The premature re-signing Lester thread

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Harry Hooper

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HomeRunBaker said:
Lester has two teams that want him with both sides taking it personally if they lose him to the other. This is precisely why players take to free agency. It's Lester's camps dream scenario as the latest bump is to $145m while a 3rd team is still interested. He shoudln't sign until the losing parties wave the white flag and give up.
 
Still time for the Yanks to toss in an additional year and $30 million.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Hank Scorpio said:
Situation sucks. It's not hard to imagine how LL feels over this, considering I loathe the Cubs myself. Some of the worst people I know are Cub fans, and in all honesty, I came to despise how they poached our GM and then made a huge stink over the compensation issue. F them.
 
Some of the best people I know are Yankee fans. SSS, ya know?
 

Hank Scorpio

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P'tucket said:
If this has anything to do with their bidding strategy, the whole lot of them should be canned.

 
 
Would it really surprise you if LL gave Ben a direct order that under no circumstances is Theo to sign Jon Lester?
 
mr_smith02 said:
I agree, at what point do you hamstring the team down the line? I think by continuing to add years, in combination with such a steep salary, the organization moves to hurting itself in the long haul.
 
This is assuming the seventh year is at a lower AAV. There's going to be a point where a seventh year starts and stops making sense.
 
For instance, if Jon Lester was willing to accept both 6/144 and 7/144 offers, the seven year deal would be a better bargain. Obviously, unless it's a pride thing, Lester would prefer 6/144. Keeping the AAV the same, a seventh year added to the 6/144 deal would be 6/168. If, on the other hand, Lester was more than happy with the AAV, but insisted on a seventh year, in between 7/144 and 7/168, there would be a point where they might agree.
 
If you're willing to go 6/144 on Lester, but no more on the $24M AAV, what's your breaking point on a seventh year? 7/158 or so?
 

geoduck no quahog

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Too much anger. There are at least 4 team besides the Sox that are interested: Cubs, Cardinals, Giants and Yankees (yes...they have to be waiting in the wings). Maybe the Braves.
 
Why on earth would anyone with any brains settle for what your former team offers without investigating how high each other team will go? Maybe the Red Sox are not ultimately the highest bidder, but he chooses Boston (doubtful). Maybe he gives Boston one more shot to beat the high bid (more likely). Maybe he chooses to pitch in the NL and watch his stats improve. Maybe a team swoops in at the last minute and blows everyone out of the water.
 
The Player's Association has made it clear that they're not in favor of FA's taking lower bids.
 
What's also interesting to me is how Boras must be feeling right now. He must be ecstatic. If Lester goes north of $145M, what do you think Scherzer's going to get? Certainly most of the Lester losers will be in on Max...plus probably a couple more teams. 
 

lxt

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Hank Scorpio said:
 
Would it really surprise you if LL gave Ben a direct order that under no circumstances is Theo to sign Jon Lester?
 
 
This is assuming the seventh year is at a lower AAV. There's going to be a point where a seventh year starts and stops making sense.
 
For instance, if Jon Lester was willing to accept both 6/144 and 7/144 offers, the seven year deal would be a better bargain. Obviously, unless it's a pride thing, Lester would prefer 6/144. Keeping the AAV the same, a seventh year added to the 6/144 deal would be 6/168. If, on the other hand, Lester was more than happy with the AAV, but insisted on a seventh year, in between 7/144 and 7/168, there would be a point where they might agree.
 
If you're willing to go 6/144 on Lester, but no more on the $24M AAV, what's your breaking point on a seventh year? 7/158 or so?
I've suggested something that gives him his numbers, limits impact on AAV and is team acceptable in a previous posting (It seems like so long ago).
 
Offer 7 year deal with Mutual Options in year 6 & 7 ($5 if Sox turn down option in year 6, $3 year 7 - Lester turns down option he gets nothing) and limited no trade clause
Year 1 -3 $25 ... No Trade
Year 4 - 5 $20 ... Limited trade - details TBD
Year 6 & 7 $15 guaranteed $5 incentives - Limited trade ... Total contract $145 guaranteed ... with $10 in incentives ... 7/$155
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Hank Scorpio said:
 
Would it really surprise you if LL gave Ben a direct order that under no circumstances is Theo to sign Jon Lester?
 
