Let's Lay Off That Throttle

SouthernBoSox

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Just as a brief interjection here as someone that thinks the team should (if they don't sign Montgomery or Snell) sell and sell hard and sell early...

I'm incredibly bullish on the Breslow front office, actually. It just has nothing to do with 2024.

Getting the best pitching prospect in your system (my opinion, Sox Prospects has him 3rd) for one year of Verdugo was outstanding. Getting Vaughn Grissom for 15 starts of Chris Sale is borderline sorcery (though, to be fair, those 15 starts could / should be a hell of a lot more impactful for Atlanta since that could be the difference between home field and a bye vs Philly this year whereas in Boston it was more the idea of 78 wins vs 76 wins or some such). I'm also of the belief that he's going to continue to sell one year assets.

He's from the Theo tree, and that is something I really want the Sox to go back to (but I was - and am - also a big Cherington fan, so...). I also liked what he said in the interview about when to hold the team accountable if they were still not looking to trade "future wins for current wins" and I believe he said 2 years. I personally think of it as closer to 3, but it's a) certainly a lot more rationale than what they've been doing the past several seasons and b) honest - without going so far as to say "the 2024 and 2025 teams are going to suck", but it's nicely kind of saying it.

Huge fan of what Breslow has done this far. I'll be an even bigger fan if (in my opinion when) he trades Jansen before the season starts, and then (hopefully) gets rid of anyone on a one year deal that isn't going to be given a QO in June or July.
Turning 1 year a piece of Sale, Verdugo, Urias into major league players: 6 years of Grissom, 5 of Campbell, 5 of Weissert plus a real AAA prospect in Fitts and high upside arm in Judice was fantastic baseball business.

They need to keep adding starters though.
 

YTF

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Fair, but even if you count Paxton as not on the roster, they shipped out sale and added Giolito. The "adding 2 SP" comments were made when Sale was still on the team.

And even if you want to say that they had no plans for Sale, they still have only signed 1 SP. I 100% thought they were going to sign 1 SP and trade for another, or possibly sign 2.

What sucks is that the Red Sox have become borderline irrelevant to me. Sure, I post about them on SoSH to kill time during my work day. But I barely watch them any more. Losses don't hurt. Losing seasons don't hurt. I'm indifferent. I miss caring about them.
Yes, that's where we're at. To date the team has added/brought in one starter in Giolito. The total of projected starters is likely to be five, as of now one of the five projected is new.
 

Sprowl

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The piece from Over the Monster I linked above takes Breslow to task for the statement about internal development being "the fastest path to a World Series team". It's a dubious claim if not a plainly false one.
But it may legitimately be the fastest path open to the Boston Red Sox circa 2024, who will be outspent by LAD, NYY, and NYM, and find themselves in the same <$LTT bracket as 5-6 other teams. Getting lucky with the development of Mayer, Anthony and Teel seems like a better bet (if not an odds-on bet) than trying to buy their way to a playoff roster in 2024.

Dombrowski bought his way to a starting pitcher ace (Price, for cash) and a closer (Kimbrel, for four prospects), but only because he already had a young core of emerging stars in Betts and Bogaerts with Benintendi, Bradley, Vazquez, and Rodriguez showing great potential.

Breslow and ownership may want to see that great potential in M, A and T before committing to luxury spending for complementary free agents. By way of comparison, the Celtics are now committed to luxury spending for complementary players precisely because Tatum and Brown have now reached the potential they promised in their early twenties.
 

BigSoxFan

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But it may legitimately be the fastest path open to the Boston Red Sox circa 2024, who will be outspent by LAD, NYY, and NYM, and find themselves in the same <$LTT bracket as 5-6 other teams. Getting lucky with the development of Mayer, Anthony and Teel seems like a better bet (if not an odds-on bet) than trying to buy their way to a playoff roster in 2024.

Dombrowski bought his way to a starting pitcher ace (Price, for cash) and a closer (Kimbrel, for four prospects), but only because he already had a young core of emerging stars in Betts and Bogaerts with Benintendi, Bradley, Vazquez, and Rodriguez showing great potential.

