2021 Draft

[jmcc5400]

Anyone else do a little fist pump when he got out of that jam even as we were nervously looking at his pitch count with a proprietary interest?

 

[RoDaddy]

Great pitching in the 7th with guys on and over 100 pitches. I wonder if he just pitched himself into a 1-3 draft position and out of reach for the Sox

 

[tims4wins]

Anyone else do a little fist pump when he got out of that jam even as we were nervously looking at his pitch count with a proprietary interest?

Yep. I feel like he is already ours. I may cry if he’s not a Red Sox.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Great pitching in the 7th with guys on and over 100 pitches. I wonder if he just pitched himself into a 1-3 draft position and out of reach for the Sox

He's been in and out of the top 3 all season. I don't see any way that tonight changes anything. Teams have plenty of film to look at

 

[BigSoxFan]

I was 99.9% on the Leiter train before tonight. Now I’m at 100%. Kid is just really, really good. I’m going to be so bummed if someone takes him top 3.

 

[jmcc5400]

Great pitching in the 7th with guys on and over 100 pitches. I wonder if he just pitched himself into a 1-3 draft position and out of reach for the Sox

If it were purely a question of talent, he would not last to no. 4. It's about the bonus.

 

[jon abbey]

Wow, still in.

 

[tims4wins]

WTF. They are going to ruin his arm for us.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I'm shocked, and not really in a good way

 

[Just a bit outside]

College baseball, where they don’t care if they ruin your arm.

 

[tims4wins]

I am uncomfortable watching this. Squirming in my seat. This is abuse. I want it to end.

 

[jmcc5400]

Absolute malpractice and I say that as a dad and a baseball fan, not as a Red Sox fan. The irony of seeing the NCAA Supreme Court chyron as I watch some crusty old college baseball coach jeopardize a hundred-million dollar arm is sickening.

 

[RoDaddy]

Pitch 123 at 94 - very impressive!

 

[tims4wins]

Grady thinks he’s ok for the 9th

 

[Ferm Sheller]

He's going to pitch left-handed next inning (if there is one).

 

[RoDaddy]

As good as Leiter looks, I wish has was a bit bigger (Between 5'11'' and 6'0'' according to a scout, not the listed 6'1''). It's rare Boston gets a #4 choice and I worry about his smallish size wearing down during a big league season

 

[snowmanny]

As good as Leiter looks, I wish has was a bit bigger (Between 5'11'' and 6'0'' according to a scout, not the listed 6'1''). It's rare Boston gets a #4 choice and I worry about his smallish size wearing down during a big league season

If that turns out to be an issue they can always trade him for Delino DeShields.

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

I was 99.9% on the Leiter train before tonight. Now I’m at 100%. Kid is just really, really good. I’m going to be so bummed if someone takes him top 3.

How would you feel if he were there at 4 and they passed on him?

(This is my nightmare)

 

[BigSoxFan]

How would you feel if he were there at 4 and they passed on him?

(This is my nightmare)

Depends on the pick but if they go Henry Davis or something over him, I won’t be pleased.

 

[Jimbodandy]

If that turns out to be an issue they can always trade him for Delino DeShields.

 

[amRadio]

I still think Rocker compares much more favorably to Leiter than people think. I think his secondary pitches are better, his velocity even seems better despite all the hand-wringing over that. If they pass on Leiter for Rocker, Jobe or Lawler, fine. If they pass on him for Davis? That would hurt a lot.

 

[JimD]

How would you feel if he were there at 4 and they passed on him?

(This is my nightmare)

My nightmare is that they draft Leiter but he wants more $$$ than they are willing to pay and he returns to Vandy.

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

My nightmare is that they draft Leiter but he wants more $$$ than they are willing to pay and he returns to Vandy.

That would suck too. But I would think they would be aware of his contractual demands before drafting him, no?

 

[amRadio]

I would think simply putting up the draft collateral and being in the position to negotiate with a prospect like Leiter, Rocker, Jobe, or Lawler would behoove a club with their resources to eventually blink and meet whatever demands.

 

[Jimbodandy]

That would suck too. But I would think they would be aware of his contractual demands before drafting him, no?

Yeah it would be malpractice to pick a guy that high and start playing hardball then. Unless he has some kind of weirdo representation, everyone knows his number and will act accordingly.

 

[ShaneTrot]

Yeah it would be malpractice to pick a guy that high and start playing hardball then. Unless he has some kind of weirdo representation, everyone knows his number and will act accordingly.

It would also be malpractice by whoever was advising Leiter. What if he is injured next year pitching for Vandy? Works both ways, plus with the slotting system, how much wiggle room does the team and player have?

