Let's Lay Off That Throttle
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
We are looking at a 6-8 year rebuild currently.
I am wondering; what’s the expectation for a rebuild timeframe with a team with the resources of the Red Sox?
I don’t know. 8 years seems like a lot but maybe it’s reasonable.
Is 4 years enough, is 6 years the sweet spot.
Maybe it’s 12 years, there’s no guarantees and building a franchise is actually difficult and you need some “luck”.
Is there an “Industry” rule of thumb?
I am wondering; what’s the expectation for a rebuild timeframe with a team with the resources of the Red Sox?
I don’t know. 8 years seems like a lot but maybe it’s reasonable.
Is 4 years enough, is 6 years the sweet spot.
Maybe it’s 12 years, there’s no guarantees and building a franchise is actually difficult and you need some “luck”.
Is there an “Industry” rule of thumb?
I think it's fair to question that. Although heading into this offseason, the Mets were not known to be "in" on Yamamoto. After they traded Verlander and Scherzer at the deadline, Cohen basically said not to expect much this off-season and that they'd be re-tooling before going after it again in 2025. It was widely reported that the Mets decided to enter the Yamamoto bidding pretty late, which is why Cohen went on the charm offensive to Japan, etc.
As for the Yankees (and Dodgers), maybe their thought process over the course of the offseason was something like:
- Sox front office heavily scouted Yamamoto under Bloom and identified him as an elite pitcher and their #1 target. Their pre-offseason predictions suggest bidding could reach $200M.
- Breslow is hired and turns out he agrees with Sox scouts based on his assessment of YY from when Breslow was with the Cubs.
- Like most of baseball, they enter the offseason assuming the Dodgers are likely signing Ohtani to an ungodly sum.
- Early in the offseason, the Yankees are heavily linked to and eventually trade for Juan Soto, a rental who will be looking for a $500M+ contract in 12 months. NYY also just signed Rodon last off-season so they assume NYY might not be coming in at the top of the market for YY.
- Breslow pitches to ownership: "our intel suggests the bidding for Yamamoto could reach $200M+. We love this guy and think that he'd be a value even if we had to blow everyone else out of the water by offering $260M. And he fits the timeline of the Casas/Bello/Mayer/Anthony/Teel core because he's only 26 years old and not a typical FA pitcher."
- Ownership sees the logic and gives them the green light to aggressively pursue Yamamoto. Werner gets excited and makes a full-throttle comment.
- Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets actually do get heavily involved, bidding eventually reaches $300M+, which maybe the Red Sox are willing to do but it quickly becomes clear to them he has an LAD preference and LAD will end up matching anything.
Interesting question.
The Sox are similar in payroll (I think) to Texas, Houston and Atlanta (they're not going to spend like LAD, NYY or NYM) but I think $LTT(.97) puts them in line with those other type of teams.
I believe Texas took 8 years between their division winning teams around 2016 and the title last year.
The Braves took about 5 between in their recent rebuild.
Houston took 9 I believe.
Some of those teams had one off years of making the playoffs or finishing 2nd in their division or what not (like the 2021 Red Sox), but to get to the teams we have seen recently, those were the numbers you were talking about. Splitting the difference, I'll say about 7 years for similar teams, at least if the Red Sox choose to follow those type of models. Since it ostensibly started for the Red Sox with the 2020 season, you're probably looking at around 2026 or 2027 if someone wants to think of it realistically.
Personally, I'm leaning more toward 2027 because the choice was made not to trade off wasting assets for prospects in both 2022 and 2023, which meant that you didn't add more kicks at the prospect can, and will probably set them a year or so toward the longer side of the equation.
Which sucks because the Sox don't HAVE to be in that kind of position, but it's where they've chosen to be, so looking at what they're doing, that's about the time frame one should expect.
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I don't think you can just put a number on "how long does a rebuild take" because the Sox have been trying to rebuild the farm system while remaining competitive at the major league level, hence the lack of trading major league pieces at the deadlines. If that goes well it's great, but it's also possible to never really get there for either one.
Thank you for the thoughtful response. I appreciate the context/examples
It's a nice overview, but it's not exactly predictive.
