2013 Broncos: The Unholy Alliance

dbn

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The Welker usage is/will be interesting - at least to me - to watch.  
 
In the first two games, Denver has the spread passes around to primarily 3 WRs and 1 TE: D. Thomas (17), Decker (20), Welker(19), and TE J. Thomas (16) all have about the same number of targets, according to espn.com.  Running backs have 10 targets (and Manning is 10/10 on them).  
 
Offensive snap counts in week 1 and 2:
TE J. Thomas - 71/71, 74/74
WR D. Thomas - 68/71, 70/74
WR Decker - 64/71, 66/74
WR Welker - 56/71, 48/74
TE Green - 16/71, 26/74
 
The 2nd TE was on the field almost exactly the same number of plays that WW wasn't, so I suspect that they are substituting the 2nd TE for the "slot WR", i.e., Wes Welker, when they set up in a running formation.  (N.B., the 3rd TE, Tamme, also played 7 and 6 snaps in week 1 and 2, respectively.)
 
Just going on the numbers, it seems they are doing a good job of spreading the passes around to their top-4 weapons rather evenly, making them less predictable and thus harder to defend.
 

LogansDad

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Ummm, holy shit: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9707976/von-miller-denver-broncos-urine-collector-tried-cheat-test
 
 
Sources said the collector worked in Miami, where Miller spends offseason time, and the collector reveled in knowing the Broncos linebacker while being, according to a source, "star struck." It led, sources said, to the collector's willingness to substitute another person's urine specimen for Miller's. It might have worked, sources said, had a second collector not discovered that Miller was not in the city where his collection was supposed to have taken place.
 
How his suspension was only upped to 6 games is beyond me.
 

lithos2003

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CaptainLaddie

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Seriously how in blue fuck didn't he end up getting suspended for the season?  Say what you will about Justin Blackmon, but he never did this.
 
For fuck's sake: Miller made a concerted effort to cheat the system.
 

pdaj

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CaptainLaddie said:
Seriously how in blue fuck didn't he end up getting suspended for the season?  Say what you will about Justin Blackmon, but he never did this.
 
For fuck's sake: Miller made a concerted effort to cheat the system.
 
Yeah, after reading the update to this story, a mere 6-game suspension is pretty shocking. 
 

NatetheGreat

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Given that they're looking like the most dominant offense since the 2007 Patriots, I figured they deserve a thread.
 
At this point, what are the odds that, barring injury, Peyton breaks Brady's TD record?
What record do you think they'll finish with?
Does anyone have faith in Peyton's arm when the temperature drops and wind picks up, and can this team win if he's not on his game?
 

Leather

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I think he will break the record in week 15.
 
I think they will end up 15-1.
 
I'm fairly certain that they'll be bounced in the playoffs, or at least the Superbowl, because the offense will suffer when it gets a little colder (and that Giants Stadium SB could be really cold and nasty), and because their defense is kind of shitty.
 

bowiac

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drleather2001 said:
I'm fairly certain that they'll be bounced in the playoffs, or at least the Superbowl, because the offense will suffer when it gets a little colder (and that Giants Stadium SB could be really cold and nasty), and because their defense is kind of shitty.
It's such a common refrain that I'm sure this issue has been studied - does anyone know of such a study? Is this a real effect?
 

wutang112878

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While its a ways off, maybe we can start pondering our matchup with them as well.  I think we have learned our defense is legit, maybe its not elite but its becoming very good.  We have also learned our offense is much different than in years past and probably wont be elite even when we have Gronk and Amendola. 
 
Can we realistically hold them to 3 TDs and maybe a FG?  I am sure Bill will take D. Thomas and then either Welker, Decker or J. Thomas out of the game, but in a 3 WR set that still leaves 2 pretty skilled guys in 1 on 1 coverage.  We would need a few turnovers and some punts, so I think holding them to 24 is going to be a challenge. 
 
Then, can we really score 24 on them?  Their defense isnt great but decent defenses seem to give us fits at the moment when we are stopping ourselves with drops and bad routes.
 
I think this turns into a 27-24 type of game and this is certainly one of our most intriguing games on the schedule.
 

NatetheGreat

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drleather2001 said:
I think he will break the record in week 15.
 
I think they will end up 15-1.
 
I'm fairly certain that they'll be bounced in the playoffs, or at least the Superbowl, because the offense will suffer when it gets a little colder (and that Giants Stadium SB could be really cold and nasty), and because their defense is kind of shitty.
 
I'm curious if Von Miller and/or Champ Bailey will kick their defense up a notch, because if not I think they're vulnerable, despite how incredible the offense looks right now.
 

NortheasternPJ

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NatetheGreat said:
 
I'm curious if Von Miller and/or Champ Bailey will kick their defense up a notch, because if not I think they're vulnerable, despite how incredible the offense looks right now.
 
Dallas hanging 49 points on them tipped you off that they're vulnerable?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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bowiac said:
It's such a common refrain that I'm sure this issue has been studied - does anyone know of such a study? Is this a real effect?
 
It's a real effect that Manning's passer rating drops off significantly the later he goes into the postseason.
 
