What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 5, 2023

chrisfont9 said:
Sure but it’s a blip, no? Starting in 2019, they had a rotation full of guys with long term deals, so they weren't adding without subtracting, which became hard to do with Price and Sale, and then they had all this money tied up. They should have prioritized keeping Eovaldi, but that's hindsight and brushes aside his missing time again and his future being increasingly tenuous (but probably somehow awesome anyway). Only now is the overpriced dreck all gone, the CBT reset, and the market ripe enough to take part. Last year's FA class was led by Carlos Rodon.

I certainly hope it's a blip, but we'll see.

If their off-season of pitching additions ends up going into next season with anything approaching this:

Bello, Sale, Crawford, Seth Lugo, Sean Manaea, Tanner Houck and James Paxton that isn't nearly good enough, does nothing to address the top half of the rotation deficiencies and does nothing to help the long term prospects of the organization - at least if contending for World Series titles is still a goal.

(I don't think it's going to look like the above, because I can't imagine that FSG hired someone that will continue that mindset after seeing the disastrous on the field results for half a decade).

chawson · Dec 5, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
Thank you - this is literally all the Red Sox have done since the 2019 season in terms of investing actual capital into their starting rotation, and unsurprisingly, they've been pretty darn terrible since then. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think they've made a single trade acquisition, a single high round draft pick (call it in the top 3 rounds) and obviously no FA money on long term solutions for the rotation that should be expected to be anywhere in the top half. It's all been short term, stop gap deals, reclamation projects and guys past their prime. Pivetta might have been the closest, but it's not like he was ever acquired with the supposition that he'd be a top 3 starter and while he's been pretty decent, I don't think anyone believes he is a top half of the rotation starter.

You're right that they didn't invest in the rotation — but for the most part, they were right not to! As frustrating as it was, I think the right course of action in several cases was to not acquire starting pitchers on lengthy commitments because they'd block rotation spots necessary for younger players to develop. The plan seemed to grab guys like Wacha, Richards, Kluber, Pérez and Hill, and trade or cut them when Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Seabold, Winckowski, Mata, Crawford, Walter or Murphy emerged.

I'm not saying it worked, but I don't think it's a bad strategy. I think they probably took it a little too far. Gausman and E-Rod would have each been solid signings at their prices. But we're certainly better off where we are with Bello and Crawford, and I'd argue that Whitlock, Houck and Murphy still have a shot to be solid rotation options, despite everyone's frustration.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
I think most people agree Eovaldi is at worst a 3 right? He's not an ace, and he's not a #1, but I don't think of him like a "4th or 5th" starter either. Maybe on an elite team he ends up as the 4th or 5th starter, but I don't think anyone would argue that he's not one of the top 90 starters in baseball (ie at worst an objective 3).

So if the Red Sox had actually committed real resources to a top half of the rotation starter I obviously wouldn't be saying they hadn't.

Sure, and we've also covered extensively how the Sox offered Eovaldi more to stay in Boston than he eventually signed for with Texas.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 5, 2023

chawson said:
You're right that they didn't invest in the rotation — but for the most part, they were right not to! As frustrating as it was, I think the right course of action in several cases was to not acquire starting pitchers on lengthy commitments because they'd block rotation spots necessary for younger players to develop. The plan seemed to grab guys like Wacha, Richards, Kluber, Pérez and Hill, and trade or cut them when Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Seabold, Winckowski, Mata, Crawford, Walter or Murphy emerged.

I'm not saying it worked, but I don't think it's a bad strategy. I think they probably took it a little too far. Gausman and E-Rod would have each been solid signings at their prices. But we're certainly better off where we are with Bello and Crawford, and I'd argue that Whitlock, Houck and Murphy still have a shot to be solid rotation options, despite everyone's frustration.

Sure, and we've also covered extensively how the Sox offered Eovaldi more to stay in Boston than he eventually signed for with Texas.

I'd argue that holding spots thinking those guys were good enough for that kind of place holding (aside from Bello and possibly Houck, though I don't recall him ever being anywhere on top 100 lists) was a pretty flawed plan.

I mean, if they end up grabbing short term pieces now to see who emerges from Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Perales, Gonzalez, Shane Drohan (assuming nobody takes him), Brandon Walter, Josh Winckowski, Chris Murphy, Monegro and Hunter Dobbins I'd certainly put my money on them continuing to not contend for anything of consequence (especially since you'd have wasted multiple years of Bello and Casas control waiting for the those most likely to be anything of consequence in MLB rotation - Gonzalez, Perales, Monegro - and if of those one becomes a top half of the rotation starter, that'd be a really good outcome).

We're not talking guys that are ranked like Lester, Buchholz and Papelbon here - and even of whom exactly one became a dependable top of the rotation starter.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Dec 5, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
The only two of those guys that were considered (or should have been considered) good enough for that kind of place holding were Bello and possibly Houck, though I don't recall him ever being anywhere on top 100 lists.

I mean, if they end up grabbing short term pieces now to see who emerges from Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Perales, Gonzalez, Shane Drohan (assuming nobody takes him), Brandon Walter, Josh Winckowski, Chris Murphy, Monegro and Hunter Dobbins I'd certainly put my money on them continuing to not contend for anything of consequence.

We're not talking guys that are ranked like Lester, Buchholz and Papelbon here - and even of whom exactly one became a dependable top of the rotation starter.

I dunno.... Whitlock seemed like a guy that could have ended up as a solid mid-rotation type. I think that the situation was that the Sox still had too many question marks at lots of other spots (Casas, Duran, 2B) that the strategy to see who could end up developing out of that group was sound, given the circumstances. It's a bit more of a challenge to break in emerging young talent if you're legitimately in the hunt for a playoff spot and having a young guy get 10-15 turns through the rotation during competitive years can really hurt.... and it's more clear than ever before that you're not developing anyone by sending them to AAA for longer periods.
It's pretty clear that Whitlock should stick in the bullpen. Crawford and Houck are still starter question marks. Bello is the only guy that looks like he'll stick. I still think Bloom's general direction was good (plenty of poor avoidable bumps he steered into along the way though).

chrisfont9 · Dec 5, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
I certainly hope it's a blip, but we'll see.

