2021 Draft

Dduncan6er

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Apr 16, 2020
232
Springfield, MA
I am absolutely not well versed in the ways of drafts and prospect development, but I'm having a hard time grasping the hate for Davis. I totally get being really excited by the idea of getting Leiter, but if Davis has the upside of Buster Posey then how is that not insanely high upside? Posey had a 5 year peak averaging 7.5 fwar per season with several respectable off-peak seasons. That's unquestionably one of the best players in the game at a premium position. From 2012-2016 Posey ranked #1, #9, #3, #6, #7 in position player fwar.

Unless you start looking at comps like A-Rod for the HS shortstop crop, you aren't finding a higher upside comp than Posey most likely. Are the shortstops really that good?

I guess I just can't square people saying that Davis has the upside of Buster Posey and also saying that he is a boring pick without enough upside when compared to the other possible picks.
I don’t believe I’ve heard anywhere that Davis has Posey upside. Posey was a better defender coming out and his college numbers at the plate are much better than Davis as well.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Sep 21, 2007
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Top of the baseball draft is less important, less urgent, and arguably more volatile than any of the other major sport drafts, so hard to get too worked up over their approach.
 

amRadio

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Feb 7, 2019
620
I don’t believe I’ve heard anywhere that Davis has Posey upside. Posey was a better defender coming out and his college numbers at the plate are much better than Davis as well.
I can't speak to Posey's defensive reputation as a catcher in college - I know he moved from SS to C in college but that's it. Posey once had a .566 OBP and an .879 SLG for a full season in D1 NCAA. That's crazy and beats Davis's best single season marks in those categories (.482/.663) by a solid margin. I don't know why Posey's name is associated with Davis and that's going unchallenged. Davis may not stick at C and isn't quite the offensive contributor at the NCAA level that Posey was. If there's a reason they're being compared that I'm unaware of I'd love to hear it. I'm open to warming up to Davis.
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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Pretty sure some folks were throwing Posey's name around upthread, but it's of course entirely possible that the comparison isn't apt!
I can't speak to Posey's defensive reputation as a catcher in college - I know he moved from SS to C in college but that's it. Posey once had a .566 OBP and an .879 SLG for a full season in D1 NCAA. That's crazy and beats Davis's best single season marks in those categories (.482/.663) by a solid margin. I don't know why Posey's name is associated with Davis and that's going unchallenged. Davis may not stick at C and isn't quite the offensive contributor at the NCAA level that Posey was. If there's a reason they're being compared that I'm unaware of I'd love to hear it. I'm open to warming up to Davis.
I wouldn't say it's going unchallenged. If you read the discussion upthread, there were early indications that Davis was a plus defender at C to go with his plus bat leading to a description of him as a "90% Buster Posey" (or something to that effect) but subsequent reports were lower on his defense, even if everyone agrees he throws well.

See post 211 et seq.
 

amRadio

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Feb 7, 2019
620
Good for Pirates fans. I was worried they would go deep under slot. Mayer will be a bright spot in the farm for them.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
42,537
The TV draft coverage is way overproduced.

‘Get excited fans, you may see 5 percent of these guys in 2-5 years or so!’
I almost never watch but I do remember lots of inane talk about how X player is good for Y team because their current MLB player at that position is a FA in 2 years as if the two are even remotely connected.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Sep 21, 2007
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This in a nutshell is why the mlb draft will never be anything like the nfl or nba draft.
I do recall some of the early versions of the televised MLB draft coverage being lower key than this. I don’t think they need to televise this thing past 1-2 rounds at all, but I am struck by how they have mascots, fans, etc, drowning out the analyst panel. I have not watched the first round coverage in a few years, so maybe I am just late to the party.
 

Ale Xander

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Oct 31, 2013
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What is the reason for no trades, always forget to ask? Don’t usually pay attention as Red Sox usually don’t pick this high
 

RoDaddy

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Jun 19, 2002
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Albany area, NY
Here we go. I want a bat. Leiter's very good and all but his 5'11"-6'0" size may very well wear down over the course of a season and end up as a middle of the rotation guy