Offseason rumors
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Whether that decline was a function of fatigue, or pitchers adjusting to him, or both, is an open question.
We've reached the "Heyman throws a wet blanket on Sox fan dreams" season. Time to have our furnaces serviced and dig out the snow shovels.
I'm guessing it is both and we'll have to see how Yoshida adjusts moving forward. Based on his track record in Japan and his performance through July, I expect a very good 2nd season.
And I do think the fatigue impact was real: he played in a total of 120, 112, and 121 games in the prior three years. Last year he played in the WBC, where he was great, then had a fantastic first ~100 games. I don't think he should be the full-time DH, but rotating through that spot should be very helpful in maintaining his performance.
Just a reminder that Jon Heyman is essentially a Scott Boras employee and it is never more evident than this time of year. It's not always crystal clear how he is working for Boras (although quite often it is), but really he always is.
Well cynically…if it’s a zero sum game for FA dollars then leaking info that might limit markets for Ohtani and Yamamoto wouldn’t exactly anger the guy who represents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.
As much as I'd love to have him, I'd prefer that we are in just raise the price for the other teams. He's obviously a unicorn and if I could guarantee he'd stay healthy throughout the contract, I'd sign off. I'm just too concerned he becomes a Trout situation, only worse because we'd be counting on him to pitch every 5 days starting in 2025. Trout is hardly a guy I wouldn't want, even if only for 100-120 games per year, but if we're talking $50M per? No thanks.
IMO this "expressed affinity" for Texas (World Series winner) and the Red Sox (big market team coming off of 2 back to back losing seasons with $$$ to spend and an angry fan base) is purely an attempt to leverage the best possible offer from the Dodgers.
Basically a nothing-burger, it's a rehash of previous comments
View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10097270-shohei-ohtani-rumors-star-expressed-affinity-for-dodgers-red-sox-rangers
Did he say the Yankees were involved? It's not an offseason Heyman rumor-salad until he references the Yankees.
With Ohtani - I have major concerns about giving $45-50M+ for a guy who 1) might not be as effective a pitcher in 2025 as he has been in prior seasons, 2) might not be able to pitch as frequently in future seasons due to the TJS and wear and tear of being an everyday hitter/position player, and 3) might have a complicated and delayed rehab in 2024~2025 due to him playing as a hitter/position player during a period any other pitcher would be completely shutdown and rehabbing their TJS. There's also the question of how the injury/rehab will impact his performance as a hitter in 2024.
As exciting as he is, having a guy who fills two roles is a double-edged sword. A major injury to Ohtani would basically be equivalent to if the 2004 Red Sox losing both Curt Schilling and David Ortiz at the same time.
Yamamoto is 100% my guy - and I hope the west coast stuff is just noise or can be quashed for a few extra million.
As exciting as he is, having a guy who fills two roles is a double-edged sword. A major injury to Ohtani would basically be equivalent to if the 2004 Red Sox losing both Curt Schilling and David Ortiz at the same time.
Yamamoto is 100% my guy - and I hope the west coast stuff is just noise or can be quashed for a few extra million.
Yep...100% would rather have yamamoto and another smaller piece to the roster for the price of Ohtani.
There would definitely be significant risk but Ohtani would transform this lineup in a way that few others could while offering potential ace in 2025 and beyond. Still only 29 so should have several elite offensive years remaining, even if the arm can’t rebound.
I also really want Yamamoto so if that’s the path, I’d be fine with it. But you’re talking about $200M or more for a guy who is clearly quite talented but who hasn’t thrown a single MLB pitch. There is a lot of risk involved with him as well.
In the end, I’m signing up for a 2-time MVP every time the opportunity presents itself. He would bring an excitement we haven’t seen since prime Pedro.
But strong odds are that we end up with neither so it’ll be interesting to see where Breslow looks.
But isn't that the danger? Paying two-way unicorn prices and winding up with a slugger who can only DH would hinder the budget going forward. I mean, that's a lot of hypotheticals, but I suppose it's a possibility
A few people have pointed out here that if Ohtani ends up not really being able to pitch anymore, we shouldn't assume he'd then only be a DH. He absolutely has the speed and the athleticism to play OF.
Fair, but you've still spent far more than even the best outfielder (say, Judge) is going to be making. Still, it's all hypothetical
Let’s take the pitching out of it. His bat is probably worth $40M / year or so as it is. Definitely in unchartered territory but a guy like Soto will get a similar deal and might eventually be a DH himself. He’s going to hinder any team’s budget but the marketing aspect should allow for additional revenue streams that allows whichever ownership group to stretch a little bit.
Yeah it's still not necessarily money well spent (but it could be!) Anything could happen & it's all hypothetical as you say. But Ohtani was a better hitter than Judge this year, and I think could play a better OF for longer.
Seems highly unlikely. The firing of Bloom indicated to most fans that they were done with that approach and ready to compete. As a result, expectations have surged. They can’t follow that up with an incrementalist off-season.
Ohtani semi-regularly played outfield in Japan (130ish games?) and in 2021 with the Angels, he sometimes went to right field after pitching (I tracked this closely because he needed 10 games there to qualify for OF in my fantasy league... he only reached 8).
I don't think he will be able to play outfield next year but I anticipate that, barring a serious injury, he could play OF as part of his next contract even if he was not able to pitch. The gray area is there is some chance that his current recovery tanks, or he re-injures his arm, and cannot pitch or throw at all. In that hypo, he may not be able to bat either.
Have his agents acknowledged whether this last surgery was bracing or full TJS?
Why fire Bloom then? The Bloom firing signals a departure from that approach and is an indictment on the state of the roster. Ownership doesn't believe it can compete as constructed, so they are brought in someone new that is presumably going to be aggressive this off-season and stamp the organization with his signature, for better or worse.
