Dismiss Notice
Guest, I have a big favor to ask you. We've been working very hard to establish ourselves on social media. If you like/follow our pages it would be a HUGE help to us. SoSH on Facebook and Inside the Pylon Thanks! Nip

The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by Jed Zeppelin, Jul 1, 2018.

  1. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,338
    Maybe the C's can give up a 2nd round pick in 2023?
     
  2. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    20,459
    I would not be so quick to presume.

    Memphis surely wants to keep pick #1, 2, or 3, should they win it. They might be happy to convey pick #6 or #7 or whatever to eliminate their future obligation to Boston (and the encumberance on their picks), but Ainge would probably rather push the pick forward.

    So I don't think Danny would be willing to accept a change in the protections without getting a significant concession from Memphis in exchange.
     
  3. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,228
    I thought this talk began in a joking manner. I can’t imagine the CBA allows teams to go back and amend an already completed trade even if both sides agreed to do so.
     
  4. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,486
    Yeah, you'd probably have to have some consideration go one direction in the form of a player.
     
  5. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    20,459
    It would just be structured as another trade. Memphis owns the right to its 2019 1st if it falls from 1 to 8; it can trade the right to that pick to any team including Boston.
     
  6. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,228
    I suppose the league would approve this.....so long as all other cap restrictions are met. I can’t imagine Ainge not wanting to hold that picks upside down the road however as this was the same upside he wanted at the time of the trade.
     
  7. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

    Messages:
    6,962
    taking the trade side of the argument for a second, it's simple risk transfer: Ainge has some risk that the eventual pick comes in #10, 12, 14 this year, possibly even higher next year if another high lottery player joins the squad and has an impact. He would be trading the time deferral value of his current arrangements (usually all else equal, you'd want your value upfront, but this is an odd case where he'd probably rather have it in 2021), in exchange for certainty of getting a high value in the pick this year. He was only ever getting one pick, and that pick was only ever going to be high lottery if it rolled over this year, rolled over next year (in a tight 1-6 window), and then if 2021 saw them suck hard again for a 4th year in a row. Trading away that inverse-time-value-of-money attribute in order to limit his risk would not give away his upside, either - he'd still be getting a high lottery pick.

    I doubt he'd agree to a modification that still kept protections on the eventual pick, though. None of this 1-3 nonsense. Give me an unprotected now, or maybe give it to me in 2021.
     
  8. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,939
    Any discussion of current vs future value of the pick has to account for its status as a trade piece. Ainge said some years ago that he likes picks because they always have trade value, whereas a drafted player starts losing value immediately. You have to pay them. The clock is started on having to pay them a lot more (this part is really bad for a rebuilding team). The player may not develop. A trading partner may not like the player or need help at that position. And so on. The one downside is that GMs typically feel that they need instant gratification because they know their job depends on nailing the trade (Of course, if you're forced into trading a Garnett/Davis level player, your time is probably coming no matter what).

    With all that in mind, I have no doubt that Ainge is more interested in rolling this over and maintaining the ability to provide a trading partner with the Holy Trinity of high value trade pieces if needed:
    1. Upside now: A lotto pick in 2019
    2. Upside later: A lotto pick in 2020/21
    3. A young but known quantity: Brown/Tatum
    Not saying they will or would have to ship all of the above out, but just for argument's sake that is what I am looking for as an opposing GM, especially with a 2019 draft that is looking just okay.
     
  9. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    30,678
    Agreed. And early indications are that front offices aren't crazy about the 2019 draft. Maybe that changes in the coming weeks but I think Ainge would like to move the pick for that reason alone since he has no chance at the top guys with the Memphis pick. Better to move the pick to 2020/2021 when he has a chance to go higher and the draft pool may be considered better.
     
  10. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,168
    I think the primary value in a rollover is the trade value, this year the Grizzlies pick would be guaranteed to go in the roleplayer section of the draft (although I think there are going to be a few decent starters that go in the 9-20 range). But obviously the rolled-over pick has the promise of being unprotected in '21, making it a much easier sell to the fans of whatever team gets it.

    Boston's best case, of course, is that they defy the odds and win a pick in the 2-4 range with the Kings, as that basically makes the Unibrower a Celtic.
     
  11. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    30,678
    Agree on the trade value front. That MEM pick is a major asset if it rolls over to 2020/2021. Pretty funny that this pick is likely to provide more value than the SAC pick that we lusted over for so long. The SAC pick looks to have about a 5-10% chance of landing in the top 4. Not great odds but certainly possible.
     
  12. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,168
    I am putting my faith in the power of positive drinking that we beat the odds, because even Memphis #1, Brown, and Reddish/Morant is a package the Lakers can't hope to top.
     
