What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
So far it is beginning to look like the Sox get the leftovers after the teams that are actually trying to win, and not mouthing the words "we are trying to win", take the pick of the litter. I hope I am wrong but from what I read Sox are out on Ohtani, will be outbid for the Japanese pitcher. maybe we get one of Snell, Montgomery or Strohman, Cease. It won't be enough to get the team out of last place. Sox need two stud starters and a potent bat to compete. I hope I am wrong but I am getting a nervous feeling.
Not sure what makes you think this. I really didn't think that Ohtani made sense for the Sox. While he likely would be a ton of fun, there's plenty of issues with his future value, especially if he can't really ever pitch again. He's just not a fit. I think the Sox are 100% targeting Yamamoto and I don't see any indications that they're out on him. The other pitchers that are "off the board" also I don't see as realistic targets. If the Sox lose out on the Yamamoto sweepstakes due to some laughable offer and the Mets, Yankees, whoever win him with a $25M per 8 year offer then, yeah, Sox are just looking like the Bloom years again and I'll be pretty disappointed. If they lose out because the winning team offers 10-12 years and $500M then I'm not faulting them.
Leftovers? What pitchers have been signed that fit the Sox needs for 2 top tier pitchers other than possibly Nola who actually seems like he wanted to stay where he was?
To be fair, I'd argue that Gray fits the bill; at least as a "top half of the rotation" starter since I try not to get too bogged down into 1,2,3 and the like.
There are plenty of reasons why I personally wasn't interested in him for the Red Sox (most notably that you can bank on him missing about 2 months per year and the last thing I want the Sox doing is depending on yet another pitcher over 30 that consistently misses time and then being "surprised" when that pitcher misses time - been there and done that for the past 4 years) but I think in fairness he's a top half of the rotation starter. At least based on those that we know are available this off-season.
Nola was the guy I wanted more than any other this off-season, but as you implied, it basically all seemed like a play to get Philly to offer the most they would possibly offer and then take whatever that was.
Though I agree with the tenor of the point, that it's too early to be truly concerned when factoring in the players off the board; just trying to be objective about Gray's value.
I suspect after Gray's failure time in NYC, he was very likely staying away from the media grind locations. St.Louis always seems to pick up the types that want the bigger brand name teams but shy away from NYC, LA, Cubs, Sox and maybe Philly and Houston now?
Oh, I agree totally. Like I said, I had really zero interest in the pitcher on the Red Sox (and he seemed like he always wanted StL as well).
Just more trying to be fair about where he probably fits into the hierarchy of SPs this offseason, and for a team that needs two top half of the rotation starters, he's a top half of the rotation starter. So if someone, for instance, really wanted a rotation of Nola, Bello, Gray, Crawford and Pivetta/Houck/12 starts from Sale, I could see why they'd be worried at this point.
Just more trying to be fair about where he probably fits into the hierarchy of SPs this offseason, and for a team that needs two top half of the rotation starters, he's a top half of the rotation starter. So if someone, for instance, really wanted a rotation of Nola, Bello, Gray, Crawford and Pivetta/Houck/12 starts from Sale, I could see why they'd be worried at this point.
<checks calendar>
Yup, only December 1. Why is it that every off-season, there are folks that seem to forget that it's four months long? Take a breath and relax a bit. It's too early to be nervous and too early to say that the Sox are going to be stuck with leftovers.
As others have said, the only pitcher that fits the bill of a "stud starter" that is off the board is Nola, and it seems like he was never going to be an option anyway. Ohtani was a long shot at best and doesn't really fill a pressing need for the Sox right now anyway. Sure he's a great hitter, but they aren't really hurting for LHH pop. They could use some more RHH pop though, and options for that are certainly still out there.
If the Red Sox still haven't acquired anyone of note a month from now, then it's time to get nervous.
I love this part of the offseason where about 3 players have signed deals and the Red Sox have already failed in the minds of some fans.
They've missed out on exactly 1 mid rotation starter in Sonny Gray, a guy who by all accounts wanted to go to St. Louis. If that's true, the Sox never had a shot at him outside of doing something stupid.
