The premature re-signing Lester thread
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I think there's another thread on this topic.
I think it's a thread I hastened the death of, but hey, it's still there.
I think it's a thread I hastened the death of, but hey, it's still there.
Savin Hillbilly said:
Which leads back to if you really want to retain a player, you don't let him reach free agency.
Yeah, it seems like that quote could easily have been lost in translation. It is not hard to imagine that Ramirez and Lester were in totally separate cliques on an A Ball team, and that's all he meant by it. It's probably just an uncharacteristically inapt phrasing that I bet he wishes he had backE5 Yaz said:
Teams and agents act in their own best interest. In the long run, negotiating in good faith works in their best interest because few things are more important than reputation. I'm not saying there aren't exceptions because people do dumb things, but if you do enough dumb things you lose your job/clients. So for the most part the stories of teams and agents playing deceitful negotiating games are just that ... stories.SoxFanForsyth said:
phenweigh said:
Check this out:
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7008129/new-york-yankees-faked-carl-crawford-interest-cost-boston-red-sox
Why is it that when the Yankees say they won't enter the bidding on big free agents, no one believes them ... but when they say long after the fact that they say they were only feigning interest in a free agent who signs elsewhere, they suddenly become believable?
https://twitter.com/jared_carrabis/status/539161213939494912
My personal opinion, 0% chance that Lester signs anywhere but Boston.
The Sox have the huge need, and there is no way they drop almost 200mm on Hanley and Sandoval and then get outbid on Lester.
By this time next week, we will all be talking about Lester leading the staff, and how a Lester - Shark - Latos (for Cespedes) lines up.
My personal opinion, 0% chance that Lester signs anywhere but Boston.
The Sox have the huge need, and there is no way they drop almost 200mm on Hanley and Sandoval and then get outbid on Lester.
By this time next week, we will all be talking about Lester leading the staff, and how a Lester - Shark - Latos (for Cespedes) lines up.
The funny thing about this is that you could replace "Crawford" with "Ellsbury" in this quote and it would be almost the exact same thing.mBiferi said:
If you want Lester I think it's time to get your mind around a 7 year deal for ~$168,000,000. That's what the Levinson brothers are shopping for, They have the 6 year, $135,000,000 deal from the Sox in hand and probably a little bit better deal in hand from the Cubs. The Cardinals said no thanks but will someone else offer the 7 year deal? I think a team will make the offer and the Sox will have the opportunity to match it. Ultimately, I don't think they will match a 7 year offer and Lester will go elsewhere.
7/168??? No way. 6/148 will probably get it done. I've heard the Sox offered 6/145, but a Greinke type deal is what Lester will get.Montana Fan said:
7/168 is what Scherzer will get, not Lester.
I think they will get him for something around Marrero, Webster, and JohnsonMartyBarrettMVP said:
If that's the case, would you rather have Scherzer or Lester?
Edit: if Scherzer is only 1 year and $20M more than Lester (+ the draft pick), would you rather add him?
Edit: if Scherzer is only 1 year and $20M more than Lester (+ the draft pick), would you rather add him?
OCD SS said:
Seriously. I've never understood why everyone assumes that Scherzer is worth so much more than Lester.
Lester and it's not close.OCD SS said:
Don't want to go 7 years on a pitcher, Sox have all the familiarity in the world with Lester, know his medicals, etc, AL east proven.
I said earlier, "I'm not saying there aren't exceptions". I stand by my opinion that most of the conspiratorial stories are not true. Some posters seem to believe them all.mBiferi said:
MakMan44 said:
Lester's coming off a just barely better year, after two preceding years in which it wasn't particularly close.
Scherzer was a later bloomer, but since hitting his peak three years ago he has been remarkably consistent at a very high level, and Lester, over the same period, hasn't.
The only reasons why it isn't a slam-dunk to give Scherzer a bigger contract are (a) Lester is a LHP, and (b) Scherzer's signature pitch is a notorious elbow-shredder, while there's nothing similarly red-flaggish about Lester's repertoire.
Savin Hillbilly said:
I don't think anyone's saying that it's unreasonable to think that Scherzer is the better pitcher right now. But the idea that Scherzer will get something like 7/168 while Lester shouldn't get more than 6/132 doesn't seem reasonable. I think that they're closer than many people think.
glennhoffmania said:
6 years at 22M per season and 7 years at 24M per season aren't that far off, are they? 14% longer (smallest possible increase) and 8% higher AAV.
If it's not unreasonable to say Scherzer is better, those contracts would seem reasonable to me.
On the other hand, an extra year and $2m per seems like a reasonable estimate of Boras' value as an agent.MakMan44 said:
radsoxfan said:
Break it down however you want, it still comes down to an extra $36m guaranteed. That's not insignificant in my opinion.
kieckeredinthehead said:
Well that's a different question. If we're talking about the relative values of the players, I don't think there is a $35m-$40m gap.
glennhoffmania said:
If the contracts were the same length, I'd agree 36M extra is probably too much compared to their on-field values. But if you're willing to say Scherzer is a bit better and is going to get an extra year (again, the smallest possible incremental increase), there is 22M+ of the difference right there.
I suppose you could say Scherzer should get a smaller AAV than Lester on a longer deal to make it just a 10M or so difference overall, but that's rarely how these FA contracts work out.
radsoxfan said:
I guess this can be pretty simple. Both of those deals are available to you. You have to pick one. Which do you choose? To me it's a no brainer. I wouldn't be surprised if either of them outperformed the other over the next six or seven years. Taking into account past performance, health, playoff performance, handedness, and home park I'd take Lester every time for a year less and $36m less.
glennhoffmania said:
I'd take Lester too given that choice. I'd also try like hell to keep Scherzer's deal to 6 years if at all possible.
The problem is that if Scherzer's small (possible) superiority plus the Boras factor is going to get him an extra year, you're pretty much dealing with a 20-30M difference in the total contracts. I agree that's not very palatable, but it also wouldn't surprise me if thats how the numbers end up.
I put it through the jimbobim scat translator:
Sure it's possible. However, positive vibes, man. Lefty Lester, "The Roadblock," as ESPN writer Buster Olney termed him in his Insider™ piece, will be stationed back in Fenway tomorrow, I believe. Last Monday was pretty awesome (referring to adding Hanley & Panda on the same day).
Sure it's possible. However, positive vibes, man. Lefty Lester, "The Roadblock," as ESPN writer Buster Olney termed him in his Insider™ piece, will be stationed back in Fenway tomorrow, I believe. Last Monday was pretty awesome (referring to adding Hanley & Panda on the same day).
Much being reported the entire pitching market is waiting on Lester. I would hope he signs in the next couple of days,if for no other reason than to set the market rates so things can actually get done at the Winter Meetings.
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