The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

[HomeRunBaker]

Conley:
Sixers, Pacers, Heat if they're down on Dragic (oof w that 2021 pick), Spurs. Clips and LAL won't happen because they need to preserve FA space. Sixers and Pacers make the most sense imo.

The Sixers have an All-Star on a rookie deal running their offense in Simmons along with a secondary perimeter creator in Butler. I don't see Conley as a fit there at all. The Pacers don't matchup with salary or assets either.

The one team who I feel would be an ideal fit is Denver......they have the youth, expiring deal, and salaries to make this happen. They have a couple different ways to go about it with Murray/Barton/Plumlee for Conley/JaMychal Green (Green to take Plumlee's minutes as you'd need his salary) or Murray/Millsap/picks for Conley+.....or include Barton for Green's expiring swap.

 

[nighthob]

Memphis would probably want Porter, but I think Conley/Green might actually give them a really good shot against the Warriors.

 

[benhogan]

Memphis would probably want Porter, but I think Conley/Green might actually give them a really good shot against the Warriors.

I guess you feel Memphis is in the drivers' position here? Losing the length/size of Conley's deal seems tricky. But Spurs, Lakers, Denver seem plausible/possible.

here's a Den/Mem fake deal:

Green + Conley FOR
Milsapp (exp) + Plumlee (exp) + 1 of Morris or Beasley

IMO would be a great deal for Memphis. Out of the long term Conley commitment and land a young, cheap, quality guard.

It's a decent deal for Denver. I suppose Hernangomez/Lyle/Green pick up the minutes lost by Milsapp/Plumlee upfront.

 

[the moops]

I am unsure why Conley is considered a long term commitment. He only has two more years after this one.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I am unsure why Conley is considered a long term commitment. He only has two more years after this one.

I think he means that some teams are looking solely for a 30-game rental without having a commitment even for next year much less the year after on top of that. I'd put someone like the Lakers as a team looking to open up FA space over the summer in this category...….as well as a luxury tax team willing to take a one-year hit this year to replace an injured player, someone like Houston if Paul were done for the year.

 

[CreedBratton]

The Sixers have an All-Star on a rookie deal running their offense in Simmons along with a secondary perimeter creator in Butler. I don't see Conley as a fit there at all. The Pacers don't matchup with salary or assets either.

The one team who I feel would be an ideal fit is Denver......they have the youth, expiring deal, and salaries to make this happen. They have a couple different ways to go about it with Murray/Barton/Plumlee for Conley/JaMychal Green (Green to take Plumlee's minutes as you'd need his salary) or Murray/Millsap/picks for Conley+.....or include Barton for Green's expiring swap.

I would not trade Murray for Conley no matter what.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I would not trade Murray for Conley no matter what.

Long term I wouldn't either but if Denver is looking to GFIN over the next 2-3 years, which is not that short of a window in this day and age, then Conley is the much better choice.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I guess you feel Memphis is in the drivers' position here? Losing the length/size of Conley's deal seems tricky. But Spurs, Lakers, Denver seem plausible/possible.

here's a Den/Mem fake deal:

Green + Conley FOR
Milsapp (exp) + Plumlee (exp) + 1 of Morris or Beasley

IMO would be a great deal for Memphis. Out of the long term Conley commitment and land a young, cheap, quality guard.

It's a decent deal for Denver. I suppose Hernangomez/Lyle/Green pick up the minutes lost by Milsapp/Plumlee upfront.

I really think any Denver deal would have to include Murray. Their contract terms match (not salaries but length of commitment), their skill sets are somewhat redundant and, most importantly, he gives Memphis a good young cost controlled player to build around. While I am not sure Denver makes this deal, Murray for Conley presumably saves the Nuggets from having to deal valuable picks.

 

[lovegtm]

I really think any Denver deal would have to include Murray. Their contract terms match (not salaries but length of commitment), their skill sets are somewhat redundant and, most importantly, he gives Memphis a good young cost controlled player to build around. While I am not sure Denver makes this deal, Murray for Conley presumably saves the Nuggets from having to deal valuable picks.

Just feels like a big overpay for Conley, given the tightness of the market for him. If Denver were going the Conley route, I'd rather see them deal their own picks for Conley, and then move Murray to somewhere like Phoenix or Orlando, who presumably would pay a decent price for him.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I really think any Denver deal would have to include Murray. Their contract terms match (not salaries but length of commitment), their skill sets are somewhat redundant and, most importantly, he gives Memphis a good young cost controlled player to build around. While I am not sure Denver makes this deal, Murray for Conley presumably saves the Nuggets from having to deal valuable picks.