If their off-season of pitching additions ends up going into next season with anything approaching this:

Bello, Sale, Crawford, Seth Lugo, Sean Manaea, Tanner Houck and James Paxton that isn't nearly good enough, does nothing to address the top half of the rotation deficiencies and does nothing to help the long term prospects of the organization - at least if contending for World Series titles is still a goal.

(I don't think it's going to look like the above, because I can't imagine that FSG hired someone that will continue that mindset after seeing the disastrous on the field results for half a decade).

I don't think anyone's mindset is the issue. The issue is what the costs are on top SPs and how many teams are after them. If a guy wants to play somewhere else, he's going to do that. And it's never going to be smart to just blow away the competition for a single SP, they aren't the most stable assets most of the time. If you can't get the guy at the market rate because Boston isn't their favorite place, you're better off building depth and holding on to a few of your chips for later.

I will note, as I've mentioned before, that there's always next year too (Glasnow, Cole etc), given that most of this team's top assets are either just reaching their prime or not even there yet. We need at least one SP now but could save a few bucks for the next round as well.

jon abbey · Dec 5, 2023

Cole is not going to be a FA. If he opts out, NY can keep him by adding an additional year to his deal as negotiated in the original deal.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 5, 2023

chrisfont9 said:
I don't think anyone's mindset is the issue. The issue is what the costs are on top SPs and how many teams are after them. If a guy wants to play somewhere else, he's going to do that. And it's never going to be smart to just blow away the competition for a single SP, they aren't the most stable assets most of the time. If you can't get the guy at the market rate because Boston isn't their favorite place, you're better off building depth and holding on to a few of your chips for later.

I will note, as I've mentioned before, that there's always next year too (Glasnow, Cole etc), given that most of this team's top assets are either just reaching their prime or not even there yet. We need at least one SP now but could save a few bucks for the next round as well.

The costs are high - and they're also highly unlikely to be cheaper next year. It was relatively recently people were saying "just look at the 2023-24 market" Ohtani, Nola, Urias, Giolito, Flaherty, Yamamoto, etc, etc." Of course here is also where I'll point out that a nice house in the suburbs in most any place USA is more expensive than buying up a bunch of slums in developing countries and hoping you hit on all of them (hopefully that is generic enough to not be political as the other thread degraded into).

I don't think the Sox (or anyone) can play the entire rotation full of reclamation projects, injured old pitchers, short term deals and hope the entire industry is wrong about our prospects and we're right game and expect to be any good (Bello obviously doesn't count in that list).

Which again, I'm not saying to give Blake Snell $250m because he's a Boras guy and would probably take it. But also don't settle for another season that is over before it starts because your rotation is Bello, Sale, Crawford, Lugo, Houck, Whitlock, Tyler Mahle (just because I'm sick of typing James Paxton) and Chris Murphy and then acting surprised when guys that aren't really projected to be all that special end up not being all that good and guys who get hurt all the time get hurt.

RedOctober3829 · Dec 5, 2023

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1732130071593312763?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q

johnnywayback · Dec 5, 2023

I agree that they should target the top of the market, but I also think that a team with five solid starters can absolutely compete, especially with a stacked lineup and bullpen.

Sale, Bello, Imanaga, Lugo, and Crawford is a decent rotation. Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta, Schreiber, Bernardino is a really strong bullpen (with starting depth built in for when Sale gets hurt). And if we "settle" for Imanaga and Lugo, maybe we have money to upgrade from Alex Verdugo to Teoscar Hernandez. Or maybe we sign Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson and trade Houck for Tyler O'Neill. Or maybe we trade a couple of the prospects we didn't trade for Dylan Cease and get Brandon Drury to play 2B.

Point is that I think they need a couple guys who are better than Nick Pivetta in order for the rotation to not be a gaping hole, but there are lots of ways to improve the team that don't rely on them getting Yamamoto or Montgomery.

chrisfont9 · Dec 5, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
The costs are high - and they're also highly unlikely to be cheaper next year. It was relatively recently people were saying "just look at the 2023-24 market" Ohtani, Nola, Urias, Giolito, Flaherty, Yamamoto, etc, etc." Of course here is also where I'll point out that a nice house in the suburbs in most any place USA is more expensive than buying up a bunch of slums in developing countries and hoping you hit on all of them (hopefully that is generic enough to not be political as the other thread degraded into).

I don't think the Sox (or anyone) can play the entire rotation full of reclamation projects, injured old pitchers, short term deals and hope the entire industry is wrong about our prospects and we're right game and expect to be any good (Bello obviously doesn't count in that list).

Which again, I'm not saying to give Blake Snell $250m because he's a Boras guy and would probably take it. But also don't settle for another season that is over before it starts because your rotation is Bello, Sale, Crawford, Lugo, Houck, Whitlock, Tyler Mahle (just because I'm sick of typing James Paxton) and Chris Murphy and then acting surprised when guys that aren't really projected to be all that special end up not being all that good and guys who get hurt all the time get hurt.

The prices won't come down but the number of suitors at the top of the market probably will. If, say, five of the biggest spenders walk away with the biggest SP prizes (including Ohtani) this year then some number fewer than five will be back throwing huge sums around next year. If the Yankees get Yamamoto, they keep Cole at some new number (as Jon points out), plus Rodon, then I think they are out of the Glasnow market, right? Same with some others.

SouthernBoSox · Dec 5, 2023

johnnywayback said:
I agree that they should target the top of the market, but I also think that a team with five solid starters can absolutely compete, especially with a stacked lineup and bullpen.

Sale, Bello, Imanaga, Lugo, and Crawford is a decent rotation. Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta, Schreiber, Bernardino is a really strong bullpen (with starting depth built in for when Sale gets hurt). And if we "settle" for Imanaga and Lugo, maybe we have money to upgrade from Alex Verdugo to Teoscar Hernandez. Or maybe we sign Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson and trade Houck for Tyler O'Neill. Or maybe we trade a couple of the prospects we didn't trade for Dylan Cease and get Brandon Drury to play 2B.

