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The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by Jed Zeppelin, Jul 1, 2018.

  1. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    3,139
    Any discussion of a slow-footed center's value that doesn't mention the playoffs is inherently flawed, particularly with a team like Milwaukee that has championship aspirations.

    If Brook gets played off the floor in the playoffs (not saying he will, but there are many blueprints for good teams to do so), he'll get more money on his next deal, but it won't be huge.

    Hypothetical: your favorite team just signed Nikola Vucevic for 4 years, $X million. What value of X has you cringing, and what value is a fist pump?
     
  2. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    2,390
    Doesn't it depend on whether 38% on 7 attempts per game is real? If it is, he's a different guy than he was before, not a market undervaluation. And it might be real, based on his FT.
     
  3. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    Getting back to the other guy people are proposing to Milwaukee, why would the Bucks "upgrade" from Bledsoe? Bledsoe is apparently healthy and having another very good season. He may be an expiring contract, but the Bucks should be concerned with winning *this* year.
     
  4. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    He's not a different guy. He averaged 5.2 threes in 16-17, and 4.4 threes last year for the Lakers. This is who Brock Lopez has been for 3 years now.

    The 38% might be a bit high, but he's been at 35% the previous 2 years.
     
  5. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    7 @ 38% is a different guy IMO. Perhaps calling it a leap is better. Either way, he is better for spacing than he was.
     
  6. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

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    Probably not the right place for it, but I thought the Lakers were foolish to let Brook Lopez walk last summer and that seems even more relevant now. Think about how much better that team would be with him and Julius Randle than KCP.
     
  7. Swedgin

    Swedgin Member SoSH Member

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    Getting to back Memphis, I liked Indy as a destination for Conley but now with Oladipo injured I assume they don't make a big move.

    Lowe and Jackie Mac discussed Detroit as a destination for Conley on his latest pod. Seems like a good fit. Detroit can build the salary portion of the deal around Jackson's contract. A rebuilding Memphis has no reason to care about having cap space in the next year or two. So other than the value that they could have in being spun off to a third team, Memphis should not put a premium on getting expiring contracts back. The salary match just needs to be for fewer years than Conley and not put them over the tax.

    The Grizzlie's primary focus should be on what assets are being sent along with the matching salary. The Pistons future picks have about the right level of value for Conley. He is not worth a potential top 5 pick. But something that has an expected range of 8-20, seems right. Detroit could throw in Stanley Johnson or Kennard, as a second draft/change of scenery guy.
     
  8. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Jackson is only making 17. Conley is at 30.5. Still need an additional 10 million coming back from DET. Not impossible, but that likely means Jon Leuer at 10 mill a year fro the next two years. That is 27 million of bad players coming back from DET though. The assets attached better be good
     
  9. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Maybe I'm crazy but I think Jamal Murray is currently a better basketball player than Mike Conley and that gap is only going to grow.

    Does Gary Harris still have trade value to non playoff teams? He's 24 and already getting paid. Harris+Plumlee+ Picks would work for Conley. Something like Harris+Plumlee+Lyles+Porter+Picks work for Conley and Green. I'm just not sure how much value Gary Harris has to a rebuilding team. I also think Murray and Conley would be fine playing together since Murray isn't really a PG.

    But the more I look at Denver, the more I think they should be trying to trade one or two of their guards for a wing, not another guard. They have 5 guards who could start in the NBA in Murray, Harris, Morris, Beasley and Barton. Beasley and Barton can also play SF but they give up a lot of size. I guess there is a slim chance that is by design and they are building around Jokic with great guards. I think it's more likely the Nuggets have just been insanely good/lucky drafting since 2013 and just ended up with a lot of guards by pure chance.

    I'm also not sure they'd want to commit to Mike Conley when they will have enough room to sign a max guy this off season if they let Millsap and Lyles walk.
     
  10. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    He might be a little different this year than the last 2, but he's clearly a completely different guy than when he entered the league. In his first 6 seasons, he attempted a total of seven 3 pointers in 342 games. The following 2 seasons, he attempted 24 in 145. So in his first 487 games, he attempted 30 3 pointers. In the first 7 games of 2016-17, he attempted 33. For the year 2016-17, he attempted 387. Last year, 325. So far this year, 304. In those 3 years, he shot .346, .345 and currently .382. For that period combined, 362/1019, .356. He's also been a great mid range shooter his entire career. Even if he's not a .382 guy, he has a large enough sample size to suggest he's at least close to a league average 3 point shooter.

