Okay, I don't know this guy very well, but his highlight reel is awesome (and not in that "every highlight reel looks good" kind of way).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKcIrMaOWeE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKcIrMaOWeE
He's going to score more points in the NBA than Grant and Romeo combined.Carsen Edwards gives me some serious discount Lou Will vibes
He was insane that game. He was 5’ behind line on some.https://twitter.com/taylorcsnow/status/1141919404386598912
THis is his game against UVA, the big wing they put on him that he just Steph Curry's out of existence is Defensive player of the year and #4 draft pick DeAndre Hunter
Yeah, my point is more that IT is just such a freak outlier in height that even smurfs aren't really comparable to him.It’s because he’s not really 6’1”. He’s barely 6’ in his platform sneakers. Don’t get me wrong, I love him at 33 and think he’ll be a good backup PG for the life of the deal. But he’s still smurfy.
Yeah, I like the overall skill level. It won’t be like with Jaylen where you’re waiting 2+ years to see whether he can dribble (and I’m higher on Jaylen than most here).I thought this dude was a lefty after seeing his first few sick dunks. Then he pulls up for a three and shoots with his right hand.
Yeah, people are making way too big a deal about this imo. There are plenty of comps who have been passable to good defenders at his wingspan+standing reach.Edwards did the combine twice, both times came in at 6.025" 199 with a pretty nice 6'6" wingspan. Finding comps is actually a little hard for his body.
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Ty Lawson, Patty Mills are heigh comps, but his wingspan blows them away
2007-8 had an interesting comp... Mike Conley, who is 0.5" taller, but has about 0.5" less wingspan and was 20+ pounds lighter
2005-6 had an Ray Felton, exact same height and weight, but shorter wingspan
So we'll see how he turns out, but maybe some potential to be not bad defensively in that huge wingspan.
Rajon Rondo is 6'1" with a reported 6'9" (!) wingspan.Edwards did the combine twice, both times came in at 6.025" 199 with a pretty nice 6'6" wingspan. Finding comps is actually a little hard for his body.
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Ty Lawson, Patty Mills are heigh comps, but his wingspan blows them away
2007-8 had an interesting comp... Mike Conley, who is 0.5" taller, but has about 0.5" less wingspan and was 20+ pounds lighter
2005-6 had an Ray Felton, exact same height and weight, but shorter wingspan
So we'll see how he turns out, but maybe some potential to be not bad defensively in that huge wingspan.
To be honest I’m glad to hear he was a chucker. He shot an adequate but not too exciting 37% from 3 with a huge sample size in his college career. Last year he was 36% on over 10 per game. Those percentages on mostly open “good” shots aren’t too hot. But if he’s doing that while taking lots of bad shots and being forced to carry the offense, that’s pretty good.Watched a lot of him in the Big 10. To me he’s a chucker that takes a lot of bad shots. He shot Purdue out of some games last year. When he’s on he’s awesome. When he’s off his shot selection gets worse. Fine pick at 33 I guess.
His sophomore year under slightly less usage, yet still a sizable sample, he shot 40.5% from three. That seems promising. And his FT% is pretty good at 81.7%.To be honest I’m glad to hear he was a chucker. He shot an adequate but not too exciting 37% from 3 with a huge sample size in his college career. Last year he was 36% on over 10 per game. Those percentages on mostly open “good” shots aren’t too hot. But if he’s doing that while taking lots of bad shots and being forced to carry the offense, that’s pretty good.
In the NBA as a second round pick, surely he knows he will have to change his shot selection so I’m not worried about having to fix that. 82% FT career is solid, another good indicator. He won’t amount to much in the NBA unless he’s an above average 3 point shooter so I’m glad to hear his percentages were deflated by poor shot selection.
I was reading the article linked below and remembered your comment here.To be honest I’m glad to hear he was a chucker. He shot an adequate but not too exciting 37% from 3 with a huge sample size in his college career. Last year he was 36% on over 10 per game. Those percentages on mostly open “good” shots aren’t too hot. But if he’s doing that while taking lots of bad shots and being forced to carry the offense, that’s pretty good.
https://www.celticsblog.com/2019/6/21/18700402/boston-celtics-initial-thoughts-on-romeo-langford-grant-williams-carsen-edwardsIn his junior season, Edwards played an insane role on a creation-starved Purdue team. He was encouraged to shoot. A lot. And a lot of super difficult attempts. Despite all that, despite taking a staggering 237 off-the-dribble jumpers in the half court, he finished in the 71st percentile in efficiency on those shots.
Yep. I mentioned this in the draft thread, but here’s a wordier explanation from one of the scouting reports linked earlier:To be honest I’m glad to hear he was a chucker. He shot an adequate but not too exciting 37% from 3 with a huge sample size in his college career. Last year he was 36% on over 10 per game. Those percentages on mostly open “good” shots aren’t too hot. But if he’s doing that while taking lots of bad shots and being forced to carry the offense, that’s pretty good.
In the NBA as a second round pick, surely he knows he will have to change his shot selection so I’m not worried about having to fix that. 82% FT career is solid, another good indicator. He won’t amount to much in the NBA unless he’s an above average 3 point shooter so I’m glad to hear his percentages were deflated by poor shot selection.
not really,. I mean Salim Stoudamire was a better shooter at a similar size and he washed out pretty quickly.Doesn't the shot alone give him a floor of NBA rotation player/scorer, even if that is also his ceiling?