Point is that I think they need a couple guys who are better than Nick Pivetta in order for the rotation to not be a gaping hole, but there are lots of ways to improve the team that don't rely on them getting Yamamoto or Montgomery.

I completely agree with this. Get Lugo, Imanaga, Duvall, a good starting baseman, maybe another right handed outfielder and call it an offseason.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 5, 2023

chrisfont9 said:
The prices won't come down but the number of suitors at the top of the market probably will. If, say, five of the biggest spenders walk away with the biggest SP prizes (including Ohtani) this year then some number fewer than five will be back throwing huge sums around next year. If the Yankees get Yamamoto, they keep Cole at some new number (as Jon points out), plus Rodon, then I think they are out of the Glasnow market, right? Same with some others.

Not for nothing, but I don't necessarily agree with this. You're going to have to contend with big market teams wanting high caliber SPs every year. Say LAD get Ohtani, NYM get YY, Montgomery goes back to Texas and Snell goes to Seattle (all totally reasonable). That means in competition for Burnes and Fried you're still going to have the Mets probably trying to add to YY and Senga, SF doing whatever they do, LAD probably looking at adding someone as well and Atlanta either trying to retain Fried or go from there. Not to mention the Phillies probably looking to add to Nola and Wheeler.

If someone wants to make the argument that big money FA spending on pitchers is a fool's errand because of the high number of awful contracts, I'd certainly hear that case. But the way to combat that isn't to have 9 starters that are only 4 or 5 in terms of quality. That leads to the 2015 Red Sox (or the 2022 Red Sox, or the 2023 Red Sox).

You have to either develop them (which the Sox haven't bothered to spend draft capital on acquiring for half a decade (both DDski and Bloom share blame for this) and has led to a situation where your only 3 real starting prospects have a combined 10 starts at the AA level) or trade for them. Which again, I endorse doing, but you're probably going to have to include at minimum one of Mayer, Anthony or Teel if you want to get anyone of consequence, with an outside shot of that being something like all of Bleis, Yorke and Houck instead.

chrisfont9 · Dec 5, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
Not for nothing, but I don't necessarily agree with this. You're going to have to contend with big market teams wanting high caliber SPs every year. Say LAD get Ohtani, NYM get YY, Montgomery goes back to Texas and Snell goes to Seattle (all totally reasonable). That means in competition for Burnes and Fried you're still going to have the Mets probably trying to add to YY and Senga, SF doing whatever they do, LAD probably looking at adding someone as well and Atlanta either trying to retain Fried or go from there. Not to mention the Phillies probably looking to add to Nola and Wheeler.

If someone wants to make the argument that big money FA spending on pitchers is a fool's errand because of the high number of awful contracts, I'd certainly hear that case. But the way to combat that isn't to have 9 starters that are only 4 or 5 in terms of quality. That leads to the 2015 Red Sox (or the 2022 Red Sox, or the 2023 Red Sox).

You have to either develop them (which the Sox haven't bothered to spend draft capital on acquiring for half a decade (both DDski and Bloom share blame for this) and has led to a situation where your only 3 real starting prospects have a combined 10 starts at the AA level) or trade for them. Which again, I endorse doing, but you're probably going to have to include at minimum one of Mayer, Anthony or Teel if you want to get anyone of consequence, with an outside shot of that being something like all of Bleis, Yorke and Houck instead.

To your first point, maybe, we shall see. Wheeler has an opt out so Philly will start next offseason trying to retain him probably. If the Sox just keep getting boxed out (and even if they don't, frankly), I suspect that part of the reason to bring in Breslow is that he might be better at making those tricky draft-a-SP decisions that a lot of teams have invested in, and gotten burned.

The trade part is really the area where the Sox control their destiny, which may be why they're dropping hints about that. The alternative to draft-and-develop is deal-for-and-develop? Rule 5 too (e.g. Whitlock). If Breslow is some pitch whisperer, then maybe this is a better bet.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 5, 2023

chrisfont9 said:
To your first point, maybe, we shall see. Wheeler has an opt out so Philly will start next offseason trying to retain him probably. If the Sox just keep getting boxed out (and even if they don't, frankly), I suspect that part of the reason to bring in Breslow is that he might be better at making those tricky draft-a-SP decisions that a lot of teams have invested in, and gotten burned.

The trade part is really the area where the Sox control their destiny, which may be why they're dropping hints about that. The alternative to draft-and-develop is deal-for-and-develop? Rule 5 too (e.g. Whitlock). If Breslow is some pitch whisperer, then maybe this is a better bet.

I generally speaking agree with the first point - at least about the draft and develop part. But even with that, you're still talking about a very long term build. Which in some instances is all well and good, but that is going to be a tough sell in Boston after you've already had 4 years of a rebuild and even after that 4 years are still a long ways from contention. It's going to be an even tougher sell to FAs whom - as you mentioned - might have any number of reasons for choosing "not Boston" but after lets say 8 years of sitting out big time free agency and (if they don't swing big trades) not truly contending for jack, is going to be an even tougher sell in 2028 than it is right now.

It could end up being the Braves/Houston, and I'm not disputing that possibility exists, but they're going to have to put a heck of a lot more into investing pitching capital than they have for this to work.

I really don't think it's fair to label anyone as "that much" of a pitch whisperer. Steele is obviously a success story but beyond that, Assad had 10 good starts where he went basically 5ip every time (53ip as a starter this year). Wicks it's waaaay to early to tell. It's not like it worked with Caleb Killian, Hayden Wesneski, Keegan Thompson or Ben Brown (at the AAA level). But even with Steele becoming a Cy Young contender they also went that "lots of depth" route, with better bets than guys we're discussing here (Stroman, I'd argue Tallion but others would argue against that), and then some old dudes and reclamation prospects (Smyly whatever is left of Hendricks at 33/34) and they still missed the playoffs.

