This always happens. But the Sox also show no hesitation in making the necessary moves when they do. They DFA'd Jay Payton when he bitched about playing time (obligatory "why did he sign here" joke). They DFA'd Sizemore last year when it was proven he was toast. They have done this when necessary and will do so again, provided no injuries force their hands.
Red Sox Spring training thread
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
I firmly believe this (and have been a bit of a broken record on this point). Can't wait to grab him in round 20 of my fantasy draft.LogansDad said:
Well, that settles that as far as the positional roster goes.
C - Hanigan, Leon
1B - Napoli
2B - Pedroia
3B - Sandoval
SS - Bogaerts
UT - Holt
OF - Ramirez, Betts, Victorino, Craig, Nava
DH - Ortiz
Now all that's really up in the air is the bullpen and perhaps the fifth spot in the rotation.
C - Hanigan, Leon
1B - Napoli
2B - Pedroia
3B - Sandoval
SS - Bogaerts
UT - Holt
OF - Ramirez, Betts, Victorino, Craig, Nava
DH - Ortiz
Now all that's really up in the air is the bullpen and perhaps the fifth spot in the rotation.
RIrooter09 said:
Well, the other way to look at this is that you want to ensure Castillo gets plenty of ABs right away after being injured this spring and not playing a lot of ball the past few years, while at the same time trying to showcase ShaneVic for a trade before he gets injured. As much as I hope they can deal him, the reality is that the chances that Victorino remains healthy for an extended period of time given his litany of recent injuries are pretty low. In other words, Castillo likely will be in the majors soon in any event.
RIrooter09 said:
And the alternative is what? Eating $13M to intentionally kill off some of their depth?
I think we all figured before spring training started that barring injury, one of Betts or Castillo was likely ticketed for Pawtucket to start the season. Castillo's early injury and Betts scorching spring pretty much cemented this outcome.
I don't trust Victorino is going to stay whole and productive for very long, but if he does, it isn't the worst problem the team has or will have going forward.
If Victorino does stay whole and productive, he'll be traded to San Francisco or another such club within a month. This is all about maximizing assets under contract.
So if hes barely healthy enough to avoid the DL, and peppers the occasional hit here and there but is nowhere near effective?
Everyone here is saying "itll work itself out." But theyve known about the crunch all winter, have taken that approach since... and nothing has happened. And now theyre handing him the keys to the RF job where he will be entrenched. It is very easy to see a scenario where hes not good enough to draw interest, wont go on the DL, and you have an issue.
It isnt going to sink the team I guess but the plan has been a bit underwhelming to me. I also dont personally see the depth being irrevocably harmed by getting rid of him. Or trading Craig/ Nava and telling Vic hes the backup.
Everyone here is saying "itll work itself out." But theyve known about the crunch all winter, have taken that approach since... and nothing has happened. And now theyre handing him the keys to the RF job where he will be entrenched. It is very easy to see a scenario where hes not good enough to draw interest, wont go on the DL, and you have an issue.
It isnt going to sink the team I guess but the plan has been a bit underwhelming to me. I also dont personally see the depth being irrevocably harmed by getting rid of him. Or trading Craig/ Nava and telling Vic hes the backup.
JohntheBaptist said:
I doubt they could have traded Vic this winter.
Sustained underperformance is the worst possibility. It's more likely Vic will either be good or be on the DL. If Vic is underperforming and Castillo goes on a tear, something will happen - bag-o-balls trade or release. If they're both underperforming, it is what it is. If they're both performing, Vic is easily tradable. If Vic is on the DL, Castillo comes up.
They can't let him be just barely healthy enough to avoid the DL, if he's unhealthy enough to not be effective, they need to put him on the DL whether he likes it or not. And if they're not prepared to do that, then that will be the real mistake, not giving him the chance to show that he is healthy enough to be effective.
JohntheBaptist said:
The bolded is probably the most likely scenario for how this "works itself out" barring any injuries.
I don't know why there is this fear that if Victorino is "healthy" but barely treading water from a productivity stand-point that the Red Sox will just stand pat and continue to run him out there while simultaneously letting a healthy, productive Castillo languish in Pawtucket.
I'm firmly in the camp of Castillo benefiting from a month or so in AAA, though not much more than that. I don't know that he needs it, but as compared to any other veteran on the roster, I think there is some upside to it.nattysez said:
RIrooter09 said:
Is Victorino inferior to Castillo? Maybe. And maybe we won't see anything similar to the Vic we saw in 2013. But I don't think it's as black and white as you are making it out to be.
Castillo's readiness to be really good in the majors right away is really being overrated on this thread. It sounds like a Jackie Bradley spring training thread from 2013.