 
 
Yes.  Larry Lucchino may be many things but as much as people here want to believe it, he isn't stupid.  That would be stupid.  Jon Lester has a value to the Red Sox and it would be bad business for them to let personal issues (perceived or otherwise) cause them to exceed that number.  
 
 

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If Lester ends up turning down something like 6/145, you really have to wonder about his whole "I'd take less to stay in Boston" thing from last Spring Training, as well. I definitely think ownership bungled that beyond comprehension, but Lester may be more Damon/99% of other athletes/people than we fantasized. If that's the case, I won't hesitate in hating his guts if he signs elsewhere. Boston is better, Jonny Boy.
 
If he comes back, he's the best, though. Love ya, Jon Jon.
 

EvilEmpire

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That's ridiculous. Maybe one of the things Lester valued in addition to money was loyalty from the organization he played for. After being low-balled and traded to Oakland, maybe that rankles a bit. Who knows? I doubt it will only be money that influences his decision, but I don't know how anyone outside of his family and maybe closest friends know everything else he is valuing and how much.
 

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phenweigh

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EvilEmpire said:
That's ridiculous. Maybe one of the things Lester valued in addition to money was loyalty from the organization he played for. After being low-balled and traded to Oakland, maybe that rankles a bit. Who knows? I doubt it will only be money that influences his decision, but I don't know how anyone outside of his family and maybe closest friends know everything else he is valuing and how much.
Maybe even Jon is not exactly sure of his non-monetary evaluations until he talks to all the bidders.  Sure, it means we have to wait, but SoSH is probably not high on his list of priorities.
 

JimD

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In retrospect - I wish that the Sox did have a 'higher dollars for shorter years' philosophy in action last spring and had offered Lester the (presumed) current offer of $23-24 million per year but over four years. Maybe if they had started at 4/$80 they could have landed there, possibly with a fifth year as an option year.
 

phenweigh

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JimD said:
In retrospect - I wish that the Sox did have a 'higher dollars for shorter years' philosophy in action last spring and had offered Lester the (presumed) current offer of $23-24 million per year but over four years. Maybe if they had started at 4/$80 they could have landed there, possibly with a fifth year as an option year.
I doubt it.  My guess is that what Lester (and his agents) found ridiculous about the spring offer was the length.  He's been clear, and I take him at his word, that he was willing to take a home town discount and that money is not what makes him tick.  I thus infer that it is length of contract that is important to him.  This fits with the rumors that he is now seeking a 7 year deal.  And there is the rub.   
 

joe dokes

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All the pysychoanalysis -- "LL wont let him to to Theo"; "Lester may be considering Sox lack of loyalty." "Theo wants to stick it up LL's ass." Please stop.
 
The guy is about to sign what may be his last major league contract. At 31, he is about to make one of the biggest decisions in his life he will ever make. Does there really have to be some nefarious angle to wanting to take a week or 2  to fully consider ALL his options before making the decision? 
 

TheoShmeo

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joe dokes said:
All the pysychoanalysis -- "LL wont let him to to Theo"; "Lester may be considering Sox lack of loyalty." "Theo wants to stick it up LL's ass." Please stop.
 
The guy is about to sign what may be his last major league contract. At 31, he is about to make one of the biggest decisions in his life he will ever make. Does there really have to be some nefarious angle to wanting to take a week or 2  to fully consider ALL his options before making the decision? 
No, there doesn't.  Taking time makes sense.
 
But Lester invited this kind of stuff into the equation.
 
He said he'd take a home town discount.  He said comfort was really important to him.  He said he was very comfortable in Boston as it was all that he knew other than his short stay in Oakland. He said he isn't about the last dollar.  No one forced him to say any of those things.  The logical implication from what Jon has said is that if Boston is in the zone, he would go there.
 
But we cannot ignore that the he Sox -- if we are to believe the reports and assume that there are no mitigating factors that we are unaware of -- low balled him this past Spring and seemingly botched the negotiations.
 
That context is part of the overall picture when we recall Jon's statements, some of which occurred after last Spring.
 
My point is that the player in this case opened the door to some of the psychobabble.  When that happens, it's not like a Papelbon situation when compensation, and not sentiment, is all that matters.
 