Ohtani does nothing for the rotation next year. Would I love to have him on the Sox? Absolutely. But he's not a perfect fit for how the roster is currently constructed. The Sox may get outbid on Yamamoto, but they're certainly going to be in the discussion for his services. They aren't out on him yet. If not, the Sox could wind up with two of Snell, Montgomery, Stroman or Cease. Or they look elsewhere and get a guy like Logan Gilbert, Corbin Burnes, or Shane Bieber. The offseason just got started.
Point taken, but I didn't consider Gray a fit at this juncture with the Sox reported top two targets on the board. And I certainly wouldn't refer to Yamamoto and Montgomery as Sonny Gray's leftovers.
Yeah, agree.
I also really don't believe in the "Yamamoto or bust" narrative. Sure, I want the pitcher, but Steve Coehn is Steve Cohen and if the Mets offer him 10/$400m and Breslow decides instead that there are too many holes elsewhere so instead takes $175m for Jordan Montgomery, $75m for Imanaga and $75m for Hernandez I'm not going to call the offseason a bust.
Now if we look at another offseason where the Red Sox do zilch to address their long term pitching deficit as has been the case the past 4 off-seasons, I'll call it a bust (again), but I don't think that's likely. And I certainly don't think missing out on Sonny Gray implies that.
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ERod won't get $150m either (projections are 4 for $80m+). I assume he meant $50m for Teoscar (projections have him getting around 3/$60m). Although who knows? Now we're at $300m instead of $400m.
Haha. Whoops, copying and pasting got the better of me there.
I meant $175m on Montgomery, and $150m split between someone like Imanaga and Hernandez (or $75m each and I edited the post to reflect that), and thus spreading $325m to fill three holes as opposed to $400m on one and having two more massive holes to fill.
For what it's worth, I did go considerably higher than projections because I think enough damage has been done to the Sox brand recently that they're going to have to substantially beat a contender's offer in order to get guys to come to Boston right now, but more in the line of roughly 50% on top tier pitching and 25% on top tier bats more than they're being offered by LAD or Texas or whomever. Not offering someone like Teoscar almost $100m more.
So if Texas offers Montgomery 5 and $130 (for example) I think the Sox would have to offer something like 6 and $175m.
When you say "beginning to look like" are you basing that on internet chatter? I haven't seen a singe thing that suggests the Sox will be outbid on Yamamoto, and at this point wouldn't believe it anyway -- it's a thing that will happen in the future and nobody will know until it happens. Don't get sucked into chatter until something actually happens. It's like presidential polling a year out, it's at least 90% people trying to get attention and maybe (or maybe not) a few crumbs of substance. We have a new regime superimposed on top of an old regime that was pretty good at locking down all leaks. I know it's not fun to say that we need to just wait, but if you want to talk about what is really happening, we have to wait.
ummmmm.... No. That's not how any of this works. Players aren't taking a 50% discount due to the brand perceptions of message board posters.
Maybe the Sox wouldn't have to blow Texas (or anyone) out of the water, maybe it's just $1m more per year and not $4m.
I suppose I tend to think guys are generally more motivated by winning than they necessarily are.
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I mean, yes, players tend to go to the highest bidder unless they have an attachment to a certain team. Like Snell seems to have for Seattle. But no matter how much people here dump on Yoshi, his comments about playing in Fenway are about how much he loves the atmosphere here. I suspect that pretty much all MLB players know how much fun it is to play in Fenway when the Sox are good, and if the owners are opening the purse strings, then the Sox are going to be good.
I guess the biggest thing is we're (possibly) disagreeing on Montgomery's attachment to Texas having just won a WS there (followed loosely by the Texas state income tax rate being 0% and Mass being 5%) and the way the two teams are positioned for success over the next several years with Texas having a ton of MLB talent locked in and the Red Sox having not nearly as much. Also, not for nothing, but FanGrahps has Texas as the #5 system in the game (Sox at 2) and MLB has Texas at #10 with Boston at #16.
Though maybe Montgomery can't wait to get out of Texas, I have literally no idea.
Looks like the Red Sox have less of an inside track on Montgomery than I was led to believe:
According to this map, the Braves are the closest MLB team to Nashville, just ahead of the Cards & the Reds.
