The Sox could always eat part/all of that in consideration for a lesser expected return on Seattle's end.
What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
I don't think it's a "deterrent" if both sides are open to making a "baseball trade", and probably with the Sox technically losing on the "value side" in order to fill the more scarce resource (starting pitching).
Seattle is one of the few teams that has plenty of SPs (Miami and maaaaaybe Cleveland are the only others I can think of). They also have a pretty bad offense with very little around one absolute stud, and they just lost one of their best producing offensive players (Suarez) and traded away one with high upside that hasn't been consistent at the MLB level (Kelenic).
They already have two aces (Castillo and Kirby), they have two versions of Kutter Crawford (I'd argue they're a bit better than Crawford, but who knows because it's really tough to isolate out predictive data from Crawford the SP vs Crawford the relief pitcher) in Woo and Miller. They have Ray coming back this year as well. No idea how legit the Snell interest is, but that would also open up another spot if they signed him.
Duran could slot in for Keleic (LF), Verdugo for Hernandez (RF), which gives the two LHH outfielders around Rodriguez (RHH).
I could see something like Duran, Verdugo, Houck and one of Yorke (Wong was their 2b last year) or Bleis if they want the long term upside working for both teams. Again the Red Sox would have to (at least in my opinion) overpay in terms of value by adding a really good prospect, but I can certainly see the match for baseball reasons.
If one wants to get really crazy - say Seattle really does want to sign Snell and Snell really wants to go there...
The Sox could offer to take on Ray along with Gilbert. I know you suggested Ray a while back, and while there is very little part of me that likes the idea of paying Robbie Ray roughly $75m for 2.5 seasons (he's not expected back until June) but if the Sox are contemplating something like 1 yr and $12m or 2 yrs and $20m for Paxton, I'd RATHER double that payout for Ray AND Gilbert than simply signing Paxton and not having Gilbert.
That would bring down the value of the return going to Seattle by a large amount since Ray is seen as a negative asset (at least on BTV - and I agree with that assessment).
Bello, Gilbert, Imanaga, Crawford, 12 starts from Sale, who then goes on the IL and is replaced by Ray isn't a horrible rotation and is a heck of a lot better than we've had in half a decade.
Also makes 2025 Bello, Gilbert, Ray, Imanaga, Crawford which is pretty decent. But a lot is, of course, dependent on Ray's return from TJS.
Last edited:
It would be pretty easy for the Sox to subsidize a year of Verdugo if that ends up being a deal breaker.
Ehh, if the Sox have the best offer on the table, Seattle will take it. I don't think Verdugo, Duran and Houck is going to be the best offer on the table, though. I think the Sox would have to dangle a Mayer or Anthony as a headliner in a deal for Gilbert. Mayer, Houck, Verdugo seems like a more realistic trade package for a young frontline starter. Slight overpay according to BTV, but someone like the Dodgers could offer a BTV comparable of Emmit Sheehan, Diego Cartaya and Michael Bush. Verdugo, Duran, Houck isn't going to be enough.
Completely fair, however the difference between Verdugo and Gilbert's arbitration cost will be around 4.3 mil according to Matt Swartz. I don't know where they will find another high contact gold glove caliber right fielder at that price.
It may not entirely be a cost cutting thing. Seattle's been very outspoken about wanting to cut down heavily on strikeouts and if you view their moves through that lens they make more sense. Not giving a QO to Teoscar (31.1% K%), trading Eugenio Suarez (30.8% K%), dumping Kelenic (31.7% K%).
If it's just a matter of re-allocating payroll in-line with that philosophy, Alex Verdugo (15% K%) makes a lot of sense for them. Obviously he's not a centerpiece of a Gilbert trade but they might have interest independently or as part of a larger package.
And Rosenthal reporting that the Ms are talking to the Rays about Arozarena and Paredes. They likely will get quality for Gilbert if they deal him rather than quantity.
Thanks for ruining the idea. Hahaha.
If the Rays are willing to deal Arozarena for Gilbert there is no chance Gilbert ends up in Boston.
Arozarena is a .800 OPS guy at most, hasn't cracked that number for a couple seasons (.789 this year). Duran is two years younger and put up a higher OPS and basically equivalent OPS+, so while the Arozarena name is respected more after a couple playoff runs, whether he outhits Duran going forward is hard to predict. If the Mariners swap Gilbert for Arozarena and some throw-ins, that will not be a good trade for them. Not to say the Sox deal mentioned above is better, but the Rays would have to give up more talent I'd think. Arozarena is cheap, that's his biggest value, so if the Mariners are clearing space for Ohtani maybe it's worth it. But Gilbert is barely in his prime (26), has equivalent value at a much more important position than corner OF, and should command something more certain than Arozarena.