In short, it's hard to ignore the softer factors -- especially your second one about loyality -- in the context of what Jon Lester might do.  I agree that the LL/Theo stuff is probably irrelevant but, then again, LL and Theo are people too, and it's not at all beyond the pale that their own past might play a role in how much money they respectively offer and what they might say to the player to entice him.   
 

HomeRunBaker

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joe dokes said:
All the pysychoanalysis -- "LL wont let him to to Theo"; "Lester may be considering Sox lack of loyalty." "Theo wants to stick it up LL's ass." Please stop.
 
The guy is about to sign what may be his last major league contract. At 31, he is about to make one of the biggest decisions in his life he will ever make. Does there really have to be some nefarious angle to wanting to take a week or 2  to fully consider ALL his options before making the decision? 
The only angle is his team creating a bidding war between multiple teams. We can feel that Lester's team is unaware or blind to the animosity between Theo and the Red Sox ownership group however in doing so that's an ignorant slap in the face to Lester's team. Of course they are looking to take advantage of every angle and opportunity to acquire the best deal for their client.....that's their job.
 

BeantownIdaho

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I was hoping to wake up to a "Sox Agree with Lester" title somewhere....but nope. I think I have emotionally moved past this and I hope some of you will a well. Now...on to Mad Max !
 

ehaz

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If Lester doesn't sign, would you try for Scherzer?  And for how many more dollars?
 

snowmanny

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TheoShmeo said:
No, there doesn't.  Taking time makes sense.
 
But Lester invited this kind of stuff into the
equation.
 

He said he'd take a home town discount.  He said comfort was really important to him.  He said he was very comfortable in Boston as it was all that he knew other than his short stay in Oakland. He said he isn't about the last dollar.  No one forced him to say any of those things.  The logical
implication from what Jon has said is that if Boston is in the zone, he would go there.
 
But we cannot ignore that the he Sox -- if we are to believe the reports and assume that there are no mitigating factors that we are unaware of -- low balled him this past Spring and seemingly botched the negotiations.
 
That context is part of the overall picture when we recall Jon's statements, some of which occurred after last Spring.
 
My point is that the player in this case opened the door to some of the psychobabble.  When that happens, it's not like a Papelbon situation when compensation, and not sentiment, is all that matters.
 
In short, it's hard to ignore the softer factors -- especially your second one about loyality -- in the context of what Jon Lester might do.  I agree that the LL/Theo stuff is probably irrelevant but, then
again, LL and Theo are people too, and it's not at all beyond the pale that their own past might play a role in how much money they respectively offer and what they might say to the player to entice him.   
Lester said he'd take a hometown discount when:
1) he still had a year before free agency;
2) he owned a house in this town;
3) he played for the Red Sox;
4) he thought a hometown discount was six years
with an AAV in the low 20's, not 4/70.

(#4 is more of a guess based on comments/innuendo around the time of the early negotiations, such as the talk that he'd accept the same money the Tigers offered Scherzer).

I have no expectation that his comments from March or whatever still hold true.
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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snowmanny said:
Lester said he'd take a hometown discount when:
1) he still had a year before free agency;
2) he owned a house in this town;
3) he played for the Red Sox;
4) he thought a hometown discount was six years
with an AAV in the low 20's, not 4/70.

(#4 is more of a guess based on comments/innuendo around the time of the early negotiations, such as the talk that he'd accept the same money the Tigers offered Scherzer).

I have no expectation that his comments from March or whatever still hold true.
 
In other words, the "I believed it when I said it" defense? Lester made statements that were statements of principle ("money doesn't make me happy"), not merely circumstancial. That's the point of the previous post . He's absolutely has the right to go the highest bidder, but it's also fine for people to note that that is inconsistent with what he had said. He wouldn't be the first athlete to say it's not about the money when their actions suggest it's evidently, absolutely about the money. 
 

djhb20

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Except we'll never know who offered the most money, as any team that loses isn't going to say "we offered more money but we still weren't attractive enough."