It might be a better approach to look at the Sox's prospects and see when they're reasonably due to come up and/or will hit their peak trade value for parts.
Below the years are just guesses on at least a mid-season call up, as opposed to a September cup of coffee, mostly aligning with SoxProspects - who have a pretty good track record:
2024: Rafaela, Yorke, Abreu, Fitts, Slaten, Mata, Guerrero.
2025: Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Wikelman, Meidroth, Hickey, Jordan.
2026: Perlaes, Paulino, Romero, Monegro
2027: Bleis?, Cespedes, Zanetello
2028:
2029: Bello, Casas are FAs
Some will come earlier, some will come later. Some will be good, some will be awful, etc. etc.
So I don't look at this and think - "They're going to be competitive in 2027, soonest." I mean, maybe if all goes wrong. But OTOH, they could always take a college pitching arm this draft and end up with another pitcher knocking on the door in 2025/26.
As a PS let me add that I'm not saying there's any guarantee Mayer, Anthony, Teal, and Yorke come up and set the world on fire. But if one or two of them do, the Sox may well make some in-season trades to push for that year. Their maximum saturation point for identifiable key players looks to be 26-28, assuming no extensions, etc. They should have a relatively seasoned Mayer, Anthony, Teel, etc. in the majors along with Bello and Casas.
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will want to stay here or ... Xander gave the hometown discount once and likely would've again if they would've offered him similar to the Story deal instead of the insulting adding on one more year. Lester by all means indicated that he always wanted to re-up here, but once again they completely lowballed him in ST and it wasn't looked at kindly in the clubhouse. I think we can agree that this ownership group is arrogant in their assumption that its a premium place to come. They seem to forget that there are some reasons players may not look at it as the destination that they maybe once did. In addition, the weather can suck, the media scrutiny can be relentless, the tax rates in MA are high, etc.... They need a bit of a reality check.
Thank you. The dates noted atleast put me in a feeing, that the rebuild pendulum has started coming back.
It’s a challenge to get excited overly exited about this season but let’s feel good about the pipeline and a bit of luck would go a long ways the next few years.
good point with the draft. (Pitching arm)
Lester was an absolute mess up for FSG. 100%
Buy are we really arguing for Xander to be here in his late 30s? It’s hilarious to me that the Sox insulted him so much that he was forced to accept a godfather deal from the Padres. Who probably just lost Soto because they overbought.
It always seems to come back to FSG being cheap. Lackey, Crawford, AGon, Price, Sale extension, Yoshida, Panda…. They made lots of high priced market moves that people just ignore. Read through those examples and tell me what was worth the $$$.
I 100% agree that the 11 yr deal he got was insane. But adding 3 more years to the 3 he had left on his opt out well before he had the chance to opt out may have gotten it done, he loved it here. Yes he likely would've eventually had to move off of SS. But he could've played some 3B, LF (prob no Yoshida deal) DH in the later years. And he was someone who fans of the 2013-2022 teams could root for. Not everyone is as diehard as many on here. I hear from plenty of casual fans who say something to the effect of "I don't even know who any of these players are anymore" over the last few years.
Thanks for teaching me something. I now realize my wife's a natural Motte and Bailey arguer and ties me in knots.
I loved Xander but he took one discount with the ability to opt out. He was going to absolutely opt out for a better contract. I also believe he was going to be offered and would have accepted a reasonable offer by the Sox. SD pulled a Yoshida and made him an offer he could refuse.
Players today are business savvy… they understand the process and the dynamics involved in negotiations.
I probably first came across the term here.
For domestic tranquility you can point out to your wife that the easy way not to do that is simply to say, "Hmm. That's true. But on reflection, I guess my greater point is really Blah-blah-blah. So what do you think of that?"
I chose "Top 11" because Imanaga appeared on some Top 10 lists and Kershaw on others.
The fan base and media whined about ERod being "soft" his entire tenure here. Would you want to return?
The majority of their draft/signs and IFA signings were pitchers under Bloom. Some of the relievers have moved quickly through the system. Luis Guerrero will probably be a mid season call-up and there’s a non-zero chance that Christopher Troye makes Boston’s roster at some point next year. They definitely do need better instruction on the pitching end, though (and, please, people, spare me the “It’s all genetics!!!”, if you couldn’t learn skills IMG Academy wouldn’t exist, and neither would Driveline).