  13. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,228
    There is also the added value of making the high lottery selection while protecting yourself from the repeater tax as you then can replace one of the veterans who are on a second contract. Rookie scale at $5-6m over paying say Jaylen $20m for majority of or similar production while flipping the latter for pick(s) down the road to potentially repeat the process as Ainge did with Brooklyn, the Clippers, and Memphis. That’s the optimal Dynasty Domino right there while balancing your Chief/Indian ratio.
     
  14. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,486
    This is something I'd love to discuss. Danny MUST be starting to get antsy about the end of the pick bonanza. He drew it out a bit longer with the Tatum trade, but now it's time to load up again.
     
  15. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,168
    Yeah, I think that Hayward's destined to be the odd man out if Boston lands Davis, there's no way they can afford the Irving/Davis/Hayward trio without hitting heretofore seen only by the Thunder levels of luxury tax. From Boston's point of view getting Tatum on his first max is a much better deal than Hayward's in the long term (even when Hayward is fully healthy again).
     
  16. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    30,678
    You also have to wonder about Horford if Davis is brought in. Obviously would be a good problem to have to figure out.
     
  17. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,168
    I'm assuming that Horford would absolutely be gone if Boston landed Davis.
     
  18. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,228
    Yes, I fully expect Horford to opt-out this summer and re-sign here if no Davis deal is made or to cash in someplace like Milwaukee or one of the LA's if a Davis deal does get done here.
     
  19. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,486
    Irving/Davis/Tatum/Smart would be a hell of a future...
     
  20. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,005


    this could be significant
     
  21. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,486
    It's happening.gif
     
  22. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    27,379
    Gasol may get moved though there is no clear fit out there that I can see (Lakers? Clippers? I would also add in the Knicks but they would have to fire their coach). Conley makes sense for a lot of teams in terms of skill set but his contract is a tough pill to swallow.

    Memphis may be listening but I am not sure there are great deals out there for them given the players respective ages, injury histories and contracts.
     
  23. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,005
    How about Miami for Gasol in exchange for Whiteside and a young asset/pick?
     
  24. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,939
    Boy do I hope so!
     
  25. Lazy vs Crazy

    Lazy vs Crazy Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,334
    Is there any way Wallace doesn't give Gasol to the Lakers for nothing, he opts out, and re-signs to a below market deal to play with Lebron? Because I feel like that's a lock.
     
  26. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,486
    Conley has two years after this--that's not a franchise-killer if he gets hurt, so I could see some teams taking the risk. I'd have to list them out though: there aren't a ton.
     
  27. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,228
    This is going to be interesting as both players have limited markets. Even in today “no-position” lineups each of these players......only play one position. Eliminate all rebuilding teams, eliminate Conley from playoff contenders with an established 1 and eliminate Gasol from playoff contenders with an established 5. I don’t have time to narrow it down right now but I’m guessing each only have 2-3 realistic destinations.
     
  28. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,043
    Interesting. If I'm Memphis, I try like hell to be as good as possible this year so the pick conveys and it's only the 12th pick or so. So...good. I hope they trade both of them.
     
  29. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,486
    Conley:
    Sixers, Pacers, Heat if they're down on Dragic (oof w that 2021 pick), Spurs. Clips and LAL won't happen because they need to preserve FA space. Sixers and Pacers make the most sense imo.

    Gasol:
    Nets, Heat. He's really hard to move--Conley at least can let some already-good teams tell themselves a story about how he can take them over the top.
     
  30. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    30,678
    Go Spurs Go!

    Conley for Pau/Murray/filler

    Who says no?
     
  31. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,838
    UPDATED BELOW
     
    #531 benhogan, Jan 22, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2019
  32. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,612
    Conley to the Pacers would kinda suck.
     
  33. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,486
    That makes the most sense to me: good young core, no real chance to add anyone big in FA. Conley on the Pacers is sneakily a really good team.
     
  34. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

    Messages:
    32,545
    Not sure how the Pacers get that done. Evans/Bogdanovic and few other smaller salaried guys?

    After Oladipo, no one makes more than like $13M and Conley is like $30M, so it takes multiple guys to get there, and most combos I try actually lower the Pacers expected wins.
     
  35. Swedgin

    Swedgin Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    248
    Rebuilding teams which either think they are ready to be done building (Phoenix) or who have been rebuilding forever with no end in sight (Orlando) and lack a pg also make sense as destinations. Granted Conley does not fit the time frame as the rest of the roster but can provide 1) veteran leadership and 2) adequate lead guard play so that a team can actually assess the rest of the assets on its roster.
     
  36. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    30,678
    Good catch. Forgot to add “filler”. Not convinced SA wants any part of that deal but his window of effectiveness kind of lines up with that of DeRozan and Aldridge.
     