And, of course, what's "in the zone" may differ depending on what the situation is at the other offers. If the Astros offered $20 million more than the Sox, he may not take it. If the Cubs offered $5 million more, and he thinks he's be similarly comfortable, he might take it and thus ended up choosing the deal with the most money. If, after investigating the Cubs situation, he decided it wasn't as nice a situation, he might chose the Sox and $5 million less.

Regardless, choosing the deal with the most money doesn't necessarily mean "it was all about the money."
 

ivanvamp

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Snoop Soxy Dogg said:
 
In other words, the "I believed it when I said it" defense? Lester made statements that were statements of principle ("money doesn't make me happy"), not merely circumstancial. That's the point of the previous post . He's absolutely has the right to go the highest bidder, but it's also fine for people to note that that is inconsistent with what he had said. He wouldn't be the first athlete to say it's not about the money when their actions suggest it's evidently, absolutely about the money. 
 
I don't think it's necessarily inconsistent.  Maybe he ultimately will go to Boston, but he's looking for the largest contract he can get, considering it may be his last.  I mean, we got reports that the Sox offer a week or so ago was, what, 6/120 or so, but that they would be willing to continue negotiations.  Maybe they told him, Jon, we want you and we will pay you what the market will bear.  And that gave him the green light to keep the process going.  
 
WE HAVE NO IDEA HOW THIS IS REALLY TRANSPIRING.
 
If you had two job options, one in a city you loved and the other in a city you could live in but don't necessarily love, you say you would prefer to live in that city you love.  But it's not inconsistent to want that and yet also try to get paid as much as you can in that city.
 
If he ends up leaving Boston for a contract that is $2 million bigger, then yeah, I think the criticism would be warranted.  But he hasn't left yet.  Nothing is final.  Let's let it play out.  
 

snowmanny

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I just don't see it as inconsistent, given the changing circumstances. He gave the Red Sox an opportunity to strike first when they were the only only organization he'd ever played for and it was his 'hometown.' In my opinion, unless it turns out that there was on offer of at least 5/110 before July, the Red Sox declined that opportunity and that negates his previous comments. But obviously that's just my opinion.
 

Carroll Hardy

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The Red Sox and Jon Lester appear to be negotiating in good faith, allowing market forces and competition to play out. As far as I can tell, the team is not yet at the point where they have told Lester they are at their limit. I will hold off on any criticism until we see what happens after that point. Clearly, Lester knew that he could generate a market, and after pitching for Boston at a discounted rate, it is not unreasonable for him to extract the maximum value from Boston before he signs with them.

Now, if he doesn't, and the numbers and years reported are accurate, that would be a completely different situation, given what he said earlier.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Maybe Lester is hoping the Yankees swoop in at 6/180, so he can take $30M less to return to Boston and help cement his legacy as a really awesome guy.
 

67WasBest

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Lester still has to visit St. Louis.  I don't know why anyone would not see a man of integrity like Lester as a person who would not honor a publicized commitment to visit a team and instead make a deal prior to that visit.  Not to mention, his agents would absolutely want that visit.
 
Sox have an offer in, likely with a request for last refusal
Cubs have an offer in, likely requested last refusal, but were informed that is reserved for Red Sox so Theo gets call before Sox if someone has beat their offer
Blue Jays, Braves and Marlins did not offer
 
Now a visit to StL where he will maybe get a third offer.
 
They'll sit down, and if Boston is high they call Theo, and Theo counters, or not.  If the counter exceeds Boston, he calls Boston.  Sox counter, or not.
 
Lester decides.
 
All these suggestions that offers are going up on some kind of regular basis don't make sense to me.  If someone has more insight please help me/us understand how the exchange of offers process really works?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Of course the offers will increase as Lester meets with teams, interest increases and offers are made. If we put 6/120 on the table then the Cubs have 6/130 the Cardinals, Giants and whoever else he meets with knows they have to beat the 130......this is how a FA market is built, this is how an agent earns his reputation and makes his living. It will end once teams back away and the last one standing to outbid the others will be the one winning. This could easily get toward 145-150 before all is said and done if these teams yet to meet with Lester really want him badly.
 

TheoShmeo

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I'm not knocking Lester for doing anything.  And it's true that we only know a fraction of what has transpired and it's more than possible that he will stay.  
 
