The premature re-signing Lester thread

[nattysez]

It seems like this is being discussed in a few different threads, so maybe we can consolidate things here.
 
The A's won't re-sign Lester, barring a massive change in philosophy.
 
Bob Klapsich says that the MFY have to sign Lester or Scherzer, because their rotation is in shambles. 
 
The Cubs have money and are on the precipice of bringing all the hitters that are at the core of Theo's "five-year plan" to the majors.  The question is whether ownership is willing to spend, particularly given how well Theo's done with trades/reclamation projects for starters and how poorly his one big-money starter (Edwin Jackson) has fared.
 
Of course, there are really no teams that you can say "would never" sign Lester other than the skinflints (PIT, OAK, TB, KC, HOU, MIN, SD, and probably CLE, NYM, COL and SF).
 
It's interesting that after spending most of the week saying that there was no way Lester would be back, Edes has started tweeting things like this and this, and he retweeted this (the point being that Edes seems to think Lester's return is possible if unlikely).
 
Also worth noting is that CHB made clear (I won't link to CHB articles) that Lester and Henry had a somewhat substantive discussion when Henry talked to Lester as he was leaving Fenway:
 

 
“It was kind of weird because I didn’t know he wanted to talk to me,’’ said Lester. “I thought he was just saying, ‘Bye,’ and I kind of hugged him and he was like, ‘Well, I still want to talk to you.’ I think the talk went well. I don’t want to give away a lot of it. It was pretty personal. But the coolest part was he told me, ‘You’re a Red Sox forever.’ To me that meant the most. Just kind of like, ‘Hey, we appreciate everything you’ve done. This was a business move, but you’re still a Red Sox and you’ll always be a Red Sox, no matter what happens in the future.’ To me, that was the coolest part.
 

 
Maybe it was all just personal expressions of admiration, but I think it's worth noting that Henry went out of his way to say goodbye to Lester (especially given Klapish's theory that Cashman wishing Lester luck when he was diagnosed with cancer makes Lester feel warm fuzzies about the MFY).
 
I think the FO plans to offer Lester something significant --- let's say 6/$120 -- and make a real effort to re-sign him without completely breaking the bank.  I think the issue will be how close to the 6/$144 Scherzer turned down other teams will offer Lester.  I expect the Sox will be willing to pay somewhere between 6/$120 and 6/$144, but it's entirely possible that they're not even willing to go to 6 years in the first place, in which case I don't think Lester will be back. 

 

[MakMan44]

I think the Red Sox have a real chance at bringing him back if they offer something in the neighborhood of 6/130 or so. My question is, were they willing to do that at season's end before trading Lester and if not, why would that change because they traded him.
 
From everything I've seen since the trade, it sounded like there weren't any real negations done once the season started, which is a big change from what I saw before the trade. If I'm wrong on that, I'd love to be corrected. 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

It's possible that they are willing to go that high depending on how the market develops over the early part of the winter. If Scherzer either signs early or is asking for the moon (7/210 or something) and Shields signs elsewhere quickly, they might adjust their limit for Lester to ensure they don't get completely shut out of the starting pitching market. Their risk tolerance while in the midst of a lost season with a bunch of starting pitching options available to them between now and next April is probably lower than it would be if a bunch of those other options dried up. They'll have the trade market to explore as well, so I can understand the desire to be patient.
 
I'm guessing that as the season developed they started eyeing the trade deadline as a way to maximize their assets and that conversations with Lester led them to believe that they were going to have to go to market rate to re-sign him anyway. If those conversations also left them with the feeling that trading him wouldn't change what it would take to get him back in a Sox uniform, this may have been the ideal outcome (given the circumstances) in their minds.
 
I have no idea what the odds are of Lester returning. I'd still wager they aren't good, considering how many teams will be waving absurd contracts in his face. However, I'm not writing it off entirely.

 

[snowmanny]

Why will John Henry change his mind and decide to offer a thirty-year old pitcher more than a four year contract?
Sentimentality?
Public pressure?
Fear of not having any dependable pitchers, like Snod says?

They could have had him at 6/120-130 months ago, and I think the market for his services will be higher than that. So now we are saying they wouldn't make a deal at 5/110-6/120 in March but they will at 6/150 in December?

They have a plan to spend their money and fill their rotation, but I don't believe it involves Lester or Scherzer or Shields. Beyond that I have no clue what it is or whether they will stick to it.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Why will John Henry change his mind and decide to offer a thirty-year old pitcher more than a four year contract?
Sentimentality?
Public pressure?
Fear of not having any dependable pitchers, like Snod says?

