing guys who had big improvements, since I just am looking up guys who are poor FT shooters in the pros. If someone improved a lot I would miss them.
 
 
EDIT- found the college basketball season finder. I'll look for guys who shot under 50% in a season in college with at least 100 FTA and get some pro % for them
 
Michael Olowakandi- 60% NBA career
Joel Pryzbilia- 56% NBA career
Joey Dorsey- 47% NBA  (impressively his 4 year college high was 43, he was under 40 twice)
Dan Gadzuric- 50% NBA
Larry Sanders- 56% NBA
 

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,912
BigSoxFan said:
Vonleh is more of a space eater than a rim protector. That was my point.
 
And I disagree.  He's a bit of both in that he's strong enough to hold his position down on the block, and he's long enough to alter opposing PFs' shot and provide some weak-side help.  Fortson was certainly the former, and absolutely not the latter.  
 
He's not an elite rim protector, but I think he's above average for an 18 year old prospect who can shoot and rebound like he has shown he can.  On a team with Sullinger and Olynyk in the front court, that's not insignificant.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,814
Cellar-Door said:
 
Drummond shot under 30% on his college FTs. Moved up to 37% then 42% in the pros.
Tristan Thompson shot 48% then in the pros: 55,61,79
DeAndre Jordan: 44%, then in the pros: 43% average over 6 years. Broke 50 once, below 40 twice.
Not quite that low, but Chandler parsons shot 56% his senior year, same year 1 NBA then 73,74.
Chris Webber shot 49% his freshman year, then 55. In the Pros he was a career 65% shooter
Kenyon Martin shot 31% as a freshman then 48,56,68 pros he shot 63% on average.
 
 
I wonder if I am missing guys who had big improvements, since I just am looking up guys who are poor FT shooters in the pros. If someone improved a lot I would miss them.
 
 
EDIT- found the college basketball season finder. I'll look for guys who shot under 50% in a season in college and get some pro % for them
 
Good stuff.  Webber, Martin, and Thompson seem like pretty reasonable comps. 
 
Edit:  just saw your addition.  Looks like a significant majority of these guys are improving their FT percentage and getting at least into the 50's, with some into the 60's.  I think the safe bet is that Gordon can do the same. 
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,105
the bigger issue with Gordon is his path towards becoming an nba star and above average offensive player is much less clear than the other guys in that range who are the same age as him.  for the #6 pick I want somebody with clear potential to be an nba star and above average on offense.  elite athletes and above average defenders who don't do much on offense are usually not franchise players.
 

Swedgin

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2013
703
radsoxfan said:
 
Good stuff.  Webber, Martin, and Thompson seem like pretty reasonable comps. 
 
Edit:  just saw your addition.  Looks like a significant majority of these guys are improving their FT percentage and getting at least into the 50's, with some into the 60's.  I think the safe bet is that Gordon can do the same. 
Webber, the consensus number one overall pick in a strong draft, who had all the tools necessary to be one the greatest power forwards of all time is a "pretty reasonable comp" for Aaron Gordon?
 
 I will give you Thompson, and I have no interest in drafting Thompson 2.0.   
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,814
Swedgin said:
Webber, the consensus number one overall pick in a strong draft, who had all the tools necessary to be one the greatest power forwards of all time is a "pretty reasonable comp" for Aaron Gordon?
 
 I will give you Thompson, and I have no interest in drafting Thompson 2.0.   
 
Chill out.  Not comps for Gordon as a player in the NBA obviously.  Comps for Gordon's FT shooting.  
 
Below 50% shooting forwards in their freshman year in college and their ultimate FT shooting numbers in the NBA. 
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,630
ALiveH said:
the bigger issue with Gordon is his path towards becoming an nba star and above average offensive player is much less clear than the other guys in that range who are the same age as him.  for the #6 pick I want somebody with clear potential to be an nba star and above average on offense.  elite athletes and above average defenders who don't do much on offense are usually not franchise players.
If you're looking for a franchise player at #6 you're barking up te wrong tree. The goal should be to find a guy who can crack your starting lineup but even then only 10 players drafted at #6 over the past 30 drafts ended up being starters in this league.

Once you fall outside of the Top-3 in a draft you're typically selecting players with warts in their games.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,973
I'm in on 7'3" project Walter Taveras. He is a bit awkward and the rigors of the NBA might be difficult for him, but watching him on video, I love his upside. Guy runs the floor very well for a big man, is crazy long and has HUGE hands. His offensive game is mostly just dunks and layups, but he shoots 71% from the line, so I think their is potential for him to develop a soft touch around the basket. Already a pretty decent pick and roll finisher. He needs to get stronger, bigger guys can push him down low, but he can protect the rim pretty well. He is projected as a late first rounder, and if you are 7'3", can run the floor and catch an entry pass, I feel like that is a steal for the late first round.
 