I'm just saying that Lester injected a lot of the softer, intangible points into the discussion -- before AND after the Sox failed to reel him in last March-April --and, as a result, it's more than fair game for fans to discuss some of those factors and comments now.
 
That he put his house on the market is of no moment, in my view.  I believe the listing was for about $2 mm.  While that's likely enough for a very nice house in Newton (though I don't really know that market), anyone with a 9 figure contract can be expected to upgrade. 
 

geoduck no quahog

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My (useless) guess about Lester is that last spring he really wanted to stay with the Red Sox, and made all the politically correct pronouncements to facilitate a realistic offer that would have avoided free agency. Once the Red Sox decided they weren't going to bid against themselves, FA became a foregone conclusion...with the highest bidder winning.
 
No one did anything "wrong".
 

67WasBest

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HomeRunBaker said:
Of course the offers will increase as Lester meets with teams, interest increases and offers are made. If we put 6/120 on the table then the Cubs have 6/130 the Cardinals, Giants and whoever else he meets with knows they have to beat the 130......this is how a FA market is built, this is how an agent earns his reputation and makes his living. It will end once teams back away and the last one standing to outbid the others will be the one winning. This could easily get toward 145-150 before all is said and done if these teams yet to meet with Lester really want him badly.
Is that real or your guess?  Little I've read on these suggests it goes back and forth each time an offer is extended.
 

BarrettsHiddenBall

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geoduck no quahog said:
My (useless) guess about Lester is that last spring he really wanted to stay with the Red Sox, and made all the politically correct pronouncements to facilitate a realistic offer that would have avoided free agency. Once the Red Sox decided they weren't going to bid against themselves, FA became a foregone conclusion...with the highest bidder winning.
 
No one did anything "wrong".
But if the Red Sox wanted to bring Jon Lester back without compromising their approach to large/long contracts, didn't they do it "wrong" by only making one low 'negotiate from here' offer before they decided not to "bid against themselves"? They could have paid something like 6/105, now it looks like they'll have to pay at least 6/144 (admittedly + Cespedes).
 
This doesn't make them a bad organization or anything, but I think they pretty clearly screwed up the Lester negotiations this spring.
 

Otis Foster

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67WasBest said:
Is that real or your guess?  Little I've read on these suggests it goes back and forth each time an offer is extended.
It seems pretty clear it's his guess. It's a logical sequence, but isn't based on any real inside data.

HRB can correct this if I'm wrong.
 

HomeRunBaker

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67WasBest said:
Is that real or your guess?  Little I've read on these suggests it goes back and forth each time an offer is extended.
It's a guess that one would imagine occurs based on how a typical negotiation works. The agent doesn't want to divulge the exact offer he has from another team as that would limit his upside but there is certainly a number leaked that the team knows that have to beat or blow away.

If I'm buying a new car with specs in hand for $40k I'm calling Joe at the next place telling him Bill can get me in well under $40k then I shut up. If he still invites me down then I know he's serious about selling me that car for "well under $40k." Then I can keep shopping to keep the market moving until everyone backs out so I get the best deal.

Lester's team is who leaks these numbers without confirming or denying to gauge the market. If teams keep calling to set up meetings, which they apparently are, then you have to assume that these teams are seriously considering beating that number. That's what drives the market for your client.
 

67WasBest

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Otis Foster said:
It seems pretty clear it's his guess. It's a logical sequence, but isn't based on any real inside data.

HRB can correct this if I'm wrong.
Ya, I've rethought this.  It could go either way, but as this progrsses, the Braves and Blue Jays have dropped, likely because the number washigher than they could go.  The Cubs exceeded the Sox offer, so the Levinson's call Ben, and Ben says we will go there.  Now Theo is contemplating a richer offer, and the Cards have not expressed the number is too high for them so that meeting still happens.  Ya, I can see this as the case.  Thanks to both
 

67WasBest

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HomeRunBaker said:
It's a guess that one would imagine occurs based on how a typical negotiation works. The agent doesn't want to divulge the exact offer he has from another team as that would limit his upside but there is certainly a number leaked that the team knows that have to beat or blow away.

If I'm buying a new car with specs in hand for $40k I'm calling Joe at the next place telling him Bill can get me in well under $40k then I shut up. If he still invites me down then I know he's serious about selling me that car for "well under $40k."