He has raised his barrel rate to 12.3%, his average EV to 91.7, and his hard hit rate to 48.3% over the last several years. So he hits the snot out of the ball. And is a very good base runner. (Defense is poor tho)
Last edited:
And all it took for Duran to get there was a BABIP 11 points higher than any qualified batter in baseball.
Unless you use, you know, analytics and whatnot.
Arozarena is 1.7 years older than Duran. Steamer projects Arozarena for a 123 wRC+ (128 OPS+ ZIPS), -def value for 2.9 WAR (2.8 ZIPS).
Steamer predicts a 98 wRC+ (ZIPS 98 OPS+) for Duran and negative defensive value for 1.5 WAR (ZIPS 1.5 WAR).
Duran’s .381 BABIP last year is the major red flag. Sell high.
EDIT: Statcast: Duran XWOBA last year .319. Arozarena XWOBA .351. Their Statcast pages are totally different. These 2 guys aren’t even close.
Last edited:
Can’t really sell high when every team has access to the same BABIP information and will properly discount him accordingly.
Counterpoint: Duran had one of the highest line drive rates in baseball, and hitting line drives is a skill that correlates positively with high BABIPs.
Paired with his speed (which many line-drive hitters don’t share), that’s a compelling package that could be more sustainable than, to take an extreme example, Jose Abreu’s .350 BABIP in 2022, which derived from a much lower LD% (and was therefore more “lucky,” I’d say).
In addition to what everybody else said, park adjustments are a very big deal when comparing Rays to Red Sox. I like Duran, but even Arozarena's "down year" .789 OPS in the best pitcher's park in the majors is pretty tremendous.
Yes. BTW wRC+ takes park factor into consideration (which you prob already know).
Yep that’s my observation, his hard hit numbers aren’t much different from Arozarena’s. Also it’s fine to cite 2024 projections but a trade like this is a long term one, potentially, and Duran isn’t far enough along for people to say they know what he’ll be, for better or worse. Mostly what we know is that he put up solid numbers for 360PAs and he has a very rare level of game-changing speed.
Lugo makes a ton of sense as the 2nd starter they need, think he’s a really good fit and should be better value than other starters.
I find him to be interesting. I won't say that he makes a "ton of sense" as I have questions about a 34 year old who has pretty much just become a starter this past season. Yes, I'm aware of his past history as a starter, but he's been a reliever for most of his career. I'm not saying that he can't repeat his success from last season, but I think it would be a legit concern given the Sox needs. IMO if the Sox were in the market for 3 starters he might make much more sense.
That’s fair. I am thinking of him as being versatile and someone who could help in a number of roles, depending on how the Houck, Crawford, Whitlock crew shake out. I suspect the “second starter” the Sox acquire will be someone like Lugo, Manaea, Ryu, etc- and going to have some flaws.
Yes, and that game-changing speed might always give him slightly better BABIP than the mean.
Heyman: Rangers seen as favorites for Jordan Montgomery as of now, but Red Sox are in on him. Also interested in Seth Lugo, but Braves and others are also interested.
View: https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1731882357970333945?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
View: https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1731882357970333945?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
Yea with Duran's LD% you would expect him to have a higher BABIP (~.410) not lower last year. If he regresses to his career LD% which I am not sure why but sure, you would still expect him to have around .360 BABIP.
You don't expect anyone to have a .410 BABIP, there are only 2 qualified, full season BABIPs over 400 since 2000 (Moncada 2019 at 406, Jose Hernandez 2002 at 404) and neither came anywhere close to repeating the performance. And Duran's LD% was good, but if he extended it to a full season it'd only be ~160th this century.
Meanwhile, he's never had a positive offensive month that wasn't accompanied by a BABIP north of 400. Obviously a flawed correlation, but it's not nothing either.
If he'd shown the same offensive profile three seasons ago I'd be a lot more excited, but so much of his value appears tied up in his speed and he's not a kid anymore. He's going to start slowing down in the next season or two.
Meanwhile, he's never had a positive offensive month that wasn't accompanied by a BABIP north of 400. Obviously a flawed correlation, but it's not nothing either.
