The Dugie Down Bronx: Red Sox trade Alex Verdugo to Yankees

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Why shouldn't there be discussion of the traded player's contentious relationship with his manager? Seems absolutely appropriate considering what went down last season.

That isn’t the discussion I am talking about. There is a contingent — usually who don’t like Cora — who are concerned (fueled by various tweeting and “reporting”) that Cora is unhealthily insinuated into the front office and is going to trample meek little Craig Breslow.

That could be true. Or we could have a healthy, functioning FO that incorporates manager input into front office moves. I have no idea, though others seem to have stronger views. What I am talking about is whether each move is going to become a proxy war over that (to me at least) unknown or unknowable issue.

 

[Trapaholic]

My takeaway is this: For the a while now, the Red Sox have been desperate for swingman pitcher types who can add something, anything, to the MLB staff. Weissert has Big League experience and will be on the 40-man. Fitts caught fire in the last half of the 2023 minor league season and there is a good chance he will see some big league innings in '24.

This trade filled a need and I am ok with it.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

One calendar year ago, the idea that Verdugo is a very good defensive outfielder would have been laughed off this board.

He was lousy defensively in 2022. At the end of the season, Cora publicly called him out, so this year he showed up in better shape and improved defensively. Will he work even harder this offseason to stay in shape? If he stayed here, I doubt that he would have.
Maybe the jolt from being traded to the Yankees will inspire him to not show up overweight and slow again. It is his contract year, so maybe.

But still, no one knows which Verdugo he will be this year. And he only has one year of control left, so if he shows up in 2022 shape, then that will be very bad news for whoever he plays for.

 

[Mantush]

Here are BAs scouting reports for the pitchers acquired. Mods feel free to delete if not allowed, but I didn't see anyone post them yet. These are all going into 2023... so as of February this year. I have a subscription to BP as well so I'll post their writeups when I have a chance.

Richard Fitts

BA Grade/Risk: 45/High

Track Record: In the early portion of his draft year, Fitts looked spectacular. His fastball had jumped from the low 90s to the mid 90 and was peaking at 97. His slider was razor sharp, too, giving him the look of a future first-rounder. He dealt with a foot injury later in the year and his stuff took a bit of a tumble. The Yankees were encouraged by Fitts' highs to draft him in the sixth round. After resting post draft, he split his first pro year between both Class A levels.

Scouting Report: Fitts' first foray into pro ball was a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act. He struggled at Low-A, where a pitcher with a Southeastern Conference pedigree should thrive. He let up a 5.01 ERA and 13 home runs in 79 innings. The script flipped after a promotion to Hudson Valley, where he went 4-0, 0.55 with 38 strikeouts against just three walks. The improvement was due in large part to a delivery alteration that allowed him to keep his front side firm so he could better drive the ball down in the zone. The change also helped his velocity increase and made his slider sharper. His four-seamer sat around 93 mph, touched 96 and posted an excellent average spin rate of 2,439 rpms. Fitts backed the four-seamer with his typical nasty slider, which sat in the low 80s and peaked at 88 while flashing plus potential. He rounds out his arsenal with a high-80s changeup that could get to average with increased usage.

The Future: Fitts could advance to Double-A in 2023, when he'll have to prove that the gains he made in Hudson Valley were sticky. If so, he could fit in the back of a rotation. If not, his fastball and slider would help in relief.

Scouting Grades Fastball: 55. Slider: 60. Changeup: 45. Control: 45

Their writeup in the article of the trade:

Fitts works primarily with two pitches—a four-seam fastball that sits around 94 mph and a sweeper slider at around 84 mph—which he threw a combined 85% of the time in 2023. The Yankees tweaked the slider early in the season, moving it away from a bullet shape. He also mixed in a changeup and cutter, each in the high 80s, but the Yankees wanted Fitts to focus most of his energy on finding a consistent slider shape. The Yankees had a few goals for Fitts in the coming year. First, they wanted him to continue developing his changeup to make it larger part of his repertoire. They also wanted to see Fitts add a touch more velocity to get it closer to the mid 90s and improve the posture during his delivery to keep him from drifting toward the first-base side and causing his pitch shapes to deteriorate.

Greg Weissert

BA Grade/Risk: 40/Low

Track Record: After being drafted out of Fordham in 2016, Weissert moved deliberately through the system and didn't reach the upper levels until his fourth season as a pro. He took a leap forward in 2021 and built on it in 2022, when he won the International League's Pitcher of the Year and made his big league debut. He was part of the team's roster in the American League Championship Series but did not get into a game.

Scouting Report: Weissert's game is built predominantly around two pitches: a mid-90s sinker and a filthy sweeper slider in the low 80s that rates as the best in the system. The pitch mix fits the horizontal style of attack the Yankees prefer from their pitchers. He'll also mix in four-seamer in the same velo band as his two-seamer, as well as a low-90s cutter and mid-80s changeup, but the two-seamer and slider accounted for nearly three quarters of his pitches in the minor leagues. Both pitches could get to plus with upgraded control and command, which was needed after five walks in 11 big league innings.

