The unprojectable Clay Buchholz

[Hank Scorpio]

Some very strange BAA and WHIP numbers regarding Clay Buchholz:
 
With the bases empty this season, he's well above league average, posting a 1.12 WHIP (1.27 WHIP for the AL with bases empty) and a .236 BAA (.245 AL).

But once runners get on bases, things turn ugly for Clay. With runners on, Clay posts a 1.30 WHIP (1.27 AL) and a .283 BAA (.251 AL).
 
And it's a flat out horror show if those runners are in scoring position. With RISP, Clay has a .348 BAA and a 1.92 WHIP. In those same situations, the AL averages a .242 BAA and a 1.34 WHIP.
 
2014 tells a nearly identical story:
 
Bases Empty:
Clay: .236 / 1.24
AL: .246 / 1.29
 
Runners on:
Clay: .314 / 1.57
AL: .253 / 1.27
 
RISP
Clay: .352 / 1.95
AL: .243 / 1.33
 
I mean, we already knew about the "squirrels", but I wonder if this is something "fixable" with his approach, as good as he's been recently. And Clay never followed anything close to this pattern until 2014. Before that, he was pretty consistent across these three situational splits. What changed?
 
Side Tangent:
 
I actually have the same numbers for each SP in front of me in a spread sheet, and for the most part, all of the Sox other starting pitchers follow a similar trend, where Miley, Kelly and Porcello are below average with the bases empty, but not horrifically so. But once runners get on base, they become much worse than league average, and with runners in scoring position they're just flat out terrible. Exceptions are Masterson (who is universally terrible) and Rodriguez (who gets worse with runners on, but better if those runners are in scoring position.... maybe holding runners on first is causing him issues, or just too small a sample size?).
 
Could be a rotation-wide coaching issue with regards to approach with runners on, or pitching from the stretch.

 

[Rasputin]

If they're buying, they need to buy a lot. A mid rotation starter or better plus a reliever at least as good as Tazawa, and maybe a catcher. I think between Holt and Nava coming back they can cobble together production at 1B. And as someone said, who's selling if the Sox are buying?

They really don't.

They need two starters who can be mediocre through six innings every night and I'm pretty sure they have one in either Johnson or Owens.

They need a lefty reliever who doesn't completely suck.

The joyous thing is, if Owens or Johnson flame out as a starter, there's a decent chance they can be the reliever we need.

 

[threecy]

Durability strikes again.
 
Buchholz leaves tonight's game with an apparent elbow injury.

 

[luckysox]

Mother thumper . Unreal.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

It's only an elbow injury. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[AimingForYoko]

God forbid we be able to trade high.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Suckerpunch. He's been great this season outside of a couple bad outings in April. 

 

[BoredViewer]

Should've traded him when we had the chance.

 

[uncannymanny]

If only they'd looked at the clubhouse calendar and seen that today was the day his elbow would give out.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

What conspiratorial theory will Felger come up with for this?

That he's the projectable Clay Buchholz?

 

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

I'm never one to be optimistic about this kind of stuff, but I bet his MRI comes back fine - he just looked off all night, I'm hoping it really is just "stiffness" instead of anything structural. That will probably result in a 15-day DL stint which will take them right up to the trade deadline and screw them from that standpoint, so they have that going for them, which is nice...

 

[joe dokes]

God forbid we be able to trade high.

 

Should've traded him when we had the chance.

 
 
Yeah. Because every team looking at such a trade would be entirely unaware of the fact that Buchholz has never missed fewer than 4 starts in a season -- and those were the "healthy" seasons.  Shh.....maybe they didn;t see last night's game, either.

 

[dcmissle]

 
 
 
Yeah. Because every team looking at such a trade would be entirely unaware of the fact that Buchholz has never missed fewer than 4 starts in a season -- and those were the "healthy" seasons.  Shh.....maybe they didn;t see last night's game, either.