Castillo seems to have a lot of ability, sure, but people here are writing as if he's this proven star when he is anything but. He's barely played for two years and has 40 plate appearances in the majors. He's played like 20 games in organized baseball. He's hit well in spring training, but it's SPRING TRAINING. Castillo missed half of it, and he's faced some fringy pitching when he has played.
This is so not a problem that it's comical. Victorino is using spring training to get ready for the season, but everyone is saying he's washed up because he doesn't look good yet. How about waiting until the games actually count before writing him off? Meanwhile Castillo goes to AAA to get steady playing time and can show what he can do over a longer period of time. That is a good thing, not a problem.
Castillo's projections for this year:
Depth Charts: .727 OPS
Steamer: .742 OPS
Zips: .714 OPS
Victorino:
Depth Charts: .717 OPS
Steamer: .723 OPS
Zips: .710 OPS
Those are pretty similar projections. Both should likely be solid players this year, but both have real question marks. It would make no sense to dump one of them when you can keep control of both of them. Either one could crater, so the smartest thing to do is keep both of them.
Castillo seems to have a lot of ability, sure, but people here are writing as if he's this proven star when he is anything but. He's barely played for two years and has 40 plate appearances in the majors. He's played like 20 games in organized baseball. He's hit well in spring training, but it's SPRING TRAINING. Castillo missed half of it, and he's faced some fringy pitching when he has played.
This is so not a problem that it's comical. Victorino is using spring training to get ready for the season, but everyone is saying he's washed up because he doesn't look good yet. How about waiting until the games actually count before writing him off? Meanwhile Castillo goes to AAA to get steady playing time and can show what he can do over a longer period of time. That is a good thing, not a problem.
Castillo's projections for this year:
Depth Charts: .727 OPS
Steamer: .742 OPS
Zips: .714 OPS
Victorino:
Depth Charts: .717 OPS
Steamer: .723 OPS
Zips: .710 OPS
Those are pretty similar projections. Both should likely be solid players this year, but both have real question marks. It would make no sense to dump one of them when you can keep control of both of them. Either one could crater, so the smartest thing to do is keep both of them.
Rovin Romine said:
This is how I feel.
Most of the potential outcomes here are easily "solved". Vic gets hurt, no problem. Vic plays well and Castillo plays well, we can trade him. Vic underperforms or plays badly and Castillo plays well, the 72 mil boy is getting his shot. Vic plays well and Castillo underperforms, well he won the job. Vic underperforms and Castillo underperforms... do we care that much?
Its going to take a very nuanced scenario for the situation to be a problem - Vic being bad but not being quite bad enough to overcome his vet status and Castillo not quite good enough. And even then, we're talking about 1) two players who's mean outcome is reasonably high in the absolute and 2) the 7-hole in the lineup, possibly 8th if X finds his groove this year.
I would like to see the shiny new toy out there but I have a hard time being annoyed with the FA's decision. This team has much bigger problems.
Red(s)HawksFan said:
I don't know that this fear is all that misplaced. The veteran loyalty factor has already sent Castillo to AAA; this is Baseball, and managers have been known to run players out there for a long time, because they were veterans, and in the hope that they'd "turn it around" (Sizemore last year, Tito with Bellhorn, etc.) - and yes, in many cases (but certainly not all), the managers often lacked an obviously superior alternative. But it's not outlandish to see the veteran loyalty thing dragging on to June at least. What are the scenarios here really (outside of an injury, etc.)?
1)If Vic does well, Rusney stays down. I don't see a trade here early on really, unless a team gets a bad injury. That's too much salary to take on.
2)The team is struggling out of the gate, Vic is treading water, Rusney is doing well. They bring up Rusney.
3)The team is doing well, Vic is treading water, Rusney is doing well. Rusney stays down.
So there are plausible scenarios that have Rusney down even if Vic is struggling.
With all that said, I'm in the camp of those who think Victorino will break down and go on the DL within a month. What will be interesting to see is whether Vic goes all out during the regular season, or keeps holding back the way he seemingly has been in Spring training to avoid getting injured.
I don't see how you can give castillo the starting job based on a few at bats against guys battling for end of bullpen jobs and or guys bound for the minors. Victorino shouldn't lose his job because of injury in 2014.
April is always the real shakedown cruise. If Vic sucks he'll know and his veteran teammates will know. Plus it is probably not going to kill castillo to get a few weeks at bats in cold weather (which he has never experienced) against AAA pitchers who are trying to establish themselves as first replacements on MLB clubs. Plus the competition with JBJ will probably help both.
