Revised contract predictions for Snell and Montgomery

6-5 Sadler said:

And of course the downside risk was always catastrophic injury. I would also characterize any sub-meh performance as downside risk but I think we quickly get into a semantics exercise. For instance, Fangraphs had Giolito’s 20th percentile projection at 1.1 WAR which I would classify as sub-meh given his contract but others could differ on that opinion.

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Well, this wasn't a two year deal with an opt out. It was a one year deal with an opt in, which might trigger a third year. To let's do it more concretely in simplified form:


In other words, if they bet on him being fixable, they're really looking at a one year deal, which they were fine with. If he's injured and the prognosis is good, they can essentially pick things up on the back end.

These are other possible outcomes, but the worst case scenario is an immediate injury, mirage recovery, and a re-injury in early 2026, which'd be 18/18/14 for nothing. Still on the table. Best case is likely a great year this year, which is probably off the table. Second best would have been the Sox get something out of him this year, but he's injured early-ish and so decides to trigger his option. He then returns in the second half of 2025 (playoff run in a year we're more likely to contend in), and the Sox pick up his option for 2026 when he's again good (again in a year we're more likely to contend in.) We still maybe have that upside scenario.

SouthernBoSox said:

As Alex Speier mentioned in this last piece. The Bello contract extension structure strongly suggest they won't be adding a big ticket FA this off season. They decided to absorb the higher AAV this year in exchange for keeping it lower in subsequent years.

I think they will add an arm, but it's not going to be Montgomery.

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1766988676528001166?s=46

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Yeah, I get that, and we talked about it in the other thread. But again, the idea that shifting AAV into 2024 (via extension/s and signing an injured closer to a two-year deal) precludes an FA signing is *if* the CBT threshold is the budget/parameter/whatever mixed messages they're sending today. At the beginning of the offseason, it was widely assumed that they would be going over that number by most of us here — i.e., people who have watched this team very carefully for a long time. So either something changed (which is definitely possible! maybe high Red Sox payrolls are a low interest rate phenomenon...) or else the way they talk about it changed.

No matter what, I think it's fair to say that (MassLive notwithstanding) we don't actually know what the budget really is, and if anything, it seems like the team has done its utmost to create confusion around this issue, either out of messaging incompetence (seems unlikely) or for some other obscure reason. And to be clear, I don't mean that I know better than anyone else. I think we DO NOT KNOW what the limit is, or how that limit adjusts to various scenarios, and reporting that agents around the game think the Red Sox "are acting like a small-market team" is not remotely dispositive. They did make a $300m offer (or "were prepared to," at least, per reporting) this offseason. Not exactly small-market behavior.

Sausage in Section 17 said:

This is where we will have to disagree. The list of highest contracts ever given out to pitchers is littered with albatrosses. There are probably more horrible contracts on this list than players who lived up to them. And of the top 3 on the list, none will be able to start the season. Only 2 out of the top 8 were available for the playoffs last year. And I'm not sure Jordan Montgomery has ever had a season on par with the best of these other players. Just because he may be among the top 30 pitchers currently doesn't mean he is going to be worth ace money. Very few of the the top 30 pitchers ever really are.

Starting pitchers
The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value:
1. Shohei Ohtani, $46,081,476 (2024-33) (reduced for deferrals)
2. Max Scherzer, $43,333,333 (2022-24)
… Justin Verlander, $43,333,333 (2023-24)
4. Zack Wheeler, $42,000,000 (2025-27)
5. Jacob deGrom, $37,000,000 (2023-27)
6. Gerrit Cole, $36,000,000 (2020-28)
7. Stephen Strasburg, $35,000,000 (2020-26)
8. Trevor Bauer, $34,000,000 (2021-23)
9. Justin Verlander, $33,000,000 (2020-21)
10. Zack Greinke, $32,500,000 (2016-21) (reduced for deferrals)
11. David Price, $31,000,000 (2016-22)
… Clayton Kershaw, $31,000,000 (2019-21)
13. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20)
14. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21)
15. Shohei Ohtani, $30,000,000 (2023)
16. Jacob deGrom, $27,500,000 (2019-23)
17. Tyler Glasnow, $27,312,500 (2024-28)
18. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, $27,083,333 (2024-35)
19. Carlos Rodón, $27,000,000 (2023-28)
20. Jon Lester, $25,833,333 (2015-20)
21. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)
22. Chris Sale, $25,600,000 (2020-24)
23. Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19)
… Stephen Strasburg, $25,000,000 (2017-23)
… Jake Arrieta, $25,000,000 (2018-20)
… Justin Verlander, $25,000,000 (2022-23)
… Sonny Gray, $25,000,000 (2024-26)
28. Aaron Nola, $24,571,429 (2024-30)
29. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 (2013-18)
30. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16)