The Future: Weissert will get a long look at the big league bullpen come spring training. If he can throw more strikes, he can be a middle-innings reliever who sinks and slides his way into outs.

Scouting Grades Fastball: 60. Slider: 60. Cutter: 40. Changeup: 30. Control: 40

Their article in the write up of the trade:

Weissert is a big league-ready reliever who has spent parts of the last two seasons in the majors. His signature pitch is his slider, which at one time ranked as the best in the system. He complements the sweeping breaker with four- and two-seam fastballs, as well as a cutter and changeup. The latter two pitches were each thrown roughly 6% of the time. He’s an easy plug-and-play option for the Boston bullpen.

Nicholas Judice (Draft Profile)

School: Louisiana-Monroe Source: 4YR

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 22.3
At 6-foot-8 and 230 pounds, Judice is high-waisted and incredibly projectable. In his fourth season with Louisiana-Monroe in 2023, Judice posted a 3.74 ERA in 53 innings, mostly out of the bullpen, with a 29.3% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate. Judice throws two pitches, a fastball and slider, and can run his fastball into the mid 90s with little effort. His hard slider is a plus offspeed pitch with sharp break. He has loose, whippy arm action and attacks from a low, three-quarter slot. Given his size, it’s a tough at-bat for opposing hitters. It’s easy to envision an uptick in velocity with the 6-foot-8 righthander given the weight he is likely to put on and once he gets his lower half more engaged in his delivery.

Writeup:

Judice was taken in the eighth round of the 2023 draft out of Louisiana-Monroe, where he struck out 66 hitters in 53 innings out of the bullpen in his draft year. Evaluators inside the organization had tabbed Judice—who has yet to make his pro debut—as a sneaky arm to watch entering 2024. He’s a physical righthander at 6-foot-8 with remaining projection and was a candidate to be stretched out into a starter’s role. Judice’s fastball sat in the low 90s, averaging around 93, but could tick way up and touched 100 mph in college 2023. His slider got whiffs at a 35% clip in 2023 and was singled out as the best secondary pitch in the Yankees’ 2023 draft class.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Wasn’t he injured in 2022, though? Though there was a knee injury that impacted his defense.

 

[Max Power]

They seem to be winning a shitton of games and their TV ratings are very high. And it looks like they'll be getting a new stadium in Tampa proper, so...pretty, pretty good?

But strong work in comparing the Boston baseball area to that of Tampa.

Their playoff attendance was an embarrassment to the sport. That's not all due to the stadium and location. The Rays get rid of their players before they become expensive and never build long term connections with the fans. This very thread still has whining about the Mookie trade from 4 years ago, yet that's exactly what would have happened to him if we were a Ray. There needs to be a balance between continuity and roster churn, regardless of how many games you win.

 

[The Filthy One]

Wasn’t he injured in 2022, though? Though there was a knee injury that impacted his defense.

He played most of 2022 with a broken toe.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

Verdugo takes with him about 95% of SoSH trade proposal content. What will we do with ourselves now?

I've shaken my head at enough Houck/Crawford/Pivetta trade scenarios to not be worried that people here will have plenty of ammo for

I've slept on this trade and listened to Breslow's comments this morning. It struck me that, despite trading a good fielding right fielder, the Red Sox currently have the option to field a Duran - Rafaela - Abreu outfield. One could argue that is the most atheltic outfield in baseball with plus to plus plus defenders at all three spots.

Improve the defense in house, save $9 AAV, jettisoned a bad managerial relationship, grab some intriguing arms that desperately fill the AAA-MLB Shuttle, add a right handed bat who can play the corners.

What am I missing?

You’re missing that Duran is a minus defender and Abreu is a question mark in Fenway’s big right field.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Their playoff attendance was an embarrassment to the sport. That's not all due to the stadium and location. The Rays get rid of their players before they become expensive and never build long term connections with the fans. This very thread still has whining about the Mookie trade from 4 years ago, yet that's exactly what would have happened to him if we were a Ray. There needs to be a balance between continuity and roster churn, regardless of how many games you win.

The lesson to be learned is that you keep your superstars. Mookie was a superstar.

You do not extend, for big money, utterly average players. Verdugo was an utterly average player.

Verdugo is exactly the wrong kind of player to keep long term.

 

[Auger34]

Their playoff attendance was an embarrassment to the sport. That's not all due to the stadium and location. The Rays get rid of their players before they become expensive and never build long term connections with the fans. This very thread still has whining about the Mookie trade from 4 years ago, yet that's exactly what would have happened to him if we were a Ray. There needs to be a balance between continuity and roster churn, regardless of how many games you win.

Verdugo doesn't move the needle like Mookie Betts. Not even close. People who don't pay much attention to baseball were immediately up in arms about Betts.
Very few people who casually follow the Red Sox will care that they traded Alex Verdugo

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I've shaken my head at enough Houck/Crawford/Pivetta trade scenarios to not be worried that people here will have plenty of ammo for

You’re missing that Duran is a minus defender and Abreu is a question mark in Fenway’s big right field.

