Cannot see DEN beating OAK in the Hole next week. Losing is a big FU to the Chiefs and the Pats.
AFC Playoffs into December
- Thread starter wilked
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I do not understand "Miami ought to be resting its starters!"
Can anyone guarantee Tannehill will be ready week 1 of the playoffs? ( He is just out of a cast and walking with a limp.) If not, Moore still needs a fuckton of work. And if he needs that, he needs it with starters, not to mention linemen who will keep him on one piece.
Oh, and maybe this coaching staff wants to keep them playing hard, not to mention seeding. That's what some of the Dolphins fans here think.
Wishcasting central.
Why does Moore need a fuckton of work? 34 pts last two weeks plus he handled the end of the game against Arizona. He and their offense are fine. They should rest Ajayi and protect their WRs and DL IMO. I don't think it is wishcasting at all.
That being said, they are 9-1 in their last 10 and may just want to keep every bit of momentum going, so playing it straight is also a totally viable strategy.
I could see it going either way.
That being said, they are 9-1 in their last 10 and may just want to keep every bit of momentum going, so playing it straight is also a totally viable strategy.
I could see it going either way.
Because during the first half Saturday he was 5 for 14 for 57 yards, threw a brutal interception, against an awful Buffalo defense, and because he played the Jets the week before?
Oakland has something to play for (seeding, new QB) next week and Denver has nothing to play for. Have you seen the Broncos games the past 2 weeks? I'd be shocked if they beat Oakland. That first home playoff game will be more difficult, but it will be at home and against a team not coming off of a bye.
Pats have to win in Miami against a team looking for better seeding next week.
From Denver standpoint, we have to root for division rivalry aspect and the fact that the Broncos shat the bed last night and have some pride.
It was never that clear cut wanting KC to win last night. Had Denver won, it would be fighting for a playoff spot, at home, against a backup QB.
In any case, Pats have to handle their own business.
It was never that clear cut wanting KC to win last night. Had Denver won, it would be fighting for a playoff spot, at home, against a backup QB.
In any case, Pats have to handle their own business.
So if the Pats were in Miami's shoes, you'd want the starters out there in the hopes they could move up one spot on the condition that the Chargers (who just lost to Cleveland) beat KC? I suspect you'd be criticizing him if he did that.
I would absolutely play balls out.
It has been a generation plus since the Dolphins have accomplished any damn thing. There is nothing to "preserve"; they are in no sense favorites. They can improve seeding and, yes, this QB needs work with starters.
I think this is key. In the first place, it's one thing to be a staff that has lots of success and can dial the intensity up or down each week, but for a new regime tasting success for the first time I imagine there would be a desire not to tinker.
In the second place, the confidence and momentum gained from beating the Patriots in the season's final home game would outweigh any injury concerns.
That's the coaching staff. Whether the players can get to the same intensity level is debatable. I haven't looked at the statistics in a long time, but there used to be a clear difference in winning percentage between teams fighting to get into the playoffs versus those fighting for seeding.
It opened DEN -3.5, which I think is about right. I think Denver will have too much pride to roll over at Mile High.
I think the point is, they really can't. Or it's highly unlikely. KC could get a bye with a win. I don't see them losing to San Diego.
That said, I don't think Miami should totally rest, but play it kind of safe. Safe enough to guarantee a Pats win. That's all.
Jay Ajayi tweaked his shoulder after carrying it over 30 times against Buffalo. I would argue strongly that the risk of Ajayi getting hurt and missing the first round of the playoffs greatly outweighs the possibility of Miami getting the 5 seed.
I personally think Miami runs the starters out their in an attempt to win the game, but if they get down early or are down big at the half, they pull some key players, like Ajayi or Wake.
The sentiment that Miami hasn't done shit is exactly why Gase will run the starters out there. He feels the same way and wants to keep his team focused and motivated.
Yeah its stuff like that, how safe the Dolphins play with banged up guys. Pats rested Slater and Hightower yesterday, I'd guess the Dolphins likely do the equivalent with banged up guys who could probably go but are susceptible to aggravating injuries. But who knows.