  37. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,838
    UPDATED

    I like your thought process. Money doesn't work, unless filler = Paddy Mills

    Pau + Mills + Murray for Conley (age 31-33 seasons), who says no? It also lines up with DeRozen/Aldridge and Pop, who can ride off into the sunset in 2.5 seasons.


    Memphis game plan:
    1. Move Conley's 3yr deal. Also, try to move Kyle Anderson's 4yr deal. Memphis can have 2yr contracts while they suck this year and next. Gasol may stick around the next 2seasons.
    2. Tank the rest of this season. Get top 5 pick in 2019 draft
    3. Full 76er tank next season. Get top 1-3 pick in 2020 draft
    4. By the summer of 2020 they have cap room to sign a fringe All-Star OR a very good player.
    5. Hope JJJ has developed into an All-Star by 2020-21 season
    6. Hope their top picks have worked out.
    7. Make the playoffs by 2020-21 season.
    8. Stick the Celtics with a bottom half 1st round pick in 2021 draft
     
    #537 benhogan, Jan 22, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2019
  38. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    20,459
    I'm not sure whether a deal is feasible, but the natural fit for Conley might be New Orleans.
     
  39. Swedgin

    Swedgin Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    248
    The Pacers have Joseph and Collison as expirings. They don’t need 47 million worth of point guards. Packaging one of Joseph or Collison along with Evans and O’Quinn gets them close to Conley’s salary.
     
  40. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,838
    Evans + Collison (40% 3Pt + assists leader) + O'Quinn still doesn't get it done money wise. Plus that's a fair amount of talent on short deals to give up for 1player to a long, expensive deal coming off an injured season.

    Pacers don't really roll like that. They have a great season going, why toss out key pieces to help Memphis begin their rebuild?
     
  41. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    27,379
    I can't see the Spurs doing that. They love Murray and Mills is one of Pop's guys. I love Conley too and he would be a great fit there.

    Conley on Denver would be kind of interesting. Murray and Milsap work though the way Murray has played of late probably gives Denver serious pause.

    As for Conley to the Pacers, Young plus Evans for Conley works but Indiana will have to sweeten that pot with some picks. It really isn't a seamless fit and remember that the Pacers have Kevin Pritchard calling the shots - he does not have the reputation of someone who can easily get things done.
     
  42. Jeff Van GULLY

    Jeff Van GULLY Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,243
    With AD out a month, I can’t see the Pels trading a pick now. But Dell Demps is a horrible GM so you never know.
     
  43. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,939
    Much like how the current stretch of schedule was decisive for the Grizzlies’ overall outlook this season, February will be that for the Kings. First 5 at home, next 4 on the road, last 2 back home:

    PHI
    SA
    HOU
    MIA
    PHO
    DEN
    GS
    OKC
    MIN
    MIL
    LAC (this is actually 3/1 but close enough)

    Notable that their March and April then feature two games each vs. Boston, Dallas, and New Orleans.

    Edit: Just saw AD news. Pels may be too far out to threaten the Kings by then.
     
  44. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,838
    Spurs could pull back Murray and hand over another asset to sweeten it. Money works with Pau + Mills.

    Conley is much, much better than Paddy Mills. Pau is done.

    Tony Parker was also a Pop guy. It's a business if the move makes sense they wouldn't hesitate in moving Mills.
     
  45. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,168
    It's why I could see Hayward being part of a three way trade, say someplace like Indiana with Myles Turner/filler being added to Jaylen Brown/2019 draftee/Memphis pick to make the Davis deal work.
     
  46. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,612
    Would the Lakers want Conley?
     
  47. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,838
    The Lakers could add Conley for Rondo + KCP + Lance.

    Use Lonzo, Ingram, Kuzma, Hart as trade bait in the offseason.

    Ha, bosox79, great minds think alike.
     
  48. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,168
    Memphis isn't looking for a salary dump, they want to add prospects for a rebuild. And LA can't spare any until the Unibrower situation works itself out.
     
  49. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,168
  50. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    27,379
    I am sure that Magic and Pelinka would charter a jet to fly Rondo, KCP and Stephenson to Memphis. The problem is that they would have to package picks away and presumably they would prefer to save those for a bigger fish than Conley. I mean, the other option is to include one of the kids in Ball, Ingram or Kuzma to land him. As nighthob notes, they don't want to trade any of those guys or really any picks of value while Davis is in play

    I actually feel like Gasol would be a better fit in LA and there may be more of a match for Memphis if they value Zubac. Him, Chandler (who cannot be traded until right at the deadline - February 5th) KCP and Stephenson works. The Lakers would have to throw in some sort of pick too.

    Once again, these two guys don't have many obvious landing spots given the Grizzlies assumed needs in a return package. It will be fascinating to see how it all plays out.
     

Share This Page