And they never ask for medicals before sending substantial assets in return.

When did it become an article of faith that the other teams in MLB, much less contending teams, are run by fools? That seems to be a powerful current running across threads.

 

[luckysox]

I hope Doctor Dave Robert's Shoes Orthopeadic Surgeon Who Knows stuff is right. Man, he was pitching quite well there for a bit, and the Buch consistency is something we'll miss, even if it is just for 2 or 3 turns through. Fact is, he was the guy we'd all feel comfortable with when starting right now (I guess that's a stopper in a season like this) and the repalcement options are not terribly inspiring. This was a big "oomph" to the stomach. 
 
 

 

[AimingForYoko]

I'm never one to be optimistic about this kind of stuff, but I bet his MRI comes back fine - he just looked off all night, I'm hoping it really is just "stiffness" instead of anything structural. That will probably result in a 15-day DL stint which will take them right up to the trade deadline and screw them from that standpoint, so they have that going for them, which is nice...

I choose to believe you because it's better than the alternative. Clay will be fine.

 

[JesusQuintana]

And they never ask for medicals before sending substantial assets in return.

When did it become an article of faith that the other teams in MLB, much less contending teams, are run by fools? That seems to be a powerful current running across threads.

 
Agree completely.  This is strange - like the mentality that the Sox should trade Buchholz after his "next great start."  As if other teams don't know that he's been inconsistent in the past and we are somehow in on a secret.

 

[DanoooME]

I'm hoping it's not serious as well, but let's say he had to get TJ'ed, would they pick up his 2016 option at the end of the season?  He's probably not going to be back until at least August next season if he got TJ, so they're paying him $13.5M to get healthy.  Do they decline the option and hope to re-sign him to a cheaper 2 to 3 year deal, which would be a gamble, since he could sign with anyone?
 
Let's hope these questions don't have to be answered.

 

[NDame616]

I'm hoping it's not serious as well, but let's say he had to get TJ'ed, would they pick up his 2016 option at the end of the season?  He's probably not going to be back until at least August next season if he got TJ, so they're paying him $13.5M to get healthy.  Do they decline the option and hope to re-sign him to a cheaper 2 to 3 year deal, which would be a gamble, since he could sign with anyone?
 
Let's hope these questions don't have to be answered.

 
Why would they pick up the option and pay a guy $13M to only have him MAYBE return to the majors in August or September? Paying him $13M all year, knowing he would potentially start in August, would be something like a $36M/year prorated contract.
 
If he needs TJ, they'd probably sign him to a 2 year deal where the first year he gets like $1M and the second year he gets a heavily incentivisized contract worth up to the $13M he would've had

 

[uncannymanny]

Considering there's two options, picking it up to let him rehab would put them in Porcello money on that final year.

 

[NDame616]

Considering there's two options, picking it up to let him rehab would put them in Porcello money on that final year.

 
 
In 2016 he wouldn't be worth $13M if he has TJ surgery and starts again in August. If, say, Felix Hernandez or Kershaw or someone had the same contractual situation, MAYBE you pick it up, hope for a quick rehab then hope you get a solid 3 months out of him. Nothing about Buchholz screams "speedy recovery"
In 2017, if he progresses as you'd hope, he wouldn't be worth $13M coming back from his first full season after TJ.
 
You don't pick up the first option unless you also want to pick up the second option. You think the Red Sox should sign him to essentially a 2/26.5M deal after he gets TJ?

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Should've traded him when we had the chance.

 
He has thrown over 100 innings in half a season and so you knew his arm was about to fall off.
 
I wouldn't pick up his option even if he doesn't need TJ surgery.  I would rather invest that money in one of the better free agent starters, a pitcher who has a history of throwing 200 quality innings each year without breaking down.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

So the next Rick Porcello? Who cost $19.5m? $13m is basically filler FA for pitchers you expect to start in the rotation.