Well, first of all, maybe he won't change his mind.  On the other hand, maybe given enough time to stew about it (and to consider the challenges of building a 2015-2016 contender) he will opt to make a realistic offer.  
 
It does seem as if Lester has left on good terms, and he's gone to a team that is not a realistic candidate to sign him.  Both of those things point to a possible return.  
 
On the other hand, he and Scherzer are the top free agent pitchers in this year's class.  Comparing them side by side, since 2009 Lester has been better than Scherzer in every year except for Lester's bad 2012 and Scherzer's career year in 2013.  And thus far in 2014, Lester is on a pace to better Scherzer's career year.  And, unlike Scherzer, Lester can be signed without giving up a draft pick.
 
All of that means that whether the Sox want him back or not, he might still get a ridicoulous offer, one he cannot refuse, from the MFY or the Dodgers.

 

[BroodsSexton]

I don't know much about this but if for whatever reason a deal didn't get done in the spring, and the parties then weren't going to negotiate during the season, wouldn't it make all the sense in the world given where the Sox are right now to trade him for value with a handshake that they would then bring him back? In other words, the Sox really don't need Lester for the rest of this season. Why not trade him and then take him back, plus the trade value? It's better for both Lester and for the Sox than signing a deal now. He gets a title run; the Sox get Cespedes.

 

[Otis Foster]

I don't know much about this but if for whatever reason a deal didn't get done in the spring, and the parties then weren't going to negotiate during the season, wouldn't it make all the sense in the world given where the Sox are right now to trade him for value with a handshake that they would then bring him back? In other words, the Sox really don't need Lestert is for for the rest of this season. Why not trade him and then take him back, plus the trade value? It's better for both Lester and for the Sox than signing a deal now. He gets a title run; the Sox get Cespedes.

If the RS do sign Lester, I imagine the Commissioner's office will be all over this with an electronic microscope. The only way your hypothetical to prove out is for JH and JL to lie, which I think highly improbable.

 

[MakMan44]

I thought they would be lying to the commissioners office about that handshake deal in your scenario. 

 

[Rasputin]

Ummmm what would the commissioners office be looking for exactly? If the Sox had a handshake agreement with Lester to return before they traded him, there's no rule against that. He was their property and allowed to discuss whatever they want with him. Oak traded for him with no pretense of him resigning that impacted what they gave for his services. There is nothing for the Sox to get into trouble over. Lester Is free to sign with whomever he wants. See: Aguilera.

I also don't see where Henry and Lester have "lied"? Help me out with that.

 
Actually, there is--or at least was--a rule against side deals. Remember when Clemens signed with Toronto and there was a side deal to the effect that if the Jays weren't competitive at all in the first two years, the Jays would trade him to New York? That was an illegal side deal. It's a different kind of deal, but I'm sure it's covered by the same rule.
 
But it's easy to get around. I'm sure by the deadline, the Sox had a pretty decent idea what Lester was looking for and I'm sure they didn't make a specific offer but happened to mention that if he were to reach the free agency period, the Sox would be interested in talking further. Then they go out of their way to not talk to him at all in any way that resembles anything inappropriate.
 
And a minute or so after the free agency period starts, they e-mail an official offer.

 

[Sprowl]

The time is four months from Now, and the word is Love.

 

[yecul]

All signs point to Boston making a reasonably strong bid and nothing more. I don't expect them to come close to the Scherzer offer. Nor will they be in that 70m range they were at before. Either he will take their best offer or he won't -- exactly the same spot they'd be in if they made a month ago.

 

[EddieYost]

The side deal is mentioned here:

http://nypost.com/1999/02/21/clemens-meter-already-is-running/

 

[Rasputin]

Remember the day of game six last year where as the day went on, you just got more and more sure that it was a done deal and there was nothing that the cards could do to win? I'm getting that feeling about Lester coming back.

 

[sdiaz1]

The Yankees already have slightly over 172 million dollars committed in contracts for next season, leaving them a little less than 17 million before they hit the cap. But as things stand now,  they have no shortstop, second basemen, third basemen, closer (or a guy to take Betances place in the eight) and need at least two starting pitchers for the 2015 season.
 