Lester's team is who leaks these numbers without confirming or denying to gauge the market. If teams keep calling to set up meetings, which they apparently are, then you have to assume that these teams are seriously considering beating that number.
Yup, see above  Thanks
 

radsoxfan

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BarrettsHiddenBall said:
But if the Red Sox wanted to bring Jon Lester back without compromising their approach to large/long contracts, didn't they do it "wrong" by only making one low 'negotiate from here' offer before they decided not to "bid against themselves"? They could have paid something like 6/105, now it looks like they'll have to pay at least 6/144 (admittedly + Cespedes).
 
This doesn't make them a bad organization or anything, but I think they pretty clearly screwed up the Lester negotiations this spring.
 
People need to stop comparing the hypothetical spring training contract and Lester's current free agent offers and saying the Red Sox obviously made a mistake.  The obvious flaw is that we have no idea what Lester would have signed for. The much more important flaw is that they are offers at two different points in time for 2 totally different scenarios.
 
In the spring, Lester was looking for an extension which was starting a year in the future.  Unless the Red Sox had a crystal ball, they had no way of knowing he would pitch like an ace (he was a year removed from a very mediocre season), or that he would stay healthy all year.  So the offer at that point had to take those very important unknown variables into account.  
 
I'm not saying the way they went about it was perfect, or that their strategy is beyond criticism (maybe they weighted those unknown variables too strongly in their opening offer).  But pointing to the contract that they may have gotten Lester for, and the contract he is likely to get now, and drawing a straight line to "front office mistake" completely misses the point.
 
Lester bet on himself, and he came out on the other side looking great. The Red Sox obviously knew this was a possibility, and are now willing to pay the premium he earned.  There is an alternate universe in which Jon Lester got hurt or sucked in 2014, and we can't believe we're stuck with him at 100+ million for the next 6 years.  Just because the front office is in this position now, it doesn't automatically mean they were fools a year ago.  
 

C4CRVT

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Obviously, no one here knows what's really going on with the negotiation..other than that it's not over yet and that there are offers on the table from at least two clubs.
 
I know this is useless fodder in the thread but the numbers being posted are starting to get into the "wow, that contract is going to suck if Lester only has 2 really good years in there" territory. Paying the premium for the increased odds of success is a pricy enterprise.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that, "as of this week," the Cardinals have no plans to bring in Jon Lester for a visit.
 

BarrettsHiddenBall

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radsoxfan said:
 
People need to stop comparing the hypothetical spring training contract and Lester's current free agent offers and saying the Red Sox obviously made a mistake.  The obvious flaw is that we have no idea what Lester would have signed for. The much more important flaw is that they are offers at two different points in time for 2 totally different scenarios.
 
In the spring, Lester was looking for an extension which was starting a year in the future.  Unless the Red Sox had a crystal ball, they had no way of knowing he would pitch like an ace (he was a year removed from a very mediocre season), or that he would stay healthy all year.  So the offer at that point had to take those very important unknown variables into account.  
 
I'm not saying the way they went about it was perfect, or that their strategy is beyond criticism (maybe they weighted those unknown variables too strongly in their opening offer).  But pointing to the contract that they may have gotten Lester for, and the contract he is likely to get now, and drawing a straight line to "front office mistake" completely misses the point.
 
Lester bet on himself, and he came out on the other side looking great. The Red Sox obviously knew this was a possibility, and are now willing to pay the premium he earned.  There is an alternate universe in which Jon Lester got hurt or sucked in 2014, and we can't believe we're stuck with him at 100+ million for the next 6 years.  Just because the front office is in this position now, it doesn't automatically mean they were fools a year ago.  
On the obvious flaw, even if you don't credit Gammons' report that the Bailey deal + $1 gets it done, it was clear from Lester's public comments that he would have signed at a significant discount. It's also just how this market operates -- if you're signing a year before FA, you're giving up the ability to test the waters and let the market decide in exchange for certainty. I don't think our not knowing exactly how much they're overpaying precludes discussion of the fact that they're overpaying.
 
