Celtics Draft Pick Watch 2016
- Thread starter wutang112878
- Start date
Yeah, it's a 5% increase in odds going from 4 to 3.
If they finish with the same record, there's a random drawing for the shitty team 3-seed, right?
Correct. Keep in mind it's not just the odds for #1 that increase. It is a huge difference in expected outcome and trade value.
Saturday's results:
ATL wins, BOS loses (BOS is in 4th, 1.0 GB of ATL, 0.5 GA of CHA & MIA)
MEM & POR lose (DAL is in 7th, 2.0 GA of UTA, 3.0 GA of HOU, 0.5 GB of MEM and 1.0 GB of POR)
(Any DAL win or HOU loss would clinch a DAL playoff spot - right now the DAL draft pick looks to be #16)
PHX wins (BRK is 0.5 GA of PHX for the #3 lottery slot - BRK plays @IND, WAS, TOR; PHX plays SAC, LAC)
Sunday's games:
CHA@WAS
ORL@MIA
LAL@HOU
DAL@LAC
UTA@DEN
BRK@IND
ATL wins, BOS loses (BOS is in 4th, 1.0 GB of ATL, 0.5 GA of CHA & MIA)
MEM & POR lose (DAL is in 7th, 2.0 GA of UTA, 3.0 GA of HOU, 0.5 GB of MEM and 1.0 GB of POR)
(Any DAL win or HOU loss would clinch a DAL playoff spot - right now the DAL draft pick looks to be #16)
PHX wins (BRK is 0.5 GA of PHX for the #3 lottery slot - BRK plays @IND, WAS, TOR; PHX plays SAC, LAC)
Sunday's games:
CHA@WAS
ORL@MIA
LAL@HOU
DAL@LAC
UTA@DEN
BRK@IND
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In absolute terms, yes. But I prefer to think of it as a 31% higher chance at the number 1 pick from the number 3 slot compared to the number 4 slot. Phrasing!
The most likely draft slot for both the #3 and the #4 slot is 5th so while the move up adds incremental value to our chance at the 1 and a Top-3......the most likely scenario of where we will be drafting regardless of Phoe/Brkln is still 5th. Sobering I know.
That's pretty clever parsing, HRB;
the likelihood of (5th or 6th) from the third spot is 30.5%, whereas that likelihood increases to 51% from the fourth spot.
the question is how important is the difference in those positions? I don't follow the amateurs at all anymore so I'm not one to say.
With the usual caveats that on any given day, am I right that Indy and Toronto should not be in doubt? (they have something to play for so would not roll over.) That leaves only the Wash game.
And on the 3 vs. 4 vote, I'd go with 3 if given the choice.
Of course it is and I'm not suggesting otherwise. Only that we will most likely pick 5th regardless and not due to us getting screwed by the lottery again.
To parse this a bit further so it reads accurately, it went from "the Celtics are slightly more likely to pick 5th or 6th than 4th or better" to, "the Celtics are likely to pick 4th or better."
Or, look at it like this:
The expected value of the draft position of the 3rd best record is 3.407
For the 4th best record, it's 3.972
The expected value of the draft position of the 3rd best record is 3.407
For the 4th best record, it's 3.972
Lies, damn lies, and statis...No actually that's pretty good. Throw in a visualization of the distribution and it'll be perfect.
Just to be clear though, the EV only matters to our expectations, the pick can't be traded until after the lottery has taken place.
Not sure it matters. BK can't compete right now, including against teams like the Pelicans' C squad.
Ha. I actually meant a chart of seeds 3 and 4 of this data. Slots 1-7 across bottom with probability of attaining = bar height.
Seed; odds of slot: 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
1 .250 .215 .178 .357
2 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123
3 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040
4 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery
I have no expectation of anybody doing this but it's a full explanation that's easy to visualize and I'm on mobile.
Mavs lose. Rockets and Jazz win. Mavs still would have the 16th pick but Utah a game back.
