I would guess that it will be similarly structured to Snell where its a short multi-year contract with an opt out each year
A one year could be a disaster though. Especially without a QO attached it encourages whoever he signs with to run him into the ground. A two year at least ensures the team will try to keep him in good health.... but then that puts him 2 years older and lucky at that point, even if he pitches well, to get another 2 year offer. Boras really screwed this up if anyone was offering a 4 or 5 year at $100M. He'll be lucky to get a $40M the next two seasons and likely less than that for the possible second two year.
I just wonder if it makes any sense for any team to give a 4 year guaranteed contract with a 1 year opt out. Seems incredibly risky for the team.
I don't wish Montgomery to be screwed out of playing or making what he's worth in this market but it really seems like it's some kinda karma for Boras and free agent pitchers. It's been pretty well established by now that the amount of teams that get the "value" out of the older FA pitcher on some max contracts are few and far between (fair or not is another discussion with regards to getting way more value out of them during their controlled years). There's only so many "fool me once..." type of deals before things fall apart and unfortunately it ends up hitting a guy like Montgomery.
They could take a page out of Garret Cole's deal and put an option for the team to void it with an extra year tacked on at the end. Obviously the numbers would be very different. In any case, I expect some creativity in whatever deal he finally signs.
Glasnow’s contract extension is more like 4/$111M than 5/$136.5. He was already guaranteed $25 million this year.
I don't think a team will abuse him or that he will let himself be abused.
Correct, but Sherman was using the 5/136.5 as an estimate of Montgomery's current ask.
You think that applies to a guy who probably wants to get back on the market in a year and maximize his value? I don't.
Thanks for the assist.
I think it's ridiculous to think such a thing will happen. He's a starting pitcher, not a reliever. He's going to pitch every five days and be around 100 pitches if he goes deep enough into the game. If he gets asked to pitch on 3 or 4 days rest it will be in the playoffs and won't happen enough to be abusive.
I actually Googled Shohei OhtaniI may or may not have googled "Jordan Montgomery" during the down time.
I agree that no team would take such tactics as those suggested in this day and age. But I do believe JM may be screwed in that he probably cost himself between $75-100 million dollars in total outlay very similar to Snell, by completely overreaching and rejecting an earlier offer.
It's kind of easy to say now that they over-reached. Seeing Yamamoto get $100 million more than projected led most of us to believe the money taps were still flowing, I think. Instead the taps were turned off rather abruptly.
I started this thread over 3 weeks ago and was saying it in other threads prior to that. At one point i called Montgomery a low end #2 to high end #3 SP and was pounced on for that. Low and behold someone up above on this thread very recently posted that the Yankees view him as a #3 and they probably know him better than anyone.
Yamamoto signed on 12/22. It was fair for Monty and co to hold on for another month trying to squeeze a huge deal out of someone. But by late January, why weren't his agents calling teams that made generational-money offers earlier to see if they would still do something similar to what had been on the table? Maybe they were, but my guess is that they all remained stuck in their hero narratives long past the point where it was reasonable. The message from teams wasn't just that the market cooled off -- it's that it's NOT THE SAME MARKET! Age is everything in starting pitching.
I certainly wasn't one that "pounced" on you -we're all entitled to our own opinions, right - but I will say that if you have huge money deals on the table for Cole (an Ace) and Rodon (I don't personally like the player, but they paid him like a 2 for sure) AND had just offered Snell 5/$150m and immediately pivoted to Stroman, I'd probably see Monty as a 3 as well and possibly even a #4. Difference between rotations though, clearly.
I don't think those numbers matter. To the Yankees, JM is a no. 3 or possibly no. 4. To the Sox, he'd be immediately their best pitcher based on career precedent. Since the Yankees traded him, Montgomery has been one of the best pitchers in the league and it's been gone over dozens of times. The issue is that his ceiling is likely already the precedent he's set and with his age, he's likely to have one or two more years of that level then he's the type that some think will fall off a cliff. I suspect he's more likely to be a good, not great mid rotation guy with a 4.00 ERA for the following 2 seasons, maybe 3. Not going to kill your team at all, but someone who a team doesn't want to pay $30M AAV for.
Better said than my post response.
The Yankees also traded him for Harrison Bader in the first place so their evaluation of him may be slightly suspect.
Smart trade actually, would do it again. It turned out as badly as it possibly could have, yet still NY won a playoff series they would not have without Bader on the roster (he went nuts in the 2022 postseason). NY was going to lose Montgomery in a year and a half, he wasn't going to crack the 2022 postseason rotation (correctly) and they wanted to give Clarke Schmidt a shot, as they had team control over him for four additional seasons. Schmidt made all 32 starts last year, improved his stuff again this past winter, and looks very solid coming into 2024.
This is very well laid out. There are 30 teams that haven't signed him. Probably at least 20 of them had no intention. The 3 that I'm most surprised about are the Yankees (Cole's uncertainty, Rodon's bounceback) the Rangers (a place he was comfortable, their SP injuries, TX low tax rates) and the Mets (plenty of $$, thin SP, Senga injury). I guess I would put the Red Sox next, especially after Giolito went down, so the only conclusion is John Henry said no big deals for SP over 30 right now, or Breslow simply doesn't value him as even a 20m per year SP or both.
Thanks.
I was really surprised when that happened in the middle of a playoff run for them and I'm still surprised by it. Maybe there is something about him they just didn't like or he didn't like about NYC?
Funny enough, I feel the same way about Montgomery (and Schmidt now) and Kutter Crawford. From age 24-27 (25-27 for Kutter) the H/9, K%, BB%, HR/9, FIP are all very close. Montgomery has a huge edge in ERA and we could probably discuss at length why that is, but it's part of the reason I am really high on Crawford going into 2024.
They had him under contract still for a season and a half at that point.
I mean I know you needed an OF and you had excess pitching, and I'm happy for you that he got hot for a couple weeks in October, but trading a sub-4 ERA workhorse for a defense first averagish OF bat with the same amount of control isn't good business. I'd be pissed if my team did that.
NY won a playoff series in 2022 that they would have lost without this trade, that's a pretty massive impact for a trade involving guys under control for a year and two months.
My dad is a huge Yankees fan and he is still pissed about it! @jon abbey obviously knows his team very well and makes good points, but with SP at such a premium, it just feels like they could've gotten more in an offseason trade, IMO.
I suppose they are their own market of one. Glasnow is a huge high stakes gamble, although maybe his MRI made them think it was a better bet than we know from the outside. If his reliability is no worse than his 30-year-old peers, and his ceiling is as high as they come, AND you just made a mockery of the MLB contract structure by paying the two best free agents almost nothing up front, then it makes some sense. Worst case scenario is that you can move the Glasnow deal at some point, with some cash. even if he's hurt.
NY was also facing Judge's FA, their 2023 OF was a complete question mark and putting Bader in place a few months early (for the spot that Trent Grisham now has) helped.
I googled "Patriots trade No. 3 pick"I may or may not have googled "Jordan Montgomery" during the down time.
Age is a big deal, absolutely. But Nola is also over 30, was projected by MLBTR to get $150 mill, and got $172 mill, and reportedly turned down higher offers to stay with the Phils.
Career bWAR so far...
There's also something to be said for the Phils having better knowledge of Nola's well-being than anyone else. They leapt at giving him a big contract super early in the process just to make sure they could hold on to him. Maybe that's just Dombrowski being Dombrowski, but it could also be that they felt more confident about him moving forward than they did about guys who are relatively unknown to them. The devil you know and all that. Basically the same thinking that might have motivated Dombrowski to extend Sale when he did.
1 year 25mm with a second year that vest with 10 starts.