To be fair, Stoudamire was drafted in 2005 and last played in 2008; the league in general has changed a bit since then, the value of shooting in particular.not really,. I mean Salim Stoudamire was a better shooter at a similar size and he washed out pretty quickly.
Better shooter in what sense? I feel like post-Steph that means something different.not really,. I mean Salim Stoudamire was a better shooter at a similar size and he washed out pretty quickly.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/salim-stoudamire-1.htmlBetter shooter in what sense? I feel like post-Steph that means something different.
You mean CBA All-Star Jimmer Fredette?!?Jimmer Fredette is a more recent example.
The big difference in their lines is that Stoudamire shot higher percentages and was more efficient, while Edwards had a DRAMATICALLY higher usage rate. Edwards’ lowest usage was above Stoudamire’s highest and was overall 10% higher, which is a big deal. One guy was a lead guard, the other was basically the single option and shot creator on his team.https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/salim-stoudamire-1.html
He was lights out, and like Edwards, not a true PG, but IIRC, Carsen plays “bigger”, is better at getting to the rim (and line) and better on D. And as you note, shooting is more of a premium now. But an interesting comp nevertheless, and one that should bring some caution. Small SGs have to be really, really good at scoring.
His usage was basically unprecedented for a major college program. I looked at a bunch of recent-ish NBA guys in college, and the closest I found, in terms of size and shooting volume are Jannero Pargo at Arkansas, JJ Barea at Northeaster, and Yogi Farrell at Indiana. And they're not that close, except for Barea, who was also averaging 8.3 assists/game as a senior, though Northeastern's a long way from the Big Ten. He’s a rare dude. Guys that size are typically primarily distributors. Even IT who has generational bucket-getting chops averaged over 6 assist/game in his last year at Washington, as opposed to Edwards’ 2.9.The big difference in their lines is that Stoudamire shot higher percentages and was more efficient, while Edwards had a DRAMATICALLY higher usage rate. Edwards’ lowest usage was above Stoudamire’s highest and was overall 10% higher, which is a big deal. One guy was a lead guard, the other was basically the single option and shot creator on his team.
The other big difference is that the game has changed a lot in the 15 years between them, so I would imagine you would see major differences in shot selection and creation between the two of them. The deep three wasn’t a routine thing back then, for example, or shooting in traffic generally the way Edwards does.
It isn't a perfect match, but it was more to point out that there really isn't a "his floor is NBA rotation player" skill out there. The floor for draft picks is out of the league in 3 years, and there isn't really any single skill that can keep you in the league if you aren't at least decent at most else, Stoudamire was an amazing shooter in college, and even a very good one in the pros. His defense was so horrid he bounced out, Jimmer is a decent example too, he could score in the NBA, but nothing else, so off to China he went. I think Edwards is probably going to be an NBA rotation player, but it definitely isn't his floor.The big difference in their lines is that Stoudamire shot higher percentages and was more efficient, while Edwards had a DRAMATICALLY higher usage rate. Edwards’ lowest usage was above Stoudamire’s highest and was overall 10% higher, which is a big deal. One guy was a lead guard, the other was basically the single option and shot creator on his team.
The other big difference is that the game has changed a lot in the 15 years between them, so I would imagine you would see major differences in shot selection and creation between the two of them. The deep three wasn’t a routine thing back then, for example, or shooting in traffic generally the way Edwards does.
Yes, Waters is almost certainly headed for Portland. But he's fun to watch.I feel Waters is going to have to prove a lot to get a bench spot.
I'd be surprised if both Edwards and Waters end up on the roster.As it stands, he is the backup PG to Smart? I feel Waters is going to have to prove a lot to get a bench spot.
Fair enough, I agree almost no one is a sure thing. But he definitely seems like someone who has strong odds of being able to score in the NBA, much longer odds of doing much else.It isn't a perfect match, but it was more to point out that there really isn't a "his floor is NBA rotation player" skill out there. The floor for draft picks is out of the league in 3 years, and there isn't really any single skill that can keep you in the league if you aren't at least decent at most else, Stoudamire was an amazing shooter in college, and even a very good one in the pros. His defense was so horrid he bounced out, Jimmer is a decent example too, he could score in the NBA, but nothing else, so off to China he went. I think Edwards is probably going to be an NBA rotation player, but it definitely isn't his floor.
^^ this is where I am at. Looking at his highlights and reading his scouting report he has the real opportunity to be successful with the celtics. There are enough folks on this team that cna move the ball and which they can run offense through that they will not need carsen for that. I am sure brad will try and pick favorable matchups. And I am not so sure he is as small as people are portraying him as, 6 feet decent wingspan, seems to be getting stronger - but already at a decent weight. I think he is going to be fun!I'm not really bullish on his ability to run an offense full time, but as a microwave bench scorer, or more of a pure 2 guard next to Smart, he'll be fun.
Well, it’s also because most players have uninspiring careers.It's not an inspiring list, but that's just due to the nature of comps. If you look at the comps for other players, basically everyone other than Zion has fringe rotation guys as comps.
This is what I like about the boom bust formulation. The variance is everything in these projections.Yeah - that's what I meant by the nature of comps. Most draft picks don't work out, so their best comps tend to be pretty awful.
is prime IT4 his ceiling?Looking forward to Edwards lighting up Summer League. Hoping for him to be a JJ Barea type as his floor.