sean1562 said:
I think that the problem is is that everyone wants the players on the Nats, but the Nats don't really have any holes that another team can help them fill.
Trading for Starting Pitching
- Thread starter ivanvamp
- Start date
I think that the problem is is that everyone wants the players on the Nats, but the Nats don't really have any holes that another team can help them fill.
Fip is useless in the NL West because it doesn't normalize HR rates. Xfip is a much better indicator, which uses league average HR/FB.Rudy Pemberton said:
The recovery rate from TJ surgery is so high it doesn't matter. I take 4 years of Matt Harvey over 6 of Mookie without any hesitation. It's not particularly close for me.MakMan44 said:
Flipping thing around, if the Red Sox made that offer there is no way the Mets aren't asking for more. Theoretical value and projections are all well and good, but in the real world there is no effing way Mookie Betts is worth Matt Harvey+.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
Recovery of the ability to pitch successfully in the major leagues, or recovery of previous level of dominance? In this case the difference matters. If post-TJ Harvey = pre-TJ Harvey, I make that deal in a heartbeat, just like you. But we don't know that.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
i agree. some people here are going a little crazy with the mookie betts projections. xander bogaerts was the second coming last offseason and someone said that they wouldnt trade betts for mike trout in one of the other threads. we cant even play betts at his actual position, we are assuming he is gong to be good in the OF. Matt Harvey is a potential Cy Young candidate. Betts could hit around .780 next year and play shitty defense in RF. Or he could slump and hit .720.
Wasn't my point. He's still not going to be "Matt Harvey, super ace" for most of this season so you're getting closer to 3 seasons, though that's just my opinion and it's not written in stone. Also, having TJS increases the likelihood of having it again and you never know when that's going to strike. These seem like silly reasons, but if you're projecting a 4 WAR season for Mookie at 22 I'm finding any reason I can to keep him.Snodgrass'Muff said:
EDIT: I'm not arguing you're wrong. I'm just saying, in Ben's shoes, I don't make the trade. Totally willing to concede that's stupid, but it's where I'm at.
I had not gotten a chance to look, was just making a general comment. I would love Tyson ross for Cespedes, to be clear.MakMan44 said:
Right. I was just clarifying in case it looked like I was low on him.Wingack said:
Anyway, I'm surprised at his steamer predictions. Bump in era of a half point after two straight years in the high 2's/low 3'a with xfips that match.
MakMan44 said:
Yeah I agree. As I was reading that I was thinking, this sounds good for the Sox. But I can't think of a reason why Washington would consider anything close to that.
If I'm offered Harvey for Betts I'm on the phone with my team travel agent to arrainge a flight for Harvey to get his physical in order
Iwakuma and (to a lesser extent) Porcello make a lot of sense in a trade.
Ross makes sense too, and there's smoke there, but Steamer has him projected for a regression and the move from an extreme NL pitchers park to Fenway is something to be concerned about.
Outside the box, I wonder if the Sox could get in touch with the Indians on Salazar or (maybe) Carrasco. That's a team with a David Murphy-sized hole in right and contended for the playoffs last year. If they want to contend again, they'll need to patch some gaps because that division is going to be brutal again this year.
Ross makes sense too, and there's smoke there, but Steamer has him projected for a regression and the move from an extreme NL pitchers park to Fenway is something to be concerned about.
Outside the box, I wonder if the Sox could get in touch with the Indians on Salazar or (maybe) Carrasco. That's a team with a David Murphy-sized hole in right and contended for the playoffs last year. If they want to contend again, they'll need to patch some gaps because that division is going to be brutal again this year.
The elbow injury is the only reason their value is even remotely close at this point and I would be happy to bet on him returning to his dominant form.MakMan44 said:
Per Cot's, a contract round-up of some of the SP names potentially on the market. For the arb players, the 2014 salary is listed in parentheses
The following are pre-Arb, and have 4 years of Arb starting in 2016:
Jose Fernandez (635k) [You can dream...]
The following are entering their Arb3 year, and have one more year of Arb in 2016:
Andrew Cashner ($2.4M), Tyson Ross ($1.98M)
The following are entering their Arb4 year, and will be free agents starting in 2016:
Ian Kennedy ($6.1M), Doug Fister ($7.2M), Mike Leake ($5.925M), Mat Latos ($7.25M), Jeff Samardzija ($5.345M), Rick Porcello ($8.5M)
The following are under contract in 2015 and will be free agents starting in 2016:
Hisashi Iwakuma ($7M in 2015), Johnny Cueto ($10Min 2015), Jordan Zimmerman ($16.5M in 2015), Bartolo Colon ($11M in 2015)
The following are under long-term contracts
Cole Hamels: $22.5M in 2015,$22.5M in 2016,$22.5M in 2017,$22.5M in 2018, $20M option in 2019 which presumably must be picked up.