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

It would also be malpractice by whoever was advising Leiter. What if he is injured next year pitching for Vandy? Works both ways, plus with the slotting system, how much wiggle room does the team and player have?

In the top 5? Offers will probably vary by up to a million or so. Some teams, like Pittsburgh, have a supplemental pick and therefore larger bonus pool. They could use more of that on their #1, plus exceed their pool by up to 5%, without much penalty (merely a tax). But that’s not their M.O. Leiter’s looking for a team that’s willing to pay the most they reasonably can for that one top player and accept less costly talent in later rounds.

edit/add: I just looked back at 2017. The Twins took Royce Lewis #1 and Hunter Greene went next to the Reds, who paid him $.5M more than Lewis. The Braves also went way over on Kyle Wright that year and paid him more at #5 than what Lewis at #1 or Gore at #3 got. Generally, through, the bonuses are pretty linear and fall in line with expectations.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

It would also be malpractice by whoever was advising Leiter. What if he is injured next year pitching for Vandy? Works both ways, plus with the slotting system, how much wiggle room does the team and player have?

Plus, there are already rumors that Leiter would prefer being in the Sox system vs. teams like the Pirates, Rangers, and Orioles. If it's the case that he prefers to be in a big-market system, this year is by far his best chance - next year he would be looking at being drafted by the likes of the Royals, Orioles, Marlins, or Pirates. When you add in the risk that he gets injured next year, or just doesn't perform as well and slips in the draft (or slips anyway because he'll be one year older with that much more mileage on his arm) it would be pretty crazy to walk away from the Sox unless they were just absurdly intransigent in their negotiations, which they wouldn't be.

 

[Hairps]

Callis 6/23 mock draft:

4. Red Sox: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas)

Leiter may be the Red Sox preferred target and he should get here unless the Rangers take him. Otherwise, Boston likely will pick between Lawlar and Davis.

1. PIT - Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Jack Leiter
3. DET - Jackson Jobe
4. BOS - Jordan Lawlar
5. BAL - Henry Davis

Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):

Jack Leiter: 3 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18)
Henry Davis: 2 ( Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9)
Jordan Lawlar: 2 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-23-2021?t=mlb-draft-coverage

 

[Hairps]

Keith Law 6/24 mock draft:

4. Boston Red Sox: Henry Davis, C, Louisville

The Red Sox are a huge inflection point in this draft, as they seem to be on the main three college names in Leiter, Rocker and Davis, and now are likely to have a choice of at least two of them.

1. PIT - Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Jordan Lawlar
3. DET - Jack Leiter
4. BOS - Henry Davis
5. BAL - Colton Cowser

Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):

Jack Leiter: 3 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18)
Henry Davis: 3 ( Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24)
Jordan Lawlar: 2 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)

https://theathletic.com/2669873/2021/06/24/2021-mlb-mock-draft-2-0-jack-leiter-to-tigers-pirates-take-a-high-school-shortstop-in-keith-laws-latest-look/

 

[amRadio]

I highly doubt Chaim blows off Rocker for Davis. Davis doesn't stand a strong enough chance of sticking at C in the pros. I've spent this whole thread drooling over Rocker and I apologize if it's a schtick or annoying at this point, but I'll just state for posterity that I think that Rocker is the better amateur prospect than Davis or Leiter and will have a better pro career than both. If they're hard up for Leiter, I read that as they believe Rocker isn't getting past Detroit. Based on the percentage of his strikeouts that come on offspeed pitches and the drastic statistical improvement this season I have to believe if Rocker is available they're not going to pass on him.

 

[chawson]

Still don’t love taking Davis, a “potential .265 hitter” who might not stick behind the plate, that early, especially entering an era where a core component of catching (defense) could matter less than ever.

Here are the backstops drafted within the top 10 picks in the last 25 years:

Mauer, Rutschman, Bryce Harper (1)
Joey Bart (2)
Eric Munson, Jeff Clement, Mike Zunino (3)
Tony Sanchez (4)
Posey, Matt Wieters (5)
Kyle Skipworth, Alex Jackson (6)
Shea Langoliers (9)
Jason Castro, Zack Collins (10)

Mauer and Posey are generational talents. Bart and Rutschman are still developing, but the other guys flamed out or, in the case of Wieters and Castro, had middling (yet disappointing) careers. (Harper’s not a great comp as a draftee people thought had a HoF-potential bat that everyone projected to the outfield.)

Is that a higher flameout rate than other position players taken that early? It seems so to me. Catchers seem to have different development arcs than other players, and better international scouting has really opened up the field.

