2021 Draft

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I can't take this anymore! Reading that Leiter wants to be here felt like getting a text from a loved one in COVID.
 

sodenj5

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FanGraphs' Kevin Goldstein and Eric Longenhagen 6/14 mock draft:



1. PIT - Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Jordan Lawlar
3. DET - Brady House
4. BOS - Jack Leiter
5. BAL - Henry Davis

Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):

Henry Davis: 2 ( Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
Jordan Lawlar: 1 (Mayo 6/2)
Jack Leiter: 1 (FG 6/14)

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-mlb-mock-draft-one-month-to-go/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+hardballtimes+(The+Hardball+Times)
I’m not as knowledgeable about the MLB draft and I know it’s routine for guys to get drafted in the second or third round to first round money to get them to go pro instead of college.

What leverage does Leiter actually have if he’s pretty much universally viewed as a top 5 pick? Is there no cap for top 10 picks at all?

Or would it be more his unwillingness to take anything below his slot value and teams like Pittsburgh would rather get more value in the later rounds with a larger pool.
 
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gammoseditor

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I’m not as knowledgeable about the MLB draft and I know it’s routine for guys to get drafted in the second or third round to first round money to get them to go pro instead of college.

What leverage does Leiter actually have if he’s pretty much universally viewed as a top 5 pick? Is there no cap for top 10 picks at all?
Speculating, but teams at the top of the draft have a lot of leverage in the new slotting system. Teams at the top use this for leverage to try and get who they want for less than full slot. It’s easier and smarter to do this when there is no clear cut best available. Unless a team is willing to offer the top value of the pick Leiter can pretty easily say he doesn’t want to sign for less and the team can move on to someone who will. I don’t think Leiter is pushing for the Red Sox over the full slot at #1.
 

sodenj5

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Speculating, but teams at the top of the draft have a lot of leverage in the new slotting system. Teams at the top use this for leverage to try and get who they want for less than full slot. It’s easier and smarter to do this when there is no clear cut best available. Unless a team is willing to offer the top value of the pick Leiter can pretty easily say he doesn’t want to sign for less and the team can move on to someone who will. I don’t think Leiter is pushing for the Red Sox over the full slot at #1.
Made an edit, but that’s kind of what I was assuming as well. Leiter isn’t interested in taking a discount and sees Boston as the best combination of getting paid and organization.
 

gammoseditor

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Made an edit, but that’s kind of what I was assuming as well. Leiter isn’t interested in taking a discount and sees Boston as the best combination of getting paid and organization.
Also worth pointing out if he’s not the clear cut #1 the Red Sox may be offering him the most money. The 2nd highest bonus last year went to the #5 pick.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/draft/2020/
 

RedOctober3829

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I’m not as knowledgeable about the MLB draft and I know it’s routine for guys to get drafted in the second or third round to first round money to get them to go pro instead of college.

What leverage does Leiter actually have if he’s pretty much universally viewed as a top 5 pick? Is there no cap for top 10 picks at all?

Or would it be more his unwillingness to take anything below his slot value and teams like Pittsburgh would rather get more value in the later rounds with a larger pool.
He has the leverage of not signing and going back to Vandy for another year.
 

gammoseditor

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Is it really much leverage when no one thinks he would do that?
I am pretty sure in this hypothetical teams are offering under slot. Usually if teams are doing this they are intentionally taking to multiple players and willing to take the one that takes the deal. A team could just take a guy and say we are offering you $1 million under slot take it or leave it but I don’t think that happens for a variety of reasons. Most importantly if he ultimately turns it down they don’t get to use any of that slot money.
 

nvalvo

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I am pretty sure in this hypothetical teams are offering under slot. Usually if teams are doing this they are intentionally taking to multiple players and willing to take the one that takes the deal. A team could just take a guy and say we are offering you $1 million under slot take it or leave it but I don’t think that happens for a variety of reasons. Most importantly if he ultimately turns it down they don’t get to use any of that slot money.
Until next year, right?
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I’m not as knowledgeable about the MLB draft and I know it’s routine for guys to get drafted in the second or third round to first round money to get them to go pro instead of college.

What leverage does Leiter actually have if he’s pretty much universally viewed as a top 5 pick? Is there no cap for top 10 picks at all?

Or would it be more his unwillingness to take anything below his slot value and teams like Pittsburgh would rather get more value in the later rounds with a larger pool.
Here’s a good article on the process, with slot money available this year:
https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-mlb-draft-bonus-slots
 

gammoseditor

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Until next year, right?
Right. But if you are signing someone for under slot it is so you can go over slot later in the draft. If you don’t have an agreement with the under slot pick you lose leverage prior to the draft negotiating over slot deals later in the draft.
 

Apisith

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Leiter’s elite velocity is what is most attractive. I know nothing about scouting but I would take him over Rocker.
 

bosockboy

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I guess I’m curious why Lieter would want to force his way to Boston (other than he thinks Chaim will give him the most money); it’s not like we have a great track record with developing pitchers…
Assuming more national notoriety playing for a Mount Rushmore franchise.
 

nvalvo

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I guess I’m curious why Lieter would want to force his way to Boston (other than he thinks Chaim will give him the most money); it’s not like we have a great track record with developing pitchers…
When you set it next to the Pirates, Rangers, or Orioles, our record doesn't look that bad.
 

Hairps

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Additional detail from Goldstein's post-mock chat:

Bring Back Mookie (and Jeff) 12:02
So what exactly do you guys mean when you say Jack Leiter is trying to "price himself down" to Boston?

Kevin Goldstein12:02
He's throwing out, or going to throw out big bonus demands in order to scare the three teams picking ahead of Boston.
John12:05
Hi Kevin, thanks for doing the chat. I like Leiter a lot for the Red Sox, and was excited to read the pick in your mock today. As of now, would you say Leiter is the leader in the clubhouse for Boston’s pick at #4? If not, then who is?