View: https://imgur.com/whdlraP
So Montgomery would have to fall in love with Boston quick. It looks like it's raining on Sunday & by Tuesday y'all will be lucky to see 40 degrees...
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/6f03ddf87585ae5600e3dee28e519d788ddeb749efefa3f236796ef7167fc411
It seems that this internship actually started back in June & will only last a year, & she already has her next destination set, Nashville, TN, probably in June '24:
https://web.musc.edu/about/news-center/2023/05/16/home-run-dermatologist
According to this map, the Braves are the closest MLB team to Nashville, just ahead of the Cards & the Reds.
View: https://imgur.com/whdlraP
So Montgomery would have to fall in love with Boston quick. It looks like it's raining on Sunday & by Tuesday y'all will be lucky to see 40 degrees...
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/6f03ddf87585ae5600e3dee28e519d788ddeb749efefa3f236796ef7167fc411
What's Montgomery likely to get? He's already 30 years old, which is fine and he will probably still be fine for several more years, but if he's looking for an 8-year deal or something, that would be very very tough to swallow. He's a good pitcher. Not a great one. A good one. And the Sox definitely need more good pitchers, so I'm not at all opposed to them trying to get him. But at what cost?
Spotrac: 6/$110m
BR: 5/$110m
MLBTR: 6/$150m
Athletic: 5/$127m
CBS: 5/$110m
JB: 6/$144m
Yahoo: 5/$110m
My personal guess is that the general idea is in-line (ish) with the stuff the Athletic / McDaniel have posted. They're in at roughly 5/$110m (ish). My take is Texas would probably go up to around 5/$125m since they apparently have no budget now either (Seager) and have just tasted a title. Figuring in the state income tax issues, say (to make the numbers easy) the Sox would have to go 5/$135m just to break even with said offer. Maybe it's more like @nighthob thinks and 5/$140m gets it done.
But personally with how putrid the Sox look right now and Texas having just won a title, I think they'd need to offer more to get him to leave Texas - but again, I'm assuming someone has an affinity for a place they've just won a title, I could be wrong.
So I think the Sox are looking at having to go to 5/$150m or 6/$160m. But again, that is one person's opinion.
Ugh. Well I wouldn't want him for that cost. Though...man...the Sox *REALLY* need starting pitching. This is why a guy like Bello is so critical to their future. A homegrown, cost-controlled, high level starting pitcher is worth its weight in gold.
According to Fangraphs, Montgomery's career to date has been worth 7/$113m.
Now that I know how wife isn't actually here for the next 3 years, I'm back to thinking he's going to get overpaid for 31 post season innings during which he ran about a run & a half over expectations (2.90 ERA, xFIP over 4.50) & struck out less than 6 per 9 innings.
Unless we sign him. In which case I'll just assume he's solved baseball.
Now that I know how wife isn't actually here for the next 3 years, I'm back to thinking he's going to get overpaid for 31 post season innings during which he ran about a run & a half over expectations (2.90 ERA, xFIP over 4.50) & struck out less than 6 per 9 innings.
Unless we sign him. In which case I'll just assume he's solved baseball.
The past 3 seasons, Montgomery has pitched 524.1 innings (16th in baseball) over 94 starts (t-6th) and been worth 10.2 fWAR (16th). That reads more great than good to me.
I think that is the problem No one wants to pay the price for pitching. We all want premium starters but don’t want to pay market value for the free agents or surrender any prospects for a legit ace/2.
and when the Sox end up dumpster diving again the whole forum is going to have a coronary.
I don’t really enjoy overspending on the market for pitching but the rotation is so abysmal and help is at least 2 years away. I’d go to 5-140 for Montgomery and I’d trade any prospect we have for a legit frontline pitcher. Heck you have an ace available with at least 3 years control and I’d move both Mayer and Teel.
I think you are significantly devaluing Bello in today's market. According to Baseball Reference, his listed weight is 195 pounds. 195 troy pounds of gold (troy pounds are apparently slightly different than regular pounds, because why not have multiple different units of measurement with the same name) is worth just under 5 million USD.