Duran in left is absolutely not a minus defender. He was exactly average in center according to statcast last year.

 

[chawson]

HR preening doesn't bother me at all, if you hit one then by all means admire it.

But for a corner OFer in Fenway who is not a speed guy to have THAT little power is really unacceptable production.

Verdugo's problem was that he didn't do anything well. His BA was meh, his SLG was meh, his OBP was meh. His power was poor. His defense was meh until last year. His baserunning was an abomination in the sight of the Lord. And his professionalism and attitude were bad given the conflicts with his manager.

He played hard and seemed to care about winning. He had a couple of big hits in the 2021 postseason. That's just about all of his positives.

Totally agree. We've had low ISO guys in the outfield corners for too long.

Yoshida's final numbers are also fairly low but he had a .200+ ISO from mid-April through mid-July and I'm still hopeful we see more of that guy.

You’re missing that Duran is a minus defender and Abreu is a question mark in Fenway’s big right field.

In his brief time in the outfield Abreu was a +2 DRS in 169 innings. That's quite good if it holds up — Verdugo was +9 in 1170 innings.

Total Boston outfielders, 2023 (Fielding Bible defensive runs saved):
Verdugo: +9 in 1170 innings
Kiké: +2 in 87
Abreu: +2 in 169
Refsnyder: 0 in 435
Rafaela: 0 in 117
Tapia: -1 in 176
Yoshida: -4 in 713
Duvall: -4 in 692
Duran: -6 in 731

 

[soxhop411]

Not being flipped by NYY
View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1732419775366615136?s=46

 

[YTF]

One calendar year ago, the idea that Verdugo is a very good defensive outfielder would have been laughed off this board.

He was lousy defensively in 2022. At the end of the season, Cora publicly called him out, so this year he showed up in better shape and improved defensively. Will he work even harder this offseason to stay in shape? If he stayed here, I doubt that he would have.
Maybe the jolt from being traded to the Yankees will inspire him to not show up overweight and slow again. It is his contract year, so maybe.

But still, no one knows which Verdugo he will be this year. And he only has one year of control left, so if he shows up in 2022 shape, then that will be very bad news for whoever he plays for.

I'm more than OK with this deal, but in an effort to be fair to the player, wasn't Verdugo dealing with some sort of foot issue for much of 2022?

 

[Manuel Aristides]

Their playoff attendance was an embarrassment to the sport. That's not all due to the stadium and location. The Rays get rid of their players before they become expensive and never build long term connections with the fans. This very thread still has whining about the Mookie trade from 4 years ago, yet that's exactly what would have happened to him if we were a Ray. There needs to be a balance between continuity and roster churn, regardless of how many games you win.

You're going to need to show your work to get me to believe that the Rays (any team) would be more popular with more continuity. That's just, like, your opinion, man. I think it's more likely that two decades of atrocious play in a hideous stadium that nobody can get to in a town mostly full of transplants kept them from developing a fan base and they've not had many years to overcome the bad start, AND then they played those games at 3pm on weekdays. You think Evan Longoria sticking around woulda changed that? I kinda doubt it. People show up for good teams, not because they remember the right fielder from four seasons back.

 

[YTF]

I've slept on this trade and listened to Breslow's comments this morning. It struck me that, despite trading a good fielding right fielder, the Red Sox currently have the option to field a Duran - Rafaela - Abreu outfield. One could argue that is the most atheltic outfield in baseball with plus to plus plus defenders at all three spots.

Improve the defense in house, save $9 AAV, jettisoned a bad managerial relationship, grab some intriguing arms that desperately fill the AAA-MLB Shuttle, add a right handed bat who can play the corners.

What am I missing?

They're not the second coming of the Killer Bs, but they could be fun to watch. That said, athleticism aside, I'm not yet sold on Duran.
At times he looked much better in the OF in that he seemed to be getting better jumps on the ball and taking better routes. Other times, not so much. Is he still young enough that he can improve? Perhaps, but honestly I'm OK with moving on from him. There are also the anxiety/depression issues that he's been pretty open about. Both he and the team might benefit from him playing in a situation that is not the Fenway fishbowl.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

I'm more than OK with this deal, but in an effort to be fair to the player, wasn't Verdugo dealing with some sort of foot issue for much of 2022?

Sure he was banged up for the early part of the season. But if that was the only issue, then I highly doubt Cora would publicly call him out for being too heavy.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/10/red-soxs-alex-cora-alex-verdugo-is-the-player-who-needs-to-take-the-biggest-leap-in-2023.html

“Yeah, he hit for average, but he can be a lot better baserunning, defensively,” Cora said. “He’s getting to that area in his career that’s, ‘Who is he gonna be?’ We talked about this with (Andrew Benintendi) a few years ago, right? You see the player he has become. (Benintendi) has become a better defender, a good hitter. I think Verdugo has the chance to hit for power, hit for average, but he can impact the game running the bases and playing defense.”
Verdugo has split his season between left field and right field but the numbers have not been encouraging in either spot. He ranks in the 12th percentile of all defenders in outs above average and in the 40th percentile in outfielder jump. His sprint speed, which averaged 27.5 ft/s in 2020 and 27 ft/s in 2021, is down to an average of 26.8 ft/s in 2022. By all metrics, the 26-year-old has been slower this year than in the past.
Cora noted that Verdugo spent much of the early part of the season banged up after fouling a ball off himself but also was heavier than in recent years. The Red Sox list him at 6-feet, 192 lbs. Cora said Verdugo tried to add some mass in order to hit for more power this season.
“He put on some weight, not in a bad way, but he got bigger, kind of like in the same narrative that happened with (Benintendi) in 2019,” Cora said. “Get bigger to hit for extra-base hits. In that sense, it cost him other aspects of the game.”

