The unprojectable Clay Buchholz
- Thread starter iayork
- Start date
I think Kazmir had a flexor strain in Spring Training 2008 (some called it an elbow strain). He missed two months (March-April) but part of that was due to having no Spring Training and making 3 rehab starts. May 2008 saw him go 5-0 (33 innings) with a 0.55 ERA and 33 K's.
Based on that and many of this year's flexor strains, 8 weeks is not an unrealistic DL/Rehab period - which puts Buchholz back into a game on 5 September. That's a load of lost starts (11 by my calculation).
Based on that and many of this year's flexor strains, 8 weeks is not an unrealistic DL/Rehab period - which puts Buchholz back into a game on 5 September. That's a load of lost starts (11 by my calculation).
Sampo Gida said:
I think most would agree we do better than that now (that paper is from 1994). Also, I don't know if Clay had an injection of contrast into the joint before the MRI or not, but most papers suggest that alone will increase sensitivity well above the numbers you quoted.
Having said that, I agree with the general point. MRI isn't perfect, and any time a pitcher has to leave a game with medial elbow pain/stiffness, even if the MRI only suggests muscle/tendon pathology, its hard to be 100% confident that is the only thing going on until they are back and symptom free for awhile.
7th trip to the DL in 9 years for Buchholz:
http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2015/07/boston_red_sox_clay_buchholz_i.html
That 2013 injury was always somewhat mysterious. I called it an arm issue; to be more precise, it was a shoulder/neck injury.
http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2015/07/boston_red_sox_clay_buchholz_i.html
That 2013 injury was always somewhat mysterious. I called it an arm issue; to be more precise, it was a shoulder/neck injury.
Farrell said it was the flexor "muscle". He didn't use the word "tendon". Maybe he's wrong?
Anyway, I see 4 of them:
1. Carpi Radialis
2. Carpi Ulnaris
3. Pollicis Longus
3. Digitorum Supercalifragilistic
Anyway, I see 4 of them:
1. Carpi Radialis
2. Carpi Ulnaris
3. Pollicis Longus
3. Digitorum Supercalifragilistic
Muscles turn into tendons and attach to bones. If his pain is in the elbow, it's either tendon injury or near the muscle-tendon junction.
There are more than 4 flexor muscles in the forearm, but it doesn't matter a ton which one specifically is injured. Many of them converge into a single common tendon at the elbow, so you can't pick out the particular muscle/tendon injured anyway. Probably just an injury to the "common flexor tendon/myotendinous junction".
They didn't announce a severity (reading between the lines doesn't sound like it's very high grade), but still a broad range of time he could be out. 2 weeks and 8 weeks both possible. It'll be based on symptoms, so we just have to wait and see.
There are more than 4 flexor muscles in the forearm, but it doesn't matter a ton which one specifically is injured. Many of them converge into a single common tendon at the elbow, so you can't pick out the particular muscle/tendon injured anyway. Probably just an injury to the "common flexor tendon/myotendinous junction".
They didn't announce a severity (reading between the lines doesn't sound like it's very high grade), but still a broad range of time he could be out. 2 weeks and 8 weeks both possible. It'll be based on symptoms, so we just have to wait and see.
Lest we forget Brendan Donnelly and his "forearm injury" in 2007, the extent of which he and the Red Sox kept hidden until they were able to replace him at the trade deadline (unfortunately with Gagne).
SOSH thread: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/21355-brendan-donnelly-having-tj-surgery/
SOSH thread: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/21355-brendan-donnelly-having-tj-surgery/
Guys, we have a protocol when one of ours has an ortho style injury. We all sit around and post non-injury related tweets until DRS gets off the beach, or the pool deck, or sailing the Charles, or throwing BP to his kid, or whatever the fuck he's doing and comes in here and charges us all $10 for shit we can read (but not quite understand) on WebMD. It will be 2 sentences of gold with some speculation and a disclaimer so we don't sue him. But its coming, trust me. Sit tight everyone.
It's a flexor....unless.
It's a flexor....unless.
If you must know, I was at the U2 concert last night and I'm going to the Sox game today with my son...PaulinMyrBch said:
Most likely "just" a flexor muscle strain for Buchholz, so likely 5-6 weeks out. There is a lot of confusion in this area because there are so many "at risk" an atomic structures in the same area of the medial elbow (flexor muscle, flexor tendon, UCL), but the reports of his MRI seem encouraging.
What doesn't sound encouraging is that he is going to Birmingham for a second opinion. Clay knows his body and feels that something isn't right. Those trips down south seem to be like a date with the devil sometimes.
And there have been occasions in which the trip to Dr Andrews is simply a confirmation of the original diagnosis and gives peace of mind to the player. Wouldn't even be the first time they've done it with Clay, IIRC.
Yes, I would not read too much into a trip to see Jimmy. It's almost routine operating procedure (no pun intended) to have almost any elbow diagnosis in a picture confirmed with a second opinion, not infrequently in Birmingham.