 

[czar]

I presume that if Buchholz DOES undergo TJS (absolute worst case), the Sox would decline the options but would be open to restructuring his deal such that they'd save some $$$ when he's hurt and he'd get a few more $ than he would on a rehab contract on the open market. Ex, maybe they'd give him something like 3/28ish for 2016-2018 or have escalators based on IP upon return.
 
But while we fear the worst -- and naturally want to speculate what that means -- that hasn't been confirmed. Additionally, my guess is even if they do find a UCL tear, they'd try to rehab it for a month or two unless it's a full tear. 2016 would be essentially toast if he were to have surgery next week, and while 12 months is commonly cited for pitchers returning from TJS, it's become clear that A) that's a bare minimum and B) it takes longer to regain control/crispness of stuff.

 

[uncannymanny]

 
 
In 2016 he wouldn't be worth $13M if he has TJ surgery and starts again in August. If, say, Felix Hernandez or Kershaw or someone had the same contractual situation, MAYBE you pick it up, hope for a quick rehab then hope you get a solid 3 months out of him. Nothing about Buchholz screams "speedy recovery"
In 2017, if he progresses as you'd hope, he wouldn't be worth $13M coming back from his first full season after TJ.
 
You don't pick up the first option unless you also want to pick up the second option. You think the Red Sox should sign him to essentially a 2/26.5M deal after he gets TJ?

Yes, the point was that in 2017 he'd be on a 1/26 deal if you pick up the options. Plenty of guys are coming back and hitting the ground running after TJS. I don't know if you do that with Buchholz; it would require more knowledge of the medicals than any of us are going to have, but the Red Sox certainly aren't above paying a premium on a short deal if they think they'll get value. Him not being worth 13 mill in 2017 is complete speculation as well. I'd take Fernandez right now for 13.

 

[dcmissle]

So we are fearing the worst from tightness, why? Because it's Clay's elbow, and it feels good to be annoyed with him?

The problem per se was never Clay. It was the belief, shared widely, that he and Masterson and Porcello would sufficiently address SP. The cherry on the sundae may have been the Porcello extension.

So in one breath -- elite SP doesn't matter so much anymore (we're gonna slug our way to the top, wiping out a decade of bad memories of 1970s Red Sox baseball) yet Porcello's was a fine deal because that's the going rate for middle of the rotation pitching. A few things don't compute and are difficult to square with each other.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

 
He has thrown over 100 innings in half a season and so you knew his arm was about to fall off.
 
I wouldn't pick up his option even if he doesn't need TJ surgery.  I would rather invest that money in one of the better free agent starters, a pitcher who has a history of throwing 200 quality innings each year without breaking down.

 
He's only been shut down or put on the DL once because of arm issues once. He was shut down back in 2007 due to shoulder weakness. He's come pretty close to pitching 200 innings a few times. He reached 189.1 in 2012(29 starts), 173.2 in 2012(28 starts) and 170.1 in 2014(28 starts). 
 
Here is a list of the starting pitchers that will be free agents after this season who have pitched 200 or more innings in the past three seasons. Their ages in 2016 are in parentheses. The list is from mlbtraderumors.com
 
Knowing that the Sox don't like to sign free agent pitchers of a certain age to long term deals, which pitchers on the list would fit your criteria? And what are quality innings and what is the ratio of quality innings to bad innings that's acceptable? 

Mark Buehrle (37) - 2014, 2013, 2012
A.J. Burnett (39) - 2014, 2012
Trevor Cahill (28) – $13MM club option with a $300K buyout - 2012
Bartolo Colon (43) - 2014
Johnny Cueto (30) - 2014, 2012
R.A. Dickey (41) – $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout - 2014, 2013, 2012
Doug Fister (32) - 2013
Yovani Gallardo (30) - 2012
Zack Greinke (32) – can opt out of remaining three years/$71MM - 2014, 2012
Jeremy Guthrie (37) – $10MM mutual option with a $3.2MM buyout - 2014, 2013
Aaron Harang (38) - 2014
Hisashi Iwakuma (35) - 2013
Ian Kennedy (31) - 2014, 2012
Mat Latos (28) - 2013, 2012
Mike Leake (28) - 2014
Cliff Lee (37) – $27.5MM club/vesting option with a $12.5MM buyout - 2013, 2012
Kyle Lohse (37) - 2012
Justin Masterson (31) - 2012
David Price (30) - 2014, 2012
Jeff Samardzija (31) - 2014, 2013
Jordan Zimmermann (30) - 2013

