Revised contract predictions for Snell and Montgomery

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RS2004foreever

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My guess is he signs Friday. The only think that makes sense is he wants a 1 year opt-out. I would go 4 years $100 with a 5th year option based on the number of starts. That would be a total of $125 but the last would not be guaranteed.
If I had to bet is one of the NY clubs.
 

SuperManny

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My guess is he signs Friday. The only think that makes sense is he wants a 1 year opt-out. I would go 4 years $100 with a 5th year option based on the number of starts. That would be a total of $125 but the last would not be guaranteed.
If I had to bet is one of the NY clubs.
I would guess that it will be similarly structured to Snell where its a short multi-year contract with an opt out each year
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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My guess is he signs Friday. The only think that makes sense is he wants a 1 year opt-out. I would go 4 years $100 with a 5th year option based on the number of starts. That would be a total of $125 but the last would not be guaranteed.
If I had to bet is one of the NY clubs.
A one year could be a disaster though. Especially without a QO attached it encourages whoever he signs with to run him into the ground. A two year at least ensures the team will try to keep him in good health.... but then that puts him 2 years older and lucky at that point, even if he pitches well, to get another 2 year offer. Boras really screwed this up if anyone was offering a 4 or 5 year at $100M. He'll be lucky to get a $40M the next two seasons and likely less than that for the possible second two year.
 

HfxBob

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My guess is he signs Friday. The only think that makes sense is he wants a 1 year opt-out. I would go 4 years $100 with a 5th year option based on the number of starts. That would be a total of $125 but the last would not be guaranteed.
If I had to bet is one of the NY clubs.
I just wonder if it makes any sense for any team to give a 4 year guaranteed contract with a 1 year opt out. Seems incredibly risky for the team.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I just wonder if it makes any sense for any team to give a 4 year guaranteed contract with a 1 year opt out. Seems incredibly risky for the team.
I don't wish Montgomery to be screwed out of playing or making what he's worth in this market but it really seems like it's some kinda karma for Boras and free agent pitchers. It's been pretty well established by now that the amount of teams that get the "value" out of the older FA pitcher on some max contracts are few and far between (fair or not is another discussion with regards to getting way more value out of them during their controlled years). There's only so many "fool me once..." type of deals before things fall apart and unfortunately it ends up hitting a guy like Montgomery.
As I say this I'm also aware of how likely I am to be completely wrong- I did project that Ohtani would only get $40M a year for a 7 year max....
 

CR67dream

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I just wonder if it makes any sense for any team to give a 4 year guaranteed contract with a 1 year opt out. Seems incredibly risky for the team.
They could take a page out of Garret Cole's deal and put an option for the team to void it with an extra year tacked on at the end. Obviously the numbers would be very different. In any case, I expect some creativity in whatever deal he finally signs.

Cole
_____________
If Cole indeed exercises his opt out, the Yankees have a mechanism to void it. If they add a tenth year onto his
contract for another $36 million, he will remain in New York through the 2029 season when he’ll be 38 years old.
____________
 

chawson

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Glasnow territory being 5/136.5.

Maybe Monty is still just asking too much and it's as simple as that. He knows this is his one big shot at the money and he's going to max it out.
Glasnow’s contract extension is more like 4/$111M than 5/$136.5. He was already guaranteed $25 million this year.

A 4/$111 million deal for Montgomery still seems pretty high relative to his contemporaries and comparables the last decade or so. Though it also seems like a deal compared with Nola’s 7/$172M. I’d be happy with it, but mostly I just want it to be over.
 

EvilEmpire

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A one year could be a disaster though. Especially without a QO attached it encourages whoever he signs with to run him into the ground. A two year at least ensures the team will try to keep him in good health.... but then that puts him 2 years older and lucky at that point, even if he pitches well, to get another 2 year offer. Boras really screwed this up if anyone was offering a 4 or 5 year at $100M. He'll be lucky to get a $40M the next two seasons and likely less than that for the possible second two year.
I don't think a team will abuse him or that he will let himself be abused.

If he has another good year, hitting free agency next season without a qualifying offer will work out for him just fine.

We'll see what he gets soon enough, but I think there will be at least one team happy to take him on a short deal with a decent AAV who isn't worried about the extra value they would get from a QO. A team that doesn't want a longterm commitment and that likely has playoff aspirations.
 

