AFC Playoffs into December

[uk_sox_fan]

Honest question: what's wrong with us that we spent as much time and effort as we just did to figure out what, if any, path to the playoffs are held by the 2016/17 Buffalo Bills? Seriously, I could have been out volunteering, or finishing The Sound and the Fury, or catching up on episodes of Westworld.

But figuring out things like Buffalo's playoff chances are the very reason for our existence!

Here's the definitive book on Buffalo:
1st off they need to win out and have Miami lose out so they both finish 9-7/1-1/3-3/7-5/6-6 so the tiebreaker for 2nd in the AFCE goes to SOV.

Required games to get there:
Wk 16: BUF/mia
Wk 17: nep/MIA, buf/NYJ

This gives them:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). (both 1-1)
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. (both 3-3)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. (both 7-5 vs NE, NYJ, Pit, Bal, Cin, Cle, Sea, Ari, LA and SF)
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. (both 6-6)
5. Strength of victory.

At this point they would both have victories vs each other, NYJ, CLE, ARI, LA and SF. BUF would also have wins against NE, Cin and Jax whilst MIA would have wins against NYJ, Pit and SD. Currently, Buffalo's 3 have a combined record of 19-22-1 vs Miami's of 18-24. But the two required games above for Week 17 necessitate one more win for NE and a loss for NYJ so the current totals are 20-22-1 vs 18-25, a 2.5 game advantage for Buffalo.

The remaining 9 games relevant to SOV are:
Week 16: NEP v nyj, HOU v cin, JAX v ten, CLE v sdc, PIT v bal
Week 17: IND v jax, PIT v cle, SDC v kcc, CIN v bal

For reasons I'll get into later, either cin must beat HOU or JAX must beat ten (or both) in Wk16 for BUF to have a chance so they will pick up at least 1 game there. Additionally, Baltimore must lose out (also addressed below) so each gains another win there. That means Buffalo's SOV against its 3 teams will be 22.5 to 25.5 wins vs Miami's 19 to 23 wins. In other words all 7 of the remaining games must go Miami's way to prevent Buffalo from advancing as the AFC East's 9-7 team.

i.e. as long as Buf beats Mia and NYJ and Mia loses to NE, the only way Buf doesn't get the 2nd place slot in the East and a shot at the #6 seed is if all of the following happen:
Week 16: nyj/NEP, sdc/CLE and at least 1 of (HOU/cin or ten/JAX)
Week 17: IND/jax, PIT/cle, SDC/kcc

So Buf makes it into the pool of other potential 9-7 teams for the final wild card (KCC/OAK non-division winner gets the 1st WC). Now it gets harder for the poor dears...

They can't win any tie-breaker with an AFC North team since both Pit (9-5) and Bal (8-6) already have 7 conference wins. Since if Pit were to lose out they would be 9-7, this means Buf needs Pit to win the division and Bal to lose out (or a loss and a draw).

It's a bit more complicated vs the AFC South teams but Buffalo doesn't fare well against any team that might finish 9-7 there. Hou is the easiest to explain - they are 8-6 and 6-4 in the AFC so by going 1-1 against Cin and @Ten to get to 9-7 they'd finish with a 7-5 conf record and be ahead. So they either need to win the division or lose out and finish 8-8.

Ten is also 8-6 but are 5-5 in the AFC so they could finish 9-7 / 6-6 as a 2nd place team in the AFCS. The problem there is if they finish 9-7 by beating Jax this weekend they would be 4-1 vs common opponents (Mia(W), Cle(W), Jax(WW), Oak(L)) vs the Bills 3-2 (Mia(LW), Cle(W), Jax(W), Oak(L)) but even if it skipped common opponents because of a 3-way tie at 9-7 with Denver (need to have min. of 4 common opponents - there would only be 2) or if Ten got to 9-7 by losing to Jax and beating Hou, they would still be miles ahead of Buf on SOV (mostly because the NFC Central have way more wins than the NFC West - esp. since we don't count Sea since the Bills lost that one. The other 3 NFCW teams are a combined 10-31-1). Buf having Cle (0-14) and Jax (2-12) in their vanquished column doesn't help.