And as I type this, Pacers started the 2nd half on a 14-2 run. Lead the Nets by 40.
And as I type this, Pacers started the 2nd half on a 14-2 run. Lead the Nets by 40.
Can I ask what is the best scenario for the former Mavs pick is?
(If I guess, it would be: Mavs land in 1-7/behind Celtics in lottery, keep the pick until a year[17?] with a better draft+a Draft when the Celtics don´t already have multiple 1st round picks.)
(If I guess, it would be: Mavs land in 1-7/behind Celtics in lottery, keep the pick until a year[17?] with a better draft+a Draft when the Celtics don´t already have multiple 1st round picks.)
Sunday's results:
MIA wins, CHA loses (BOS is tied for 4th with MIA, 1.0 GB of ATL, 1.0 GA of CHA)
(BOS's pick will be between ##21-24, depending on the results of the final two games)
HOU & UTA win, DAL loses (DAL is in 7th, 1.0 GA of UTA, 2.0 GA of HOU, 1.0 GB of MEM and 1.5 GB of POR)
(Any DAL win or HOU loss would clinch a DAL playoff spot - right now the DAL draft pick looks to be #16)
BRK loses (BRK is 1.0 GA of PHX for the #3 pre-lottery slot - BRK plays WAS/TOR; PHX plays SAC/LAC)
(Any combination of two BRK losses and PHX wins would clinch the #3 pre-lottery spot for the BRK draft pick)
Monday's games:
ATL@CLE
CHA@BOS
HOU@MIN
DAL@UTA
WAS@BRK
SAC@PHX
Tuesday's games:
MIA@DET
MEM@LAC
Wednesday's games:
MIA@BOS
ATL@WAS
ORL@CHA
MEM@GS
SA@DAL
UTA@LAL
DEN@POR
SAC@HOU
TOR@BRK
LAC@PHX
(end of regular season)
MIA wins, CHA loses (BOS is tied for 4th with MIA, 1.0 GB of ATL, 1.0 GA of CHA)
(BOS's pick will be between ##21-24, depending on the results of the final two games)
HOU & UTA win, DAL loses (DAL is in 7th, 1.0 GA of UTA, 2.0 GA of HOU, 1.0 GB of MEM and 1.5 GB of POR)
(Any DAL win or HOU loss would clinch a DAL playoff spot - right now the DAL draft pick looks to be #16)
BRK loses (BRK is 1.0 GA of PHX for the #3 pre-lottery slot - BRK plays WAS/TOR; PHX plays SAC/LAC)
(Any combination of two BRK losses and PHX wins would clinch the #3 pre-lottery spot for the BRK draft pick)
Monday's games:
ATL@CLE
CHA@BOS
HOU@MIN
DAL@UTA
WAS@BRK
SAC@PHX
Tuesday's games:
MIA@DET
MEM@LAC
Wednesday's games:
MIA@BOS
ATL@WAS
ORL@CHA
MEM@GS
SA@DAL
UTA@LAL
DEN@POR
SAC@HOU
TOR@BRK
LAC@PHX
(end of regular season)
None of the opponents of Brk / Phx really has anything to play for in these last two games, so that is a bit of a wash at least. The main difference is that it is in Phx interest to get the #3, whereas Brk has no interest.
Although clearly the Suns players view it differently.
Although clearly the Suns players view it differently.
That seems to be the consensus. I don't follow college ball enough to have an opinion on the strength of drafts, so I trust the smarter guys in the room (cellar) about this topic.
I'd say best scenario is Mavs to provide a late lotto this year. If we don't get it this year, that means they landed in top 3 and landed a potential impact player. Next year may be a better draft but that pick could easily be in low 20s if Mavs get lucky in 2016. Celtics could always trade the Mavs pick for future picks.
Looks like they'll have the third most cap space for a loaded free agent class, behind the Lakers and Sixers, ahead of the Cs. Cuban's going to be looking for impact guys and I expect he'll go hard after Pau Gasol after he opts out. The guys that are coming back are vets- Parsons, Wes Matthews, Deron, Barrea, Devin Harris. I'd expect them to be fighting for the playoffs again next year, at a minimum.