It is a feeling and, frankly a fear (yes, I need alife as I fret over the Sox at an irrational level) not a fact just that I don't feel we are willing to get what we need to be competitive. The last place finishes we have been suffering through these last few years eat at me as if I should be able to will the team to competitiveness but can not. It makes me sick but I can not break away.
I don't think any damage has been done to the Sox brand, exactly. But the city is a hell of a lot drearier than most MLB teams' and there's gotta be a tax for that, and we should also make it crystal clear to free agents ASAP that we're going to compete again. The Isaiah Campbell trade didn't exactly trumpet that from the rooftops.
And that's missing the bulk of three seasons.
We did the same "great not good" rationale for E-Rod (I did too). Would anyone be upset right now if it were us that had him under contract for 3/$50M guaranteed over '24-26?
I was mostly aboard with the Bloom slow-boil strategy but after all this, the Sox had better offer someone a lot of money. Otherwise none of it makes sense.
Is that on the pro side or the con side?
No one has that. It's why opt outs are problematic for teams. You only pay the other portion if you're getting a bad deal.
I ran across this today which I agree with (I also didn't realize the 2nd year on Nick Martinez's deal was a player option).
View: https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1730149906755559456
The pro!
No, I know no one has it. Still think that something like that would have worked great even if it looked like an overpay at the time. MLBTR had his contract estimated at 5/$70. Fangraphs pegged him for between 4/$70 and 4/$80.
It's always possible he wanted out but if we had given him $80 at the time, it would have looked like a great move right now.
He got 5/$77m with that opt out. An opt out after 2 years with another $49m behind is a pretty legit negotiating point that's worth a lot more than $3m. ERod also got a no trade clause. & there was another $3m of IP incentives which he didn't meet.
Which meant the Tigers ended up paying him 2/$28m & lost a draft pick (I believe their 3rd rounder).
Meanwhile, the Red Sox drafted Roman Anthony with their comp pick for losing him. So I think it all worked out OK.
This is funny because they got E-Rod initially in 2014 from the Orioles for two months of Andrew Miller, so two months of Miller* in 2014 for full control of Roman Anthony in 2023 is a quite impressive two move sequence.
*Admittedly he was an untouchable walking cheat code at the time, the Randy Johnson of relief, and he helped BAL to the ALCS that year with an incredible postseason combined line of 7.1 1 0 0 1 8 in 5 games, an almost impossible .171 OPS allowed, so both sides did well.
Sure, though the Sox got Roman Anthony with a draft bonus so far overslot at #79 (they paid him more than Mikey Romero at #24) that they probably would have grabbed him sooner if they didn’t have an comp E-Rod comp pick. Probably at #41 (the Fabian compensation) where they ended up taking Coffey, who doesn’t look like much.
Loomer has a video in the winter meetings thread where he says the Sox aren't getting two of the top SPs on the market and should try for one and bring back Paxton. IMO that's a great idea if the one is Yamamoto. You'd have to think that getting Yamamoto is more of a long-term play than a strict win-now, right? The real value you are acquiring there is his longer window, which is for sure now once he gets adjusted, but also extends out to 2030ish. Yamamoto fits with the three top prospects, Devers, Casas, and whoever else pops. That's a hugely talented core which will arrive sometime in the next couple years. Paxton is a high-end filler, time-wise, and if things come together right away, he's good there too, but he won't inhibit your plans after 2026, nor will he block you from adding another major SP in next year's market.
If they get Snell and/or Montgomery, then you are probably trying to accelerate the "rebuild" so that you peak as soon as now but for sure in the next couple years. It doesn't dramatically change the organizational plan, but does suggest that you should think a little harder about dealing one of the top three kids.
If they get Snell and/or Montgomery, then you are probably trying to accelerate the "rebuild" so that you peak as soon as now but for sure in the next couple years. It doesn't dramatically change the organizational plan, but does suggest that you should think a little harder about dealing one of the top three kids.
Paxton put up 1.1 BWAR, less than 100 innings at a 101 ERA+, and he’s 35. He’s like an older, less effective, less reliable version of Sale. Not sure I like him better than any of the Crawford / Houck / Whitlock / Paxton crew and it would be a weird move for Bloom’s replacement to make…but if the price is right, I guess. But won’t he likely get at least $10-$12M? Not sure I see the upside.