Cassvt2023

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I'm guessing he got a 4-5 year offer over 100m early on and rejected it, and now no team is willing or has the money to go beyond 4/85-90m.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I don't think a team will abuse him or that he will let himself be abused.

If he has another good year, hitting free agency next season without a qualifying offer will work out for him just fine.

We'll see what he gets soon enough, but I think there will be at least one team happy to take him on a short deal with a decent AAV who isn't worried about the extra value they would get from a QO. A team that doesn't want a longterm commitment and that likely has playoff aspirations.
Some of them want to be abused.
 

HfxBob

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Boras is taking a lot of heat for over-pricing his guys, but I don't think anyone saw this kind of belt-tightening coming, just one year removed from Bogaerts getting $280 million.

The usually somewhat reliable MLBTR predicted Snell at 7/200 and Monty at 6/150. I won't mention their prediction for Bellinger.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Thanks for the assist.

But seriously..... what choice would Montgomery have in "not being abused" by whatever team he signs with on a hypothetical one year offer without a QO tagged on? And what's abuse? More than 200 innings? More than 100 pitches in a game? Going on 3 days rest? Why can a team ask one pitcher to do that but not a one year FA signing? More and more it just seems like JM is really twisting himself into getting screwed.
 

EvilEmpire

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But seriously..... what choice would Montgomery have in "not being abused" by whatever team he signs with on a hypothetical one year offer without a QO tagged on? And what's abuse? More than 200 innings? More than 100 pitches in a game? Going on 3 days rest? Why can a team ask one pitcher to do that but not a one year FA signing? More and more it just seems like JM is really twisting himself into getting screwed.
I think it's ridiculous to think such a thing will happen. He's a starting pitcher, not a reliever. He's going to pitch every five days and be around 100 pitches if he goes deep enough into the game. If he gets asked to pitch on 3 or 4 days rest it will be in the playoffs and won't happen enough to be abusive.

I just don't buy the idea that Montgomery is completely screwed because he might be pitching on a short deal without a QO or that teams who presumably want to be able to attract FA pitchers in the future would abuse him because of it.
 
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nvalvo

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My speculation about Montgomery is this. The Sox have the best multiyear offer out to him, but it’s 3-4 years at a total below what he wants. He also has at least one one-year offer, probably from Arizona, but would like either something like Snell got from SF or a 5-6 year 9-figure contract. Standoff.
 

Cassvt2023

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I think it's ridiculous to think such a thing will happen. He's a starting pitcher, not a reliever. He's going to pitch every five days and be around 100 pitches if he goes deep enough into the game. If he gets asked to pitch on 3 or 4 days rest it will be in the playoffs and won't happen enough to be abusive.

I just don't buy the idea that Montgomery is completely screwed because he might be pitching on a short deal without a QO or that teams who presumably want to be able to attract FA pitcher's in the future would abuse him because of it.
I agree that no team would take such tactics as those suggested in this day and age. But I do believe JM may be screwed in that he probably cost himself between $75-100 million dollars in total outlay very similar to Snell, by completely overreaching and rejecting an earlier offer.
 

HfxBob

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I agree that no team would take such tactics as those suggested in this day and age. But I do believe JM may be screwed in that he probably cost himself between $75-100 million dollars in total outlay very similar to Snell, by completely overreaching and rejecting an earlier offer.
It's kind of easy to say now that they over-reached. Seeing Yamamoto get $100 million more than projected led most of us to believe the money taps were still flowing, I think. Instead the taps were turned off rather abruptly.
 

