Revised contract predictions for Snell and Montgomery

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Cassvt2023

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Now that Boras' top two hitters on FA market have settled for much shorter pillow contracts, what are your predictions for what the top two pitchers will end up signing for?
 

Cassvt2023

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Snell: 3/yr 88m with an opt out after year 2 and a player option for years 4 and 5 at 28 m per year. 2m bonus each year for 30 games started. Potential for 5/yr 150m.

Montgomery: 4/yr 105m with opt outs after year 1 and 3. player option for yr/ 5 at 25m. 2.5m dollar bonus for top 3 Cy Young votes each year. Potential for 5/yr 140m.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Re: Snell - is it pretty much a given that his 6/150 (I think) offer from the MFY is off the table at this point.

Seems like a pretty harsh miscalculation on the part of Snell and Boras.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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Montgomery: 4/yr 105m with opt outs after year 1 and 3. player option for yr/ 5 at 25m. 2.5m dollar bonus for top 3 Cy Young votes each year. Potential for 5/yr 140m.
5/130 guaranteed PLUS opt outs is way too much imo. If he goes the 1 yr opt out route it will be more like 3/75 or 4/90 guaranteed. But I don't think it makes any sense for JM to do that since he will likely never be in a better position than this offseason (age, prior years performance). I am guessing he has offers in the 4/100-110 range and is trying to convince some to go 5 guaranteed. I will say 4/105 with a 5th yr $27M vesting option for 150 innings in 2027.
 

radsoxfan

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As far as the "flexible pillow contracts" go, it's worth remembering the difference between hitters and pitchers. Chapman and Bellinger opting for much lower guarantees is one thing, but probably harder to convince a pitcher to do the same.

Maybe they will still do something similar, but pitchers have a higher risk of a catastrophic injury/flame out than hitters in general. Seems like they should be trying to maximize the guaranteed $ coming off strong seasons and value the flexible portion of these early opt-outs much less than the hitters.
 

RG33

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3 years at $85M with an opt-out after year 1 and 2 for Montgomery. There will also be a clause that says Red Sox fans must say “Breslow read the market well and maybe FSG aren’t cheap after all” included by Sam Kennedy.
 

radsoxfan

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5/130 guaranteed PLUS opt outs is way too much imo.
Agree, if you are going to give someone early opt outs as a team you really need to drive the guaranteed $ way down.

Otherwise, you aren't mitigating your risk of a lot of dead $ or getting much potential positive value if they do perform well.
 

radsoxfan

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3 years at $85M with an opt-out after year 1 and 2 for Montgomery.
Assuming a flat structure, you are basically paying Montgomery 1/28 plus giving him a nice 2/56 insurance policy if something happens to him or he is bad. I suppose for a team that is on the verge of a title maybe the 1 year upside is there, but otherwise I would dislike this Bellinger-type structure if the Red Sox are involved.

Whats is a 2/56M insurance policy for years 2 and 3 worth, knowing that it will only kick in if Montgomery underperforms that contract? Probably quite a bit. Combined with the Year 1 salary, it's maybe the equivalent of a 1/40M contract as far as overall value?
 
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simplicio

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I do think QO eligibility is going to lead Montgomery to go for longer years without the opt outs; an opt out after year one would just put him back on the market a year older against a stronger FA starter class and with extra baggage vs his opportunity right now.
 

Cassvt2023

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Montgomery - 4 years/92 million - 26/24/22/20 - opt out after Year 2.
This seems reasonable. Sign me up, hoping that he opts out because that means we likely got 2 good years out of him and hopefully our pitching 2 years from now under the new program is in a much better place.
 

benhogan

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3 years at $85M with an opt-out after year 1 and 2 for Montgomery. There will also be a clause that says Red Sox fans must say “Breslow read the market well and maybe FSG aren’t cheap after all” included by Sam Kennedy.
If you aren't the Dodgers or Yankees, patience in Free Agency isn't a bad way to get the best bang for your buck.

Of course, the downside is you do lose out on the shiniest new toys & Scott Boras takes you off his Xmas card list.
 

j-man

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i think snell wants to play for SEA or LAA
idk why u guys have not signed montgormery

snell 1y 35 mil for sea laa only otherwise 3y/120 mil with opt outs after 1 and 2
mont i think he would take 10% less to go to bos
3y 90 mil for bos 3y 105 for everyone else
 

HfxBob

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If you aren't the Dodgers or Yankees, patience in Free Agency isn't a bad way to get the best bang for your buck.