Also, as a note, SoxProspects, excellent as they are, hasn’t updated Monegro’s profile since he was signed. Watch video of that curveball of his, it’s an ace-level pitch. Of all the Ps in their system, he’s the one I think has the potential to be a front of the rotation starter.
Yes, about 60% of Bloom's draft picks during his tenure were pitchers. But he only dedicated ~15% of their bonus pool cap to that 60% because the vast majority of those draft picks were college senior middle relievers they signed to like $10k bonuses.
I asked this same question a couple of weeks ago in one of these threads. It might be worth it's own thread, with some history to back things up.
Anyway, 8 years certainly is long time.
It's also worth considering in the modern era (say, since Yaz), the Sox have never gone 6-8 at or near the basement. Never.
The Rangers went from 60 wins to WS champs in 2 years, and - gasp - many of their core players came through FA.
Fan base and media everywhere are always whining about stuff. Sounds like you're trying to single out Boston as a bad place to play because of how they treat their players.
I thought this same thing when the 8 year timeframe was mentioned.
I started following the Sox in the early 80s. There’s never been a stretch of 8 years as fallow as this would be, should we not make the playoffs again until 2027. And that’s with 6 AL teams making the playoffs when it used to be as few as 2.
I’m certainly not going to get preemptively angry at something that hasn’t occurred. At the same time, I’m baffled at the seeming ambivalence by some folks to that possibility.
The Sox dont’t *have* to manage the team that way. There’s no handbook that dictates we don’t field a playoff-competitive team while we wait for 3 guys to make their way through the minors.
The piece from Over the Monster I linked above takes Breslow to task for the statement about internal development being "the fastest path to a World Series team". It's a dubious claim if not a plainly false one.
We were led to believe this team would add two starting pitchers. By my count, they have added one, and subtracted one. Is that correct?
For all of the "the offseason isn't over yet" people - what are the moves you are expecting the Sox to make to help pitching? It seems like the Venn diagram of "Snell/Montgomery are too expensive and don't fit the timeframe" and "the offseason isn't over yet" people are a nearly perfect circle, so I am legitimately curious what the expectation is.
So the answer is: they have not added any starting pitching (aside from the incremental innings Giolito may possibly provide vs Sale).
I disagree with that fully. I think plenty of us would still like to see a Montgomery signing. Ryu could be impactful too though that's very health-dependent. Sounds like asks for trades are too high to be worthwhile currently though.
Correct, but you could have just looked up the 40 man roster to answer that for yourself, so why post just to whine about it?
Because asking the board is quicker than parsing the transactions list or looking up the 40 man roster, and sometimes those sources are not updated in real time. It was an honest question.
Not sure I agree about incremental innings. I thing Giolito is a solid bet to pitch 40-60 more innings. Giolito is an innings horse.
Sale if he can stay healthy is a decent bet to have more quality.
This guy, this guy gets it.
That's not what this board is here for. We discuss things. Whatever your intention, it came across as a sarcastic commentary on what the Sox are or aren't doing. Classic hit and run.
If you want to add your commentary, be prepared to be challenged to back up whatever point you're making, and making that point clear. If it's not obvious that there's been a major effort lately to get back to that, I don't know what to tell you. Almost everyone else seems to have gotten the memo.
I was actually complimenting the board. It is a more reliable source of information than official transactions and rosters because as I noted, oftentimes deals are known before they become official.
As to the point about backing up my argument - I wasn’t making an argument. Just stating / trying to understand facts.
If you want me to make an argument, it would be that the fan base was sold a bill of goods about improving the team for 2024. That the Sox were 2 SP and a RHB away from at least competing for a playoff spot, and yet no moves have been made to get them closer. But this “argument” is obvious to everyone here, not contested, and has been made a ton. So I did not see a point in adding it to my post.
Again, my post was simply intended to confirm facts, and I would argue that such information should actually be a function of this board, because it is often ahead of the curve.
Chris Sale threw 103 innings last season. James Paxton threw 96 innings.