 

[nvalvo]

Still don’t love taking Davis, a “potential .265 hitter” who might not stick behind the plate, that early, especially entering an era where a core component of catching (defense) could matter less than ever.

Here are the backstops drafted within the top 10 picks in the last 25 years:

Mauer, Rutschman, Bryce Harper (1)
Joey Bart (2)
Eric Munson, Jeff Clement, Mike Zunino (3)
Tony Sanchez (4)
Posey, Matt Wieters (5)
Kyle Skipworth, Alex Jackson (6)
Shea Langoliers (9)
Jason Castro, Zack Collins (10)

Mauer and Posey are generational talents. Bart and Rutschman are still developing, but the other guys flamed out or, in the case of Wieters and Castro, had middling (yet disappointing) careers. (Harper’s not a great comp as a draftee people thought had a HoF-potential bat that everyone projected to the outfield.)

Is that a higher flameout rate than other position players taken that early? It seems so to me. Catchers seem to have different development arcs than other players, and better international scouting has really opened up the field.

Is that a terribly high flameout rate? I guess the question is compared to what.

Just to compare, I pulled down the top-10 picks who were outfielders between 2000 and 2015 (to exclude the very young). Harper's on this list, too, which — who knows.


Also, I know Matt Wieters was appointed to the HOF by the internet when he was still in A-ball, but his 18 WAR would be third on the OF chart (Castro would be sixth). If that's a "middling" career, I think the standards might be too high.

 

[Hairps]

BA 6/25 mock draft:

Jack Leiter

Leiter’s name seems to be in play in each of the first three spots, but there’s also been a lot linking Boston and Leiter here at No. 4. A month ago we had Leiter at this spot but noted that both he and teammate Kumar Rocker had raised a few questions. Leiter has put up stupid numbers in his last three starts since then: 21 innings, three earned runs, nine hits, 36 strikeouts, six walks.

If Leiter isn’t available here the Red Sox might become a bit of a wild card, though both Lawlar and Louisville catcher Henry Davis would make sense on talent—though we haven’t heard much specifically linking those players to Boston. This is the presumed floor for Leiter at this point.

1. PIT - Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Jordan Lawlar
3. DET - Jackson Jobe
4. BOS - Jack Leiter
5. BAL - Kahlil Watson

Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):

Jack Leiter: 4 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25)
Henry Davis: 3 ( Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24)
Jordan Lawlar: 2 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

 

[chawson]

Is that a terribly high flameout rate? I guess the question is compared to what.

Just to compare, I pulled down the top-10 picks who were outfielders between 2000 and 2015 (to exclude the very young). Harper's on this list, too, which — who knows.

View attachment 42162
Also, I know Matt Wieters was appointed to the HOF by the internet when he was still in A-ball, but his 18 WAR would be third on the OF chart (Castro would be sixth). If that's a "middling" career, I think the standards might be too high.

Interesting, thanks. Pull back that time frame a couple years and we get Josh Hamilton, J.D. Drew, Vernon Wells and Corey Patterson in that early-drafted outfielder crew, but you’re right that there’s not an overwhelming disparity there.

Wieters is a funny case. He was definitely overhyped early but it’s hard not to be disappointed with a career arc where 75 percent of total WAR came in a player’s first three full seasons. Posey and Mauer also had major career-altering injuries. Maybe catchers are just riskier?

Anyway, I’m probably reverse-engineering an argument to explain my preference for someone other than Davis. I trust Bloom will use the pick well.

 

[sean1562]

Is that a terribly high flameout rate? I guess the question is compared to what.

Just to compare, I pulled down the top-10 picks who were outfielders between 2000 and 2015 (to exclude the very young). Harper's on this list, too, which — who knows.

View attachment 42162
Also, I know Matt Wieters was appointed to the HOF by the internet when he was still in A-ball, but his 18 WAR would be third on the OF chart (Castro would be sixth). If that's a "middling" career, I think the standards might be too high.

To be fair, it isn't terribly unlikely that Conforto, Buxton, and Beni pass him on that list. I could see Happ, Meadows, and Tucker potentially squeezing past Wieters as well. But to bolster your point a bit, the 2016 draft began with OF Mickey Moniak being selected #1 followed by OF Corey Ray #5. I think the MLB draft is just so much of a crapshoot that you really have to believe in the best judgement of your team's front office and hope that they know what they are doing.

 

[pokey_reese]

From Eric Longenhagen's chat at Fangraphs today:

Mike
12:19
Hey Eric - still hearing the rumor that Leiter is pricing himself to the Red Sox at 4? Any other Red Sox rumors you're hearing?

Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
A scout told me yesterday they've kicked around what it might take to get Mayer to fall to them, even if it means over slot. KG and I will be working the phones over the weekend and have a new mock out next week

I'm sure they would love to have a crack at Mayer (who wouldn't), but this is the first time I've heard of a team specifically trying to manipulate a guy to go OVERslot and fall to them in a while.

 

[OCD SS]

There’s a difference of $1.75 M between the Sox and Buc’s first round bonus pool, and over $3M between their overall pools. Pitt would have to be pretty committed to going under slot at #1, and conversely Chaim would have to really want (uncharacteristically, IMO) to put all his eggs in the Mayer basket to make such a play.

Sounds more like a Doctor Evil, break the draft for fun smokescreen to me.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Rocker scheduled to pitch on ESPN2 this afternoon

 

[pokey_reese]

Rocker scheduled to pitch on ESPN2 this afternoon

Currently sitting at 110 pitches through six innings, 5 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, and 11 Ks. Not too bad.

edit: as expected, he is done for the day

 

[cantor44]

I kind of want NC State to win this game so Leiter and Rocker don't have to pitch again. Don't want their stock to rise any further; don't want them injured.

 

[cantor44]

Leiter pitching well in game 1 of CWS. Tons of strike outs, but two runs in the first four innings.
The crazy accidents of history: A global pandemic, NC State players exposed, a no contest declared in a game NCST had a good chance to win, to the CWS for Vanderbilt, and a chance for Leiter to raise his stock again, maybe putting him out of reach for the Red Sox. (You might say a single game won't change how he's evaluated to which I say: Panda)

Point of interest. Mississippi State's left fielder is names Brad Cumbest. Alert Key and Peele.

 

[Hairps]

MLB/Mayo 6/30 mock draft:

4. Red Sox: Henry Davis, C, Louisville

The names here continue to be Davis, the top college bat in the country, Lawlar, Watson and Rocker, of those who weren’t taken in the top three of this mock.

1. PIT - Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Jack Leiter
3. DET - Jackson Jobe
4. BOS - Henry Davis
5. BAL - Jordan Lawlar

Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):

Henry Davis: 4 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30)
Jack Leiter: 4 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25)
Jordan Lawlar: 2 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-30-2021?t=mlb-draft-coverage

 

[JimD]

I'm increasingly resigned to Leiter probably not being there when the Sox pick.

 

[bosockboy]

I'm increasingly resigned to Leiter probably not being there when the Sox pick.

Leiter is going to game his way to Boston. Chess match starts now.

 

[Hairps]

FanGraphs 7/6 mock draft:

4. Boston Red Sox
Pick: Henry Davis, C, Louisville

Few teams have more wild rumors running around them than the Red Sox. There continues to be talk of the team trying to price Leiter down to them, but most sources believe that a team ahead of them will take him and dare his camp to turn down a $7 million payday. There are rumors Boston touched base with Mayer’s camp, but that the motivation there may be to inflate Mayer’s price above whatever threshold Pittsburgh deems acceptable so that they look elsewhere and Mayer goes second, making it possible for Leiter to fall to Boston at four. We’re giving them the best player available here, as they recently conducted a private workout with Henry Davis, House and Jud Fabian. Some hypothesize that if the Leiter/Mayer gambits don’t work, they’ll look to cut an under-slot deal, with prep catcher Harry Ford mentioned, in an attempt to spread out their $11 million-plus draft pool. This is also where Kumar Rocker’s market seems to begin.

1. PIT - Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Jack Leiter
3. DET - Brady House
4. BOS - Henry Davis
5. BAL - Colton Cowser

Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):

Henry Davis: 5 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6)
Jack Leiter: 4 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25)
Jordan Lawlar: 2 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0-3/

 

[Hank Scorpio]

If we are lucky enough to get Leiter, would he immediately be regarded as our best prospect as far as the lists go? If not, where would he likely slot in?

 

[amRadio]

If they take Davis over Rocker or Jobe at four with both of them available I'm going to have a real hard time with that personally.

 

[Just a bit outside]

If we are lucky enough to get Leiter, would he immediately be regarded as our best prospect as far as the lists go? If not, where would he likely slot in?

Fangraphs would have him after Cases and Downs. MLB would have him ahead of those guys.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

It seems like there’s this undercurrent in the mocks - which are informed by conversations with actual front-office people, agents, scouts, etc - of “nobody knows what they’re going to do if Leiter isn’t there, so I guess we’ll just put Davis there?”

I do buy the argument that a college player fits their timeline, but I guess we’ll see.