Breslow and ownership may want to see that great potential in M, A and T before committing to luxury spending for complementary free agents. By way of comparison, the Celtics are now committed to luxury spending for complementary players precisely because Tatum and Brown have now reached the potential they promised in their early twenties.
The Celtics signed Al Horford to a $113M deal a few days after Jaylen Brown was drafted and a year before Jayson Tatum was drafted. They similarly signed Gordon Hayward for $128M a couple weeks after Tatum was drafted, well before they knew what they had in both Jay’s.

I don’t think it’s accurate to say that they waited for Jaylen and Jayson to become what they are now before they started luxury spending. They were proactive in adding talent well before either reached All Star status. With Porzingis and Holiday, they are clearly willing to pay some luxury tax to really go after a title but the spending started several years prior.

That is what I think some here are hoping for and why some are advocating for a Montgomery signing. Would Montgomery be capable of being the Red Sox Horford? Obviously, this is NBA vs. MLB so you can never draw a perfect comparison but I think the same concept can apply.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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As we get closer to pitchers and catchers, the question that I find intriguing is the extent to which ownership will be comfortable being several million below the first CBT level. We have had a lot of discussion about whether ownership is prepared to over spend the lowest number, but with each day the possibility of significantly underspending seems to be one the table. We don't know exactly how much under they are right now. @Jack Rabbit Slim did some excellent work in the CBT thread -- highly recommend -- showing that even the major outlets can't agree. But I trust his number of about $40 million.

It has been my assumption that the Red Sox simply cannot weather spending much under the CBT. My thought has been that if fans have to watch the Yankees kick us around while we're spending $110 million less than they are, with room under the lowest tier, it's going to be all out mutiny in Boston. So I have not really entertained the possibility they will be much under $227m this year. That has led to two conflicting thoughts: (1) happiness that we still have at least $40 million to find a pitcher and right hander, or (2) fear that they will spend just to spend to avoid disastrous PR.

But I'm starting to wonder if anyone even cares like we do. Maybe spending $25 million under the first tier won't be a big issue, because most people don't even know what the cap is. They might have a general sense that the Sox are getting outspent, but my idea -- that there is real pressure for the Sox to find $40 million worth of players in the next 2 months -- may just be incorrect. It may be a function of the fact that we know and care about stuff that others don't follow as closely.
 

BigSoxFan

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As we get closer to pitchers and catchers, the question that I find intriguing is the extent to which ownership will be comfortable being several million below the first CBT level. We have had a lot of discussion about whether ownership is prepared to over spend the lowest number, but with each day the possibility of significantly underspending seems to be one the table. We don't know exactly how much under they are right now. @Jack Rabbit Slim did some excellent work in the CBT thread -- highly recommend -- showing that even the major outlets can't agree. But I trust his number of about $40 million.

It has been my assumption that the Red Sox simply cannot weather spending much under the CBT. My thought has been that if fans have to watch the Yankees kick us around while we're spending $110 million less than they are, with room under the lowest tier, it's going to be all out mutiny in Boston. So I have not really entertained the possibility they will be much under $227m this year. That has led to two conflicting thoughts: (1) happiness that we still have at least $40 million to find a pitcher and right hander, or (2) fear that they will spend just to spend to avoid disastrous PR.

But I'm starting to wonder if anyone even cares like we do. Maybe spending $25 million under the first tier won't be a big issue, because most people don't even know what the cap is. They might have a general sense that the Sox are getting outspent, but my idea -- that there is real pressure for the Sox to find $40 million worth of players in the next 2 months -- may just be incorrect. It may be a function of the fact that we know and care about stuff that others don't follow as closely.
Yeah, I think this board clearly follows the Sox much closer than the average fan. Most fans probably don’t even know what the CBT is, let alone where we currently are with respect to it. If the media tries to make it a story, a definite possibility, maybe a few more will be aware/care but I think most will just be focused on the names brought in and how the team ultimately does.
 

Sin Duda

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Yeah, I think this board clearly follows the Sox much closer than the average fan. Most fans probably don’t even know what the CBT is, let alone where we currently are with respect to it. If the media tries to make it a story, a definite possibility, maybe a few more will be aware/care but I think most will just be focused on the names brought in and how the team ultimately does.
And maybe part of that $40MM is spent on long-term buyouts of arb years for Casas and/or Bello.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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They need to keep adding starters though.
Sure thing. But he needs to have the players to trade for them, and at this point (outside of KAT), I don't think he does - at least not those already at the MLB level.

Which is why I really hope he's looking at trading a fully paid for Jansen and Martin, just needs to see if Clase is truly on the market first to get teams to bite, would be my guess. But make that kind of deal where you make those two roughly as valuable as Alex Verdugo (by paying their full salary) and hopefully get two more versions of Dickie Fitts.

As we get closer to pitchers and catchers, the question that I find intriguing is the extent to which ownership will be comfortable being several million below the first CBT level. We have had a lot of discussion about whether ownership is prepared to over spend the lowest number, but with each day the possibility of significantly underspending seems to be one the table. We don't know exactly how much under they are right now. @Jack Rabbit Slim did some excellent work in the CBT thread -- highly recommend -- showing that even the major outlets can't agree. But I trust his number of about $40 million.

It has been my assumption that the Red Sox simply cannot weather spending much under the CBT. My thought has been that if fans have to watch the Yankees kick us around while we're spending $110 million less than they are, with room under the lowest tier, it's going to be all out mutiny in Boston. So I have not really entertained the possibility they will be much under $227m this year. That has led to two conflicting thoughts: (1) happiness that we still have at least $40 million to find a pitcher and right hander, or (2) fear that they will spend just to spend to avoid disastrous PR.

But I'm starting to wonder if anyone even cares like we do. Maybe spending $25 million under the first tier won't be a big issue, because most people don't even know what the cap is. They might have a general sense that the Sox are getting outspent, but my idea -- that there is real pressure for the Sox to find $40 million worth of players in the next 2 months -- may just be incorrect. It may be a function of the fact that we know and care about stuff that others don't follow as closely.
Spending right up to the cap, or $LTT(.97) which is what I use really doesn't matter if the players aren't good enough to make up the difference. Case in point, adding Adam Duvall (call it $10m), HJ Ryu (call it $12m) and I don't know, David Robertson ($10m) gets them right up to around $235m. Those additions aren't going to matter much in the scheme of wins and losses. Plus, the Red Sox are so low in interest in Boston right now that I doubt that many people even know how close they are. But adding those guys will do incredibly little toward making the team a playoff contender for those and those that do follow will realize that and to those whom don't follow all that closely, aren't going to make anyone tune in for one more second of baseball than they otherwise would have.

I mean, Bloom spent right up to the tax the (or close to it) for terrible product and it's not like anyone cared. If they get close to it by adding Snell/Montgomery even Cody Bellinger (not that he's a need, but you get my point) the average fan might be a bit more interested. But having FSG waste their money on one year adds or not spend it isn't going to change the narrative in the media (for whatever that matters), isn't going to change the likelihood of the team making the playoffs or not, and isn't going to garner any interest or good will from casual fans.
 

SouthernBoSox

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People have every right to get pissed. There are reasonable pathways to success here and they are choosing to not even try.

It’s time to stop defending them.
 

Patriot_Reign

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Couple weeks ago Tony Mazz theorized that this steady decrease in spending could likely being the Henry group setting up for the sale of the team. Apparently this is a common practice for owners when they're looking to sell. Spend 3-4 years cutting down $$s as much as possible which makes them look appealing to potential buyers. Gives the new owners less debt to inherit and also a clean slate to build from.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Wow, I wonder how bad those sources were for Cotillo, McAdam, Speier, McCaffrey and others to get it so wrong. I mean, to be that far off base and just spouting whatever they heard from agents…

Oh. Wait.

(I’m actually heartened by the fact that they came out and said it. Like Breslow talking about 2ish years to actually focus on a rebuild. The way it was run - by whoever chose that path - the last two years has been exasperating.)
 

Beomoose

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People have every right to get pissed. There are reasonable pathways to success here and they are choosing to not even try.

It’s time to stop defending them.
I think it's perfectly legit to defend the team if you agree with this direction, what needs to stop is people pretending this isn't happening. There's no 4D chess move here to outfox Scott Boras, Snell's not walking through that door unless he really, really wants to come here more than he wants to get paid.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I think it's perfectly legit to defend the team if you agree with this direction, what needs to stop is people pretending this isn't happening. There's no 4D chess move here to outfox Scott Boras, Snell's not walking through that door unless he really, really wants to come here more than he wants to get paid.
Fair enough. But it….. listen this sucks. The fact they aren’t even going to spend close to the cap with short term players sucks.

I don’t know what to tell people anymore: it’s different now.
 

rodderick

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Guys, any money they spend on wins for 2024 will (god only knows how) take wins away from the future. By actually saving money, we're already starting the 2027 season in the blue in the win column. You just don't get it.
 

YTF

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If this is the direction you choose then you either...
A) Announce it from day one, take the initial PR hit and then show your intent by making the type of acquisitions that Breslow has made so far and continue to do so.
B) Be vague or misleading in your answers, delay the PR hit and in doing so be forced to relive it over and over.

If the trust of the fans matters at all then ownership needs to rethink their relationship with them.
 

JCizzle

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So they traded Mookie to ultimately just pocket the money they should’ve spent on him rather than reinvesting it in the team once they reset the tax. Awesome. Now even getting to - let alone exceeding - the threshold is a bridge too far.
 

Quatchie

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How anyone can watch this today and defend the ownership for their current direction is outrageous. Read between the lines, Bloom failed at the job.
 

Patriot_Reign

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B) Be vague or misleading in your answers, delay the PR hit and in doing so be forced to relive it over and over.
This is on point.

"It's going to be awesome"
"We're going full throttle"

I guess the GMs are helpless and have to sell interest to fans as best they can but this pattern of saying one thing then delivering another repeatedly where it causes backlash over and over is perplexing.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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And it’s on a Friday after 5:00 pm.

This ownership, man.

Edit: but you know what else went up? Ticket prices. Just an awesome offseason.
 

NickEsasky

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And they would have gotten away with it if it wasn’t for that pesky Chris Cotillo.
 

DeadlySplitter

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On top of everything else, you are not making a very exciting pitch for Cora to stay after next season.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Couple weeks ago Tony Mazz theorized that this steady decrease in spending could likely being the Henry group setting up for the sale of the team. Apparently this is a common practice for owners when they're looking to sell. Spend 3-4 years cutting down $$s as much as possible which makes them look appealing to potential buyers. Gives the new owners less debt to inherit and also a clean slate to build from.
I’m not as familiar with MLB franchise sales but this is how a lot of NBA team sales go down for sure.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I'm going to be disappointed if this is all about the Vegas NBA team. Less disappointed but still a bit so if it's for a sale.
 

NickEsasky

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I’m not as familiar with MLB franchise sales but this is how a lot of NBA team sales go down for sure.
Take this with a boulder of salt but a friend is high up in sales at FSG and says “they’ll have to pry the team from their cold, dead hands.” I wouldn’t count on them selling any time soon.
 

Beomoose

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I'm going to be disappointed if this is all about the Vegas NBA team. Less disappointed but still a bit so if it's for a sale.
FSG doesn't need to cheap out on the Sox to make a play for LV, they can sell minority stakes in individual teams to raise cash faster and in more volume if they need it.
 

CR67dream

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A lot of people here owe him (and others) apologies. Seems many here got it wrong...
Apologies for what? Being wrong is part of debating. There are no prizes. That's not the object of the game here. Victory laps should be brief or not at all all.

I'm personally pissed off about the whole debacle with the full throttle expectations, but glad to finally get some confirmation of what's going on. I'm not even sure that the approach is the wrong one, but I don't like being toyed with more than anyone. So yeah, it appears I thought they would dig deeper than a lot of folks, and was wrong about that.Oh well. I've learned more being wrong than I ever have being right. But fuck, I said I'd be pissed if I was, and I am. No apologies for my approach.

Sam Kennedy makes me long for the days of Larry Lucchino.
I said similar to this last week and agree with it more than ever. That dude always wanted to win, even when he was at his oiliest.
 

NickEsasky

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Not coincidentally, season ticket renewal deadline was 3 days ago.
Yep. Texting with my neighbor who just had to re-up (raised prices this year too) and he just called them crooks.