Kevin Goldstein12:05
I think they'd also be happy to see Davis fall to them.
Boston12:53
Would any of the top 3 still draft Leiter, or will they just let him slip to Boston. Al Leiter said he could return to Vandy. Could they also be using that against the top 3?

Kevin Goldstein12:53
Dad saying he will go back to school just feels like politicking. And yes, a team could call the bluff.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-goldstein-fangraphs-chat-6-14-2021/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+hardballtimes+(The+Hardball+Times)
 

tims4wins

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I know little about these guys aside from what I read in this thread, but my god I'd be so excited about having Leiter in the system
 

RedOctober3829

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I know little about these guys aside from what I read in this thread, but my god I'd be so excited about having Leiter in the system
Of the two Vandy studs, Leiter has more tread on the tires in terms of the amount of pitching he's done since HS. Rocker has the hype and for good reason, but I think Leiter is Walker Buehler 2.0. I want him so badly. If they go before 4, one of the HS SS's Lawler/Mayer or Henry Davis would be fine.
 

BigSoxFan

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I know little about these guys aside from what I read in this thread, but my god I'd be so excited about having Leiter in the system
Vandy + Al Leiter's son. Can't really have a better pedigree than that. And he's obviously got a ton of talent. He's been my #1 choice for several months (previously was Rocker). Really hope it happens.
 

JimD

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I'd be thrilled to get either Leiter or Rocker. It feels like it has been so long since we've had a pitcher with a similar pedigree come into the Sox farm system. Anyone else would feel like at least a little bit of a letdown. We've had our share of ballyhooed catching prospects, and the high schoolers just disappear into the developmental system and lower minor leagues - give me a pitching prospect with the potential to rocket into the high minors and quickly make every Portland or Worcester start an event.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Leiter is pitching on ESPN U right now, for those interested.

Edit: I didn't see the 1st inning, but in the 2nd he's at 94-97 with the fastball, threw 2-3 okay curveballs around 80 mph, and then a filthy one to end the inning. Ump seems to have a generous strike zone right now, as the 2nd out was a called 3rd strike that was well outside.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Leiter is pitching on ESPN U right now, for those interested.

Edit: I didn't see the 1st inning, but in the 2nd he's at 94-97 with the fastball, threw 2-3 okay curveballs around 80 mph, and then a filthy one to end the inning. Ump seems to have a generous strike zone right now, as the 2nd out was a called 3rd strike that was well outside.
Want to bet on the final score? :)
 

ehaz

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I saw an interesting breakdown on Jack Leiter. Basically trying to explain why his fastball is so good at missing bats and how well it can translate to MLB. I’m a bit new to the vertical approach angle and vertical break stuff but Leiter’s fastball would already be an outlier in the MLB right now due to its perceived “rising” effect.

View: https://youtu.be/oiK-Kpw7Beo
 

Hairps

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Jonathan Mayo 6/16 mock draft:

4. Red Sox: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
Leiter, coming off a dominant turn in Super Regional play, could very well be gone, in which case the Red Sox could choose from the high school shortstops or Davis.
1. PIT - Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Kahlil Watson
3. DET - Jackson Jobe
4. BOS - Jack Leiter
5. BAL - Jordan Lawlar

Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):

Jack Leiter: 2 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16)
Henry Davis: 2 ( Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
Jordan Lawlar: 1 (Mayo 6/2)

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-16-2021?t=mlb-draft-coverage
 

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Jonathan Mayo 6/16 mock draft:



1. PIT - Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Kahlil Watson
3. DET - Jackson Jobe
4. BOS - Jack Leiter
5. BAL - Jordan Lawlar

Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):

Jack Leiter: 2 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16)
Henry Davis: 2 ( Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
Jordan Lawlar: 1 (Mayo 6/2)

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-16-2021?t=mlb-draft-coverage
When did Jackson Jobe join the party?
 

effectivelywild

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I saw an interesting breakdown on Jack Leiter. Basically trying to explain why his fastball is so good at missing bats and how well it can translate to MLB. I’m a bit new to the vertical approach angle and vertical break stuff but Leiter’s fastball would already be an outlier in the MLB right now due to its perceived “rising” effect.

View: https://youtu.be/oiK-Kpw7Beo
Any word on what he uses for grip? Rosin and sunscreen? Does Vandy have a proprietary mixture.

(Mostly) kidding.
 

Hairps

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Kiley McDaniel 6/18 mock draft:
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

This seems unlikely on its face, but two teams leaning to position players in a tight decision before Boston's turn is actually the most likely outcome at each pick. The Red Sox have been tough to pin down at this pick, being rumored with every top player, which is basically the same as being linked to none of them.
1. PIT - Marcelo Mayer
2. TEX - Henry Davis
3. DET - Brady House
4. BOS - Jack Leiter
5. BAL - Kahlil Watson

Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):

Jack Leiter: 3 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18)
Henry Davis: 2 ( Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
Jordan Lawlar: 1 (Mayo 6/2)

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31651109/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-mock-draft-20-new-no-1-gets-jack-leiter-kumar-rocker
 

DJnVa

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He got less hittable. He settled down, struck out 5 in row.

Two of the runs were unearned as well.

EDIT: now 13 in a row, 7 by K.
 
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amRadio

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Seems like he's 90-94 tonight with some snappy breaking pitches. Some look a tad flat and they all look a tad slow for pro hitters.
 

tims4wins

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First adversity of the night. Bases loaded, 1 out, down 1-0, 100+ pitch mark. K-K to get out of it. Hit 96 twice, highest velo of the game.

Batters now 0-10 with 9K against him with the bases loaded this year.

He has some serious compete.