basiclly for denver they have to win last 2 games no matther what but i do have bad news for denver haters
assume a week 16 loss to pitt
if Balt loses in week 17 to ciny denver only has to win 1 of final 3 games
basiclly for denver they have to win last 2 games no matther what but i do have bad news for denver haters
assume a week 16 loss to pitt
if Balt loses in week 17 to ciny denver only has to win 1 of final 3 games
No I mean Brandon Marshall and Todd Davis. They didn't practice today and are apparent long shots to play.u mean danny t and jackson your wheel routes to white lewis scare me and u will have a few open up the middle routes but blomt must get 100 y and 2 td for u to win and u must build a 14-21 pt lead like last week
can someone look up a ser where denver miami and balt are 8-8 who get in or all 3 at 9-7 or den mia 10-6
oh wow no woder everyone counting NE as a lossNo I mean Brandon Marshall and Todd Davis. They didn't practice today and are apparent long shots to play.
not my words a guy named frenchfredsorry for all the posts here is what i meant with help
Before anyone says I'm crazy, you should know that it's a plausible scenario, even if unlikely.
For that to happen, we will need stars to align the right way:
You will note that options 2 and 3 are connected, just like options 4 and 5 which is a good thing going for us.
- Miami (8-5) will need to go 1-2 or 0-3 playing @JETS, @Buffalo, vsPats --> My bet: 1-2 with loses to the Jets and Pats
- Ravens (7-6) will need to go 1-2 or 0-3 playing vsEagles, @Pitts, @Cinci --> My bet 1-2 with loses to Pitts and Cinci
- If the Ravens go 2-1 or 3-0, we need Pitts (8-5) to go 0-3 playing @Cinci, vsRavens, vsBrowns --> my bet they go 3-0 and help us in the meantime
- Titans (7-6) go 1-2 or 0-3 playing @Chiefs, @Jags, vsTexans --> My bet 2-1 with wins over Jags and Texans, 3-0 would be even better for us
- Texans (7-6) go 2-1 (with Titans 3-0) or 1-2 playing vsJags, vsCinci, @Titans --> my bet Texans fold under pressure and ends the year with 3 strait loses (yes even the Jags)
If I'm not mistaken, Bills, Colts, Cinci and Chargers are out of contention for that 6th seed if we win 1 game... Bills and Cinci can actively help us get the 6th seed, so don't forget to rout for them when they play against one of the teams above (games are highlighted in bold)...
Of course going 2-1 would be much better and a safer option:
In this scenario, Titans and Houston would neutralize each other in week 17, so they would not affect our standing... This scenario could give us the 5th seed if raiders go 0-3 in the meantime...
- Miami (8-5) will need to go 2-1 or less, highly probable
- Ravens (7-6) will need to go 2-1 or less, highly probable, and if not Pitts (8-5) will need to go 1-2, which is unlikely so root for Pitts and Cinci to beat the Ravens
The safest scenario that guarantees us a place in the playoffs is 3-0 to end the year (I wouldn't bet a dollar on it through). It could also make us the AFC number 1 seed if the raiders go 1-2, the Chiefs go 0-3, the Pats go 0-3 and the Steelers go 2-1, highly improbable but would be so sweet...
Hope you enjoyed those predictions/scenarios, and let me know if I made a mistake somewhere...
PS: The situation is not so bad as we still control our destiny, and even a loss to the Pats is not the end of the world...
sorry for all the posts here is what i meant with help
Before anyone says I'm crazy, you should know that it's a plausible scenario, even if unlikely.
For that to happen, we will need stars to align the right way:
You will note that options 2 and 3 are connected, just like options 4 and 5 which is a good thing going for us.