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There was talk a few weeks back that the Rays might have to trade Glasnow because they now have to pay him a market rate salary. What about acquiring his remaining 1/$25m? I don't that he's a tremendous candidate for a market-rate extension — but Sale will be off the books after 2024, so... — but I also don't think the trade value for him at 1/$25m will be through the roof (even though I think BTV has it considerably too low).
I think the offseason I would advocate for if I were advising Breslow would be as follows:
Rotation: Yamamoto, Glasnow, Bello, Sale, Paxton.
Bullpen: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Winckowski, Bernardino, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford.
Catchers: Wong, McGuire.
Infield: Devers, Story, Casas, Valdez
Outfield: Yoshida, Duran, Abreu, Refsnyder
IF/OF: Dubón, Rafaela
DH/IF/OF: Hoskins
The payroll shakes out to something like $260m, once 40-man costs are considered. But it could potentially dip back down pretty sharply the following season as Sale, Paxton, Hoskins, and Glasnow reach FA.
I’m assuming that Yoshida plays a fair amount of LF in Fenway, but also gets considerable time at DH, especially on the road. We also aim to give him weekly days where he starts on the bench for freshness. Hoskins plays a lot of DH, gets maybe 20 starts at 1B, and is a bench option as a PH/OF for Abreu and Duran. Call it 120 games, 100 starts, 450 PA. Rafaela is mostly the CF, but also sees time at SS, 2B and in RF. Dubón helps out all over the infield and outfield, especially facilitating patching up the defense after PH. Manu Valdez and Rob Refsnyder are impact LHH and RHH off the bench, and Refsnyder especially starts somewhere in the OF against LHSP. Pinch-hitting becomes a huge part of this team. We will generally have an insanely good-hitting bench, with players like Yoshida, Hoskins, Duran, Casas, Refsnyder, Abreu, Dubón, and Valdez seeing regular time there. Lineups would vary, but look sort of like this:
Home vs. LHP: SS Story RH, 3B Devers LH, DH Hoskins RH, LF Yoshida LH, RF Refsnyder RH, 1B Casas LH, C Wong RH, 2B Dubón RH, CF Rafaela RH. Bench: Valdez L, McGuire L, Duran L, Abreu L.
Home vs. RHP: CF Duran LH, 3B Devers LH, DH Hoskins RH, LF Yoshida LH, 1B Casas LH, SS Story RH, RF Abreu LH, 2B Rafaela RH, C McGuire LH. Bench: Dubon R, Wong R, Valdez L, Refsnyder R.
Away vs. LHP: SS Story RH, 3B Devers LH, 1B Hoskins RH, DH Yoshida LH, LF Refsnyder RH, RF Abreu LH, CF Rafaela RH, C Wong RH, 2B Dubón RH. Bench: Duran L, Valdez L, McGuire L, Casas L.
Away vs. RHP: LF Duran LH, 3B Devers LH, DH Yoshida LH, 1B Casas LH, SS Story RH, 2B Valdez LH, C Wong RH, RF Abreu RH, CF Rafaela RH. Bench: Dubon R, McGuire L, Hoskins R, Refsnyder R.
I think the offseason I would advocate for if I were advising Breslow would be as follows:
- Sign Yamamoto almost for whatever it takes. Call it 10/$300m.
- Trade Verdugo for a return that is mostly prospects, e.g.: Trade OF Alex Verdugo and IF David Hamilton to the Astros for UT Mauricio Dubón, OF prospect Kenedy Corona, and SP prospect Michael Knorr.
- Flip the Houston prospects Corona and Knorr along with Nick Yorke and a somewhat-subsidized Nick Pivetta, to Tampa Bay for Tyler Glasnow.
- Sign Rhys Hoskins for 1/$16m or so (MLBTR's estimate) to fill a RH DH/1B/LF role and add some middle-of-the-order pop from the right hand side.
- Sign James Paxton for 1/$8m.
- Offer extensions to Bello and Casas.
Rotation: Yamamoto, Glasnow, Bello, Sale, Paxton.
Bullpen: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Winckowski, Bernardino, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford.