What valuable picks? Those late 1st rounders? So valuable. There is 0 chance Denver trades Murray for Conley.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I doubt Gasol and Conley really net Memphis much of a return other than salary relief and maybe some non lotto 1st.

 

[nighthob]

I guess you feel Memphis is in the drivers' position here? Losing the length/size of Conley's deal seems tricky. But Spurs, Lakers, Denver seem plausible/possible.

The Lakers have zero interest in contracts that run past this year. Or maybe to 2020 if they think they can be included for Anthony Davis this summer. Gasol with his opt out would be more their speed.

Denver, on the other hand, is nearly at Golden State's level, having a Harris/Murray/Conley backcourt rotation would make them really tough to beat. So, yeah, I think the Nuggets would probably prefer to hold on to Murray and that the Grizzlies would probably prefer the lottery ticket that might pay off big time, but not impact their record in what would be a tanking year.

 

[lovegtm]

I doubt Gasol and Conley really net Memphis much of a return other than salary relief and maybe some non lotto 1st.

You're 100% correct, and it's still funny that Danny turned significantly older and worse than Gasol and Conley into Kyrie, Tatum, Brown, and a late lotto.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

What valuable picks? Those late 1st rounders? So valuable. There is 0 chance Denver trades Murray for Conley.

Two things.

In any hypothetical deal for Conley, Denver is bringing in a player who will take significant touches away from a guy like Murray. My only point is that if Denver is making this move, they may be inclined to deal a player with redundancy and who is a known entity (good offensive player but limited defensively) versus dealing away even a late first which has a high variance in terms of value.

Also, I will be clear - I don't think Denver does this deal either but I think Memphis would ask for Murray regardless. I am not as certain as you that its a zero chance though as Murray is a good player but isn't untouchable imho. Denver has a shot to make some noise over the next few seasons and I can see them looking to add a solid veteran PG.

 

[TripleOT]

Denver sends out Plumlee, Barton, Michael Porter, and a pick, if necessary, and get Conley. If they are high on Michael Porter Jr. getting fully healthy, that could be a guy to rebuild around. Porter and JJJ is a nice young duo.

 

[TripleOT]

You're 100% correct, and it's still funny that Danny turned significantly older and worse than Gasol and Conley into Kyrie, Tatum, Brown, and a late lotto.

Hopefully the final haul on the PP/KG trade will be Kyrie, Tatum, Brown,and a high lotto if the ping pong ball goes the Celtics' way this spring. Even with a late lotto pick, it was a remarkable haul. If Memphis chose to more on from those two last offseason, they would have had a more robust market.

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

Hopefully the final haul on the PP/KG trade will be Kyrie, Tatum, Brown,and a high lotto if the ping pong ball goes the Celtics' way this spring. Even with a late lotto pick, it was a remarkable haul. If Memphis chose to more on from those two last offseason, they would have had a more robust market.

How quickly you’ve forgotten the immortal James Young.

 

[lovegtm]

How quickly you’ve forgotten the immortal James Young.

He's still only 23--I don't want to jinx his glorious comeback.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

How quickly you’ve forgotten the immortal James Young.

You know if they had drafted Jokic he would have been pissed.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Denver sends out Plumlee, Barton, Michael Porter, and a pick, if necessary, and get Conley. If they are high on Michael Porter Jr. getting fully healthy, that could be a guy to rebuild around. Porter and JJJ is a nice young duo.

Memphis with Conley is looking to win now and by moving Plumlee, which may be necessary for salary matches, they would likely need JaMychal Green included which would then require Denver to include more value. I don’t feel Memphis has low leverage here as they don’t have to trade Conley. I’m guessing it will take an aggressive offer to get the Nuggets to deal Conley since the offer for Gasol will likely be a low-1st.

 

[the moops]

Conley to MIL would be a scary proposition. Snell + Bledsoe works with money, but not sure what MIL would have to throw in for MEM to have interest. Maker? Brogdon?

 

[moondog80]

How quickly you’ve forgotten the immortal James Young.

Isn’t he just about the only Kentucky pick in recent times that flopped?

 

[nighthob]

Memphis with Conley is looking to win now and by moving Plumlee, which may be necessary for salary matches, they would likely need JaMychal Green included which would then require Denver to include more value.

Denver has two trade exceptions large enough to absorb Green outright (Chandler to Philly and Faried to Brooklyn), so all that they need is around $25 million to match up with Conley, which is covered by Plumlee, Barton, and Porter. Heck, with the two trade exceptions Memphis can even pitch in some extra wing depth for Denver should they want it.

 

[the moops]

Yea. There have been some not exciting picks who went high (Noel, Lyles, MKG) but nobody totally flopped like Young

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Conley to MIL would be a scary proposition. Snell + Bledsoe works with money, but not sure what MIL would have to throw in for MEM to have interest. Maker? Brogdon?

