Trade Rumors

[Dewey'sCannon]

Regarding the latest reports:

1. Wouldn't trade JBJ or any of the "top" prospects (except maybe Margot) for one year of Chapman, but would package others. Would give more for Kimbral, given the years of control (despite the salary, which should reduce acquisition cost).
2. Would consider JBJ to Seattle for Paxton, or in a package for Walker if he's available; or to Cleveland in a package for one of their three. JBJ probably a better CF option for Mariners than Gardner (although Gardner probably a better top of the lineup hitter, at least at the moment).

 

[themanwithoneredsock]

In terms of potentially trading X, personally I entertain the idea not because I think there's any special value in having an "Ace", but only because I think there's a decent chance that his current trade value might exceed his actual future value, due both to prospect hype inflation and that the pillars of his value last year were arguably unsustainable and/or unreliable stats (while the more sustainable and reliable stats weren't even mediocre, but poor).

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

If Seattle is looking at JBJ, what would they trade for him? T.Walker?? Works for me. A reliever like Wilhelmsen? Less exciting.

 

[jimbobim]

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 4m4 minutes ago
Wouldn't need to. Plenty of talent beyond them RT @jonsmithsox for 1 year of Chapman surely not Benintendi, Moncada, Espinoza or Devers

2 retweets0 likes

 

[themanwithoneredsock]

And fwiw personally I think Margot has far more value than JBJ. I don't really think it's all that close. Betts/Margot/Benintendi are the future OF, imo. Bradley and Rusney aren't young, and are fringe regulars. If someone wants to give us value because JBJ had one crazy month, i'd jump all over that.

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

If Seattle is looking at JBJ, what would they trade for him?

How about Charlie Furbush?

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Who's a more valuable trade chip?

Gardner or Bradley?

 

[Clears Cleaver]

when you have Betts, X, Swihart, JBJ, Castillo, Moncada, Benintendi, Margot, Devers, Kopeck, Espinoza and ERod it makes me even angrier that they wasted so much $$ on Hanley and Pablo. Imagine having that money in reserve and this farm system right now? Could easily sign one SP and trade for one and get a corner IF like C Davis to go with Shaw.

I suspect that the overhaul of the pitching staff will include trading Miley and acquiring two starters to go with Buch, Erod and Porcello. Owens etc in AAA. I have no idea which two or what they do in bullpen. Chapman sounds great, but getting a one year solution is not really the solution for this particular team

 

[chrisfont9]

How about Charlie Furbush?

Not much of a return for a starting player. If we were selling low, maybe. Furbush is also probably someone they really want to hold on to, given what a disaster their bullpen is and how they need to build it up. So to me that's a trade I'm not sure either side likes.

 

[chrisfont9]

when you have Betts, X, Swihart, JBJ, Castillo, Moncada, Benintendi, Margot, Devers, Kopeck, Espinoza and ERod it makes me even angrier that they wasted so much $$ on Hanley and Pablo. Imagine having that money in reserve and this farm system right now? Could easily sign one SP and trade for one and get a corner IF like C Davis to go with Shaw.

In fairness, Betts is about the only guy on that list the team was reasonably sure about when they signed Panda and Hanley.

 

[smastroyin]

To be unfair, that's why it was one year too early to try and make that splash. but w/e.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Who's a more valuable trade chip?

Gardner or Bradley?

Good question. I'd say JBJ, generally. Gardner has a higher floor, so some teams might well prefer him, but JBJ is much cheaper and might have the higher ceiling, so more teams would be in on him. It's close.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

From a Fangraphs chat today:
Eno Sarris: Yeah, I mean, let’s see what Chapman gets. I bet it’s underwhelming. And if Chapman’s return is underwhelming, what’s Giles going to get.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

In fairness, Betts is about the only guy on that list the team was reasonably sure about when they signed Panda and Hanley.

this is true, but is there anyone to blame for that? Did they all of sudden become great developers of talent? Or bad evaluators of their own talent? Obviously, Benintendi was not in the system yet.

redsoxstats
MLBN Radio: "Dombrowski would much prefer Giles to Chapman."
11/12/15, 3:01 PM

 

[kazuneko]

Seems like if Sale did become available the Sox would be in a prime position to land him. Per Gammons:
“If Jerry Reinsdorf would be willing to listen,” says an NL GM, “Boston could play. The White Sox need catching and they love Blake Swihart. They want a young shortstop, and (20-year old) Javier Guerra is as good as there is around. There are a lot of prospects there.”
Of course the uncertainty surrounding Vazquez makes it difficult to trade Swihart, but you'd have to think that if the Sox did feel confident about Vazquez's recovery that is a trade they'd be quick to pull the trigger on...