Cassvt2023

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It's kind of easy to say now that they over-reached. Seeing Yamamoto get $100 million more than projected led most of us to believe the money taps were still flowing, I think. Instead the taps were turned off rather abruptly.
I started this thread over 3 weeks ago and was saying it in other threads prior to that. At one point i called Montgomery a low end #2 to high end #3 SP and was pounced on for that. Low and behold someone up above on this thread very recently posted that the Yankees view him as a #3 and they probably know him better than anyone.
 

chrisfont9

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It's kind of easy to say now that they over-reached. Seeing Yamamoto get $100 million more than projected led most of us to believe the money taps were still flowing, I think. Instead the taps were turned off rather abruptly.
Yamamoto signed on 12/22. It was fair for Monty and co to hold on for another month trying to squeeze a huge deal out of someone. But by late January, why weren't his agents calling teams that made generational-money offers earlier to see if they would still do something similar to what had been on the table? Maybe they were, but my guess is that they all remained stuck in their hero narratives long past the point where it was reasonable. The message from teams wasn't just that the market cooled off -- it's that it's NOT THE SAME MARKET! Age is everything in starting pitching.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I started this thread over 3 weeks ago and was saying it in other threads prior to that. At one point i called Montgomery a low end #2 to high end #3 SP and was pounced on for that. Low and behold someone up above on this thread very recently posted that the Yankees view him as a #3 and they probably know him better than anyone.
I certainly wasn't one that "pounced" on you -we're all entitled to our own opinions, right - but I will say that if you have huge money deals on the table for Cole (an Ace) and Rodon (I don't personally like the player, but they paid him like a 2 for sure) AND had just offered Snell 5/$150m and immediately pivoted to Stroman, I'd probably see Monty as a 3 as well and possibly even a #4. Difference between rotations though, clearly.

FWIW, I don't think we see Montgomery that differently - I think of him as a #2 starter, personally. That said, I think the Red Sox rotation is a #2 (Bello) and a bunch of guys that better profile as #4 and #5 starters in an organization that ostensibly wants to contend for World Series titles.

It'd be totally reasonable for the Yankees to view him as a #3 starter while understanding that on the Red Sox, he'd probably pretty easily be #1a at worst (depending on what "value" calculator one chooses to follow).
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I started this thread over 3 weeks ago and was saying it in other threads prior to that. At one point i called Montgomery a low end #2 to high end #3 SP and was pounced on for that. Low and behold someone up above on this thread very recently posted that the Yankees view him as a #3 and they probably know him better than anyone.
I don't think those numbers matter. To the Yankees, JM is a no. 3 or possibly no. 4. To the Sox, he'd be immediately their best pitcher based on career precedent. Since the Yankees traded him, Montgomery has been one of the best pitchers in the league and it's been gone over dozens of times. The issue is that his ceiling is likely already the precedent he's set and with his age, he's likely to have one or two more years of that level then he's the type that some think will fall off a cliff. I suspect he's more likely to be a good, not great mid rotation guy with a 4.00 ERA for the following 2 seasons, maybe 3. Not going to kill your team at all, but someone who a team doesn't want to pay $30M AAV for.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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To be fair, if you have huge money deals on the table for Cole (an Ace) and Rodon (I don't personally like the player, but they paid him like a 2 for sure) AND had just offered Snell 5/$150m and immediately pivoted to Stroman, I'd probably see Monty as a 3 as well and possibly even a #4. Difference between rotations though, clearly.

FWIW, I don't think we see Montgomery that differently - I think of him as a #2 starter, personally. That said, I think the Red Sox rotation is a #2 (Bello) and a bunch of guys that better profile as #4 and #5 starters in an organization that ostensibly wants to contend for World Series titles.

It'd be totally reasonable for the Yankees to view him as a #3 starter while understanding that on the Red Sox, he'd probably pretty easily be #1a at worst (depending on what "value" calculator one chooses to follow).
Better said than my post response.
I also think it's the Rodon types that have blown out "good" starting pitching valuations- guys that have been injured with a few good seasons and some crappy ones getting paid similar to guys like Snell. The dropoff in their contracts just isn't equalling the value in their production (past or likely future).
 

simplicio

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I started this thread over 3 weeks ago and was saying it in other threads prior to that. At one point i called Montgomery a low end #2 to high end #3 SP and was pounced on for that. Low and behold someone up above on this thread very recently posted that the Yankees view him as a #3 and they probably know him better than anyone.
The Yankees also traded him for Harrison Bader in the first place so their evaluation of him may be slightly suspect.
 

jon abbey

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The Yankees also traded him for Harrison Bader in the first place so their evaluation of him may be slightly suspect.
Smart trade actually, would do it again. It turned out as badly as it possibly could have, yet still NY won a playoff series they would not have without Bader on the roster (he went nuts in the 2022 postseason). NY was going to lose Montgomery in a year and a half, he wasn't going to crack the 2022 postseason rotation (correctly) and they wanted to give Clarke Schmidt a shot, as they had team control over him for four additional seasons. Schmidt made all 32 starts last year, improved his stuff again this past winter, and looks very solid coming into 2024.