After 2022, the team specifically, publicly pushed him to change his offseason workouts to try to get him back to running faster. You don't do that if the only concern was an early season injury.

There have been some questions about Verdugo’s off-season and pregame routines. The Red Sox plan to push the outfielder to prepare the right way this winter before suiting up for Team Mexico in next year’s World Baseball Classic.
“We’re going to push him hard this off-season to get back to playing faster, to playing quicker,” Cora said. “I think, athletic-wise, he can do that. This off-season, obviously, with him playing for Mexico, his off-season stuff is going to be different. He’s going to be in better shape heading into spring training. I think this is a guy who we envision to be an impact player, not only in the batter’s box but also on the other side of the ball.”

 

[TomRicardo]

If the Yankees flip Verdugo to SD as part of a Soto deal, this place will explode.

I keep reading this but I don't get it. He would not be a big piece of the deal. The Yankees would have to give up really solid prospects to wrap with him for the Padres to grab him.

 

[pdub]

I am hoping this deal happened because we are pushing to trade for Soto, but I don't want to disappoint myself too much, haha. Work ethic aside, Verdugo was decent enough offensively and defensively that I would have given him another year because of his age.

 

[YTF]

Sure he was banged up for the early part of the season. But if that was the only issue, then I highly doubt Cora would publicly call him out for being too heavy.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/10/red-soxs-alex-cora-alex-verdugo-is-the-player-who-needs-to-take-the-biggest-leap-in-2023.html



After 2022, the team specifically, publicly pushed him to change his offseason workouts to try to get him back to running faster. You don't do that if the only concern was an early season injury.

I hardly see that as a "calling out" and never claimed that the team had no other issues with Verdugo, but I still consider it to be fair to point out the injury he was dealing with.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

To the flipping Verdugo talk, I think the idea is more than Verdugo can play LF or RF and would stay on the Yankees, thus freeing up prospects or controllable pieces to send to SD.

Just to make it up, sending something like Pereira and Thorpe to SD for Soto. They then go with Verdugo, Judge and Soto in the OF in NY (with the big RF and small LF) but then make it Soto, Judge, Verdugo on the road (because of Soto's defensive limitations).

I'm not sure that would "work" but acquiring Verdugo to allow prospects to be moved as the more likely idea.

 

[BringBackMo]

Their playoff attendance was an embarrassment to the sport. That's not all due to the stadium and location. The Rays get rid of their players before they become expensive and never build long term connections with the fans. This very thread still has whining about the Mookie trade from 4 years ago, yet that's exactly what would have happened to him if we were a Ray. There needs to be a balance between continuity and roster churn, regardless of how many games you win.

I don't necessarily disagree with this view, but even the most stable franchises don't achieve continuity by holding on to *all* their players. They identify a core and build around it. It's the core that remains stable over several years, not the entire roster. I think Verdugo is a somewhat better player than SJH does, but I absolutely agree with him that he's not a player you want in your core. He's slightly above average and about to get expensive. Perfect time to move on from him. Let's see what the Sox do with Casas and Bello. Those are players you want in the core, and I suspect that they will seek to sign them to extensions. That, to me, is the smart way to achieve stability.

 

[lexrageorge]

I am hoping this deal happened because we are pushing to trade for Soto, but I don't want to disappoint myself too much, haha. Work ethic aside, Verdugo was decent enough offensively and defensively that I would have given him another year because of his age.

The problem then becomes the likelihood of losing him for nothing. I never saw him as a long term piece here.

 

[BaseballJones]

In the Yankee thread it looks like Verdugo is staying and they're getting Soto for a package with King as the headliner. Their lineup is going to be ferocious.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

I hardly see that as a "calling out" and never claimed that the team had no other issues with Verdugo, but I still consider it to be fair to point out the injury he was dealing with.

Saying this in public is as much of a calling out as you are ever going to get from Cora:

"he can be a lot better baserunning, defensively,”
“He put on some weight, not in a bad way, but he got bigger"
"“We’re going to push him hard this off-season to get back to playing faster, to playing quicker"

 

[RG33]

Verdugo was about as average/repalceable as you can get to me. They built up some pitching depth for the MLB team and system, got rid of a duplicative LHH bat, and will hopefully upgrade both defensively and with some RHH power. I’m all for this trade.

 

[JM3]

I agree with this take on Verdguo. I actually was hoping he'd be extended.