*Now, I do think they can go the trade route and - quite frankly - be more likely to have success than big name FAs. But I'd bet the issue they're running into there is they don't have really any pitching talent to trade FOR pitching talent (ala Sanchez in the Beckett deal, Kopech in the Sale deal or even Espinoza for someone like Pomeranz). Someone like Crawford or Houck might get you in the conversation for older SPs the way Fossum did for Schilling, but you generally need pitching in the minors to trade for cost-controlled young starters, and the Red Sox have incredibly little of that.

I think a lot of us like Gonzalez, Perales and Monegro (or at least we trust @JM3 opinion on them) but none of them are seen among the major prospect sites as anywhere close to as valuable as Kopech, Sanchez or Espinoza.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 5, 2023

JM3 said:
I assume you mean Perales & you aren't just a really big Railin Perez fan (not a bad curve to be ahead of - wouldn't be at all surprised if he was a top 60 guy next year). But yeah, they're all fun, but all pretty far away & as such wouldn't really have significant trade value. SoxProspects is also not nearly on my level of Yordanny excitement. They still only have him 20 & have Drohan as their 3rd highest pitching prospect at 15. Another piece of that is that prospect rankers simply do not rank pitchers as high as they used to because they're more fully factoring in the risk factors, but your general point is certainly true.

But yeah, I think FA money on who whoever Brailillard thinks are the best options, is the way to go this off season for the most part, but we shall see. I don't really want to see a lot of all-in panic type stuff because Breslow's job security is as good as it will get (until he wins a World Series)*, & his knowledge of the system is as low as it will get, so it doesn't seem like a great time to overreact to the angst of the fanbase. But we shall see.

*in before DD only got 1 year after his

I love me some Railin', who doesn't. (fixed it).

It's why I think the Sox are in kind of a tough spot. They have money to spend, but have been seen in the game as kind of an afterthought for the past few seasons. Of course there are individual defenses to Eflin choosing Tampa Bay or Drury choosing LAA, but when it happens enough, it becomes a worrying pattern.

They have what I think we can reasonably all agree is (at worst) a pretty good farm system, call it top 7 in the game. But there is really nothing across the industry in terms of starting pitching in that system. Everyone adores Bello (I'd guess) but I don't think Houck or Crawford have the same "value" that someone like Kopech did in 2016 across the game. I could be wrong, but, put another way, I think Edward Cabrera would be easier to acquire than Ricky Tiedemann, just to draw a very rough parallel.

So they're going to have to either a) suck it up and overpay for someone that has some warts but is a good projection to be a #2 or better (Montgomery - whom I like; Snell - whom I don't); b) lose a trade in terms of high end positional prospect value value to fill a need at the top of their rotation; c) go with a bunch of 3 types, but still pay more for them than they're worth (this would be something like signing Stroman and Rodriguez) and probably a 4 type (Lugo); d) go with what are basically all fliers.

It's going to be really interesting to see what Breslow does, but he's not in a spot where there is an easy fix.

I agree he shouldn't "overreact" in that as much as I love the talent, Ohtani doesn't make a ton of sense, Snell isn't a great fit and trading Mayer for one year of Bieber (whom I do like) would be insanity. But I do think he needs to "react" because even if his job is safe, if we assume he wants to actually contend to win titles - as apparently is still the goal - they do need to start adding for the long term at the MLB or high minors levels. One year deals to Lugo, Paxton, Flaherty, Lorenzen, whomever are highly unlikely to achieve that because their AAA and AA pitching isn't so great that it makes any real sense to bank on them a la Lester, Buchholz, Papelbon, Bowden and Masterson - which even in that is a cautionary tale as you got a true #1, a great closer an exceptional talent who could never stay healthy and however we want to characterize Justin Masterson.)

(Which Breslow should have gotten a first hand look at since he was in fact part of the 2015 Boston "He's the Ace" Red Sox as they made sure to hold spots open for Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Michael Kopech, Anderson Espinoza and ostensibly Matt Barnes, though they might have fully given up on him as a SP by that point and I really don't care to look it up).

For what it's worth, I wanted to add two groupings of prospects of execs that I hold in a) the highest regard possible (Theo) and b) very high regard (Cherington) so as not to seem like I'm trying to dump on Bloom. But there is nobody in the system on the pitching side that at present is seen anywhere like Lester, Buchholz, Papelbon, Kopech, Espinoza or even Henry Owens - I totally forgot he was widely seen as a top 60 prospect going into 2014 and top 40 going into 2015).

YTF · Dec 5, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
I love me some Railin', who doesn't. (fixed it).

It's why I think the Sox are in kind of a tough spot. They have money to spend, but have been seen in the game as kind of an afterthought for the past few seasons. Of course there are individual defenses to Eflin choosing Tampa Bay or Drury choosing LAA, but when it happens enough, it becomes a worrying pattern.

On the flip side there has been a change in leadership and it seems a change in philosophy as well. Agents know that and I'm sure that message gets conveyed to players that might show concern.

Petagine in a Bottle · Dec 5, 2023

The alternative is to identify and acquire good pitchers who aren’t already seen as aces. The most valuable pitchers in baseball last year included guys like Steele, Eflin, Senga, Gray, Cease, Luzardo, Bradish, Montgomery- there’s all kinds of guys on there and most of them were not considered aces a year or so ago (or whenever they were acquired). The idea that the only way to acquire top line pitching is to get guys who are already considered great is misguided, I think.

Jack Rabbit Slim · Dec 5, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
and probably a 4 type (Lugo)

Sorry to nitpick on a much larger post, but I think you are selling Seth Lugo short. He doesn't have much of a track record as a starter, but last year he threw 146.1 innings and his ranks among pitchers with a minimum 100 IP is 31/127 for ERA, 34/127 for FIP, and 30/127 for xFIP. That is much better than a #4 starter, arguably a solid #2. He is 34 so not going to get a long deal, but adding him at 3/45 as a secondary piece to one of Yamamoto/Gilbert/Burnes/Montgomery would be a pretty good offseason (on the pitching side anyway).

chawson · Dec 5, 2023

Jack Rabbit Slim said:
Sorry to nitpick on a much larger post, but I think you are selling Seth Lugo short. He doesn't have much of a track record as a starter, but last year he threw 146.1 innings and his ranks among pitchers with a minimum 100 IP is 31/127 for ERA, 34/127 for FIP, and 30/127 for xFIP. That is much better than a #4 starter, arguably a solid #2. He is 34 so not going to get a long deal, but adding him at 3/45 as a secondary piece to one of Yamamoto/Gilbert/Burnes/Montgomery would be a pretty good offseason (on the pitching side anyway).