As a side note, the parallels between Montgomery and Schmidt are pretty surprising, both draft picks from the same college (South Carolina) and with pretty similar age-compared numbers. I posted them last week in the NY section but can dig them up again if anyone is curious.
 

Cassvt2023

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To be fair, if you have huge money deals on the table for Cole (an Ace) and Rodon (I don't personally like the player, but they paid him like a 2 for sure) AND had just offered Snell 5/$150m and immediately pivoted to Stroman, I'd probably see Monty as a 3 as well and possibly even a #4. Difference between rotations though, clearly.

FWIW, I don't think we see Montgomery that differently - I think of him as a #2 starter, personally. That said, I think the Red Sox rotation is a #2 (Bello) and a bunch of guys that better profile as #4 and #5 starters in an organization that ostensibly wants to contend for World Series titles.

It'd be totally reasonable for the Yankees to view him as a #3 starter while understanding that on the Red Sox, he'd probably pretty easily be #1a at worst (depending on what "value" calculator one chooses to follow).
This is very well laid out. There are 30 teams that haven't signed him. Probably at least 20 of them had no intention. The 3 that I'm most surprised about are the Yankees (Cole's uncertainty, Rodon's bounceback) the Rangers (a place he was comfortable, their SP injuries, TX low tax rates) and the Mets (plenty of $$, thin SP, Senga injury). I guess I would put the Red Sox next, especially after Giolito went down, so the only conclusion is John Henry said no big deals for SP over 30 right now, or Breslow simply doesn't value him as even a 20m per year SP or both.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Better said than my post response.
I also think it's the Rodon types that have blown out "good" starting pitching valuations- guys that have been injured with a few good seasons and some crappy ones getting paid similar to guys like Snell. The dropoff in their contracts just isn't equalling the value in their production (past or likely future).
Thanks.

Also, I strongly agree on the bolded.

It wasn't the Yamamoto deal that totally threw off my projections for starters this off-season. I kind of always assumed that was going into the $200m plus territory pretty easily. It was the deal to Nola (whom I personally have ahead of Snell or Monty) being right about where expected and then the deal that LAD threw at Glasnow. The idea that a 9 year MLB veteran that has never started 22 games (and has literally one season starting more than 15) would get 4/$110m or however one wants to look at the extension and Snell would have to settle for what he got and Monty being still unemployed is just mind boggling to me.

But I supposed it's just LA being LA and all, in some cases.

I'm not at all shocked that Blake Snell DID NOT get 10/$225m. I'm very shocked he didn't get something in the range of 6/$165m or some such.


I hate to say it, but Breslow also looking at the organization (with fresh eyes) and saying "we are in the very beginning stages of a rebuild and I view Monty as SP1 but the team is so far away that by the time we're good again he's going to be 34" is also a possible conclusion. I'm not saying that he certainly feels that way - I'm saying it's another possible scenario where one could see Monty as SP1 and still make the choice not to sign him - though I agree the most likely scenario is that FSG has said "no more big money contracts to SPs over 30" for the record.
 
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Cassvt2023

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The Yankees also traded him for Harrison Bader in the first place so their evaluation of him may be slightly suspect.
I was really surprised when that happened in the middle of a playoff run for them and I'm still surprised by it. Maybe there is something about him they just didn't like or he didn't like about NYC?
 

LogansDad

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As a side note, the parallels between Montgomery and Schmidt are pretty surprising, both draft picks from the same college (South Carolina) and with pretty similar age-compared numbers. I posted them last week in the NY section but can dig them up again if anyone is curious.
Funny enough, I feel the same way about Montgomery (and Schmidt now) and Kutter Crawford. From age 24-27 (25-27 for Kutter) the H/9, K%, BB%, HR/9, FIP are all very close. Montgomery has a huge edge in ERA and we could probably discuss at length why that is, but it's part of the reason I am really high on Crawford going into 2024.
 

jon abbey

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I was really surprised when that happened in the middle of a playoff run for them and I'm still surprised by it. Maybe there is something about him they just didn't like or he didn't like about NYC?
They had him under contract still for a season and a half at that point.

remainder of the 2022 regular season: NY had such a big lead in the division at the trading deadline that Cashman made moves for the postseason and for future seasons. Montgomery's presence wasn't going to affect NY's 2022 regular season position, they were almost certainly going to end up with a top 2 seed in the postseason (and they did, despite somewhat collapsing down the stretch).