Similarly, Buf would lose both a multi- and a 2-way tie to Indy if they were to beat Oak and Jax and finish 9-7. They too would be 6-6 in conference and they common opponents for a 2-way would be (NYJ(W), Pit(L), Jax(LW) and Oak(W)) for 3-2 whilst the Bills would be 2-3 with losses to NYJ, Pit and Oak. For the same reasons as Ten, Indy's SOV is uncatchable for the Bills.

All of this means that Buf can't have the 2nd place team in the South finish 9-7. Since the two 8-6 teams play each other in Week 17, that means that whomever will eventually lose that match must also lose in week 16 (both losing would be fine). Finally, Indy must lose one or both of their remaining games (@Oak and v Jax).

That leaves Denver (8-6) as the only other possible 9-7 team. Buffalo doesn't match up with them if it comes down to SOV, but if it's just a two-way tie (which it must be since they can't have a AFCS or AFCN team at 9-7 per above) then they first have common opponents to decide it. For Buf and Den the CO's are NE, Cin, Jax and Oak. Buffalo is 3-2 vs this bunch whilst Den only gets to 3-2 if they beat Oak at home in week 17. Thus oak/DEN becomes another required game for Buf and the Den@KC matchup is irrelevant (if Den loses they're 8-8 - if they win they lose the common opp breaker anyways).

So for Buffalo the path to the playoffs is now clear(ish). The following games are required:
Week 16..............Week 17
BUF/mia...............buf/NYJ
PIT/bal..................CIN/bal
(either JAX/ten......hou @ TEN loser must have lost wk16
or cin/HOU).........oak/DEN
(either OAK/ind or jax/IND)
.............................nep/MIA

and one of:
NEP/nyj.................cle/PIT
CLE/sdc.................kcc/SDC
...............................the jax/IND game above
both of the JAC / cin games above

Simple really.

 

[joe dokes]

But figuring out things like Buffalo's playoff chances are the very reason for our existence!

Here's the definitive book on Buffalo:

[snippus maximus]

Simple really.

I'd pay a dollar to see you explain that to Bills fans in the parking lot Sunday.

 

[Phil Plantier]

Late contender for post of 2016. Well done.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

I've got the next best thing - my father-in-law from Buffalo is over here for Christmas.

Explaining it hasn't gone too well btw...

 

[uk_sox_fan]

But the 'nice' thing for Buffalo fans is that there's a path to the playoffs that involves just one upset each week - and only small upsets at that. These are the times and 538.com game odds for one of the scenarios that gets Buffalo in:
Week 16
NEP/nyj Sat 1pm (90%)
BUF/mia Sat 1pm (59%)
OAK/ind Sat 4pm (67%)
cin/HOU Sat 8:30pm (43%) <--- Texans going with Tom Savage in his 1st NFL start at QB

PIT/bal Sun 4:30pm (73%)

Week 17
nep/MIA Sun 1pm (66%)
buf/NYJ Sun 1pm (60%)
CIN/bal Sun 1pm (58%)
TEN/hou Sun 1pm (54%)
oak/DEN Sun 4:30pm (43%)

So if all games but one (where the favourite has a newbie QB from Rutgers who earned the optimism of Texans fans by 'proving' himself in 3 quarters of competence against the 2-12 Jaguars last week) goes to the favourite then they just need the Raiders (who hopefully will be playing for the division and a bye) the pull off a slight upset at Mile High in the final game of the year.

I'm a believer!

 

[phenweigh]

538 gives Buffalo a 1% chance of making the playoffs, but you had more fun working through the details!

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Minor point but there's no such thing as a 5-way tie-breaker scenario. The NFL procedure is to first rank each team within its division and then compare only the top teams from each division with a given record to each other. In your example that would mean Buffalo and Miami would be compared to each other first (which would go down to SOV which favours Buf at the moment but could swing to Mia depending on who wins the NEP-NYJ game) and then whoever emerges gets compared to Pit/Bal loser, Hou and Den.

Hey, thank you for this. This is why I love this place.

So, I think this is a good thing for Denver. If somehow Denver, Miami & Buffalo wind up at 9-7 (Denver splits, Miami loses out, Buffalo wins out, Ravens lose out, one of Houston/Tennessee lose out) Then Miami would be eliminated and Denver would likely win the SOV tiebreaker with Buffalo.

* EDIT : As UK Sox Fan pointed out above, Denver would have to split by losing to KC and beating Oakland to win the tie breaker by SOV after CO was a 3-2 tie. If Denver beats KC, but loses to Oakland, then Buffalo wins the tie breaker by CO.

