General Offseason Thread.

PedroKsBambino

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Seems like a small loss for Philly and a giant loss for Sixers Twitter, where BBall Paul is a favorite.

Interesting grab by Danny
 

lovegtm

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That's a hilariously competent but also petty offer sheet; good stuff, Danny.

Probably we'll see more of this from the cap room/salary floor teams going forward, since they get 6 years to exploit it.
 

Cellar-Door

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PHI can match but according to article beliw, it vaults them into luxury tax territory and they have to pay minimum of $14M extra.

I'm surprised ghat DA didn't stick a fourth year of springing guaranteed money.

https://www.espn.co.uk/nba/story/_/id/37978331/76ers-free-agent-paul-reed-jr-signs-jazz-offer-sheet?platform=amp
I'd have to look it up, but I believe nin-guarantee/option years are limited to 2, same reason all the rookie 2nd rounders get 4 years with 2 guaranteed or 3 with 1 guaranteed
 

HomeRunBaker

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Pretty rough swap for Philly if that's the case. 2023 playoff minutes:

Bamba: 10 total minutes in 16 games
Harrell: 7 total minutes in 11 games
Reed: 157 minutes in 11 games
Yeah at this point I don't see Bamba or Harrell as NBA players. Reed needed to go out and find an offer sheet then Danny made sure he stuck it to the Sixers.
 

JakeRae

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Paul Reed is a guy I was pretty high on in the 2020 draft at the 47 pick we used on Yam Madar. He’s another example of the seemingly underutilized predictive power of college steal rate for projecting NBA success. I wouldn’t necessarily advocate steal rate as a primary tool for lottery, or even first round, selections. But when you get to the second round, it’s a pretty good way to find guys likely to stick in the NBA as role players. Jaylen Clark is the standout on this level in the second round this year. Of Celtics note, Jordan Walsh is good on steals, but not a standout. He’s better than most of the other guys people wanted in a similar mold in the early second.

In 2021, Herbert Jones was a standout steals guy in the second. Last year it was Kennedy Chandler and Josh Minott, and it’s obviously too early to tell what their future holds in the NBA. I’m not advocating drafting on this one metric, but I know there have been studies in the past on it having real predictive value, so this also isn’t a random set of isolated correlations.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Paul Reed is a guy I was pretty high on in the 2020 draft at the 47 pick we used on Yam Madar. He’s another example of the seemingly underutilized predictive power of college steal rate for projecting NBA success. I wouldn’t necessarily advocate steal rate as a primary tool for lottery, or even first round, selections. But when you get to the second round, it’s a pretty good way to find guys likely to stick in the NBA as role players. Jaylen Clark is the standout on this level in the second round this year. Of Celtics note, Jordan Walsh is good on steals, but not a standout. He’s better than most of the other guys people wanted in a similar mold in the early second.

In 2021, Herbert Jones was a standout steals guy in the second. Last year it was Kennedy Chandler and Josh Minott, and it’s obviously too early to tell what their future holds in the NBA. I’m not advocating drafting on this one metric, but I know there have been studies in the past on it having real predictive value, so this also isn’t a random set of isolated correlations.
I have a compulsive need to compare all second round picks with Semi Ojeleye as our most recent usable 2nd rounder type, and the theory holds true there too, Semi’s steal rate was horrendous in his one full season of college ball at half a steal per 40…yikes.
 

lovegtm

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I like how he only requires them to get to the second round in recognition of Philly’s pathetic playoff results.
I loved that it was specifically the 2nd round; actually lol'd.

So petty yet so awesome.
 

jmcc5400

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Josh Hart’s exchanges with Tyrese Haliburtin are hilarious. For example, at the draft, Haliburtin was noting how superficial draft comparisons are, and Hart waded in to roast him:

View: https://twitter.com/joshhart/status/1672039524774363139?s=46&t=HTfPokKDp3ZZT_jPb1hYXQ


Only to get roasted back:

View: https://twitter.com/joshhart/status/1672043562731544577?s=46&t=HTfPokKDp3ZZT_jPb1hYXQ
 

jon abbey

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Still can't believe how he shut down Donovan Mitchell in their playoff series, a defender shouldn't be able to do that to a great perimeter scorer. It's never a one man effort but a lot of it was just Hart's ubiquity. I never watched him much before he came to NY, but he is an incredible player.
 

Van Everyman

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HomeRunBaker

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What's not to like about that deal for such an athlete and talent with a big time work ethic who just turned 22?
 