Of course, the downside is you do lose out on the shiniest new toys & Scott Boras takes you off his Xmas card list.
Or, as with the Red Sox last offseason, you end up with Corey Kluber.
 

HfxBob

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yep a $9MM blunder.

Then again you can also end up with a 30yr old JD Martinez
Have to look at each situation on its own merits, I think. Martinez was a case where the Red Sox were the obvious choice to sign him, but Boras's initial ask was ridiculous, so Dombrowski waited him out. Which was a rather atypical thing of Dave to do, but in this case it was the proper strategy.

It was a great signing for sure.
 

bernie carb 33

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Kluber just might signify why Sox miss on Monty. A few years ago, Sox outbid the Yanks for Kluber, yet he signed with NY anyway on a smaller contract----he would just rather pitch somewhere else. (We got the weaker Kluber the next year.) Same with Heaney of the Rangers, we're high bidder, he wanted Rangers. The longer we wait for Monty's price to come down, the more teams that enter the bidding, and Boras has been known to shop the high bidder's price with the NYY.

I don't think Brez is that enamored with Monty anyway, JMO, and we end up with somebody like Lorenzen on another 1-year deal. Of course I'm hoping that the recent Sox methods will change to spending for a contract at least 2-3 years just to give us stability with unproven arms coming out of AAA. If we really want Monty this next week, it will take at least 4/$110
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Kluber just might signify why Sox miss on Monty. A few years ago, Sox outbid the Yanks for Kluber, yet he signed with NY anyway on a smaller contract----he would just rather pitch somewhere else. (We got the weaker Kluber the next year.) The longer we wait for Monty's price to come down, the more teams that enter the bidding, and Boras has been known to shop the high bidder's price with the NYY.

I don't think Brez is that enamored with Monty anyway, JMO, and we end up with somebody like Lorenzen on another 1-year deal. Of course I'm hoping that the recent Sox methods will change to spending for a contract at least 2-3 years just to give us stability with unproven arms coming out of AAA.
If Lorenzen was the target, he'd be signed by now. All projections for him are an AAV under $10M. That's barely more than what they're paying Pivetta. Of course, he doesn't really project to be any better than Pivetta. Or Crawford. Or Houck for that matter. So why spend $8-9M for something you're likely to get from cheaper, younger pitchers already on board?

It only makes sense for Breslow to be targeting Montgomery (or Snell) at this point because Montgomery (or Snell) is the only one projected to be an upgrade from the guys currently competing for the back end of the rotation. If the Sox don't sign him, I don't expect them to add anyone unless it's to a minor league deal (a la Cron).
 

OCD SS

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... So why spend $8-9M for something you're likely to get from cheaper, younger pitchers already on board?
Because the Sox need the innings/ depth.

I think you’re right though, the Sox can wait on Monty and if they can’t get him then they can pivot. I guess that we haven’t seen them pivot yet is an indication that they’re still in on him (or that they’re totally done).
 

nayrbrey

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Have two 'ace' pitchers ever been unsigned this late into Spring Training?
I believe we established a while ago that they are all aces.

Although seriously, you would probably need to go back to one of the spring trainings after a work stoppage or CBA agreement to find a situation to answer your question.
I recall a “free agent training camp” a few years ago when there was a threat of a lockout.

edit - or even further back in @HfxBob s answer.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I recall a “free agent training camp” a few years ago when there was a threat of a lockout.
It wasn't the threat of a lock-out. It was just another off-season where a lot of players went unsigned during the winter (2017-2018). Coincidentally (or not), most of the prominent free agents that winter who ended up signing right before or during spring training were also Scott Boras clients: Jake Arietta (signed 2/17/18), Eric Hosmer (2/19/18), and JD Martinez (2/26/18). Also in that party but not a Boras client: Yu Darvish (signed 2/13/18).

Perhaps there's a common denominator?
 

bernie carb 33

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Don't rule out the Philles and Dave D. on either of these guys:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/phillies-interested-in-blake-snell-on-short-term-contract.html

(Although, looking at the Giants' situation, yeah, they probably do make the most sense for the wanting-to-stay-out-west Snell)
The Giants announced that they lost a starter, Triston Beck to some upper arm injury. He'll require "minor surgery". It could be a short term affliction, but their not sure. He is a back of the rotation guy. The Giants give me quite a bit of angst, as they are eyeing how to improve and keep the Dodgers in their sights as are the Padres. They could shoot for Snell as a way to give a big bump to their pitching overall.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The Giants announced that they lost a starter to some freak elbow injury. It could be a short term affliction. He is a back of the rotation guy. The Giants give me quite a bit of angst, as they are eyeing how to improve and keep the Dodgers in their sights as are the Padres.
It's not an injury so much as a scary life-threatening situation. Tristan Beck is having surgery to remove an aneurysm from his arm. He's on the 60-day IL now so he won't be back until after Memorial Day at least.