 

[dcmissle]

Is Jordan Zimmermann not on that list because he comes up 5 innings shy of 600 over the last 3 complete seasons? Or because he won't sign here?

 

[uncannymanny]

I was going to try to dig up some similar numbers abs. It seems like there's this fallacy that gets presented whenever anyone talks about Buchholz that the majority of pitchers throw over 200 innings a year and that's just ridiculous. There were only around 35 last season alone, not even accounting for multiyear spans. That's around 1 per team. There's a reason why guys who throw 200 innings consistently, even with average to slightly below average numbers are incredibly valuable.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

So we are fearing the worst from tightness, why? Because it's Clay's elbow, and it feels good to be annoyed with him?

 

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Is Jordan Zimmermann not on that list because he comes up 5 innings shy of 600 over the last 3 complete seasons? Or because he won't sign here?

Zimmermann isn't on the list because I missed his IP total for 2013. I'll add him.
 
 

I was going to try to dig up some similar numbers abs. It seems like there's this fallacy that gets presented whenever anyone talks about Buchholz that the majority of pitchers throw over 200 innings a year and that's just ridiculous. There were only around 35 last season alone, not even accounting for multiyear spans. That's around 1 per team. There's a reason why guys who throw 200 innings consistently, even with average to slightly below average numbers are incredibly valuable.

In 2014 there were 34 with 200 IP. 2013 there were 36. In 2012 there were 31.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Looks like CB is going to the DL and there is no ligament damage per Bradford. Hopefully, it's just the 15 day.
 



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Rob Bradford‏@bradfo

Buchholz headed to DL. No ligament damage

 

[foulkehampshire]

Looks like CB is going to the DL and there is no ligament damage per Bradford. Hopefully, it's just the 15 day.
 



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Rob Bradford‏@bradfo

Buchholz headed to DL. No ligament damage

 
Godspeed, Clay. Hoping he returns undiminished and fresh. ALA Pedro midseason-DL. 

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

"Lets not go sucking each others dicks just yet" - The Wolf
 
https://twitter.com/JMastrodonato/status/619963600824889345

 

[Sprowl]

So we are fearing the worst from tightness, why? Because it's Clay's elbow, and it feels good to be annoyed with him?

 
Because elbow tightness, forearm strain, or anything implicating the tendons in this joint are the well-known opening notes of the 15-month melancholy dirge of Tommy John.
 
We fear the worse because Clay 2015 was reaching levels of command comparable to 2013.1, 2009.2 and Clay 2011.all, when he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. Painting the edges, especially for called third strikes, is a signature of Buchholz at his peak, and he can go seasons and multiple injuries between peaks. To be struck down (if you'll forgive the melodrama) just as he was reaching peak performance and a resurgent Red Sox team needed an ace, would be a tragic event for a team that doesn't want to be rebuilding. It's like losing Ellsbury to shoulder injury in 2012, and never getting that peak performance back.
 
Ever.
 
 
(ominous music. fade to black.)

 

[Sprowl]

Looks like CB is going to the DL and there is no ligament damage per Bradford. Hopefully, it's just the 15 day.
 



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Rob Bradford‏@bradfo

Buchholz headed to DL. No ligament damage

 
Ligaments? Aren't tendons what we worry about in the elbow?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I'll take this as good news.  Maybe we got lucky and the ASB is perfectly timed, Clay only misses a start or two and returns refreshed and still dominant.  
 