Also, he only started playing basketball in 2010, so whatever he does now is likely only going to improve as he matures.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,210
New York, NY
Vonleh is a 4 with his current body. He's also 19 and has a massive wingspan for his height. It might be that he will stay this size, or he might get taller or add bulk/strength and grow into being a 5. Time will tell on that front.
 
As for his defense, the first thing is that he is very much not a lazy player on defense. He does get lost and has slow reactions. Considering that he shows good effort, his reaction times seem reasonably likely to improve with time, coaching, and video work. On the other hand, he lacks explosiveness as a shot blocker, and that's unlikely to improve. He'll block some shots by being tall and being in the right position, but he is not a natural shot blocker. That seems less likely to change over time. 
 
Watching his video, he does seem to already have most of the pieces of a post game but not really know how to put them together. The big standout negative is that he squares to the basket too often and too deep. He has a pretty nice hook going both directions, so better court sense will allow him to make more use of that when working near the basket and cause him to square and get stuck less frequently. His video also makes it pretty clear he has NBA 3-point range and he has a really nice shooting stroke. He needs to get better at passing, and seeing the rest of the court on offense generally. 
 
An athletic 19 year old with size, effort, and tools but a lack of court vision is a pretty great NBA prospect. I'm not at all confident he'll be left at 6, but I will be very disappointed if he is and Ainge picks anyone else (with a possible exception for Saric). 
 

moly99

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 28, 2007
939
Seattle
BigSoxFan said:
Vonleh is more of a space eater than a rim protector. That was my point. He's obviously more adept at blocking shots than Fortson was. Basically, everyone is.
 
I think we need to clarify what we mean by rim protector. I think you need one big who can contest shots and stop guys from getting easy layups. He doesn't have to be near the NBA leaders in blocked shots. He just has to make it risky to drive to the hoop so the defense can get guys to take midrange shots instead of easy baskets. Vonleh should be able to fill that role nicely.
 
Omer Asik is a good example of this. His best block rate was in 2011 with 1.1 blocks per game, but he is still a solid defensive anchor.
 
EDIT: Just to clarify, because I know someone will take it that way, I am not comparing Vonleh to Asik defensively. I am just using Asik as an example of a good defensive big man who fills the rim protection role without racking up a lot of blocks.
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,105
I'm not in the minority to consider this draft very above average.  There are arguably ~7 guys in this draft who would've gone #1 last year in a very terrible draft.  #6 in this draft isn't #6 in an average draft, i'd consider closer to about #4 in an average draft.  So, yeah, if I'm Ainge I'm looking for somebody who has the potential to be a star, not just a rotation guy.
 
Also, looking at who was picked at #6 in every draft isn't necessarily as revealing as looking at who was available at #6 in every draft.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,814
moly99 said:
 
I think we need to clarify what we mean by rim protector. I think you need one big who can contest shots and stop guys from getting easy layups. He doesn't have to be near the NBA leaders in blocked shots. He just has to make it risky to drive to the hoop so the defense can get guys to take midrange shots instead of easy baskets. Vonleh should be able to fill that role nicely.
 
Omer Asik is a good example of this. His best block rate was in 2011 with 1.1 blocks per game, but he is still a solid defensive anchor.
 
EDIT: Just to clarify, because I know someone will take it that way, I am not comparing Vonleh to Asik defensively. I am just using Asik as an example of a good defensive big man who fills the rim protection role without racking up a lot of blocks.
 
Asik is a good example of a 7 foot center who is a a good defensive big man without racking up a lot of blocks.  
 
I'd be much more excited about Vonleh being a good defensive center, despite mediocre athleticism, if he was 7 feet tall. 
 

ZMart100

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2008
3,227
Noah Vonleh is a hard player to find similar prospects. Based purely on measurables, Solomon Jones (2006 USF) and Coleman Collins (2007 Virginia Tech) are the most similar, but neither of them had the freshman year that Vonleh had and they both played 4 seasons in college. Ignoring his weight, Brandan Wright and Tyrus Thomas are fairly close both in terms of their measurables and as college players. This is obviously not very encouraging. Maybe his weight will allow him to be a more effective defender/post player than either of those players.
 