Lugo strikes me as a pretty similar asset to Pivetta (at least the post-demotion 2023 version). Lugo throws more strikes, but he’s also older and almost as homer-prone.

He’s a very good add if we’re trying to approximate Pivetta’s production, but I’d be surprised if both were on the team next year.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 5, 2023

YTF said:
On the flip side there has been a change in leadership and it seems a change in philosophy as well. Agents know that and I'm sure that message gets conveyed to players that might show concern.

True enough. Though until a move is actually made that demonstrates said change in philosophy, I can see why players or agents would be apprehensive. I hope (and believe) there will be a change. I also admit that until I see it happen, I’m cant in good faith say there is no way they continue to go the 2005 / 2015 / 2020-2023 starting pitching route. Which - in my opinion at least - ultimately doesn’t work.

Petagine in a Bottle said:
The alternative is to identify and acquire good pitchers who aren’t already seen as aces. The most valuable pitchers in baseball last year included guys like Steele, Eflin, Senga, Gray, Cease, Luzardo, Bradish, Montgomery- there’s all kinds of guys on there and most of them were not considered aces a year or so ago (or whenever they were acquired). The idea that the only way to acquire top line pitching is to get guys who are already considered great is misguided, I think.

I tend to agree, but none of those guys were acquired as one year stop gaps where nothing of value was given up for them. Sure, a situation like Saturn Nuts (still a phenomenal nickname) happens, but it’s infrequent. The Sox probably hit the closest they’re going to on Bradish with Crawford, though Bradish had far better results in the high minors as a starter than not only Crawford but anyone in the Sox system (excepting Bello, clearly).

Jack Rabbit Slim said:
Sorry to nitpick on a much larger post, but I think you are selling Seth Lugo short. He doesn't have much of a track record as a starter, but last year he threw 146.1 innings and his ranks among pitchers with a minimum 100 IP is 31/127 for ERA, 34/127 for FIP, and 30/127 for xFIP. That is much better than a #4 starter, arguably a solid #2. He is 34 so not going to get a long deal, but adding him at 3/45 as a secondary piece to one of Yamamoto/Gilbert/Burnes/Montgomery would be a pretty good offseason (on the pitching side anyway).

Possibly. Though at my core I find it tough to bank on a guy that had a career year at 33 that was an outlier in terms of his entire career up to that point making that his new baseline. He was excellent last year (in less than 150ip,), replicating it is a different matter. If he were 27, sure. At 33, I think there is a ton of “Rob Refsnyder 2022” downside. Not saying he (or RR) are “bad”, but that I don’t necessarily think an outlier season that far into a career should then be penciled in as the new baseline with an increased role.

To be fair - I’d be more than fine with in a rotation like Montgomery, Bello, Gilbert, Lugo and Crawford/Houck. But if your season hinges on this being the new baseline for 34 year old Seth Lugo, 34 year old Sale, and Imánaga, I think the outcome would be a lot like 2020-2023 and much less like 2003-2019. Not to mention being in a spot in 2024 where they again need to try and find at least two and possibly three top half of the rotation starters. Again.

chrisfont9 · Dec 5, 2023

chawson said:
Lugo strikes me as a pretty similar asset to Pivetta (at least the post-demotion 2023 version). Lugo throws more strikes, but he’s also older and almost as homer-prone.

He’s a very good add if we’re trying to approximate Pivetta’s production, but I’d be surprised if both were on the team next year.

JM3's stuff up above about Lugo increasing/improving a sweeper would explain the Sox' interest, i.e. they think he's about to improve on his past production. Buy now before the price goes up?

Jack Rabbit Slim · Dec 5, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
Possibly. Though at my core I find it tough to bank on a guy that had a career year at 33 that was an outlier in terms of his entire career up to that point making that his new baseline. He was excellent last year (in less than 150ip,), replicating it is a different matter. If he were 27, sure. At 33, I think there is a ton of “Rob Refsnyder 2022” downside. Not saying he (or RR) are “bad”, but that I don’t necessarily think an outlier season that far into a career should then be penciled in as the new baseline with an increased role.

There is definitely more uncertainty with Lugo but I think that is also reflected in the price. If he was a regular 33 year old starting pitcher that just put up that line, he is probably looking at $100M+ instead of half that.

Also, calling it a career year seems like a strange use of that term since he has mostly been a reliever. It's not like he has been trying and failing as a starter, he was just given the chance and excelled. His ERA and FIP are basically in line with his career numbers (mostly from relief understandably) so it's not completely out of nowhere.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
But if your season hinges on this being the new baseline for 34 year old Seth Lugo, 34 year old Sale, and Imánaga, I think the outcome would be a lot like 2020-2023 and much less like 2003-2019.

I think I was pretty clear that I would prefer Lugo as a secondary piece in addition to a better pitcher, with Imanaga not on the list. Not sure who you think you are arguing against here.

I personally find it baffling that you would rather give Giolito 2/45+ (from the other thread) than 3/45 to Lugo. That just seems like a case of chasing a name instead of results.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
Not to mention being in a spot in 2024 where they again need to try and find at least two and possibly three top half of the rotation starters. Again.

I presume you mean 2025, but I don't follow how you are getting here. Sale is the only pitcher that needs replacing after 2024 (with say Gilbert, Bello, Lugo, and Crawford/Houck for the other 4 spots), and frankly given his uncertainty that doesn't seem like it will be that hard.