Obviously they are going to be over the limit again, there is no way around that, but how much are they really going to spend? They will be obligated to pay the league 50% of every dollar that they go over. I understand that they are the Yankees and all that, but are they really going to be in on either Lester or Scherzer, who alone will cost them 22-25 million per season? If they do they will already be at least 5 million dollars over the limit.

 

[Rasputin]

There is like a six thousand percent chance that they sign Scherzer. He turned down top dollar from a competitive team do he wants the big bucks and the Yankees have them.

I think Lester coming back is either going to happen petty quickly or not at all.

 

[wutang112878]

Why will John Henry change his mind and decide to offer a thirty-year old pitcher more than a four year contract?

They could have had him at 6/120-130 months ago, and I think the market for his services will be higher than that. So now we are saying they wouldn't make a deal at 5/110-6/120 in March but they will at 6/150 in December?

They have a plan to spend their money and fill their rotation, but I don't believe it involves Lester or Scherzer or Shields. Beyond that I have no clue what it is or whether they will stick to it.

 
These are excellent points and I really hope the offseason unfolds in such a way that they revisit their 30 year old pitcher policy. 
 
My hope is that Scherzer doesnt completely screw up Lester's market value so he either signs first for something we consider 'reasonable' like 6/120 or he doesnt sign before Lester .  A few lesser pitchers sign so the Red Sox can look at what it would mean to sign 2 lesser guys for the same money that Lester would be getting and realize how unattractive that option is.  They look at the career numbers for lefties like Glavine, Pettite, Lee, etc and realize that there is a subset of lefties where the 31 to 34 seasons are actually pretty good.  And, they remember how rare and precious top of the line starters are.
 
If all goes according to my pipe dream plan, I do think they feel differently than they did a few weeks ago.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

If Lester is interested in coming back he will be the first top free agent off the board. The longer Lester is out in free agency the less chance there is he returns. I personally do feel the Sox and Lester know what it will take to get him to return. I would put the odds of Lester returning at over 50%. Optimistic? Sure. But remember neither side has really bashed each other on the way out and the "split" seemed very amicable.

As for why the Red Sox did this, it's a win win. In trading Lester they get a middle of the order bat to assist with run support and the Sox get to evaluate which kids have a chance to step up to fill out the rotation.

Lester gets to pitch for a contender and then get the opportunity to come back and become twice as popular as before. Do not underestimate the pull NESN has in this scenario either. The ratings for Lester's first start back in a Sox uniform would be huge.

 

[knucklecup]

RT @GordonEdes: FWIW, Mike Barnicle on "Morning Joe" says its "50-50" that Jon Lester returns to Red Sox this winter. He has friends in high places.

 

[threecy]

FWIW, Mike Barnicle on "Morning Joe" says its "50-50" that Jon Lester returns to Red Sox this winter. He has friends in high places.

Mike Barnicle would *never* make up a story.

 

[Stitch01]

I feel more optimistic than a week ago, I'd say the chances are closer to 10-15 percent than 5 percent. Ultimately I think Lester is going to get something crazy and it won't be from the Sox.

 

[FelixMantilla]

Because we can't have enough Lester threads.

 

[TheoShmeo]

The obvious problem with the Lester Returns angle is that the Sox had every chance to get this done and failed, likely because they are unwilling to give Lester the amount of years he will get on the open market.  Why would things be different when the Sox are not the only bidders?
 
The ONLY reasons I can see for him returning notwithstanidng the open market are (a) if it's true that Larry will only give his best offer if he's pushed to the edge and/or (b) the Sox fear a PR backlash if Lester otherwise goes to the team who will almost certainly offer him the most, the MFYs.
 
And will Cespedes' performance the rest of the way play a role in any way?  For example, if he performs at an extremely high level, will the Sox fear a lesser backlash and be less generous with Lester?

 

[Stitch01]

It shouldn't, I doubt it does, and if it does its way more troublesome than losing Lester and we are likely in for some lean years. Making nine figure deals based on PR is what bad organizations do.

 

[NDame616]

I think the whole "The Red Sox have made it clear to Lester they'll be competitive with an offer" is just a PR move so when they do offer him $20-40M less than the highest offer and Lester accepts that, then they come back and talk about how they tried, made him a great offer and he just didn't accept it. They can do a token 5 year offer (say, 5/110) knowing he'll get 6 with an option somewhere and can come back and say "we tried! We even went beyond what our organizational thinking is offered a long-term contract to a 31 year old pitcher because we really love Lester"
 
The Red Sox will offer him like 5/110 and Lester will probably give the the chance to offer slightly less than the deal he's going to take (I still think he's looking at 6/150 with an option) and Lester will sign with whomever offers the most.
 