However, even with that backdrop, what I really liked was that once the decision was made NOT to extend him, they dealt him - and actually got something that is a legitimate starting pitching prospect - in return.

I have no idea if it will work out. I have really no idea if Fitts is objectively good (though relatively, at least to the Red Sox starting pitching prospects, he's "good"), but I like that a move was made to actually try and do something to improve the rotation long term. Which I think makes it totally unlike every move I can recall Bloom making with the exception of the Workman for Pivetta deal.

As @JM3 and others have mentioned, it's not at all a Bloom deal. It's the kind of deal I was hoping Bloom would have made more of (see 2022 with Eovalidi, Wacha, anything for Strahm, JD Martinez, having moved Sale if that was indeed possible or 2023 with Paxton, Duvall and Turner). He actually did a decent job when he tried to get controllable pitching (Pivetta), the problem was, excepting signing Monegro in 2020, that was really the only time he accomplished it.

Even when he did move short term vets he wasn't planning to extend, he never seemed to get back pitching (Mookie, Vazquez, Renfroe) and when that was coupled with not bothering to expend real draft capital on pitching, nor acquire controllable pitching in trades, nor spend on the FA market to get controllable pitching, it's no shock that at this point the Sox have a rotation with one legitimate top half pitcher, one that is a reasonable bet to be a 4/5, and (before Fitts) one top prospect that had even a handful of games at the upper levels of the minors. Also, I think it's notable that none of Bello, Crawford, Houck, Perales or Gonzalez were acquired by Bloom.

It's like there was an organizational decisions that not only defense but more amazingly starting pitching was totally irrelevant and not worth acquiring.

I did say that, & it's mostly true, & the org would be in a better place now if Bloom made more of those trades - but it isn't that dissimilar to the Benny trade.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

With Dugie's defense, isn't there the Fenway LF penalty (applicable to Yoshida or whoever is out there) along with his defense? He could really end up a good player in the Shit-Hole and hurting the Sox. I was fine with trading him, after hoping for an extension in mid July when he was looking like a deserving All Star, and perhaps finally maturing into his potential, as he's still relatively young and could have 4-5 good seasons still in him, but he pooped down the stretch which seems to be his MO now.
I think he likely could have been part of a package to Seattle to get a SP from them but I don't see it now.
I do take this as a vote of confidence in Abreu in LF (where I thought he looked good and stats seem to back it up) and a Duran/Rafaela/Yoshida CF and LF platoon which can work with Rafaela also platooning at 2B or SS (depending on where they want Story) with Valdez or Reyes.*
*My feeling though is that Rafaela will stick in CF for the most time as I think that's where he seems best suited long term (even considering Bleis and Anthony in the long term who I see more as corners) and they'll end up with someone outside the organization for a 2B (hopefully a Milwaukee package?).
Sign YY, make a deal for Burnes and Adames (and include Mayer for that)

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I did say that, & it's mostly true, & the org would be in a better place now if Bloom made more of those trades - but it isn't that dissimilar to the Benny trade.

You really don't think so? (Genuine question, not meant to be argumentative).

Beni had two years of control left and had produced a 4.8bWAR and 2.8bWAR season for the Sox. Verdugo had one left and had never produced (in Boston) a bWAR above 2.6.

Winckowski had never pitched above A+ when he was acquired and his k rate was low (as was his k/bb rate). In 10 starts at the A+ level Winckowski had a 3.19ERA with a 1.211whip; 6.2 k/9 and 2.18 k/bb ratio. He was younger (21) but pitching at lower levels, and not nearly as well.

(I'm choosing not to include Franchy Cordero here because simply making it a move for "just" Winckowski makes it look better for Bloom and I'm trying to be kind. I'm also trying to think of who the Yankees equivalent to Cordero would be, maybe Jake Bauers? I'd like this deal less if Jake Bauers were in it because that would imply that Breslow thought Jake Bauers was worth acquiring.)

Fitts put up a similar miniscule 5 starts at A+ but with a 0.55ERA, 0.606whip; 10.4 k/9 and 12.67 k/bb ratio. Followed of course by the 27 starts, 3.48ERA, 1.140whip, 9.6 k/9 and 3.79 k/bb ratio.

Beni was a better player with more control than Verdugo. Fitts is a more highly regarded prospect (at least as a starter) than Winckowski. If this had been the best the team could do for 2 years of Verdugo (and if Verdugo were call it 20% better than he is and had shown the ability to be nearly a 5 bWAR player) I'd hate the trade. But of course, those things don't apply to Verdugo, so I like the trade.

 

[johnlos]

I've slept on this trade and listened to Breslow's comments this morning. It struck me that, despite trading a good fielding right fielder, the Red Sox currently have the option to field a Duran - Rafaela - Abreu outfield. One could argue that is the most atheltic outfield in baseball with plus to plus plus defenders at all three spots.

Improve the defense in house, save $9 AAV, jettisoned a bad managerial relationship, grab some intriguing arms that desperately fill the AAA-MLB Shuttle, add a right handed bat who can play the corners.

What am I missing?