    He's averaging more 3's per game this season than he took in the first 6 seasons of his career combined.

    Of course, Marc Gasol attempted 56 3 pointers in his first 8 years. Then, during the same off season as Brock Lopez, added the 3 point shot. He attempted 268 in 16-17, 320 last year and 243 so far this year. He went from shooting 0 a game to 3.6 to 4.4 to 4.1. Shot .388, .341, .342 in those years respectively for a total of 281/781 .360.

    I actually really like the comparison of these 2 players. Gasol is clearly the superior passer but outside of that, they are similar players.
     
  11. Swedgin

    Swedgin Member SoSH Member

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    If Memphis wants to open up space in 2019-2020 for some reason, Ish Smith and Stanley Johnson get it in lieu of Leuer. Detroit does not lack for salary filler.
     
  12. Bad Penny

    Bad Penny Member SoSH Member

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    Another part of the spacing equation is Brook's range. He shoots 28' to 30' shots consistently. That additional 5 or 6 feet makes a difference.
     
  13. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    This is very true. Brook is a smart (Stanford) guy. He recognized early on that his slow windup release prevented him from getting up as many attempts as he could if he were an extra 2-3’ behind the arc.
     
  14. PedroKsBambino

    PedroKsBambino Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    21,359
    True, though if one imagines the choice was LBJ + KCP or Randle + Lopez that is also an easy choice.
     
  15. In my lifetime

    In my lifetime Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    A good night as Minn beats the Lakers pushing LA a game and a half down from the Clippers, while Sacramento is now tied with the Timberwolves for 12th worst.
     
  16. PedroKsBambino

    PedroKsBambino Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    OK, it's a 'cross the streams' game tonight---Memphs vs Sacto. We rooting for Memphis here, given current standings?
     
  17. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Definitely.
     
  18. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    I say yes, 100%. Sacramento will be playing hard all season while Memphis—even if they would prefer to send the pick this year—will be focused on how they can move their best players and develop their young players. Even if they can't trade anyone I'd expect Conley to be shut down to preserve his health. And Memphis is just one a huge spiral overall that will be hard to overcome...7-24 since they somehow started 12-5.

    I've been meditating on this question all week. Even if it brings us just a little closer to getting the Memphis pick, we have to root for the highest upside no matter what.
     
  19. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    3,139
    Yup, and every slot the Kings slide down increases their odds to jump into #2-4 significantly. They're in #12 now: just sliding to #11 would up the chance from 4.9% to 7.4%, while moving to #8 (only 3.5 games "ahead" of them) brings it to 20.3%.
     
  20. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    29,995
    Yup. Memphis all the way and it's not even close. They've opened up a little cushion on the #9 slot. That pick is going to roll over. Sac still has a chance of falling a few more spots so every loss is big.
     
  21. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    I need a 12 game losing streak by the Kings right now so badly.
     
  22. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I’ve got Under-34 wins for Memphis this season. Go SacTown!!!! :drunk:
     
  23. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    Compromise: Memphis wins but the worst brawl since the Palace sees multiple key pieces on both teams suspended for 30 games.
     
  24. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Deal!! Can you get some Spurs suspension for me while you’re at it? They are my other team on the fence.
     
  25. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Memphis really does blow something awful. Loses to Sacramento by 3. Good news is Clips came back to beat Bulls.
     
  26. ishmael

    ishmael Member SoSH Member

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    Huge game for Celtics pick watchers tomorrow as SAC goes on the road to LAC for an early afternoon start.

    Let's hope this is an "LA nightlife undefeated" affair and that the Clips also take care of business against the Hawks (Monday) and LeBron-less Lakers (Thursday) to build some momentum heading into the All Star break.
     
  27. Imbricus

    Imbricus Member SoSH Member

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    1,110
    Yeah, that pick ain't conveying this year. Maybe not next year either. Which is good, I guess, unless they're losing to Sacramento.
     
  28. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    On cue.....the Grizzlies beat the Oladipo-less Pacers tonight.
     
  29. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Clippers are beating the Kings 96-88 with 6 minutes left.
     
