Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
Not at all I actually like it better this way coming off last nights game. Keeps the Pels engaged and you have a tired 39-yr old on the floor defending on New Years Freakin Eve!
My drunk runner got me -7.5 in CT and i was able to get same on two of my sites that don't have silly overnight limits. Number is now up to -9 most everywhere this morning.
Happy New Year! Here is my full preflop slate for the day since it's a holiday will tons of action. Most numbers long gone but good info for live plays. I'll include unit size for context.
NBA
Houston -7.5 (3u) *I have 2u at -7.5 and 1u at -8.5
U109.5 Detroit TT (1.25u)
U223.5 NY/Minn (.75u)
U113.5 1H NY/Minn (.75u)
CFB
Michigan ML -125 (1u)
Oregon -16.5 (1u)
Iowa +7 (1u)
NHL (Winter Classic)
U6 -120 (1u)
* Because i'm sure you're curious. In the history of the 14 Winter Classic (outdoor NHL for those who don't know) games only 2 have had more than 6 goals scored for a 2-9-3 record to the Under 6 number. Added bonus is we have the Kraken playing who are one of the lower scoring teams in the league.
NBA
Houston -7.5 (3u) *I have 2u at -7.5 and 1u at -8.5
U109.5 Detroit TT (1.25u)
U223.5 NY/Minn (.75u)
U113.5 1H NY/Minn (.75u)
CFB
Michigan ML -125 (1u)
Oregon -16.5 (1u)
Iowa +7 (1u)
NHL (Winter Classic)
U6 -120 (1u)
* Because i'm sure you're curious. In the history of the 14 Winter Classic (outdoor NHL for those who don't know) games only 2 have had more than 6 goals scored for a 2-9-3 record to the Under 6 number. Added bonus is we have the Kraken playing who are one of the lower scoring teams in the league.
At least it was honor and not memory....so I've got that going for me.
Pacers/Bucks total is up to 261. Insanity.
Looking for Charlotte to battle hard tonight in Denver, a win would be glorious, ahead of tomorrows game in Sacramento. One of the toughest spots for a traveling team is the game immediately following playing in the Denver air and being second leg of a B2B is suboptimal. It will be priced in but often times not enough plus their could be other markets within the game that show value. Anyway, it's a scoreboard to watch tonight as it could be intriguing.
Edit: While I was writing this the Rockets lead went from 7 to 19. LFG!!!
Edit: While I was writing this the Rockets lead went from 7 to 19. LFG!!!
Charlotte currently +15.5 tomorrow night in Sacramento (and currently +10.5 live line in Denver)
See this is what it's supposed to open but we've seen so many off openers lately I was hopeful. Rockets game perfect example 7 to 9.5 when those numbers below 9 really shouldn't have been available for more than a hot second.
View: https://youtu.be/h4UqMyldS7Q?si=ew1bsfQ-djbrnjuZ
Dallas got humiliated in Utah tonight by 37 which sets them up good to host Portland on Wednesday. The Blazers began their long road trip with a 20-pt loss which is not the way you want to begin a long trip. I spoken in the past about a team being a play-on in that first game of a trip as they are motivated and focused to get a win under their belts before the hotel hopping begins.....so when you lose by 20 in your first one that is a red flag to me. Unfortunately this is the type of matchup that will have you laying double digits, probably -10 or -11, which I'm not crazy about doing but some spots call for it. All you FanDuel guys check for the overnights on this tomorrow.
Did you consider playing LAC vs Miami last night on this same basis? Not a B2B of course but with the holiday baked in there I was eyeing it last night.
Edit: and of course Utah elevation is not quite Denver levels but still close.
I didn't have confirmation of Kawhi playing until late and didn't want to lay -7.5 only to have it repriced at -6 which crossed the key number of 7. Was on the fence late bc I'm obv a huge fan of this particular Clipper team but was crushing the day, had ton of live stuff going on too, and didn't want to get involved with marginal stuff.
I started playing Clippers when Heat came out hot shooting. Ended up with Clippers +3.5 and then Clippers -3.5 (after they tied it in 2nd). This is why it's so helpful when you flush out your thinking, allows us to apply it live!
Thanks for yesterday! Did well on Knicks/TW 1H, game unders, Winter Classic under, Rockets, and small wager on Rockets margin 21+. Fun day for watching games I definitely would not tune into otherwise.
Yes agreed. That's why it's important to go into a game watch with a predetermined opinion on a side or total. It is much easier to get a read if you have an engaged opinion rather than watching just to watch. I'll even force an opinion on each game I have on my live feeds to improve my engagement and therefore, read.
