The premature re-signing Lester thread

[Rasputin]

Anyone doubting the Yankees will get either Lester or Scherzer?

I'm not going to be surprised if they get neither.

I will be surprised if Lester good anywhere but Boston.

 

[nattysez]

Olney tweeted this morning that Lester is meeting with the Giants today. I would be shocked if the Giants were willing to pay Lester close what the Cubs and Sox are offering, particularly since they have some significant holes to fill in 3b and LF.

 

[sodenj5]

Olney tweeted this morning that Lester is meeting with the Giants today. 1

 
SF might be the only place I can envision Lester choosing over Boston. Going to the NL might give his numbers a boost, he gets to play in a major market still and for a team that happens to have won 3 of the last 5 World Series titles. 

 

[jimbobim]

Gammo set to give an "update" on the Lester front on Hot Stove..... will provide further details 
 
 
From beginning the agents wanted to have this done by thurs/friday before winter meetings but its complicated cubs over 135 red sox keep going up. Clear it's going to Grienke range. Maybe drag onto this weekend . Two more phone interviews scheduled.  
 
5 teams have made bids. Red Sox have been very optimistic. Cubs the same. Giants have a lot of money. Envisioning Bumgarner Lester headed rotation 
 
Brings up Bill James study on "big games" 
 
Fun Fact
 
Lester is third in history behind Koufax and Johnny Padres in appearing in these big games. Also brings up the Boras pitch count thing. 
 
Stressed he doesn't think teams know where he is going to choose and nobody knows but I would note the Red Sox do employ Bill James 
 
Good shot at Shark and if they got Lester would rebuild the rotation..lack of depth explained. Red Sox need Pitching.  

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I will be surprised if Lester good anywhere but Boston.

 
Lester good many places. He healthy, big pitcher body. Throw easy, last many years, make much dough. You see.

 

[doc]

Tonto Day?
 
Lester will go with the combination of the money and the situation that he and his family likes, that's what free agents do.  We can all put on our retro-spectacles and kvetch until doomsday about whether the Sox brass screwed up in the spring.  It was a gamble on both sides and the Sox only lose if they have a crappy rotation next year.  There are any number of pitchers available as free agents and by trade that can give us a good rotation.  We presume an above average lineup with the opening moves they made, they shouldn't need a lights out rotation (but it would be nice).  
I would love Lester back with the Sox, but what I most want is a good rotation and a sustained run at the playoffs over the next several years. 

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

San Francisco isn't exactly the fuckin' outback. Holy shit. Dude is from the west coast anyway.

 
Yeah, this. I think it's a near perfect spot for him actually, NL and all.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Echoing on SF being a great landing spot for Lester.  Pitching in an extreme pitchers park facing NL lineups would be perfect for any pitcher.

 

[Devizier]

Honestly, I'm shocked the Dodgers haven't offered Lester 8/240 yet.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Tonto Day?

I was going more for Ghan-buri-Ghan, actually.

 

[Laser Show]

I guess ill just worry about SF when he goes out there and visits the city, that's all.

Also this
 
https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/539408970642100224
@Buster_ESPN The Giants are meeting with Jon Lester today.

 

[Reverend]

Never said 'this defintively means that the Giants are meeting w him in Atlanta.' I said I take it as SF visiting him.

My take =\= absolute truth

 
So you agree with him.
 
In other words, can we knock off the pointless chatter and try to keep it to posts with actual information or at least informed speculation?
 
And some of you need to clean up the writing too or we're just gonna nix the posts--the thread should be enjoyable and informative to read.
 
Edit: I moved the discussion of Jon Lester's comfort level with San Francisco and his kids to a more appropriate forum.

 

[Reverend]

Crasnick on Lester v. Scherzer three weeks ago:
 

In keeping with another November tradition, ESPN.com polled 28 general managers, assistant GMs, senior advisers, scouts and other baseball talent evaluators on eight questions that will be front-and-center during Hot Stove season. They responded via email or phone on the condition of anonymity.
 