 

[jimbobim]

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats 9m9 minutes ago
MLBN Radio: "Dombrowski would much prefer Giles to Chapman."

Giles is cheaper, under way more control, and therefore will cost a decent ton. I wonder about a KC type strategy that sees them acquire both Giles and Chapman to pair with Koji and Taz. Talk about shortening games and tempting Farrell to not try and bleed that 7th inning out of a tiring pitcher.

The biggest problem would be bullpen trades are extremely difficult to forecast though so the respective packages for Giles or Chapman are very tough to predict.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

Seems like if Sale did become available the Sox would be in a prime position to land him. Per Gammons:
“If Jerry Reinsdorf would be willing to listen,” says an NL GM, “Boston could play. The White Sox need catching and they love Blake Swihart. They want a young shortstop, and (20-year old) Javier Guerra is as good as there is around. There are a lot of prospects there.”
Of course the uncertainty surrounding Vazquez makes it difficult to trade Swihart, but you'd have to think that if the Sox did feel confident about Vazquez's recovery that is a trade they'd be quick to pull the trigger on...

I think if you can have Sale for Swihart and Guerra+minor pieces, you do that deal and have Leon as a back-up until Vasquez is ready to go..

 

[JimD]

I don't get the rush to trade Swihart. Vasquez is still trying to get back from TJ surgery and Hannigan is old. As much as I'd like Chris Sale in a Boston uniform, this could blow up in their faces.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

No rush at all. At least not for me; I love the kid. In fact I'd prefer to just give $200m to Price and take my chances there.
But absent that, if I can get Chris Sale for him, I think I do it.

 

[67WasBest]

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats 9m9 minutes ago
MLBN Radio: "Dombrowski would much prefer Giles to Chapman."

Just to caution all on the above. This was nothing more than Jim Bowden spouting off on a caller response. That siad, it's a given that DD would prefer Giles over just about any closer other than Allen.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Seems like if Sale did become available the Sox would be in a prime position to land him. Per Gammons:
“If Jerry Reinsdorf would be willing to listen,” says an NL GM, “Boston could play. The White Sox need catching and they love Blake Swihart. They want a young shortstop, and (20-year old) Javier Guerra is as good as there is around. There are a lot of prospects there.”
Of course the uncertainty surrounding Vazquez makes it difficult to trade Swihart, but you'd have to think that if the Sox did feel confident about Vazquez's recovery that is a trade they'd be quick to pull the trigger on...

Confident about Vazquez or also potentially confident about Hanigan. If Swihart can be the primary piece to bring back Sale (needless to say a huge if), the risk of a few months of Hanigan as starting C for a few months as Vazquez rehabs seems like a pretty small issue.

 

[moondog80]

I don't get the rush to trade Swihart. Vasquez is still trying to get back from TJ surgery and Hannigan is old. As much as I'd like Chris Sale in a Boston uniform, this could blow up in their faces.

I don't think trading Swihart for an elite starter signed to ridiculously good deal (only one year fewer control than Swihart himself has) is a "rush to trade" him.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Who's a more valuable trade chip?

Gardner or Bradley?

Gardner makes $13m per year, is 7 years older, and put up 0.2 more WAR last year in 300+ more PA.

Bradley is much more valuable.

 

[circus catch]

I understand that everyone is tradeable, but dealing Bradley hurts us defensively in almost every scenario, and to me Castillo is still suspect. So, a Chapman deal gets us one year of a dominant reliever, and a first round pick if he leaves, but it leaves a gaping hole in left, and we still haven't addressed starting pitching. I'll pass, and go a step further and say I don't want to deal Bradley for any reliever.

 

[KillerBs]

I agree the Bradley for Chapman talk scares me. An obvious point, but we will get a chance to over pay Chapman next year in any event. One year (65 IP) of Aroldis for 5 years of Bradley strikes me as highly dubious, especially as will need to go out and pay for another OFer. Jackie's floor is a very good 4th OFer and cieling is as an All-Star, so dealing him for a bullpen arm, admittedly an unbelievable one, would be very high risk.

 

[moondog80]

I agree the Bradley for Chapman talk scares me. An obvious point, but we will get a chance to over pay Chapman next year in any event. One year (65 IP) of Aroldis for 5 years of Bradley strikes me as highly dubious, especially as will need to go out and pay for another OFer. Jackie's floor is a very good 4th OFer and cieling is as an All-Star, so dealing him for a bullpen arm, admittedly an unbelievable one, would be very high risk.

