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The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by Jed Zeppelin, Jul 1, 2018.

  1. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    Kings: 27-55
    Pick owed: 2019 FRP Top 1 Protected (It goes to Philly if #1, with Boston getting Philly’s FRP instead)

    Grizzlies: 22-60
    Pick owed: 2019 FRP 1-8 protected, or 1-6 in ‘20, or unprotected in ‘21

    Clippers: 40-42
    Pick owed: FRP lotto protected in 2019 or 2020

    Long live my reign of watching more bad basketball at ungodly West coast game hours than anyone else for the sake of knowing where our picks stand at any given moment.
     
    #1 Jed Zeppelin, Jul 1, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2018
  2. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    33,660
    The offseason is early yet, but here are the major moves to this point:

    Kings draft Marvin Bagley
    Grizz draft Jaren Jackson Jr
    Clippers draft SGA and Jerome Robinson, lose DeAndre to Dallas, and trade Austin Rivers to DC for Gortat

    Memphis has no cap space, LA has some, and Sacramento has enough to make at least two or three big mistakes.
     
  3. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Getting rid of Austin Rivers should be worth about 15 wins for the Clippers. I don’t think there’s much of a chance of that pick conveying this year.

    Warriors
    Rockets
    Spurs
    OKC
    Jazz
    Pelicans
    Blazers
    Wolves
    Lakers

    I count at least 9 teams in WC that should be better.
     
  4. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    33,134
    Thank you for starting this thread. An easily referred to reference is a great thing to have.

    Can you add in what happens if the Kings pick is #1? Just to have it in post 1
     
  5. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    That Clippers pick is not conveying unless they get Kawhi somehow. The question is will they be better or worse than Sacramento.

    Memphis is gonna stink, but it might be close. What will be interesting is to see whether they’d be incentivized to tank or if they’d prefer to get that pick to convey now rather than later.

    Sacramento is going to be exciting to watch. They are lagging behind a few competitors thus far in free agency, but they have plenty to spend and no incentive to tank. I think we’re looking bottom 4-6 territory, but we shall see!
     
  6. snowmanny

    snowmanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Having the 2, 9, 15 and 30 in next year's draft is going to create a roster crunch.
     
  7. Montana Fan

    Montana Fan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Think we can trade some combo of 9. 15 & 30 to get a second pick in the Top 5? :beatit:
     
  8. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    12,068
    I have not yet come up with a good way for my win projections to model tanking, but I don't see a lot of scenarios where pre-tanking the Kings aren't a bottom 3 team.
     
  9. Sox Puppet

    Sox Puppet Member SoSH Member

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    Or just offer them all to the Pels for AD ...?
     
  10. scottyno

    scottyno Member SoSH Member

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    Technically the Cs have the better of Sac or Philly 2019 picks (assuming it's not #1). Obviously it's not likely not it's not impossible philly could strike out in free agency, Embiid or Simmons gets hurt, and they end up in the lottery and pick before Sacramento.
     
  11. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    5,629
    I'm loving this, another kick to groin of Phila.
    free agency is not exactly working out for the Sixers this year:
    George - gone
    Lebron - gone

    and Kawhi fully committed to LA next season

    They can bring back Redick and Amir on expensive 1yr contracts again.
     
  12. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    I agree. My 4-6 was factoring in tanking. Sac might be bad enough to unintentionally out-tank the tankers, though.
     
  13. Pxer

    Pxer Member SoSH Member

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    Beautiful as a Celtics fan. Is Klay the only big fish next year?
     
  14. Manzivino

    Manzivino Member SoSH Member

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    Among max guys Durant, Kyrie, Kawhi, Butler, Horford all have player options; Butler’s probably the only realistic option there. Khris Middleton and Tobias Harris are next tier guys that would be interesting fits. They could also use the space to take back a bad contract along with a star which opens up a lot of options.
     
  15. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    33,660
    Kings may offer sheet Lavine. Bulls have plenty of room to match. I don’t think having or not having him would make much difference.
     
  16. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    1,225
    Tankathon has the Kings pick at 4 and Memphis conveying at 10. That seems like a pretty ideal outcome. Romeo Langford and Jontay Porter are the way too early projected picks.
     
  17. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I would gladly sign up right now for that result. Summer of 2019 will be huge for the Clips pick. No chance of them making the playoffs this year.
     
  18. the1andonly3003

    the1andonly3003 lurker

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    which they did (but less expensive than last year)
     
  19. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    58,001
  20. Bosox1528

    Bosox1528 lurker

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  21. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    I'm not trusting anyone's projections until @bowiac gives us his.
     
  22. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    Memphis and Sacramento are crossing the streams:
     
  23. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    So who does that help more, if any?
     
  24. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    lol wut? Sactown wanted McLemore back?

    I'd assume it's a win for Memphis, just cos they typically make pretty smart moves whereas the Kangz ... do not.
     
  25. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    They gave up Temple's expiring for a couple younger expirings who "maybe" could add something. Memphis saved $1m salary plus received whatever amount of cash the Kings included. I'm not a fan of any of those guys but given a choice I'd certainly take the two younger players hoping one of them makes a little leap.....we know Temple isn't going to.
     
  26. amfox1

    amfox1 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Have to think it makes it more likely that BOS will get the MEM pick next year. Gasol, Green, Anderson, Temple, Conley as starters and Parsons, JJJ, D.Brooks and Carter off the bench isn't terrible, if they can stay healthy.