Jon Niese: $7M in 2015, $9M in 2016, $10M in 2017 (500k buyout), $11M in 2018 (500k buyout)
Anibal Sanchez: $16.8M in 2015, $16.8M in 2016, $16.8M in 2017, $16M in 2018 ($5M buyout)
Edit: Corrections and additions welcome.
The following are pre-Arb, and have 4 years of Arb starting in 2016:
Jose Fernandez (635k) [You can dream...]
The following are entering their Arb3 year, and have one more year of Arb in 2016:
Andrew Cashner ($2.4M), Tyson Ross ($1.98M)
The following are entering their Arb4 year, and will be free agents starting in 2016:
Ian Kennedy ($6.1M), Doug Fister ($7.2M), Mike Leake ($5.925M), Mat Latos ($7.25M), Jeff Samardzija ($5.345M), Rick Porcello ($8.5M)
The following are under contract in 2015 and will be free agents starting in 2016:
Hisashi Iwakuma ($7M in 2015), Johnny Cueto ($10Min 2015), Jordan Zimmerman ($16.5M in 2015), Bartolo Colon ($11M in 2015)
The following are under long-term contracts
Cole Hamels: $22.5M in 2015,$22.5M in 2016,$22.5M in 2017,$22.5M in 2018, $20M option in 2019 which presumably must be picked up.
Jon Niese: $7M in 2015, $9M in 2016, $10M in 2017 (500k buyout), $11M in 2018 (500k buyout)
Anibal Sanchez: $16.8M in 2015, $16.8M in 2016, $16.8M in 2017, $16M in 2018 ($5M buyout)
Edit: Corrections and additions welcome.
I'll playsoxhop411 said:
Bogaerts for DeGroom or Harvey, Hanley plays short until Marrero is ready, Cespedes stays in LF until that time. If Marrero isn't ready before year end, they move Hanley to 1B and Marrero takes over at short in 2016, when the outfield is likely to be Betts, Bradley and Castillo, or Brentz, Castillo and Betts.
More logical for both teams would be something like Marrero for Niese.
Mets horizon is long enough that they can afford to wait a year for Marrero to arrive, and another year for him to become reasonably comfortable at the MLB level. By 2017, they'll still have control over Wheeler/Harvey/DeGrom and ready to go to war.
Sox could nicely slot Niese into a very affordable #3 slot for now, freeing up enough money to sign one ace (e.g. Lester) and trade from a #2 (ideally Samardzija or Cueto, but alternatively Sanchez, Ross, Iwakuma, Zimmerman, Latos...).
Edit: As MakMan cites above, there's nothing aside from Harvey or DeGrom in Metsville that remotely motivates me to give up on Xander. Not even Wheeler.
Mets horizon is long enough that they can afford to wait a year for Marrero to arrive, and another year for him to become reasonably comfortable at the MLB level. By 2017, they'll still have control over Wheeler/Harvey/DeGrom and ready to go to war.
Sox could nicely slot Niese into a very affordable #3 slot for now, freeing up enough money to sign one ace (e.g. Lester) and trade from a #2 (ideally Samardzija or Cueto, but alternatively Sanchez, Ross, Iwakuma, Zimmerman, Latos...).
Edit: As MakMan cites above, there's nothing aside from Harvey or DeGrom in Metsville that remotely motivates me to give up on Xander. Not even Wheeler.
I love the Cameron trade. And I'd take Zimmerman over any other pitcher available this offseason, including Lester or Cueto.
Trading the cost-controlled future all-star Bogaerts for anything less than the moon and the stars is fools gold.
You wouldPrometheusWakefield said:
The thing about Cameron trade is that I think it's predicated on Miller replacing Desmond. I didn't read the actual article but his had covered it. I think the better move is make a serious effort to resign Desmond, he's a better than Miller. At the very least, as I pointed out, the Nats need a better kicker than Hutlzen.
