It seems like a lot of the mocks have Detroit going high upside prep with their pick (House or Jobe); is there something in Detroit’s history that makes this likely?
4. Red Sox: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas)
The Red Sox may covet Leiter, but Lawlar gives them the highest ceiling among the four elite prep shortstops.
4. Boston Red Sox
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
I think they're hoping for Leiter (and might get him) and will settle for Davis, but aren't ruling out the prep shortstops completely with conflicting info about which one they prefer. They're looking at North Carolina prep SS Payton Green and Florida prep SS Edwin Arroyo at their next picks.
40. Boston Red Sox: Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
They would need to agree to drop the “r” from their last name if Boston drafted them.For me its Leiter, Lawlar, and then a big gap to anyone else.
Really hoping we get one of those 2.
4. Boston Red Sox: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
The Red Sox seem to be on the three main college guys — Leiter, Davis and Rocker. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of those three taken here. Davis did have an impressive workout for the Red Sox last week, and he’s probably the safest of that group.
Kiley McDaniel, Keith Law, etc. do have a ton of sources and their mock drafts are based on informed speculation, but as we know in other sports we know teams put up smokescreens this time of year.So these mock drafts are essentially just message board posts written by sportswriters, right? They don't really seem to have any direct information about what these teams are looking to do. "Sox interested in top college prospects but also could maybe, you know, take one of those high school kids, I guess" isn't exactly deep insider knowledge.
I want Leiter, but I must admit it would be tempting to hear RemDawg say "KOO-mah RAWK-ah"They would need to agree to drop the “r” from their last name if Boston drafted them.
Yeah, I can’t get there with Davis. Give me a Vandy pitcher. Leiter is clear favorite of mine but I’ll settle for Rocker if he’s a fall back option. No thanks on Davis.Having a hard time getting excited about Henry Davis. Leiter or bust for me. If he’s gone, I want Rocker.
Law may be right here but I don't know how plugged in he is with the Red Sox. He consistently says they will go college when I think that's more institutional knowledge for him than sourced information. Last year in Chaim's first draft, they took two high school bats with their first two picks. In 2018 they picked Cannon (college) and Lugo (high school) with their highest picks and in 2018 they picked Casas and Decker with their first 2 picks. I just don't see a lot of "they will go college" evidence in recent history. In fact, it looks like the opposite. Their recent history is high school bats.Kiley McDaniel, Keith Law, etc. do have a ton of sources and their mock drafts are based on informed speculation, but as we know in other sports we know teams put up smokescreens this time of year.
FWIW, Kevin Goldstein of FG worked in Houston’s FO until very recently, and he’s not only been pretty candid about conversations with other FO types, but he’s also been writing behind-the-scenes stuff about the draft, trade deadline, etc. Consider too that a lot of FOs now employ former baseball writers from FG, BP, et al. None of which means any of these mocks are going to be accurate - teams do work the media, especially now - but I don’t think they’re totally just guessing, either (although in Boston’s case, nobody seems to know the plan if Leiter is gone).So these mock drafts are essentially just message board posts written by sportswriters, right? They don't really seem to have any direct information about what these teams are looking to do. "Sox interested in top college prospects but also could maybe, you know, take one of those high school kids, I guess" isn't exactly deep insider knowledge.
I'm also hoping that if Leiter doesn't work at no. 4, that Rocker is the "back up plan". a 1B/DH should have a higher offensive ceiling than what I'm seeing with Davis....I’m listening to it now. They both think Henry Davis is the back-up plan. They’re also really confident the bat will play, said he’d be an every day player at 1B/DH if it turned out he couldn’t catch in MLB.
To be fair they didn’t project him as a 1B/DH, it was more of a “worst-case scenario” kind of thing regarding his catching ability. Worst case scenario for Rocker (besides injury) is the fastball doesn’t miss bats and he never develops a 3rd pitch.I'm also hoping that if Leiter doesn't work at no. 4, that Rocker is the "back up plan". a 1B/DH should have a higher offensive ceiling than what I'm seeing with Davis....
From his Louisville Roster Bio:To be fair they didn’t project him as a 1B/DH, it was more of a “worst-case scenario” kind of thing regarding his catching ability. Worst case scenario for Rocker (besides injury) is the fastball doesn’t miss bats and he never develops a 3rd pitch.
And I think Davis has a very high offensive ceiling. He’s put up Spencer Torkelson college numbers and Torkelson is universally regarded as a top 5 prospect even though he plays 1B. I don’t think he’s Rutschmann/Torkelson good, but a more athletic version of Kyle Schwarber is not a bad get.