Catchers: Wong, McGuire.
Infield: Devers, Story, Casas, Valdez
Outfield: Yoshida, Duran, Abreu, Refsnyder
IF/OF: Dubón, Rafaela
DH/IF/OF: Hoskins
The payroll shakes out to something like $260m, once 40-man costs are considered. But it could potentially dip back down pretty sharply the following season as Sale, Paxton, Hoskins, and Glasnow reach FA.
I’m assuming that Yoshida plays a fair amount of LF in Fenway, but also gets considerable time at DH, especially on the road. We also aim to give him weekly days where he starts on the bench for freshness. Hoskins plays a lot of DH, gets maybe 20 starts at 1B, and is a bench option as a PH/OF for Abreu and Duran. Call it 120 games, 100 starts, 450 PA. Rafaela is mostly the CF, but also sees time at SS, 2B and in RF. Dubón helps out all over the infield and outfield, especially facilitating patching up the defense after PH. Manu Valdez and Rob Refsnyder are impact LHH and RHH off the bench, and Refsnyder especially starts somewhere in the OF against LHSP. Pinch-hitting becomes a huge part of this team. We will generally have an insanely good-hitting bench, with players like Yoshida, Hoskins, Duran, Casas, Refsnyder, Abreu, Dubón, and Valdez seeing regular time there. Lineups would vary, but look sort of like this:
Home vs. LHP: SS Story RH, 3B Devers LH, DH Hoskins RH, LF Yoshida LH, RF Refsnyder RH, 1B Casas LH, C Wong RH, 2B Dubón RH, CF Rafaela RH. Bench: Valdez L, McGuire L, Duran L, Abreu L.
Home vs. RHP: CF Duran LH, 3B Devers LH, DH Hoskins RH, LF Yoshida LH, 1B Casas LH, SS Story RH, RF Abreu LH, 2B Rafaela RH, C McGuire LH. Bench: Dubon R, Wong R, Valdez L, Refsnyder R.
Away vs. LHP: SS Story RH, 3B Devers LH, 1B Hoskins RH, DH Yoshida LH, LF Refsnyder RH, RF Abreu LH, CF Rafaela RH, C Wong RH, 2B Dubón RH. Bench: Duran L, Valdez L, McGuire L, Casas L.
Away vs. RHP: LF Duran LH, 3B Devers LH, DH Yoshida LH, 1B Casas LH, SS Story RH, 2B Valdez LH, C Wong RH, RF Abreu RH, CF Rafaela RH. Bench: Dubon R, McGuire L, Hoskins R, Refsnyder R.
I think the argument is that he wore down because these were his innings the last 3 years:
'20: 20.1
'21: 1.1
'22: 0
So despite a bit of early rust, Paxton put up the following #s through July 8th:
10 starts
56 innings
17 ER
41 hits
14 walks
64 strikeouts
5.6 IP, 2.73 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.3 bb/9, 10.3 k/9
But after that...
9 starts
40 innings
31 ER
52 hits
19 walks
37 strikeouts
4.4 IP, 6.98 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 4.3 bb/9, 8.3 k/9
So if you think the real Paxton is that beginning bit, & he'll be able to carry that deeper into the season when he hasn't just had 3 years off, & the price is low enough, that could be a pretty good value, as 1st 10 starts Paxton was definitely a top 3 starter.
I definitely wouldn't be comfortable with this as a primary acquisition, but we could probably do worse on a secondary one. Not that exciting & hope to do better, though.
We all know he pitched better than his final line indicates, though. If it’s a matter of rebuilding stamina after TJS, a lat tear, and several years away from the game — which it really seems to be — the final line leaves out a lot of context. Paxton was terrific for three months.
From May 12 to August 10, he put up a 1.6 fWAR and 3.58 xFIP. That’s a strong #2. Those numbers are nearly identical to Montgomery and Stroman over the same stretch. He’s 35.
I think the Sox need to acquire a star. Soto, Yamamoto, Ohtani, Tatis, and arguably Burnes all fit the bill. I’d like to see us also pay for Woodruff’s recovery, grab Flaherty, and dangle Pivetta in this pitching-starved market. I’d be happy to bring Paxton back too. He’s not going to get more than 2 years, which lines up well with us resetting the tax.