- Miami (8-5) will need to go 1-2 or 0-3 playing @JETS, @Buffalo, vsPats --> My bet: 1-2 with loses to the Jets and Pats
- Ravens (7-6) will need to go 1-2 or 0-3 playing vsEagles, @Pitts, @Cinci --> My bet 1-2 with loses to Pitts and Cinci
- If the Ravens go 2-1 or 3-0, we need Pitts (8-5) to go 0-3 playing @Cinci, vsRavens, vsBrowns --> my bet they go 3-0 and help us in the meantime
- Titans (7-6) go 1-2 or 0-3 playing @Chiefs, @Jags, vsTexans --> My bet 2-1 with wins over Jags and Texans, 3-0 would be even better for us
- Texans (7-6) go 2-1 (with Titans 3-0) or 1-2 playing vsJags, vsCinci, @Titans --> my bet Texans fold under pressure and ends the year with 3 strait loses (yes even the Jags)
If I'm not mistaken, Bills, Colts, Cinci and Chargers are out of contention for that 6th seed if we win 1 game... Bills and Cinci can actively help us get the 6th seed, so don't forget to rout for them when they play against one of the teams above (games are highlighted in bold)...
Of course going 2-1 would be much better and a safer option:
In this scenario, Titans and Houston would neutralize each other in week 17, so they would not affect our standing... This scenario could give us the 5th seed if raiders go 0-3 in the meantime...
- Miami (8-5) will need to go 2-1 or less, highly probable
- Ravens (7-6) will need to go 2-1 or less, highly probable, and if not Pitts (8-5) will need to go 1-2, which is unlikely so root for Pitts and Cinci to beat the Ravens
The safest scenario that guarantees us a place in the playoffs is 3-0 to end the year (I wouldn't bet a dollar on it through). It could also make us the AFC number 1 seed if the raiders go 1-2, the Chiefs go 0-3, the Pats go 0-3 and the Steelers go 2-1, highly improbable but would be so sweet...
Hope you enjoyed those predictions/scenarios, and let me know if I made a mistake somewhere...
PS: The situation is not so bad as we still control our destiny, and even a loss to the Pats is not the end of the world...
Depends what happens on the 24th, but assuming Buffalo wins to make head-to-head 1-1, but under that assumption yes, you're right, since they're from the same division, so you use the divisional tiebreakers to break that tie. Given 1-4 would be still a standstill, the 5th tiebreaker for divisions is strength of victory, then schedule strength, followed by best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, and so on.If Buffalo and Miami finish 9-7, is strength of victory going to be the tiebreaker? They would have the same AFCE and AFC record. Common opponents is the same.
Yes, and the SOV race is close. Under the assumption that Buffalo wins out and Miami loses to NE so that both finish 9-7 Buffalo has a 2.5 win advantage in SOV. There are 9 relevant games left for their relative SOV total to change. In Week 16 Buffalo can gain SOV from NE beating NYJ, CIN over HOU and JAX over TEN whilst MIA gains from NYJ over NE, PIT over BAL and SDC over CLE. In Week 17 Buffalo improves with CIN over BAL and JAX over IND whilst MIA gains with PIT over CLE and SDC over KCC.Depends what happens on the 24th, but assuming Buffalo wins to make head-to-head 1-1, but under that assumption yes, you're right, since they're from the same division, so you use the divisional tiebreakers to break that tie. Given 1-4 would be still a standstill, the 5th tiebreaker for divisions is strength of victory, then schedule strength, followed by best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, and so on.
By my count KC IS out of the 1-seed race. If KC wins out and NE loses out both would finish 12-4 and 9-3 in the AFC so the tie-breaker would be common opponents (NYJ, Pit, Hou and Den). With a loss v NYJ this week as part of the Pats losing out, they'd finish 4-1 against that group whilst the Chiefs have already lost to Hou and Pit so would finish 3-2 (with the winning out including a 2nd win over Den).Pats win homefield with 2 wins or 1 win and an Oakland loss so that's cleared up. KC all but out of the one seed race
Steelers win the north with win next week
Texans win the south with a win on New Years
Except if the Pats lose out, Oak goes 1-1 and KC goes 2-0 we still get the 1 seed because KC will win their division (right?).By my count KC IS out of the 1-seed race. If KC wins out and NE loses out both would finish 12-4 and 9-3 in the AFC so the tie-breaker would be common opponents (NYJ, Pit, Hou and Den). With a loss v NYJ this week as part of the Pats losing out, they'd finish 4-1 against that group whilst the Chiefs have already lost to Hou and Pit so would finish 3-2 (with the winning out including a 2nd win over Den).