Devizier

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What's not to like about that deal for such an athlete and talent with a big time work ethic who just turned 22?
Big problem is that he doesn't look to have improved that much the last two years?

With non-contenders it's probably less of an issue, though? You give the guy a speculative contract and hope he puts it together.
 

benhogan

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What's not to like about that deal for such an athlete and talent with a big time work ethic who just turned 22?
Screw Double BIGs, the Pistons are now going TRIPLE BIGZ along with Marvin Bagley at SG.

2020 was a heckuva first draft for Troy:
#7 Killian Hayes
#16 Isaiah Stewart
#19 Saddiq Bey

He even gets his mitts on 2020 #2 James Wisman

Detroit's last playoff appearance was 2019, which won't change by season's end. They secretly extended Troy last summer, so he's got a firm handle on the situation.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Big problem is that he doesn't look to have improved that much the last two years?

With non-contenders it's probably less of an issue, though? You give the guy a speculative contract and hope he puts it together.
They stretched him out a lot more last year and that's a work in progress. He's never going to be a star but the guy is a workhorse like a rich man's Montrezl Harrell with better skills.
 

Jimbodandy

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They stretched him out a lot more last year and that's a work in progress. He's never going to be a star but the guy is a workhorse like a rich man's Montrezl Harrell with better skills.
I'm a fan of Beef Stew myself and don't think that this contract is an abomination or anything. But even with the increased cap, it's a lot for him. Probably doesn't matter for where Detroit is, but Stew's advanced metrics don't look like a 16x4 guy. If this were 10x3 or 11x3, nobody would question it.
 

Auger34

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I'm a fan of Beef Stew myself and don't think that this contract is an abomination or anything. But even with the increased cap, it's a lot for him. Probably doesn't matter for where Detroit is, but Stew's advanced metrics don't look like a 16x4 guy. If this were 10x3 or 11x3, nobody would question it.
I don’t hate the contract (it’s definitely top end of what he would get) but I agree with @benhogan that Detroit is the absolute worst team to give it to him. They have so many 4/5 types that are all young and need minutes….and none of them really have a 3 point shot, the same thing that Stew needs to work on.
Bagley/Wiseman/Duren/Livers. Shit even Bogdanovic and Cunningham can play the 4.
would have loved to see him on a different team
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I'm a fan of Beef Stew myself and don't think that this contract is an abomination or anything. But even with the increased cap, it's a lot for him. Probably doesn't matter for where Detroit is, but Stew's advanced metrics don't look like a 16x4 guy. If this were 10x3 or 11x3, nobody would question it.
My take is that like all things NBA, this contract will look fine against the new CBA. I will be shocked if it limits the Pistons in any way at all so its a fair deal in that regard - whether Stewart is exactly worth that exact deal is an open question. But I think few of us have the information to determine value here. People struggle with the upward slope of prices regardless of context because paying "more" never feels right.

On another note, when Stewart came up last week someone noted that teams rarely trade these sorts of players. That person was spot on.
 

Jimbodandy

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My take is that like all things NBA, this contract will look fine against the new CBA. I will be shocked if it limits the Pistons in any way at all so its a fair deal in that regard - whether Stewart is exactly worth that exact deal is an open question. But I think few of us have the information to determine value here. People struggle with the upward slope of prices regardless of context because paying "more" never feels right.

On another note, when Stewart came up last week someone noted that teams rarely trade these sorts of players. That person was spot on.
Agreed on all of that. Even so, I find myself surprised at some of the price tags. Tbb and BH are correct that Detroit isn't building the roster well, but that has nothing to do with whether it'd be hard to move off Beef if they had to in two years. Every time the cap changes some of us are taken aback, even when we know better. Fwiw, I'm a fan of Stewart's who was hoping that he'd drop to one of those late firsts that we had that year.
 

benhogan

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I don’t hate the contract (it’s definitely top end of what he would get) but I agree with @benhogan that Detroit is the absolute worst team to give it to him. They have so many 4/5 types that are all young and need minutes….and none of them really have a 3 point shot, the same thing that Stew needs to work on.
Bagley/Wiseman/Duren/Livers. Shit even Bogdanovic and Cunningham can play the 4.
would have loved to see him on a different team
Yea, I like Beef Stew and would have loved him on the C's at one more cheap season to back-up TL (insurance). By all accounts, he's a hard worker, good guy, and never has any kind of issues.