Mike473 · Dec 5, 2023

One of the theories was that ownership liked Bloom's plan, but didn't think one of his strengths was closing high profile deals or making that high risk move. As a result, he was let go, and a change was made to address that weakness. We will see in the next few weeks if that theory holds up. I think ownership might have thrown Bloom overboard to satisfy the crowd but has no desire to change direction. I hope not, but the moves being discussed in the event no high profile signings are made don't seem to be outside of Bloom's ability.

chrisfont9 · Dec 5, 2023

Update! The Sox have a few more arms to use in a deal...

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 6, 2023

Jack Rabbit Slim said:
Also, calling it a career year seems like a strange use of that term since he has mostly been a reliever. It's not like he has been trying and failing as a starter, he was just given the chance and excelled. His ERA and FIP are basically in line with his career numbers (mostly from relief understandably) so it's not completely out of nowhere.

I think I was pretty clear that I would prefer Lugo as a secondary piece in addition to a better pitcher.

I personally find it baffling that you would rather give Giolito 2/45+ (from the other thread) than 3/45 to Lugo. That just seems like a case of chasing a name instead of results.

I presume you mean 2025, but I don't follow how you are getting here. Sale is the only pitcher that needs replacing after 2024 (with say Gilbert, Bello, Lugo, and Crawford/Houck for the other 4 spots), and frankly given his uncertainty that doesn't seem like it will be that hard.

I tried editing down the quotes to respond to for the sake of reading, please forgive me if that takes anything out of context - isn't my intent.

FWIW, Lugo has started 64 games in his career (26 last year) with a marks of a 4.01ERA, 1.279WHIP, and a 3.53 k/bb ratio. He's also pitched in all large parks, and in divisions full of large parks (as a Met and Padre). Of course it's possible last year was his new baseline - and possible he could / would be even better. It's not the bet I'd make, but I don't discount the possibility. I see him and I just can't get the name Ross Stripling out of my head where he's fine as a depth piece and occasional starter, but if you bank on him to be a full time starter, it's not going to go well. This could of course be unfair, and I admit that, but it's how I perceive Lugo or basically any mid 30s relief pitcher that has a "breakout" 30 or older with an entire career to point to.

To that end, oddly, I'd rather the Sox believe in Lugo enough to give him 3/$45m than sign him (or Giolito, or Montas or Mahle or...) to 1/$15m or whatever. I don't believe the yearly rearranging of deck chairs in the rotation is going to lead to any type of sustained success. Lugo is not someone I personally want in the top half of the rotation, but if they have conviction in him to go 3/$45m I'd rather that than more one year fliers.

To the above, on Giolito, he is also only someone I want if the Sox can have some control over the term. I would like it to be something like 2/$45m guaranteed with a team option for 2026 at $25m and 2027 at $30m. Some of the projections I've seen on him are roughly 4/$70m (which ultimately I'd do) but I'd prefer the team options with more money. No idea if Giolito would want the $70m guaranteed or something like a guaranteed $45m with a chance to make that $100m, and obviously no idea how reliable the projections (Heyman being Heyman and all, even are https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/white-sox-news/lucas-giolito-is-expected-to-earn-a-lucrative-deal-this-offseason/518212/)

So even though I personally like Giolito to Lugo (because of the prospect pedigree, how good he was for a 3 season stretch, his ability to eat innings and because he will only be 29 instead of 34) I'd rather them have such conviction in someone to sign Lugo at 3/$45m (like you suggested) vs 1 yr / $20m for Gio. I hope that makes sense.

To the last point - I'm fan #1a (at worst) in the idea to acquire Logan Gilbert. I'd be more than fine with the off-season being adding Gilbert to make that rotation Bello, Gilbert, Lugo, Crawford and then finding someone else to slot in to the top half of the rotation in 2025 so make it "Pitcher X", Bello, Gilbert, Lugo, Crawford. I was admittedly thinking a short term deal for Lugo.

However - and not to you or anyone specifically @Jack Rabbit Slim - I'm very against the continuation of patching the rotation together on a year by year basis with one year deals (or two year "injury deals" where you're only getting one year, ie Paxton or whatever).

What I don't want happening is going into future seasons with yet another rotation comprised of error bars, old, injured starters, old former relief pitchers, and a reliance on prospects that aren't anywhere near the top 100. I'm not trying to ascribe that to you specifically, for the record. It's more a general comment on my distaste for the way the Red Sox have handled the starting rotation since the 2020 offseason (before Covid was a thing when they were planning for a full season of baseball).

As @JM3 has said, ultimately I think we have to give any new PoBO the benefit of the doubt, and of course I'll be rooting for whatever players he acquires. But I'm hoping what he acquires for starting pitching is a lot more than one year rentals and 30plus relief pitchers that have had blips of starting success. Again, this is more a philosophical perspective than what any one poster is or is not suggesting.

soxhop411 · Dec 6, 2023

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1732438056425177092

Source: Yoshinobu Yamamoto is expected to meet with the Yankees in the U.S. on Monday. The Yankees are seen as one of the top candidates to sign Yamamoto, along with the Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers, and Cubs.

Click to expand...

Sox Pride · Dec 6, 2023

soxhop411 said:
View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1732438056425177092

Doesn't even mention the Mets

Dewey'sCannon · Dec 6, 2023

With all these moves to build up the pitching depth, I expect to see some of that depth moved in a trade for a SP (Burnes. Gilbert, Cease, Keller, etc.) and/or a bat for 2B or OF. Not guaranteeing that this will happen, but the timing of these moves suggest to me they are acquiring assets so that they can move some of them in an effort to land a big fish. Everyone wants pitching, so they more of it you have, the more likely you'll be able to make a deal.

InsideTheParker · Dec 6, 2023

Sox Pride said:
Doesn't even mention the Mets

Or visiting the Red Sox. Given what we've heard about Ohtani, I wonder if the East Coast is a hard sell, with all the cold weather and rainouts. If you're the Sox FO, what do you say to convince Yamamoto, apart from Here is the Money? Do we even know if he and Yoshida like each other? Having been on the same team doesn't guarantee that.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Dec 6, 2023

InsideTheParker said:
Or visiting the Red Sox. Given what we've heard about Ohtani, I wonder if the East Coast is a hard sell, with all the cold weather and rainouts. If you're the Sox FO, what do you say to convince Yamamoto, apart from Here is the Money? Do we even know if he and Yoshida like each other? Having been on the same team doesn't guarantee that.