Also vis-a-vis Oakland the Pats essentially have a 'magic number' of 2: any combination of Pats wins (or draws) and Oak losses (or draws) totalling 2 would give NE the #1 seed (i.e. what you said + the scenario where both teams lose both their remaining games)
Yes, and the SOV race is close. Under the assumption that Buffalo wins out and Miami loses to NE so that both finish 9-7 Buffalo has a 2.5 win advantage in SOV. There are 9 relevant games left for their relative SOV total to change. In Week 16 Buffalo can gain SOV from NE beating NYJ, CIN over HOU and JAX over TEN whilst MIA gains from NYJ over NE, PIT over BAL and SDC over CLE. In Week 17 Buffalo improves with CIN over BAL and JAX over IND whilst MIA gains with PIT over CLE and SDC over KCC.
Taking the expected win %'ages from 538.com for those games https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo Miami would only be expected to narrow their defecit by 1/3 of a game, BUT if NE were to lose to the Jets (NE is 90% likely to win that one) the expected SOVs become a virtual dead heat (Buf favoured by 0.37 games)!
Correct. In that case KC wins on the division on HTH sweep of Oakland and then loses the #1 tie-breaker to NE on common opponents.Except if the Pats lose out, Oak goes 1-1 and KC goes 2-0 we still get the 1 seed because KC will win their division (right?).
Let me take a stab at this.The wild card scenarios are too complicated at this point.
If the two games have any impact on each other they will move them to 4PM to align them. If Oakland beats Indy at home next week, you can be certain the Pats game will be moved to 4 PM. The only caveat is that NBC could conceivably move one of the games to Sunday night, but they wouldn't do that in the scenario I outlined, because one game earlier in the day could make the primetime game pointless. They are likely to have two week 17 winner take all / loser goes home games to chose from in Green Bay - Detroit and Houston Tennessee and one of those (the GB game, I imagine) will be in the Sunday night Slot.As of now the Pats game is at 1, Oakland game is at 4, so hard to see how the Pats can sit anyone unless Im missing something.
I don't think there are Sunday night or Monday night games in Week 17. No team should have shorter week (beyond a 4:25 game) heading into postseason.The only caveat is that NBC could conceivably move one of the games to Sunday night, but they wouldn't do that in the scenario I outlined, because one game earlier in the day could make the primetime game pointless. They are likely to have two week 17 winner take all / loser goes home games to chose from in Green Bay - Detroit and Houston Tennessee and one of those (the GB game, I imagine) will be in the Sunday night Slot.
They didnt align the Pats and Broncos games last year with the same scenario. I wrote "as of now" to cover the possibility they move the game, but its not a sure thing if history is our guide.If the two games have any impact on each other they will move them to 4PM to align them.
In Week 17, in order to ensure a Sunday night game with playoff implications, the decision to move the start time may be made on six days notice
Agreed. Has to be GB/DET.I bet it will be GB-Detroit for the division. Slight chance of Houston-Tennessee for the division.
NFL.com and CBSsports.com both have Buffalo listed as not-yet eliminated. I'm guessing they haven't yet been updated for yesterday's games? I couldn't get them in using the ESPN playoff machine. The best they could do would be to tie MIA for the 2nd wild card at 9-7, but it seems MIA always wins the tiebreaker. I even made all of their non-common wins lose for MIA and win for BUF in weeks 16-17, but it didn't matter.Let me take a stab at this.
(snip)
Buffalo essentially needs everyone to 8-8 to get in.
(snip)
In the past, the NFL has moved game times so as not to give an unfair advantage to a team. In this case I think they will move the Pats game to 4pm. That way both teams have to play it honest.As of now the Pats game is at 1, Oakland game is at 4, so hard to see how the Pats can sit anyone unless Im missing something.