2022 postseason: NY believed Montgomery was their 5th best option for a postseason start, again I think correctly at the time. Cole, Cortes, Severino and Taillon were all ahead of him, so Montgomery was not going to be a factor in the 2022 postseason for NY.

2023 season: Montgomery's final season of control, but Cashman knew he'd be going after Rodon that winter and he wanted to give Schmidt a chance.

Bader somehow forgot how to hit, I don't think anyone would have really predicted that, but I liked the move then and I am fine with it in retrospect too.
 

simplicio

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Smart trade actually, would do it again. It turned out as badly as it possibly could have, yet still NY won a playoff series they would not have without Bader on the roster (he went nuts in the 2022 postseason). NY was going to lose Montgomery in a year and a half, he wasn't going to crack the 2022 postseason rotation (correctly) and they wanted to give Clarke Schmidt a shot, as they had team control over him for four additional seasons. Schmidt made all 32 starts last year, improved his stuff again this past winter, and looks very solid coming into 2024.

As a side note, the parallels between Montgomery and Schmidt are pretty surprising, both draft picks from the same college (South Carolina) and with pretty similar age-compared numbers. I posted them last week in the NY section but can dig them up again if anyone is curious.
I mean I know you needed an OF and you had excess pitching, and I'm happy for you that he got hot for a couple weeks in October, but trading a sub-4 ERA workhorse for a defense first averagish OF bat with the same amount of control isn't good business. I'd be pissed if my team did that.
 

jon abbey

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I mean I know you needed an OF and you had excess pitching, and I'm happy for you that he got hot for a couple weeks in October, but trading a sub-4 ERA workhorse for a defense first averagish OF bat with the same amount of control isn't good business. I'd be pissed if my team did that.
NY won a playoff series in 2022 that they would have lost without this trade, that's a pretty massive impact for a trade involving guys under control for a year and two months.

Also, Bader had a 3.8 bWAR in 2021 and is from NYC, there was definitely a lot of potential upside there. Repeating myself, but I thought this trade was a good one the day they made it and I am still completely fine with it. NY wanted no part of an increasingly pricy Montgomery, and seemingly neither do any of the other 29 teams currently since he is still unsigned.
 

Cassvt2023

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I mean I know you needed an OF and you had excess pitching, and I'm happy for you that he got hot for a couple weeks in October, but trading a sub-4 ERA workhorse for a defense first averagish OF bat with the same amount of control isn't good business. I'd be pissed if my team did that.
My dad is a huge Yankees fan and he is still pissed about it! @jon abbey obviously knows his team very well and makes good points, but with SP at such a premium, it just feels like they could've gotten more in an offseason trade, IMO.
 

chrisfont9

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It wasn't the Yamamoto deal that totally threw off my projections for starters this off-season. I kind of always assumed that was going into the $200m plus territory pretty easily. It was the deal to Nola (whom I personally have ahead of Snell or Monty) being right about where expected and then the deal that LAD threw at Glasnow. The idea that a 9 year MLB veteran that has never started 22 games (and has literally one season starting more than 15) would get 4/$110m or however one wants to look at the extension and Snell would have to settle for what he got and Monty being still unemployed is just mind boggling to me.

But I supposed it's just LA being LA and all, in some cases.
I suppose they are their own market of one. Glasnow is a huge high stakes gamble, although maybe his MRI made them think it was a better bet than we know from the outside. If his reliability is no worse than his 30-year-old peers, and his ceiling is as high as they come, AND you just made a mockery of the MLB contract structure by paying the two best free agents almost nothing up front, then it makes some sense. Worst case scenario is that you can move the Glasnow deal at some point, with some cash. even if he's hurt.