Also doubt the Dolphins want to show everything they have since they probably have to beat NE again in the playoffs at some point.
Also doubt the Dolphins want to show everything they have since they probably have to beat NE again in the playoffs at some point.
Edited
Goal: prioritize for playing only 1 of Pitt And KC
Simplifying Assumptions:
KC and Pitt (and NE) beat Oak/Hou/Miami the vast majority of the time
Whether NE is the 1 or 2 seed is largely irrelevant (see first assumption)
If NE wins at 1:
Den > Oak and KC > SD. GOOD - KC 2 seed, Pats 1, Pitt/KC play round 2
Oak > Den and KC > SD. BAD - KC 5 seed, Pats 1, Pats play KC in 2 and Pitt in 3
Den > Oak and SD > KC. BAD - KC 5 seed, Pats 1, Pats play KC in 2 and Pitt in 3
Oak > Den and SD > KC. BAD - KC 5 seed, Pats 1,Pats play KC in 2 and Pitt in 3
If NE loses at 1:
Den > Oak and KC > SD. GOOD - KC 2 seed, Pats 1, Pitt/KC play round 2
Oak > Den and KC > SD. BAD - KC 5, Pats 2, Pats play Pitt in 2 and KC in 3
Den > Oak and SD > KC. GOOD - KC 6, Pats 1, KC plays Pitt in 1
Oak > Den and SD > KC. GOOD - KC 6, Pats 2, KC plays Pitt in 1
There's an argument that you want the Pats to lose to Miami as it makes it probable KC and Pitt play each other. No matter what we don't want KC and Oakland to win because it preserves KC as 5 (Pitt is always 3).
Odds of each scenario:
Let's say KC > SD 80% and Den > Oak 60%
Den > Oak and KC > SD 48%
Oak > Den and KC > SD 32%
Den > Oak and SD > KC 12%
Oak > Den and SD > KC 8%
If Pats win, 48% chance of playing only 1 of KC/Pitt
If Pats lose, 68% chance of playing only 1 of KC/Pitt
There are crazy scenarios where a team like Miami only has to play 1 of NE/Pitt/KC on its way to a Super Bowl. Miami and SD win week 17. Miami beats Houston WC. Then Miami travels to Oakland and wins playing the winner of NE vs KC/Pitt. Crazy. Even crazier is a 6th seed KC comes out of that scrum and Miaminhas a home AFCCG
Goal: prioritize for playing only 1 of Pitt And KC
Simplifying Assumptions:
KC and Pitt (and NE) beat Oak/Hou/Miami the vast majority of the time
Whether NE is the 1 or 2 seed is largely irrelevant (see first assumption)
If NE wins at 1:
Den > Oak and KC > SD. GOOD - KC 2 seed, Pats 1, Pitt/KC play round 2
Oak > Den and KC > SD. BAD - KC 5 seed, Pats 1, Pats play KC in 2 and Pitt in 3
Den > Oak and SD > KC. BAD - KC 5 seed, Pats 1, Pats play KC in 2 and Pitt in 3
Oak > Den and SD > KC. BAD - KC 5 seed, Pats 1,Pats play KC in 2 and Pitt in 3
If NE loses at 1:
Den > Oak and KC > SD. GOOD - KC 2 seed, Pats 1, Pitt/KC play round 2
Oak > Den and KC > SD. BAD - KC 5, Pats 2, Pats play Pitt in 2 and KC in 3
Den > Oak and SD > KC. GOOD - KC 6, Pats 1, KC plays Pitt in 1
Oak > Den and SD > KC. GOOD - KC 6, Pats 2, KC plays Pitt in 1
There's an argument that you want the Pats to lose to Miami as it makes it probable KC and Pitt play each other. No matter what we don't want KC and Oakland to win because it preserves KC as 5 (Pitt is always 3).