Vonleh vs Wright and Thomas - Measurables
[tablegrid= Measurables ]Year Player Pos Height w/o Shoes Standing Reach Weight Wingspan Lane Agility ¾ Court Sprint Standing Vert Max Vert 2014 Noah Vonleh PF-C 80 108 247.1 88.25 11.45 3.28 31 37 2007 Brandan Wright PF-C 80.75 108.5 200 87.75 11.76 3.31 30.5 35.5 2006 Tyrus Thomas PF-C 79.25 108 217 87 11.36 3.2 34 39.5 [/tablegrid]
 
Vonleh vs Wright and Thomas - Stats
[tablegrid= Stats - Per 40 Pace Adjusted Where Applicable ]Year Player Min Pts Pts/Play TS% FT% Off Def TOT Asts Stls Blks TOs 2014 Noah Vonleh 26.5 16.5 0.99 0.61 71.6 3.5 9.6 13.1 0.9 1.3 2 3.1 2007 Brandan Wright 27.4 19.5 1.12 0.64 56.7 2.7 5.4 8.2 1.3 1.3 2.3 2.1 2006 Tyrus Thomas 25.9 18.3 1.06 0.63 65.7 4.2 9.5 13.7 1.9 1.5 4.6 2.7 [/tablegrid]
 
 

Blacken

Robespierre in a Cape
SoSH Member
Jul 24, 2007
12,152
radsoxfan said:
Wow, definitely disagree.  MKG is a smaller, less athletic Gordon who we know (or should be very concerned) will never learn to shoot. I know he is just 20, but his first 2 years in the league he hasn't improved at all.  Plus his shot looks much more broken than Gordon's.
Watch MKG's game this year, especially the last month or two. His motion looks significantly better than last year. Price reworked his entire shot motion this year; it takes time for that to stick. If he isn't putting up better percentages next year, I might be concerned.

I don't think MKG is a future star, but I think he'll be a good player and around for a while.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,814
Blacken said:
Watch MKG's game this year, especially the last month or two. His motion looks significantly better than last year. Price reworked his entire shot motion this year; it takes time for that to stick. If he isn't putting up better percentages next year, I might be concerned.

I don't think MKG is a future star, but I think he'll be a good player and around for a while.
 
I'll keep an eye on him, admittedly only saw him a couple times last season, and not late in the year.
 
At this point, I would still definitely take the potential of Gordon over the remaining career of MKG (and that's without considering contract and # of years of team control left) 
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
9,686
San Francisco
I think shooting is the most mutable skill there is when it comes to college prospects. The other attributes seem fairly predictable, and this makes sense. It is easier to just do a bajillion jump shots and get better at that one particular motion than it is to improve your court awareness or basketball IQ, or to teach yourself how to time blocking a shot. With this in mind, I would be OK taking someone like Gordon, with the idea that if he could develop a shot he would have a chance to be pretty damned good.
 

Blacken

Robespierre in a Cape
SoSH Member
Jul 24, 2007
12,152
slamminsammya said:
I think shooting is the most mutable skill there is when it comes to college prospects.
I would agree with this. You don't see many under-seven-foot players with an irreparable motion. Even "bad" shooters (Josh Smith, for example) generally have okay, if not perfect, mechanics--the problem becomes shot selection and forcing it against defense.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
EL Jeffe said:
1) Gordon can't shoot. This is a giant red flag and to expect he'll magically learn to shoot is a bad bet.
2) He can't really dribble either which means he won't be able to use his first step much to his advantage.
3) Despite this great reputation as being a shut down defender, Gordon couldn't defend against size last year. Just go back and watch the Wisconsin game and you'd see Kaminsky do whatever he wanted against him.

Guys like Gordon bust all the time. When you're a tweener who can't shoot and don't bring a single offensive skill to the court, your ceiling is severely limited. Someone is going to take Gordon high because he's young and runs & jumps well; I just hope it isn't the Celtics (unless they're making the pick for someone else as part of a trade.)
 
As much as I hate to say it, Syracuse seems to routinely produce tweeners who can't shoot but who are really good athletes.  And how many have been good pros?  Not many.
 

moly99

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 28, 2007
939
Seattle
ZMart100 said:
Ignoring his weight, Brandan Wright and Tyrus Thomas are fairly close both in terms of their measurables and as college players. This is obviously not very encouraging.
 
 
Tyrus Thomas has struggled in the NBA because of his poor shooting. Brandan Wright's career has been derailed by shoulder injuries, but he has played well when he's been on the floor. (He had a 23.60 PER this year.) Neither of those guys is an indictment of Vonleh.
 