Great education. good museums. Fantastic seafood.

YTF · Dec 6, 2023

Sandy Leon Trotsky said:
Great education. good museums. Fantastic seafood.

Most knowledgeable fans in baseball.

YTF · Dec 6, 2023

Dewey'sCannon said:
With all these moves to build up the pitching depth, I expect to see some of that depth moved in a trade for a SP (Burnes. Gilbert, Cease, Keller, etc.) and/or a bat for 2B or OF. Not guaranteeing that this will happen, but the timing of these moves suggest to me they are acquiring assets so that they can move some of them in an effort to land a big fish. Everyone wants pitching, so they more of it you have, the more likely you'll be able to make a deal.

I agree and posted similar in the "Fitts" thread.

YTF said:
I agree with your last sentence here. The one thing that nearly every team is looking for is good, young cost controlled pitching and that includes Boston. Going into the off season most of us felt that Boston didn't have good expendable arms that we could afford to offer as trade chips in return for players that could fill imediate needs. This type of move inches them toward being in a better position to move another pitcher(s).

Scoops Bolling · Dec 6, 2023

I don't agree with the "these moves to build depth means some of it probably gets traded for something else" take. The Red Sox had a bottom 10 bullpen last year, primarily because they had 6 different relievers pitch at least 20 IP with an ERA over 5, along with a 7th at 4.91 (Chris Murphy). That number isn't even including Whitlock or Kluber, it's just pure relievers. Adding guys like Slaten, Campbell, and Weissert means you have arms with real stuff and potential taking the innings that were going to Joe Jacques, Richard Bleier, Mauricio Llovera, etc. The team still needs to add starters, but almost all the guys they've been getting make perfect sense in a "we ran a lot of awful arms out there last year, let's biuld a pile of arms who might actually turn into something good and give them those innings instead of the bad retreads". The Sox had really bad pitching depth. Now they have some depth, they need starters. Good thing there are a number of those on the market.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 6, 2023

InsideTheParker said:
Or visiting the Red Sox. Given what we've heard about Ohtani, I wonder if the East Coast is a hard sell, with all the cold weather and rainouts. If you're the Sox FO, what do you say to convince Yamamoto, apart from Here is the Money? Do we even know if he and Yoshida like each other? Having been on the same team doesn't guarantee that.

To be fair, the Sox, especially under Henry, have a pretty good track record of success with Japanese players overall.

Matsuzaka - at least from the limited stuff I've heard, seems to endorse FSG and the team. Koji was always a good pitcher but he became a star in Boston, and ostensibly still raves about his time with the Sox. Tazawa was a key member of that 2013 team as well. Okajima was an all star and ROY candidate in Boston as set up reliever. I'm sure there is a team out there that I'm not thinking of, but those are four pitchers you can point to as being very successful for this franchise under this ownership group.

That's a pretty good track record, above and beyond Yoshida.

So there are things they CAN point to, which are at least compelling arguments.

Though, I think literally the only chance the Red Sox have of actually landing YY is if he IS really tight with Yoshida. Even then he'd have to be tight enough where he instructs his agent to go back to Boston with the best offer he receives elsewhere.

Only chance I can see the Sox landing him IS them being close enough to where he tells all the other teams "give me your best offer and I'll decide tonight", takes that offer (call it 10/$300m from Cohen) and then instructs his agent to call Boston and say "because you have Yoshida, since Cohen offered me 10/$300m if you offer 10/$325m I'll sign here now" and they do it. I have no idea if they're former teammates, friends, were in each other's weddings or what. But short of that type of scenario, I see no chance he ends up in Boston.

Dewey'sCannon · Dec 6, 2023

Scoops Bolling said:
I don't agree with the "these moves to build depth means some of it probably gets traded for something else" take. The Red Sox had a bottom 10 bullpen last year, primarily because they had 6 different relievers pitch at least 20 IP with an ERA over 5, along with a 7th at 4.91 (Chris Murphy). That number isn't even including Whitlock or Kluber, it's just pure relievers. Adding guys like Slaten, Campbell, and Weissert means you have arms with real stuff and potential taking the innings that were going to Joe Jacques, Richard Bleier, Mauricio Llovera, etc. The team still needs to add starters, but almost all the guys they've been getting make perfect sense in a "we ran a lot of awful arms out there last year, let's biuld a pile of arms who might actually turn into something good and give them those innings instead of the bad retreads". The Sox had really bad pitching depth. Now they have some depth, they need starters. Good thing there are a number of those on the market.

I agree that there was room for improvement in the bullpen. But not all of these guys are going to fit on the roster (25 or 40) - it's a numbers game, and somebody's (or some bodies) gonna get moved to make room for some better starting pitching.

SouthernBoSox · Dec 6, 2023

View: https://twitter.com/willsammon/status/1732533448596688927?s=46

There is an ominous omission from this list.

Dewey'sCannon · Dec 6, 2023

WRT Yamamoto, it seems that we really just don't know what preferences or bias he may have toward one city (or team) or another. So if there are six teams in the final round of negotiations, I think are chances seem to be 1 in 6 - no real reason to think they are any better or worse than anyone else, all of whom probably made it this far based on their willingness to pony up the money necessary to sign him.

soxhop411 · Dec 6, 2023

SouthernBoSox said:
View: https://twitter.com/willsammon/status/1732533448596688927?s=46

There is an ominous omission from this list.

Seven teams, including five known clubs, have emerged as serious suitors for Yamamoto, league sources said. In no particular order, the list is believed to include the New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays and the Mets, plus two more unidentified clubs.

bolded for emphasis.... ", plus two more unidentified clubs"

ie one of those could be BOS, but we are not leaking

Petagine in a Bottle · Dec 6, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
To be fair, the Sox, especially under Henry, have a pretty good track record of success with Japanese players overall.