WC Round (7 games): 102.0
Divisional (8 games): 84.2
Conf. Champ. (3 games): 76.7
Super Bowl (2 games): 85.4
 
Regular season (229 games): 96.7
 
Weren't there reports that he was suffering from dead arm or something in that playoff game against the Ravens last year too?
 

bowiac

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
 
It's a real effect that Manning's passer rating drops off significantly the later he goes into the postseason.
 
WC Round (7 games): 102.0
Divisional (8 games): 84.2
Conf. Champ. (3 games): 76.7
Super Bowl (2 games): 85.4
 
Regular season (229 games): 96.7
 
Weren't there reports that he was suffering from dead arm or something in that playoff game against the Ravens last year too?
Presumably there's a "defenses are better" effect there however.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Well, don't look now but Peyton needs to average 3 TDs a game to break Brady's record (36 TDs, 5 games left) and as expected he has not been able to keep up the pace he established once the weather has gotten colder.  It is still within reach but not a sure thing by any stretch.  He probably needs to have one 5 TD game (or something like that) otherwise I bet he ends up with 48 or 49.
 
Remaining schedule is @ Chiefs, v. Titans, v. Chargers, @ Texans, @ Raiders.  They catch a huge break if Hali and Houston are both out this week, though.  Still, dial up some cold weather in KC and a crazy crowd and you never know.
 
Not sure why I care about this but I do so whatever.
 

soxfan121

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soxfan121 said:
And one I do not worry about in the bad weather games that either Denver (with home field advantage) or another top AFC team (none are dome teams, none in warm weather cities except Houston, which is both) will have to host in January. Peyton is wearing gloves in 100 degree heat in August and September for a reason. When it gets really cold, he's not the same guy and there's no reasonable medical reason to think he will ever get over the numbness brought on by nerve damage and cold. It's quite literally an Achilles heel just waiting to be exacerbated by conditions/time. 
 
Ahem.
 

JimBoSox9

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Tip 'o the hat to Knowshon Moreno, Feature Back.  37 carries and left the stadium on crutches.  He'd be the Story if Brady hadn't knocked him below the fold.  Sorry , on, it's happened to better men than you.
 
Edit: Soxfan, you're not going to shake me down for $10 now, are you?
 

lostjumper

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Ralphwiggum said:
Well, don't look now but Peyton needs to average 3 TDs a game to break Brady's record (36 TDs, 5 games left) and as expected he has not been able to keep up the pace he established once the weather has gotten colder.  It is still within reach but not a sure thing by any stretch.  He probably needs to have one 5 TD game (or something like that) otherwise I bet he ends up with 48 or 49.
 
Remaining schedule is @ Chiefs, v. Titans, v. Chargers, @ Texans, @ Raiders.  They catch a huge break if Hali and Houston are both out this week, though.  Still, dial up some cold weather in KC and a crazy crowd and you never know.
 
Not sure why I care about this but I do so whatever.
 
That game should be great next week. Losing Hali for the Chiefs is huge, but Denver seemed to lose several guys as the game went on, and Moreno left on crutches. They are pretty banged up right now, we'll have to wait for the practice report on Wednesday to see just how banged up Denver is.
 

Leather

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Weather for KC on Sunday calls for about 45 degrees and damp.
 

soxfan121

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JimBoSox9 said:
Tip 'o the hat to Knowshon Moreno, Feature Back.  37 carries and left the stadium on crutches.  He'd be the Story if Brady hadn't knocked him below the fold.  Sorry , on, it's happened to better men than you.
 
Edit: Soxfan, you're not going to shake me down for $10 now, are you?
 
Not until it happens in January. This was a free demonstration.
 

RedOctober3829

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The chances of wide receiver Wes Welker missing a second straight game for the Broncos because of a concussion appear to be good after Welker missed another practice on Wednesday.
Welker has not been cleared to return to work after suffering a concussion against the Titans in Week 14 and would still need to pass a series of tests between now and Sunday before he’d be given the green light to play against the Texans.
 
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/18/wes-welker-remains-out-at-broncos-practice/
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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He's been ruled out for Sunday's game.
 
I wonder if the Broncos are going to have to make a hard decision on Welker after the season. He counts for $4 million against the cap this season, $8 million next year. His concussion symptoms still haven't subsided from this last one. He's probably going to miss the remaining games of the regular season. They've gotten good production out of him this year considering a $4 million cap hit. For $8 million? That's a tougher decision.
 

Morning Woodhead

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
He's been ruled out for Sunday's game.
 
I wonder if the Broncos are going to have to make a hard decision on Welker after the season. He counts for $4 million against the cap this season, $8 million next year. His concussion symptoms still haven't subsided from this last one. He's probably going to miss the remaining games of the regular season. They've gotten good production out of him this year considering a $4 million cap hit. For $8 million? That's a tougher decision.
 
The breakdowns are interesting between Welker, Amendola and Edelman. 
 