If he'd shown the same offensive profile three seasons ago I'd be a lot more excited, but so much of his value appears tied up in his speed and he's not a kid anymore. He's going to start slowing down in the next season or two.
After listening to Breslow, Baily, and the new pitching director, I am becoming more confident the Red Sox will target Shota Imanga and add a top line to "topish" line pitcher via trade. (ie Gilbert).
They want stuff and to avoid a QO. I think the above is the likelier path and as I stated earlier I believe it is a better path than spending 30 AAV on a pitcher who, while very exciting, biggest asset is his ability to not give up home runs. I just have no idea if that translates.
They want stuff and to avoid a QO. I think the above is the likelier path and as I stated earlier I believe it is a better path than spending 30 AAV on a pitcher who, while very exciting, biggest asset is his ability to not give up home runs. I just have no idea if that translates.
Last edited:
I like this well enough.
I admit that I'd prefer it to be sign Montgomery, sign Imanaga (or Stroman, or Rodriguez or similar) and trade for Gilbert (or similar) but also realize that is probably way too much to accomplish in one off-season. But any acquisition of Gilbert, Cease or similar (so long as it doesn't include one of Bello or Casas out the door) along with an option that can be looked at as a solid 3 or better (Imanaga, Stroman, Rodriguez, I'd have put Gray in here, heck, I'd take Wacha here too) is - I think - realistic.
If someone really wants this to be Montgomery or Snell along with another of the #3 types and holding the prospects, I get that, but I think 2 SPs of that caliber are an absolute minimum - at any cost that is not Bello or Casas.
Had the Sox landed two of Eovaldi, Eflin, Lugo, and Wacha last offseason- the team would have been pretty good and not added significant payroll. They were in on all these guys- so it’s not a farfetched premise. I think the “ace(s) or bust” mentality is a bit off base. If they add a few of Lugo, Wacha, Manaea, Ryu crew- the team could be really good. Or not, but there comes a point where the premium for a guy like Montgomery or Stroman or whomever may not be worth it.
I would much rather than both Lugo and Imanaga than just Yamamoto. I also gear more towards acquiring as many good arms as possible than counting on one to be the guy. To much variance in outcomes
Agree that a .410 BABIP almost never happens. OTOH, I don't see that Duran was exceptionally lucky in the way that I understand it.
According to Statcast, he hit only 9 ground balls in the infield that went for base hits (or were ruled errors). That seems low for a guy with blazing speed. The hitters who got on base the most via infield grounders not converted into an out were Julio Rodriguez (36), TJ Friedl, Bogaerts, Berti (34), Jeremy Pena (33) and Nico Hoerner (32). Prorate Duran to a full season and it’s still less than half those marks.
The thing that Duran did last year that was especially effective, imo, is the Luis Arraez-style slashed line drive over the infielders' heads, often hard enough to be gap shots.
Here are the 2023 MLB leaders in % of pitches hit for line drives between 100 and 175 feet (min. 1000 pitches).
1. Duvall
2. Arraez
3. J. Pena
4. M. Rojas
5. Bichette
6. Kirilloff
7. Santana
8. J. Duran
9. Freeman
10. Vazquez
Duran is interesting to me. I was wholly out on him before this year. His leap forward in AAA in 2021 was nice but I couldn't see that kind of pull power playing in Fenway, and of course the defense was bad. This guy is different.
I like the idea of signing Lugo or Paxton for a year or two if we’re gonna trade Pivetta for something solid. Otherwise I’m less sure what the point is in adding short-term arms who’d slot in to the back half of our rotation.
I’d genuinely rather see Houck in the rotation with a good defensive shortstop behind him than have him blocked because we signed Lugo for a year.
LD% and Exit Velocity have way more to do with BABIP than speed. You are over three times more likely to get a hit on LD (~69%) than a FB (~21%) or GB (~25%). Also BABIP until last year's rule change was shifted about 10-12 points against lefties (a lefties BABIP for the same LD% was on average .012 less than a righties).
I did short hand which is .12+LD% which doesn't work as well with high end LD%. In reality with no speed adjustment you would expect Duran's BABIP to be ~.370 for last season.
You are delusional to be out on him. Simply put he is pre Arb 2-4 WAR player on a team with bigger needs. There isn't an upgrade you have on hand that isn't shooting yourself in the foot with the incredible hole in the rotation.
I was convinced last season that Houck is a terrific long reliever, not a starter, unless they pair him with a long reliever who's as good.