Might as well hope.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

 
Ligaments? Aren't tendons what we worry about in the elbow?

TJ is UCL (ligament).

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Agree no ligament is much better news then 15 day DL is bad. Good news overall.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

https://twitter.com/JMastrodonato/status/619968047177011200

 

[radsoxfan]

 
Ligaments? Aren't tendons what we worry about in the elbow?

 
In the elbow, tendons are what we hope for.  Ligaments (UCL specifically) are what we fear. 

 

[czar]

FWIW, found 5 pitchers with "flexor strains" this season (very cursory glance).
 
Jason Vargas, missed ~6 weeks
Matt Cain, missed ~12 weeks
Doug Fister, missed ~3-4 weeks
Joe Nathan, missed ~3-4 weeks, re-injured elbow in AAA, required TJS
Cliff Lee, well, we all know how he has done the last few years.

 

[uncannymanny]

Despite making him a wimp in the eyes of some, not pitching through this could save him weeks of DL time.

 

[barbed wire Bob]

A quick Google search found this so take it fwiw.

The tendon on the inner side of the elbow is the Flexor Tendon. This is major attachment for the muscles in the forearm and wrist that power wrist and finger bending (“flexion”) and rotation of the hand into a palm down position (“pronation”). These muscles are clearly important in throwing a ball, from gripping the ball to putting spin on a breaking pitch. With frequent throwing, this tendon can become overloaded. This leads to inflammation of the tendon (“tendonitis”) and sometimes degeneration of the tendon. In more chronic or severe cases, the tendon may partially tear little by little. Rarely, the tendon may tear completely. Fortunately, most of the time these flexor tendon injuries will respond well to rest and time, but sometimes they don’t. In that case, surgery to remove degenerated tendon tissue and repair of the tendon is necessary. Though infrequently needed, the results are good, and the recovery is much faster than after UCL reconstruction.

http://www.throwinginjuries.com/elbow/flexor-tendon/

All in all it sounds like good news.

 

[Nite Vizhun UV]

It seems like good news, but this is Clay Buchholz we're talking about. When has he ever been known to come back from any ailment pitching as well as he was before the injury? Clay has a track record of pitching poorly for an extended period after return from injury.

 

[uncannymanny]

It seems like good news, but this is Clay Buchholz we're talking about. When has he ever been known to come back from any ailment pitching as well as he was before the injury? Clay has a track record of pitching poorly for an extended period after return from injury.

Like 2013 when he came back and put up 24 innings to close out the year, giving up 7ER?

 

[Sprowl]

TJ is UCL (ligament).

In the elbow, tendons are what we hope for.  Ligaments (UCL specifically) are what we fear.

Right you are.

 

[fineyoungarm]

Like 2013 when he came back and put up 24 innings to close out the year, giving up 7ER?

Despite this, if the injury is as insignificant as advertised, is not his greatest value as a starter that can dazzle for 5 to 10 game stretches?  If so, he could get some long suffering (or not) team to the promised land. Now.
 
So, you are the GM of, say, the Astros, etc. The good Clay could help win it all. The spoils go to the bold. Trade for him and pay a stiff price.
 
OTOH, as GM of the Red Sox don't you conclude that this guy is never going to anchor your staff? He's been around MLB for almost a decade, so you know what you have, and the chances that several terrific outings by him next year will put this team into contention are slim.
 
Trade him for for a promising starter and (or?) bullpen help, if some other GM has the daring to take on Buchholz in the attempt to win it all in 2015? Yes.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

He's only been shut down or put on the DL once because of arm issues once. He was shut down back in 2007 due to shoulder weakness. He's come pretty close to pitching 200 innings a few times. He reached 189.1 in 2012(29 starts), 173.2 in 2012(28 starts) and 170.1 in 2014(28 starts).
 