Love to hear it! I did play the Rockets double result at -200 and the Over 21 at +450 late as I don't get those on my sites until later in the day most times. And yes, I actually did have Ice Cube on my CarPlay driving up 95 last night....and played it a second time too! Not even an Ice Cube fan but it was a smooth beat and spoke perfectly of the day.
Played U232.5 this morning so I don't dislike this. Since the Kings gave up 131 and 144 to Wizards and Celtics they have held opp to 105, 110, 130, 110 and 92 while nearly playing to 5-0 Unders. There seems to be a clear shift in their approach but how long is that sustainable with this group? Should be enough against a team lacking firepower right now like the Hornets and got in ahead of the Rozier news.
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Given my advanced age (57) "hookers and blow" vices are no long a reasonable options for me. This thread seems to include a nice group of gambling degenerates I'd like to join. Would @HomeRunBaker or another help me out with the lexicon above? Specifically, what do the underlined/bolded mean?
Age is no excuse. Quitter.
-7.5 is Houston having to win by 8 pts or more. The Pistons were given a 7.5 pt handicap at the time of my wager.
3u is 3 "units", for context I included my wager size w 1u being standard size, .5u being half of a standard wager, 3u would then be 3 times my standard sizing. This covers the 1.25 and .75 too.
TT is Team Total which is the number of total points that particular team is listed at for you to wager if they will score more of less.
The U before the number represents Under....meaning I played the game to finish with fewer than that number of points. So TT in front of the U would mean I played that team to have fewer total points than the number listed.
Hope that helps.
Could use some hedging strategy thoughts:
DK and other sites give these risk free bets and rather than blow them on low probability bets like I usually do, I decided to do a bunch of combo futures bets. We’re talking $5-10 free bets.
Due to a methodical approach, I now have combos with Michigan or Washington with 6 NFL teams (SF, DAL, PHL, BAL, MIA, KC), and the Celtics. Rationale is that I can’t see anyone in the NFL outside of that group winning the SB. Assuming that doesn’t happen, I’d be left being able to hedge against Celtics not winning when the time comes.
My Washington combos are higher value than the Michigan ones ($1,600 to $3,600 for UW and $500 to $1,600 for UM).
Thus, should I just hedge Mich ML despite the fact that they’ll be favorites or, maybe, combine that with NBA hedge and do Mich + 4-5 non Celtics teams?
Curious how some here might approach this. Should come out ahead regardless but wanted to see if there’s some broader strategy I’m missing.
DK and other sites give these risk free bets and rather than blow them on low probability bets like I usually do, I decided to do a bunch of combo futures bets. We’re talking $5-10 free bets.
Due to a methodical approach, I now have combos with Michigan or Washington with 6 NFL teams (SF, DAL, PHL, BAL, MIA, KC), and the Celtics. Rationale is that I can’t see anyone in the NFL outside of that group winning the SB. Assuming that doesn’t happen, I’d be left being able to hedge against Celtics not winning when the time comes.
My Washington combos are higher value than the Michigan ones ($1,600 to $3,600 for UW and $500 to $1,600 for UM).
Thus, should I just hedge Mich ML despite the fact that they’ll be favorites or, maybe, combine that with NBA hedge and do Mich + 4-5 non Celtics teams?
Curious how some here might approach this. Should come out ahead regardless but wanted to see if there’s some broader strategy I’m missing.
Not at this time as I'd like to get down more. It is set by my ability to get down consistent action with the key word being consistent. It's similar to my poker hours where I play 2/5NL only bc 5/10 runs maybe 20% of the time and a random private game for larger. To me the consistency is what is most important and even still a game like Houston last night is supposed to be a smash that I have more than 2x of what I do on the Knicks total, you know what I mean? I could have added to my Hard Rock account and bet as much as I wanted at -7.5 but when those close at 9.5 the account is always going to be limited quickly. So I try and be consistent with what I know I can get down from week to week and month to month.
I have considered partnering accounts with people for awhile now but currently only playing my locals, a new Hard Rock Bet acct which who knows how long will last and I have a buddy in CT to get something on kiosks at a limit which he doesn't have to provide ID.
Seconding the thanks here. This was a very fun and very profitable day and your information (as well as the other regulars in here who are willing to share their insights as well) is so much appreciated.
Beginning early this year with the injury flip-flops. Rozier was supposed to be announced as Out (but listed as Doubtful) this morning and now is going to play which ramps up Charlottes offense. I'm sticking w my normal play on it but for those who recall last year, I know @Red Averages remembers, the leaks and reporting were all over the place to where it was complete guesswork even with good information. Let's hope this isn't beginning so soon as this season has been my best regular season to date....I'd hate to reel it in until the playoffs (although I cannot wait for the playoffs each year).