MFY™️ and TAF™️

Also Verdugo is suddenly not a PITA and is going to miraculously double his career high in HRs

 

[Sin Duda]

Going with the Lorena Bobbit defense. Daring.

Incisive comment, well played.

 

[Sin Duda]

Have you seen his spray chart overlapped on Yankee stadium? He might have hit 30 last year had he played for the Yanks.This is a great pick-up for the MFY, which, by definition, makes it a bad move for the Sox.
If the Sox wanted a GM who’d dump a RF with a much needed skill set for prospects - couldn’t they have just kept Bloom?

Wow, 30! I count about 20 FOs and 2Bs that would have been HRs over 2 seasons and 324 games. Since only 81 games are at Yankee Stadium, that would equate to 5 additional HRs, which sounds about right to me.

 

[JM3]

You really don't think so? (Genuine question, not meant to be argumentative).

Beni had two years of control left and had produced a 4.8bWAR and 2.8bWAR season for the Sox. Verdugo had one left and had never produced (in Boston) a bWAR above 2.6.

Winckowski had never pitched above A+ when he was acquired and his k rate was low (as was his k/bb rate). In 10 starts at the A+ level Winckowski had a 3.19ERA with a 1.211whip; 6.2 k/9 and 2.18 k/bb ratio. He was younger (21) but pitching at lower levels, and not nearly as well.

(I'm choosing not to include Franchy Cordero here because simply making it a move for "just" Winckowski makes it look better for Bloom and I'm trying to be kind. I'm also trying to think of who the Yankees equivalent to Cordero would be, maybe Jake Bauers? I'd like this deal less if Jake Bauers were in it because that would imply that Breslow thought Jake Bauers was worth acquiring.)

Fitts put up a similar miniscule 5 starts at A+ but with a 0.55ERA, 0.606whip; 10.4 k/9 and 12.67 k/bb ratio. Followed of course by the 27 starts, 3.48ERA, 1.140whip, 9.6 k/9 and 3.79 k/bb ratio.

Beni was a better player with more control than Verdugo. Fitts is a more highly regarded prospect (at least as a starter) than Winckowski. If this had been the best the team could do for 2 years of Verdugo (and if Verdugo were call it 20% better than he is and had shown the ability to be nearly a 5 bWAR player) I'd hate the trade. But of course, those things don't apply to Verdugo, so I like the trade.

I was more referring to the concept than the details. Bloom moved on from an OF they didn't think really fit going forward & who was coming off a -0.4 fWAR/-0.1 bWAR (truncated 2020) season, following a 1.8 WAR (both f & b) season where he had a 100 wRC+. It could certainly be argued that Bloom sold low, but it's hard to say that Benny had a ton of value at that point. Verdugo has certainly been more consistently competent, even if he didn't have the high highs. Last year was a 2 fWAR, 2.6 bWAR season for Verdugo.

Each had played 4 real seasons + 2020 at the time they were traded. Benny had 8.5 fWAR and 10.1 bWAR . Verdugo had a total 9.1 fWAR and 11.1 bWAR in his 5 seasons. So yes, Benny had an extra year of control, but it was somewhat debatable how much value those 2 years would actually have as all of his underlying data had gotten pretty bad, including red flags like his sprint speed decreasing from 87th percentile to 43rd percentile.

But anyway, even if we take it as a given that 2 years of Benintendi had significantly more value than 1 year of Verdugo, Bloom turned Benny into Franchy, 3 pitchers, & another guy who they actually tried to convert to be a pitcher. & Breslow traded Verdugo for 3 pitchers.

Franchy obviously didn't work out & neither did the guy they tried to convert to pitcher who they then cut. But if Richard Fitts has a career that it looks like Winck is heading toward, this trade is probably a win. & the other 2 pitchers they got in that trade are Grant Gambrell (#32, & probably also the answer to the question of which current Red Sox MiLB player not on the 40-man is most ready to be a 9th starter for an MLB team) & Luis De La Rosa (#53), both of whom still have some upside.

So I absolutely stand by the point that they are similar concepts of trades, and that Bloom would have been better off if he traded more guys with limited time left with the franchise for interesting pitchers - regardless of how we think either Bloom or Breslow did value-wise on those trades.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Have you seen his spray chart overlapped on Yankee stadium? He might have hit 30 last year had he played for the Yanks.This is a great pick-up for the MFY, which, by definition, makes it a bad move for the Sox.
If the Sox wanted a GM who’d dump a RF with a much needed skill set for prospects - couldn’t they have just kept Bloom?

If Abreu continues to hit and Rafaela can hit enough to support his elite defense and/or they bring in a new player, then how needed is that skillset really, especially for one year only?

 

[Sin Duda]

...
Trading him makes PERFECT sense. He's EXACTLY the sort of player you get rid of early enough to get a good return for. He's never going to be anything more than a league-average player.

Personally I'm glad he's gone. Hated watching him play. Perhaps the worst baseball instincts I've seen around these parts since Steve Lyons.

Ditto

 

[chrisfont9]

Apologies if this was covert but is Weissert a Rule 5 guy? Are the Sox rostering him?