    As to SAC, not sure what they are doing here. They get a future 2nd rounder, $1mm in room and two players with expiring contracts unlikely to fit into their short- or long-term plans
     
  27. Royal Reader

    Royal Reader Member SoSH Member

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    That might be a playoff team in the East. But LeBron going to the Lakers adds wins to the LAL and probably to the dregs of the East as well. What's the Grizz' ceiling? I can't see them finishing above any of last year's playoff teams nor the Lakers. There's only really the Suns and Kings I'd be confident they'll be better than. Nor do I think health is that likely. If I had to bet, I think it conveys in 2020 in the 7-10 range.
     
  28. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    How does Temple's expiring fit into their short or long term plans though? Didn't see they get a 2nd rounder too. If Sac got Memphis' 2nd for Temple that's a win in itself.

    The other thing this does, which very well may turn out to be the motivator behind this deal, clears up just enough cap space to absorb Ryan Andersons contract. I'm not sure that would be a very Smart thing to do.
     
    #28 HomeRunBaker, Jul 17, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2018
  29. amfox1

    amfox1 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The pick is only protected to 8. MEM doesn't have to make the playoffs for the pick to convey to BOS.
     
  30. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Gasol, J-3, an offseason of improvement from Dillon Brooks, and Conley returning are good for 32-36 wins and Boston nabbing Jontay Porter.
     
  31. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Depends on what Houston is willing to pay? Their ownership group seems to be making moves that are heavily luxury-tax influenced, and in the process damaging a very promising championship window. They might be more willing than most teams to give a valuable pick a few years out if Morey wants to get rid of his current financial handcuffs.

    The problem for the Celtics is that Anderson makes the Kings better, but they're so bad in the west as is that I'm not concerned.
     
  32. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    I doubt Anderson ever gets off the Kings’ bench given that all their young prospects are PFs and Cs. His value to the Kings is in future draft picks.
     
  33. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    The Grizz dropped the opener at Indy by 27.

    Kings putting up a fight early hosting Utah.

    LAC just underway.
     
  34. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Kings battled but lost to Utah by 6, Clippers also lost.
     
  35. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    we're rooting for the Clippers this year, right? Just to make the playoffs, though, so as to stay out of the lottery?
     
  36. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Yup. Likely not happening this year so more realistic option is rooting for them to get Kawhi this summer so that we can get their 2020 pick.
     
  37. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    32,241
    EDIT: I was confusing my picks. This is the one that will become a second rounder if it doesn't convey next 2 drafts--do we want it this year or next? Does it matter?
     
  38. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    If you're lucky enough to get that pick in the next 2 years, you thank your lucky stars and smile. 2019 vs. 2020 doesn't matter to me. Last night, their starting lineup was:

    Gortat
    Gallinari
    Harris
    Bradley
    Beverly

    No chance that lineup 1) stays healthy and 2) makes playoffs even if they do.
     
  39. scottyno

    scottyno Member SoSH Member

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    In an ideal world next year is probably better, spread out the picks a bit, push the future contract for the pick one year down the line, but they're pretty bad right now so I think we root for it to convey now rather than potentially not at all.
     
  40. JohnnyTheBone

    JohnnyTheBone Member SoSH Member

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    I can't see any way the Clips make the playoffs this year.
     
  41. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    That lineup is a top 3 draft pick lineup
     
  42. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    The Kings have given up 274 points in two games.
     
  43. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I really disagree with this take. The Clippers have a 10-deep veteran rotation plus a promising rookie in Gilgeous-Alexander on a very good second unit with Harrell, Boban, Mbah a Moute, and Lou Williams. I've got them in the mid-30's. The injury concerns above may be overstated as well with Gortat and Tobias being as durable of an NBA player as they come. Even if Gallo, Avery, and Beverley miss their standard 20-30 games with their depth that shouldn't force them to ever play non-NBA guys in their regular rotation.
     
  44. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Kings up 10 at OKC deep into 3rd.

    Cmon guys.
     
  45. amfox1

    amfox1 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Sacto wins by 9.
     
  46. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    They shot the lights out last night (55% overall, 46% from 3). Even a crappy team will show flashes like that.

    The concern is that De’Aaron Fox seems to have taken a huge step forward in his 2nd season. The Kings aren’t a bottom-3 team if Fox sustains this level of play all season.
     
  47. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    It's so much more than Fox's sophomore leap though. His growth is a boon to Hield and they added Bagley, a healthy Shumpert, Yogi, Bjelica, Giles is a year further removed from his ACL, and WSC continues his stready improvement. Unless they get hit with a rash of injuries this isn't a bottom-3 team. Worse than the Clippers, who I like, but much better than those bottom feeders.
     
  48. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Fox still can't shoot. They also have given up 123, 149, and 120 points. Their defense is bad.

    They are as close to a bottom 3 team as anyone, IMO
     
  49. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Maybe the discrepancy is because it seems to me that no team in the NBA is doing a "Full Process" this year, except maybe Atlanta.

    For example, ESPN has the bottom five teams right now as: ATL, SAC, CHI, CLE, and NYK.

    SI has it as CHI, SAC, ORL, NYK, and CLE.

    I don't think there's a clear-cut "favorite" for the "top" seed yet, well until CLE does something with Kevin Love.
     
  50. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    30,248
    I feel pretty comfortable putting Sac in the bottom 5 or 6, which would be fine with me given how the lottery odds have smoothed out.
     

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