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Yep, there be some bad contracts right there. There's no way Montgomery should make as much as any of the guys on the list.

Benj4ever said:

Yep, there be some bad contracts right there. There's no way Montgomery should make as much as any of the guys on the list.

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I don’t even think it’s a valid comparison: you have to get down to at least the 20-25 spots on the list before you’re running into the contract range Monty is likely to sign for (using 5 yrs x $25M per). All of these deals are pretty old, so if you demand that the players somehow be paid by some objective ranking of how their performance worked out in the end, you’re then throwing out effects of both inflation and supply & demand (which ownership would love).

Interesting Sox-centric comparisons would be looking at Monty against Lester and his relative performance in comparison (how similar are they) and also against Sale, looking at the value of having an “Ace!” vs the question of availability (Monty being a well above average SP who takes the ball more).

OCD SS said:

I don’t even think it’s a valid comparison: you have to get down to at least the 20-25 spots on the list before you’re running into the contract range Monty is likely to sign for (using 5 yrs x $25M per). All of these deals are pretty old, so if you demand that the players somehow be paid by some objective ranking of how their performance worked out in the end, you’re then throwing out effects of both inflation and supply & demand (which ownership would love).

Interesting Sox-centric comparisons would be looking at Monty against Lester and his relative performance in comparison (how similar are they) and also against Sale, looking at the value of having an “Ace!” vs the question of availability (Monty being a well above average SP who takes the ball more).

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Lester seems like an excellent comp to me too. Very similar K rates/BB rates/HR rates/ERA+/FIP etc. not to mention the physical similarities.

Benj4ever said:

Yep, there be some bad contracts right there. There's no way Montgomery should make as much as any of the guys on the list.

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Any good ones?

Green Monster said:

Any good ones?

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There are some very good ones and a whole pile of TBD ones. The list really needs some parsing.

Eh. At Montgomery’s age, Lester had already thrown 1600 innings at a 120 era+, won 116 games with 7 straight years of 190 + innings. JM has 755 innings, 38 wins, and a 116 era+. JM’s entire career has been worth 12.5 bWAR, Lester was over 30 at the same age. I guess you need to account for changes in the game, but I think Lester was a much more valuable pitcher than JM.

Right, but it's not so much about their body of work as Montgomery's current profile and projections. His MLB career obviously got off to a much slower start.

Cassvt2023 said:

It’s now March 11. This season starts earlier than most in the past, in less than 10 days. Montgomery hasn’t received anything close to what he was seeking or he would’ve signed by now. E-Rod’s 4/80m was a much better template to go on rather than Rodon’s or Nola’s deals… Boras fucked up and totally misread the market and now he’s scrambling to save face. He’s likely looking for the best pillow deal similar to what Bellinger got and not even finding that. You reap what you sow Scotty B.

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I mean at this point it makes sense to wait to opening day to clear out the compensation. I do love your firm antiplayer stance. Screw labor, yea billionaires!

TomRicardo said:

I mean at this point it makes sense to wait to opening day to clear out the compensation. I do love your firm antiplayer stance. Screw labor, yea billionaires!

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I think it's quite possible to be pro-player but anti-Boras, especially if you think Scott is mostly about Scott.

HfxBob said:

I think it's quite possible to be pro-player but anti-Boras, especially if you think Scott is mostly about Scott.

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To believe this, one has to believe he's duped his clients.

Cassvt2023 said:

Thank you. This is my stance as well. I love when these guys try to make you out to be something that you're absolutely not and twist your words all around to fit their narrative.