On the much more important flaw, it's important, but it's not that important. The Red Sox (and apparently 6 other teams) want to sign him, not because of what he did in 2014, but because of what he's done over his career. Nothing about Jon Lester has fundamentally changed over the past season. He had a great year, the best of his career; this does not mean that he will continue to pitch at this level, or even effectively, going forward. He didn't get injured; this does not mean that he will not get injured going forward. There is some value in not being on the hook for nine figures if things had gone badly during 2014, but when you're considering whether to sign a long-term contract anyway, getting a one-year option (or IOW, a 'one-fifth to one-seventh of the total contract' option) is an extremely limited benefit.
 
More convincing is the change in the Red Sox own circumstances since ST; things fell apart. Buchholz Buchholz'd, Doubront imploded, none of the kids established themselves, and Lackey and Peavy are gone (the team's decision, but still). So yeah, it'd be fair to argue that Jon Lester (or any available frontline SP) is a bit more valuable to the Red Sox right now than back when they had an actual pitching rotation. Even so, in a best case scenario for the rotation, would they not be interested in resigning Lester? I think they try to retain him even if Buchholz had put up 30+ good starts and a couple of the kids had shown promise; there just aren't that many pitchers of his quality (even excluding 2014) available, and none of the others are Jon Freaking Lester. And if they would have wanted to retain him either way, why wait and do it at market rates? I just don't think a one-year option to see if he breaks down completely is worth $30+ million, especially when they're still going to be tying him up for six+ years.
 

pdub

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 2, 2007
517
I think the team just had a complete shift in philosophy over a short span. I get the sense that they previously wanted to retain Lester on a deal with a shorter term, as they were feeling the effects of the Punto trade and wanted to build the team differently. Hence, no long-term commitments to players 30 and older. That is where that 4yr/$70M deal came in, even though it was very ill-advised. I'm no GM but my immediate thought was "That HAS to be disrespectful". 
 
Then, the team stunk up the whole season. It was bad enough that a fire sale was done and the team was revamped. What's changed since then? Pressure on the team to appease its fan base. Pressure on the team to justify its expensive ticket prices. Also, lack of productivity from certain players who have been relied upon previously. 
 
1. WMB is done. I think the thought of the team trying him out for one more at 3B was just too much, especially after he refused to play winter ball.
 
2. JBJ has no offense. Because of pressure from the fan base, the team cannot afford to give him much more time. He's a victim of the team's popularity. 
 
3. Boagerts and his slump. Again, same problem as JBJ. The kid has talent and is one of the few players where I think he'll get an extended chance to prove himself. At the same time, I would not be surprised if he's traded.
 
I'm still trying to understand why we signed both Sandoval AND Ramirez. That's an extra $100M that could have gone towards securing both Lester and Shields, all while retaining our prospects. I'd rather wait it out this year and truly see what we have with Xander, Betts, and JBJ, as opposed to what's currently going on. 
 
At the end of the day, I think the team had a certain foundation they wanted to build on. That foundation crumpled because the players involved either didn't perform as expected, or the team lost patience due to other reasons. 
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,269
pdub said:
I'm still trying to understand why we signed both Sandoval AND Ramirez. That's an extra $100M that could have gone towards securing both Lester and Shields, all while retaining our prospects. I'd rather wait it out this year and truly see what we have with Xander, Betts, and JBJ, as opposed to what's currently going on. 
 
 
I don't feel the Sox had/have plans on spending big money on long term deals for TWO free agent starting pitchers. The second (and/or third) would be in the form of a trade. It's apparent Cespedes was not in our plans so we need a LF......and signed Ramirez. We needed a 3B.....and signed Sandoval.

The thought being it is much easier to trade our excess OF/prospects for a starting pitcher as opposed to a starting LF or 3B. Ramirez also puts Napoli in play which could open up additional money if necessary while replacing him with a Craig/Nava/see what sticks or address at the deadline combo at 1B. It opens up a lot of options.
 

67WasBest

Concierge
SoSH Member
Mar 17, 2004
2,442
Music City USA
HomeRunBaker said:
I don't feel the Sox had/have plans on spending big money on long term deals for TWO free agent starting pitchers. The second (and/or third) would be in the form of a trade. It's apparent Cespedes was not in our plans so we need a LF......and signed Ramirez. We needed a 3B.....and signed Sandoval.