Best case is the unlikely Mavs lose out, Jazz and Rockets win. Get the pick somewhere 12-14. Overall this might be an OK year to have a mid first. It's not a great draft but people who cover internationals think it's one of the best and deepest Int. groups. A draft and stash makes sense.
Please make sure to use the correct term "Eurostash" when discussing these matters.
Yeah, I agree with this. Some years there's a huge difference between picking 12 and 16, but this year I don't think there's a whole lot of difference between say 8 and 16 (in terms of prospect ability). For example, I don't see a whole lot of daylight between say Henry Ellenson at 8 and Domantas Sabonis at 16. It's weird draft where you have two blue chip prospects and then only a handful of red chip prospects. In my eyes, you have Simmons, Ingram, Murray, Dunn, Bender and Hield. That's my drop-off line and after that, there's probably 10-15 guys who are interchangeable in value/ability. I think this year in particular, draft boards are going to be wildly different from team to team.
I won't say what the draft simulator results came up with today, but I'm pretty happy with the latest turn of events from a probability standpoint.
Win a playoff series, attract a max-deal guy, win the lottery, package a bunch of other picks for a star. It could happen, right?
Win a playoff series, attract a max-deal guy, win the lottery, package a bunch of other picks for a star. It could happen, right?
Seriously, Danny and Stevens have to be elated with how things are shaping up. If, and it's a big if, Danny can attract that star player, this team is lined up to be really good for a really long time.
And as for best case scenario for the Mavs pick, it's to land 12-16 this year. If the C's don't get it this year, Dallas will have landed in the top 3 and Cuban won't stop spending to improve the team. Get that pick now and let Danny use it to find someone he likes or send it in a package for an established player.
Top 15 prospects (ranked by two or more of ESPN.com, SI.com, nbadraft.net, draftexpress.com)
Ben Simmons (1, 2, 1, 2, avg. 1.50)
Brandon Ingram (2, 1, 2, 1, avg. 1.50)
Dragan Bender (3, 3, 6, 3, avg. 3.75)
Jamal Murray (4, 6, 7, 6, avg. 5.75)
Buddy Hield (5, 5, 3, 7, avg. 5.00)
Henry Ellenson (6, 8, 18, 9, avg. 10.25)
Kris Dunn (7, 7, 4, 5, avg. 5.75)
Marquese Chriss (8, 10, 16, 15, avg. 12.25)
Jaylen Brown (9, 4, 9, 4, avg. 6.50)
Jakob Poeltl (10, 11, 12, 8, avg. 10.25)
Deyonta Davis (11, 14, *, 13, avg. 12.67)
Ivan Rabb (12, 12, 8, 14, avg. 11.50)
Furkan Korkmaz (13, 13, 15, 18, avg. 14.75)
Denzel Valentine (14, 15, 23, 17, avg. 17.25)
Domantas Sabonis (15, 19, 5, 19, avg. 14.50)
Skal Labissiere (16, 18, 14, 10, avg. 14.50)
Timothe Luwawu (19, 9, 20, 12, avg. 15.00)
*ND has Davis pulling out of this year's draft
Ranked top 15 by only one of the four:
Dejounte Murray (10, ND)
Brice Johnson (11, ND)
Demetrious Jackson (11, DE)
Malik Beasley (13, ND)
Ben Simmons (1, 2, 1, 2, avg. 1.50)
Brandon Ingram (2, 1, 2, 1, avg. 1.50)
Dragan Bender (3, 3, 6, 3, avg. 3.75)
Jamal Murray (4, 6, 7, 6, avg. 5.75)
Buddy Hield (5, 5, 3, 7, avg. 5.00)
Henry Ellenson (6, 8, 18, 9, avg. 10.25)
Kris Dunn (7, 7, 4, 5, avg. 5.75)
Marquese Chriss (8, 10, 16, 15, avg. 12.25)
Jaylen Brown (9, 4, 9, 4, avg. 6.50)
Jakob Poeltl (10, 11, 12, 8, avg. 10.25)
Deyonta Davis (11, 14, *, 13, avg. 12.67)
Ivan Rabb (12, 12, 8, 14, avg. 11.50)
Furkan Korkmaz (13, 13, 15, 18, avg. 14.75)
Denzel Valentine (14, 15, 23, 17, avg. 17.25)
Domantas Sabonis (15, 19, 5, 19, avg. 14.50)
Skal Labissiere (16, 18, 14, 10, avg. 14.50)
Timothe Luwawu (19, 9, 20, 12, avg. 15.00)
*ND has Davis pulling out of this year's draft
Ranked top 15 by only one of the four:
Dejounte Murray (10, ND)
Brice Johnson (11, ND)
Demetrious Jackson (11, DE)
Malik Beasley (13, ND)
Since 1993, the # 3 seeded lotto team has won the number pick more times than #1, 2, and 4 combined.