 

[JM3]

Apologies if this was covert but is Weissert a Rule 5 guy? Are the Sox rostering him?

He's already on the 40 & the MLB R5 just happened.

White Sox took Drohan & Cardinals took Fernandez.

 

[chrisfont9]

He's already on the 40 & the MLB R5 just happened.

White Sox took Drohan & Cardinals took Fernandez.

Yeah, just catching up. OK then. It sounds like he was on the Yankees' 40 too.

 

[nighthob]

Chaim Bloom: “Alex, hey, it’s Bloomy calling. Yeah, I know, I know. Water under the bridge, man. No worries. Look, I have an idea.”

Alex Cora: “Yeah? What’s the idea?”

CB: “You’re pissed they didn’t move you into the front office, and hired this clown with no track record instead. I’m pissed they forced me to rebuild on the cheap then threw me under the bus when the Average Fan got pissed. I have a plan to pay all these motherfuckers back in one move!”

AC: “Yes! Tell me your plan!”

CB: “If there’s one thing I know how to do, it’s completely screw the Red Sox by making catastrophic trades where I give up great talent for a bunch of another team’s crap prospects. And if there’s one thing you know how to do, it’s bitch and moan until you get what you want. Together we are amazing at infuriating the Average Fan.”

AC: “That’s true.”

CB: “OK, so with my intimate understanding of the Sox system, I’ve run a few calculations and determined that the worst possible deal the Red Sox can make right now is trade Alex Verdugo to the Yankees for a pile of middling prospects. The Average Fan is going to HATE that fucking deal because Verdugo is an inexpensive all star, the prospects all suck, and the new guy has demonstrated no ability to work with pitchers. Plus, you hate Verdugo, so you get rid of a total headache.”

AC: “OK I see where you’re going here but there’s one big problem. The new guy LOVES Verdugo. He’s an all star and he’s cheap. He’s never going to agree to a deal like that.”

CB: “Ahhhh, now here’s where the real genius of my plan comes in. He’s new, kind of meek, easy to push around, just like I was. So you pitch a fucking fit with this guy. You cajole, and twist his arm. You convince him that this is the right move. He wants to be liked, so he’s gonna go along with it, trust me. He’s going to trade Alex Verdugo for three bullshit prospects And that is going to PISS OFF the Average Fan. It will ruin the entire season, and doom him by extension.“

AC: “But Bloomy, it’s only Dec 6. The off-season has barely started. How could getting him to make this horrific, brain-dead trade possibly doom the entire season?”

CB: “Have you met the Average Fan?”

I would snarkily reply that Average Fan writes posts like this, except that they don’t. They, rightly, don’t give a shit. Talk radio denizens may be tearing their hair out, but the reality is that Verdugo was an average player that wasn’t going to be extended beyond next year. And they already have in house replacements for him. But, do you know what they do need? Arms. Lots and lots of arms. For an average OF about to hit free agency they got a guy that could be a mid rotation starter, a bullpen arm, and a lottery ticket. That’s a pretty good deal.

 

[LogansDad]

Yeah, just catching up. OK then. It sounds like he was on the Yankees' 40 too.

Correct. I believe (though I could be mistaken) that R5 eligible players were under a trade freeze since the finalized lists were put in.

 

[jon abbey]

Correct. I believe (though I could be mistaken) that R5 eligible players were under a trade freeze since the finalized lists were put in.

Yep, that's right, unfrozen now that the draft happened today.

 

[BringBackMo]

I would snarkily reply that Average Fan writes posts like this, except that they don’t. They, rightly, don’t give a shit. Talk radio denizens may be tearing their hair out, but the reality is that Verdugo was an average player that wasn’t going to be extended beyond next year. And they already have in house replacements for him. But, do you know what they do need? Arms. Lots and lots of arms. For an average OF about to hit free agency they got a guy that could be a mid rotation starter, a bullpen arm, and a lottery ticket. That’s a pretty good deal.

In case the irony I was going for in that post didn't come through, I believe that you have nailed the situation and I am in complete agreement with you.

 

[chrisfont9]

In case the irony I was going for in that post didn't come through, I believe that you have nailed the situation and I am in complete agreement with you.

I'd have been fine with nothing in return (if nobody wanted him), the chance to find out what Abreu can do is value enough. Of course, he was likely to entice someone to give up something and this sounds like about as much as we could have expected.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

You don't have to squint to see a "decent" player in Verdugo. Last 5 years bWAR: 3.0, 2.1, 2.3, 1.1, and 2.6. Career ops+ of 105. That's better than "decent". He will never be great (except in 2024 when he lights it up in the Bronx) and he will always seem like a disappointment due to being part of the Mookie trade. But he's more than a "decent" major league player. He's solid.

But with that said, I think Abreu can do just as well, if not better, for a lot less money.

"Solid" is better than "decent"? I personally think 5% better than average is just about the definition of "decent," so I'm not disagreeing with you. Just thought that was funny.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

It just so happened to be the first move, so it’s magnified. Let’s see what happens over the next few weeks before we question their priorities. So far, Breslow is living up to the idea of being bold. Hopefully, in a good way.