Frankly, with a good post season I wouldn't be surprised at 7/175.

 

[uncannymanny]

This sounds like a great plan to stoke the fire of fan discontent after it's subsided quite a bit over the next few months. Making another half-hearted offer would probably be the worst thing they could do for PR.

 

[threecy]

One remote possibility:

• The Sox have a history of holding off extending contracts until after the start of the season for luxury tax purposes.
• If the Sox merely resigned/extended Lester, they'd net zero draft picks/prospects.
• If Lester had amazing *corporate* loyalty (as opposed to team loyalty), there could have been a handshake agreement that, if they were in contention, they'd extend him at the All Star break, and if they weren't in contention, they'd deal him for talent and then resign him after the bridge season.

 

[JimD]

Why will John Henry change his mind and decide to offer a thirty-year old pitcher more than a four year contract?
 

 
Um, two months of watching his team's post-Lester pitching staff?

 

[wutang112878]

The obvious problem with the Lester Returns angle is that the Sox had every chance to get this done and failed, likely because they are unwilling to give Lester the amount of years he will get on the open market.  Why would things be different when the Sox are not the only bidders?

 
Great point.  The optimist in me has me hoping the Red Sox: realized they screwed up negotiations with the first low-ball, they still want him at the higher price, and Lester and his agents were determined to hit free agency and not resign early.  Assuming Lester was genuine stating he would be willing to come back, they might have figured having him hit the market was inevitable and offering him maybe 1 year less and 10% AAV less than market was the situation they were in with or without the trade.  They basically turned what could have been an amicable negotiation into a cluster because of their 30+ pitcher policy which I still hope the realize has an occasional exception to the rule.

 

[seageral]

I think it's doubtful that 'market rate' is 6/144 I think it's prob more like 7/175, but if it IS 6/144 they may have decided if they're going to pay that they might as well get a pick and a player out of the situation (and have 3 more months of good health/performance) than sign him right away.  

 

[wutang112878]

I know the market is going up but the biggest FA Pitcher deals I can find from the past few years (and I might be missing some) are:
 
2013 - Tanaka who was 25 at 7/155
2012 - Greinke who was 30 at 6/147
2012 - Hamels extension (so a little unique) who was 28 at 6/144
2010 (so far back its barely relevant) - Lee who was 35 at 5/120
 
Even though the FA market is crazy, I wouldnt be surprised if market value is 6 years with a vesting 7th

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Because we can't have enough Lester threads.

And this one based on absolutely no new information.

Maybe Henry decided hedge-fund guy is a lot less fun to play than fanboy and he told the troops - whatever it takes!

Who will play John Henry in the "Jon Lester Story"?

 

[NDame616]

This sounds like a great plan to stoke the fire of fan discontent after it's subsided quite a bit over the next few months. Making another half-hearted offer would probably be the worst thing they could do for PR.

 
"We offered Jon the biggest contract this ownership group has, by far, ever offered to a pitcher. We even went above and beyond our organizational philosophy about not signing 31-year-old pitchers to a long term deal, but we recognized what a great asset Jon was for this team. We were hoping it was enough to get it done, but ultimately it appeared that our offer wasn't enough and we with Jon the best on his new team (the Yankees). 
 
If the Sox offer 5/125 and the Yankees offer 7/175 and the Sox try to meet in the middle at 6/150 with an option and that isn't enough.....then I dunno

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I'm not sure what would be more satisfying...

The Red Sox sign Lester less than 24 hours after they are allowed to...

Speculation swirls all winter, but no announcements... Until Lester just appears at some point during spring training, and we get a "goodness gwacious" moment.

I'm really optimistic they sign him at this point, and the more I think about it, the more I think they have a handshake agreement.

Does a 4-5 year deal at market value with vesting options that take it up to 6-7 years make sense for both sides? Maybe with player options for $10/m a year or so if he doesn't meet the vesting requirements? And the team holds options for the vesting years as well?

Say for example:
2015: $24M
2016: $24M
2017: $24M
2018: $24M
2019: $24M
2020: $24M vesting option if X innings pitch reached in 2018, or Y innings averaged per season from 2015-2018.
If neither innings threshold is not met, team holds $24M option. If team declines option, player holds $12M option.
2021: $24M option, same as 2020. Option activates along with whichever is applied for 2020.