Even though I pegged them as an easy bottom 5 roster in the offseason, I still can't help but feel a sense of surprise and elation that they ended up there.
Two more years of this, and then the Grizzwatch begins! I'm bearish on their offseason potential but you never really know. I'll be rooting hard for either a Thad for pick/prospect swap at the draft to potentially signal a clearer rebuild push or a max offer to Rondo to signal that Prokhorov and co. have the reigns rather than Marks.
Two more years of this, and then the Grizzwatch begins! I'm bearish on their offseason potential but you never really know. I'll be rooting hard for either a Thad for pick/prospect swap at the draft to potentially signal a clearer rebuild push or a max offer to Rondo to signal that Prokhorov and co. have the reigns rather than Marks.
Definitely. So far, all we have to show for this trade is 2 worthless James Young seasons but now we should see some real dividends with a top 5 pick on its way. Land Simmons or Ingram and it's officially a coup. And we still have a pretty good chance of landing 2 more lotto picks in 2017-2018 as well.
Looking at roster and assets id say 17-18 is the bottom out season for the Nets franchise. Esp if PHI and LA get out of the total tankathon mode.
Monday's results:
CHA wins, ATL & BOS lose (BOS is tied for 5th with CHA, 1.0 GB of ATL, 0.5 GB of MIA)
(BOS's pick will be between ##21-24)
HOU & DAL win, UTA loses (DAL is in 7th, 2.0 GA of UTA & HOU, 0.5 GB of MEM and 1.0 GB of POR)
(DAL has clinched a playoff spot - the DAL draft pick will be between ##16-20)
BRK & PHX lose (BRK is 1.0 GA of PHX for the #3 pre-lottery slot - BRK plays TOR; PHX plays LAC)
(A BRK loss or PHX win would clinch the #3 pre-lottery spot for the BRK draft pick)
Tuesday's games:
MIA@DET
MEM@LAC
Wednesday's games:
MIA@BOS
ATL@WAS
ORL@CHA
MEM@GS
SA@DAL
UTA@LAL
DEN@POR
SAC@HOU
TOR@BRK
LAC@PHX
(end of regular season)
CHA wins, ATL & BOS lose (BOS is tied for 5th with CHA, 1.0 GB of ATL, 0.5 GB of MIA)
(BOS's pick will be between ##21-24)
HOU & DAL win, UTA loses (DAL is in 7th, 2.0 GA of UTA & HOU, 0.5 GB of MEM and 1.0 GB of POR)
(DAL has clinched a playoff spot - the DAL draft pick will be between ##16-20)
BRK & PHX lose (BRK is 1.0 GA of PHX for the #3 pre-lottery slot - BRK plays TOR; PHX plays LAC)
(A BRK loss or PHX win would clinch the #3 pre-lottery spot for the BRK draft pick)
Tuesday's games:
MIA@DET
MEM@LAC
Wednesday's games:
MIA@BOS
ATL@WAS
ORL@CHA
MEM@GS
SA@DAL
UTA@LAL
DEN@POR
SAC@HOU
TOR@BRK
LAC@PHX
(end of regular season)
This. It seems reasonable to expect that PHI, LAL, PHO, and MIN will all improve, just based on the growth of the young players on their rosters. And there isn't an obvious candidate for another team to fall to the bottom of the barrel, absent an injury to a star player. BKN's roster isn't blessed with the same growth potential, and they got pretty lucky health-wise with Brook Lopez this year. Every team will have free agent money this year and next, and BKN will be a hard sell to free agents who will have better opportunities to play for winning franchises. There is good reason to hope the Celtics could be in a similar position each of the next two draft classes with the 2017 and 2018 BKN picks, notwithstanding the fact that BKN has no incentive to continue to lose.