To be clear, I made up the Bradley/Chapman deal as a way to gauge where we thought JBJs value was; there is a certain amount of logic to it IMO, but as far as I know it has no basis beyond my imagination.

 

[joe dokes]

I agree the Bradley for Chapman talk scares me. An obvious point, but we will get a chance to over pay Chapman next year in any event. One year (65 IP) of Aroldis for 5 years of Bradley strikes me as highly dubious, especially as will need to go out and pay for another OFer. Jackie's floor is a very good 4th OFer and cieling is as an All-Star, so dealing him for a bullpen arm, admittedly an unbelievable one, would be very high risk.

I think we have seen Jackie's floor. We lived there for the better part of 2 years. It is not a very good 4th OF. It's AAAA player with a Hall of Fame glove and a historically bad bat.

 

[nvalvo]

Buying low would have been the case on July 31. Now, I'm not so sure.

Wold you trade him for Chapman?

No. A team that won 78 last season needs a pre-arb starting OF more than we need a second expensive elite lockdown closer with one year of control.

 

[SydneySox]

Is Cueto not an elite SP?

I'm really asking. I know he had a poor half season in KC but he also delivered a 2 hitter in the World Series.

 

[chawson]

I agree the Bradley for Chapman talk scares me.

FWIW, likelihood is low. The questions and certainties about Bradley apply as much to their current CF than any other team in baseball.

 

[Bdanahy14]

Is Cueto not an elite SP?

I'm really asking. I know he had a poor half season in KC but he also delivered a 2 hitter in the World Series.

I think he should be, but the concern (I'm guessing) is how the transition to the AL would work itself out long term. He had issues this year when he moved over.. but sample size is too small for me to throw the towel on him not being considered elite anymore. Not to mention his BABIP jumped up over 100 points.

 

[soxhop411]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale 6m6 minutes ago
The #Redsox in talks with #Reds on Aroldis Chapman, as @Ken_Rosenthal reported, but no deal close of yet.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale 8m8 minutes ago
The #Redsox in talks with #Reds on Aroldis Chapman, as @Ken_Rosenthal reported, but no deal close of yet.

 

[SydneySox]

I think he should be, but the concern (I'm guessing) is how the transition to the AL would work itself out long term. He had issues this year when he moved over.. but sample size is too small for me to throw the towel on him not being considered elite anymore. Not to mention his BABIP jumped up over 100 points.

Understood. 'Elite' is just such a subjective term that everything is fluid. But I'd argue from that subjective viewpoint that KC went into the playoffs with an 'elite' SP.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think we have seen Jackie's floor. We lived there for the better part of 2 years. It is not a very good 4th OF. It's AAAA player with a Hall of Fame glove and a historically bad bat.

Just because that is his career floor doesn't mean it's his floor going forward. I don't think there's any reason to think he'll ever be as bad again for a whole season as he was in 2014.

OTOH, I also think it would be rash to assume he'll ever be as good again for a whole season as he was in 2015. People talking as if he established a new normal this year are really jumping the gun. What he has established is how good he can be when he gets hot. And that's great to know. What we don't know is how much time he will spend in that zone over the course of a typical season, and what the rest of the time will look like. He could easily turn out to be a .240/.320/.400 kind of hitter overall, which with his defense makes him a solid player, but not a player that we would have serious regrets about having traded for quality pitching help, even short-term quality pitching help. It's highly unlikely we're looking at Jeff Bagwell II here.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Personally I wouldn't mind seeing Castillo and some B prospects head to Cincinnati and the Sox get Bruce and Chapman back. Would be a nice little start to the offseason.

 

[chawson]

He could easily turn out to be a .240/.320/.400 kind of hitter overall, which with his defense makes him a solid player, but not a player that we would have serious regrets about having traded for quality pitching help, even short-term quality pitching help. It's highly unlikely we're looking at Jeff Bagwell II here.

Wouldn't a .240/.320/.400 line over a full season put him at roughly Kevin Kiermaier's level (in 2015)? Because that would be one of the top 15-20 position players in baseball.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Wouldn't a .240/.320/.400 line over a full season put him at roughly Kevin Kiermaier's level (in 2015)? Because that would be one of the top 15-20 position players in baseball.

It would, but you have to be a true believer in defensive valuation systems to consider Kiermaier a top 10-15 position player.

 

[alwyn96]

It would, but you have to be a true believer in defensive valuation systems to consider Kiermaier a top 10-15 position player.

Also, Bradley would have to be playing CF, which it's not clear that he would be. I'm not sure it's even possible for corner OF to put up the kind of defensive numbers Kiermaier had last year.