Here are the results of this year's survey:
 
1. Which marquee free-agent starter will provide better value over the course of his next contract -- Jon Lester or Max Scherzer?
 
Responses: Lester 23; Scherzer 5.
 
Lester, who turns 31 in January, has 1,596 big-league innings on his résumé. Scherzer, who turns 31 in July, has 1,239. Lester has averaged 32 starts and 207 innings per season since 2008, while Scherzer checks in at 32 starts and 197 innings annually since 2009. They've combined for one DL visit (by Lester) in that span, so they enter free agency with impressive track records for health, durability and a willingness to "take the ball."
 
So who gets the nod as the better bet to hold up and pitch productively past age 35? Despite the lopsided nature of the vote, most respondents considered it a close call.
"You're just splitting hairs between two elite pitchers," an American League assistant GM said.
 
Lester's distinct (and somewhat surprising) advantage in the voting stems from three factors: (1) He's left-handed; (2) he has a cleaner, more fluid delivery and a more diverse repertoire that might wear better over time; and (3) most executives think he'll be available at a more reasonable price than Scherzer. Lester is represented by the Levinson Brothers' ACES agency, while Scherzer and his agent, Boras, passed on a reported $144 million offer from Detroit last spring.
 

 

[mloyko54]

At this point I'll be SHOCKED if Jon Lester doesn't return to the Red Sox. It seems like it's going to come down to the Cubs or Red Sox and honestly I'll be very surprised if he takes the 5-7 million more to play for a team that is still pretty far away from winning. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

For the reasons stated above, I can see the Giants being a strong player here. Pitchers park, pitchers manager, they do have money freed up this year and next (Lincecum contract ends), history of success w/o being in excessive media glare. Lester's probably received an earful from Peavy about pitching for Bochy and Righetti.
 
There's also the sense that, since the offseason began (or even before it), the prevailing thought was Lester being the center of a tug of war between the Cubs and Red Sox. Maybe he'd like to avoid that distinction altogether. The Cards apparently pulled out; the Braves are reconfiguring and might not want to spend the money; and the Yankees and Dodgers might bring baggage he doesn't want to deal with. San Francisco seems solid alternative pick.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Olney tweeted this morning that Lester is meeting with the Giants today. I would be shocked if the Giants were willing to pay Lester close what the Cubs and Sox are offering, particularly since they have some significant holes to fill in 3b and LF.

And he'd get to take his .000 BA to the plate every fifth day. Eventually his bat would run into something, not unlike the monkeys eventually typing out Shakespeare.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Crasnick on Lester v. Scherzer three weeks ago:
 

Part of that article says something I mentioned about Scherzer on this or another thread. I'd describe his delivery as bordering on violent. Any pitcher can get hurt and turn into a candidate for Tommy John, but I'd bet on on Scherzer for that before Lester.
 
"Lester's distinct (and somewhat surprising) advantage in the voting stems from three factors: (1) He's left-handed; (2) he has a cleaner, more fluid delivery and a more diverse repertoire that might wear better over time;"
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43tEWOOsfN4
 
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAb2NiWh_gs

 

[The Gray Eagle]

If Lester signs with the Giants, maybe we can trade Sandoval for him. Have to wait until June, but it would be a good trade for both teams.

 

[Otis Foster]

 
 
There's also the sense that, since the offseason began (or even before it), the prevailing thought was Lester being the center of a tug of war between the Cubs and Red Sox. Maybe he'd like to avoid that distinction altogether. The Cards apparently pulled out; the Braves are reconfiguring and might not want to spend the money; and the Yankees and Dodgers might bring baggage he doesn't want to deal with. San Francisco seems solid alternative pick.