Outside of the top 4 in any draft, you aren't looking at complete players. I think Vonleh makes the most sense for the Celtics if he is available, but I'm not going to be angry is they draft Gordon or one of the point guards. The one player I would be really pissed about drafting is Julius Randle.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,814
slamminsammya said:
I think shooting is the most mutable skill there is when it comes to college prospects. The other attributes seem fairly predictable, and this makes sense. It is easier to just do a bajillion jump shots and get better at that one particular motion than it is to improve your court awareness or basketball IQ, or to teach yourself how to time blocking a shot. With this in mind, I would be OK taking someone like Gordon, with the idea that if he could develop a shot he would have a chance to be pretty damned good.
 
Agree that shooting has a much better chance of improving than many of the other skills in basketball.  A below average athlete in college is rarely going to improve that very much, if at all.  
 
Having said that, there are definitely players who suck at shooting no matter how much they try to improve.  So I don't think it's simply a matter of effort (not that you were implying that).  Some guys have it, and some guys don't.  It's just very hard to predict which of the "bad shooters" in college at the age of 18 or 19 fit into that group.
 
Basically, at least someone's shooting could improve.  So drafting someone like Gordon and hoping he becomes a better shooter is much less far fetched than drafting Kyle Anderson and hoping he becomes a better athlete. 
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
moly99 said:
Outside of the top 4 in any draft, you aren't looking at complete players. I think Vonleh makes the most sense for the Celtics if he is available, but I'm not going to be angry is they draft Gordon or one of the point guards. The one player I would be really pissed about drafting is Julius Randle.
I basically agree with this. I don't much like Gordon, but I don't deny the potential is there, which is enough. Outside of the top 3 guys who I assume the Celtics have no shot at, my tiers go something like:
 
Tier 1:
Vonleh
Exum
 
Tier 2:
Gordon
Smart
Saric
 
Tier 3:
Randle
James Young
Gary Harris
 
Tier 4:
Everyone else.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,814
I am a big Gary Harris fan, though he measured shorter than expected at the combine (6'2.5" without shoes) which is a bit concerning.
 
If that somehow causes him to fall to #17 though, would love to grab him there. Unfortunately, even with his stock dropping a bit from the combine, that seems unlikely.  
 

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,912
So Kristaps Porzingis is pretty interesting.  A skilled, athletic 7-footer who can shoot, runs well and has great body control.  He's a beanpole, but he's one of the youngest players in the draft and he has the frame to add muscle.  He put up decent numbers in limited time in Liga ACB.  FWIW, apparently Ainge was at one of his games last month.  I'm surprised he's projected as late 1st/early second in most of the mocks I've seen.
 

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
6,839
The back of your computer
 
Machete (Coalpines)

 
Two words: Boston Celtics?

Chad Ford
  (1:37 PM)

 
Ainge went from hating the draft to loving it overnight LOL. If the Top 4 are all off the board (and by the way the Celtics are adamant that there isn't as much separation between the top 4 guys and the next 4 guys as we and others have suggested) then it's Aaron Gordon, Marcus Smart, Noah Vonleh and Julius Randle in some order. They also like Tyler Ennis and Gary Harris a lot too. Based on everything I've been able to gather all year, I'd say Gordon is probably the favorite though I know Smart has really grown on them and Ainge's son played against Vonleh in high school which gave Ainge a few extra scouting looks at him as well. But if I was going to pick one guy right now, I think it's Gordon.
 
 

Brickowski

Banned
Feb 15, 2011
3,755
So Kristaps Porzingis is pretty interesting.  A skilled, athletic 7-footer who can shoot, runs well and has great body control.  He's a beanpole, but he's one of the youngest players in the draft and he has the frame to add muscle.  He put up decent numbers in limited time in Liga ACB.  FWIW, apparently Ainge was at one of his games last month.  I'm surprised he's projected as late 1st/early second in most of the mocks I've seen.
Well I posted some video of him earlier in the thread. It's impressive that at age 18 he's been recently getting so many minutes from Aito Garcia Reneses, a very well respected coach who also had both Gasols on the Spanish national team. You may have to wait a year for Porzingis to come over.