PrometheusWakefield said:
yea, the red sox are clearly winners. Zimmermann is an ace pitcher, tyler clippard is an elite set up guy, we give up one year of a guy we have no position for and one year of a guy who could fall apart at any moment and who was injured for much of last year. If I am the nats i wouldnt trade Zimm for Brad Miller. They actually kind of need tyler clippard next season as well. people are really overestimating how badly the nationals need to make any trades. if they dont get anything for zimmermann all they are going to get is what, ace level production in a year where they are serious world series contenders? They lose 26 mil in payroll this year and what, like $38 mil at the end of next year? they arent broke or anything, they can sign some of their guys to long term deals. I dont see them giving stephen strasburg some massive extension either, i dont think they need to be saving away for that. I wouldnt be surprised if they just take whatever Lester gets and ask Zimmermann to sign that.
edit: they are alrady paying Zimmermann 16.5 mil this year, just add like 7 mil on top of that for 6 years and see what he says. Lucas Giolito figures into the long term plans of that org, I see a Zimmermann or Fister extension more likely than any future Strasburg extension. Also, forgot to add the Doug Fister arb money, so losing all three of their big FA and the other expiring contracts frees up around $49 million after next season. They arent broke, they can make some FA deals
If memory serves me right next years FA starter market will be rather rich. The Nats can sit tight for a year, gain from keeping their team together and see what next year brings. With so many quality starters available next year the market may be a tad more team friendly. If the don't resign Zimmerman and others there will be other candidates to go after. I disagree on Strasburg in that Harper and him are a big part of the Nats "fan campaign". I think they'll hang on to him as long as he can perform. If he does well this season I see an extension.sean1562 said:
I agree. Offering Zimmermann another $7million next year would not be difficult for the Nats.
I'll try my hand at a hypothetical three-way trade scenario. WARNING TO ALL: this is entirely made up, but based around players who are said to be available.
Red Sox get:
Jordan Zimmermann, Nick Tepesch
Rangers get:
Yoenis Cespedes, Henry Owens, Jackie Bradley
Nationals get:
Rougned Odor, Allen Webster, Manuel Margot, Michael Choice
In addition to getting the big bat they covet, the Rangers clear up their infield logjam and get a bounceback/change of scenery guy. Nationals solve their 2B issue and get a lotto ticket and a couple of post-hype guys. Red Sox get their man in Zimmermann and you know Cheringon would try to get a reliever out of this deal.
In looking at this deal I've concocted, I'm not sure why the Rangers wouldn't just try making their own Odor or Profar for Zimmermann or Fister deal. I think the Red Sox and Nationals just aren't a good match, unfortunately.
Red Sox get:
Jordan Zimmermann, Nick Tepesch
Rangers get:
Yoenis Cespedes, Henry Owens, Jackie Bradley
Nationals get:
Rougned Odor, Allen Webster, Manuel Margot, Michael Choice
In addition to getting the big bat they covet, the Rangers clear up their infield logjam and get a bounceback/change of scenery guy. Nationals solve their 2B issue and get a lotto ticket and a couple of post-hype guys. Red Sox get their man in Zimmermann and you know Cheringon would try to get a reliever out of this deal.
In looking at this deal I've concocted, I'm not sure why the Rangers wouldn't just try making their own Odor or Profar for Zimmermann or Fister deal. I think the Red Sox and Nationals just aren't a good match, unfortunately.
With a name like "Rougned Odor" this guy belongs in Texas. Well maybe Washington is a good place after all.
Completely agree it's a huge overpay for one year of Zimmerman especially if an extension process drags out and becomes a distraction. If we can have an extension completed as part of this trade it would still be fairly steep but something I think we can all happily live with.MakMan44 said:
Would trading for Davis (KC) using Cespedes make sense. I know he's not a starter but can significantly upgrade pen.
Better. I was reading that KC does not want to let him go. Davis they seemed to be flexible on. Would address KC need for a bat but he'd have to move to RF with Gordon there.MakMan44 said:
Dan Lifshatz @Dan_Lifshatz · 2h 2 hours ago So a new team interested in Yoenis Cespedes? Hearing the Mets could have some interest
Gee likely doesn't deserve a rotation spot on a team looking to contend for a World Series title.
At best, he's a back of the rotation guy.
At best, he's a back of the rotation guy.
Their upside? Sure they have the edge. But Niese is a pretty solid low end 3 or very high end 4. Since he's extended at pretty reasonable prices, I'd be happy to get him back. There is the question of how well he'd do in the AL though.Rudy Pemberton said: