Trading for Starting Pitching

[Savin Hillbilly]

3. Ross for Cespedes and something minor sounds fair.

 
I don't really understand how Ross could be available for that little, but if so, get 'er done Ben. Ross is scary long-term because the delivery and the reliance on sliders make him seem like a Tommy John waiting to happen. But I'd be happy to give up a redundant OF on a 1-year contract, plus a middling prospect, for a chance to gamble that the other shoe won't drop for Ross in the next 2-3 years. 9-ish K rate plus mid-50's ground ball rate? I'm in.

 

[67WasBest]

 
I don't really understand how Ross could be available for that little, but if so, get 'er done Ben. Ross is scary long-term because the delivery and the reliance on sliders make him seem like a Tommy John waiting to happen. But I'd be happy to give up a redundant OF on a 1-year contract, plus a middling prospect, for a chance to gamble that the other shoe won't drop for Ross in the next 2-3 years. 9-ish K rate plus mid-50's ground ball rate? I'm in.

I meant to reply to you earlier that Ross is the best target because of his extreme ground ball rates and low cost.  I think they could bundle Cecchini and Webster with Cespedes and get something done.  It might be a slight overpay, but the hitters are redundant, and Webster needs a place like Petco to flourish.  They could turn Cespedes into more young talent at the trade deadline.

 

[MakMan44]

I'd love to sub in Barnes for Webster but I think that's close to a pretty fair deal on both sides. 

 

[circus catch]

Ross Road ERA last year - 4.02
Ross Road ERA last three years - 4.61
 
The difference between pitching in Petco and Fenway is enormous. Two very different worlds. I like the idea of dealing Cespedes and some expendable prospects for a big-time starter, but Ross isn't it, and I'm pleased that the rumor suggests that the Sox see it the same way.  
 
Kennedy's road ERA was actually lower than his home ERA last year, so maybe he's matured into a solid 2-3 starter. I wouldn't bet Cespedes on that though either. 

 

[Lynchie]

To me, Kennedy and Porcello are not for this Red Sox team. We already have the guys to round out the rotation. We need two studs at the top of our rotation, a well above average 3rd starter and an anchor at the back or you can forget the dreams of playoffs. The Red Sox need to keep muscling up. The grind of the season will expose a thin team. Ben and ownership obviously know this.

 

[Apisith]

Ross Road ERA last year - 4.02
Ross Road ERA last three years - 4.61
 
The difference between pitching in Petco and Fenway is enormous. Two very different worlds. I like the idea of dealing Cespedes and some expendable prospects for a big-time starter, but Ross isn't it, and I'm pleased that the rumor suggests that the Sox see it the same way.  
 
Kennedy's road ERA was actually lower than his home ERA last year, so maybe he's matured into a solid 2-3 starter. I wouldn't bet Cespedes on that though either. 

Sure, Fenway isn't Petco, but a wipeout slider against RHH would be awesome. If he struggles against lefties, it's not too bad because of the spacious RF which homers and doubles go to die.

 

[rodderick]

Sure, Fenway isn't Petco, but a wipeout slider against RHH would be awesome. If he struggles against lefties, it's not too bad because of the spacious RF which homers and doubles go to die.

 
And his groundball rate is fantastic as well. I think Fenway plays to his strengths as a pitcher.

 

[Drek717]

 
And then AJ Preller said that as long as Xander and Swihart were coming with Cespedes, they had a deal.
 
In all seriousness, it's going to take at least a B+ prospect plus Cespedes to get Ross all by himself.

Starters known to be/likely to be available on the trade market:
Zimmerman
Fister
Porcello
Sanchez
Samardzija
Kazmir
Cueto
Latos
Leake
Kennedy
Ross
Cashner
Iwakuma
Niese
Hamels
etc.
 
I could keep going, but these are just the ones I could remember off the top of my head.  If one year of Jason Heyward gets four years of Shelby Miller I don't think Cespedes getting three of Tyson Ross is crazy by any means.  Teams are selling pitching across the league, and they're doing so in the pursuit of offense, namely power.  Asking for Fried or Kelly is a little much, but maybe the deal is acutally Cespedes + one of Cecchini/Marrero?  Would make the pitching prospect ask more reasonable.

 

[circus catch]

Rodderick, if the groundball rate for Ross is so well-suited for Fenway, why doesn't it play out that way on the road? Wouldn't a high groundball rate be helpful in virtually all parks? I'll still pass on Cespedes for Ross straight up.

 

[Drek717]

Rodderick, if the groundball rate for Ross is so well-suited for Fenway, why doesn't it play out that way on the road? Wouldn't a high groundball rate be helpful in virtually all parks? I'll still pass on Cespedes for Ross straight up.

Some guys struggle on the road period, especially younger pitchers.
 
He is disproportionately good at home in terms of real results and there is a significant BABIP swing (.218 vs .326 in 2013, .267 vs .315 last season) indicating that park factors are playing a role, but his FIP and xFIP in 2013 road games was still 2.89 and 3.36 (as compared to a 3.61/3.52 home set) and in 2014 it was 4.14 and 3.52 (as compared to 2.40 and 2.72 at home).
 
He is a talented pitcher who is still having some ups and downs.  Is it likely that his home numbers shine brighter than they should because of Petco?  Sure.  But then his road numbers are artificially marred by a freakishly low 65% LOB rate in 2013, a significant jump in BB% on the road in 2014 (not something dictated by park factors), etc..
 
Given three years of arb. control where Ross would likely be no worse than a quality mid-rotation guy but having the potential to take the next step as a legit #2 I would think Cespedes for Ross makes a lot of sense for both teams.  Maybe a little light for San Diego, but then everyone is trying to sell pitching for hitting this winter.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

Cherrington on WEEI was asked "Can you definitively say that Mookie Betts will be on the team next year?" and he said (paraphrasing) "Well, Mookie showed last year when he came up that he can help out a major league team. We will just have to see how the winter plays out."

Sounds like they're certainly open to trading Mookie if they have to. Man that would make me sick.

 

[grimshaw]

I would include Owens in a deal for Sanchez.  He's more reasonably priced than Hamels and (comparable if not slightly better than Sanchez) and is locked up from age 30-33.
 
There's nothing that says the Red Sox couldn't get Ross as well.  So many chips to move.

 

[ivanvamp]

Cherrington on WEEI was asked "Can you definitively say that Mookie Betts will be on the team next year?" and he said (paraphrasing) "Well, Mookie showed last year when he came up that he can help out a major league team. We will just have to see how the winter plays out."

Sounds like they're certainly open to trading Mookie if they have to. Man that would make me sick.

 
Only three SP I consider trading Betts for:  Kershaw, Felix, and Sale.  That's it.  I might consider Harvey if the Mets threw in some more.  But the list is exceedingly small.  If he includes Betts in a Hamels deal I will be beside myself.  

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

 
Only three SP I consider trading Betts for:  Kershaw, Felix, and Sale.  That's it.  I might consider Harvey if the Mets threw in some more.  But the list is exceedingly small.  If he includes Betts in a Hamels deal I will be beside myself.  

It's my biggest nightmare, Betts for Hamels.

I was really really hoping that Cherrington would use that to shoot down any thoughts that Betts would be dished.

guess he was in a tough spot, though, because if he says 'yeah he's going to be in our outfield everyday' then all of a sudden, he gives away that Cespedes is on the block, regardless of how obvious it is. He can still tell teams that Betts can start in AAA and Cespedes in RF.

 

[moondog80]

Cherrington on WEEI was asked "Can you definitively say that Mookie Betts will be on the team next year?" and he said (paraphrasing) "Well, Mookie showed last year when he came up that he can help out a major league team. We will just have to see how the winter plays out."

Sounds like they're certainly open to trading Mookie if they have to. Man that would make me sick.

 
 
I'm not reading much into it.  Just a GM not showing his hand.

 

[Wingack]

Starters known to be/likely to be available on the trade market:
Zimmerman
Fister
Porcello
Sanchez
Samardzija
Kazmir
Cueto
Latos
Leake
Kennedy
Ross
Cashner
Iwakuma
Niese
Hamels
etc.
 
I could keep going, but these are just the ones I could remember off the top of my head.  If one year of Jason Heyward gets four years of Shelby Miller I don't think Cespedes getting three of Tyson Ross is crazy by any means.  Teams are selling pitching across the league, and they're doing so in the pursuit of offense, namely power.  Asking for Fried or Kelly is a little much, but maybe the deal is acutally Cespedes + one of Cecchini/Marrero?  Would make the pitching prospect ask more reasonable.

 
You are missing out on the huge difference between the Cardinals and Padres getting a power hitter for one year (aside from the fact that Heyward is a better player than Cespedes), the Cardinals were a 90 win team and Padres were below .500. When you are in a position to win it all, you can make different kinds of trades. 

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

 
 
I'm not reading much into it.  Just a GM not showing his hand.

Yeah just seems like a bit of a departure from his comments pretty definitively calling Mookie, along with Bogaerts and Vazquez, as part of the future core of the Sox.

Though I am sure he doesn't want to publicly pigeon hole himself into basically saying only Cespedes is available.

 

[Drek717]

 
You are missing out on the huge difference between the Cardinals and Padres getting a power hitter for one year (aside from the fact that Heyward is a better player than Cespedes), the Cardinals were a 90 win team and Padres were below .500. When you are in a position to win it all, you can make different kinds of trades. 

And when you're the Padres and you're desperate for name recognition you make different kinds of trades too.
 
People with legitimate sources are tying the Padres to Cespedes.  People with legitimate sources have tied Cashner and Ross to the Sox.
 
At the same time, great, the Padres think that's too much.  I'm sure one of the nearly half dozen teams (Detroit, Cincy, Seattle, Washington, Oakland) with starters I previously mentioned considers themselves in a position to win it all with Cespedes' bat as a difference maker in that regard.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

The bottom line IMO is that the Sox have to get one frontline starting pitcher through free agency. If they try to get 2 top starters through trade we will be depleting what once would have been a deep farm system.

 

[MakMan44]

To me, Kennedy and Porcello are not for this Red Sox team. We already have the guys to round out the rotation. We need two studs at the top of our rotation, a well above average 3rd starter and an anchor at the back or you can forget the dreams of playoffs. The Red Sox need to keep muscling up. The grind of the season will expose a thin team. Ben and ownership obviously know this.

Exactly! That's why Porcello and Kennedy fit on this team. I'd make the argument they had #3 like seasons last year, but you can question whether that will happen next season.that's completely fair. My point is that both guys would be significant upgrades to the 4 and 5 spots. If nothing else they've been healthy and put up solid, if not ace numbers in their career. If you can give your last spot to one of those guys over a question mark rookie (and that's all they showed last season, they're all still question marks) it allows you to stash those question marks as depth to only bring up tour if a starter goes down.

 

[Wingack]

And when you're the Padres and you're desperate for name recognition you make different kinds of trades too.
 
People with legitimate sources are tying the Padres to Cespedes.  People with legitimate sources have tied Cashner and Ross to the Sox.
 
At the same time, great, the Padres think that's too much.  I'm sure one of the nearly half dozen teams (Detroit, Cincy, Seattle, Washington, Oakland) with starters I previously mentioned considers themselves in a position to win it all with Cespedes' bat as a difference maker in that regard.

 
I am sure that the Red Sox will be able to get something for Cespedes. I just am not entirely sure it is all that great a pitcher that everyone around here is hoping for. Most MLB GM's know what on base percentage is. 

 

[opes]

Why trade for Kennedy when you could just sign a FA sp?  Liriano would be similar. 

 

[MakMan44]

Mobile app makes it impossible to edit a long post like that, apologies for the double post.

That said, I'd rather have either one of those guys over Buch next season. Buch's upside is much, much greater but he's rarely able to stay healthy and he's been awful at times. Both guys are upgrades to that. They're steady, reliable pitchers (as much as pitchers can be) and that's what you're saying we need next season which I agree with.

 

[MakMan44]

Why trade for Kennedy when you could just sign a FA sp?  Liriano would be similar. 

Because Liriano costs a pick, can't stay healthy and only put up back to back solid years when he hit the NL central. I'm not saying you give up Cespedes for him, or even Garin but I'm merely trying to argue he's a fit for the Sox at this point not making a case for what I'd give up.

 

[Lynchie]

Exactly! That's why Porcello and Kennedy fit on this team. I'd make the argument they had #3 like seasons last year, but you can question whether that will happen next season.that's completely fair. My point is that both guys would be significant upgrades to the 4 and 5 spots. If nothing else they've been healthy and put up solid, if not ace numbers in their career. If you can give your last spot to one of those guys over a question mark rookie (and that's all they showed last season, they're all still question marks) it allows you to stash those question marks as depth to only bring up tour if a starter goes down.

I'd go with Kelly and Bucky 4-5. No resources wasted for those two spots and they can be more than they have shown.

3. Fister/Sanchez
2. Cueto
1. Lester

I like to dream. Big.

 

[MakMan44]

I keep forgetting about Kelly. And that's fair, that's a great rotation and in that scenario you wouldn't need either guy. I don't think it's realistic but I understand your position. Shoot, I'd be happy to be wrong and have that play out.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

Dan Lifshatz @Dan_Lifshatz  ·  9m 9 minutes ago

Sox had been offered Kennedy in talks. Boston had no interest and asked for Ross or Cashner. Talks have stalled as of now

 

[Lynchie]

I keep forgetting about Kelly. And that's fair, that's a great rotation and in that scenario you wouldn't need either guy. I don't think it's realistic but I understand your position. Shoot, I'd be happy to be wrong and have that play out.

It's all good here Bro, we're just talking. It's what hot stove is all about for me.

 

[MakMan44]

I'm a bit surprised the Sox didn't at least try to expand the deal. I wouldn't deal Cespedes straight up for Kennedy but if you can get an extra piece that's something that might work.

 

[rodderick]

 

Dan Lifshatz @Dan_Lifshatz  ·  9m 9 minutes ago

Sox had been offered Kennedy in talks. Boston had no interest and asked for Ross or Cashner. Talks have stalled as of now
 

 
Well, if that's the problem, they could always include a prospect to sweeten the deal and try to get Ross/Cashner. 

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'm a bit surprised the Sox didn't at least try to expand the deal. I wouldn't deal Cespedes straight up for Kennedy but if you can get an extra piece that's something that might work.

Why though? Kennedy' only real positive is he throws lots of mediocre innings. Why trade a real asset for a low upside #4? They need a good starter not a mostly shitty one and another mediocre piece.

 

[moondog80]

Because Liriano costs a pick, can't stay healthy and only put up back to back solid years when he hit the NL central. I'm not saying you give up Cespedes for him, or even Garin but I'm merely trying to argue he's a fit for the Sox at this point not making a case for what I'd give up.

 
 
What division has Kennedy pitched in?  Liriano has been plenty healthy, averaged 28 starts the last 5 years, and has superior number to Kennedy across the board.  And the pick he costs is what, 4th round at this point?  

 

[ConigsCorner]

It's my biggest nightmare, Betts for Hamels.

I was really really hoping that Cherrington would use that to shoot down any thoughts that Betts would be dished.

guess he was in a tough spot, though, because if he says 'yeah he's going to be in our outfield everyday' then all of a sudden, he gives away that Cespedes is on the block, regardless of how obvious it is. He can still tell teams that Betts can start in AAA and Cespedes in RF.

 
 

Cherrington on WEEI was asked "Can you definitively say that Mookie Betts will be on the team next year?" and he said (paraphrasing) "Well, Mookie showed last year when he came up that he can help out a major league team. We will just have to see how the winter plays out."

Sounds like they're certainly open to trading Mookie if they have to. Man that would make me sick.

I never put much stock into what a GM says publicly.  There is no upside to being honest.  Why would you show your cards?

 

[BeantownIdaho]

I agree with some of you...try to get Ross by adding some prospects...we do have a surplus of 3b right now. Not sure what they are going to do with WMB??? Switch him and Cecchini to first???
 
I think we can get some starting pitching we need without trading Xander or Mookie...it seems a deal for Ross or Sanchez can be made that includes Cespedes and some other young talent.

 

[MakMan44]

Why though? Kennedy' only real positive is he throws lots of mediocre innings. Why trade a real asset for a low upside #4? They need a good starter not a mostly shitty one and another mediocre piece.

I guess but I think we might be overvaluing Cepesdes a bit. Like we've been finding out, it's hard to find a fair value deal for him. That being said, yeah going Rodderick's route and trying to add on our side is probably the better one right now.

 

[MakMan44]

 
 
What division has Kennedy pitched in?  Liriano has been plenty healthy, averaged 28 starts the last 5 years, and has superior number to Kennedy across the board.  And the pick he costs is what, 4th round at this point?  

I'll have to check Fangraphs when I'm not about to eat breakfast, but I may end up agreeing with you. I just recall a lot of variation year to year, and that's not what we need right now.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
I am sure that the Red Sox will be able to get something for Cespedes. I just am not entirely sure it is all that great a pitcher that everyone around here is hoping for. Most MLB GM's know what on base percentage is. 

 
They also know what one year of control with no draft compensation is. Any trade of Cespedes for a pitcher worth having is going to have to include one or more prospects or cost-controlled ML'ers as well. We're not getting bupkis for him one-up.
 
EDIT: To be clear, I'm talking about cost-controlled pitchers like Ross. A trade for somebody in the same position as Cespedes, like Iwakuma, might be a different story, though even there the lack of draft compensation will muddy the waters.

 

[pockmeister]

I agree with some of you...try to get Ross by adding some prospects...we do have a surplus of 3b right now. Not sure what they are going to do with WMB??? Switch him and Cecchini to first???
 

 
WMB is a non-factor now.  He's successfully proven he can't hit major league pitching.  He has an option, so the likely outcome is the Sox send him back to Pawtucket to give him a final shot at re-establishing some value.  He can perhaps spend the season learning to wear contact lenses or glasses, and is available to come back to Boston if a catastrophic injury combination occurs, assuming he does locate the baseball again.  His trade value is minimal at the moment, so the best thing for the Sox is to stash him away, teach him 1B so that he and Cecchini can get plenty of Pawtucket ABs whilst covering 3B, LF and 1B between them, and hope that magic happens.  Failing that, he disappears at the end of 2015.

 

[moondog80]

I'll have to check Fangraphs when I'm not about to eat breakfast, but I may end up agreeing with you. I just recall a lot of variation year to year, and that's not what we need right now.

 
It could be that you were looking at the year he got traded mid-season and thought they reflected full years of 11 and 17 starts.  But he's made 29, 26, 28, 24, and 31 starts.  So he misses starts here and there, which is notable, but never misses huge chunks of a season.  I don't want him to be the best starter they acquire, but I'd love him as a 3rd-4th starter.

 

[gryoung]

 
WMB is a non-factor now.  He's successfully proven he can't hit major league pitching.  He has an option, so the likely outcome is the Sox send him back to Pawtucket to give him a final shot at re-establishing some value.  He can perhaps spend the season learning to wear contact lenses or glasses, and is available to come back to Boston if a catastrophic injury combination occurs, assuming he does locate the baseball again.  His trade value is minimal at the moment, so the best thing for the Sox is to stash him away, teach him 1B so that he and Cecchini can get plenty of Pawtucket ABs whilst covering 3B, LF and 1B between them, and hope that magic happens.  Failing that, he disappears at the end of 2015.

 
I agree with this and am a bit saddened around the whole WMB thing.  The kid is an athlete who showed some serious power.  But he seems either unwilling to be coached or unable to make adjustments.  When he (allegedly) refused to go to fall/winter ball, that was the final nail with the Sox I bet.
 
And who knows what the Jenny D relationship has done to him .........

 

[nattysez]

Dave Cameron proposes:  Cespedes and Napoli to Mariners, Zimmermann and Clippard to Sox, Brad Miller and Danny Hultzen to Nats.  I suspect the Nats would want more than Miller and Hultzen given how badly this trade would degrade their chances to win in 2015.  Cameron argues that the Nats would make this deal if they look long-term and realize they need to trade away some of their guys who only have 1 year left on their deals to avoid a rough 2016, but I have to wonder if the Nats would prefer to GFIN while Stras, Werth, etc., are in their primes and worry about 2016 later (particularly after they got so much heat for sitting Stras for the playoffs two years ago).