Odds of each scenario:
Let's say KC > SD 80% and Den > Oak 60%
Den > Oak and KC > SD 48%
Oak > Den and KC > SD 32%
Den > Oak and SD > KC 12%
Oak > Den and SD > KC 8%
If Pats win, 48% chance of playing only 1 of KC/Pitt
If Pats lose, 68% chance of playing only 1 of KC/Pitt
There are crazy scenarios where a team like Miami only has to play 1 of NE/Pitt/KC on its way to a Super Bowl. Miami and SD win week 17. Miami beats Houston WC. Then Miami travels to Oakland and wins playing the winner of NE vs KC/Pitt. Crazy. Even crazier is a 6th seed KC comes out of that scrum and Miaminhas a home AFCCG
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They rested DH and MS in part because the field conditions were poor and it made sense to not risk further injury.
Yeah and they were a million point favorites and the coaching staff correctly assessed they'd win by a million with those guys sitting. I think both guys play if it rains this Sunday.
Dolphins staff will have to make their own risk/reward assessment. I think they play starters but doubt they are playing banged up guys or show wrinkles on defense. We will see.
Dolphins staff will have to make their own risk/reward assessment. I think they play starters but doubt they are playing banged up guys or show wrinkles on defense. We will see.
In the unlikely event the Pats and Raiders make the AFCCG then the Pats will be favored by more than a TD no matter where it is. Personally, based on where we are today, I will be thrilled to have the Pats go to Oakland in the AFCCG (Pitt and KC will be eliminated). I don't agree with people prioritizing home field advantage in a game that is unlikely to happen over keeping guys healthy to get to an AFCCG.
The Raiders aren't the 2015 Broncos. Their team is built around Carr and he's done.
Plus, see my edited post above. Pats losing makes it MORE LIKELY that Pats play one of KC/Pitt rather than 2.
The Raiders aren't the 2015 Broncos. Their team is built around Carr and he's done.
Plus, see my edited post above. Pats losing makes it MORE LIKELY that Pats play one of KC/Pitt rather than 2.
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Aren't the field conditions going to be terrible in Miami, too? I understand they're hosting a bowl game this week.
I just posted my thoughts about this in the Miami thread. I agree with this wholeheartedly. It's uncharted territory for the Dolphins and along with all the reasons you cited, I don't think they can afford to dial it down at this point. Unlike New England, they have question marks galore about what kind of team they really are and a lot of work to do on both sides of the ball. That #5 seed should be more than enough incentive to keep the pedal to the metal and (hopefully) work out some of the kinks that reared their head the past few weeks v. subpar competition.
FYI for people who think Miami would rest starters.
"We have an opportunity to play after Week 17, but our main focus is this week," Gase said. "We’re going to stick to our plan that we’ve had this entire season of not looking past the opponent that we’ve had ahead."
The Dolphins have several banged-up players down the stretch, including left tackle Branden Albert (hand), cornerback Byron Maxwell (ankle) and linebacker Kiko Alonso (thumb, hamstring), who could use a couple of weeks to rest. However, Gase said the Patriots can "embarrass you" if a team looks past them, and that Miami must bring its "A game" this week.
http://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/24072/dolphins-not-expected-to-rest-starters-vs-patriots
"We have an opportunity to play after Week 17, but our main focus is this week," Gase said. "We’re going to stick to our plan that we’ve had this entire season of not looking past the opponent that we’ve had ahead."
The Dolphins have several banged-up players down the stretch, including left tackle Branden Albert (hand), cornerback Byron Maxwell (ankle) and linebacker Kiko Alonso (thumb, hamstring), who could use a couple of weeks to rest. However, Gase said the Patriots can "embarrass you" if a team looks past them, and that Miami must bring its "A game" this week.
http://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/24072/dolphins-not-expected-to-rest-starters-vs-patriots
Of course he's going to say that. And I believe it. But if Pats go up by 14 or so in the second quarter, any smart coach will start dialing things down and resting some starters.