I'll take the bearish position here. I don't know if Sean Marks is actually any good, but there's a lot of low hanging fruit for NBA teams trying to be decent. Brooklyn's not going to attract a star, but insofar as you're trying to win 35 games or something, cheap free agents (think Bismack Biyombo) are there for the taking.
Of course, that's presuming Marks actually goes for those guys, rather than a bunch of D-league moonshots in hopes of finding the next Hassan Whiteside.
Of course, that's presuming Marks actually goes for those guys, rather than a bunch of D-league moonshots in hopes of finding the next Hassan Whiteside.
What do you mean by "low hanging fruit"? I mean, you could be right, but Brooklyn is still going to have to compete to sign the players with other teams who have cap room, no?
MIA wins. BOS is tied for 5th with CHA, 1.0 GB of ATL & MIA. BOS wins the tiebreakers with MIA & CHA but loses a tiebreaker with ATL. However, because the Southeast Division remains open, in a three- or four-way tie involving ATL and MIA, BOS finishes third among that group.
If BOS beats MIA tomorrow and ATL beats WAS, BOS will be the #4 seed and will host MIA in the first round.
If BOS beats MIA tomorrow and ATL loses @ WAS (regardless of the result of the CHA-ORL game), BOS will be the #5 seed and will play ATL in the first round.
If BOS loses to MIA tomorrow, BOS will be (A) the #5 seed if CHA loses vs. ORL and will play ATL in the first round, or (B) the #6 seed if CHA beats ORL and will play MIA in the first round. If BOS is the #6 seed, it will have the 21st pick in the NBA draft.
BOS cannot finish as the #3 seed.
If BOS beats MIA tomorrow and ATL beats WAS, BOS will be the #4 seed and will host MIA in the first round.
If BOS beats MIA tomorrow and ATL loses @ WAS (regardless of the result of the CHA-ORL game), BOS will be the #5 seed and will play ATL in the first round.
If BOS loses to MIA tomorrow, BOS will be (A) the #5 seed if CHA loses vs. ORL and will play ATL in the first round, or (B) the #6 seed if CHA beats ORL and will play MIA in the first round. If BOS is the #6 seed, it will have the 21st pick in the NBA draft.
BOS cannot finish as the #3 seed.
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I mean guys (like Biyombo) who are strong NBA talents, but don't have the kinds of upsides or two-way games that actual contending teams are looking for when they spend big bucks in free agency. Most teams aren't trying to win 35 games, so there's not that much competition for those guys, especially if you're offering near-starters minutes.
Crazy to want the #6 seed at this point? Better draft pick and only way to avoid CLE until the ECF. Clearly no home court but....
I know you used him as only an example but Biyombo is going to get paid big bucks this summer probably in the $10-12m per year range. Same with the Evan Turners. These guys are no longer cheap......Tyler Zeller will be cheap in the $5m range but that isn't getting the Nets any more wins much less to 35.
This is a GREAT time for us to have the swapping of picks with the Nets due to so many more attractive options having cap space. If this is the best they can do they will be right back here battling in the bottom-5 again a year from now. Marks has no outs.