If you believe the stats, Kiermaier was somehow twice as good defensively in 2015 as Bradley was in 2014.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

It would, but you have to be a true believer in defensive valuation systems to consider Kiermaier a top 10-15 position player.

Or maybe he's just Kevin Pillar? .278/.314/.399 and he put up 4.3 WAR. That's right behind Matt Harvey, and just above Cole Hamels and Cueto.

JBJ only goes as the primary player for an ace, IMO. And if they are valued equally by our trade partners, I'd rather give up Swihart than JBJ.

 

[Hombre]

Is Cueto not an elite SP?

I'm really asking. I know he had a poor half season in KC but he also delivered a 2 hitter in the World Series.

Sure seems like a guy that will have success against NL teams that may not translate in the AL.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

Sure seems like a guy that will have success against NL teams that may not translate in the AL.

He's made 28 interleague starts, 2.68 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3-to-1 K/BB, only Kershaw better interleague numbers.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Sure seems like a guy that will have success against NL teams that may not translate in the AL.

Or maybe he just had a poor/unlucky 2nd half.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

I don't get the rush to trade Swihart. Vasquez is still trying to get back from TJ surgery and Hannigan is old. As much as I'd like Chris Sale in a Boston uniform, this could blow up in their faces.

I think the rush is more to do with Sale than it is to trade Swihart. Of the desireable major league talent the Red Sox have (Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart), Swihart is the easiest one to trade.

I would trade Swihart, Guerra and a prospect out of the top 10 for Sale in a heartbeat. Sale has a great contract and is a true ace. I'd then push for Jordan Zimmerman, and try to deal Miley and/or Buchholz.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Confident about Vazquez or also potentially confident about Hanigan. If Swihart can be the primary piece to bring back Sale (needless to say a huge if), the risk of a few months of Hanigan as starting C for a few months as Vazquez rehabs seems like a pretty small issue.

I've already said how I'd never trade Swihart...BUT, if he brought back Sale I'd take it, under the assumption that the Red Sox probably pick up Weiters on a Boras-friendly short-term deal in lieu of him accepting Baltimore's QO.

Regardless, it all sounds stupid to me. Who thinks Sale is going anywhere?

{also - I agree with the poster (Alwyn?) who said if Bradley's such a defensive juggernaut, how can you not play him in CF...}

 

[nvalvo]

Or maybe he just had a poor/unlucky 2nd half.

Even then, most of the damage came in a five start stretch between late August and mid-September in which he gave up 28 runs in 26 1/3 innings. The Red Sox started it, in the game when Swihart went four for four. The two starts preceding this stretch he allowed one run in seventeen total innings against Detroit and Los Angeles of Anaheim, with twelve hits and no walks allowed.

My barely-informed guess is a dead arm period (or something like that) stemming from the big innings jump due to his injury in 2014. He worked through it. Either that, or he's hurt. But a) reportedly, his elbow has checked out okay since the season, and b) he threw a CGSO in the World Series.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I think the rush is more to do with Sale than it is to trade Swihart. Of the desireable major league talent the Red Sox have (Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart), Swihart is the easiest one to trade.

I would trade Swihart, Guerra and a prospect out of the top 10 for Sale in a heartbeat. Sale has a great contract and is a true ace. I'd then push for Jordan Zimmerman, and try to deal Miley and/or Buchholz.

I like Sale a lot, but he had a very pedestrian second half of the season. I'm always worried about an arm injury with that funky delivery of his.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

I like Sale a lot, but he had a very pedestrian second half of the season. I'm always worried about an arm injury with that funky delivery of his.

Sale 1st Half: 11.84 K/9, 1.73 BB/9, 2.47 xFIP, Avg FB Velo by month, 04/15 - 06/15: 95.57; 94.88; 95.99

Sale 2nd Half: 11.79 K/9, 1.91 BB/9, 2.78 xFIP, Avg FB Velo by month, 07/15 - 10/15: 96.32, 95.81, 95.14, 95.79

Nothing to worry about in the least.

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

It puzzles me that the White Sox would consider rebuilding when they have a window of control over some elite players. Sure, their farm system is thin, but they have a good rotation headed by Sale and his 274 Ks in 2015, paid for a premium closer last off-season, and have a middle-of-the-order hitter in Jose Abreu locked up on a great contract for several more years. They seem like a team that should be adding this winter, not looking to blow things up. There are plenty of mid-tier free agents out there that could really make a difference for that team.

I mean, isn't the best case scenario of a Chris Sale trade that one player in the deal, maybe, someday, becomes almost as good and perhaps as cost-controlled as Chris Sale is right now?