Ha - it isn’t, no. Bit of a puff piece from Laurila there. I also think Paxton is pretty well liked in the game (plus Fangraphs is composed of a lot of old Mariners fans), which maybe helps an interview like that get published as a standalone piece.
I’m aboard with a lot of this! Hard time seeing them trade Glasnow in division though.
Should Hoskins in LF be a concern? This coming season will mark 6 years since he last played the position. Granted he was the primary starter there playing 135 games in left with 133 of those games being starts, but I can't help but question why he's not played even an inning there since 2018.
I think the Mariners' recent moves could be setting up a very good match for the Sox to make a deal for one of their starters.
They just traded Kelenic/Suarez and will let Teoscar walk because they want to be more contact focused on their offense. It also doesn't sound like they have a lot of willingness to spend a significant amount in FA. I think the writing on the wall is for Breslow to build a package of MLB players that will help keep the Mariners competing in the AL, while getting a cost controlled starter for the next few years.
A trade such as Logan Gilbert for Verdugo, Houck and Duran would be very interesting. I know that MLB Trade Values is a bit flawed but that deal is 65.9 to 60.9 respectively and the Mariners get a lot of control in Duran and Houck with a very good RF they can either trade at the deadline or maybe QO for a pick at the end of the season. I'm reluctant to part with Duran in a deal like this because of his possible ceiling and amount of control, but he's already 27 and I am sure I wouldn't like the name they'd have to include in such a deal if they don't have Duran in it.
Trading for Gilbert and signing say Montgomery would mark this as a successful offseason in regards to starting pitching in my eyes.
They just traded Kelenic/Suarez and will let Teoscar walk because they want to be more contact focused on their offense. It also doesn't sound like they have a lot of willingness to spend a significant amount in FA. I think the writing on the wall is for Breslow to build a package of MLB players that will help keep the Mariners competing in the AL, while getting a cost controlled starter for the next few years.
A trade such as Logan Gilbert for Verdugo, Houck and Duran would be very interesting. I know that MLB Trade Values is a bit flawed but that deal is 65.9 to 60.9 respectively and the Mariners get a lot of control in Duran and Houck with a very good RF they can either trade at the deadline or maybe QO for a pick at the end of the season. I'm reluctant to part with Duran in a deal like this because of his possible ceiling and amount of control, but he's already 27 and I am sure I wouldn't like the name they'd have to include in such a deal if they don't have Duran in it.
Trading for Gilbert and signing say Montgomery would mark this as a successful offseason in regards to starting pitching in my eyes.
I think this is especially true with the Kelenic move, agree.
Duran obviously wouldn't be asked to play CF for them, but he could cover LF where his arm plays a little bit better and that is a huge park in a division filled with huge parks. To your point, I think that Seattle would (and should) be asking for more than Houck, Duran and Verdugo, but I can see the Sox having the prospects to make up the ground.
While lacking the surefire "ace", a rotation that goes something like Montgomery, Bello, Gilbert, Imanaga and Crawford (with the 12 to 15 starts from Sale) is very solid, under control for a long time, and features a lot of guys that throw strikes.
Duran obviously wouldn't be asked to play CF for them, but he could cover LF where his arm plays a little bit better and that is a huge park in a division filled with huge parks. To your point, I think that Seattle would (and should) be asking for more than Houck, Duran and Verdugo, but I can see the Sox having the prospects to make up the ground.
While lacking the surefire "ace", a rotation that goes something like Montgomery, Bello, Gilbert, Imanaga and Crawford (with the 12 to 15 starts from Sale) is very solid, under control for a long time, and features a lot of guys that throw strikes.
I'd be happy with something like that, but isn't Seattle one of our direct competitors these days? They've been right there in the WC hunt the last few years, and while we always wanna play for the division, the AL East is such a dogfight that the Wild Card berth is significant. Seems like it could be a deterrent for major deals.
I have a hard time seeing Seattle taking on Verdugo’s salary given that their other moves have been designed to cut costs. To dump Kelenic to save $12.M on Gonzales and then give up Gilbert to take on Verdugo doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.