Yeah, it's a 5% increase in odds going from 4 to 3.This more than makes up for the Dallas pick dropping 4 or however many spots.
Correct. Keep in mind it's not just the odds for #1 that increase. It is a huge difference in expected outcome and trade value.Yeah, it's a 5% increase in odds going from 4 to 3.
If they finish with the same record, there's a random drawing for the shitty team 3-seed, right?
In absolute terms, yes. But I prefer to think of it as a 31% higher chance at the number 1 pick from the number 3 slot compared to the number 4 slot. Phrasing!Yeah, it's a 5% increase in odds going from 4 to 3.
The most likely draft slot for both the #3 and the #4 slot is 5th so while the move up adds incremental value to our chance at the 1 and a Top-3......the most likely scenario of where we will be drafting regardless of Phoe/Brkln is still 5th. Sobering I know.In absolute terms, yes. But I prefer to think of it as a 31% higher chance at the number 1 pick from the number 3 slot compared to the number 4 slot. Phrasing!
That's pretty clever parsing, HRB;The most likely draft slot for both the #3 and the #4 slot is 5th so while the move up adds incremental value to our chance at the 1 and a Top-3......the most likely scenario of where we will be drafting regardless of Phoe/Brkln is still 5th. Sobering I know.
With the usual caveats that on any given day, am I right that Indy and Toronto should not be in doubt? (they have something to play for so would not roll over.) That leaves only the Wash game.PHX wins (BRK is 0.5 GA of PHX for the #3 lottery slot - BRK plays @IND, WAS, TOR; PHX plays SAC, LAC)
Of course it is and I'm not suggesting otherwise. Only that we will most likely pick 5th regardless and not due to us getting screwed by the lottery again.Moving from the 4 slot to the 3 slot decreases our chance of picking 5th or worse from 52.4% to 30.5%; and of picking 6th or worse from 17.3% to 4%. It's a meaningful difference.
To parse this a bit further so it reads accurately, it went from "the Celtics are slightly more likely to pick 5th or 6th than 4th or better" to, "the Celtics are likely to pick 4th or better."Of course it is and I'm not suggesting otherwise. Only that we will most likely pick 5th regardless and not due to us getting screwed by the lottery again.
Lies, damn lies, and statis...No actually that's pretty good. Throw in a visualization of the distribution and it'll be perfect.Or, look at it like this:
The expected value of the draft position of the 3rd best record is 3.407
For the 4th best record, it's 3.972
Lies, damn lies, and statis...No actually that's pretty good. Throw in a visualization of the distribution and it'll be perfect.
Not sure it matters. BK can't compete right now, including against teams like the Pelicans' C squad.When the game takes place, Toronto will have nothing to play for.
Ha. I actually meant a chart of seeds 3 and 4 of this data. Slots 1-7 across bottom with probability of attaining = bar height.
Ha. I actually meant a chart of seeds 3 and 4 of this data. Slots 1-7 across bottom with probability of attaining = bar height.
Seed; odds of slot: 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
1 .250 .215 .178 .357
2 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123
3 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040
4 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery
I have no expectation of anybody doing this but it's a full explanation that's easy to visualize and I'm on mobile.
That seems to be the consensus. I don't follow college ball enough to have an opinion on the strength of drafts, so I trust the smarter guys in the room (cellar) about this topic.Can I ask what is the best scenario for the former Mavs pick is?
(If I guess, it would be: Mavs land in 1-7/behind Celtics in lottery, keep the pick until a year[17?] with a better draft+a Draft when the Celtics don´t already have multiple 1st round picks.)
I'd say best scenario is Mavs to provide a late lotto this year. If we don't get it this year, that means they landed in top 3 and landed a potential impact player. Next year may be a better draft but that pick could easily be in low 20s if Mavs get lucky in 2016. Celtics could always trade the Mavs pick for future picks.That seems to be the consensus. I don't follow college ball enough to have an opinion on the strength of drafts, so I trust the smarter guys in the room (cellar) about this topic.
Please make sure to use the correct term "Eurostash" when discussing these matters.Best case is the unlikely Mavs lose out, Jazz and Rockets win. Get the pick somewhere 12-14. Overall this might be an OK year to have a mid first. It's not a great draft but people who cover internationals think it's one of the best and deepest Int. groups. A draft and stash makes sense.