Welker -      73 receptions - 778 yards - 10.7 per - 8 TD's
Edelman -   89 receptions - 914 yards - 10.3 per - 6 TD's
Amendola - 51 receptions - 579 yards - 11.4 per - 2 TD's
 
2 strong games and Amendola has a good chance at matching Welkers stats for the year (minus the TD's).  It's clear Edelman has been the real Welker replacement, but its nice to see Amedola closing strong, and hopefully will end up with comparable stats, and more importantly, be healthy for the playoffs. 
 

ivanvamp

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
He's been ruled out for Sunday's game.
 
I wonder if the Broncos are going to have to make a hard decision on Welker after the season. He counts for $4 million against the cap this season, $8 million next year. His concussion symptoms still haven't subsided from this last one. He's probably going to miss the remaining games of the regular season. They've gotten good production out of him this year considering a $4 million cap hit. For $8 million? That's a tougher decision.
 
It may depend on how Denver's offense does without him.  If they roll along just fine, they'll probably consider him expendable.  If they struggle, they may point to Welker's absence as a key reason why.  
 
10 TDs this year is great, but just 73 rec for 778 yards.  I know they have a lot of weapons, but those are his worst numbers since 2006.  Again, the TD number is really good though, so maybe it makes up for it.
 

Reverend

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
He's been ruled out for Sunday's game.
 
I wonder if the Broncos are going to have to make a hard decision on Welker after the season. He counts for $4 million against the cap this season, $8 million next year. His concussion symptoms still haven't subsided from this last one. He's probably going to miss the remaining games of the regular season. They've gotten good production out of him this year considering a $4 million cap hit. For $8 million? That's a tougher decision.
 
I wonder what the specific language is on Welker's deal with the devil. He was this close to being one of the great stories ever in the NFL, going from undrafted free agent to deity in one of the most sports rabid places in the country... arguably twice.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Reverend said:
 
I wonder what the specific language is on Welker's deal with the devil. He was this close to being one of the great stories ever in the NFL, going from undrafted free agent to deity in one of the most sports rabid places in the country... arguably twice.
 
Someone posted this on the BSMW board last night. It's Kraft's statement after Welker signed with Denver:
 
 
In fact, he has a one-year deal in Denver for $6 million. Our last offer, before we would have even gone up and before we thought we were going into free agency, was a $10 million offer with incentives that would have earned him another $6 million if he performed the way he had the previous two years. But in Denver, he’s going to count $4 million against the cap this coming year and $8 million the second year. There is no guarantee that he plays the second year there. He will get $6 million the first year. Our deal, he would have gotten $8 million the first year – our last offer to him. 
 
 
Interesting. Possibly self-serving, of course, but if accurate then it's very possible Welker makes less money with Denver than he would have in New England...if the Broncos cut him before next year.
 
Bad time to suffer a concussion.
 

Leather

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I wish no ill upon Welker, but I hope he fires his agent if he gets cut. 
 

NatetheGreat

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I really hope Welker stops playing soon, because Its gotten to the point where I cringe every time he gets the ball because I feel like another concussion could leave this guy a vegetable in 10 years.
 

Ed Hillel

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You could see this one coming, with the way Manning was leading him right into defenders the entire half. Manning must have caught him ordering from Dominos.

Anyway, I think it's safe to say that Welker is injury prone at this point. I think that's how it works, at least.
 

mpx42

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$8 million cap hit next year, concussion history, Denver deciding to give Decker big money instead...could be a cut, no question.
 

Prodigal Sox

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Ed Hillel said:
You could see this one coming, with the way Manning was leading him right into defenders the entire half. Manning must have caught him ordering from Dominos.

Anyway, I think it's safe to say that Welker is injury prone at this point. I think that's how it works, at least.
For someone with such an accurate arm, this is the second time that a Manning slot reciever has had these problems.  Austin Collie had the same issue in Indy.  Welker took a lot of big shots over the years with New England and I wouldn't be suprised if he suffered some concussions will playing there that went undetected, but Brady's recievers haven't really had concussion issues.
 

Stitch01

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mpx42 said:
$8 million cap hit next year, concussion history, Denver deciding to give Decker big money instead...could be a cut, no question.
Pats probably looking for lower cost Edelman replacement next year, could be a fit given he knows the system.
 

ivanvamp

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drleather2001 said:
I wish no ill upon Welker, but I hope he fires his agent if he gets cut. 
 
His agent should fire Welker.  Welker made the call to spurn New England and take less guaranteed money to play in Denver.  That lessened the agent's earnings as a result, no?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Prodigal Sox said:
 
True, but that really didn't happen on the throw.
That was an end around iIrc, not that I think Brady is better or worse than the average QB at avoiding WR concussions.
 

DJnVa

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Haven't we heard that Brady likes to throw low? Obviously you can find high throws, or throws that hung his guy out to dry, but I remember reading (I think on here somewhere) that Brady makes a point of throwing low.
 

mpx42

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DrewDawg said:
Haven't we heard that Brady likes to throw low? Obviously you can find high throws, or throws that hung his guy out to dry, but I remember reading (I think on here somewhere) that Brady makes a point of throwing low.
 
He makes a point of throwing low more then any quarterback I've ever seen. Sometimes it backfires but overall it cuts down on interceptions, I think, too.
 

NortheasternPJ

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Funny we haven't heard the Amendola is injury prone and Welker is a tough guy narrative in a few weeks.