Giolito has averaged 175 innings which certainly qualifies as a workhorse these days. But unless they bring back Paxton or sign another guy, he's not just replacing Sale.
Thanks for adding your thoughts. If you'd added that to the end of your post, then we could actually discuss and see if the facts back that up, and probably never agree, but that is what this board is determined to be, and if it slipped away from it for a while, we are making a concerted effort to reassert those standards into the basic consciousness.
We're not here to answer those kinds of questions, particularly for those who usually only show up with stuff like this. The default is adding some value to any conversation one joins. And you have done this same routine at least one other time, and I let it go.
The thing is, you are perfectly capable of doing it, I've seen a bunch of good stuff from you. This isn't meant as any kind of pile-on, and we are well aware that we didn't pay enough attention to the way things were going around here for a while, and that's on us. We're just reasserting things, as stated above, and want to make sure we clarify when we address stuff like this. PM me if you need to, but it's all good here on my end.
I can't say this clearly enough: that is not what this board is for. We are here to discuss things and share ideas. Go back and look at what you wrote above that I bolded. What it looks like to me is you being too lazy to do your own work, while others here are investing real time and effort in gaining knowledge and adding to what has turned into a pretty good debate. Let them work, I'll benefit. Do you see how that might rankle?
We're not here to answer those kinds of questions, particularly for those who usually only show up with stuff like this. The default is adding some value to any conversation one joins. And you have done this same routine at least one other time, and I let it go.
The thing is, you are perfectly capable of doing it, I've seen a bunch of good stuff from you. This isn't meant as any kind of pile-on, and we are well aware that we didn't pay enough attention to the way things were going around here for a while, and that's on us. We're just reasserting things, as stated above, and want to make sure we clarify when we address stuff like this. PM me if you need to, but it's all good here on my end.
It actually is contested. At least if I'm reading you correctly. Since Breslow has been on the job he has:
*Acquired a RHH 2B (sore need)
*Essentially flipped the LHH Verdugo for a RHH O'Neill.
*Acquired a frontline SP that should give them consistent innings, possibly excellent ones.
*Acquired a RP that should help stabilize the bullpen's middle innings.
*Acquired a RP that should help stabilize the bullpen's middle innings.
*Added to the upper minors pitching depth.
(He has also shipped out two of the more polarizing players in Sale and Verdugo, and has apparently done an internal pitching assessment in putting Houck back in bullpen/starter mix along with Whitlock and Winckowski.)
This is in absolutely no way "selling a bill of goods" or making no moves to get them closer.
Would I like to see them add more? Sure.
But come on.
As was pointed out:
Sale + Paxton: 198 IP
Giolito: 196 IP
They explicitly said they were looking to add 2 SP. They haven’t.
I doubt anything positive is going to come out of this exchange so it’s probably best we just agree to disagree.
They explicitly said they were looking to add 2 SP. They haven’t.
@tims4wins I know it has been stated many times here before, but I'm looking at my calendar right now, and it is not reading that it is Opening Day. It is true that they haven't added 2 SP. It is also true that it is January 19th.
Paxton was not on the roster, and you're ignoring the other actions that were taken. So probably not.
Definitely not a pile on, but I can't tell you how many times I refer to the Sox 40 man roster as well as that of other teams before posting. I find them to be mostly accurate except in the times when there might be a delay in adding a player because a corresponding move needs to be made. As most here can attest, that info hasn't made me a better poster, but it is a handy resource.
What confuses me about the pessimism about the FO and their moves so far is that they've made a lot of moves already this offseason. I would be shocked if they call it quits now.
None of the moves have been the big free agent splash that many were hoping for, but I think a lot of improvements have been made. Sale was offloaded for a guy who could lock down second base and churn out 2-4 WAR a year, a guy with bat-to-ball skills that are excellent. That could be a huge improvement on the Arroyo-Valdez-Hernandez poo poo platter of last year.
He also went out and got a starting pitcher in Giolito who's a workhorse (if someone who really needs Bailey's help to cut down on the homers), and he got several relievers, one of whom is major-league ready in Campbell, and two more in Slaten and Weissert who've got terrific stuff and who might flame out or be ready to contribute at the big league level as soon as next year. O'Neill should do a fine Duvall impression and has upside to be way better.