What is interesting with these SOV tiebreakers is that it is really the NFC South being better than the NFC West this year that is giving the real SOV weight to the AFC West teams. The AFC South (west is playing them) and the AFC North (East is playing them) have been relatively even but the suck that is the 9ers and Rams is causing the AFC East to lag behind the West teams in SOV.

 

[mwonow]

You KNOW Rex will be talking up the "still alive in Week 16!" thing as soon as he's actually eliminated.

If he was in Indy, he'd already be planning the "Alive until the end in 2016!" banner

 

[koufax32]

In the context of the Carr injury I can't think of a logical reason to not treat next week like preseason game 4.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Potential QBs in AFC playoffs after Brady.

Big Ben/Joe Flacco
Matt McGloin
Tom Savage
Alex Smith
Trevor Siemien/Matt Moore

 

[shawnrbu]

Potential QBs in AFC playoffs after Brady.

Big Ben/Joe Flacco
Matt McGloin
Tom Savage
Alex Smith
Trevor Siemien/Matt Moore

Don't forget Matt Cassel!

 

[DeadlySplitter]

In the context of the Carr injury I can't think of a logical reason to not treat next week like preseason game 4.

kinda depends on tomorrow's DEN-KC game.

If KC wins, Denver is 8-7 and officially out of the playoffs, while KC would move to 11-4. Miami is 10-5... I haven't done the potential tiebreaker math but I feel like Miami may be locked into the 6 seed. We may be able to treat it like a preseason game and still win at that point. Oakland would need to win or tie to clinch the division with KC down their necks as well.

If Denver wins, Miami still needs to win or tie to get in. Conversely, Oakland will have less to play for, having clinched the division, while Denver will have everything to play for (we likely get flexed to 4:25 in this situation).

I think we're rooting for KC tomorrow, all things considered. At the same time with that QB list, going to Oakland against McCloin in the worst-case scenario is nowhere near as bad as last year... yes Oakland's crowd would be insane, but they do not have Denver's defense - we'd get our points and they will struggle now to get theirs.

 

[sodenj5]

If Miami and KC finish with the same record, Miami would be the 5 seed and take the tie breaker based on record vs common opponents.

As a Dolphins fan, I'm rooting hard for KC tomorrow, because I don't want Miami's chances coming down to a must win vs NE while Denver gets the Carr-less Raiders, who may be resting everyone.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I played with the machine a bit. If Denver wins out, KC beats SD, and Pats beat Miami then Miami is out. KC would be the 5 and Denver the 6 based on common games with Miami.

 

[koufax32]

Very distinct possibility for the following to happen:

NE
KC

BAL
HOU
OAK
MIA

Any given Sunday, etc. etc. I like the chances of football season going into February. Worst case scenario is playing either KC or BAL for all the marbles at home after dispatching HOU or OAK at home.

 

[jsinger121]

Very distinct possibility for the following to happen:

NE
KC

BAL
HOU
OAK
MIA

Any given Sunday, etc. etc. I like the chances of football season going into February. Worst case scenario is playing either KC or BAL for all the marbles at home after dispatching HOU or OAK at home.

This would be the perfect playoff scenario for the Pats.

 

[McBride11]

Very distinct possibility for the following to happen:

NE
KC

BAL
HOU
OAK
MIA

Any given Sunday, etc. etc. I like the chances of football season going into February. Worst case scenario is playing either KC or BAL for all the marbles at home after dispatching HOU or OAK at home.

What is that? Pitt loses to Bal and Cle? If Pit loses to Bal and beats Cle they lose the tie breaker to Mia?

 

[koufax32]

What is that? Pitt loses to Bal and Cle? If Pit loses to Bal and beats Cle they lose the tie breaker to Mia?

Everything rides on tomorrow for them. The NYT simulator says that if they lose tomorrow, win next week, with BAL beating Cincy that even the MIA-NE game doesn't matter. I have to say I'm intrigued at the idea of no PIT.

Edit: It actually seems like MIA is in if BAL wins tomorrow no matter what happens next week. Simulator could be wrong but that's what it says.
Also, this is all built on the premise of KC beating DEN tomorrow night too. Not a given obviously.

 

[McBride11]

Everything rides on tomorrow for them. The NYT simulator says that if they lose tomorrow, win next week, with BAL beating Cincy that even the MIA-NE game doesn't matter. I have to say I'm intrigued at the idea of no PIT.