Yes. This is Breslow allowing himself to be influenced by Cora, who almost certainly was behind all the “Verdugo needs to be traded” talk prior to this move. I had been hoping new leadership in the GM office might have put that to bed, but it seems like maybe the opposite has happened.
So yeah, this team has seemingly hurt their chances of competing next season because their much respected manager couldn’t get along with a guy who, from the sound of it, might have been late a couple of times (honestly, if there was that much more drama than that wouldn’t we have heard about it?).And they did this while helping their arch-rivals chances of bouncing back from a hugely disappointing 23’.
For Sox fans, the only good part of the 23’ season is that the Yanks also sucked. In response Breslow appears to be building ever more for some nebulous post-24’ future, while simultaneously contributing to the Yanks prospects of turning it around next year.
That is not what Red Sox fans were expecting after the firing of Bloom. Veterans for prospects trades are what Bloom was known for, and now the first two trades of the new guy is more of the same.
And the idea that a far more expensive Lourdes Gurriel is somehow a good solution to the hole Breslow just created is nonsense. To be clear, the Sox need two plus-fielders in the OF as their RF has always required the type of range normally only needed in center. Gurriel was an average LF in the past year, but has been subpar (in LF) for the rest of his career. He might have been a great fit had they decided to trade Duran for pitching and wanted to commit to Rafaela in center, as Gurriel is still probably a better fielder than Yoshida (who could DH), but he certainly can’t replace Dugie in Right.
I guess this means that they plan to stick with Duran in Center and move Rafaela to Right. But that would almost certainly mean another year of subpar OF defense as Duran/Gurriel is unlikely to be that much better than Duran/Yoshida, even if Rafaela can replicate Dugie’s stellar fielding from last year. Either way, it seems OF defense will not be Breslow’s focus.
Obviously, it’s unfair to judge his broader off-season plan so early in the off-season, but this is definitely not the start I was hoping for…

FIRE Breslow! Fire Breslow! I volunteer to lead the chants at the caravan in Springfield. LOL

 

[BringBackMo]

"Solid" is better than "decent"? I personally think 5% better than average is just about the definition of "decent," so I'm not disagreeing with you. Just thought that was funny.

Yeah but he's 6 percent better than average. He's useful.

 

[kazuneko]

If Abreu continues to hit and Rafaela can hit enough to support his elite defense and/or they bring in a new player, then how needed is that skillset really, especially for one year only?

I’m not at all confident that Abreu can handle right field in Fenway, certainly not like Dugie handled it last year. People seem to write off Dugie as easily replaceable because they apparently don’t value what he provided to the team defensively.
Last year this team was the second worst defensive team of the Statcast era and Dugie was their best defensive player. RF defense was literally their only defensive strength (until the end of the season when Story came back). And now, the beginning of the rebuild starts with getting rid of that strength.
They could of easily flipped this and created one of the best defensive OFs in baseball by keeping Dugie, committing to Rafaela in CF and moving Duran to LF. Instead they traded Dugie to the fucking Yankees for a bunch of lottery tickets.
So yeah, I’m not happy with that, but again, I fully understand it’s early in the off-season so it’s not as if I’m calling for Breslow’s head. One thing I do worry about though is that this ownership has a long history of encouraging their GM’s to act with autonomy and then firing them for doing just that. So yeah, ballsy move to go full Bloom with a trade to the MFY for his first big move, but he should know that that very type of ballsyness is what got Bloom fired.

 

[GPO Man]

FIRE Breslow! Fire Breslow! I volunteer to lead the chants at the caravan in Springfield. LOL

It’s “Fire Breeeslow.”

 

[kazuneko]

I've slept on this trade and listened to Breslow's comments this morning. It struck me that, despite trading a good fielding right fielder, the Red Sox currently have the option to field a Duran - Rafaela - Abreu outfield. One could argue that is the most atheltic outfield in baseball with plus to plus plus defenders at all three spots.

Improve the defense in house, save $9 AAV, jettisoned a bad managerial relationship, grab some intriguing arms that desperately fill the AAA-MLB Shuttle, add a right handed bat who can play the corners.

What am I missing?

Is Abreu a plus defensive RF in Fenway? I’m not seeing that but if someone like JM3 is willing to pull up some type of minor league data that suggests that I’d love to see it. Duran might be athletic but he’s not a CF. He has horrific instincts in the OF and looks like a deer caught in the headlights every time he gets near an OF wall. He was among the worst CF in baseball on OAO. So what I’m seeing is that they traded the best defensive player on their 23’ team despite defense being their single biggest weakness, and supposedly their goal is to compete next year.

 

[nighthob]

The lesson to be learned is that you keep your superstars. Mookie was a superstar.

You do not extend, for big money, utterly average players. Verdugo was an utterly average player.

Verdugo is exactly the wrong kind of player to keep long term.

To add to this, Verdugo is the kind of player that small and mid market teams target in free agency with the sort of $14-$18 million AAV contracts that make them unattractive in the long term when you're trying to stay below the luxury tax line while paying superstars market rate.