I don't trust this organization to spend enough money to win AFTER spending 40+ on Ohtani. Even if he proved to be 'worth it' from a WAR perspective they would be so limited on pitching they would end up last in AL East. Again.
No thanks, dont want to be the Angels east. They can quickly prove me wrong, but we aren't really 'big market' in terms of building a team at the top of the FA any more (with the Yankees or Mets or Dodgers or....). I'm just hoping they pry open the wallets to win a decent FA pitcher.
As amazing as Ohtani is, I wouldn't do it. He's already nearing 30 years of age and it appears that he's going to miss pitching for the whole year. I would rather invest that money into pitching, especially because I think the offense will be okay. If anything, I would rather trade for and extend Soto given his age. It looks like a safer gamble.
Of course we would all love Ohtani at the right price, remains to be seen where the market goes. As far as the injury stuff, as far as I know his only major injuries have been elbow/pitching related.
If you remove the pitching stuff entirely from the equation and pretend he never throws another inning, what is he worth as a bat only? I think he could probably find a position for much of the contract if he didnt pitch, not just DH.
I agree the pitching is super risky, but the bat is still so elite I could potentially convince myself a massive contract is still warranted if you're banking on 80-90% of the value being as a hitter.
If you remove the pitching stuff entirely from the equation and pretend he never throws another inning, what is he worth as a bat only? I think he could probably find a position for much of the contract if he didnt pitch, not just DH.
I agree the pitching is super risky, but the bat is still so elite I could potentially convince myself a massive contract is still warranted if you're banking on 80-90% of the value being as a hitter.
Q: Would a team run afoul of the league’s salary framework if they paid Ohtani as a high-level OF/DH but put in outsized escalator clauses for Games Started/Innings Pitched in case the team/agent/player consensus is he is back to pitching, as well, once he recovers sufficiently? Crazy talk, right?
If you take 1 WAR as being worth 8 million as per Fangraphs, Ohtani has been worth 124 million as a hitter in the past three seasons. So basically if you sign him at anything over 40 million, you would very likely not get any surplus value from him exclusively as a hitter in his prime years to make up for the inevitable decline. Now, if you're reasonably confident he could pitch at 80% of the level he has demonstrated thus far for, say, 2025, 2026 and 2027, then 50 million AAV being a good deal is absolutely on the table.
I think that that's exactly what Bloom told the brass would happen after the trade deadline in 2023. (He may have said it, but with less certainty, in 2022 as well). He was spectacularly wrong. Whether he "deserved" to be fired for it is beside the point. As a pure factual matter, the team's post-deadline performance demonstrated pretty clearly that more than just "good health" is needed to contend.
Ohtani played a total of 62 games in the outfield in Japan, out of over 400 games played in his NPB career. Most of those games (54) came in 2013. It's been ten years since he's played any meaningful time in the outfield (9 innings across 8 games in 2021 is hardly meaningful...that's Dalbec playing 2B level meaningful). I'm sure his athleticism will work in his favor, but I don't think we should assume Ohtani can regularly play a defensive position going forward. Not unless/until he completely abandons pitching.
And last year was his best OPS by 100 points. It seems foolish to assume that's his new baseline of performance rather than a career year. Shohei who has a .900 OPS and can only DH is a great player, but he'd be overpaid at anything more than $25 million.
Well, I’m sure it depends what the numbers are. Let’s say he has 10/$375m on the table, and you offer him, I dunno, 12/$300m guaranteed with $200m in escalators for pitching appearances: say, $2m each for his first 50 starts, $1m per start thereafter up to 100 starts additional. He’s gotta be tempted, right?
But he would be making throws from the OF with the same arm, right? Granted not as often but there will be times when he's going to need to get the ball into the infield with a little extra on it.
If the rumors about trying to add multiple top starters are true, Woodruff could be an interesting low-cost option for the second. But no guarantee he even pitches in '24. I suppose you could try to extend him on a 2-year deal after acquiring him.
View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1725536885718626747?s=20
From Jon Morosi:
The Brewers are discussing Brandon Woodruff in trade conversations with multiple teams, as I reported on @MLBNetwork today. Woodruff will miss the start of '24 after undergoing shoulder surgery, but teams see value in (a) having him for 2nd half and (b) QO value after '24.
View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1725536885718626747?s=20
From Jon Morosi:
The Brewers are discussing Brandon Woodruff in trade conversations with multiple teams, as I reported on @MLBNetwork today. Woodruff will miss the start of '24 after undergoing shoulder surgery, but teams see value in (a) having him for 2nd half and (b) QO value after '24.
If that’s the best offer, sure. But someone will just offer him the whole 500 mil (or whatever) straight up.
I agree and, while I do think he could regularly play an outfield position if he abandons pitching, that would only happen if his arm injuries became so serious that he could not pitch, which creates a whole bunch of uncertainty about the theoretical ability to play in the field.
It's been sort of blah so far... but in the league overall. However, once the moves start... could be interesting.
Worth noting that the first significant free agent signing last winter didn't occur until after Thanksgiving (Jose Abreu to the Astros on 11/28/22). This time of year is rarely ever hopping.
Not that we will ever know but I don't think they fired Bloom because he didn't want to go big in 2024. It's that they didn't think he could execute it effectively because people were sick of dealing with him. That's the scuttlebutt anyway.
Give me Ohtani any day. Are we seriously worried he won't come back from TJ surgery? How is his injury history different from Eovaldi's? Seems like he is very likely to pitch again in some capacity, with his ceiling still being 5 additional bWAR on top of his offensive production.
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