Overpaying Jordan Montgomery when the team who he just won a ring with and has been dishing out huge contracts recently seems like a panic move.
Agreed. He’s a good pitcher but I’m simply not spending that kind of money on a non-ace 31 year-old SP.
Sorry to quote myself, but I'd go over $300 at this point and would be fine doing $315 for 11 years with an opt out after 3. As mentioned above, I'd much rather have Yamamoto and Rodriguez. Give whatever you save on Rodriguez to Yamamoto and whatever contract stipulations he wants.
Again, I think it’s going to be Imanaga and a trade. Imanaga profiles exactly with what they are looking for.
Sadly every team is offering a money hat and a great story. Seems it’s really about who is willing to take their money, not necessarily who is their first choice. Maybe that’s what you’re getting at? I’m honestly not too familiar with why Imanaga particularly might be a better fit for the Sox.
Based on what?
The new pitching team has explicitly said they prefer stuff over everything. Have plus stuff and we can figure out the kinks later.
If they can't get Yamamoto (which I haven't ruled out, but is a total crapshoot at this point) then I'd be fine with Imanaga and another SP via trade as long as we're taking about someone on the Gilbert/Burnes/Cease tier. As I've said, I think the effort to add to the quantity of arms is based on the recognition that they'll have to move some of those arms to get one of these guys in a trade.
Ah thanks, that makes a lot of sense and apologies if that was covered upthread. Now I think it probably was.
As @Dewey'sCannon just said, I’m on board with Imanaga + a Burnes/Cease/Gilbert type. I think this would be a fine solution if we miss on YY.
He did, but that’s a pretty SSS.
View: https://twitter.com/cardinalsreek/status/1712817538315251774?s=46
Good stuff, thank you. I am kind of assuming we're not winning the Yamamoto sweepstakes and would happily take the Imanaga-plus consolation prize. I think I previously said 4/60 or 5/75 "wouldn't be a disaster" for Imanaga. But with some of the numbers being thrown around for YY and others now, I think I'd be stoked with even 5/100, if that lands him.
I have been vocal in saying that, while I love Yamamoto, I am worried about the commitment to him given his greatest skill is a freakish ability to not give up home runs. I just have no idea or confidence on how that translates. Maybe it does 1:1, but I have no idea and no one else does either.
And yet Imanaga’s might have too much of the opposite going against him: the guy gives up way too many home runs. As good as he’s been in Japan, he actually gave up home runs at a higher-than-average rate in the NPB - and it isn’t a particularly power-oriented league. Yamamoto allowed just 2 home runs all season, Imanaga allowed 18.
My memory may be off but I thought it was about 20+% under on average last year...?
Apologies, I missed that you were being pitcher-specific. I was thinking of Xander, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson etc.
He's a rental so there's a limit to what it will cost, but Burnes is so good it's going to be more than most folks assume. I think he might cost as much as Soto (or more) because the Brewers don't have quite as much of an incentive to move him. I think Milwaukee could talk themselves into "blow us away right now or we'll wait until July when there are no FA options" because they still have a good chance of making the postseason in the NL Central.
If Rafaela, Houck, and Wikelman/Perales gets me 1 year of Burnes, I do that deal yesterday. I have serious doubts about Rafaela’s bat, which means he’s a 4th OF type most likely, if I’m correct. Houck is solid but replaceable. Gonzalez and Perales are lotto tickets so who knows. I feel like Milwaukee would want more than that.
Yeah you're probably right. Likely need to add Kutter to make the deal if Rafaela is the center piece.
Absolutely a fair concern and something you’d have to see as a fixable outcome. That’s kinda my point with him though is he has great stuff but a legit flaw which will bring his price down significantly. That’s what this pitching group is targeting. They are looking for guys they can add value too.
I like Montgomery but have been hoping someone else would take him off the board because I dread him with the Sox. He may be one of the pitchers who was most helped by his team's defense after the move to Texas last year, and the Sox, no matter what they do this winter, are not going to have a defense approaching Texas'.
Because I can't point to an actual reason other than wish-casting that he'd actually pick the Red Sox (and I think even the scenarios I painted to make an argument, which are the Sox history with Japanese pitchers and YY, I don't think either of these will come close to out weighing any of the below).
I think a wild card is whether a team can show a free agent that they can identify objective ways the player can improve. Imagine, for example, if a team can show a decreased spin rate for pitchers switching from the Japanese ball to the MLB ball and how an adjusted grip/arm angle/something can offset that issue. That type of preparation could potentially move the needle. Otherwise, I agree with your post.
Fair.
This post is of very high quality, and makes me sad. Thanks for laying it out like this.
I am trying not to stitch these facts together in my head "la la la I'm not listening". But yes, agreed well done.
I think you're right about 1, the Dodgers and Mets are two different versions of "most desperate," the Mets really just through their owner, or his money anyway, and the Dodgers due to their paltry return on their competitive window (so far). The Sox are both the winningest team this century and the furthest from contention at the moment, so our chances would really come down to the one you identified, having a player friend, or Boston's only real natural advantages: historical stuff and a hyper-engaged fanbase -- things a foreigner isn't likely to key on. I don't think proximity to Japan is his main concern since he's talking to both NY teams.
If it happens, we should get Bloom something nice. Bottle of wine, tickets to a game, something like that. I'm in for $20.
By no means do I think he’s ruled the East coast teams out categorically, but in his situation I’d make sure to do nothing to discourage those teams from bidding, however serious I was.
By the end of last year that would have covered it.
You really should direct this at ownership! The Sox built Bello, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, and Crawford from relative nobodies with middle-relief/swingman prospects into varyingly useful starters, most of whom have half a decade of team control. They had three open rotation spots to use toward breaking in those five guys, because Sale and Eovaldi weren't getting displaced.
While Cohen may be desperate for a title, I think you're either overstating the pressure for a team to win a title, or understating the pressure on a team - or at least certain teams - to be competitive and aggressive.
Yordanny got $35k.
The "go back in time and sign guys that are currently good" argument is useless and boring, and this also totally ignores that we did things like signing Romero way under slot so we could pony up for Roman Anthony. Would you rather have Schultz or Snelling than him?
A quick comparison to IFA hitters in the Bloom era (just the ones who made at least as much as the 2nd highest IFA pitcher during that time)...
Our expenditures on pitching under Bloom were very small. We did have as much success as anyone acquiring hitters during the Bloom era, though. So it's an open question whether that was a bad thing. It definitely exacerbated the cost controlled pitching gap, though.