 
 
He had an arm issue in 2013, though.  I've lost track of his other DL stints, but according to Scott Lauber, Buchholz "has been relegated to the disabled list in each of the past five seasons. He has never made 30 starts, never logged 200 innings, never been reliable enough to lead a rotation for an entire season. Now, for the first time in his injury-ravaged career, he’s dealing with discomfort in his elbow."
https://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/07/lauber_clay_buchholz_injury_a_bad_sign_for_red_sox
 
I want the usual suspects: I wanted Scherzer in the off-season, and I want Price or Zimmerman in free agency.  I'm not sure about Cueto at this time.   I like Samardzija, and believe he is better than Buchholz.
 
The Red Sox don't believe in signing older pitchers to massive contracts, and so they probably won't sign any of these guys.  But I'm not sure if that is a wise approach.  They took that approach this season, and look what happened to the starting staff.  If the Yankees took that approach in 2009, and did not sign Sabathia, for example, they never win the World Series.  To sign that dominant starter, the organization pays out a lot of bad money at the back end of the contract.  But such pitchers are so valuable at the front end that it may be worth it.  

 

[czar]

 
 
He had an arm issue in 2013, though.  I've lost track of his other DL stints, but according to Scott Lauber, Buchholz "has been relegated to the disabled list in each of the past five seasons. He has never made 30 starts, never logged 200 innings, never been reliable enough to lead a rotation for an entire season. Now, for the first time in his injury-ravaged career, he’s dealing with discomfort in his elbow."
https://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/07/lauber_clay_buchholz_injury_a_bad_sign_for_red_sox
 
I want the usual suspects: I wanted Scherzer in the off-season, and I want Price or Zimmerman in free agency.  I'm not sure about Cueto at this time.   I like Samardzija, and believe he is better than Buchholz.
 
The Red Sox don't believe in signing older pitchers to massive contracts, and so they probably won't sign any of these guys.  But I'm not sure if that is a wise approach.  They took that approach this season, and look what happened to the starting staff.  If the Yankees took that approach in 2009, and did not sign Sabathia, for example, they never win the World Series.  To sign that dominant starter, the organization pays out a lot of bad money at the back end of the contract.  But such pitchers are so valuable at the front end that it may be worth it.  

 
Because Clay Buchholz making $12m guaranteed for 2015 precluded the Sox from paying 7/$210m for Max Scherzer?
 
Aside from the whole "let's sell high before anyone figures anything out!" the idea that the Red Sox FO decided Clay Buchholz was this magical "ace" and therefore they should not go after another top tier starter is the second most ludicrous notion in this thread.
 
The team has clearly decided that paying big money or giving up their young assets (Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, etc.) for pitchers on the wrong side of 30 is not something they are interested in doing. I mean, hell, they spent more than 5x what Buchholz is guaranteed to extend another pitcher before he threw a pitch in Boston because his age/peripherals fit what they wanted. Why people think that Buchholz's existence is the roadblock to the Sox getting an "ace" when the team laid out only $2m less in guaranteed money to Justin Masterson is beyond me.
 
You can certainly argue whether or not the plan to load up on seemingly mid-rotation arms (albeit young with upside) was a good one... but Clay Buchholz is not the reason Max Scherzer is not here, he is not the reason Cole Hamels is not here, he is not the reason Jon Lester is not here, and he will not be the reason why Price/Zimmerman/Cueto/Samardzija won't be here if prices go outside of what the Sox FO feels comfortable with.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Its good news if the UCL is really in good shape and its "just" the flexor -tendon.  However, the sensitivity of the MRI in detecting UCL tears is only 57% which means it has a 43% false negative rate (not a Dr but I have read this elsewhere as well).  There are many cases where a pitcher is first diagnosed with a flexor-tendon strain and only later found to need TJ surgery as a result of a ucl tear that was not detected in the initial exam.   There are many more where a flexor-tendon strain occurs w/o a UCL problem.  
 
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8129106