...something along those lines, tweaked as the market dictates, or towards what Lester would accept... Maybe a year less and/or $1-2M less per year still gets it done.

 

[uncannymanny]

6/150 is quite a bit different than the 5/110 posed in the last post. If they are turned down at 6/150 I'll be shocked.

I am optimistic. I think they can get really creative with fair vesting options like above. The amount of "I want to be a Red Sox" from Lester really doesn't scream lip service to me.

 

[yep]

My thoughts on this are pretty simple:
 
Lester would re-sign with the Red Sox if the Red Sox give him the best offer in terms of years and money. Since the Red Sox are not going to give Lester the best and highest offer he will receive, he is not going to re-sign with the Red Sox. 
 
I think the window for "hometown discounts" closes once the guy has already been moved to a different team, and other real offers are in front of him awaiting signature. 
 
This talk about him re-signing is kinda like thinking maybe you'll get back together with your girlfriend after she comes back from college and you come back from the army. Yeah, maybe. Anything is possible.

 

[glennhoffmania]

I know the market is going up but the biggest FA Pitcher deals I can find from the past few years (and I might be missing some) are:
 
2013 - Tanaka who was 25 at 7/155
2012 - Greinke who was 30 at 6/147
2012 - Hamels extension (so a little unique) who was 28 at 6/144
2010 (so far back its barely relevant) - Lee who was 35 at 5/120
 
Even though the FA market is crazy, I wouldnt be surprised if market value is 6 years with a vesting 7th

 
Greinke's first year with LA was his age 29 year, not 30.
 
Tanaka's deal is 7/175 when you include the posting fee.
 
I have no idea where you get 35 for Lee.  He's 35 right now.

 

[natpastime162]

I know the market is going up but the biggest FA Pitcher deals I can find from the past few years (and I might be missing some) are:
 
2013 - Tanaka who was 25 at 7/155
2012 - Greinke who was 30 at 6/147
2012 - Hamels extension (so a little unique) who was 28 at 6/144
2010 (so far back its barely relevant) - Lee who was 35 at 5/120
 
Even though the FA market is crazy, I wouldnt be surprised if market value is 6 years with a vesting 7th

 
Cliff Lee was 32 when he signed the contract.
 
Sabathia signed for 5/122 at 31 after the 2011 season

 

[wutang112878]

 
Greinke's first year with LA was his age 29 year, not 30.
 
Tanaka's deal is 7/175 when you include the posting fee.
 
I have no idea where you get 35 for Lee.  He's 35 right now.

 
So my screw up in ages actually makes the 'market value' seem a little softer given that those guys were actually younger.
 
Tanaka's really unique in that he was 25, and I'm not sure how the posting fee exactly translates to AAV for pitchers because it doesnt apply to the luxury tax.  I think the more relevant thing with Tanaka was that he was the only big pitcher contract that got 7 years and it seems he only got that because he was 25 whereas all of the guys who were 29+ only got 6   I think Lester's agents would have a tough time using that as a comp to get him 7, unless someone goes completely bonkers on a Lester offer and previous market comps just dont apply whatsoever.

 

[JimD]

A lot of this will depend on Lester's performance down the stretch.  A potential concern is his workload - Jon is on track to pitch 218 regular-season innings this year, on top of a personal high of 248 combined regular and postseason innings in 2013.  He's going to be under a lot of pressure since Oakland is now in a dogfight for the AL West and I'm a little concerned with al of those pitches catching up with him by the end of the season.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Who will play John Henry in the "Jon Lester Story"?

 

[uncannymanny]

Who will play John Henry in the "Jon Lester Story"?

 
John Hurt.

 

[TomRicardo]

If the RS do sign Lester, I imagine the Commissioner's office will be all over this with an electronic microscope. The only way your hypothetical to prove out is for JH and JL to lie, which I think highly improbable.

 
Why would the commissioner's office care?  It would be one thing if the team that Lester was traded to wanted to sign him and were prevented to because the Red Sox had a handshake.  It is a complete other thing when the team does not care at all.  MLB will not investigate if the As don't complain which they won't.  There is no way Billy Beane would make issue with it.

 

[Reverend]

 
Why would the commissioner's office care?  It would be one thing if the team that Lester was traded to wanted to sign him and were prevented to because the Red Sox had a handshake.  It is a complete other thing when the team does not care at all.  MLB will not investigate if the As don't complain which they won't.  There is no way Billy Beane would make issue with it.