BB said he didn't even understand the question about resting starters, yet he's sat Gronk before in finales, played backups I'm the second half, sat Hightower and Slater last week, etc. it's coach speak. Maybe resting starters is a bad term, but if someone is borderline with an injury I doubt Miami is running them out there and I doubt Ajayi is getting carries in a 21-10 game in the second half or whatever.
I know it's a long shot (because KC would have to lose its game against SD), but I think the best seeding outcome for the Pats is:
OAK
NE
PITT
HOU
MIA
KC
Being able to the advantage of this best-case scenario would hinge on KC beating PITT in round 1, though, which I think they would be favored to do. If they did, KC would travel to OAK in round 2 while the Pats would get to pummel whichever cupcake bumblefucked its way out of the MIA-HOU game in Foxboro. Most likely, the AFC Championship would be in NE (against a KC team that played a physical team on the WC the week before). At worst, the AFC Championship would be in OAK against a Carr-less Raiders team (albeit one that managed to beat a good KC team).
I think the only way that the above seeding could happen would be if MIA beats the Pats, OAK beats Denver and SD beats KC this weekend. Again, a long shot, but I think I'm rooting for this as it's more favorable than having to play both KC and PITT (which couldn't happen because one of the two would be knocked out in the first round).
EDIT: Changed the necessary outcome of the OAK-DEN game per Hector S's post below.
OAK
NE
PITT
HOU
MIA
KC
Being able to the advantage of this best-case scenario would hinge on KC beating PITT in round 1, though, which I think they would be favored to do. If they did, KC would travel to OAK in round 2 while the Pats would get to pummel whichever cupcake bumblefucked its way out of the MIA-HOU game in Foxboro. Most likely, the AFC Championship would be in NE (against a KC team that played a physical team on the WC the week before). At worst, the AFC Championship would be in OAK against a Carr-less Raiders team (albeit one that managed to beat a good KC team).
I think the only way that the above seeding could happen would be if MIA beats the Pats, OAK beats Denver and SD beats KC this weekend. Again, a long shot, but I think I'm rooting for this as it's more favorable than having to play both KC and PITT (which couldn't happen because one of the two would be knocked out in the first round).
EDIT: Changed the necessary outcome of the OAK-DEN game per Hector S's post below.
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This is almost always true, but I'm struggling with this this year.
I mean, under that scenario, the only possible road game is against an OAK team without Carr, and even that wouldn't be likely as KC would be favored (I think) over the Raiders in round 2.
I agree that that's a favorable scenario, but are the Pats not #1 either way if OAK loses?
Nah.
My pulled out of my ass odds of Pats beating each opponent:
KC: .6
Pitt: .6
Mia: .85
Hou: .95
Oak: .95
@Oak: .85
Pats Odds to make super bowl:
Pats 1, KC 5...
...Pats play KC, Pitt (most likely): .36
Pats 2, KC 6...
...Pats play Miami, KC: .51 (home field)
...Pats play Pitt, Miami: .51 (home field)
...Pats play Pitt, @Oak (unlikely): .51
(I always assume Hou loses)
So not playing KC and Pitt > Pats securing #1
You need to assume Pats are worse than 60/40 in Oakland and that Oakland can beat KC for you to be right. That's not reality.
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Argh, I should have stated OAK beats Denver (which is actually more likely). I fucked that up.
EDIT: OK, post above now corrected.
Gotcha. That's definitely a good if not the ideal path to the AFCCG. After last year, I do subscribe at least somewhat to the "homefield above all" mindset but going into a Carr-less Oakland wouldn't be a bad scenario.
I think this is where both teams are. Miami has plenty of bodies that can use a rest, but because most of their roster is inexperienced in terms of the playoffs, I don't think they can risk preparing and executing this week like it didn't matter.
I agree if the game swings one way or the other by the second half, both teams might start pulling starters. Ajayi, Wake, and Suh are probably the three guys I'd like to see less of in Week 17.
85 percent to win in Oakland translates to pats -10.5. I've heard sports bettor power rankings have the Pats about 8 above an average team. So given home field that translates to Oakland being about 5.5 points worse than an average team without Carr. No way, and the difference in win percentages you've assigned isn't valuing home field properly.
