Yup, they weren't as good as they were during the first half, and not as bad as they were to end things.Thanks, @Myt1!
I also went with "about the same." To pick up on the Giolito thread, I think last year's actual result - 78 wins, which included a better-than-that start of the season and a much-worse-than-that end, seems about right. On the plus side, I think the hitting and fielding will tick up as the young guys grow into MLers. On the downside, pitching. To me, it looks like the starters are weaker than last year, and the pen is going to get toasted by a six-man rotation of 4 2/3 starters.
I was probably at 'about the same' *with* Giolito, tbh. Sale and Paxon combined for nearly 200 innings of just better than league average pitching and 13-10, I wasn't sure Giolito could replace that even up, but I thought some of the young 'uns could level up.I thought the team with a (allegedly healthy) Giolito was a bit better than last year, and now with him out a bit worse. So, I said about the same.
I voted worse, largely due to the mental aspect, though the talent on paper is worse in its own right. Following another offseason of the team refusing to add a major piece the team will check out at the first sign of real trouble knowing no help is on the way but parts could be sold at any moment. Hell, they've already moved one major league part and are all but begging teams to take another part off their hands and it's not even Opening Day yet.Why better? Well, I am an optimist, so I cannot help myself!
More seriously, the mental aspect in baseball is huge. I am convinced that the Sox are in much better hands than in previous seasons. The enthusiasm that the new GM and pitching gurus have brought is contagious, especially with a group of young talented players eager to prove they belong (Grissom, Wong, Casas, Rafaela, Duran, Valdez, Reyes, etc.), alongside veterans that also want to prove themselves after subpar past seasons (Story, Yoshida, O'Neill, etc.).
So why not?
Before Giolito went down, it did at least seem possible.Seriously scratching my head at how 13 people here think this team is better this season......
Some people are always a little optimistic going into a season. Nothing wrong with that.Seriously scratching my head at how 13 people here think this team is better this season......
sadly, I agree here. ST season-ending injuries truly suck. The bright side is that the Sox can make a move. The other side is that they probably will not now.Worse, largely because our already razor thin margin for error on injuries has now evaporated without Giolito. I love potential upside of this team, and I'm rooting for good injury luck from here on our, but even "normal" amounts of injuries and a few players not hitting their upsides will probably be enough to sink our ship.
This is largely where I'm at.I don't see how this is a question. The Sox lost Turner, Duvall, Verdugo, Sale, and Paxton and replaced them with a bunch of question marks. Some improvement from Yoshida, probably, and maybe a few other young'uns, but that will be offset by their two best relievers turning 38 and 37. Unless Bailey is a miracle worker this is a shitty rotation and a mediocre bullpen at best. And the lineup is a huge downgrade unless Tyler O'Neill thinks its 2021 again and Grissom/Abreu/Rafaela are all Rookie of the Year candidates.
True to an extent, but you have to go through the whole list. Like, for example, they placed the-lampost-that-was-Enrique-Hernandez with a baseball player. Which has got to be worth -help me with the math here- 22 wins?I don't see how this is a question. The Sox lost Turner, Duvall, Verdugo, Sale, and Paxton and replaced them with a bunch of question marks. Some improvement from Yoshida, probably, and maybe a few other young'uns, but that will be offset by their two best relievers turning 38 and 37. Unless Bailey is a miracle worker this is a shitty rotation and a mediocre bullpen at best. And the lineup is a huge downgrade unless Tyler O'Neill thinks its 2021 again and Grissom/Abreu/Rafaela are all Rookie of the Year candidates.
I think this is in the realm of possibility, but still far from probable. Also quite concerned about everyone but Bello and Pivetta hitting a wall in August.Even without Giolito the starting pitching will be better than last year.
You can't just say Healthy Story > Injured Story because the 2024 team is going to have plenty of injuries too. We just don't know who they'll happen to.I assume they sign Duran.
Better: Grissom/Healthy Story/O'Neil/Better Rafy> loss pf Verdugo/Turner
Even without Giolito the starting pitching will be better than last year.
Well, no, of course we can't just say -- we can't just say anything with any certainty. Just as you can't say the 2024 team will have plenty of injuries with any certainty. Last year's team saw Duvall, Duran, and Story all miss substantial time, and then on top of that Kike and Arroyo went full pumpkin - the only people who really played over their heads, imo, were Duran, Verdugo, and Duvall, and the latter two not substantially more than we were expecting. So yes, Devers or Casas might go down, or our entire pitching staff might get really drunk one night and drive off the pier and die in a tragic clown car accident, etc., but we're going for ceteris paribus here, I would think. We're all having a little fun guessing, laying out our cases for our relative optimism or pessimism.You can't just say Healthy Story > Injured Story because the 2024 team is going to have plenty of injuries too. We just don't know who they'll happen to.
No, but we could say that 2023 Red Sox injury index was basically average. And it's pretty safe to assume that 2024 will be roughly average as well (though ESPN thinks the risks are a bit lower now, mostly because Chris Sale isn't on the roster, though I don't think that counts Giolito)Well, no, of course we can't just say -- we can't just say anything with any certainty. Just as you can't say the 2024 team will have plenty of injuries with any certainty.
Sure, but my whole point here is that the place where they lost the most time -- SS -- was the place where they also suffered the worst performance. The crap we ran out at SS ended up being, like, 3 wins below replacement level, and if Story is even a 2 win player that's a huge swing in value. That's all I'm getting at.No, but we could say that 2023 Red Sox injury index was basically average. And it's pretty safe to assume that 2024 will be roughly average as well (though ESPN thinks the risks are a bit lower now, mostly because Chris Sale isn't on the roster, though I don't think that counts Giolito)
This is all somewhat fair and I do think we're underestimating the drag the black holes at SS and 2B had on the 2023 team.Sure, but my whole point here is that the place where they lost the most time -- SS -- was the place where they also suffered the worst performance. The crap we ran out at SS ended up being, like, 3 wins below replacement level, and if Story is even a 2 win player that's a huge swing in value. That's all I'm getting at.
Again, it's possible Story falls off a cliff or gets injured again, and Grissom is terrible at 2B and his hit tool evaporates, but I think the more likely outcome at least there is that we're getting a floor of around 5 wins (combined) from those two positions rather than the disaster we got last year.
Oh well yeah. I’m optimistic for 82-83 wins with things breaking right and good health from here out….. Grissom coming back- and no Montgomery, but it’s March. Ask me again at the end of April and I could change it to way worse!This is all somewhat fair and I do think we're underestimating the drag the black holes at SS and 2B had on the 2023 team.
Still, the 2023 Sox also got ~5 WAR from Sale, Paxton, and Turner, and after Giolito's injury it seems none of them will have been replaced by new additions. Plus they're one more injury in the rotation (effectively a lock at some point) from running out openers and/or completely untested AAA depth.
Ultimately I vote for "About The Same," but don't discount the possibility that, like the 2023 Patriots, a mediocre roster that takes a few injury hits and suffers from a few down years can become a bad roster in a hurry.