Matsuzaka - at least from the limited stuff I've heard, seems to endorse FSG and the team. Koji was always a good pitcher but he became a star in Boston, and ostensibly still raves about his time with the Sox. Tazawa was a key member of that 2013 team as well. Okajima was an all star and ROY candidate in Boston as set up reliever. I'm sure there is a team out there that I'm not thinking of, but those are four pitchers you can point to as being very successful for this franchise under this ownership group.

That's a pretty good track record, above and beyond Yoshida.

So there are things they CAN point to, which are at least compelling arguments.

Though, I think literally the only chance the Red Sox have of actually landing YY is if he IS really tight with Yoshida. Even then he'd have to be tight enough where he instructs his agent to go back to Boston with the best offer he receives elsewhere.

Only chance I can see the Sox landing him IS them being close enough to where he tells all the other teams "give me your best offer and I'll decide tonight", takes that offer (call it 10/$300m from Cohen) and then instructs his agent to call Boston and say "because you have Yoshida, since Cohen offered me 10/$300m if you offer 10/$325m I'll sign here now" and they do it. I have no idea if they're former teammates, friends, were in each other's weddings or what. But short of that type of scenario, I see no chance he ends up in Boston.

They’d have to really really, like uncomfortably close, for this kind of scenario to be realistic.

chrisfont9 · Dec 6, 2023

InsideTheParker said:
Or visiting the Red Sox. Given what we've heard about Ohtani, I wonder if the East Coast is a hard sell, with all the cold weather and rainouts. If you're the Sox FO, what do you say to convince Yamamoto, apart from Here is the Money? Do we even know if he and Yoshida like each other? Having been on the same team doesn't guarantee that.

Japan's weather is much more like our east coast. Preseason games can be like playing in winter. Central Japan is philly-NJ-DC-VA levels of hot and humid all summer. They have a few domes and Orix plays some of its games in the Kyocera Dome, but others in Kobe's open air stadium and of course away game sites. Doesn't mean Yamamoto likes rain, but it's not like he's a so-cal kid.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 6, 2023

Petagine in a Bottle said:
They’d have to really really, like uncomfortably close, for this kind of scenario to be realistic.

I agree. I don’t think the Sox signing YY at this point is realistic.

Which is why I’d been advocating Nola as the target. It’s also why I’d move Mayer if need be to get a cost controlled, younger SP2 type.

Now that Nola is an impossibility, I think the Sox should now get Boras in a room, ask him the number to sign Montgomery on the spot, and give it to him - my guess is $175m (or a bit more than Nola).

It’s assuredly an overpay, but I don’t think it’s at all likely the Sox get Yamamoto. I’m not a fan of Snell. I doubt the Sox deal Mayer (and I’d rather not if it can be helped). But I’m even less of a fan of the approach to the rotation from 2020 - present.

SouthernBoSox · Dec 6, 2023

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1732542969213825194?s=46

I’m trying to not read to much into that quote but it sounds kinda shitty.

soxhop411 · Dec 6, 2023

SouthernBoSox said:
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1732542969213825194?s=46

I’m trying to not read to much into that quote but it sounds kinda shitty.

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1732543326593659168

I mean is he not correct here? the entire pitching market seems to be held up by Ohtani...

I assume agents are wanting to see what he signs for before agreeing to deals for their clients

snowmanny · Dec 6, 2023

InsideTheParker said:
Or visiting the Red Sox. Given what we've heard about Ohtani, I wonder if the East Coast is a hard sell, with all the cold weather and rainouts. If you're the Sox FO, what do you say to convince Yamamoto, apart from Here is the Money?

"Here is all the Money."

GPO Man · Dec 6, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
I agree. I don’t think the Sox signing YY at this point is realistic.

Which is why I’d been advocating Nola as the target. It’s also why I’d move Mayer if need be to get a cost controlled, younger SP2 type.

Now that Nola is an impossibility, I think the Sox should now get Boras in a room, ask him the number to sign Montgomery on the spot, and give it to him - my guess is $175m (or a bit more than Nola).

It’s assuredly an overpay, but I don’t think it’s at all likely the Sox get Yamamoto. I’m not a fan of Snell. I doubt the Sox deal Mayer (and I’d rather not if it can be helped). But I’m even less of a fan of the approach to the rotation from 2020 - present.

Agreed on Montgomery. Ideally, he’d be our #2 but he can serve as our #1 if Yamamoto doesn’t work out. We need to pay him so he doesn’t return to Texas.

soxhop411 · Dec 6, 2023

New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged some disappointment that more wasn’t done in the pitching department over the past three days.

“In a perfect world, we’re walking out of here with starting pitching and we’re feeling really good about that,” said Breslow before flying back to Boston Wednesday night. “We’ve tried to advance the ball as much as possible. We’re probably not alone in being a little disappointed on that front. But we can only control what we can control.”

In fairness, few other teams returned home with their pitching needs satisfied. Top free agents Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto remain on the market, as does Jordan Montgomery. A handful of trade candidates, such as Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber, remain available, though the Red Sox have indicated an aversion to such rentals who can qualify for free agency in a year or two.

It may take a decision on Yamamoto’s part to shake things loose at the top end of the free agent pitching market. But as some reports suggest that the 25-year-old righthander might get a deal worth upwards of $300 million, it’s unknown how involved the Red Sox are.

Asked directly whether he had met here with the Wasserman Group that represents Yamamoto, Breslow responded: “We’ve spoken to a broad group of agents,” he said. “And I’m not sure that it’s overly productive to say yes or no on particular ones, especially as they are connected to certain players.”

More pointedly, asked whether the Sox had scheduled a visit with Yamamoto next week when he tours some prospective cities, Breslow wouldn’t offer anything.

“I appreciate the question,” said Breslow. “I’m not going to answer it, but I appreciate the question.”

It’s important to realize that it’s still relatively early on the baseball offseason calendar, especially given the slow-play that has typified the industry’s recent offseasons and brought signings and trades to a crawl in the early going. The start of spring training remains two months away, more than enough time to teams to work on roster-building.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/12/when-it-comes-to-rotation-red-sox-have-quantity-but-still-lack-quality-mcadam.html

What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?

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