With Carr done, Pitt seems the most potent offense to deal with. Them being out seems nice for the Pats. Although the maligned D has done much better recently.

 

[shawnrbu]

Everything rides on tomorrow for them. The NYT simulator says that if they lose tomorrow, win next week, with BAL beating Cincy that even the MIA-NE game doesn't matter. I have to say I'm intrigued at the idea of no PIT.

A 10-6 Steelers team that does not win the division does well in 3 way or 4 way tiebreakers because of their strong conference record. They lose a head to head tiebreaker with Miami and obviously are out if KC and Miami finish 11-5 (or 10-5-1).

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

With Carr done, Pitt seems the most potent offense to deal with. Them being out seems nice for the Pats. Although the maligned D has done much better recently.

They've played shit offenses, let's not go jerking everyone off just yet.

They've certainly looked good, even against Baltimore, but recent games I don't think have proven this is a SB caliber defense. I'm still uneasy. With Gronk we could shoot to outscore everyone. Unless Floyd can get up to speed and replace Amendola, I think the playoff slate is going to be tough unless the Pats catch it just right.

 

[McBride11]

They've played shit offenses, let's not go jerking everyone off just yet.

They've certainly looked good, even against Baltimore, but recent games I don't think have proven this is a SB caliber defense. I'm still uneasy. With Gronk we could shoot to outscore everyone. Unless Floyd can get up to speed and replace Amendola, I think the playoff slate is going to be tough unless the Pats catch it just right.

I was thinking of adding an * given the recent offenses they have played because I generally agree.

But the options presented have also relatively weak OF by DVOA

Oak - 6 - but now without Carr so who knows where they will be
KC - 13
Mia - 17
Bal - 25
Hou - 31

 

[Ed Hillel]

Shit offenses or not, 3 games without a legit TD allowed on D is incredibly impressive. Denver's offense is more average than shit, too, and that's as tough a place to play as any. Outside of Denver and maybe KC, I'm not sure there's a D I would take over New England's right now. Maybe Seattle, but they are pretty banged up.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Shit offenses or not, 3 games without a legit TD allowed on D is incredibly impressive. Denver's offense is more average than shit, too, and that's as tough a place to play as any. Outside of Denver and maybe KC, I'm not sure there's a D I would take over New England's right now. Maybe Seattle, but they are pretty banged up.

I'm not trying to say they haven't played better lately but there's a handful in the playoff pool I'd take over them and I don't think it's even close that they are better than everyone other than Denver and KC. It's great that they lead the league in points allowed, but they're middle of the pack by the advanced metrics or at least the ones I have access to. Would be Glad to be proven wrong though.

 

[Saints Rest]

Potential QBs in AFC playoffs after Brady.

Big Ben/Joe Flacco
Matt McGloin
Tom Savage
Alex Smith
Trevor Siemien/Matt Moore

Not exactly like 2003, where they played co-MVPs (McNair and Manning) in successive weeks.

 

[LogansDad]

I'm not trying to say they haven't played better lately but there's a handful in the playoff pool I'd take over them and I don't think it's even close that they are better than everyone other than Denver and KC. It's great that they lead the league in points allowed, but they're middle of the pack by the advanced metrics or at least the ones I have access to. Would be Glad to be proven wrong though.

I have to be honest....and I'm not one to normally pull this card on anyone.

But, man, you might want to stop for a few minutes and just enjoy being a Pats fan for a while.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Sarah Barshop ESPN Staff Writer
The Texans' locker room is giddy right now. When the media walked in, players were jumping around in AFC South title hats and taking pictures together.


What ... no varsity jackets?

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I have to be honest....and I'm not one to normally pull this card on anyone.

But, man, you might want to stop for a few minutes and just enjoy being a Pats fan for a while.

I am enjoying being a Pats fan. I'm not, nor never will be, a blind one.

It's great they have held shit offenses to low points. That's genuinely encouraging. Claiming them as one of the top defenses in the league is homerism. Sorry man. I'm not saying they aren't the prohibitive favorite, I'm just saying if you think they are a top two or three defense, maybe watch closer. They're mid tier and certainly good enough to win a SB on a good day, but if you expect them to hold teams to less than ten points in the playoffs you're kidding yourself. And if they meet Dallas at the end they're going to have trouble. That's just pragmatism.