60 percent translates to about Pats -3. That's too low at home, both for KC and for Pitt.
I'll run this with market lines once we have a better approximation for where the Raiders are without Carr, but you are generally too high on the chances of winning the non KC/Pitt games, too low on the chance of winning the KC/Pitt games, and not assigning enough weight to the difference between playing at Oakland and at Foxboro.
Plus the Pats can't even assure avoiding Pitt or KC by winning their game.
I'm rooting for the one seed.
Does Oak get a big home field boost? You're just applying a flat rate. If this were Den in particular, Seattle or KC I'd agree with you.
Why do you think Oak without Carr is an average team? Ranks using DVOA
Pass O: 4
Rush O: 14
Defense: 22
Jimmy G or Romo aren't waking through that door. PassO is going to fall off a cliff and take rush down a bit too. Below average offense and defense = below average team. They're worse than Miami and just a bit above Houston.
I'm skeptical but fair enough
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Even if its not a giant homefield boost, the swing of being home vs away should swing the win percentages more and the Pats historical home record says they need to at least get the flat rate.
It is going to be closer than I thought, I was underweighting the fact they can only go to Oakland w/o Carr when I handwaved away the original argument.
My insinct is that KC and Pitt aren't as worrisome as the chance of playing Pitt last year was, but certainly evidence out there to argue against that
It is going to be closer than I thought, I was underweighting the fact they can only go to Oakland w/o Carr when I handwaved away the original argument.
My insinct is that KC and Pitt aren't as worrisome as the chance of playing Pitt last year was, but certainly evidence out there to argue against that
Are you saying that if you had to choose between only these two scenarios . . .
1. MIA/HOU @ NE, and then NE @ OAK (minus Carr)
2. KC @ NE, and then PITT @ NE
. . . you'd prefer the latter? Hmmmmm...I don't think I agree.
I think the only way you're right is if Pats have a lower odds @Oak without Carr as at home vs Pitt/KC. That doesn't pass the smell test. They should be more favored in former than latter.
I think not playing KC and Pitt is most important.
Pats should rest key guys as much as possible against Miami and pay no attention to the score. Let Jimmy play most of the first half and Jacoby play the whole 2nd half. Max 1-2 drives for Brady, Butler, Edelman, etc.
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James Palmer @JamesPalmerTV 53m53 minutes ago
Gary Kubiak said he’d like to play everybody Sunday. He’ll make a decision on Paxton Lynch and other guys later in the week.
Gary Kubiak said he’d like to play everybody Sunday. He’ll make a decision on Paxton Lynch and other guys later in the week.
Pats are 15-3 at home in the playoffs with Brady and Belichick versus 2-4 on the road. Against AFC teams since '07, Brady is 52-1 and the loss was Week 17 of 2014 when they tanked the game. Needless to say, home field means a ton to this team.
3 of those road losses were in Denver. The 4th was that disaster against the Colts when everyone on defense left the game at halftime.
Playoffs are seeded so they're typically going to be favored at home and dogs on the road. The three home losses were upsets.
It's not just a slanted/unrepresentative sample but a small sample.
Ultimately, this doesn't tell you anything about their odds of winning a game that is very unlikely to happen (Oak couldn't beat KC with Carr, not happening without him) against a passing minded team who just lost their QB
Of course time and score is going to dictate how you handle the roster. But, neither coach is going to do what BB did in Wk 17 '14 if there are playoff implications on the line. Both sides should want to get out to a big lead and then assess their options for resting people after that.
I'm with whoever said home field trumps all. Maneuvering for favorable matchups in the playoffs always feels like a fool's game for me. Win two home games and represent your conference in the Super Bowl seems like it should always be the goal.
So you have both Miami and @Oak as harder than Pitt & KC????
Or do you think Miami is similar to Pitt/KC and the Pats are basically underdogs in Oakland?
What odds do you think each game should get?? You're good at this stuff but seem to be making some unconventional projections. Share your work.