Interesting is the Milwaukee would appear to be a potential Gasol landing spot as well. Megadeal?

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Isn’t he just about the only Kentucky pick in recent times that flopped?

Depending on your definition of "flop" (relative to draft position): MKG, Brandon Knight, Archie Goodwin, Terrence Jones, Marquis Teague, Trey Lyles, Skal Labissiere, and Malik Monk have all fallen somewhat short of expectations.

 

[Koufax]

James Young waived by the Wisconsin Herd.

 

[moondog80]

Depending on your definition of "flop" (relative to draft position): MKG, Brandon Knight, Archie Goodwin, Terrence Jones, Marquis Teague, Trey Lyles, Skal Labissiere, and Malik Monk have all fallen somewhat short of expectations.

Yeah, I probably made my "Kentucky players do well in the pros" a little too strongly. I think it's true, and I think Young was a bigger flop relative to his position than all of those guys, but he's not the only one that could be considered a disappointment.

 

[nighthob]

Most of those guys were disappointments before they got to the NBA, which is why most of them were mid first round picks and lower. I mean how disappointing could Labissiere be as a 28th pick? You can't turn every end of the first pick into the Timelord after all.

 

[benhogan]

I doubt Gasol and Conley really net Memphis much of a return other than salary relief and maybe some non lotto 1st.

Agreed. Salary relief would be a home run for Memphis. The sooner they get on with their tank job, the better for them. Then again they misread the trade market last year and didn't turn Tyreke Evans into anything at the deadline.

Sitting in limbo with Gasol/Conley is just playing into Danny's hands. So I'd be thrilled if they think they'll be getting Jamal Murray in a Conley deal. On second thought Morris or Beasley is probably too generous

 

[nighthob]

Gasol is an expiring deal, there is literally no salary relief to be had there.

 

[Swedgin]

Gasol is an expiring deal, there is literally no salary relief to be had there.

Pretty sure he has a player option.

 

[nighthob]

Right, a player option that he's 100% sure to exercise so that he can sign a last long term deal. In other words, an expiring deal.

 

[cheech13]

Right, a player option that he's 100% sure to exercise so that he can sign a last long term deal. In other words, an expiring deal.

I don't think it's 100% that he'll opt out. In fact, I think there's a better than average chance he opts in. He's due $26MM next year. I'm not sure he can make that up on a long-term deal.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Pretty sure he has a player option.

Yes but like Horford he’s almost assured of opting out to add a couple more guaranteed years at good money.

 

[nighthob]

I don't think it's 100% that he'll opt out. In fact, I think there's a better than average chance he opts in. He's due $26MM next year. I'm not sure he can make that up on a long-term deal.

He'll get a lot more on a four year deal he signs this summer after an effective campaign than he'll get next summer when he's a year older. And if he gets injured next year, that number plummets.

 

[the moops]

Is someone signing him for 4 years though? He will be 34 in a few days

 

[cheech13]

He'll get a lot more on a four year deal he signs this summer after an effective campaign than he'll get next summer when he's a year older. And if he gets injured next year, that number plummets.

You are a lot more optimistic on Gasol's market than I am. He's 34 and he's having a relatively average season. I think 2 years and $25-30MM is best case scenario, maybe a third year with partial guarantees. I don't see a lot of potential suitors for him.

 

[nighthob]

No, Gasol isn't going to get stuck with a barely over-MLE deal in a summer where half the NBA has arranged for cap space. Unless he wants to go ring chasing, which is a real consideration. But do you know what he has to do to go ring chase? So, there remains zero sense to trading an expiring deal for "salary relief". They're going to want something for the rental.

 

[benhogan]

He'll get a lot more on a four year deal he signs this summer after an effective campaign than he'll get next summer when he's a year older. And if he gets injured next year, that number plummets.

And if he gets injured with half the season left this year, he'll opt-in. Some teams may not want to write that possibility.

fair enough, Gasol should probably get Memphis a little more than salary relief

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Hard to guess at what the market will bear, but I personally think a team would have to be (a) nuts; or (b) desperate to hit the salary floor to sign Marc Gasol to anything over the MLE. Dude turns 35 next season; has a history of fragility and a body type that is unlikely to age well; is not a good perimeter defender in the age of space-and-pace; and is an inefficient scorer and mediocre rebounder.

By way of comparison, Brook Lopez — not nearly as slick of a passer as Gasol, but a comparably good defender, better shooter, and four years younger — signed last offseason for the vet min. Has the market for traditional centers on the wrong side of 30 really blown up that much since then?