LA badly needs a WS win with actual fans watching. It's kind of embarrassing how little they have to show for their decade of massive talent and money advantages. How Roberts is still their manager I have no idea.
 

jon abbey

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My dad is a huge Yankees fan and he is still pissed about it! @jon abbey obviously knows his team very well and makes good points, but with SP at such a premium, it just feels like they could've gotten more in an offseason trade, IMO.
NY was also facing Judge's FA, their 2023 OF was a complete question mark and putting Bader in place a few months early (for the spot that Trent Grisham now has) helped.
 

RS2004foreever

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I suppose they are their own market of one. Glasnow is a huge high stakes gamble, although maybe his MRI made them think it was a better bet than we know from the outside. If his reliability is no worse than his 30-year-old peers, and his ceiling is as high as they come, AND you just made a mockery of the MLB contract structure by paying the two best free agents almost nothing up front, then it makes some sense. Worst case scenario is that you can move the Glasnow deal at some point, with some cash. even if he's hurt.

LA badly needs a WS win with actual fans watching. It's kind of embarrassing how little they have to show for their decade of massive talent and money advantages. How Roberts is still their manager I have no idea.
Glasnow is a top 10 pitcher if healthy.
 

HfxBob

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Yamamoto signed on 12/22. It was fair for Monty and co to hold on for another month trying to squeeze a huge deal out of someone. But by late January, why weren't his agents calling teams that made generational-money offers earlier to see if they would still do something similar to what had been on the table? Maybe they were, but my guess is that they all remained stuck in their hero narratives long past the point where it was reasonable. The message from teams wasn't just that the market cooled off -- it's that it's NOT THE SAME MARKET! Age is everything in starting pitching.
Age is a big deal, absolutely. But Nola is also over 30, was projected by MLBTR to get $150 mill, and got $172 mill, and reportedly turned down higher offers to stay with the Phils.
 

chrisfont9

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Age is a big deal, absolutely. But Nola is also over 30, was projected by MLBTR to get $150 mill, and got $172 mill, and reportedly turned down higher offers to stay with the Phils.
Career bWAR so far...
Monty: 12.6
Glasnow: 7.1
Snell: 21.3
Nola: 31.6

Such a weird market, none of these guys are apples to apples. Nola has a huge "past performance" edge, including consistent durability. As long as that correlates to future durability, you'd pay for that, but does it? Or would you rather he got his elbow fixed up already? He might just have a rubber arm. Oh and his stats last year were mostly down from his peak, although similar to some previous seasons, so maybe that's his baseline. His pitch FX numbers don't look like they've changed. I guess you can talk yourself into Nola coming with significantly less risk and/or more performance upside than the others.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Career bWAR so far...
Monty: 12.6
Glasnow: 7.1
Snell: 21.3
Nola: 31.6

Such a weird market, none of these guys are apples to apples. Nola has a huge "past performance" edge, including consistent durability. As long as that correlates to future durability, you'd pay for that, but does it? Or would you rather he got his elbow fixed up already? He might just have a rubber arm. Oh and his stats last year were mostly down from his peak, although similar to some previous seasons, so maybe that's his baseline. His pitch FX numbers don't look like they've changed. I guess you can talk yourself into Nola coming with significantly less risk and/or more performance upside than the others.
There's also something to be said for the Phils having better knowledge of Nola's well-being than anyone else. They leapt at giving him a big contract super early in the process just to make sure they could hold on to him. Maybe that's just Dombrowski being Dombrowski, but it could also be that they felt more confident about him moving forward than they did about guys who are relatively unknown to them. The devil you know and all that. Basically the same thinking that might have motivated Dombrowski to extend Sale when he did.
 

RedOctober3829

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I nailed the $25 million/year but AZ only has to give him 2 years and the 2nd is a beating option. What an absolute embarrassment this is for this ownership group. You weren’t willing to do something like this? What a joke.
 

thepriceisright

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Looks like 1 year/$25 MM with a vesting option for a second year at the same AAV if he makes 10 starts. Don't think he was ever going to go to Boston on a contract that length
 

BaseballJones

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Maybe Boston will be good this year. But they desperately needed a starting pitcher (two, really), and came away with, ultimately, -1.

GJGE
 

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