I see that Ainge has invited another beanpole, DeAndre Daniels, in for a workout. Huge wingspan, decent shooter but a terrible passer. Daniels, like Russ Smith, may be worth shopping for a second round pick.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,973
My thoughts on Vonleh is that his ceiling is lower than a lot of people seem to think. Despite his length, he is a pretty poor defender. Yes, he will rack up some steals and blocks thanks to his wingspan, but his timing is poor, he commits too many bad fouls. For someone who supposedly has  a high motor, he is a poor help defender and doesn't challenge enough shots. For his position, he pretty much has to be a Power Forward. He is being listed as a PF/C, but he stands only 6'9" and he isn't a breathtaking athlete, so any taller center will have his way with him. Offensively, his best chance is to become a killer mid-range shooter. He has a nice touch around the rim, but his footwork is very sloppy, he struggles to make decisions and is a turnover machine. He has good mechanics and has shown to be a proficient shooter, albeit a reluctant ones. He is a very good rebounder, but if we are taking a big, I'd rather have Gordon or Randle. 
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,931
Going off of that Chad Ford chat, I think that the order is:
Gordon
Vonleh
Smart
Randle
Just don't think Randle fits on this team (bad wingspan, not great defense,think he's pretty similar to Sullinger actually.) And after watching him in college don't think he will be able to score off of long, active defenders (or pretty much what he will face in the NBA everyday). Also seems like he always goes left and tries to bulldoze whoever is in his path to score, a strategy a lot more effective in college than the pros
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,105
not sure how you can knock vonleh's size for center but pretend gordon is big enough to play the 4.  He needs to put on weight to bang with NBA PFs.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,931
Gordon is a tweener but I think he has the athleticism to be able to defend both positions competently (Matrix Jr.)
I also think Vonleh has a chance to grow even more, in which case he would absolutely be able to play the 5
 

Brickowski

Banned
Feb 15, 2011
3,755
No love for Dario Saric? How about drafting a fully formed player instead of an ath-e-lete who may or may not learn how to play the game?
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
35,106
Brickowski said:
No love for Dario Saric? How about drafting a fully formed player instead of an ath-e-lete who may or may not learn how to play the game?
He's skilled, but there is some question if he is an NBA caliber athlete. He lacks ideal size and jumping ability to continue playing PF when he gets to the NBA. However he also lacks the lateral footspeed and agility to be an ideal 3. He also was a very poor defender in an inferior league, against a lower level of athleticism which makes his ability to defend even to a standard of competency in the NBA unlikely.
 
The choice between Gordon and Saric is between a skilled offensive player who can't defend and lacks ideal physical tools, and a skilled defender with elite physical tools and extremely raw offensive skills.
 
Personally I prefer Gordon because you can teach to an extent shooting and post moves, he's already a decent passer (not near Saric's level) you can't teach leaping, wingspan and footspeed.
 
I wouldn't be all that upset if they took Saric, but he wouldn't be in my top 3 at that spot.
If he fell to 17 he's a no brainer, but he won't.
 

Brickowski

Banned
Feb 15, 2011
3,755
He's skilled, but there is some question if he is an NBA caliber athlete. He lacks ideal size and jumping ability to continue playing PF when he gets to the NBA. However he also lacks the lateral footspeed and agility to be an ideal 3. He also was a very poor defender in an inferior league, against a lower level of athleticism which makes his ability to defend even to a standard of competency in the NBA unlikely.
Saric wasn't a poor defender at all in the Adriatic league, which is either the second or third best professional league in the world (tossup for 2nd place with the Spanish ACB). It's far superior to U.S. college ball. He's 6-10 with a good standing reach and a wingspan that's just a little shorter than Gordon's.

He probably could not stay with quick sfs in the NBA (neither could Bird) but we're drafting the best players available, right?

On the plus side, Saric is the best passer in the draft (makes his teammates better), can handle the ball, shoot the three, shoot off the dribble and move without the ball. Very high BBIQ.

I would take him over either Gordon or Vonleh. Saric vs Smart is a tossup IMHO.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
35,106
Brickowski said:
Saric wasn't a poor defender at all in the Adriatic league, which is either the second or third best professional league in the world (tossup for 2nd place with the Spanish ACB). It's far superior to U.S. college ball. He's 6-10 with a good standing reach and a wingspan that's just a little shorter than Gordon's.

He probably could not stay with quick sfs in the NBA (neither could Bird) but we're drafting the best players available, right?

On the plus side, Saric is the best passer in the draft (makes his teammates better), can handle the ball, shoot the three, shoot off the dribble and move without the ball. Very high BBIQ.

I would take him over either Gordon or Vonleh. Saric vs Smart is a tossup IMHO.
Opponents shot 50% in the post against him, and every Euro-scout I've seen says he can't contain anyone with decent athleticism on dribble penetration. He got gamble steals and rotation blocks, but on the whole was a very poor defender.
 