Well he doesn’t wear #2 like Bogaerts and he isn’t NAMED Jeter so that’s a plus over the current roster.From his Louisville Roster Bio:
Personal: Parents are Christopher and Andrea Davis… Siblings are Olivia and Morgan… Majoring in sport administration… Wants to coach college baseball after college… His parents Christopher and Andrea are the greatest influencers on his athletic career… Enjoys listening to music, shooting guns and traveling in his free time… Favorite movie is The Pursuit of Happiness… Favorite athlete is Derek Jeter…Favorite team is the New York Yankees.
Pass.
Probably because Boston is good and a large market team, unlike the teams in front of them.Why do they want the Sox?
What is he even talking about? None of those numbers corresponds to Davis's stats for his career or in any single year, per B-Ref. What is a "career hit tool meter"? Why is he dismissing scouting EV and launch angle?
The second half of this tweet really reads like it was produced by a mediocre machine learning algorithm. Not clear at this point Gammo passes the Turing test.
I'm with you. I'm gonna be bummed AF if the one time we get this high we get a CThe second half of this tweet really reads like it was produced by a mediocre machine learning algorithm. Not clear at this point Gammo passes the Turing test.
Davis, for whatever reason, is the choice I have a hard time getting excited about. But then again, I probably am the silly.
I get FO folks teams know folks from other teams, but I really doubt there's a dude out there as plugged in as that. It's all guessing.
Google doesn't even have a hit for that exact term.What is a "career hit tool meter"?
What is a "career hit tool meter"?
If Leiter really gives PIT/TEX/DET reason to believe he'd rather go back to college than sign with any of them, it might become rational for each team to pick someone they are more certain of signing. The problem is, if Leiter really wants to be signed by a team like the Sox (successful/big spending/historic), waiting a year isn't going to help. Right now the top choices in the 2022 draft would be Arizona — Baltimore — Pittsburgh (again) — Texas (again). So his bluff is probably a bluff, but the hope is that it creates just enough doubt that the 1-3 teams don't want to deal with it and instead go for someone else who they view as basically just as good.I'm with you. I'm gonna be bummed AF if the one time we get this high we get a C
Re Leiter, I gotta think players who still have college as an option have more leverage to dictate teams, no?
There was a history of the Sox scouting Leiter and he played in some tournaments or elite leagues with Sox scouting or development folks? Sorry for the imprecision, but there is an unusual relationship between him and the organization going back to high school.Why do they want the Sox?
4 Red Sox
Jack Leiter, Vandrbilt
If Leiter doesn’t go at No. 2 to the Rangers this spot seems like his most likely outcome at the moment. If Leiter is off the board, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Boston jump on Henry Davis or Brady House. Most sources we talk to seem to think Leiter won’t get past this spot, which is an indication that he could be the top player on Boston’s board. It seems like a solid fit for the team, as Leiter can certainly move quickly and the Red Sox are in more of a win-now position than other teams picking at the top of the draft.
McDaniel has the Sox taking catchers in both the first and second round. Is that a thing? Loading up on catchers?Kiley McDaniel, Keith Law, etc. do have a ton of sources and their mock drafts are based on informed speculation, but as we know in other sports we know teams put up smokescreens this time of year.
They (Red Sox) may not see either as a future catcher and you get the most talented player available.McDaniel has the Sox taking catchers in both the first and second round. Is that a thing? Loading up on catchers?
The latter I get. The former is probably a decent explanation. McDaniel's projected second round pick is Adrian Del Castillo, who sounds like maybe just a power bat?They (Red Sox) may not see either as a future catcher and you get the most talented player available.
Ah OK, thanks. 2018, picking 23rd and 60th, not top-of-the-draft talent you're projecting to the bigs with some certainty. Also both were high schoolers, who may be moved to any number of positions before hitting MLB.The Yankees did that a few years ago, Seigler in the first and Breaux in the second. Neither has done much yet, but catchers generally take so long to develop.
I think those numbers are his last two seasons at Louisville combined.What is he even talking about? None of those numbers corresponds to Davis's stats for his career or in any single year, per B-Ref. What is a "career hit tool meter"? Why is he dismissing scouting EV and launch angle?
Okay, so they are. But calling it a hit tool meter is....odd.I think those numbers are his last two seasons at Louisville combined.
Thanks, Ididn't kno the name and I don't think a team has taken catchers with their first two picks.The latter I get. The former is probably a decent explanation. McDaniel's projected second round pick is Adrian Del Castillo, who sounds like maybe just a power bat?
Ah OK, thanks. 2018, picking 23rd and 60th, not top-of-the-draft talent you're projecting to the bigs with some certainty. Also both were high schoolers, who may be moved to any number of positions before hitting MLB.