April is always the real shakedown cruise. If Vic sucks he'll know and his veteran teammates will know. Plus it is probably not going to kill castillo to get a few weeks at bats in cold weather (which he has never experienced) against AAA pitchers who are trying to establish themselves as first replacements on MLB clubs. Plus the competition with JBJ will probably help both.
All great points. I certainly get "why," but I just want to see the younger, dynamic, in-his-prime guy getting glowing reviews from everyone he's worked with and tangible results in his small sample of MLB ABs over the broken down veteran coming off back surgery publicly clutching onto his lineup spot like grim death who looks ticketed for a season of mediocrity. Bunch of assumptions there too, though, so fair is fair.
It will definitely work itself out, and I'd be shocked if Castillo isn't up soon--the principle of the idea just annoys me. It's been a long winter and I want to see the best players play, I suppose. Again though, all great points in response.
It will definitely work itself out, and I'd be shocked if Castillo isn't up soon--the principle of the idea just annoys me. It's been a long winter and I want to see the best players play, I suppose. Again though, all great points in response.
Snoop Soxy Dogg said:
The Sox are already over the lux tax threshold for 2014. There's no reason they couldn't fully subsidize Vic and get prospects back.
Also, if Vic is playing well, he's worth his contract. If we're in the Vic and Castillo are both good box, that scenario makes Vic a 2nd-3rd OF on a lot of teams. (Actually, I suppose the nightmare/worst case scenario is that Vic does OK, is traded, Castillo stumbles at the MLB level, and Vic heats up for his new team.)
Abraham piece on Victorino today.
There's a bunch of "people have short memories" stuff in there from Vic, but it's mostly harmless. I guess, since it's four days till opening day, I'm not quite as impressed as he and Farrell think I should be by the fact that Victorino is actually sprinting to first and is starting to be "fully capable" and has proven he can play three days in a row.
Isn't that the bare minimum. What of that argues "ready to be the starting rightfielder" on opening day?
There's a bunch of "people have short memories" stuff in there from Vic, but it's mostly harmless. I guess, since it's four days till opening day, I'm not quite as impressed as he and Farrell think I should be by the fact that Victorino is actually sprinting to first and is starting to be "fully capable" and has proven he can play three days in a row.
Isn't that the bare minimum. What of that argues "ready to be the starting rightfielder" on opening day?
Doctor G said:
1) Of course you wouldn't do that. You would give Castillo the starting job based on a consensus of coaches and other baseball ops observers that Castillo is the better player by a large enough margin to offset his inexperience. Does such a consensus exist? I have no clue. But of course such a decision would never be about spring training stats. If it were to happen it would be about the judgment of experienced observers.
2) No, Victorino shouldn't lose his job because of injury in 2014. He should lose his job because he's not the best player available for it in 2015--if that is true.
In all fairness, Castillo has to prove that he can get over the hump of opposing major league pitchers fucking around with him after they learn his weaknesses. I'd bet that he does, but that breakthrough hasn't been made yet (I keep thinking of the much younger Bogaerts).
There's no doubt that Castillo is a starting outfielder in 2016, and that he deserves ab's this year...but if Victorino's on his game - I'd like to see what odds the experts would propose comparing the relative value of the 2 players this season. I'm not certain anyone would bet the house on Castillo out-performing a healthy Victorino...the car, maybe...but not the house.
There's no doubt that Castillo is a starting outfielder in 2016, and that he deserves ab's this year...but if Victorino's on his game - I'd like to see what odds the experts would propose comparing the relative value of the 2 players this season. I'm not certain anyone would bet the house on Castillo out-performing a healthy Victorino...the car, maybe...but not the house.
geoduck no quahog said:
My concerns about Vic start with his health, but beyond that, I'm not sure he can hit RHP anymore. He managed it in a tiny sample after he stopped switch hitting in '13, but a full 1/4 of his times on base were HBP — not really sustainable.
Without the HBP-aided 2013, this graph looks pretty dire.
I'm glad to hear that they are getting heated up to Robbie Ross; this team needs a bullpen ace, and he pitched like one before Texas tried to turn him into a starting pitcher.
On Victorino, there's a lot of calls to give him 3 weeks of at bats and then decide whether or not to pull the plug. This is baseball. He could start the season 4 for 46 and then end the year with his typical slash line of .280 / .330 / . 390; just as you shouldn't make decisions based on September or spring training stats, you shouldn't make decisions based on baseball played in 30 degree temperatures over 3 weeks in April. If they feel Victorino is better than Castillo now, they should really continue to hold that view well through Memorial Day. Victorino certainly deserves more rope than they gave Sizemore last year, though they gave Sizemore too much.