The thing with the Giants is they've got Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray slated for mid-season returns. It appears their plan is to try to tread water until they can get them back. Beck was competing for a rotation spot but I'm not sure losing him dramatically changes their rotation plans. At least not so much that they'll suddenly be in the market for a pitcher if they weren't already.
 

chawson

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The thing with the Giants is they've got Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray slated for mid-season returns. It appears their plan is to try to tread water until they can get them back. Beck was competing for a rotation spot but I'm not sure losing him dramatically changes their rotation plans. At least not so much that they'll suddenly be in the market for a pitcher if they weren't already.
I’m not sure how much an upgrade Chapman is over J.D. Davis, provided the latter remains oddly newly excellent defensively. But I figured they wouldn’t have signed the former unless they had a pretty good idea of who they were gonna flip the latter for, too.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I honestly thought 100% that there was no way Snell and Montgomery were going to still be FA’s this morning. I know lots of teams (Philly with Snell) are interested in these guys for one season contracts but as discussed- both are too flawed to take that risk IMO- and I suspect it’s a few GM’a calling Boras’ bad hand out on this.
Now I’m guessing we’ll get another week of more unlikely matched teams leaking 1-year offers and then a realistic contract signing by the Ides of March.
Snell- Giants 4/110 with opt-out after 2
Montgomery- Boston 5/125 with opt out after 1
 

HfxBob

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I honestly thought 100% that there was no way Snell and Montgomery were going to still be FA’s this morning. I know lots of teams (Philly with Snell) are interested in these guys for one season contracts but as discussed- both are too flawed to take that risk IMO- and I suspect it’s a few GM’a calling Boras’ bad hand out on this.
Now I’m guessing we’ll get another week of more unlikely matched teams leaking 1-year offers and then a realistic contract signing by the Ides of March.
Snell- Giants 4/110 with opt-out after 2
Montgomery- Boston 5/125 with opt out after 1
So you think 3 out of Boras's Big 4 would fall way short of projections but Montgomery would come pretty close?
 

moondog80

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Yeah I can’t imagine giving Monty 5 years after seeing what both Chapman and Bellinger got.
 

bernie carb 33

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My uninformed guess, Boston can get a deal done this week for Monty with two or three competitors in the wings. If it goes to next week, after Boras' asking price falls even more, there will become 5 or more suitors in the mix. Then the Sox chances become a longer shot. And like a couple of you guys have been musing, does Breslow really want Monty more than what they have assembled in Ft. Myers this week.

Also those guys Cashman and Dombrowski can do some daring things on their cell phone in the off-season. The caveat, fans don't really know where Breslow stands at this point in the 2024 process. He essentially had no background in these deals at Chicago.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Yeah I can’t imagine giving Monty 5 years after seeing what both Chapman and Bellinger got.
Monty is different because he’s a pitcher and he doesn’t have a QO attached.

He seems the least likely of the Boras 4 to sign a pillow contract.

And if I’m the Red Sox I really have no desire to offer an opt out after 1 year. You need at least 2 years of him.

It’s an interesting situation.
 

moondog80

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Monty is different because he’s a pitcher and he doesn’t have a QO attached.

He seems the least likely of the Boras 4 to sign a pillow contract.

And if I’m the Red Sox I really have no desire to offer an opt out after 1 year. You need at least 2 years of him.

It’s an interesting situation.
We'll see. Bellinger didn't have a QO. I know he's not a pitcher, but he's two years younger than Monty and was ranked higher on the FA board than by both MLB, Fangraphs, and the Athletic (possibly others too, I only looked at those 3). If a team didn't want to go 4 years on Monty before, now they can really dig their heels in.
 
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simplicio

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Bellinger did have a QO, and it apparently suppressed his market enough that he re-signed with the Cubs.
 

moondog80

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Bellinger did have a QO, and it apparently suppressed his market enough that he re-signed with the Cubs.
You're right, my bad.

I'll still take the under on 4 years for Monty. Presumably all the sites I mentioned above did better research than I did, and they knew about the QO when the still projected more $$ and years for Bellinger.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Monty is different because he’s a pitcher and he doesn’t have a QO attached.

He seems the least likely of the Boras 4 to sign a pillow contract.

And if I’m the Red Sox I really have no desire to offer an opt out after 1 year. You need at least 2 years of him.