 
Yeah, it could absolutely be done legally.
 
But if it happens, some people out there will suggest it sounds shady even as they don't point to any specific rule being broken. I would fully expect to see Belichick's name invoked.

 

[rembrat]

If it were anyone else I would be doubtful of a return but I think Lester is cut from the same cloth as Pedey in that he doesn't need all the moniez, he just needs a respectable offer. I can totally see him leaving a huge deal from the NYY on the table to come back home for 6/150.

 

[Toe Nash]

I'm very pessimistic. If they had been willing to offer what it would take it would have been done in the beginning of the season before the team was at the bottom of the standings. Maybe if all their prospects get hurt and / or are terrible they will up the offer, but otherwise this seems very simple to me. If they had something figured out, he would have been signed already, and wouldn't have been traded.
 
In order to think they have a handshake agreement, you have to think that:
1. The Sox weren't willing to offer much in the offseason, but upped their offer midseason and nothing leaked. I don't know why their valuation would change that much in a few months.
 
2. Lester wants to stay long-term and they had an understanding worked out, but since the Sox were bad and wanted to get something for him, he was willing to move across the country for two months to help out the Sox why? Because he wanted to win so much that he would move his family (or be away from them for two months)? Maybe he is that competitive, but that seems far-fetched.
 
3. If neither of the above are true, you would have to think that the Sox are going to make a market-value offer (or close) to get him to come back. That would mean they are more than doubling their original offer, if we believe the 4/$70 rumor / report.
 
4. Additionally, if they expected him back, wouldn't they keep his buddy Lackey around?
 
I just don't see it.

 

[MakMan44]

#2 isn't far fetched at all. Mostly because Lester has been quoted as saying he was okay with being traded. 

 

[Oil Can Dan]

If it were anyone else I would be doubtful of a return but I think Lester is cut from the same cloth as Pedey in that he doesn't need all the moniez, he just needs a respectable offer. I can totally see him leaving a huge deal from the NYY on the table to come back home for 6/150.

I agree with this.  And I get the sense that legacy is important to Jon.  I really believe him when he says that Henry's "you'll always be a Red Sox" meant a lot to him.  Should he sign with NYY for an extra $30m then that's largely gone, and I think he would realize that.
 
If the Sox can get within say 15% of his next highest offer then I think he comes back.  Of course it's the years too, and that's where it gets muddy.

 

[67WasBest]

Baseball is a very tight fraternity.  I would expect every team went into the bidding fully aware of the possibility, even likelihood, that Lester would return to Boston.  As mentioned above, there was no need to do anything underhand to make this happen.  As Rev noted, expect a rousing chorus of Belichick comparisons and calls about how Boston teams are always cheating.  Que Sera, Sera!

 

[JimD]

I'm very pessimistic. If they had been willing to offer what it would take it would have been done in the beginning of the season before the team was at the bottom of the standings. Maybe if all their prospects get hurt and / or are terrible they will up the offer, but otherwise this seems very simple to me. If they had something figured out, he would have been signed already, and wouldn't have been traded.
 
In order to think they have a handshake agreement, you have to think that:
1. The Sox weren't willing to offer much in the offseason, but upped their offer midseason and nothing leaked. I don't know why their valuation would change that much in a few months.
 
2. Lester wants to stay long-term and they had an understanding worked out, but since the Sox were bad and wanted to get something for him, he was willing to move across the country for two months to help out the Sox why? Because he wanted to win so much that he would move his family (or be away from them for two months)? Maybe he is that competitive, but that seems far-fetched.
 
3. If neither of the above are true, you would have to think that the Sox are going to make a market-value offer (or close) to get him to come back. That would mean they are more than doubling their original offer, if we believe the 4/$70 rumor / report.
 
4. Additionally, if they expected him back, wouldn't they keep his buddy Lackey around?
 
I just don't see it.

 
Doesn't he and his family live in Georgia in the offseason?  It's not as if he's uprooting them from the only place they lived in since 2006.

 

[BoSoxLady]

I believe there's a handshake agreement between Lester and the FO. That's what I choose to believe. If Lester doesn't return and he signs with another team other than the MFY, I won't be upset with him.
 
We know the MFY will offer him stupid money and if he signs with them, it will be for one reason only. Should that happenstance occur, he'll be a hypocrite and therefore, dead to me.