On Victorino, there's a lot of calls to give him 3 weeks of at bats and then decide whether or not to pull the plug. This is baseball. He could start the season 4 for 46 and then end the year with his typical slash line of .280 / .330 / . 390; just as you shouldn't make decisions based on September or spring training stats, you shouldn't make decisions based on baseball played in 30 degree temperatures over 3 weeks in April. If they feel Victorino is better than Castillo now, they should really continue to hold that view well through Memorial Day. Victorino certainly deserves more rope than they gave Sizemore last year, though they gave Sizemore too much.
The following is childish and probably irrational. I don't know that I would act on this necessarily, but following the Red Sox OF situation, generally, and keeping a hopeful and watchful eye on Castillo since we signed him, and throughout his somewhat abbreviated spring, as well as keeping up with Victorino's (probably over blown but still kind of annoying) comments over the last month, it's not hard to imagine myself in the stands in Fenway having a very short fuse with Shane struggling much at all in the opening couple of weeks.
Because, fair or not, accurate or not, the shiny object Castillo playing in Pawtucket while Shane's passive-aggressive hissy fits (this is me being childish and irrational) result in him getting p-time despite being even SLIGHTLY less production would bug the shit out of me. That's part of the problem here, too, albeit maybe a minor one: We've got this flashy, exciting new asset that we really want to see play and what's keeping us from doing so is the gimpy old vet who gets sore and now can't switch-hit anymore. I'm already sick of Victorino and I KNOW I'm being kind of a little baby about everything because "I just want to see that whirling dervish from Cuba play."
Because, fair or not, accurate or not, the shiny object Castillo playing in Pawtucket while Shane's passive-aggressive hissy fits (this is me being childish and irrational) result in him getting p-time despite being even SLIGHTLY less production would bug the shit out of me. That's part of the problem here, too, albeit maybe a minor one: We've got this flashy, exciting new asset that we really want to see play and what's keeping us from doing so is the gimpy old vet who gets sore and now can't switch-hit anymore. I'm already sick of Victorino and I KNOW I'm being kind of a little baby about everything because "I just want to see that whirling dervish from Cuba play."
GordonEdes Gordon Edes
Prediction: Red Sox will trade Jackie Bradley Jr. at some point this season. I hope he finds his place in the game. His defense? Mercy.
Prediction: Red Sox will trade Jackie Bradley Jr. at some point this season. I hope he finds his place in the game. His defense? Mercy.
E5 Yaz said:
Unless someone is willing to give up an ace for him I don't really get why the Sox would do this.
I assume you mean as part of a package right? Even if JBJ remembers how to hit I can't see him bringing back an ace pitcher.TomRicardo said:
If he remembers how to hit I could very much see him being the centerpiece of a package for a rental. The Rays took Drew Smyly, Nick Franklin, and a low level lottery ticket for a year and 2 months of David Price. The Red Sox were willing to trade 2 months of Jon Lester for a year and two months of Yoenis Cespedes. A team that has the same SABRmetric appreciation of defense as the Red Sox will value 5 years of a Jackie Bradley who remembered how to hit much more highly than a year and two months of Yoenis Cespedes.NickEsasky said:
But first, we need to see if he remembered how to hit against AAA pitchers during the regular season, not pitchers who enter during the last 4 innings of spring training games.
I'd hate to see them deal JBJ (unless it was for an ACE rental or high caliber relief pitcher i.e. Davis, Kimbrel). It would be a 'selling low' trade,Rudy Pemberton said:
Hanley could move to 1st or DH in the next year or could get injured, opening up a spot in the OF.
If JBJ finds comfort in working with Chili and starts hitting at the AAA level he becomes an extremely valuable CF, plus we still don't know if Betts in CF is Mookie's best position.
3 months to a year at AAA for JBJ to see if he can hit and at worse become our 4th OFer in '16 (we do need LH hitters besides Nava) is a good position to be in.
E5 Yaz said:
Rudy Pemberton said:
Rudy Pemberton said:
I don't see them trading JBJ yet, and I believe he'll rebound at the plate this year -- not to all-world stud levels, but certainly good enough to hold down an everyday MLB #8 or #9 lineup spot without being an automatic out. And I believe we'll be marveling at a ridiculous Castillo-Betts-Bradley outfield in 2016.
benhogan said:
Bingo.
Rudy Pemberton said:
Castillo and Betts are rookies (more or less). Hanley has an injury history, is playing his first pro season in the OF, and is a likely candidate for 3B/1B/DH in case of something catastrophic (Sandoval injury). Given the foot injury, Craig may well also be more suited for a 1B/DH role, with the occasional OF appearance. I'm a Nava fan, but he's best as a platoon guy who gives at best average RF/LF defense. Vic is gone after this season.