 

[lars10]

I am enjoying being a Pats fan. I'm not, nor never will be, a blind one.

It's great they have held shit offenses to low points. That's genuinely encouraging. Claiming them as one of the top defenses in the league is homerism. Sorry man. I'm not saying they aren't the prohibitive favorite, I'm just saying if you think they are a top two or three defense, maybe watch closer. They're mid tier and certainly good enough to win a SB on a good day, but if you expect them to hold teams to less than ten points in the playoffs you're kidding yourself. And if they meet Dallas at the end they're going to have trouble. That's just pragmatism.

Who is expecting them to do the first? And who wouldn't have trouble with Dallas and their offensive line/ EE and Zac? Plus..if they're playing Dallas they're in the freakin super bowl.

This has been an elite/top defense the last few weeks and you don't have to be homer to say that. The quality of offenses hasn't been good, but they've also completely shut them down to the point of the games virtually never being in doubt.

 

[wilked]

1. Seems pointless to run the scenarios until today's done
2. I don't remember a non-playoff day with only two games and as good a two games as this in a long time

 

[gmogmo]

Does a Steelers win today, essentially clinch the 3 seed for them?

 

[amfox1]

If PIT and HOU tie at 10-6, then the tiebreaker will come down to strength of victory (same conf record, same common game record).

 

[BaseballJones]

With Carr out, does that mean the Pats essentially have the top seed no matter what? I mean, of the four possible outcomes next week (Pats and Raiders win, Pats win Raiders lose, Pats and Raiders lose, and Pats lose Raiders win), only one scenario gives the top seed to Oakland.

But even if that happens, what is the likelihood that Oakland wins their first playoff game without him?

And even if THAT happens, how fearful should New England be going into Oakland to play the Derek Carr-less Raiders?

In other words, for Oakland to get HFA and advance to the SB, they'd have to beat Denver in Denver, win a playoff game at home, and then likely beat the Patriots at home, all without their starting QB.

Not likely.

Any of those things don't happen and it's highly likely that the Patriots are playing in the Super Bowl.

Not trying to count my chickens here... Just trying to be realistic.

 

[phenweigh]

I don't remember a non-playoff day with only two games and as good a two games as this in a long time

Merry Christmas

 

[RedOctober3829]

 

[EricFeczko]

I'm not trying to say they haven't played better lately but there's a handful in the playoff pool I'd take over them and I don't think it's even close that they are better than everyone other than Denver and KC. It's great that they lead the league in points allowed, but they're middle of the pack by the advanced metrics or at least the ones I have access to. Would be Glad to be proven wrong though.

I think you're closer to right than wrong here.
By expected points, the patriots are a top ten defense, but only barely; they are just as far away from the middle of the pack as they are to the top defense.
Splitting this into pass and run components, the patriots have a strong pass defense (2nd in EP, 15th in sack rate, 18th in pick rate, 8th in Y/A) largely on the basis of good secondary coverage that limits big mistakes (5th in TD% allowed).
By expected points, the run defense appears to be much weaker, ranked 12th despite above average efficiency stats.

However, the patriots have played few games against top ranked offenses. By EP, we've played three top ten offenses (Bills twice and the steelers without big ben), three above average (bengals, seahawks, cardinals), one average (dolphins) and eight bottom ten offenses (the browns are the best of them). Five of those games are against the four worst offenses in the league. Counting the big ben injury, we've played 9 of 15 games against crap offenses. As a result, it is hard to tell how good our top ten status really is (the Giants have had to contend with four games against top five offenses in the cowboys and redskins, alongside playing the NFC north like the Patriots).

Then again, such splits may be a fool's errand; 16 games is such a small sample size that factoring in opponent offensive strength may not help much. On the other hand, I find it difficult to argue that the passing defense has been tested much, apart from games against the Cardinals and Bengals.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I'm happy with the direction the D is headed in, but part of where they stand defensive rankings-wise involves playing legitimately poor offenses. Definitely excited to see if the trend continues against more potent teams.

 

[H78]

I'm happy with the direction the D is headed in, but part of where they stand defensive rankings-wise involves playing legitimately poor offenses. Definitely excited to see if the trend continues against more potent teams.

I think the thing that's important is that they have confidence that they CAN dominate. To me, that means that even if they get shredded for a series or two in the playoffs, they still know that they can "get it together" throughout the course of a game.