He needs to make a couple more moves to solidify the rotation and the maybe to add a bat, but he's got the cash and the prospect powder to do it still. He's got a glut of outfielders and a couple of blocked infielders between Valdez and Dalbec (obviously neither of whom will buy you a starting pitcher by themselves, but packaged with a guy like Duran and Mayer might get you closer). And there's still lots of young cost-controlled starting pitchers reportedly available for trade in addition to two big fish in Montgomery and Snell.
None of the moves have been the big free agent splash that many were hoping for, but I think a lot of improvements have been made. Sale was offloaded for a guy who could lock down second base and churn out 2-4 WAR a year, a guy with bat-to-ball skills that are excellent. That could be a huge improvement on the Arroyo-Valdez-Hernandez poo poo platter of last year.
He also went out and got a starting pitcher in Giolito who's a workhorse (if someone who really needs Bailey's help to cut down on the homers), and he got several relievers, one of whom is major-league ready in Campbell, and two more in Slaten and Weissert who've got terrific stuff and who might flame out or be ready to contribute at the big league level as soon as next year. O'Neill should do a fine Duvall impression and has upside to be way better.
He needs to make a couple more moves to solidify the rotation and the maybe to add a bat, but he's got the cash and the prospect powder to do it still. He's got a glut of outfielders and a couple of blocked infielders between Valdez and Dalbec (obviously neither of whom will buy you a starting pitcher by themselves, but packaged with a guy like Duran and Mayer might get you closer). And there's still lots of young cost-controlled starting pitchers reportedly available for trade in addition to two big fish in Montgomery and Snell.
FWIW, I think you might be getting a bit hung up on the math here. I think the point that you're making is that they lost two and added one so Breslow actually subtracted a pitcher thus far. But I think when you look at this, there was always going to be some sort of subtraction or shift of players from whatever was currently on the roster to bring in two additional arms. Bringing in two SP is may be a more accurate description than adding two SP.
But the rumors about the Red Sox plans, or lack thereof, for further starting pitching additions have been consistently discouraging for a while, and Breslow's latest statement didn't help in that regard. Maybe they'll pull the rabbit out of the hat yet, there's still plenty of time left.
Fair, but even if you count Paxton as not on the roster, they shipped out sale and added Giolito. The "adding 2 SP" comments were made when Sale was still on the team.
And even if you want to say that they had no plans for Sale, they still have only signed 1 SP. I 100% thought they were going to sign 1 SP and trade for another, or possibly sign 2.
What sucks is that the Red Sox have become borderline irrelevant to me. Sure, I post about them on SoSH to kill time during my work day. But I barely watch them any more. Losses don't hurt. Losing seasons don't hurt. I'm indifferent. I miss caring about them.
Just as a brief interjection here as someone that thinks the team should (if they don't sign Montgomery or Snell) sell and sell hard and sell early...
I'm incredibly bullish on the Breslow front office, actually. It just has nothing to do with 2024.
Getting the best pitching prospect in your system (my opinion, Sox Prospects has him 3rd) for one year of Verdugo was outstanding. Getting Vaughn Grissom for 15 starts of Chris Sale is borderline sorcery (though, to be fair, those 15 starts could / should be a hell of a lot more impactful for Atlanta since that could be the difference between home field and a bye vs Philly this year whereas in Boston it was more the idea of 78 wins vs 76 wins or some such). I'm also of the belief that he's going to continue to sell one year assets.
He's from the Theo tree, and that is something I really want the Sox to go back to (but I was - and am - also a big Cherington fan, so...). I also liked what he said in the interview about when to hold the team accountable if they were still not looking to trade "future wins for current wins" and I believe he said 2 years. I personally think of it as closer to 3, but it's a) certainly a lot more rationale than what they've been doing the past several seasons and b) honest - without going so far as to say "the 2024 and 2025 teams are going to suck", which obviously he can't say and no GM ever should, but it's nicely kind of saying it.
Huge fan of what Breslow has done this far. I'll be an even bigger fan if (in my opinion when) he trades Jansen before the season starts, and then (hopefully) gets rid of anyone on a one year deal that isn't going to be given a QO in June or July.