Adriatic league is a good league, but you are overrating it. The level of athleticism is probably  below major conferences in college, and I wouldn't say it is necessarily better.
Some of the best ABA players are guys like Nolan Smith, Willie Warren (OK player drafted in the late 2nd washed out immediately) and Jonathon Jones (Oakland college).
The ABA is mostly Serbian and Croatian, but almost every team has 1 or 2 Americans, most are starters and key players, and most were mediocre college players. I mean even on Saric's own team the best in the league, Jerel Blassingame who was only a part time starter at UNLV is getting 33 minutes a night.
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,105
Not that mock drafts are the be all, end all, but a quick survey of mock drafts has Saric as 10, 10, 10, 12, 12, 13, 13, 16.
 
Since he's projected smack dab at the midpoint of our 2 picks at 6 & 17 I haven't really focused on him, except that if the mocks are right it would be great if he fell to us at 17 but would be a big-time reach at 6.  I am impressed by his stats and highlight video, so I'm modestly intrigued.  The scouts say he can't hit an NBA 3 (sort of a problem if he plays on the wing), can't defend 3s or 4s in the NBA, too small to play 4 (6'10 wing span - less than "alligator arm 4s" like Randle's or Olynyk's or Love's), not quick enough to guard 3s, not athletic or strong enough to finish at the rim in the NBA.
 
So, totally serious questions - why do you think all these guys have it wrong?  Do you think NBA GMs rate him similarly in the 10-13 range?  If not, why are all the mock drafts so out of step?  And, if everyone is underrating him, shouldn't you advocate for Ainge to trade down to 9 or 10 and maybe pickup an extra asset?
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,973
ALiveH said:
not sure how you can knock vonleh's size for center but pretend gordon is big enough to play the 4.  He needs to put on weight to bang with NBA PFs.
 
Because Vonleh is only 6'9" and not a great athlete, so any competent center will be able to physically overwhelm him. You can have a 6'9" center in the NBA (think Dwight Howard) but that guy has got to be a really super athlete in order to be a key player on a good team. In today's NBA, I'm totally for having a 6'8", hyper-athletic guy playing the 4 in most situations. 
 

Brickowski

Banned
Feb 15, 2011
3,755
Not that mock drafts are the be all, end all, but a quick survey of mock drafts has Saric as 10, 10, 10, 12, 12, 13, 13, 16.
  
So, totally serious questions - why do you think all these guys have it wrong?  Do you think NBA GMs rate him similarly in the 10-13 range?  If not, why are all the mock drafts so out of step?  And, if everyone is underrating him, shouldn't you advocate for Ainge to trade down to 9 or 10 and maybe pickup an extra asset?
Who knows? All players have warts, but based on what I've seen, Saric is better than Gordon or Vonleh, that's all. Alas, I don't get to see the private workouts, or do interviews, or watch film prepared by professional scouts. Ainge has access to much more information than any of us here, so I'll trust him to make the right pick more often than not. I have no idea whether he should trade down. It depends on what other teams are willing to do.

As for the mocks, they tend to be skewed until the last week before the draft and IMHO they are influenced by agents pimping for their clients.
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,105
You don't play basketball with the top of your head - it's far more important how far and high you can reach.  Vonleh's height and standing reach are 1.5" less than the average NBA Center but his wingspan is 1" more than the average Center so it's not crazy to think he could play the 5 based on that.
Gordon, measures 1-2" below NBA average for a 4 on both standing reach and wingspan (and slightly above average for a SF).  Wouldn't be a big issue, given his athleticism as you point out.  But, at 220 Gordon's almost 30 lighter than Vonleh and very light for a 4 (4th lightest of the bigs at the combine, most of the other light guys are longer than him).
http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.blogspot.com/2013/05/average-draft-measurements-for-nba.html
http://stats.nba.com/draftCombineAnthro.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=100&sortField=STANDING_REACH&sortOrder=DES
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,973
Yes Vonleh is long, but watching him play, he doesn't utilize his length very well. He can get some blocks and steals, but he is a bad help defender, commits too many fouls, isn't a natural leaper, etc. Just because you are long doesn't mean you have the ability to play the position. Gordon might not have the measurables of Vonleh, but for a PF, he has the explosiveness and the timing that allow him to make up for his lack of wingspan. Not to mention, fundamentally, Gordon is much better than Vonleh and is already a fantastic on-ball defender. I think Gordon as a 4 is a much better fit than Vonleh at the 5.