Much like paying up for Grant to be a #8/9 man in the rotation is a not-so-great idea. Contenders won't be knocking down Detroit's door to trade for a $15MM/yr back up BIG

Detroit is just a jumbled mess. Maybe that opens up the opportunity for Brad to snag one of the other half dozen 4/5s they have on the roster
 

PedroKsBambino

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This to me is a different version of the criticism I had of the Jevon Carter contract - which is that the player is useful and the value isn't awful (especially the Carter deal) but the positional need and team need for this contract/player is really hard to defend.

In Bulls case they simply need to blow it up, so signing a no-upside guy is silly; in Pistons case, committing material (not at all crippling) money to a rotational big doesn't fit their roster or timeline. Neither of these is awful, but neither really makes sense either.

I'd guess the Bulls would say "we're contenders!" and I just don't think it is so....PIstons, I guess, would say it's a message to young guys?
 

benhogan

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This to me is a different version of the criticism I had of the Jevon Carter contract - which is that the player is useful and the value isn't awful (especially the Carter deal) but the positional need and team need for this contract/player is really hard to defend.

In Bulls case they simply need to blow it up, so signing a no-upside guy is silly; in Pistons case, committing material (not at all crippling) money to a rotational big doesn't fit their roster or timeline. Neither of these is awful, but neither really makes sense either.

I'd guess the Bulls would say "we're contenders!" and I just don't think it is so....PIstons, I guess, would say it's a message to young guys?
Bulls are clearly in purgatory.
I like the Carter deal (3yrs @ $20MM) with Lonzo pretty much done.
They also re-upped Colby White at (3yrs@$36M) which is OKish.
Maybe they move Caruso to more of a WING role and less on-ball?

I think the Bulls will eventually move Lavine which may need mid-level contracts like those 3 players provide. Which could be an argument with Beef Stew, I guess. I mean if Weaver is so in love with BIGs he could have sent out something like Beef Stew/Bojan/Morris for Ayton
 

Cellar-Door

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Bulls are clearly in purgatory.
I like the Carter deal (3yrs @ $20MM) with Lonzo pretty much done.
They also re-upped Colby White at (3yrs@$36M) which is OKish.
Maybe they move Caruso to more of a WING role and less on-ball?

I think the Bulls will eventually move Lavine which may need mid-level contracts like those 3 players provide. Which could be an argument with Beef Stew, I guess. I mean if Weaver is so in love with BIGs he could have sent out something like Beef Stew/Bojan/Morris for Ayton
I think the Bulls' problem is three-fold;
1. They can't get good value for their vets.
2. The owners don't want to blow it up.
3. The owners saw the very brief stretch with Lonzo at PG and Caruso(very much not a PG on offense) at the 2 where they looked great and said "this is a contender, this totally isn't a small sample outlier) and think the team was just competent PG play away from contention

It's fine, in part because this year they'll probably be a 7 seed then the cap will go up and they can probably get moderate value for Carter, or loop him into a LaVine deal as a positive addition.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Yeah, I think number 2/3 (owners) is the issue and I don't really criticize the GM for this. Or feel it's bad in the abstract---it's a symptom of a team who hasn't figured out the movie is over and it's time to leave!
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Big problem is that he doesn't look to have improved that much the last two years?

With non-contenders it's probably less of an issue, though? You give the guy a speculative contract and hope he puts it together.
I'm not in their building to see his further progression this summer, but it appears they asked Stewart to shoot a LOT of threes this past year and got around 33% shooting. Which is damn good for increasing your 3-point attempts per game between four and five-fold. The Pistons seem to be "Al Horford-izing" Stewart which may lead to dividends in a few years.

The Pistons aren't attracting high end FAs or top 3 picks now, so I like getting the middle class of your team shored up in hopes of attracting #1/#2 options later. At the very least if he improves significantly and the team is still wallowing, you trade the player for a bunch of assets.
 

Van Everyman

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I'm not in their building to see his further progression this summer, but it appears they asked Stewart to shoot a LOT of threes this past year and got around 33% shooting. Which is damn good for increasing your 3-point attempts per game between four and five-fold. The Pistons seem to be "Al Horford-izing" Stewart which may lead to dividends in a few years.

The Pistons aren't attracting high end FAs or top 3 picks now, so I like getting the middle class of your team shored up in hopes of attracting #1/#2 options later. At the very least if he improves significantly and the team is still wallowing, you trade the player for a bunch of assets.
You make a great point in that the Pistons calculus around their roster is far different than say the Lakers, Clippers, Heat etc. Detroit is awesome in its own right but it doesn't have the pull of other locales. What might look like an "overpay" to fans may actually be a calculated decision that has some logic to it.

Again, I don't see any great harm by this deal, even if Stewart's development plateaus.