 
You're over-thinking this. Where he goes  depends in no particular order on (1) money; (2) w/n the team is likely to compete; and (3) a good place for his family to live. He's no shrinking violet. If he opted for Pittsburgh (let's say) because he didn't want the public subject of a financial tug of war, I wouldn't want him pitching in Game 7 of the WS.

 

[radsoxfan]

This may have been discussed earlier, but one interesting note re: Lester is his newly developed mental block regarding throwing to the bases, particularly first base. He has all but stopped throwing over on pick-offs, and his defense is atrocious because of it.

Certainly not a major issue compared to his ability as a pitcher, but kind of an odd development. I wonder if the Red Sox put any (even very minor) weight on his deficiencies there.

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
You're over-thinking this. Where he goes  depends in no particular order on (1) money; (2) w/n the team is likely to compete; and (3) a good place for his family to live. He's no shrinking violet. If he opted for Pittsburgh (let's say) because he didn't want the public subject of a financial tug of war, I wouldn't want him pitching in Game 7 of the WS.

 
And you're overanalyzing what I said. SF will offer all three of those numbered items you cite. I can just imagine him being sick of the entire Red Sox/Theo melodrama, if a solid alternative existed

 

[Otis Foster]

 
And you're overanalyzing what I said. SF will offer all three of those numbered items you cite. I can just imagine him being sick of the entire Red Sox/Theo melodrama, if a solid alternative existed

 
I wasn't dismissing SF's chances at all, but I do think they also have a significant hole in their lineup with Pedro's departure and I don't have a read on their farm system. . I don't have any more sense of his priorities than anyone else here, but it's entirely possible that being with a contender is a difference maker if the numbers/years are roughly equivalent. I also wonder if the statement about a 'respectful' meeting with the suits was an overt attempt to address the stupidity of the earlier offer and to invoke his sense of loyalty for how the team treated him and his family when he was sick. I remember (I think) a Glob story quoting his parents on how appreciative they were for the RS thoughtfulness.
 
Anyway, rank speculation in the absence of corroborating evidence.Keep on truckin'.

 

[Lars The Wanderer]

 
I wasn't dismissing SF's chances at all, but I do think they also have a significant hole in their lineup with Pedro's departure and I don't have a read on their farm system. . I don't have any more sense of his priorities than anyone else here, but it's entirely possible that being with a contender is a difference maker if the numbers/years are roughly equivalent. I also wonder if the statement about a 'respectful' meeting with the suits was an overt attempt to address the stupidity of the earlier offer and to invoke his sense of loyalty for how the team treated him and his family when he was sick. I remember (I think) a Glob story quoting his parents on how appreciative they were for the RS thoughtfulness.
 
Anyway, rank speculation in the absence of corroborating evidence.Keep on truckin'.

 
Pablo. :buddy:

 

[Otis Foster]

 
Pablo. :buddy:

 
Keep on saying: "I'm too young to have dementia, I'm too young to have dementia,I'm too young......"

 

[Manramsclan]

This may have been discussed earlier, but one interesting note re: Lester is his newly developed mental block regarding throwing to the bases, particularly first base. He has all but stopped throwing over on pick-offs, and his defense is atrocious because of it.

Certainly not a major issue compared to his ability as a pitcher, but kind of an odd development. I wonder if the Red Sox put any (even very minor) weight on his deficiencies there.

 
I would think that Christian Vazquez' D and pop times might mitigate this, don't you?
 
Also hoping that the Sox consider Jose Molina in the Ross role. He is a great receiver and could be had for peanuts. He may benefit from playing 40 games instead of 80 and come back to league average offensively and it won't take much money or commitment to find out.

 

[radsoxfan]

 
I would think that Christian Vazquez' D and pop times might mitigate this, don't you?
 

Definitely should help with the base stealing. I'm not sure it will help with Lester's inability to throw to the bases after he fields a ground ball. Last year he was under handing to first whenever possible, usually after running as far as he could to the bag.

Again, minor detail in the grand scheme of things.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

...and has a relationship with Vazquez.