  30. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    101-90 now. Clips are hitting a lot of tough shots.
     
  31. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Good work, Clippers. Big game on Thursday against Lakers before they embark on a brutal Feb with 9 of 11 road games.
     
  32. NomarsFool

    NomarsFool Member SoSH Member

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    So, what are we rooting for here? Personally, I think we should be hoping to spread these picks out a bit, and I don't see nearly as much value in picks outside the top 10. So, is it:

    1) We want Sacramento to lose as much as possible, but not end up with the #1 pick (usually unlikely, anyway, so not too concerned)
    2) We want Memphis to finish in the bottom 8 so that the pick goes into '20 or '21, right? Assuming that they still continue to suck and the pick gets even more value to be 1-6 and unprotected in the future
    3) We want LAC to finish in the lottery this year (and next) so that I assume it becomes unprotected in 2021? A tall wish, seeing as they are a good bit out of the lottery now.

    If the NBA were the NFL, you'd see bundling picks to move up - but does that happen all that often in the NBA? It seems like usually teams are much more interested in getting that top 5 draft player than they are in getting two 15-20 players.
     
  33. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    The Clippers pick is lottery protected all the way through and turns into a #2 if it doesn't convey. And a far future #2 at that. You want the Clippers to make the playoffs either this year or next, because if it doesn't convey in 2020 then Boston gets a second rounder in 3-4 years.
     
  34. NomarsFool

    NomarsFool Member SoSH Member

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    3,006
    Ouch. Okay, very good to know.
     
  35. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    1,894
  36. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Yet another reason why AD to the Lakers at the deadline would really suck...
     
  37. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    I can't remember if it's good or bad for you guys, but the Grizz just blew a 25-point lead with 6 minutes left in the 3rd quarter and lost to Denver.

    Good for Sox and Rocks, for sure! :)
     
  38. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    29,995
    Wow, I was totally about to whine about this game. Memphis losing is good for Celtics, as it increases the potential value of the pick since Celtics don’t want it to convey this year ina relatively mediocre draft.
     
  39. HowBoutDemSox

    HowBoutDemSox Member SoSH Member

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    3,154
    [​IMG]
     
  40. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Its fine. Put a fork in Memphis.

    We don't want their pick to convey this year
     
  41. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    2nd night of a road back to back for Denver too.
     
  42. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Looks like the Clippers are going to lose at home to the Hawks.
     
  43. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    That is a terrible f’ing loss!
     
  44. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    We want clippers to win, sacto to sink like a rock, and Memphis to finish exactly 8th.
     
  45. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Clips were on a B2B unfortunately. Still would have been nice to seem them pull it out.
     
  46. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    Wow, after the Celtics game I was tuning in a bit to start the 4th and was frustrated by the Nuggets' lackadaisical play and turned it off—just seemed like not their night. But I guess it is much more not the Grizzlies' season.
     
  47. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    6,464
    I'd rather Memphis be 5th (Totally safe) or 6th (pretty assuredly safe). Remember, the lottery can see teams jump over them to bump them down 2, 3, even theoretically 4 spots now this year.

    But yeah, we all want SAC to lose every single game so badly I figure there's a crazed Murph or Sully out there who's going to go Tonya Harding on Buddy Hield or DeAaron Fox. Which would be totally tragic and I would totally counsel against it... if it would keep them out past the start of next season. :)
     
  48. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    This post is prosecution exhibit A
     
  49. HowBoutDemSox

    HowBoutDemSox Member SoSH Member

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    Aren’t there four lottery drawings this year with the tweaked format, not three, such that the only way for the Memphis pick to be totally safe would be bottom four going into the lottery? Fifth could still drop to ninth.
     
  50. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Yes, I made that point clear in my post.

    The average expected drop in position from 5th (just by adding the top-4 probabilities for 6th through 14th) is 1.53 spots. The conditional probability of a 5th-place-finish dropping to a 9th-place draft pick is *does quick monte carlo estimator*... 4.1%. So about 1 out of 25 times. I'll stick to my descriptor of "theoretically". Spreadsheet available if anyone wants to tinker with it, just PM me your email.

    Oddly, Tankathon's Pick Odds sheet says it's only 0.6% that the current 5th place team ends up picking 9th. So they differ from me by a lot.
     

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