Did you read my post? I am making the same point about LD% and I didn’t say I was out on him. I said the opposite.
I’m with Chawson. We don’t need to add starters just to add starters. We have so many starters that we will likely have 3-4 in the bullpen. We need to add starters who are meaningfully better than the starters we already have.
I’d rather add just one starter who is clearly someone we’d want starting a WC game than just multiple 3/4 types.
Would Seth Lugo really be better than Whitlock or Pivetta in Fenway? FIP likes Lugo because he walks so few, but that HR rate scares me. If his BABIP ticks up, he’ll get crushed.
Playing around on Lugo's Savant page, it looks like he could actually unlock more upside now that he's started throwing a sweeper which was very successful in limited use, & which he throws to lefties a higher % than he does his slider. 23% of his sweepers are to lefties compared to 7% of his sliders.
His pitch mix this past year was:
4-seam fastball 31.8%
Curveball 29.4%
Sinker 20%
Slider 9.1%
Changeup 5.9%
Sweeper 3.8%
Lugo throws the changeup almost entirely to lefties, & he threw it more than he has basically since 2017 (need more pitches when starting). It wasn't that effective, but it seems like there might be a bit more that can be unlocked with it.
I think a better mix for next year would be like...
Sinker 30%
Curveball 28%
4-seam fastball 20%
Sweeper 12%
Changeup 7%
Slider 3%
Lugo was already in the 66th percentile in groundball rates, & throwing the sinker, which was a rather effective pitch last year, a bit more should be able to improve that further.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/seth-lugo-607625?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
He was about equally effective against lefties (.318 wOBA) & righties (.292 wOBA), as well as home (3.66 ERA, .298 wOBA), and away (3.50 ERA, .312 wOBA). The home/road thing is especially good considering he was playing in a hitters park & you don't want to overestimate his abilities based on that.
The trips through the order data is also mostly fine in a modern era of baseball type of way:
1st time: 2.15 ERA, .271 wOBA
2nd time: 3.21 ERA, .317 wOBA
3rd time: 6.82 ERA, .349 wOBA
Like most of our starters, he's not really a guy you want going too deep into a game. I think if he works on his pitch mix a bit & adds more variety, he'll be able to get hitters out the 3rd time through a bit more frequently, though.
So yeah, if the price is right he may be an interesting secondary option to add to the mix, which may free up a Pivetta/Houck/etc. to be moved for hitting.
His pitch mix this past year was:
4-seam fastball 31.8%
Curveball 29.4%
Sinker 20%
Slider 9.1%
Changeup 5.9%
Sweeper 3.8%
Lugo throws the changeup almost entirely to lefties, & he threw it more than he has basically since 2017 (need more pitches when starting). It wasn't that effective, but it seems like there might be a bit more that can be unlocked with it.
I think a better mix for next year would be like...
Sinker 30%
Curveball 28%
4-seam fastball 20%
Sweeper 12%
Changeup 7%
Slider 3%
Lugo was already in the 66th percentile in groundball rates, & throwing the sinker, which was a rather effective pitch last year, a bit more should be able to improve that further.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/seth-lugo-607625?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
He was about equally effective against lefties (.318 wOBA) & righties (.292 wOBA), as well as home (3.66 ERA, .298 wOBA), and away (3.50 ERA, .312 wOBA). The home/road thing is especially good considering he was playing in a hitters park & you don't want to overestimate his abilities based on that.
The trips through the order data is also mostly fine in a modern era of baseball type of way:
1st time: 2.15 ERA, .271 wOBA
2nd time: 3.21 ERA, .317 wOBA
3rd time: 6.82 ERA, .349 wOBA
Like most of our starters, he's not really a guy you want going too deep into a game. I think if he works on his pitch mix a bit & adds more variety, he'll be able to get hitters out the 3rd time through a bit more frequently, though.
So yeah, if the price is right he may be an interesting secondary option to add to the mix, which may free up a Pivetta/Houck/etc. to be moved for hitting.
Is this true? We had a bunch of starters to start last year too yet we were running bullpen games 3x a week late in the year. I don't want to add a bunch of 5th starter types for kicks, but more is better.
I may be wishcasting but between Duran, Elly de la Cruz and a few others, I am really wondering if this kind of athleticism may be the next big thing in baseball. Duran constantly turning singles into doubles was incredible. That's a lot of pressure on defenses. I really don't want him to get traded.