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So you think Montgomery is a child with no agency of his own?

OCD SS said:

I don’t even think it’s a valid comparison: you have to get down to at least the 20-25 spots on the list before you’re running into the contract range Monty is likely to sign for (using 5 yrs x $25M per). All of these deals are pretty old, so if you demand that the players somehow be paid by some objective ranking of how their performance worked out in the end, you’re then throwing out effects of both inflation and supply & demand (which ownership would love).

Interesting Sox-centric comparisons would be looking at Monty against Lester and his relative performance in comparison (how similar are they) and also against Sale, looking at the value of having an “Ace!” vs the question of availability (Monty being a well above average SP who takes the ball more).

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Yeah, I realize there are old numbers in there. I was beating my "The Sox should have signed Sonny Gray" dead horse. If Sonny is worth $25M/year, Montgomery is worth less.

TomRicardo said:

I mean at this point it makes sense to wait to opening day to clear out the compensation. I do love your firm antiplayer stance. Screw labor, yea billionaires!

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Isn't the cutoff for dropping the QO the MLB draft?

"Players who are unsigned after the start of the MLB Draft in the year that follows the rejection of their qualifying offer are no longer tied to Draft pick compensation and can be signed without their new club needing to forfeit a Draft pick."

I can't imagine Snell would wait until July to sign.

Cassvt2023 said:

Did I say anything close to this?? Jesus.

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Yes, yes you did. Either you are cheering against the players or you are saying they don't have their own agency to tell their agent it isn't just about him. There isn't a logical middle ground.

Yo La Tengo said:

Isn't the cutoff for dropping the QO the MLB draft?

"Players who are unsigned after the start of the MLB Draft in the year that follows the rejection of their qualifying offer are no longer tied to Draft pick compensation and can be signed without their new club needing to forfeit a Draft pick."

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That's for Snell, yes.

For Montgomery to sign a contract with an opt out after year 1, though, if he waits until after Opening Day then opts out, tge team wouldn't be able to QO him, since he wouldn't be on the roster for the full season.

This is not me saying that I think it is definitely what is going on here, but it's a thought I have had.

jon abbey said:

Yes, so Opening Day doesn't affect Snell, but it does affect Montgomery in that if he signs after Opening Day, his team can't offer him a QO if he opts out of the new deal quickly because he wouldn't have been on that team the entire season.

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Gotcha- thanks for that clarification. Can a team contractually agree not to place a QO on a player?

jon abbey said:

Yes, so Opening Day doesn't affect Snell, but it does affect Montgomery in that if he signs after Opening Day, his team can't offer him a QO if he opts out of the new deal quickly because he wouldn't have been on that team the entire season.

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Does the Dodgers/Padres game in South Korea on March 20 (a week from tomorrow) count as opening day for just those teams, or all of MLB?

Either way, with every day that goes by it makes less and less sense for Montgomery to not wait until he can skip the QO.

I find idea of Montgomery signing a 1 year opt out after opening day to avoid a QO again silly. It doesn't make sense for anyone.

He's coming off a career year, but he wants a mulligan to hit the market again in exactly the same position, but a year older, with more FA competition, and hoping to repeat his performance? Why?

And it doesn't make sense for the signing team either. How much does a team want to pay for less than a year of a pitcher (he probably isn't ramped up until May, right?) who's certain to leave in the absence of catastrophic injury? I'd say a non-contender might be interested purely to flip him at the deadline, but he's also going to require that juicy backend past the option as insurance, so getting a smaller market team to take on that risk doesn't seem realistic either.

SirPsychoSquints said:

To believe this, one has to believe he's duped his clients.

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I don't think duped is the right word, because everyone knows his deal by now. And usually there's no conflict of interest between him feeding his ego and the player getting the max contract.

HfxBob said:

I don't think duped is the right word, because everyone knows his deal by now. And usually there's no conflict of interest between him feeding his ego and the player getting the max contract.

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If there’s no conflict of interest, then he’s doing his job on behalf of the players. And I don’t understand your criticism of him.