 

[BeantownIdaho]

Kennedy was pretty fantastic next year, a great FIP. Then again, he pitched in SD and everyone has great years there. I'd be really cautious of any Padre pitcher frankly.

If he is pretty fantastic next year you should let Ben know....

 

[LondonSox]

I know the kids disappointed last year, but there are so many good arms in the Sox farm, trading for an average arm seems like a pointless move for me. If you get a #1 via free agency (lester for example) and you have Kelly, Buchholz and RDLR for 3-5, you need a number 2 not another number 4 or 5.
 
I would wager pretty heavily that by mid season you'd be ok with someone from the Barnes, Ranaundo, Webster, Workman, Owens, Johnson etc etc etc
I'm not giving up a chip for a guy who isn't either excellent short term or a long term option.
 
I'd much rather give up Cespedes and a good prospect we are worried about giving a chance to for a really good starter than I would get an arm (Kennedy for example)
 
Better to give up Cespedes plus Webster and Ranaundo for a real #2 than Cespedes and nothing for a #4/5

 

[sean1562]

and who knows what danny hultzen is gonna be. maybe if that was one of walker or paxton but hultzen is a massive question mark.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
Only three SP I consider trading Betts for:  Kershaw, Felix, and Sale.  That's it.  I might consider Harvey if the Mets threw in some more.  But the list is exceedingly small.  If he includes Betts in a Hamels deal I will be beside myself.  

Wait... The Mets need to sweeten that pot? Seriously? If I can get Harvey for Betts straight up I can't say yes fast enough. I love Mookie and there aren't a lot of players out there that I works trade him for, but come on. This is absurd.

 

[MakMan44]

Dave Cameron proposes:  Cespedes and Napoli to Mariners, Zimmermann and Clippard to Sox, Brad Miller and Danny Hultzen to Nats.  I suspect the Nats would want more than Miller and Hultzen given how badly this trade would degrade their chances to win in 2015.  Cameron argues that the Nats would make this deal if they look long-term and realize they need to trade away some of their guys who only have 1 year left on their deals to avoid a rough 2016, but I have to wonder if the Nats would prefer to GFIN while Stras, Werth, etc., are in their primes and worry about 2016 later (particularly after they got so much heat for sitting Stras for the playoffs two years ago).

Yeah that trade makes very little sense for the Nats. Hasn't Hultzen been injured a lot? And Miller is way more valuable as a SS than wherever Cameron thinks he would play for the Nats.

 

[MakMan44]

Wait... The Mets need to sweeten that pot? Seriously? If I can get Harvey for Betts straight up I can't say yes fast enough. I love Mookie and there aren't a lot of players out there that I works trade him for, but come on. This is absurd.

Harvey has less pre are seasons than Mookie and is coming off TJS. Personally, I'd rather keep Mookie but I've been a Theoist this offseason in that I want to keep our young hitters and buy the pitchers.

 

[Wingack]

and who knows what danny hultzen is gonna be. maybe if that was one of walker or paxton but hultzen is a massive question mark.

 
The Nats are the clear losers in that made up proposal as well and the Red Sox are essentially trading spare parts. 

 

[soxhop411]

“@Buster_ESPN: Based on the conversations the Red Sox have had so far, evaluators believe they are going to get a good pitcher for Yoenis Cespedes.”

 

[sean1562]

Yeah that trade makes very little sense for the Nats. Hasn't Hultzen been injured a lot? And Miller is way more valuable as a SS than wherever Cameron thinks he would play for the Nats.

yea i dont understand any of these nationals proposals. everyone keeps saying that they need to trade something or they are risking a horrible 2016 but that is simply not true. this year they just cut like $24 mil in payroll losing LaRoche and Soriano and they will probably end up signing one of Fister or Zimmermann long term. AJ Cole is one of their top prospects and could easily be ready for a rotation spot next year. they have a farm system. And one of those players is perhaps the best pitching prospect in the league. I said it earlier, they should sign one of the Cuban 2B when they become eligible and just go into next year as is. The Cameron trade is basically Zimmermann for Miller and Clippard for Hultzen. That isnt a great trade for them, why not jst sign a FA 2B?