Not even sure if I mentioned it above but also played Chicago +10 tonight it goes shortly.
Not even sure if I mentioned it above but also played Chicago +10 tonight it goes shortly.
Bulls 3-17, 0-8 three
Sixers 13-17, 7-9 three
4Q Backdoor still open!! Sometimes you just laugh.
Sixers 13-17, 7-9 three
4Q Backdoor still open!! Sometimes you just laugh.
I think it brings up an important point. My NBA size is going to shrink from here until about a month left in the season. Only things I’ll be hitting aggressively are:
- 2nd half unders / team total unders of bad teams playing good teams that coasted in the first half. An example would be the Celtics vs Pistons. Pistons led at the half, Celtics actually expanded effort in the 2nd half and largely shut them down. Those will win more than they lose.
- If it’s anything like last year some of these pregame totals went berserk with the resting and general lack of focus on defense, unders really suffered. Better to leave it for in game once the pace changes. I have zero talent at picking overs.
- Focus shifts to NFL playoffs and capital preservation.
- 2nd half unders / team total unders of bad teams playing good teams that coasted in the first half. An example would be the Celtics vs Pistons. Pistons led at the half, Celtics actually expanded effort in the 2nd half and largely shut them down. Those will win more than they lose.
- If it’s anything like last year some of these pregame totals went berserk with the resting and general lack of focus on defense, unders really suffered. Better to leave it for in game once the pace changes. I have zero talent at picking overs.
- Focus shifts to NFL playoffs and capital preservation.
Played OKC live +2.5 after 1Q.
Porzingis kept us in the game when OKC was shutting everything else down. That really isn't sustainable for an entire game with Thunder sure to go on some runs. OKC moving free and easy with SGA getting wherever he wants while our sets struggle to result in anything easy.
Porzingis kept us in the game when OKC was shutting everything else down. That really isn't sustainable for an entire game with Thunder sure to go on some runs. OKC moving free and easy with SGA getting wherever he wants while our sets struggle to result in anything easy.
Rocco G always used to tell me if you think your team is going to lose, you should immediately bet it since your biases generally assume positive things for them naturally (doesn’t apply to all SoSHers).
Played 2H U120.5 Spurs/Grizz
2H is priced at games expected pace which isn't how the 1H played at all.
2H is priced at games expected pace which isn't how the 1H played at all.
39 pt w 2:30 left in 3Q.....finished w 61 thanks to 13 in the last :58
Still on pace but was looking like an easy cash.
Were you watching the Spurs/Grizz toilet bowl, or was that a box score find w/r/t pace vs live totals?
Watching multiple screens. That was way way harder than it should have been.
Good start in Hornets/Kings. This would cap off a very good night.
League Pass allows up to 3 devices on one account. When you have ESPN and NBATV I can get up to 5 games which really is the max I can do. Even if I added another account the law of diminishing returns would come into effect.
This post made me double down on OKC in the 2nd half. Mercy buckets and Praise to Rocco
Played a bunch before breakfast or even my coffee this morning. I'll catch up later and try to post details but on....
Brooklyn +6.5
Dallas -11 & -11.5
Milwaukee -3.5
Sac/Orl U232 & 231(played best)
Atlanta ML (played best)
Leaned u233 Clips/Suns but didn't play (yet). 12-game slate so may be hard to post live plays or looks but I'll try.
Edit: Forgot to include Atlanta.
Brooklyn +6.5
Dallas -11 & -11.5
Milwaukee -3.5
Sac/Orl U232 & 231(played best)
Atlanta ML (played best)
Leaned u233 Clips/Suns but didn't play (yet). 12-game slate so may be hard to post live plays or looks but I'll try.
Edit: Forgot to include Atlanta.
Appreciate all the insights here. Will any NFL stuff be posted here or worth a thread in Blinded By?
I think we should continue to use this thread for it. We missed out on a lot of quality picks due to a few opinions that this stuff should live in a dead forum. The service I subscribe to has gotten about 13 straight picks right on NFL, as @HomeRunBaker knows. Would have been great to have a captive group to share that with.
Wowza. What’s RAS at for the season? Did it end up helping you out with your Survivor picks?
I won $180k in survivor this year. The RAS picks definitely helped when I used them as part of the mosaic.
Wow. Sounds good to me to stay in this thread and thanks to you and others for sharing.