The thought being it is much easier to trade our excess OF/prospects for a starting pitcher as opposed to a starting LF or 3B. Ramirez also puts Napoli in play which could open up additional money if necessary while replacing him with a Craig/Nava/see what sticks or address at the deadline combo at 1B. It opens up a lot of options.
I would agree with all other than how Hanley arrived.  I think that was an unexpected gift they could not refuse to accept.  His deal does compromise their ability to spend big on two starters, but according to numbers I posted in the trading for starters thread I think they have about $41M available on the 2016 budget for the #1 and #2 starters.  That prediction assumes they sign Miller also.
 

jhogan88

New Member
Apr 19, 2012
111
Santa Barbara
1. Agreed--WMB will not be the answer at 3B and WMB has more than enough opportunities. Not a bad option to keep him in AAA and hope he demonstrates value for a trade.
 
2. JBJ had plenty of time to demonstrate improvement, or a willingness to be coached, and subsequently set records for his incompetent offensive production. With the resources the Red Sox have, JBJ would benefit from some AAA reps and hopefully demonstrate offensive value to leverage him as an asset in a trade, or a potential defensive replacement after Shane's contract ends.
 
3. X is 22 years old. His potential is worth an extended look at the MLB level--plus, he plays a premium position where offensive production is a tremendous differentiator, unlike 3B and OF. X won't be traded.
 
Anytime you have a chance to sign a player of the caliber of Sandoval to shore up 3B, which has been a production issues for multiple years, you do it, I really like the Hanley signing for two reasons. 1st, Hanley approach the Boston FO with a willingness to switch positions and LF is a great fit. Secondly, when Ramirez is healthy, he is the best offensive force in the lineup and I'm not sure it's close aside from an aging Ortiz.
 
The beauty of having a great farm system and financial resources is the depth it provides the FO. With 69 million off the books next year, there is no reason why we cannot use resources to fill 3B with a All-Star caliber switch hitter and also add an offensive machine like Hanley to help an underachieving OF core. Both JBJ and WMB will have time in AAA to show they are improving their offense. The FO is not giving up on JBJ--instead, they are opting to be competitive next year while allowing JBJ to figure out his stroke in AAA.
 
The FO has financial resources to sign Lester. We have a surplus of talent to trade for a #2. I think you are undervaluing the scope of the financial and minor-league chips the Sox have, and what is terrific is the fact that Ben is willing to leverage both to become competitive in 2014 while maintaining some cost controlled prospects. We are not the Athletics--we have the luxury of spending big on proven talent to fill holes while still retaining prospects.

 
pdub said:
I think the team just had a complete shift in philosophy over a short span. I get the sense that they previously wanted to retain Lester on a deal with a shorter term, as they were feeling the effects of the Punto trade and wanted to build the team differently. Hence, no long-term commitments to players 30 and older. That is where that 4yr/$70M deal came in, even though it was very ill-advised. I'm no GM but my immediate thought was "That HAS to be disrespectful". 
 
Then, the team stunk up the whole season. It was bad enough that a fire sale was done and the team was revamped. What's changed since then? Pressure on the team to appease its fan base. Pressure on the team to justify its expensive ticket prices. Also, lack of productivity from certain players who have been relied upon previously. 
 
1. WMB is done. I think the thought of the team trying him out for one more at 3B was just too much, especially after he refused to play winter ball.
 
2. JBJ has no offense. Because of pressure from the fan base, the team cannot afford to give him much more time. He's a victim of the team's popularity. 
 
3. Boagerts and his slump. Again, same problem as JBJ. The kid has talent and is one of the few players where I think he'll get an extended chance to prove himself. At the same time, I would not be surprised if he's traded.
 
I'm still trying to understand why we signed both Sandoval AND Ramirez. That's an extra $100M that could have gone towards securing both Lester and Shields, all while retaining our prospects. I'd rather wait it out this year and truly see what we have with Xander, Betts, and JBJ, as opposed to what's currently going on. 
 
At the end of the day, I think the team had a certain foundation they wanted to build on. That foundation crumpled because the players involved either didn't perform as expected, or the team lost patience due to other reasons. 
 
 
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