SirPsychoSquints said:

If there’s no conflict of interest, then he’s doing his job on behalf of the players. And I don’t understand your criticism of him.

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I said usually. And all I mean is that it's possible to be pro-player and anti-Boras, if you don't like his tactics, his attention-seeking etc.

EvilEmpire said:

If a big contract isn't out there for him now, how much harder will it be for him next year with a qualifying offer attached?

I think Monty will be able to find a short deal with an early opt-out from a team with playoff aspirations even after the season starts.

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If a big contract isn't out there for him now, why would he expect to find one, still without a QO, but in a worse situation a year later? And how much is starting late and being clear of the QO going to cost him for this year? It's not like teams are oblivious to losing that value; their offers will adjust to account for it.

I don't see it. I think he makes a medium/long term deal at medium/high dollars.

simplicio said:

If a big contract isn't out there for him now, why would he expect to find one, still without a QO, but in a worse situation a year later? And how much is starting late and being clear of the QO going to cost him for this year? It's not like teams are oblivious to losing that value; their offers will adjust to account for it.

I don't see it. I think he makes a medium/long term deal at medium/high dollars.

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If he can get a medium/long term deal, sure. But it's March 12. A three year deal with an opt out might be the best he can do.

CR67dream said:

I would consider a 3 year deal with an opt out to be a medium length deal these days.

Until he's signed, my fever dream is that the Sox get him for something like 4/90 with an opt out after year 2. Boras saves a little face by getting a 25ish mil 5th year triggered by 175-180 IP, and hell, they could even tack on a 6th year team option at 30ish mil giving it a possible value of 145 mil if the 5th year trigger is hit.

I think the 4/90 makes total sense even if he falls down the depth chart three years in, and if he has a couple of good years and opts out, that's fine, the Sox overall pitching situation should be in a much better place in two years than it is today, and if it isn't, Jordan Montgomery's contract status will be the least of their problems.

To be clear, I am not predicting or expecting it to happen, but I do expect that wherever he signs, there will be some creativity with contract structure. That's starting to seem like the general trend, anyway.

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This range seems likely to allow the Sox to stay under the CBT threshold, too.

If Montgomery can opt out in the short term without the Sox getting a draft pick, then post-Giolitto the Sox should pass. Signing him is about stabilizing the rotation for a few years, not a 1 year shot in the arm (especially now).

TomRicardo said:

I mean at this point it makes sense to wait to opening day to clear out the compensation. I do love your firm antiplayer stance. Screw labor, yea billionaires!

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Does the QO penalty expire at the start of the season? I thought I saw chatter elsewhere that it expired sometime later. So, Snell would have to wait well into the season, then sign to allow the gaining team to avoid QO penalty. Someone clarify this for me.

OCD SS said:

If Montgomery can opt out in the short term without the Sox getting a draft pick, then post-Giolitto the Sox should pass. Signing him is about stabilizing the rotation for a few years, not a 1 year shot in the arm (especially now).

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I think a shot in the arm is just what the Sox need. I posted this in another thread but the Sox are really close to competing this year:

The AL East is wide open.

NYY- lots of news about Cole and Judge. Rodon looked good yesterday but he's made it to 140 innings 2 times in the last 9 years. Stroman is turning 33 and hasn't made it to 140 innings the last two years. Vulnerable to injury with some interesting young pitchers, if everything breaks right and Cole manages to come back healthy, the rotation could be great. The line-up looks heavily dependent on Stanton, Rizzo, and LeMahieu all staying healthy and improving their recent performances (Rizzo does look good this spring and Soto is going to be a force). Is missing 50+ games a year the baseline for Judge? Tons of variability in projected wins.
BAL- two injured starters and a ton of hype about their young players and Burns but not enough is being said about losing Bautista, who had one of the greatest pitching seasons in recent history last year. Replacing him with Kimbrel is a huge question mark and that bullpen cannot meet last year's outstanding performance. Are all these young players going to immediately produce? Tons of variability in projected wins.
TOR- adding Turner (and maybe Votto) could help stem the chronic underperformance of that young core, but I wouldn't feel good betting on it. Gausman has a sore shoulder, so does Manoah. Tons of variability in projected wins.
TB- a glut of injured pitchers and the loss of their best player. They will find a way to compete but this looks like a down year. Tons of variability in projected wins.