Yeah, I agree with this. Some years there's a huge difference between picking 12 and 16, but this year I don't think there's a whole lot of difference between say 8 and 16 (in terms of prospect ability). For example, I don't see a whole lot of daylight between say Henry Ellenson at 8 and Domantas Sabonis at 16. It's weird draft where you have two blue chip prospects and then only a handful of red chip prospects. In my eyes, you have Simmons, Ingram, Murray, Dunn, Bender and Hield. That's my drop-off line and after that, there's probably 10-15 guys who are interchangeable in value/ability. I think this year in particular, draft boards are going to be wildly different from team to team.Best case is the unlikely Mavs lose out, Jazz and Rockets win. Get the pick somewhere 12-14. Overall this might be an OK year to have a mid first. It's not a great draft but people who cover internationals think it's one of the best and deepest Int. groups. A draft and stash makes sense.
Seriously, Danny and Stevens have to be elated with how things are shaping up. If, and it's a big if, Danny can attract that star player, this team is lined up to be really good for a really long time.I won't say what the draft simulator results came up with today, but I'm pretty happy with the latest turn of events from a probability standpoint.
Win a playoff series, attract a max-deal guy, win the lottery, package a bunch of other picks for a star. It could happen, right?
This. It seems reasonable to expect that PHI, LAL, PHO, and MIN will all improve, just based on the growth of the young players on their rosters. And there isn't an obvious candidate for another team to fall to the bottom of the barrel, absent an injury to a star player. BKN's roster isn't blessed with the same growth potential, and they got pretty lucky health-wise with Brook Lopez this year. Every team will have free agent money this year and next, and BKN will be a hard sell to free agents who will have better opportunities to play for winning franchises. There is good reason to hope the Celtics could be in a similar position each of the next two draft classes with the 2017 and 2018 BKN picks, notwithstanding the fact that BKN has no incentive to continue to lose.Looking at roster and assets id say 17-18 is the bottom out season for the Nets franchise. Esp if PHI and LA get out of the total tankathon mode.
What do you mean by "low hanging fruit"? I mean, you could be right, but Brooklyn is still going to have to compete to sign the players with other teams who have cap room, no?I'll take the bearish position here. I don't know if Sean Marks is actually any good, but there's a lot of low hanging fruit for NBA teams trying to be decent. Brooklyn's not going to attract a star, but insofar as you're trying to win 35 games or something, cheap free agents (think Bismack Biyombo) are there for the taking.
I mean guys (like Biyombo) who are strong NBA talents, but don't have the kinds of upsides or two-way games that actual contending teams are looking for when they spend big bucks in free agency. Most teams aren't trying to win 35 games, so there's not that much competition for those guys, especially if you're offering near-starters minutes.What do you mean by "low hanging fruit"? I mean, you could be right, but Brooklyn is still going to have to compete to sign the players with other teams who have cap room, no?
Crazy to want the #6 seed at this point? Better draft pick and only way to avoid CLE until the ECF. Clearly no home court but....MIA wins. BOS is tied for 5th with CHA, 1.0 GB of ATL & MIA. BOS wins the tiebreakers with MIA & CHA but loses a tiebreaker with ATL. However, because the Southeast Division remains open, in a three- or four-way tie involving ATL and MIA, BOS finishes third among that group.
If BOS beats MIA tomorrow and ATL beats WAS, BOS will be the #4 seed and will host MIA in the first round.
If BOS beats MIA tomorrow and ATL loses @ WAS (regardless of the result of the CHA-ORL game), BOS will be the #5 seed and will play ATL in the first round.
If BOS loses to MIA tomorrow, BOS will be (A) the #5 seed if CHA loses vs. ORL and will play ATL in the first round, or (B) the #6 seed if CHA beats ORL and will play MIA in the first round. If BOS is the #6 seed, it will have the 21st pick in the NBA draft.
BOS cannot finish as the #3 seed.
I know you used him as only an example but Biyombo is going to get paid big bucks this summer probably in the $10-12m per year range. Same with the Evan Turners. These guys are no longer cheap......Tyler Zeller will be cheap in the $5m range but that isn't getting the Nets any more wins much less to 35.I'll take the bearish position here. I don't know if Sean Marks is actually any good, but there's a lot of low hanging fruit for NBA teams trying to be decent. Brooklyn's not going to attract a star, but insofar as you're trying to win 35 games or something, cheap free agents (think Bismack Biyombo) are there for the taking.
Of course, that's presuming Marks actually goes for those guys, rather than a bunch of D-league moonshots in hopes of finding the next Hassan Whiteside.