It’s an interesting situation.
The lack of the QO should make him the most likely to be offered a pillow deal, possibly from multiple teams. But since he is still eligible for a QO, he's also the least likely to want to take a pillow contract. Which is probably why he's still unemployed. His middle ground is probably wider than the others, so I can see where he would be the most likely of the four to get a four year deal. Where the opt-outs fall, if any, is the biggest sticking point if I were to guess.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I have no idea what to gauge for these guys. I was waaaaaay off on their markets. I'm truly astounded that Rodriguez got 4/$80m/$20m and Tyler Glasnow got 5/$135m/$27m from LAD (however one wants to figure in the one year plus additional) and that Snell and Montgomery still aren't signed, and for far more money.

I'm still going to go:
Snell gets 6/$150m/$25m from LAA with opt outs after 2 and 3.
Monty gets 5/$100m/$20m from someone that isn't Boston (I'll say Texas, maybe ChiC).

On Snell, I'd just be truly shocked for Boras to have misread the market so massively (turning down the Yankees offer). Though I think it'd be awesome if he did.

As an aside, I really do wonder if you're going to start to see QO attached free agents start waiting until June to sign (or whenever the penalty has reached it's statute of limitations). Probably not - I mean, Chapman took that deal and SF gave it to him (I'd have NO idea what SF is doing with that contract). But at some point it's almost got to start happening in greater frequency.

(Or teams really don't care about 2nd round picks as much as we thought / think they do.)
 

jon abbey

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As an aside, I really do wonder if you're going to start to see QO attached free agents start waiting until June to sign (or whenever the penalty has reached it's statute of limitations). Probably not - I mean, Chapman took that deal and SF gave it to him (I'd have NO idea what SF is doing with that contract). But at some point it's almost got to start happening in greater frequency.
The draft is later in the year now, not until mid-July now.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Thank you both. I always thought that QO penalties were tied to a specific date (ie June 1st or some such) and not a moving target (ie, "the MLB draft").

Appreciated.

*Which also makes the idea more and more unlikely for players to hold out that long.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Do they have to wait until June? I thought you couldn’t offer a QO to a player signed or acquired after the season starts.
 

LogansDad

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Do they have to wait until June? I thought you couldn’t offer a QO to a player signed or acquired after the season starts.
They are talking about players who already have QO's attached, so the full season that attached their QO to them was the previous season. The QO penalties are no longer valid once the draft takes place (because the draft picks are already used). I am unsure if the bonus pool effects would still take place. I do not think this tact behooves either the player or the signing team, but I may be wrong on that.

That said, the road I think you are heading down here is an interesting conversation. Should/would a player who is in danger of receiving a QO refuse to sign a deal until after the season starts?
 

Harry Hooper

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Do they have to wait until June? I thought you couldn’t offer a QO to a player signed or acquired after the season starts.
The reference was to the penalty for a team signing a FA who had received a QO from his original team.


Page 104 of the current CBA indicates the day before the draft as the last day the compensation (and penalty presumably) applies:

A Qualified Free Agent shall be subject to compensation only if: (i) his former Club tenders him a Qualifying Offer pursuant to paragraph (3) of this Section B; (ii) the Player declines the Qualifying Offer or signs a contract with another Major League Club prior to the expiration of the Acceptance Period; and (iii) the Player signs a Major League contract with another Major League Club that is confirmed by the Players Association and the LRD on or before the day prior to the next succeeding Major League Rule 4 Draft (“Rule 4 Draft”). A Qualified Free Agent who signs a bona fide Minor League contract shall not be subject to compensation irrespective of whether the Minor League contract is subsequently assigned to the 104 105 Major League Club. No Club and Player may enter into any Major League or Minor League contract, or assign such a contract, with the intent to circumvent Article XX(B)(3) or XX(B)(4).
2022-2026 Basic Agreement
 

jon abbey

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Yes, I think that's been the case for a couple of years now.
Last year was the first year, it's a very stupid change as it forces baseball front offices to focus on the draft for an extra month and so it messes up the trade deadline (which is just two weeks later).
 

rockchalkredsox

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I know the 2021 MLB Draft was held during the All Star break since I was in the audience in Denver and watched Mayer fall to the Sox.
 

Cassvt2023

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My guess, and it's a complete guess, is that not one team has offered Montgomery a guaranteed 5th year. It's laughable to think, if it's true, that Boras was seeking 7 years at the start of free agency. As for Snell, the QO must be scaring teams off if they are looking for an early opt out. That and he tends to be fragile and did issue 100 walks last year.
 
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