A defense without confidence will get shredded and then, often times, continue to do so because they stop believing in the guys around them. This team doesn't seem like the type that'll fall into that mindset.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I think the thing that's important is that they have confidence that they CAN dominate. To me, that means that even if they get shredded for a series or two in the playoffs, they still know that they can "get it together" throughout the course of a game.

A defense without confidence will get shredded and then, often times, continue to do so because they stop believing in the guys around them. This team doesn't seem like the type that'll fall into that mindset.

I actually agree with this. I try not to lean too hard on theories like that, but I do sort of think there's legitimacy to it. The more comfort me and confident they get, the better. PFW Guys were saying the other day that Dante or someone had been saying he sensed the team's turnaround, including on D, starting in SF, even though they didn't exactly cover themselves in glory then or in NY.

 

[dbn]

(snip)

Then again, such splits may be a fool's errand; 16 games is such a small sample size... (snip)

This is very good point that is probably almost always lost on most (and certainly on me, who should know better).

 

[DeadlySplitter]

The 6 teams are now locked in.

NE (13-2)
OAK (12-3)
====
PIT (10-5)
HOU (9-6)
KC (11-4)
MIA (10-5)

Week 17 matchups that matter:
NE @ MIA
DEN @ OAK
KC @ SD

-PIT & HOU are locked into the 3 & 4 seeds.
-We are the 1 seed unless we tie with OAK at 13-3. Because we lost to Buffalo 16-0 in that Brissett game and Oakland took care of Buffalo, we lose a common opponent record tiebreaker in this scenario.
-MIA is the 6 seed unless they tie with KC at 11-5, they would win a common opponent record tiebreaker for the 5 seed then. Houston is a much more desirable WC matchup than Pit, so Miami might not entirely lay down.
-KC and OAK swap 2/5 seeds if they tie at 12-4, as KC won both head-to-head.

 

[DJnVa]

KC and PIT in 2/3 would be my choice. Only see one of them.

 

[koufax32]

I'm really pulling for KC and OAK to swap spots. Cake divisional game plus only one of KC/PIT would do nicely.

 

[dbn]

Nice update, but small correction: Houston is 9-6.

They clinch the division with a -42 point differential. Nice division you've got there, AFC South.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

fixed. I did run the simulator if HOU & PIT both end up 10-6 in case... but even with PIT playing for nothing they're not losing to Cleveland at home, lol.

 

[wiffleballhero]

I hope/assume that Miami will be resting players for the next round. Give the Pats a walkover maybe?

 

[RedOctober3829]

I hope/assume that Miami will be resting players for the next round. Give the Pats a walkover maybe?

I don't think they'll lay down. They should want to get the 5 seed in order to play Houston instead of Pittsburgh.

Yesterday's results mean the Pats game stays at 1:00.

 

[Stitch01]

Sort of a weird spot all around for the Pats. Can't count on the Raiders losing even with McGloin starting, although obviously with Carr up those chances go up. Who knows how much Denver will be playing/who has been banged up that they will sit. Miami is in but has seeding to play for, who knows how much they value that vs. resting. Plus this is a potential divisional round opponent for the Pats and a third matchup of the season, so they probably don't want to show all their best Dolphin specific plays and plans

 

[RedOctober3829]

Sort of a weird spot all around for the Pats. Can't count on the Raiders losing even with McGloin starting, although obviously with Carr up those chances go up. Who knows how much Denver will be playing/who has been banged up that they will sit. Miami is in but has seeding to play for, who knows how much they value that vs. resting. Plus this is a potential divisional round opponent for the Pats and a third matchup of the season, so they probably don't want to show all their best Dolphin specific plays and plans

I would hope they learned their lesson from last year and just go to Miami and take care of business. That game plan last year was inexcusable. I wouldn't worry about hiding plays based on a theoretical matchup. Sew up homefield and worry about possible opponents later.

 

[wilked]

If NE / OAK lose and KC wins can they get top seed?

Edit to add - that is not a possibility

So for the pats to travel, they need to lose Sunday and Oakland beat Denver and beat its first playoff opponent. Put it together and you are probably below 25% even if you assume Pats lose.

Personally I would rest many, play Brady first half, and roll out the vanilla game plan. This year is not last year, and even in that 25% of going to Oakland I am just not worried (vs worried about an injury Sunday)