 

[lovegtm]

Hard to guess at what the market will bear, but I personally think a team would have to be (a) nuts; or (b) desperate to hit the salary floor to sign Marc Gasol to anything over the MLE. Dude turns 35 next season; has a history of fragility and a body type that is unlikely to age well; is not a good perimeter defender in the age of space-and-pace; and is an inefficient scorer and mediocre rebounder.

By way of comparison, Brook Lopez — not nearly as slick of a passer as Gasol, but a comparably good defender, better shooter, and four years younger — signed last offseason for the vet min. Has the market for traditional centers on the wrong side of 30 really blown up that much since then?

Agree. The Grizz's management dysfunction forced them to hold him too long, and now their asset is shit. Conley still has decent value, not least because he's younger and easier to fit into a modern team.

 

[Swedgin]

No, Gasol isn't going to get stuck with a barely over-MLE deal in a summer where half the NBA has arranged for cap space. Unless he wants to go ring chasing, which is a real consideration. But do you know what he has to do to go ring chase? So, there remains zero sense to trading an expiring deal for "salary relief". They're going to want something for the rental.

After a good start, Gasol's play has declined significantly. Since December 1, he's averaging 12 and 7, shooting 28.6 from three. The defense, which he is supposed to be anchoring has a Def Rating of 108.4. It is far from a given that Gasol is going to earn more in a new deal signed this summer (notwithstanding a favorable cap environment) than the 25.6 million, plus whatever he can get in the summer of 2020, he will earn by opting in.

The league has a surplus of adequate/replacement level centers, which is what 33 year old Gasol looks like lately. Maybe a chance of scenery rejuvenates him. But the version of Gasol who has been on the court for the last two months, is not going to be a hot commodity on the FA market.

 

[mcpickl]

Yeah, I probably made my "Kentucky players do well in the pros" a little too strongly. I think it's true, and I think Young was a bigger flop relative to his position than all of those guys, but he's not the only one that could be considered a disappointment.

MKG has to be the biggest flop on that list relative to his position. He was the 2nd pick of the draft with Beal and Lillard chosen in the next 4 picks and has never risen above role player on a blah team.

Young being a zero at the 17th pick is a flop, but compared to whiffing on the 2nd pick is just a flesh wound.

 

[the moops]

By way of comparison, Brook Lopez — not nearly as slick of a passer as Gasol, but a comparably good defender, better shooter, and four years younger — signed last offseason for the vet min. Has the market for traditional centers on the wrong side of 30 really blown up that much since then?

This is true. I do wonder if teams are going to make a correction though. Lopez has played at an All Star level this season. Perhaps teams will think "oh shit - look what happens when we can space our 5". So I think Lopez signs for a hell of a lot more next offseason after showing what he can do.

 

[lovegtm]

This is true. I do wonder if teams are going to make a correction though. Lopez has played at an All Star level this season. Perhaps teams will think "oh shit - look what happens when we can space our 5". So I think Lopez signs for a hell of a lot more next offseason after showing what he can do.

Probably depends on how he holds up in the playoffs playing in space. The Celtics abused him on pick and pop type stuff in their first meeting.

 

[moondog80]

MKG has to be the biggest flop on that list relative to his position. He was the 2nd pick of the draft with Beal and Lillard chosen in the next 4 picks and has never risen above role player on a blah team.

Young being a zero at the 17th pick is a flop, but compared to whiffing on the 2nd pick is just a flesh wound.

I get what you are saying, but I feel like MKG has been exactly as advertised: a hard nosed defender that will never be an effective scorer. In a a draft where nobody looked like a star after Davis, the Hornets went with a low ceiling/high floor guy, and that’s what they got.

 

[chilidawg]

This is true. I do wonder if teams are going to make a correction though. Lopez has played at an All Star level this season. Perhaps teams will think "oh shit - look what happens when we can space our 5". So I think Lopez signs for a hell of a lot more next offseason after showing what he can do.

12 points, 4 rebounds is All Star level? Shooting 45% from the field as a big who can't guard the perimeter? Barely starter level on a contending team.

 

[Swedgin]

12 points, 4 rebounds is All Star level? Shooting 45% from the field as a big who can't guard the perimeter? Barely starter level on a contending team.

The FG% is a red herring. Big or not, Lopez (in accord with his role in the offense) is taking over 2/3's of his field goal attempts from three, where is he is shooting 38%. He is 58% on two point attempts. His effective FG% is .577. He is an efficient player.

Lopez is a perfect fit for what Bucks need. I think its fair to ask how much his value, particularly as a defender, would translate to a different team/scheme.

 

[the moops]

Also odd to label him "barely starter level on a contender" when he is the starter on the team with the best record in the NBA.

But either way, the point was that the market severely undervalued him last year and he surely will see a substantial raise in the off-season.