To be fair, the biggest reason they were running bullpen games is because a bunch of guys got hurt, not that the "bunch of starters" lacked the proper quality. Houck missed a month and a half because he got hit in the face by a line drive, not because he was a "5th starter type".
de la Cruz had an incredible first two weeks and then was awful after that, .643 OPS in his final 83 games.
He was also only 21 & still had a 1.7 fWAR season.
The new rules do reward athleticism by removing the overshift & making it easier to steal bases. But you still need to be able to hit a baseball & do smart baseball things to unlock the benefits of the athleticism. This is a pretty far afield topic for a Starting Pitching thread, though (obviously not blaming you JA, I just happen to be quoting your post).
Thank you - this is literally all the Red Sox have done since the 2019 season in terms of investing actual capital into their starting rotation, and unsurprisingly, they've been pretty darn terrible since then. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think they've made a single trade acquisition, a single high round draft pick (call it in the top 3 rounds) and obviously no FA money on long term solutions for the rotation that should be expected to be anywhere in the top half. It's all been short term, stop gap deals, reclamation projects and guys past their prime. Pivetta might have been the closest, but it's not like he was ever acquired with the supposition that he'd be a top 3 starter and while he's been pretty decent, I don't think anyone believes he is a top half of the rotation starter.
I don't want to go back and look at every FA signing, trade or draft pick they've made, but I can't think of a single instance where they've acquired someone in any capacity that was reasonably expected to be a top half of the rotation starter.
It's like they looked back at winning World Series with Pedro, Schilling and Lowe; Beckett, Schilling and Matsuzaka; Lester, Lackey, Peavy and Buchholz; Price, Sale, Eovaldi, Rodirguez and Porcello and decided "you know what, lets stop investing in what's worked. Like, at all."
Is the approach wrong, or have they just landed the wrong guys? Because if the signed Eflin and Eovaldi last year, as they evidently tried to do at least to some extent, we aren’t having this conversation. Obviously, results matter but a good staff could be constructed without signing any of the biggest names, I think.
Yes, we should move the EDLC projections elsewhere but it’s one of my favorite topics.
Sure but it’s a blip, no? Starting in 2019, they had a rotation full of guys with long term deals, so they weren't adding without subtracting, which became hard to do with Price and Sale, and then they had all this money tied up. They should have prioritized keeping Eovaldi, but that's hindsight and brushes aside his missing time again and his future being increasingly tenuous (but probably somehow awesome anyway). Only now is the overpriced dreck all gone, the CBT reset, and the market ripe enough to take part. Last year's FA class was led by Carlos Rodon.
Last edited:
I think most people agree Eovaldi is at worst a 3 right? He's not an ace, and he's not a #1, but I don't think of him like a "4th or 5th" starter either. Maybe on an elite team he ends up as the 4th or 5th starter, but I don't think anyone would argue that he's not one of the top 90 starters in baseball (ie at worst an objective 3).
So if the Red Sox had actually committed real resources to a top half of the rotation starter with more than a year of control I obviously wouldn't be saying they hadn't.
Eovaldi signed two weeks before Duvall (and a day before Kluber, but ostensibly the Kluber deal was agreed to before it was announced) but even with Kluber, they still could have signed Eovaldi when he came back to them and remained under the tax.
*For the record, I think if the goal is to win World Series Titles, as Kennedy at least says that remains the goal, then an approach of having all 3 and 4 starters is wrong. Yes.*
(It doesn't have to be signing big names. It can be trading for "big names." It can be trading for guys before they become big. It can be spending draft capital on guys to try and get not only Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz, but like Bobby Miller or Gavin Williams. They've allocated no significant resources to starting pitching in a long time. They've been terrible most of that time as well. In this circumstance, I think correlation does equal causation.)
Last edited:
Nate Eovaldi is by all accounts a high end #2 SP. He sure looked very ace-like while leading the Rangers to a WS title. Yes, he will miss time on the IL most years, but when you take into account his stuff, as well as his makeup and ability to meet the moment on the biggest stage, I think you have much more than a #3 starter. And his teammates everywhere he has been rave about him.
This was discussed a lot last offseason about Duran (adjusting his hitting style for less power and more just connecting" figuring that he'd be able to use the change in defense alignment to his advantage. I don't know how LD's and GB's and FB's all get categorized and how they get applied to BABiP, and while I do think his crazy high pct there is unsustainable, I can still imagine him having a league high along with the havoc he can create if he just gets on base.