Yeah, either ESPN's playoff machine is wrong, the multiple sites saying the Bills are still in it are wrong, or there is some crazy scenario I'm missing.Edit: looks wrong.
I've wasted way too much time this afternoon on this. My vote is that the ESPN Playoff Machine is wrong somewhere in the tie breakers.Yeah, either ESPN's playoff machine is wrong, the multiple sites saying the Bills are still in it are wrong, or there is some crazy scenario I'm missing.
I tried too. The machine is usually reliable. I think the Bills are done.Yeah, either ESPN's playoff machine is wrong, the multiple sites saying the Bills are still in it are wrong, or there is some crazy scenario I'm missing.
Ernie Adams was spotted leaving Foxboro in a DeLorean at 88 mph; he will return just before game time to tell Belichick if he can rest the stars.In the past, the NFL has moved game times so as not to give an unfair advantage to a team. In this case I think they will move the Pats game to 4pm. That way both teams have to play it honest.
I wrote it out (like dbn did) - I think ESPN is wrong. The Bills have a 7.5 win lead over Miami in SoV if everything goes perfectly.I tried too. The machine is usually reliable. I think the Bills are done.
Using 538's tool, Buffalo gets in if Miami, Denver and Baltimore lose out, and Houston and Tennessee lose next week. So not done, but a huge longshot.I tried too. The machine is usually reliable. I think the Bills are done.
I don't know -- given that the Steelers beat the Chiefs 43-14 earlier this season and were ranked ahead of the Chiefs in DVOA going into this week (4th to their 5th) I think you could make the case either way on which team is more favorable.While I absolutely want New England to have the number 1 seed and nothing is a given and every playoff team is tough, it seems to me that it's likely that the 2-seed will have a more favorable divisional round opponent (i.e.Pittsburgh/Baltimore) than the 1 seed (i.e. Chiefs).
Last year the machine was wrong as well with elaborate scenarios. It doesn't have tie breaks right.I tried too. The machine is usually reliable. I think the Bills are done.
Minor point but there's no such thing as a 5-way tie-breaker scenario. The NFL procedure is to first rank each team within its division and then compare only the top teams from each division with a given record to each other. In your example that would mean Buffalo and Miami would be compared to each other first (which would go down to SOV which favours Buf at the moment but could swing to Mia depending on who wins the NEP-NYJ game) and then whoever emerges gets compared to Pit/Bal loser, Hou and Den.Let me take a stab at this.
-KC or Oakland is the 5 seed.
-I refuse to acknowledge that Cleveland could beat Pittsburgh.
-I think the 6 seed scenarios can be summarized thusly:
11 Wins - Only Miami can get here by winning out. They would still be the 6 seed due to losing the SoV tiebreaker with Oak or KC
10 Wins - Pittsburgh would be ahead of Miami and Denver with 8 conference wins, to get here they would beat Cleveland and lose to Baltimore. If it is Miami Vs Denver with both sitting on 7 conference wins (i.e Pittsburgh wins the North, Denver wins both and Miami splits), I think Denver would get the SoV tiebreaker over Miami.
9 Wins - Five way tie between Pitt/Balt loser, Houston, Denver, Buffalo and Miami would go to the Ravens or Steelers with their 8 conference wins at that point. Houston would be next at 9-7 with 7 conference wins. Then Miami v. Denver at 9-7 would go to the Phish with one extra conference win. Buffalo essentially needs everyone to 8-8 to get in.
Seems likely that Pittsburgh will be the #3 seed, and will have a reasonable chance of beating whomever the #6 is, whether that be Miami or Baltimore or Denver. Pittsburgh is hardly a terrifying team, but I'd rather play the Chiefs or Titans or Texans in the Divisional round. Not a slam dunk choice, but if I had to pick...I don't know -- given that the Steelers beat the Chiefs 43-14 earlier this season and were ranked ahead of the Chiefs in DVOA going into this week (4th to their 5th) I think you could make the case either way on which team is more favorable.
Overall I think it would be better to play Oakland in Foxboro than Oakland, and I'm not sure there's too much more to be gained from the #1 vs. the #2.