BOS- if they added one or two starting pitchers, they'd be right in the hunt. Bullpen should be a strength, line-up looks solid, defense looks greatly improved, especially if Rafaela is the starting CF. The luxury tax was reset and signing Montgomery and/or Lorenzen would only cost money. Offer Montgomery a big one year deal and Lorenzen a modest two year deal. Then go compete for the top spot in the AL East.

jon abbey said:

Snell has a QO currently, so yes it doesn't expire until after the July draft.

Montgomery does not have a QO currently, but if he signs with a team now and opts out after the season, his 2024 team can give him a QO, which would hurt his market next winter. If he waits to sign until after Opening Day, his 2024 team cannot offer him a QO because you can only offer one to a player that has been on your team all season. This is what's being discussed here currently.

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Thanks Jon, that is what I meant.

TomRicardo said:

Thanks Jon, that is what I meant.

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Ok, thanks for the clarification

I've been dismissive of the idea of Montgomery getting a one year opt out while signing after opening day, but I was thinking about it more and wondering if it actually lines up with the Sox in a way.

If the team is effectively cash poor in the short term for whatever reason, what if they sign Monty the day after opening day to something like 4/90 with the year one opt out, but backweighted to look like 15/25/25/25? The actual cash paid this year seems to matter much more to ownership than the AAV (judging by how Bello's deal is structured), and that would still leave them a bit under the CBT line (not much, and I'm assuming they're still trying to drop Kenley). For Montgomery, he gets a sizable guarantee with an option to hit the market again unencumbered if he's feeling frisky. There's a world where that could work for both parties, though I'm still skeptical.

https://x.com/tylermilliken_/status/1772320800252600433?s=42&t=pZDuHXmy8uDLxIjoeuKsrA

Wasn't really sure where to put this--really hope the Monty saga can end this week, regardless of where he goes

That’s really the only thing that made sense. We’re the high bidders, but he’d prefer something else. I still think he signs here.

Has there been any confirmations of what any teams offered JM like with Snell? I suspect JM will be losing tens of millions long term because of his holdout.
I don’t get wanting a one year deal, especially without a QO- any team could just run him out and destroy him with no hesitation if he’s going to be somewhere else. I’d guess he’s looking for at least a 2 year then no? And in which case… that’s actually perfect again.

No, nobody's said what actual bids have been offered.
Latest from Sherman is that his ask has moved from Nola territory to Glasnow, but that the Yankees see him as a 3.

I still can't understand how Montgomery got to the spot where he's so concerned about a potential qualifying offer that he'd hold off on signing until after opening day. I have to believe he has, or had, offers in at least the 5yr/110 mil range. If he has a season that gets him a better offer next year the QO will be a non factor. But if he's worried that the QO will suppress his market, that concern is a manifestation of the liklihood that he won't have a top end season on the pillow contract, in which case he should take the best offer he can get now. An attached QO suppresses the market for a mid rotation starter, not a top end one.

It's also my belief that his chances of having a better season in 2024 than 2023 were already low and that missing a real spring training and starting a month or so later will only reduce those chances.

I thought that at the beginning of the offseason, but I think it’s also possible that he’s thinking after all the extra innings and effort of a WS run, throttling down with extra rest and a slow ramp up may allow him to throw better for the bulk of the season, and maybe audition for teams who were worried about their TV deals.

simplicio said:

No, nobody's said what actual bids have been offered.
Latest from Sherman is that his ask has moved from Nola territory to Glasnow, but that the Yankees see him as a 3.

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Glasnow territory being 5/136.5.

Maybe Monty is still just asking too much and it's as simple as that. He knows this is his one big shot at the money and he's going to max it out.

HfxBob said:

Glasnow territory being 5/136.5.

Maybe Monty is still just asking too much and it's as simple as that. He knows this is his one big shot at the money and he's going to max it out.

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He might have gotten those kinds of offers back in November and turned them down, now he's looking for them in March and finding they've all dried up.