JBJ is a 24 YO "generational level" defender that the Sox control for 4? more years. If he gets his bat into the league average category, he may displace Hanley (say to OF/DH next year) on his own merits.
It's way too early to talk about trading JBJ for anything less than a truly excellent return. I doubt there's a "log jam" by mid season. If there is, and everyone is playing well, we can revisit. Besides, after JBJ, who do we have on the farm?
Hanley and/or Panda will also likely be moving into Ortiz' spot when he hangs them up. There is plenty of room in the outfield opening up in the next few years.
Rovin Romine said:
Brentz is only other OF on the 40-man at the moment. Digging deeper into the system, there's Margot, who is easily 2-3 years off. And of course Moncada could end up in the outfield as well.
I see the Red Sox current outfield depth as a short-term thing. Between Victorino, Napoli, and Ortiz, there could be up to three roster spots freed up as soon as next season, any of which give an opening for JBJ.
Rudy Pemberton said:
After watching Hanley's shaky defense last night in LF, JBJ might well have a role. If he hits like he did previously in the minors, the Sox will have their best defensive outfield since before WWI if JBJ is flanked out there by Betts and Castillo. Napoli looks like he is about to have a beast of a season and Big Papi doesn't look done yet either. However, it is foreseeable, based on just budget concerns, that younger H. Ramirez and Craig might end up as the 1B and DH of the future. Significant injuries to Ramirez, Craig, Ortiz and Napoli have occurred already in their careers, are foreseeable in the near future and are probably inevitable. A DH-1B combination of the younger Craig (if he proves he has bounced back) and Ramirez will cost about the same (maybe a little less) than Napoli and Ortiz together. Ortiz and Napoli already had their careers extended into and past their mid-30's in these positions. It is arguable that the sunken costs of Craig and Ramirez are better bets in those roles going forward.
MLB stars recite James Earl Jones' epic "baseball" speech from "Field of Dreams"
http://m.mlb.com/video/v60085883/mlb-players-recite-famous-field-of-dreams-speech
http://m.mlb.com/video/v60085883/mlb-players-recite-famous-field-of-dreams-speech
JohntheBaptist said:
There are really three options as things play out:
1) Vic is healthy and performs really well
2) Vic is healthy and performs less than really well
3) Vic is not healthy
I think the best case scenario is clearly #1. In that case he either adds a lot of value to our team, or instead is tradable based on Castillo/Craig being able to do that job better.
If #2 happens and Castillo or Craig can contribute more, Vic will need to get benched/dumped at some point. Farrell will give him plenty of healthy rope though, so that wouldn't play out very quickly.
If #3 happens as everyone seems to think is a forgone conclusion, then we get a callup without controversy, and give Castillo the chance to prove the job should be his, and that he shouldn't be sent down when Vic is again healthy.
But also remember that because of Betts at 2B, Hanley at SS/3B/1B, etc, Castillo can realistically be the callup for ANY non-catcher DL, which unfortunately isn't that unlikely at all.
While there aren't any clock starting issues to consider, Castillo spending a month or two tearing up AAA isn't the end of the world for him and certainly offers greater flexibility to the organization's asset management.
Savin Hillbilly said:
I think the now presented possibility that such a consensus does not indeed exist, on already 27 year old player, is what's pulling at me the most in my dislike of this decision atm.
In overall hindsight it's just striking me as a curious approach to investing our money/resources when you consider the current state of our pitching staff (as a whole too) that's about to break camp.
Nick Cafardo @nickcafardo 5s5 seconds agoFlorida, USA
Koji Uehara and Joe Kelly on DL but could be eligible by April 11
Koji Uehara and Joe Kelly on DL but could be eligible by April 11
Nick Cafardo @nickcafardo 6s6 seconds agoGateway, FL
Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes optioned to Pawtucket. Barnes as a starter. Workman as a reliever.
Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes optioned to Pawtucket. Barnes as a starter. Workman as a reliever.
Nick Cafardo @nickcafardo 7s7 seconds agoGateway, FL
Three lefties make bullpen - Ross, Layne and Breslow.
Three lefties make bullpen - Ross, Layne and Breslow.
MikeM said:
Which part is curious? The signing of Castillo? Let's keep in mind that he was signed in August before a) Betts emerged as a strong candidate to be a starting outfielder in 2015, b) Hanley came to the Red Sox offering to play LF for less than he was projected to command in free agency, and c) there was any clarity as far as whether Victorino would ever play again after back surgery. Hell, they entered spring training unsure of both a) and c).
And I don't think Castillo's contract had any impact whatsoever on what they have spent on pitching.