PaulinMyrBch said:
Definitely. It's cool to have a place where people can just shoot the shit, but it's fantastic that we have a place where people give us the real deal. In DRS we trust--I know I do.
History has shown that Clay is pretty lousy at gauging what his body is telling him, actually. And a second opinion is SOP--nothing to see here unless and until interesting results come from it.HomeRunBaker said:
Abs has gone deeper into the Red Sox options with Clay on the shelf for an unknown amount of time:
http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/teams/al-east/boston-red-sox/what-does-the-injury-to-clay-buchholz-mean-for-the-red-sox/
http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/teams/al-east/boston-red-sox/what-does-the-injury-to-clay-buchholz-mean-for-the-red-sox/
“@leahysean: Clay Buchholz will see Dr. James Andrews for what #RedSox say is ‘peace of mind’ visit http://t.co/7G0zTLugZG http://t.co/IAfEEc2bxY”
2016 and 2017 are team option years ($13M, $13.5M; 245K and 500K buyouts).
Hypothetical...if he ends up needing Tommy John this year and thus loses 2016, do they bother with the options?
Hypothetical...if he ends up needing Tommy John this year and thus loses 2016, do they bother with the options?
Better question...suppose no Tommy John, but a very slow recovery and then re-injury sometime before the season is over. Then what?
Not sure how this works given his age, but these days pitchers who undergo TJ surgery often come back stronger and better than before. Would it be worth taking the chance, and having Clay for 2017 as a Clay that is even better than he is now? Maybe during the rehab they negotiate another, smaller, extension - say 2/20.
Risky on both sides I guess. For the Sox, that Clay does in fact get back to being the good Clay (and even better, really). For Clay, that he ends up with a much below market contract in 2018-19.
I dunno. Kind of interesting.
Risky on both sides I guess. For the Sox, that Clay does in fact get back to being the good Clay (and even better, really). For Clay, that he ends up with a much below market contract in 2018-19.
I dunno. Kind of interesting.
Clay will be 31 in August.
In his previous 5 seasons, he's averaged 23 starts for 145 IP. He made $7.7M last year and is making $12M this year.
If he ends up needing Tommy John, the Sox would essentially be looking at $26.5M for 145 IP if they pick up his options (ie missing 2016 and then getting average Clay health in 2017). He'd be 33 at the end of the options, at which point in theory they could offer him arbitration if he's still of value (if recent history is any indication, they probably wouldn't offer him a competitive multi-year deal at that juncture).
In his previous 5 seasons, he's averaged 23 starts for 145 IP. He made $7.7M last year and is making $12M this year.
If he ends up needing Tommy John, the Sox would essentially be looking at $26.5M for 145 IP if they pick up his options (ie missing 2016 and then getting average Clay health in 2017). He'd be 33 at the end of the options, at which point in theory they could offer him arbitration if he's still of value (if recent history is any indication, they probably wouldn't offer him a competitive multi-year deal at that juncture).
Pitchers do not come back from TJ surgery stronger and better than ever. Show me even one pitcher who has come back from this procedure with an appreciably higher max velocity or better control than their peak.ivanvamp said:
Snod is correct here. While TJ is not the death-knell for careers that shoulder surgery is, it doesn't make pitchers better than their peak. It can get them better than they were immediately pre-injury due to the not-infrequent gradual, attritional nature of the condition, but it doesn't make them bionically a better pitcher. Some of the more recent literature looking at UCL surgery shows that the overall success, while still very high, has probably been overstated in the lay press.Snodgrass'Muff said:
In the notes of the generic MLB.com story this evening, they noted that Buchholz threw from 60 feet today, but is still scheduled to see Dr. Andrews and is nowhere close to throwing off a mound.
Have parents been 'abusing' their kids with having this done to help the overstated perceived success? In Alabama, I covered some high school baseball programs where a few may have been opted in to TJ. Not necessarily to Andrews.DaveRoberts'Shoes said:
Well he called it as a flexor injury, not a UCL, just by watching him during the game. That's pretty strong work.PaulinMyrBch said:
Since we are all just sitting on our hands waiting for him to come back, I'll bite on this.czar said:
I generally agree with you that people think other GMs will be reactive and make decisions based on small samples, which good GMs would not.
However, there is a reason why the Sox could obtain value by trading a pitcher like Clay. The Red Sox are only one front office, and there are 29 more out there. Those other FOs have a diversity of opinions on a guy like Clay. You only make a trade with one - so the Sox wouldn't get his expect value, they'd get the maximum value that any FO pegged him at. For a player with as much variability as Clay, it could well be there are one or two GMs that are really high on him.
All of this trade talk is moot for now, of course.
Platelet rich plasma therapy. You can google it a few places, it's supposed to accelerate the healing of injured tissue.
Platelet rich plasma. They spin your blood down and then reinject just the platelets to stimulate healing.MuzzyField said:
